Looking to return to relevance and break their five-year playoff drought in 2019, the Reds operated aggressively on the trade market during the offseason. The club swung multiple noteworthy deals, including a swap with the Dodgers in which they netted outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp and left-hander Alex Wood. So far, though, that trade hasn’t delivered the on-field value the Reds wanted. They released Kemp in early May after he got off to a miserable start, while Wood hasn’t taken the field at all because of a back injury. That leaves Puig, who was perhaps the Reds’ biggest acquisition of the offseason. To this point, however, the 28-year-old has been a bust in Cincinnati.
Having signed a seven-year, $42MM contract with the Dodgers back in 2012, when he left Cuba for the majors, Puig already cashed in once earlier in his career. Although Puig was inconsistent in LA, he lived up to his pact as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he slashed .279/.353/.478 (129 wRC+) and totaled 108 home runs, 60 steals and 16.7 fWAR over 2,765 plate appearances from 2013-18.
The Reds were surely expecting Dodgers-esque production from Puig, but instead, he has managed a terrible .212/.256/.385 line with 11 HRs in 242 trips to the plate. His 63 wRC+ is eighth worst among 170 hitters who have amassed at least 200 PA.
Unfortunately for Puig and the Reds, his massive downturn in offensive production isn’t simply a byproduct of bad luck. Sure, Puig’s measly .230 batting average on balls in play is likely to climb, and his weighted on-base average (.270) sits far below his expected wOBA (.312). Nevertheless, Puig ranks around the middle or lower half of the league in xwOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. The right-hander’s also walking at a career-worst rate, striking out more than ever, chasing way more pitches outside the zone, not making nearly enough contact and, for the first time, getting stymied by same-handed pitchers. Relative to last season (heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2018, 2019), righties have been operating less in the middle of the plate against Puig, who hasn’t been able to come up with an answer.
When Puig has put the bat on the ball this season, the majority of his connections have ended up in the air. However, while many players have benefited from elevating the ball more, the opposite has been true for Puig. He’s racking up far more flies and far fewer grounders than he ever has, but that isn’t a great approach if you’re not hitting the ball with authority. Puig’s exit velocity on flies and line drives has fallen from 93.7 mph to 91.7 since last year, while his mean FB distance has dropped from 328 feet to 316.
It’s clear Puig’s offensive game is suddenly rife with red flags, though he has remained a capable defender and base runner in Cincinnati. Since his MLB career began, Puig has logged 44 Defensive Runs Saved with a 12.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, including four and 1.3 in those categories as a right fielder this season. Meanwhile, even though his sprint speed has decreased, Puig has swiped nine bases on 11 attempts.
Although it’s nice that Puig can flash the leather and run the bases, his ability to produce at the plate has been his calling card thus far. And if Puig doesn’t rebound in that aspect soon, it’s going to further drive his trade value into the ground as the July 31 deadline approaches. Worsening matters for Puig, it could make it difficult for him to secure anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal upon reaching the open market in the winter. With Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and perhaps Kole Calhoun also among corner outfielders set to hit free agency, Puig will have serious competition off what could go down as a nightmarish platform season for him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Has Puig put on weight? He looks heftier in that photo than he did as a Dodger.
He’s bigger now than he was back in 2013/2014, but those were his age-22 and 23 seasons. He filled out a bit more over the years, but hasn’t lost much in the way of sprint speed. Per statcast, he is only 0.6 ft/sec slower than he was in 2015, and is still an above average runner.
He will have a team sign him, but not for the money he wants
Maybe he should stop licking his bat and try to put a good swing on a ball instead.
Puig is not going to be a franchise type player or team leader. I could see him thriving in Houston, New York or Boston this year.
His production is a representation of the lineup he was in for 5 years. He has all the tools just cant put them together and its even more so visible on a bad team.
Has to be frustrating to be a Reds fan to go make a trade like they did. To get any value out of it they needed these players to at least put out normal production this year and instead they have been dumpster fires except Wood who simply seems to be made out of papier mache.
believe it or not, jettisoning Bailey was worth it
Still a good deal IMO because we don’t have to watch Bailey flounder start after start…
Puig is going to be massively disappointed in free agency. Will be lucky to even get 2 years
Agreed. He’s prob looking at 2 years 12 mil
All these stats are giving me a headache.
This was always going to be an interesting case. Part of the resurgence of Puig in 17 & 18, he was no longer being relied upon as a focal point of the offense. He found success being a support piece, while living lower in the lineup. The counting numbers had fans kicking and screaming when he was traded, but realistic expectations were he sort of is what he is, a good player who could be very very electric with occasional head scratching moments. It was somewhat surprising to see Puig in the top half of the Reds lineup earlier in the year. All in all, it’ll be interesting to follow. He can still help someone in a playoff run, but probably not worth a QO and probably not worth much at TDL.
He is locker room cancer. Ask the dodgers. Head case. Not worth putting up with the BS…especially when he is in the batting tank. Cincinnati became the LA toxic waste dump….shameful.
The Reds got just about exactly what I expected from these acquisitions. Maybe a little less from Puig and a little more for Gray. But Kemp hasn’t been good for some time. Short resurgence if wanna call it that but he was done. Gray was a risk with actual upside though and he’s been good. But up until that deal I laughed at the starting rotation “upgrades”. Roark was simply just an innings eater at the back end of the Nats rotation moved to sign an actual difference maker in Corbin. Then Alex Wood who had a good season in 2017 but so valuable he was a left handed starter the Dodgers left off the 2018 post season roster. Not even carried for match ups. So much needed to go perfect and they still could’ve finished fourth in the central. Much like the Orioles until last season just holding onto hope when there is none watching the value of your sellable assets lose more and more value. At a time where there are three teams in absolute win now mode light years ahead of you why not start now and time your rebuild so your window opens just at the right time
? You are Nostradamus? Everyone expected Wood to be injured for half the season at lest. Most people knew Kemp would crack his rib. OK lets be honest, most all of Reds fans were not expecting much from Kemp, he was an add on so the dodgers could free up luxury tax money. Out of the 3 pitchers acquired Wood had the best track record, and has been the only true disappointment. Roark and Gray have been as billed, solid middle of the rotation guys. The Wild Horse is always a wild card. I was hoping in his final year of his contract, that he would be better focused.
I am certainly no Wall Street authority, but that said, I would advise any would be purchasers to avoid investing one’s nest egg in the Red’s outfielder.
You guys will all think that I am crazy, but I predict that the Reds will overpay and make Yasiel a qualifying offer and he will take it. Puig will be a one-year bridge to Trammell. No one will offer Puig even that much. Look at what Adam Jones received. Puig only gets more because his defense is still plus and he helps sell tickets. Obviously, the QO is off the table if there is a team that offers a good prospect for Puig then whoosh Reds take it.
Gennett will get signed by Reds for two years and $22 million until India is ready to take over unless Gennett goes back to being a 27 hr guy in which case maybe he stays around longer.
Only one of their top 8-10 minor leaguers is playing well and that’s Siri. I don’t disagree with a two year deal for Gennett because of that…but he has to swing the bat when he comes back for that to happen.