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Archives for June 2019

The Angel Who Can’t Miss

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The Angels are off to a 29-31 start two-plus months into the season, but the Halos’ unimposing 60-game record isn’t the fault of their offense. The team’s Mike Trout-led attack ranks sixth in the majors in wRC+ (108) and 12th in runs (301), in part because it seldom strikes out. No team is running a lower K percentage (16.3) or a higher contact rate (82.9) than the Angels, though their ringleader isn’t Trout in either regard. Sure, Trout’s well above average in both categories (what else is new?), but it’s teammate David Fletcher who reigns as the Angels’ low-strikeout, high-contact king.

The 25-year-old Fletcher earned his first league promotion just under a year ago (on June 12, 2018), though he certainly wasn’t seen as a can’t-miss prospect at the time. But the infielder/outfielder hasn’t missed, literally or figuratively, in his first 12 months in the majors. In fact, Fletcher has already racked up 4.0 fWAR in 530 major league plate appearances. Since Fletcher’s first game last June 13, only three second basemen (Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield and Ketel Marte) have outdone him in the fWAR department. While a large portion of Fletcher’s 2018 value came from his defense, which has remained a strength this season, he’s now making the majority of his hay with his right-handed swing.

Fletcher has walked to the plate 223 times this season and recorded a .322/.377/.459 line, good for an impressive 128 wRC+. He’s not doing it with plus power, having swatted four home runs and logged a below-average .137 ISO. Fletcher’s also not reaching base nearly 38 percent of the time because of a special ability to draw walks; thus far, he has collected a free pass at a roughly average rate (8.1 percent).

Instead, Fletcher’s getting by on the fact that pitchers just can’t fool him. Fletcher’s ability to make contact is extraordinary. He sits first in all of Major League Baseball in strikeout rate (5.8 percent), swinging-strike rate (1.9 percent), contact rate (94.6 percent), zone contact rate (98.5) and out-of-zone contact rate (88.1). And Fletcher is rather selective, ranking second to Trout in swing rate (34.9 percent). In essence, when Fletcher actually does swing, he hits everything thrown at him. What’s more, he adds to hurlers’ stress by seldom going after pitches that aren’t over the plate. While Fletcher’s chase percentage (24.2) isn’t elite, it still puts him in a 25th-place tie in the sport.

The skills Fletcher’s demonstrating in the majors aren’t anything new. Fletcher previously showed off tremendous contact ability in the minors, including when he hit .350/.394/.559 with a 7.6 percent strikeout rate in 275 Triple-A plate appearances last year. The question is whether he can continue to offer production along his current lines as he moves forward. Signs are encouraging in that regard.

Fletcher’s .330 batting average on balls in play isn’t ridiculous, especially for someone with better-than-average speed and one of the league’s lowest fly ball rates. For the most part, delving into Statcast metrics leads to more positives for Fletcher. Although his exit velocity and hard-hit rate each rank in the league’s bottom 7 percentile (or worse), his expected batting average and expected weighted on-base average are near the top. Fletcher’s xBA (.334) is third in baseball, trailing only superstars Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon. Meanwhile, Fletcher’s .363 xwOBA is actually a hair better than his real wOBA (.361).

Four years after the Angels used a sixth-round pick on Fletcher in 2015, it appears the club has something in the 5-foot-9 Southern California native. In a league where balls in play are dropping and home runs and strikeouts are soaring, Fletcher’s on the other extreme. He’s a unique and effective player who just might be in the early stages of becoming a long-term staple in Anaheim.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Andrew McCutchen Out For Season With Torn ACL

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The Phillies received a brutal injury blow Tuesday, as outfielder Andrew McCutchen was diagnosed with a torn left ACL and will miss the remainder of the season (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Matt Gelb). He sustained the injury yesterday in a rundown after the Padres let a Jean Segura pop-up drop.

Philadelphia signed McCutchen, 32, to a three-year contract worth $50MM in the offseason and was rewarded with two months of strong all-around play from the former National League MVP. In 262 plate appearances, McCutchen turned in a .256/.378/.457 batting line with 10 homers, 12 doubles, a triple, two steals and an NL-best 43 walks. He’d recently shifted over to center field after Odubel Herrera was placed on administrative leave by the league, but his injury will now leave the Phillies down two outfielders.

The Phillies flew 2017 first-rounder Adam Haseley to meet them for their upcoming series in the event of a serious knee injury for McCutchen, and he’ll now likely step into center field on a regular basis, with the newly acquired Jay Bruce manning left field. Bryce Harper will continue to patrol right field. In the long run, though, it seems quite likely that the Phils will be on the hunt for a potential upgrade in center field. Haseley has had an encouraging year in the minor so far (.275/.358/.466 in 204 plate appearances) but has only played six game above Double-A ball.

Roman Quinn is currently on the mend from a groin strain and could soon return to give the Phils another option in the outfield, but the fleet-footed 26-year-old has also yet to establish him as a big leaguer despite his long standing as a quality prospect. It’s a bit early for any legitimate center field upgrades to be available on the trade market, but the Phils will surely begin kicking the tires on some potential down-the-road options. Rebuilding clubs like the Orioles and Giants could make players like Keon Broxton or Kevin Pillar available, but neither has been productive in 2019 anyhow; seeing what they already have in Haseley and waiting for more appealing options to be made available is probably a preferable option for the Phillies.

Phillies Select Adam Haseley

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5:17pm: Haseley’s contract has been formally selected from Triple-A, per a team announcement. He’ll step into the vacancy left by McCutchen, who will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn ACL in his left knee — a devastating blow to the Phils. Righty Victor Arano was moved to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

12:45am: The Phillies plan to bring up outfielder Adam Haseley from Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia tweets. If activated, Haseley will require a 40-man spot for the Phillies. They’ll need to clear space for him.

The Phillies have a need for outfield help in the wake of the knee sprain Andrew McCutchen suffered in their loss to the Padres on Monday. Between McCutchen’s injury and Odubel Herrera’s recent placement on administrative leave, the Phillies are down to Bryce Harper, the just-acquired Jay Bruce, Scott Kingery, Sean Rodriguez and Phil Gosselin as their outfield-capable players in the majors. The team also has Nick Williams in Lehigh Valley, but it’s primed to turn to Haseley instead.

With draft season in full swing, it’s worth noting the 23-year-old Haseley was a high pick not long ago. The Phillies chose Haseley eighth overall in 2017, but the former University of Virginia outfielder and pitcher hasn’t remained an elite prospect since going pro. MLB.com does not count Haseley among its top 100 farmhands, but it does place him third in Philly’s system, contending there’s potential for him to turn into a “solid” regular center fielder in the bigs. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs rank Haseley fifth among Phillies prospects and write he could become a two- to three-WAR player in the majors.

The lefty-swinging Haseley made a case for a promotion at the Double-A level last year and earlier this season, slashing .291/.378/.474 with 13 home runs in 336 plate appearances. Haseley has only walked to the plate 22 times in Triple-A so far, but he has hit .300/.364/.450 in that small sample.

Astros Option Corbin Martin

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5:12pm: The Astros announced that they’ve optioned Martin to Triple-A. It’s not clear who’ll step into his spot in the rotation, as the corresponding move was the recall of lefty reliever Reymin Guduan. As The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan points out (via Twitter), they’ll need a fifth starter on Saturday but can get through the next turn in the rotation with only four starters due to an off day next week.

11:05am: Though the Astros aren’t committing to a rotation change just yet, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes that one may not be far off. Corbin Martin has not made it past the fourth inning since his debut outing.

Martin’s first showing was a good one. But in his four intervening starts, he has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits with a 10:11 K/BB ratio in 14 innings.

The ’Stros are showing a fair bit of patience, but obviously won’t be satisfied with these sorts of results. Martin has struggled to get ahead of hitters, keep his pitch count down, and stay in the zone. And though the organization can afford some added audition time with a nine-game division lead, it also will be wary of tempting fate while several of its best players are on the injured list.

Skipper A.J. Hinch affirmed that the organization believes in Martin as a long-term option, citing his stuff and “mentality” as reasons for a “really good” long-term outlook. But Hinch says that for Martin “to stay in the rotation and be effective, not just for the foreseeable future but his entire career, it’s important for him to mix in some good outings and make sure he can get us deep in games.” Whether Martin will get one more chance to turn the corner remains to be seen.

The ’Stros certainly have alternatives. Collin McHugh would be an obvious choice, though he’s on the IL. Josh James, Framber Valdez, and Brady Rodgers could all slide over from the bullpen. It’d certainly be easy enough for the team to piggyback a few of those pitchers to get the length needed for a game or two, perhaps allowing one or more pitchers to stretch out fully on the fly.

Looking down on the farm, there are two 40-man starters — Cionel Perez and Rogelio Armenteros — camped out at Triple-A. Neither has been particularly impressive to this point of the season, at least in terms of earned runs, though both have swing and miss capabilities. It might have been hoped that top prospect Forrest Whitley would be ready for a taste of the big leagues, but he has been hammered early on at Round Rock and doesn’t seem likely to be tapped in the near future.

Rays’ Nick Ciuffo Out 8-10 Weeks Following Thumb Surgery

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Rays catcher Nick Ciuffo underwent surgery on his ailing thumb today and is expected to be sidelined for the next eight to 10 weeks, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). The Rays will also prolong fellow catcher Michael Perez’s minor league rehab stint a bit, as he’s still feeling some of the effects of the oblique injury that landed him on the IL in the first place.

The pair of updates once again raises questions about the organization’s depth behind the plate. Mike Zunino just returned from the injured list and is handling the bulk of catching duties in a timeshare with Travis d’Arnaud, but options beyond that pair are thin. Perez will give them one alternative, but Ciuffo is now on the shelf alongside Anthony Bemboom, while trade acquisition Erik Kratz was designated for assignment last week.

Beyond the sheer scarcity of catching options, the Rays have received zero production from d’Arnaud since acquiring the longtime Mets backstop in a deal with the Dodgers (who’d picked him up after he was released by New York). In 75 plate appearances with Tampa Bay, d’Arnaud has hit only .149/.227/.179. Since d’Arnaud is out of minor league options, the Rays will have to either option Perez to Triple-A when his rehab assignment is complete or designate d’Arnaud for assignment as they did with Kratz. That, in turn, would only further thin out the catching mix.

Suffice it to say, the Rays seem quite likely to be on the lookout for some catching depth in the weeks to come — even if it’s just some additions at the minor league level. The Rays have 26-year-old Mac James in Triple-A Durham, but he’s not hitting well either, and options beyond him appear limited. One option for Tampa Bay would be to take a look at veteran catcher Chris Stewart, who recently opted out of a minor league contract with the Padres.

Dallas Keuchel Rumors: 6/4/19

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4:33pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a lengthy look at the situation, examining the possible reasons that Keuchel has yet to strike up a deal. As Sherman points out, even the prorated version of the $17.9MM qualifying offer value checks in close to $11.5MM, and few teams have that type of money budgeted this time of year. The Braves, for instance, are “uncomfortable” with that price point, per Sherman, while the Yankees are unlikely to exceed it, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.

Previous struggles from players who waited into the season to sign (e.g. Kendrys Morales, Greg Holland) have created concerns over what to expect from Keuchel. As a result, some clubs would prefer a lower base salary with per-start incentives — similar to the one Gio Gonzalez initially signed with the Yankees in Spring Training — but Keuchel and Boras would obviously prefer a full guarantee. Sherman adds that Keuchel’s camp has floated some multi-year scenarios with an opt-out after the 2019 season, but a straight one-year pact still seems likely.

8:55am: With draft compensation no longer a factor, a signing could come at any time for free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. As always, we’ll be on top of the latest developments in the market here at MLBTR.

We heard yesterday that the Yankees and Braves were among the likeliest possible landing spots for Keuchel, with a few other teams also among those with ongoing interest. Now, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) takes things a bit further by labeling the New York and Atlanta organizations the favorites for the veteran southpaw.

Another source labels the Yankees the true favorites, Feinsand tweets. Braves beat reporters, meanwhile, have poured cold water on the idea of a move for Keuchel. (Links to Twitter.) It’s impossible to know when and how a signing will come together, but Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that there’s a sense resolution could come “relatively soon.”

As things stand, says Feinsand, the Yankees and Braves “are believed to be in the same area with their offers.” No doubt Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are hopeful that one of these or another team will create some separation in the financial department.

There has long been some uncertainty regarding Keuchel’s contractual demands and outlook. There’s little question he has backed down from any opening asking price, but there have been varying indications as to whether he’d accept (or even seek) a contract that wraps up at season’s end. If he’s only looking for a half-year arrangement, Keuchel will surely want it to be for a hefty rate of pay. But he’d assuredly also consider other factors with an eye already on a return to the open market.

Even if the Yanks and Braves are indeed “favorites” at the moment, it’s worth remembering that such a status means relatively little until the ink hits the paper. Other organizations are surely also engaged with Boras — the Cardinals, Rays, Brewers, and Twins have all been cited of late — and all are no doubt also canvassing the early trade market possibilities.

Miguel Cabrera Dealing With “Chronic Changes” To Knee; Josh Harrison To Undergo Surgery

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Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera will be limited to DH work for the foreseeable future after being diagnosed with “chronic changes” to his knee, the team told reporters Tuesday (Twitter links via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com and The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen).

Dr. James Andrews was among the four surgeons from whom Cabrera sought an opinion, and while season-ending surgery was discussed as an option, it was not recommended in the end. Beyond the news on Cabrera, Woodbery tweets that second baseman Josh Harrison will undergo surgery to repair his partially torn hamstring later this week and is expected to miss six to eight weeks of action.

The outlook on Cabrera is certainly troubling, even though he is not being placed on the injured list. One of the generation’s great sluggers, Cabrera missed most of the 2018 season due a biceps tear and hasn’t been himself at the plate in 2019. While he’s hitting for average and still drawing walks, Cabrera’s power has completely disappeared, and the resulting .284/.356/.356 line is rather light for a full-time designated hitter — solid average and OBP marks notwithstanding.

Furthermore, it doesn’t seem as if this is an issue with much hope of improving. Tigers trainer Doug Teter told reporters that the changes are the “natural result of attrition” from a lengthy career, adding that Cabrera will deal with this issue for the rest of his career. As for the prospect of future surgery, Cabrera indicated today that he simply doesn’t consider it an option at present. Woodbery notes that while Cabrera acknowledged he is “sad” to be moving away from first base, he was also firm in his stance on undergoing another operation: “Forget about that. I’m done with that.”

Beyond the mere fact that a healthy Cabrera is a joy for any fan to watch, his knee issues further underscore the misstep made by the Tigers in extending Cabrera back in 2014. He was already signed for two more years at that point (through age 32), but the Tigers tacked on an additional eight years and $248MM to keep him in Detroit for the remainder of his career. Not only is Cabrera earning $30MM in 2019, he’ll be paid that same sum in 2020 and 2021 before receiving a $32MM salary in both 2022 and 2023. There’s also an $8MM buyout on the Tigers’ club option over Cabrera for the 2024 season.

All told, Cabrera is owed a staggering $151MM from today through the end of contract in 2023. It was always assumed that he’d have to move to DH eventually, but this is probably sooner than the team had hoped. And if this year’s lack of power is in any way a lasting development, the remaining salary owed to Cabrera will prove all the more problematic for the organization. That, of course, remains to be seen. Perhaps Cabrera’s power outage is tied, at least in part, to lingering effects from last year’s biceps tear.

If that’s the case, one would imagine he’ll rediscover some pop as he further distances himself from that surgery. A return to his peak output clearly can’t be expected — we’ve yet to even mention the multiple herniated disks with which he was diagnosed in 2017 — but Cabrera’s average and discipline should allow him to at least be a productive hitter if he can regain some of that extra-base ability. Even in that scenario, though, his salary will be generally viewed as an albatross on the team’s books and will hamper the team’s maneuverability when it is fully ready to emerge from the current rebuilding state.

As for Harrison, he’s playing on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $2MM and now figures to be out until after the All-Star break. Detroit signed him and his former Pirates double-play partner, Jordy Mercer, to fill out the middle infield in the offseason but haven’t received value from either deal. Harrison was hitting just .176/.219/.265 when he landed on the injured list. His absence will open more playing time for veteran Gordon Beckham and younger options like Dawel Lugo, Niko Goodrum and Ronny Rodriguez.

Royals To Release Chris Owings

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The Royals announced Tuesday that they’ve requested unconditional release waivers on infielder/outfielder Chris Owings. He was designated for assignment last week and will become a free agent once he clears in 48 hours. Kansas City has also recalled third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez from Triple-A Omaha.

Owings was brought in early this winter (Dec. 5) on a one-year, $3MM contract that ultimately didn’t pay dividends for Kansas City. The longtime Diamondbacks utilityman hit just .133/.193/.222 through 145 plate appearances with his new club while playing all three outfield positions, second base, third base and shortstop. Owings’ decision to pounce on an early big league offer from the Royals proved wise even looking beyond his poor play in K.C.; several other veteran infielders and outfielders lingered on the market and eventually signed for smaller guarantees (e.g. Josh Harrison) or minor league contracts (e.g. Jose Iglesias).

The 2019 season is the second straight rough campaign for Owings, who hit .206/.272/.302 through 309 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks in 2018. Overall, he’s never matched the gaudy numbers he put up as a prospect in Triple-A, when he once won Pacific Coast League MVP honors. But, Owings does have some speed (and is quite efficient at base stealing, as evidenced by a career 84 percent success rate), some gap power and experience playing nearly everywhere on the diamond. He could latch on with a club whose infield depth has been compromised or a team looking to bolster its bench with some versatility, but Owings’ play dating back to Opening Day 2018 makes a minor league pact seem the likeliest outcome for him.

In Gutierrez, the Royals will take a second look at one of the key pieces acquired in last season’s Kelvin Herrera trade with the Nationals. The 24-year-old hit .281/.300/.386 with 18 strikeouts against just two walks through 60 trips to the plate in his first look at the big league level earlier this year. He’s hitting at a .312/.430/.403 clip in 93 Triple-A plate appearances, however, and the Royals have some additional needs around the infield with 2019 breakout slugger Hunter Dozier on the injured list.

The Yasmani Grandal Contract Looks Even Better In Retrospect

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Just because you get a nice price doesn’t mean you oughta buy something. And it doesn’t mean that the thing you purchase will deliver utility commensurate with its cost.

That’s true for MLB teams considering free agents as much as online shoppers contemplating another splurge … except that ballclubs face a notable limitation in the form of roster rules. Teams can’t necessarily have that super-functional fanny pack and a designer handbag, at least without giving up some other much-needed accessory.

In baseball, especially, the gold standard isn’t cost-efficiency standing alone. It’s getting (at least) good value for a premium asset that fulfills a need.

Every so often, teams more or less luck into supreme value. The Tigers deserve credit for re-discovering J.D. Martinez, to be sure, but that’s also just an extremely good outcome on the sort of dice rolls that happen every winter on marginal roster pieces.

Even more rare is the sort of opportunity that arose last winter for the Brewers: a chance to pick up an already-acknowledged premium player at a position of need for an extremely appealing price in free agency. Entering the winter, we predicted Yasmani Grandal would command $64MM over four years — a set of numbers that would’ve been higher had it not been for his stunning issues in the postseason. Instead, the Brewers picked up Grandal’s age-30 season for a measly $18.25MM. (Some of that is deferred as the buyout on a mutual option, but there’s no realistic shot of that being exercised.)

That deal seemed like an exceptional value proposition for the Milwaukee club at the moment it was struck. Before the signing, the club was slated to go with Manny Pina and Erik Kratz. Sure, they only got one year, but that was an opportunity to add a nice chunk of his prime without taking on any long-term risk. There really isn’t even a premium on the cost versus the scenario we proposed; on any lengthy free-agent deal, a team reasonably anticipates much of the on-field to come on the front end.

It’s somewhat anticlimactic to say that … well, the deal is working out exactly as it was drawn up. He’s doing just what he has done before, and then some. Grandal is drawing a lot of walks while striking out at a palatable level and hitting for good power. With his hard-hit rate up early, Grandal is also maintaining a higher BABIP (.310) and batting average (.277) than usual.

The result on offense is a 133 wRC+. Grandal is on pace to set a personal-high in the long ball department, in no small part because he’s being run out in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. Since they aren’t obligated to him for the future, the Brewers don’t need to worry too much about long-term wear and tear. Of course, Grandal is also a strong defender. He continues to grade as a premium pitch framer. And he’s even running a little, having matched his single-season career-high with three stolen bases. Fangraphs’ BsR measure has long loathed Grandal’s work on the bases, but now views him as a neutral overall runner.

Grandal is well on his way to matching or exceeding the roughly 5 WAR annual level of play he sustained with the Dodgers. Getting that sort of player for a one-year deal at the qualifying offer price is kind of hard to believe. What even happened?

It certainly took somewhat unique circumstances for this deal to come together. Grandal turned down a substantial, multi-year offer that wasn’t to his liking. He also decided not to wait out a bigger contract at all costs, though waiting until early/mid-January to sign wasn’t exactly rushing into a deal. Even on a one-year scenario, this deal seemed like it came in cheap; the Braves spent $23MM in hopes of a bounceback year from an older player with a more significant injury history (but also more upside) in Josh Donaldson.

It’s fair to note that things are working out thus far for Grandal as well. He obviously preferred this approach. He ought to have every chance of securing a larger and longer contract if he so desires this winter.

Still, this contract was a fantasy scenario for the Brewers when the offseason started. And so far, the reality has exceeded the dream.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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