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Blue Jays Extend Randal Grichuk

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8:20pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that there are some escalators in the contract as well. Grichuk’s 2023 salary would jump by $1MM if he makes a combined 1200 plate appearances from 2021-22. It’ll increase by $1.5MM if Grichuk makes 1250 PAs over that same time period and by $2MM if he tallies 1300 PAs between those two seasons.

6:12pm: The Blue Jays and outfielder Randal Grichuk are in agreement on a five-year contract worth a guaranteed $52MM, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. Toronto announced the extension shortly after that report. The deal increases Grichuk’s current salary from $5MM to $7MM and pays him a $5MM signing bonus as well. The 27-year-old will then earn $12MM in 2020 before scaling back to a $9.333MM annual salary from 2021-23. Grichuk is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Randal Grichuk | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In all, Grichuk is securing a additional four years and $47MM in guaranteed money with the new arrangement. And while it’s impossible to know precisely what he’d have earned in his final season of arbitration eligibility in 2020, the $5MM base at which he was slated to play this season provides a reasonable window into what he might’ve earned.

If we put down a theoretical $3MM raise for what would’ve been Grichuk’s final arb year, the Blue Jays are effectively valuing his trio of free-agent seasons at about $39MM — a rough contract template that has been common among free agents in recent years (e.g. Jay Bruce, Zack Cozart, Mark Trumbo, Daniel Murphy pre-2016).

Grichuk would’ve been a free agent upon conclusion of his age-28 campaign in 2020 but will instead be signed through his age-31 season. He’ll presumably take over as Toronto’s primary center fielder for the next half decade now that the Jays have traded Kevin Pillar to the Giants (though he’s certainly capable of playing a corner as well). Other potential long-term pieces in the Toronto outfield include Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford.

As a career .247/.297/.490 hitter, Grichuk may not immediately stand out as an extension candidate, but the Jays feel they have reason to be optimistic regarding his long-term value. Grichuk has a strong defensive track record according to each of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average, and he belted a career-best 25 home runs in just 462 plate appearances last season. Statcast ranks his sprint speed in the 88th percentile of active players, so Toronto surely feels that while Grichuk may never be an on-base threat, he’ll provide quality defense and plenty of power over the next five seasons.

That said, the deal carries more risk than some of the other extensions we’ve seen for players with less service time. Grichuk’s walk rate has hovered between 5.8 percent and 6.3 percent in each of his full MLB seasons, and his strikeout rate has never dipped lower than last year’s 26.4 percent. It’s possible that that mark was a prelude to future improvement, but it’s also worth noting that the improved contact rate didn’t necessarily lead to improved contact all the time; Grichuk popped up at a career-high rate in 2018, which largely counteracted the dropoff in strikeouts.

Unless he can find a way to boost his on-base percentage into league-average territory, Grichuk will have less margin for error with regards to his power and defensive proficiency. A step back in either of those categories at any point over the five-year deal would make it difficult for him to provide adequate value. Similarly, because his on-base skills lag well below the league average, his ceiling is curbed to the point that it’s difficult to envision this contract looking like a true bargain at any point.

The approximately $13MM rate at which this contract appears to value Grichuk’s would-be free-agent seasons has been the going rate for players older than him for awhile now. In addition to Bruce, Josh Reddick, Shane Victorino, Chase Headley and A.J. Pollock were all valued in that range on an annual basis on their own free-agent deals. It seems like the Blue Jays believe Grichuk to be capable of elevating his value beyond that $13MM price point in the coming two seasons, otherwise they wouldn’t have felt it necessary to commit this far in advance. If he can continue to barrel 14.4 percent of the balls he puts in play (as measured by Statcast), perhaps that is indeed the case.

However, the possibility also exists that the Blue Jays paid market prices for a player whose earning power isn’t likely to increase dramatically, and did so two seasons before they’d have been contractually forced to make the call. Having already made a trade to acquire Grichuk from the Cardinals, the Ross Atkins/Mark Shapiro-led Toronto front office clearly believes in the player, and today’s extension underscores that faith.

Grichuk’s contract, remarkably, is the 26th extension of the calendar year and the 25th that buys out what would have been free-agent seasons for the player signing the pact. He’ll now join Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as the only player on the Blue Jays’ roster who is guaranteed any money beyond the 2019 season. The Jays have as much payroll flexibility as anyone in the game moving forward, and the manner in which they leverage that advantage will help to determine how quickly they’re able to return to contention in a stacked American League East division.

Daniel Murphy Out At Least A Month With Fractured Finger

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April 2: Murphy will miss “at least” a month, manager Bud Black tells Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). The Rockies are still awaiting an official second opinion on the injury.

April 1: Murphy has indeed been placed on the IL, with Pat Valaika called up to take his spot on the active roster. The team announced the injury as an avulsion fracture.

March 30, 10:00pm: There’s concern within the team that Murphy may have tendon or ligament damage, per Groke; if true, Murphy could miss “several weeks,” Groke writes (subscription required).

8:42pm: Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy has suffered a fractured left index finger, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets. Murphy will see a specialist Monday, but he’s likely on his way to the 10-day injured list.

The 33-year-old Murphy incurred the injury Friday, marring a win over the Marlins and a 2-0 start for the Rockies. He sat out their loss to Miami on Saturday, when Ryan McMahon took the helm at first base. McMahon and Mark Reynolds could see the lion’s share of time at first as the Rockies await Murphy’s return. As of now, there’s no timetable for a comeback, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com.

Murphy is just a couple games into his tenure with the Rockies, who signed him to a two-year, $24MM contract over the winter. It was otherwise a quiet offseason for Colorado, which is counting on Murphy – formerly of the Mets, Nationals and Cubs – to offer a significant upgrade at first. Rockies first basemen finished the 2018 season second to last in the majors in fWAR (minus-1.9) and hit a horrid .224/.295/.388, owing to poor performances from McMahon, now-center fielder Ian Desmond and Pat Valaika. Murphy batted a respectable .299/.336/.454 in 351 PAs, on the other hand, and has provided consistently above-average offensive production throughout his career. That has been especially true since a breakout showing with the Mets in the 2015 postseason.

Francisco Lindor Out Until At Least Late April

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The Indians don’t expect to have star shortstop Francisco Lindor back until at least the end of April, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti revealed in a radio appearance on WTAM 1100 this afternoon (Twitter link via WKYC-TV’s Nick Camino). Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets that Lindor has been diagnosed with a “mild” high left ankle sprain and won’t resume running for another week to 10 days. The Indians are expected to provide a more concrete timetable on Lindor’s return as soon as tomorrow, Hoynes noted earlier.

Lindor’s injury troubles began in February when the team announced that a calf strain would shelve him for seven to nine weeks, thus putting his availability for Opening Day in jeopardy. The 25-year-old appeared to have a chance to return on the low end of that timetable, but the team announced just prior to Opening Day that Lindor had incurred a new ankle injury in a baserunning mishap during a game on March 26.

The absence of Lindor, one of baseball’s premier all-around talents, is a brutal blow to an Indians lineup that has looked punchless thus far in the young season. Cleveland opened the 2019 campaign with Eric Stamets and Brad Miller lined up in the middle infield, Roberto Perez behind the plate and bounceback hopeful Hanley Ramirez at designated hitter.

Cleveland still has the dangerous Jose Ramirez near the top of the batting order, but they’ve struck out at a 32.6 percent clip as a team and plated just 10 runs through their first four games. Obviously, that’s a microscopic sample and not cause for panic, but the lack of proven bats around the diamond for the Indians is nevertheless glaring. With Lindor sidelined, they’ll need some combination of Jake Bauers, Tyler Naquin, Carlos Santana and the elder Ramirez to step up in the middle portion of the order. It’s possible that longtime Rockies slugger Carlos Gonzalez, currently with the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate, could also emerge as a candidate to join the big league roster.

Offensive question marks aside, Cleveland’s brilliant rotation and a generally weak division should still keep the club in the playoff mix. Cleveland is also fortunate to face a light schedule this month, with the only matchups against expected contenders coming in the form of a three-game set against the Braves from April 19-21 and a four-game set in Houston from April 25-28. Beyond those two series, the Indians will face the Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Mariners and Marlins this month.

Braves Extend Ronald Acuna

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3:34pm: The Braves have formally announced the extension.

Acuna will earn $1MM in both 2019 and 2020, $5MM in 2021, $15MM in 2022 and $17MM annually from 2023-26, Heyman tweets. There’s a $10MM buyout on his first $17MM option for the 2027 season.

11:27am: In an exclamation point on a spring full of extensions, the Braves are finalizing a $100MM deal with elite youngster Ronald Acuna, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links). The eight-year contract comes with two option years, priced at $17MM apiece with a $10MM buyout, per the report. Acuna is represented by Alex Salazar of Gatemore Sports & Entertainment.

The agreement will begin with the present season, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’ll therefore run through at least the 2026 season, with options for the 2027 and 2028 campaigns. Acuna, who entered the current campaign at 21 years of age and with 159 days of MLB service, was on track to qualify for arbitration in 2021 (as a Super Two) and reach free agency after the 2024 campaign. Accordingly, the new deal guarantees two would-be free-agent campaigns and gives the Atlanta organization control over two more.

Acuna won the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award last season at twenty years of age. The multi-dimensional young star launched 26 home runs and slashed .293/.366/.552 in 487 plate appearances. He also swiped 16 bags and is considered a quality outfield defender, making him one of the highest-upside players in all of baseball.

Taking this sort of financial security is understandable for a player who didn’t secure a large bonus and still was several years removed from arbitration. But it took a massive bite out of his potential earning power as a professional ballplayer. Acuna will now be under team control through his age-30 season, with the deal maxing out at $124MM if both options are exercised.

There’s obviously very real risk in any deal of this magnitude, but the contract is laden with upside for the Atlanta organization. Excellent young players always deliver huge surplus value during the earlier portion of their careers, when they’re earning relative peanuts; that’s the nature of the system. But locking up Acuna now also delivers the potential for the gravy train to continue into the future.

Acuna might reasonably have anticipated something in the range of $50MM in arbitration earnings, with potential for more if he enjoys good health. If he keeps anything like his current pace, he’d have been in line for a monstrous free-agent contract in advance of his age-27 season. Instead, the Braves now have control over four more of Acuna’s mid-prime seasons — campaigns that could otherwise have been sold to the highest bidder at prices we can’t really even foresee at this point in time.

Unsurprisingly, given his excellence, Acuna has commanded a larger guarantee than the few other players who’ve done deals this early in their careers. Eloy Jimenez just received a $43MM promise from the White Sox, more than any sub-1.000 service player, before making his debut. The Acuna deal blows that guarantee out of the water. That was inevitable: Acuna has much greater upside as an all-around performer, has already established himself in the majors, and is still younger than Jimenez.

But it’s fair to ask whether Acuna’s contract structure is really preferable to that of Jimenez. If both of their contracts are maxed out through options, the former will have earned $124MM over ten years and sacrificed four free-agent seasons, while the latter will have received $75MM for eight years but will in effect have given up only one open-market campaign (as we explained in the post on his signing). What the Braves were willing to do obviously isn’t known, but Acuna might have been better served to have sought a lesser guarantee (with Jimenez as a presumptive floor) that secured his financial future while leaving more future free-agent seasons available to work with in the long run.

There was never really any doubt that Acuna was a central part of the Braves’ long-term plans, but that’s now all the more clear. The club will hope that Acuna functions as an affordable superstar for the decade to come, keeping open a lengthy contention window.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Royals Acquire Andrew Susac

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The Royals have acquired backstop Andrew Susac from the Orioles, per a club announcement. Cash considerations are heading to Baltimore in return.

Susac, 29, was dropped from the 40-man roster earlier this year and failed to crack the Baltimore roster in camp. He has seen minimal MLB action in the past several seasons and accumulated just three hundred total plate appearances in five seasons of action.

With several other options available at Triple-A, the O’s obviously felt they could part with the depth. Susac will give the Royals some experience at their top affiliate. He’ll also provide organizational depth, though he’s out of options and therefore cannot be shuttled up and down with ease.

Rockies Place Jake McGee On Injured List

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The Rockies have placed lefty Jake McGee on the 10-day injured list, Nick Groke of The Athletic was among those to tweet. He’ll be replaced by Carlos Estevez on the active roster.

McGee, 32, has been diagnosed with a left knee sprain. He has had some difficulties in that joint in the past, including a 2015 procedure to resolve a torn meniscus. The severity and anticipated timeline are not yet known.

This is the latest concerning bit of news for a Rockies relief unit that has not performed up to the level of investment that it took to compile it. McGee is one of several veteran hurlers who has struggled on a long-term deal; in his case, he’s just starting the second season of a three-year, $27MM pact after limping to a 6.49 ERA in 51 1/3 innings last year.

There have been some positive signs for McGee, who had three strikeouts through his first two outings of the regular season after carrying a 9:2 K/BB ratio in seven frames this spring. But he also coughed up nine earned runs on a dozen hits (including two home runs) in Cactus League action.

Now, McGee will need to get back to health before he’s able to resume his quest to get back on track on the hill. He joins fellow southpaw Chris Rusin on the injured list, leaving Mike Dunn and Harrison Musgrave as the left-side options for Colorado skipper Bud Black.

Blue Jays Acquire Socrates Brito

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The Blue Jays have acquired outfielder Socrates Brito from the Padres, according to a club announcement. Outfielder Rodrigo Orozco goes to San Diego in return.

There’s quite a bit of change afoot in the Toronto outfield mix. The club shipped Kevin Pillar out earlier today. Anthony Alford is on his way up, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). And to create 40-man space for the latest moves, the Jays shifted Dalton Pompey to the 60-day injured list.

Brito will give the Jays a left-handed-hitting, defensive-oriented option in center. He could pair there with Randal Grichuk, who seems likely to slide into the opening created by the departure of Pillar.

It was never really clear what the San Diego organization had in mind with regard to Brito, but it seems they nabbed him off waivers with an eye to flipping him. They’ll be rewarded for their efforts with Orozco, who turns 24 today and hasn’t yet played above the High-A level. The switch-hitter posted a .304/.375/.389 slash with forty walks and 53 strikeouts in 424 plate appearances last year. He also swiped 18 bags.

Giants Acquire Kevin Pillar From Blue Jays In Four-Player Swap

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The Giants and Blue Jays have announced a trade that will send outfielder Kevin Pillar to San Francisco. Heading back to Toronto in return are righty Derek Law, recently designated infielder Alen Hanson, and righty Juan De Paula.

The Giants designated outfielder Michael Reed to create roster space. He joins both Law and Hanson as recent 40-man roster casualties. Law had already been outrighted prior to this move, while Hanson was still in DFA limbo.

It’s not immediately clear how the Giants will line up in the outfield. Youngster Steven Duggar is likely in line for most of the time in center, but Pillar would offer a platoon match there — the former hits from the left side, the latter from the right — and could also spend time in the corners. He was obviously preferred to the untested Reed, who was added to the mix via late in camp.

Pillar, 30, has some pop but struggles in the on-base department. He’s a lifetime .260/.297/.396 hitter, but has been better (100 wRC+) against left-handed pitching. Pillar’s appeal lies in his glovework and baserunning. While metrics dimmed on his overall defensive work last year, Pillar has a history of outstanding work up the middle and has one of the game’s most impressive highlight reels on the outfield grass. He could end up being moved at the deadline, kept as a one-year fill-in piece, or kept for 2020 via arbitration (his final season of control).

For the Jays, Pillar simply wasn’t part of the long-term plans. This transaction is the latest that clears out roster space and sheds some payroll. The club could have held onto Pillar in hopes that he’d turn in a quality first half and become a mid-season trade chip, but will instead drop his $5.8MM salary and open the door for Anthony Alford to get a shot at the majors.

The Toronto organization does pick up a few potentially helpful roster assets in Law and Hanson. The former had a nice 2016 debut but has struggled since. Law will be available as a depth relief piece if a need arises. Hanson, 26, was a major contributor least year in San Francisco but faded down the stretch. He could take up a utility role, though the Jays have several such players on the roster already.

But the only player with notable potential future value is De Paula, a 21-year-old who has had some success in the minors. He reached the Class A level last year, making one start there. Over 233 innings in parts of four seasons in the low minors, he carries a 2.47 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

De Paula originally came to the Giants last year in the swap that sent Andrew McCutchen to the Yankees. As JJ Cooper of Baseball America notes on Twitter, he has now been swapped three times already in his still-nascent career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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