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Archives for June 2019

Rockies Release Jorge De La Rosa

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The Rockies have released veteran left-hander Jorge De La Rosa, Thomas Harding of MLB.com relays (Andersen Pickard of MLB Daily Dish first reported the news). De La Rosa had been with the club since it signed him to a minor league pact April 5, his 38th birthday, though an oblique injury prevented him from taking the mound.

This unceremoniously ends De La Rosa’s second go-around as a member of the Colorado organization, with which he has spent the majority of his career. The Rockies first acquired De La Rosa from the Royals in a 2008 trade, and he went on to become one of the most successful starters in franchise history. From 2008-16, an 1,141 1/3-inning span, De La Rosa overcame hitter-friendly Coors Field to post a 4.35 ERA/4.24 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 3.79 BB/9 and a 48.1 percent groundball rate.

After his first Rockies stint ended, De La Rosa joined the Diamondbacks in 2017, lasting one-plus season in Arizona’s bullpen before the team released him last August. De La Rosa quickly caught on with the Cubs and pitched well in relief with them, though his performance didn’t persuade Chicago or any other team to give him a guaranteed deal last offseason. Between the D-backs and Cubs over the previous two years, he combined for a 3.77 ERA/4.47 FIP with typical strikeout, walk and groundball numbers (7.71 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 48.2 GB%).

The Yankees’ Rotation Looks Like A Problem

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Although the Yankees haven’t gotten an inning from injured ace Luis Severino this year, their rotation has done a decent job weathering his absence to this point. As of this writing, the Yankees’ starting staff ranks 10th in the majors in K/BB ratio, 12th in ERA and 13th in fWAR, and has helped the injury-laden club to a 41-26 start and a half-game lead in the American League East. While most of the unit’s numbers are passable in the aggregate, it’s just 19th in the game in FIP and has begun faltering of late.

Without Severino, who’s out for at least another month because of a lat strain, left-hander James Paxton stands out as the Yankees’ No. 1 starter. The former Mariner got off to a white-hot start this year before going to the injured list May 5 with a left knee issue. Paxton hasn’t been good since then, having allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits and seven walks (with 12 strikeouts) in 11 1/3 innings, though he still boasts strong numbers on the season. The 30-year-old’s not worth worrying about from the Yankees’ perspective if he’s healthy, but as someone who has never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in a season, it’s anyone’s guess whether Paxton will hold up into the fall.

Like Paxton, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka is someone whose rotation spot is etched in stone. But Tanaka has also declined of late, in part because his signature splitter hasn’t been up to par in 2019. That said, considering Tanaka owns a 3.58 ERA/4.01 FIP in 83 innings this year, his presence is hardly a detriment to New York’s rotation.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, solutions are harder to find after Paxton and Tanaka. Domingo German, who stepped into the Yankees’ rotation to replace Severino, looked like a breakout star through mid-May. The 26-year-old has come crashing down since then, though, and has been on the IL since June 9 with a left hip flexor strain. German has logged an ugly 5.74 ERA/5.25 FIP over his most recent five starts, despite his 11.14 K/9 against 1.69 BB/9 during that 26 2/3-inning span. Beyond that, it’s worth noting German is already nearing his innings total from all of 2018, having tossed 70 (24 fewer than last year), and has never reached 125 in a professional season.

Worsening the Yankees’ situation, aging lefties J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia have each fallen short of expectations this season. Happ, whom the Yankees re-signed to a two-year, $34MM contract over the winter, has managed a 4.66 ERA/5.34 FIP through 75 1/3 frames. According to Baseball Savant, the 36-year-old Happ’s hard-hit rate against has risen by almost 8 percent since last season, while his strikeout rate has fallen by nearly 7 percent.

The soon-to-retire Sabathia, meanwhile, isn’t having the final season he or the Yankees envisioned. The potential Hall of Famer has pitched to a playable 4.42 ERA, yet his 5.98 FIP is unsightly, and he has only completed six innings on two occasions. Moreover, Sabathia’s groundball rate is 6.5 percent below his career mark, which has helped lead to a massive increase in home runs against. Sabathia yielded homers on 11.7 percent of fly balls in 2018, but the number has climbed to 20.8 this season. While Sabathia reinvented himself over the previous couple seasons as a soft-contact specialist, hitters have increased their hard-hit rate against him by better than 5 percent since a year ago.

Barring outside acquisitions, it appears the suddenly slumping Yankees are stuck with their current alignment of starters for the time being. Along with Severino and German, the Yankees are missing Jordan Montgomery (out for the year because of Tommy John surgery) and Jonathan Loaisiga (strained shoulder). Those injuries have depleted the Yankees’ depth, which has left them to deploy reliever Chad Green as an opener to underwhelming results.

In positive news for the Yankees, Severino’s as good a reinforcement as you could possibly land during the season. On paper, he’d form a more-than-capable trio with Paxton and Tanaka. It would be risky to expect Severino to immediately return in top form, though, meaning it would behoove the club to add at least one new starter before the July 31 trade deadline. It seems fair to expect any of Madison Bumgarner, Matthew Boyd or Marcus Stroman to end up in a Yankees uniform by then. Acquiring one of those three could make the difference in the Yankees holding off the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East or having to overcome a one-game playoff for the third straight season. The way the Yankees’ current starters are trending, it’s going to be difficult to keep their rivals at bay even as injured stars come back on the offensive side.

Report: Padres Would Need “Overwhelming Offer” To Trade Kirby Yates

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The Padres may be readying to listen on most of their position players, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be anxious to move their most appealing pitching assets. Indeed, the San Diego organization would require “an overwhelming offer” in order to part with emergent relief ace Kirby Yates, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.

It’s hardly surprising to hear this stance emerge at this stage of the proceedings. The Friars are still hanging in the Wild Card picture, for one thing. Even if it has mostly resolved to deal, there’s little reason for the organization to enter a period of negotiation by hanging an OBO on one of its best trade pieces.

The Padres’ leverage here is aided by the fact that Yates isn’t an asset that must be cashed in just yet. He’s earning only $3,062,000 this year and has another season of arb control remaining. Even if the Padres decide to move him, it doesn’t have to happen in the next six weeks.

San Diego GM A.J. Preller has dealt with a situation like this in the past, with interesting results. The Friars held onto Brad Hand at the 2017 deadline, when he was among the top trade candidates, then locked him into a high-value extension. The club ultimately spun Hand off via trade in the ensuing summer. The situation isn’t quite on all fours with this one. Hand was a season further from free agency than Yates will be this winter; the Pads are also closer to dedicated contention than they were at that time. Regardless, the takeaway is that there are options here beyond a summer trade.

Yates has been every bit as impressive as Hand from an on-field perspective. Much like his former teammate, Yates took some time to find his way. But he has not stopped improving since landing in San Diego. The 32-year-old currently owns an absurd 0.96 ERA with 15.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 28 innings. Yates has yet to allow a home run this season.

At some point, someone will put the ball over the fence against Yates. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression coming. On the other hand, Statcast actually feels he has been a bit unfortunate to post a .216 wOBA, crediting him with a ridiculous .210 xwOBA based upon the quality (or lack thereof) of contact against him.

With a cheap salary and remaining arb control, Yates would be a monster trade chip for the Padres. It’s hard to imagine that Preller won’t at least see what he can get. And he’ll surely be realistic about the team’s chances of even making a spirited Wild Card run. At the same time, the organization has already proven it’ll push some chips toward the present with major free agent signings and the Opening Day promotion of Fernando Tatis. It’s possible to imagine a number of different plausible outcomes when it comes to Yates and the Padres.

Mets To Sign First-Round Pick Brett Baty

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JUNE 14: The deal will be announced tomorrow, Healey tweets. Baty receives $3.9MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), thus leaving the Mets some added room to work with.

JUNE 11: Mets first-round pick Brett Baty will take a physical and sign a deal with the club this weekend, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Financial details aren’t known yet, but as the 12th overall selection, Baty’s pick comes with a recommended slot value of $4,366,400.

The 19-year-old Baty is a high school third baseman from Texas who entered the draft as a consensus top 20 prospect. FanGraphs was highest on the now-former University of Texas commit going into the draft, ranking him eighth. Baseball America had Baty at No. 15, while ESPN’s Keith Law and MLB.com placed him 17th.

Although there are concerns about Baty’s age and whether he’ll stick at third base, all of those outlets think a great deal of his power potential and general offensive upside. FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen compare Baty to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman, a first-round pick in 2018 who’s one of the majors’ best prospects.

The Overlooked Pirate

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Andrew McCutchen was the face of the franchise during his time with the Pirates, one of their best players ever, but it became obvious a couple years back they’d have to trade him. Entering 2018, McCutchen’s final year of team control, the low-budget Pirates knew they weren’t going to extend the outfielder. Consequently, Pittsburgh traded McCutchen to San Francisco for two prospects – right-hander Kyle Crick and outfielder Bryan Reynolds – as well as $500K in international bonus pool space. Crick debuted first with the Pirates and has been a quality piece of their bullpen, but Reynolds has been even an more impressive major leaguer thus far.

Reynolds was a 2016 second-round pick of the Giants who ranked among their top five prospects when they traded him for McCutchen. At the time, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said of Reynolds: “Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense. We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”

That sounds right up to now. Since the Pirates promoted Reynolds to their roster April 20, the 24-year-old has slashed a tremendous .354/.407/.563 (157 wRC+) with five home runs in 171 plate appearances. As a member of the Pirates’ outfield, he has accounted for three Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-0.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 335 innings divided between left and center. The package has been worth 1.7 fWAR, making Reynolds one of the most valuable first-year players in baseball. If not for Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., there would be far more NL Rookie of the Year buzz centering on Reynolds.

Many a rookie has fizzled after a blazing start, though, so it’s worth checking into the odds of Reynolds continuing to post above-average production going forward. The switch-hitting Reynolds was a .312/.373/.472 batter in 1,217 minor league plate appearances, which augurs well, though all but 57 of those attempts came in Double-A ball or lower. Reynolds always ran high batting averages on balls in play in the minors, but his .439 BABIP as a Pirate flat-out isn’t going to sustain itself. It ranks first in the league among those who have totaled at least 170 PA this year. Reynolds is on pace to accrue upward of 400 trips to the plate this season. Of hitters who amassed at least that many a year ago, no one put up a BABIP better than .375.

Going solely by BABIP, Reynolds’ production is going to fall. Reynolds also appears unlikely to keep up his .210 isolated power, considering it never rose above .188 during extended looks in the minors (and that occurred during a low-A stint in 2010). He’s also hitting the plurality of batted balls on the ground, which doesn’t bode well for power. That said, all hope isn’t lost for Reynolds. According to Statcast, Reynolds ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected slugging percentage (.439; 53rd percentile), weighted-on base average (.347; 62nd percentile), average exit velocity (90.1 mph; 69th percentile), sprint speed (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (47.4; 88th percentile) and expected batting average (.300; 92nd percentile).

So, while Reynolds’ .412 weighted on-base average ranks 14th in the league and puts him a few points above Nolan Arenado, he’s not that good. Reynolds’ xwOBA sits 55 points lower than his xwOBA, though it still places him a point or two above household names such as Alex Gordon, DJ LeMahieu and Jose Altuve. Like LeMahieu, Reynolds walks at a slightly below-average clip (7.5 percent). Meanwhile, Reynolds’ strikeout percentage (22.2) is a tad above average. Combining the two numbers makes Reynolds an average performer in terms of K/BB ratio. And the fact that Reynolds hasn’t yet shown any vulnerability from either side of the plate only makes him a more appealing offensive piece.

Reynolds’ bottom-line production through almost two months of his major league career paint him as a budding star. A peek under the hood suggests he’s not there yet, but Reynolds does look like a legitimate building block for the Pirates. He and Crick are amounting to a nice return for one year of control over McCutchen, whom the Pirates weren’t going to bring back. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team that doesn’t appear to have made out that well in sending Gerrit Cole, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow away in other key trades dating back to January 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Place Heath Hembree On IL

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The Red Sox announced this evening that reliever Heath Hembree is going on the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with a “right elbow extensor strain.”

It had been hoped that the injury wouldn’t force an IL stint, but evidently Hembree is going to need a bit of time on ice to let things heal up. Lefty Josh Taylor will take the open roster spot but won’t be able to step into Hembree’s important setup role.

Hembree has been a key stabilizing force in a Boston bullpen that has had some difficulties at times. He’s through 28 2/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball thus far on the year.

While his peripherals don’t quite support those results, Hembree is a solid performer by most measures. He owns 11.0 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. Hembree’s swinging-strike rate sits at 14+% for the third-straight season. So long as he can keep the ball in the yard — the extreme flyball pitcher is allowing 1.26 per nine on a 9.5% HR/FB rate to this point — he ought to be a quality piece.

If Hembree just needs a brief respite, this doesn’t figure to pose much of a problem. The Red Sox can hope to have him back in short order, well in advance of what could be a tricky deadline period. But if his recovery drags, it’ll only add to the bullpen questions — and broader strategic dilemma — that the organization faces this summer.

Royals Option Ryan O’Hearn, Recall Jorge Bonifacio

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The Royals announced today that they have optioned first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by outfielder Jorge Bonifacio.

It’s a somewhat disappointing moment for an organization that needs all the bright spots it can get. O’Hearn came out of nowhere in 2018, slashing a whopping .262/.353/.597 and popping a dozen long balls over 213 plate appearances. That didn’t really line up with his upper-minors numbers, leaving cause for skepticism, but the K.C. club was undoubtedly hopeful it had stumbled onto a gem.

Things just haven’t gone as hoped thus far in 2019. O’Hearn has maintained an 11+% walk rate and even slightly lowered his strikeout rate to 24.4%, but his power has fallen off a cliff. Through 213 plate appearances, he has hit half as many dingers as he did last year and has seen sharp declines in barrel percent and exit velocity. The result is less than half the isolated power mark he posted in 2018 (.336 versus .145).

The Royals provided O’Hearn with ample leash but ultimately had to make a move. While he tries to figure things out at Triple-A, veteran slugger Lucas Duda will try to find his own groove in the majors. If Duda can take advantage of steadier playing time, he could yet be a trade piece for the Royals.

As for Bonifacio, this isn’t exactly a case of a former top prospect forcing his way back into the picture. The once-hyped 26-year-old disappointed in the majors last year and hasn’t responded thus far in 2019. After a brutal winter league showing, he has started the current campaign with 240 plate appearances of .195/.250/.395 hitting at Omaha. It seems the plan is to use him as a gap-filler while Hunter Dozier works back from the injured list.

David Freese: Red Hot

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David Freese is best known for one small stretch of baseball – the 2011 World Series – in which his .348/.464/.696 slash in 28 plate appearances helped lead the Cardinals to a title and earn him World Series MVP honors. However, as great as Freese was during the Cardinals’ triumph over the Rangers seven years ago, he’s no one-hit wonder. Freese has been a solid major leaguer since his career began in 2009, evidenced by his .276/.351/.422 line (115 wRC+) with 110 home runs and 19.9 fWAR with the Cards, Angels, Pirates and Dodgers. Now 36 years old, Freese isn’t showing any serious signs of slowing down.

With the Pirates out of contention at the end of last August and facing Freese’s impending trip to free agency, they traded him to the Dodgers. Los Angeles was enamored enough of Freese, who thrived with the club over a small sample last season, that it re-signed him to a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee almost immediately after its World Series loss to Boston. Seven months later, it’s looking like a fantastic decision on the Dodgers’ part.

A third baseman for most of his career, Freese has essentially been a first base-only option for the Dodgers this year. From an offensive standpoint, first is one of the most demanding positions in the game, and Freese has handled it with aplomb. The right-handed hitter has  batted an eyebrow-raising .308/.419/.635 with eight home runs and a .327 ISO through 124 plate appearances, pulverizing both same- and left-handed pitchers along the way. Of hitters who have come to the plate at least 120 times this year, Freese’s 177 wRC+ ranks fifth.

Is Freese this good? Considering what he has done over the life of his career, no. However, the veteran has made real strides in his advanced age. His 16.1 percent walk rate is nearly twice his lifetime figure, while his strikeout percentage (21.8) is down a bit relative to his career. At the same time, Freese is making far more hard contact and less soft contact than usual, according to FanGraphs, and putting the ball more in the air and less on the ground than he has in any other season. His 10.2-degree launch angle is far above his usual norm, per Statcast. All of that’s a recipe for added power. Interestingly, Freese is hitting to the opposite field more, though it certainly hasn’t led to a decrease in meaningful contact.

Freese’s .348 batting average on balls in play indicates good fortune has been on his side, especially for a slow runner, but it’s not a bloated figure in his case. He has posted a .343 lifetime BABIP, after all. On the other hand, Freese’s .442 weighted on-base average – which sits third in the majors – definitely isn’t going to hold. However, his .395 expected wOBA sits 17th and isn’t indicative of a player who’s at high risk of seeing his production crash to Earth.

Freese may no longer be an everyday player, but unlike most major leaguers in their late 30s, he remains a valuable contributor. Not only could Freese help the title-contending Dodgers to a World Series in 2019, but it appears he’ll encounter a fair amount of interest in free agency in the offseason. That’s if the Dodgers don’t re-sign him first, of course.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Daniel Espino

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The Indians have agreed to a $2.5MM bonus with first-round choice Daniel Espino, according to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). He was selected with the 24th overall pick, which came with a $2.83MM slot allocation.

Espino is a right-handed hurler who’ll launch his pro career after wrapping up his high school tenure in Georgia. He was selected just about where most pundits valued him. MLB.com and ESPN.com’s Keith Law both placed him in the 23rd slot, while Baseball America had him at #25.

Many see limitless upside in Espino’s powerful right arm, particularly since he shows promising secondary stuff. But there’s also quite a lot of risk in his profile: an exceptionally hard-throwing high-schooler who lacks a big frame or pristine mechanics. The Fangraphs prospect crew rated him 33rd overall, even while acknowledging the potentially massive value.

Cody Anderson Undergoes Surgery On Flexor Tendon

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Indians righty Cody Anderson has undergone surgery to repair an injury to his flexor tendon, manager Terry Francona told reporters including MLB.com’s Mandy Bell (via Twitter). It is not yet clear how long he’ll be sidelined.

It’s the latest bad news for Anderson, who has managed only 69 2/3 MLB innings since a promising debut showing back in 2015. He took a long road back from Tommy John surgery and finally seemed to be back at health this year.

Though he was able to get back to professional pitching, sitting at 95 mph with his fastball, Anderson had struggled prior to the renewed arm problems. He was tagged for nine earned runs in 8 2/3 MLB innings. In 23 2/3 frames over six Triple-A starts, he carried a 4.56 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.

Anderson is earning $641,500 on an arbitration deal, so it’s not a huge financial loss for the club. But it is another dent in the club’s rotation depth, which has already been tested quite a bit to this stage of the season.

Fortunately, some of the team’s stars are beginning to filter back. Mike Clevinger returned sooner than anticipated from the IL. And Corey Kluber is making progress in his own rehab, as Bell also tweets, though he’s still limited to strengthening exercises and remains a long ways off from the majors.

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