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Poll: Are Yankees AL Favorites?

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We’re still a month and a half from the July 31 trade deadline, but the arms race has already begun in the American League. The Yankees, one of the AL’s premier teams, pulled off a stunning move Saturday in acquiring prolific slugger Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners for young pitching prospect Juan Then. Including the 21 home runs he has already racked up this season, no major leaguer has hit more HRs than Encarnacion’s 284 dating back to his 2012 breakout with the Blue Jays.

It’s clear the Yankees are trying to construct a super lineup, and it’s likely that’s what they’ll have when injured star outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return from their long absences in the coming weeks. A full-strength Yankees lineup will include Encarnacion at designated hitter, Judge in right field, Stanton in left, Aaron Hicks in center, Gary Sanchez at catcher, Luke Voit at first, Gleyber Torres at second, Didi Gregorius at short and DJ LeMahieu at third. If you’re an opposing pitcher set to face that lineup, you may hope for a torrential downpour.

On the other hand, the Yankees’ starting staff looks far from foolproof, as noted earlier this week. Injured ace Luis Severino should be in position to finally make his season debut after the All-Star break. Even if that happens, the Yankees will need slumping second and third starters James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka to right themselves. The club also has to find answers behind those two, as Domingo German (now injured), CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ haven’t been able to provide any of late. Don’t be surprised if general manager Brian Cashman, after acquiring Encarnacion, makes another significant trade for starting pitching as a result.

The Yankees’ bullpen, meanwhile, doesn’t need a lot of help. Their relief corps hasn’t matched some of the “best ever” talk that was out there entering the season, but it remains a strength. And the group will become all the more formidable if Dellin Betances, yet another injured standout, returns sometime in the summer. Betances, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman forming Voltron at the end of games would certainly make life easier on the Yankees’ rotation, regardless of whether the team adds a starter from outside.

At 42-27, the Yankees don’t carry the AL’s best record – not by a long shot. Both Minnesota and Houston are five games ahead of the Yankees, and the Astros have a few of their own cornerstones mending from injuries in Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa.

Let’s also not discount two of the Yankees’ division rivals, Tampa Bay and reigning World Series champion Boston. The Rays are just a half-game behind the Yankees and, for what it’s worth, own a far better run differential (plus-96 to plus-65). Furthermore, they could get back an important in-season reinforcement in budding ace Tyler Glasnow, out since May with a forearm strain, as early as next month.

The Red Sox don’t look as if they’ll approach last year’s 108-win outburst, and they have 5 1/2 games to make up on the Yankees. However, the sleeping giant in Boston may finally be waking up, having won four in a row. The Sox also own a plus-47 run differential that’s not quite befitting of their 38-34 record, and they’re another team with an injured starter (Nathan Eovaldi) who may return soon to complete its rotation.

Considering the presences of the Twins, Astros, Rays and Red Sox – not to mention a few other playoff contenders – the Yankees have their work cut out for them if they’re going to earn their first pennant since 2009. Plus, any or all of those teams could bolster themselves by the deadline. The Yankees, though, have managed one of the game’s top records thus far without many (or any) contributions from Encarnacion, Judge, Stanton – three players about to grace their lineup on a daily basis – and may see Severino and Betances return. With that in mind, is New York the favorite in the AL?

(Poll link for app users)

Cubs Considering Promoting Adbert Alzolay

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With Kyle Hendricks on the injured list, the Cubs may deploy a trio of pitchers to fill Hendricks’ starts during what the team hopes will be a relatively brief injury absence for the right-hander.  As president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told reporters (including the Chicago Sun-Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer) that the team was planning to use spot starters to give their veteran arms extra days of rest.  Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery could be two of the pitchers filling in, though the third could be pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay.

“Alzolay is on a real roll at Triple-A, and we’d been planning even before this to possibly give him a couple of spot starts at some point over the next month or so,” Epstein said.  “Just to get his feet wet and also give our veteran rotation guys a little bit of a breather during a stretch in the schedule where we don’t have a lot of off days.”

Alzolay, 24, has a 3.09 ERA over 32 innings for Triple-A Iowa this season, with a stunning 12.9 K/9 and 7.67 K/BB rate.  His only real flaw is a 1.1 HR/9, which stems from “extreme flyball tendencies,” as per his MLB.com scouting report.  Despite some issues with the long ball, Alzolay is given credit for having a plus curveball and a plus fastball that sits in the 92-96mph range.

Though Alzolay has promise and has been at or near the top of the Cubs’ prospect charts for a couple of years, this could be more due to the fact that Chicago has promoted or dealt away many of their recent top minor leaguers.  In overall prospect rankings, only Baseball Prospectus placed Alzolay in its preseason top-100 (sitting 95th), while Alzolay has yet to crack even the updated midseason versions of the MLB.com or Baseball America top 100, while Fangraphs has Alzolay outside of their top 125.  Still, an injury-shortened 2018 season could account for his lack of notice, as a lat problem limited Alzolay to only eight starts last season.

It doesn’t seem as if Alzolay, if he is promoted, will necessarily be in line for an extended stint in his big league debut.  Hendricks and Yu Darvish, however, are the only Cubs starters on guaranteed deals beyond the 2020 season, so a solid first impression could certainly put Alzolay in line for an extended look possibly as early as next season, depending on what happens with Cole Hamels’ free agency.

Yankees Acquire Edwin Encarnacion

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11:49pm: The trade has been officially announced by both teams.  Jake Barrett was moved to the Yankees’ 60-day IL to make a 40-man roster spot for Encarnacion.

7:50pm: The Yankees have acquired first baseman/DH Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Right-handed pitching prospect Juan Then is headed to the M’s in the trade, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that Then is the only player being acquired in exchange for Encarnacion.

According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), the two teams are “essentially splitting the money” owed to Encarnacion for the remainder of his contract.  The slugger has roughly $9.25MM left on the $20MM owed to him this season, after accounting for the $5MM being covered by the Rays as per the terms of the three-team trade that brought Encarnacion to Seattle from Cleveland back in December.  Encarnacion also has a $5MM buyout of a $20MM club option for the 2020 season.

The Yankees had a projected luxury tax number of slightly over $227.6MM prior to the trade, as estimated by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.  The addition of Encarnacion will all but guarantee that New York exceeds the second-highest luxury tax threshold ($226MM), though it still keeps them below the maximum penalty threshold of $246MM, as Joel Sherman tweets that Encarnacion’s luxury tax hit is a modest $3.4MM.  Should the Yankees exceed that $246MM figure, they’d be taxed at a 62.5 percent surcharge on the overage of every dollar beyond $206MM, plus their top draft pick in 2020 would be dropped by ten slots.

All in all, it’s a more than reasonable price for the Yankees to pay to add the American League’s leading home run hitter to their lineup.  After going through a bit of a down year by his standards in 2018 (though still producing a 115 wRC+), the 36-year-old Encarnacion was back in top form in Seattle, with a .241/.356/.531 slash line and 21 homers over 289 plate appearances.  Depending on how things go over the rest of the season, it’s also quite possible that the Yankees could pick up Encarnacion’s option for 2020, making him more than just a rental player.

With Encarnacion now in the fold to share first base and DH duties with Luke Voit, the Yankees have further boosted their already-strong lineup to near-Murderer’s Row levels when everyone is healthy.  Encarnacion now joins an everyday mix that will include Voit, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez, not to mention Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, and Gio Urshela available off the bench.  With this much depth on hand, it increases the chance that Frazier (who isn’t far removed from top-50 prospect status) could potentially become an expendable piece to acquire starting pitching at the deadline.

Encarnacion’s revived production only made him more of a trade chip for a Mariners team that continues to drastically overhaul its roster, and is willing to absorb salary to accommodate these trades.  Daniel Vogelbach has already emerged as an everyday first baseman/DH in Seattle, leaving the Mariners free to deploy Ryon Healy in the other slot when he returns from the IL, or the M’s can rotate multiple players through the DH role to keep everyone fresh.

Mariners fans may question the relative lack of a return for a decorated slugger like Encarnacion, though as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently examined, the veteran’s market was relatively slim.  He wasn’t really an ideal fit for everyday first base duty, which eliminated most NL teams, and even the American League market was relatively limited simply because there aren’t many teams still in realistic playoff contention.  Adding Encarnacion might have put the Red Sox over the maximum tax threshold for the second straight year, though for the Astros and even the small-payroll Rays, they could regret not topping the relatively small amount of money and prospect capital it apparently would’ve cost to pry Encarnacion away from a Mariners club that was open to offers.

Then, 19, is a familiar name for Mariners fans, as Seattle originally signed Then as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2016.  The Yankees acquired Then in November 2017 as part of the deal that sent Nick Rumbelow to the M’s, and MLB.com ranked Then as the 27th-best prospect in New York’s farm system.  Then has yet to pitch this season, but has a 2.67 ERA, 3.77 K/BB rate, and 7.9 K/9 over his first 111 1/3 innings as a professional.  According to MLB.com’s scouting report, Then doesn’t have a true plus pitch but “has a high floor” because of strong fastball command, a promising curveball, and “a changeup that’s advanced for his age.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Notes: Gallo, Pitching, Gardewine, Petricka

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The latest out of Arlington…

  • Joey Gallo will start game-simulation workouts on Monday with the hope of being back from his oblique strain as early as next weekend, though the team will surely be as cautious as possible with the star slugger.  With Gallo on the verge of a return and Willie Calhoun even closer to completing his own injured list stint, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com both address how the Rangers will handle this incoming glut of outfield/DH possibilities.  Gallo had largely been playing center field at the time of his injury, but since the defensively-superior Delino DeShields has been hitting well in Gallo’s absence, manager Chris Woodward made it clear that “if DeShields is on the team, Delino will play center.”  This leaves Sullivan thinking that Gallo will play in left field when he returns, though such a deployment would mean one of Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo, or Nomar Mazara would have to sit every day, as the other two players would handle right field and DH duties.  Grant notes that Gallo would be slotted in at first base since Ronald Guzman is optionable and isn’t hitting particularly well, though Woodward has hinted that he would prefer not to switch Gallo back to first base (his former position) in midseason.
  • “We’ve probably pursued every starting pitching depth option out there,” Rangers assistant GM Shiraz Rehman told reporters, including Grant and Sullivan.  “We’ve talked with a lot of clubs, but they are concerned about their depth, too. They need pitchers, also.”  Aside from Mike Minor’s ace-like performance and some solid work from Lance Lynn, the Rangers haven’t received much out of their rotation this season beyond some decent (but likely unsustainable) efforts from Adrian Sampson and Ariel Jurado, leaving Texas looking for controllable starting help as they both look ahead to their long-term plans while seeing if the team can stay afloat in the wild card race this season.  Grant suggested that the Marlins’ Hector Noesi and the Giants’ Ty Blach could fit what the Rangers are looking for in the short term — experienced pitchers throwing at Triple-A, and potentially acquirable from teams that aren’t in the pennant race, and thus more apt to let such veterans go to a team that would offer them a Major League opportunity.
  • One familiar arm could be back in the pitching mix, as Rehman said that the team is trying to re-sign Nick Gardewine after releasing the right-hander earlier this week.  Gardewine has spent much of the season on the Triple-A injured list, and thus couldn’t be put through outright waivers after being designated for assignment, hence his release to create a 40-man roster spot.  Gardewine has a 3.71 ERA, 3.12 K/BB rate, and 8.8 K/9 over 323 innings in the minors, plus 13 innings for the Rangers over the 2017-18 seasons.
  • The recently-acquired Jake Petricka has been on the Rangers’ radar for a while, as Sullivan reports that the team was interesting in signing the right-hander to a minor league deal during the offseason.  Petricka instead opted for a split contract with the Brewers, and appeared in six games for Milwaukee in April before being outrighted off the team’s 40-man roster.

Noah Syndergaard Leaves Game Due To Hamstring Strain

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Mets ace Noah Syndergaard left tonight’s start due to a right hamstring strain, the team announced.  The injury took place during the seventh inning, as Syndergaard came up limping after a play that saw the Cardinals’ Yairo Munoz steal second base.  The right-hander was immediately removed from the game after a visit from the trainer.  An IL stint seems likely, since the description of the injury as a strain (as noted by Newsday’s Tim Healey) indicates a certain amount of severity.

Syndergaard hasn’t quite pitched up to his usual ace-like levels in 2019, with only a 4.45 ERA over 95 innings for New York.  ERA indicators (3.56 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA) are a bit more impressed by his performance, though overall, Syndergaard’s K/9, home run rate, swinging-strike rate, and hard-hit ball rate have all gone in the wrong direction from his 2018 numbers.  That said, most of Syndergaard’s problems took place during a rough April, and he has since largely gotten on track over his last nine outings.

If and when Syndergaard misses time, the Mets don’t have much in the way of starting pitching options to fill the void.  Wilmer Font or Chris Flexen could be again stretched out, veteran Ervin Santana is down at Single-A building up arm strength, while rookie Walker Lockett is perhaps the best healthy option at Triple-A.

In the big picture, an extended absence for Syndergaard might also push the Mets to turn towards selling prior to the trade deadline.  New York entered tonight’s action with a 33-36 record, 7.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East and five games behind the Cubs and Phillies in the wild card race.  Two days ago, GM Brodie Van Wagenen was still expressing confidence that his team could remain in the postseason hunt, and while there’s still a lot of baseball to be played before July 31, the Mets could start exploring the market now for potential takers for some of their veteran assets.

Ronald Guzman Switches Agencies

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Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman has changed agencies and is now being represented by the Boras Corporation, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports.  As Grant notes, Guzman becomes the latest in a notable line of Boras clients on the Texas roster, including Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus, and Shin-Soo Choo.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a teenager in 2011, Guzman has spent his entire pro career in the Rangers organization, steadily developing until a strong 2017 season earned him a spot (94th) on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the game’s top 100 prospects prior to the 2018 campaign.  After making his big league debut last season, Guzman has shown hint of his left-handed power but below-average (87 wRC+, 88 OPS+) production and a 28.4% strikeout rate overall, hitting .230/.301/.423 with 22 homers over 574 plate appearances for Texas.  Earlier this season, Guzman spent just over a month on the injured list due to a hamstring injury.

Guzman is still just 24 and controllable through at least the 2023 season, and the Rangers could gain an extra year of control (and avoid Guzman gaining Super Two status) by optioning the first baseman back to Triple-A at some point.  He won’t gain arbitration eligibility until after the 2020 season and, at this point, doesn’t appear to be a realistic extension candidate for a Rangers team that is heavy on left-handed bats and first base/DH types.

Guzman’s change in representation can be viewed in MLBTR’s Agency Database. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Pirates Sign Darnell Sweeney To Minors Contract

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The Pirates have signed utilityman Darnell Sweeney to a minor league contract, John Dreker of Pirates Prospects reports.  Sweeney will report to the Bucs’ Triple-A affiliate.

Sweeney appeared in two games with the Blue Jays last season, which marked his first taste of Major League action since debuting as a big leaguer with a 37-game stint for the Phillies in 2015.  The 28-year-old has a .172/.294/.345 slash line to show for his 102 career plate appearances in the Show, though he has a significantly better .267/.339/.412 career mark over 3302 minor league PA for four different organizations.  After being let go into free agency by the Jays last winter, Sweeney signed on with the Kansas City T-Bones of the independent American Association.

Sweeney has played mostly as an outfielder at the big league level, though he has amassed quite a bit of second base, shortstop, and third base experience in the minors.  This extra versatility will be helpful in earning a spot on the Pirates’ roster, as Pittsburgh is already dealing with a glut of outfielders (barring a trade, of course).

MLB Draft Signings: 6/15/19

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Here’s a look at the game’s latest noteworthy draft signings, with the newest moves at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500, Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law….

Latest Signings

  • The Red Sox inked second-rounder Cameron Cannon, as per a team press release.  MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo first reported the Cannon signing earlier this week, and MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Cannon will receive a $1.3MM bonus, which is lower than the $1,729,800 slot price attached to the 43rd overall pick.  It should be noted that Cannon was Boston’s first pick of the 2019 draft, as their initial draft spot was dropped ten places as punishment for exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM.  Fangraphs had the highest projection on Cannon, ranking him 48th on their list of draft’s top prospects and describing the high schooler as an “infielder with approach and strong bat-to-ball skills,” with a potential for more power if he changes his swing.
  • The Royals have a deal with second-round pick Brady McConnell, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (Twitter link).  The 44th overall pick has a slot price of $1,689,500, though Kansas City went well over that figure in signing McConnell to a $2,222,450 bonus.  Ranked as the 39th-best prospect in the draft by MLB.com, their scouting report on McConnell citing his speed, contact ability, and “the chance for future average power.”  While McConnell was drafted as a shortstop, his future could be at second base or potentially even in center field.
  • Two teams made significant signings beyond the 10th round that will have hefty impacts on their draft bonus pools, as every post-10th round draft pick who signs for more than $125K will have the extra money counted against the pool.  The Braves signed 13th-round pick Tyler Owens to a $547.5K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports that the Cardinals have signed 14th-rounder Tyler Statler to a $300K bonus.  Both Owens and Statler are right-handed pitchers out of high school, who had respectively committed to attend Florida and Southeast Missouri State.

Earlier Today

  • Pirates supplemental first-round pick Sammy Siani has signed an above-slot deal worth $2.15MM, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. The recommended slot value for Siani’s pick (No. 37) was $1.99MM. Siani’s a Pennsylvania-based high school outfielder who may have “a little Andrew Benintendi in him,” per Callis and MLB.com colleague Jonathan Mayo, who give rave reviews to his left-handed swing.
  • Braves second-rounder Beau Philip (No. 60) has signed a below-slot deal for $700K, Mayo tweets. He’d have earned $1,157,400 at full value. Philip barely cracked MLB.com’s Top 200 entering the draft, coming in at No. 195. The Oregon State shortstop should be able to stay at the position, write Callis and Mayo, who laud his athleticism and bat speed.
  • The Indians have signed second-round choice Yordys Valdes for $1MM, according to Callis. The slot value for his pick, No. 63, was $1,076,300. Valdes is a switch-hitting, contact-making high school shortstop from Florida. Third-rounder Joe Naranjo – the 101st pick – also signed, but he landed an above-slot deal worth $770K ($577K slot). The California-based high school first baseman boasts “one of the best prep bats” in his draft class, Callis relays.
  • The Astros announced the signing of second-rounder Grae Kessinger, a shortstop from Ole Miss. The 68th overall pick, Kessinger received $750K – down from a $953K slot value. Kessinger may move into a second base/utility role in the pros, Callis and Mayo write. Houston also signed fourth-rounder Colin Barber to a deal worth well above slot, Callis relays. Barber, the 136th pick ($410K slot value), received $1MM. The California high schooler and former Oregon commit profiles as a hard-hitting right fielder, Callis writes.
  • Rangers fourth-rounder Cody Freeman (No. 115) has signed for $900K – significantly more than his $502K slot value – Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Freeman, yet another California high schooler, had committed to Baylor. Baseball America notes Freeman has “premium instincts” and offers a “well-rounded” package.

Dick Williams On The Reds’ Deadline Approach

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The 30-37 Reds sit tied for last in the talent-rich NL Central, but the team’s white flag still hangs far from full mast, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores. President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams, who embarked on a full-scale rental shopping spree last offseason, acquiring Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, the now-departed Matt Kemp, and Tanner Roark in win-now moves intended to revitalize a listless fanbase, explained his reasoning in a series of quotes for the piece.

“Our only focus right now is to get the most out of these guys, win and improve the roster where we can,” Williams said. “Right now, we’ve got Wood and Gennett as planned additions to the team. That’s two pretty good boosts. We still feel like this is very much an upwards trajectory. The potential is there for this team, this group of guys.”

Though it’s certainly conceivable that Scooter Gennett and Alex Wood, each still at least two weeks away from returning, with the latter perhaps closer to a month or more, could be the catalysts to jumpstart a sputtering Cincinnati club into gear and overcome the team’s long playoff odds (3.5%, per FanGraphs’ latest estimate), the rational outlook has the team entering preparations to sell, a fact of which Williams is surely aware. “There will be decisions to be made,” Williams noted, with the hard-to-ignore subtext hovering.

Puig, Wood, and Gennett entered the season as the team’s three most obvious trade chips, should the team’s course head south, though none of the trio now figures to net the return Cincy was surely banking on. Puig has endured easily the worst season of his career to this point, slashing just .222/.264/.393 (66 wRC+) while flashing little of his trademark ball-hawking in right field. Though Wood’s injury isn’t of the elbow, forearm, or shoulder variety, his history in that area is checkered, and contenders are unlikely to offer much for a rental mid-rotation starter just a week or so back from a three-month stint on the IL. Gennett’s value suffers from the same malaise as does Wood’s, though second-base offense around the league has slumped a bit this year, and his left-side thump may be just the plug a team with a gaping hole at the keystone needs.

Roark has thus far been excellent for the club, striking out batters at a career-best rate en route to a sterling 1.6 fWAR in 13 early-season starts. Deeper peripheral marks are unconvinced, though, as Roark’s 7.0% HR/FB is easily the lowest of his career, and his typically-high grounder rate has plummeted to far below league-average depths at 33.5%. His mid-to-back-end track record, too, likely won’t have teams champing at the bit to get a piece, especially with just two-plus months remaining on his deal at the time of a prospective deal.

The best course of action, then, may be for the Reds to consider perhaps-discounted extensions with at least a few of their free-agents-to-be. “We’re getting to that point where at least you want to put it on the table and start to see if there is mutual interest,” Williams said, while taking care to note that there’s “no urgency” on that front. Cincinnati did gift another offseason acquisition, Sonny Gray, with a longer-team deal of his own after he’d just finished the worst season of his career, so it’s possible this back-hatch pivot was a part of the Reds’ blueprint all along.

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