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Archives for June 2019

Drew Smyly Struggling In Return From Tommy John Surgery

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After back-to-back injury-wrecked seasons in Seattle and Chicago, left-hander Drew Smyly joined the Rangers via trade with the Cubs last November. The transaction all but completed the teams’ midsummer deal centering on southpaw Cole Hamels, and it was a bit of an eye-opener that the Cubs parted with Smyly. The 29-year-old has been a more-than-capable big leaguer for most of his career, after all, but the Cubs – who wanted to cut unnecessary payroll – deemed him and his $7MM salary expendable.

Smyly never threw a pitch for Chicago after it signed him to a two-year, $10MM guarantee in December 2017. The Cubs’ hope at the time was Smyly would eventually recover from the Tommy John surgery he underwent as a member of the Mariners in June 2017 and return to his past form. The Rangers had the same hope when they acquired Smyly, but the union between the two sides hasn’t worked out to this point, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explains.

In his most recent start of the year, Smyly turned in 3 1/3 innings of seven-earned run, eight-hit ball and allowed three homers in a loss to the lowly Orioles on Tuesday. Smyly has now taken the ball 10 times (eight starts) with Texas, and most of his outings have been middling to poor. He’s now running a 7.93 ERA/7.35 FIP with 8.79 K/9, 6.21 BB/9, a 27.3 percent groundball rate and a 20.3 percent home run-to-fly ball rate in 42 innings. Those numbers are a far cry from the production Smyly registered with the Tigers and Rays from 2014-16, a 77-start, 388-inning span in which he managed a 4.01 ERA/4.16 FIP with 8.58 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9. Smyly didn’t generate many grounders then, as shown by his 34 percent rate, but he helped limit homers (11.9 HR/FB%) with the majors’ leading infield fly percentage (15.3). He’s down to 7.1 percent in that category this season.

Even though there hasn’t been a change in Smyly’s velocity from 2016 to this year, it’s clear nothing is working in his return from TJ surgery. And with the Rangers surprisingly sitting at 30-28 and in a tie for the American League’s second wild-card spot, they may have to bounce Smyly out of their rotation to make a Cinderella run. However, that’s not going to happen yet, manager Chris Woodward said after Smyly’s start Tuesday (via Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram). Woodward has shown a willingness to make such a move, having shifted Shelby Miller – another offseason addition with a notable injury history – to the Rangers’ relief unit last month. It’s a small sample, but Miller has logged much better results as a reliever than a starter this season.

The Rangers’ reluctance to pull the plug on the Smyly experiment stems from a lack of alternatives, suggests Grant, who names only Double-A starters Joe Palumbo and Jonathan Hernandez as realistic in-house replacements. Palumbo, a 24-year-old lefty whom MLB.com considers the Rangers’ seventh-best prospect, has produced good results this season. Hernandez has a 5.47 ERA, on the other hand, but the 22-year-old has racked up a solid amount of strikeouts and grounders. At No. 8, Hernandez falls right behind Palumbo on MLB.com’s list of Rangers prospects. Nevertheless, the team doesn’t seem inclined to rush either to the majors, even as it clings to a playoff spot.

In the event Texas stays in the race over the next month and a half but still doesn’t find an inside replacement for Smyly, it could consider the trade market. General manager Jon Daniels has made it known the Rangers will be aggressive spenders heading into a new ballpark next season, so it could make sense to acquire a starter who’s under control past this year. In doing so, the Rangers would ideally better their playoff odds this season while strengthening their roster for 2020. Blue Jays righties Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez spring to mind as controllable upgrades who could be on the move in the coming weeks. Detroit lefty Matt Boyd would require a lot more than Stroman or Sanchez in return if the Tigers were to move him, but he’s someone who’d be worth inquiring about from the Rangers’ perspective.

For now, the Rangers will continue with the rotation they have. It’s not the most confidence-inspiring group, but there have been bright spots. Two of Daniels’ reasonably priced free-agent pickups, Mike Minor (two offseasons ago) and Lance Lynn (last winter), have lived up to their contracts. Ariel Jurado has pitched well, albeit over just three starts, and Adrian Sampson has been effective of late. But the Rangers’ starting five is difficult to trust after Minor and Lynn, especially because of Smyly’s struggles, and the unit’s shakiness will make it tough for the team to snap its two-year playoff drought this season.

Health Notes: Mets, Moreland, Phillies, Blackmon

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A few notable health updates from around the majors…

  • The Mets activated infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil from the 10-day injured list Tuesday. Both McNeil (hamstring strain) and Robinson Cano (quad strain) went to the shelf May 23, though the latter’s return date remains “to be determined,” ESPN.com writes. Unlike Cano, who’s amid a tough first season with the Mets, McNeil has thrived in 2019. The contact-hitting 27-year-old has slashed .329/.412/.453 with 16 unintentional walks and 22 strikeouts in 194 plate appearances.
  • Red Sox first baseman Mitch Moreland could come off the IL as early as Friday, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The lefty-swinging Moreland was put on the list May 29 because of a lower back strain, temporarily halting a powerful start to the season for the 33-year-old. Moreland’s a .228/.320/.550 hitter (121 wRC+) with a Red Sox-best 13 home runs and a team high isolated power mark (.322) through 172 trips to the plate.
  • Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin is set for a quick return after landing on the IL on May 31. Eflin, who has been down with mid-back tightness, will start for Philadelphia on Friday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets. Eflin posted an impressive 3.02 ERA and walked fewer than two per nine in 11 starts and 65 2/3 innings before his IL placement. At the same time, though, he struck out fewer than seven per nine and put up a mediocre 4.34 FIP.
  • Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon could begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Blackmon last played May 23 because of a right calf problem. Even though he’s one of their cornerstones, the Rockies have stormed to a 9-2 record without Blackmon.

Indians Place Jefry Rodriguez On IL; Mike Clevinger Progressing

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The Indians placed right-hander Jefry Rodriguez on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Ryan Lewis of Ohio.com relays. Rodriguez is dealing with a “mild” shoulder strain, according to manager Terry Francona, though he’ll still miss “at least a few weeks,” per Lewis. The team activated outfielder Tyler Naquin from the IL to take Rodriguez’s roster spot.

The 25-year-old Rodriguez arrived in Cleveland last offseason as part of its return from Washington for catcher Yan Gomes. But Rodriguez wasn’t supposed to see this much action with the Tribe right away. Before landing on the IL, he totaled eight starts and 43 2/3 innings of 4.74 ERA/4.47 FIP pitching with 6.6 K/9 and 3.92 BB/9. The Indians have had to rely on Rodriguez because of injuries to two of their best hurlers, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, who have only combined for seven starts and 47 2/3 frames this season.

It’s not yet clear who will take over for Rodriguez in the Indians’ rotation. It’s not going to be Clevinger, who has been down since April 8 because of back issues, but he’s not far from a return. Lewis reports Clevinger will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus on Thursday. As things stand, the 28-year-old is way ahead of schedule, Lewis suggests.

Clevinger came out of the gates in awe-inspiring fashion during his first two starts this season, throwing 12 scoreless innings of two-hit ball and racking up 22 strikeouts against three walks. His comeback will be a welcome morsel of positive news for a .500 Cleveland club that’s sitting a distant 10 1/2 games behind first-place Minnesota in the AL Central. The Indians entered the season as back-to-back-to-back division champions, and their two most recent titles came with key contributions from Clevinger.

Mariners Notes: Sadzeck, Gordon, Healy, Crawford

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The Mariners sent reliever Connor Sadzeck to the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a flexor mass in his right elbow, per Greg Johns of MLB.com. Sadzeck will be out “at least a couple weeks,” Johns writes. His roster spot went to right-hander Andrew Moore, whom they recalled from Double-A Arkansas. Moore started the Mariners’ game against the Astros on Tuesday.

The injury to Sadzeck will deprive free-falling Seattle and its shaky bullpen of one of most utilized options for the time being. The 27-year-old Sadzeck joined the Mariners in an April 1 trade with the division-rival Rangers, who acquired righty Grant Anderson in return. Sadzeck has produced good bottom-line results in 23 2/3 innings since then, thanks in part to a 96 mph four-seamer and a 94 mph sinker. He has pitched to a 2.66 ERA with 10.27 K/9 and a 46 percent groundball rate, though a bloated BB/9 (5.7) and a 4.66 FIP do curb enthusiasm about Sadzeck’s performance.

In better injury-related news for the Mariners, infielders Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy and J.P. Crawford are all nearing rehab assignments, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times suggests. Gordon (right wrist contusion) and Healy (lower back inflammation) have each been on the IL since May 21, while Crawford went down less than a week ago on account of a left ankle sprain.

With transaction-happy general manager Jerry Dipoto at the helm, Gordon and Healy could be trade chips when they return to health. Both players have managed uninspiring production since they arrived in Seattle heading into the 2018 season, though, and likely wouldn’t bring back much in a deal.

Gordon and Healy may not be long-term building blocks for the Mariners, but the hope is Crawford will emerge as one. Acquired from the Phillies in a blockbuster trade last December, the formerly elite shortstop prospect got off to a nice start with his new organization before landing on the IL. Crawford, 24, hit well with Triple-A Tacoma and then began his M’s tenure by batting .279/.343.426 (112 wRC+) in 67 plate appearances between his promotion on May 10 and his IL placement on the 29th.

The Yankees Have Found Their First Baseman

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It has been almost a full year since the Yankees and Cardinals made what looked like a relatively minor trade at the time. On July 28, 2018, New York shipped relievers Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis for first baseman Luke Voit and international bonus pool money. There was no apparent need for Voit for the Cardinals, who had Matt Carpenter at first base and Jose Martinez capable of playing the position, and there still isn’t now that Paul Goldschmidt’s a Redbird. On the other hand, Voit has been manna for the Yankees, whose first base production left a lot to be desired in the few years leading up to his arrival.

Aside from a resurgent 2015, injuries and age took their toll on Mark Teixeira in the final few seasons of his career. He retired after his production nosedived in 2016. Similarly, constant injury issues have derailed the career of Greg Bird, who was once Teixeira’s presumed heir apparent. The 26-year-old Bird’s inability to stay on the field helped coax the Yankees into taking a flier on Voit last season.

As just about everyone knows by now, Voit broke out as an absolute force after he first joined the Yankees. From his debut in pinstripes on Aug. 2 through the end of the year, Voit slashed .333/.405/.689 in 148 plate appearances and ranked second in the majors in isolated power (.356), third in wRC+ (194) and sixth in home runs (14). As you’d expect from those numbers, Voit packed a wallop.

Even in a lineup with the hard-hitting trio of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, Voit’s ability to inflict damage on the baseball was eye-opening. Voit placed first in the majors in barrel percentage and third in rate of balls hit 95 mph or more, per Statcast, which showed little difference between his second-ranked weighted on-base average (.447) and his first-place expected wOBA (.438).

Although Voit was nothing short of marvelous in 2018, his unexpected brilliance still came over a small sample of at-bats. There was skepticism leading into this season as a result. When I asked MLBTR readers in February to predict Voit’s 2019 OPS, most voters forecast a noticeable decline in comparison to what he did a year ago.

To some degree, those who expected Voit to come up well short of what he offered last season have been right. Good fortune played a part in his stunning output, after all. It would have been almost impossible for a slow runner like Voit to replicate last year’s .365 batting average on balls in play. Indeed, he’s down to .302 in that category as of this writing. Likewise, nearly 41 percent of his fly balls weren’t going to continue leaving the yard. They haven’t – he’s at just under 27 percent as he approaches the 60-game mark in 2019. Thanks in part to that drop, his ISO has plummeted to a still-effective .251. Furthermore, the right-handed Voit has shown a bit of vulnerability against left-handed hurlers – whom he crushed last year – while producing far less than he did in 2018 against breaking pitches in general.

Clearly, some of Voit’s marks have come to Earth this season. And yet, the 28-year-old has continued to serve as a legit offensive presence in his first full season in the Bronx. The production is hard to argue with – Voit has amassed 256 PA and hit .270/.383/.521 with 15 long balls, putting him on pace for 34, and the game’s 28th-ranked wRC+ (140). It helps that he has upped his walks by almost 3 percent while cutting strikeouts by exactly 3 percent. He’s also in baseball’s 93rd percentile or higher in both xwOBA and expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast. Voit’s .399 xwOBA outdoes an already imposing wOBA (.385), while his xSLG (.566) has a 45-point lead over his real slugging percentage (.521).

Thanks in part to Voit’s production, the Yankees’ lineup has weathered an early maelstrom of injuries – including to Judge and Stanton, among several others – en route to a 38-20 record. With that in mind, it’s getting harder to regard Voit as anything other than a major threat at the plate. He can’t flash the leather at first the way Teixeira could, but Voit looks like his real successor at the position. Not bad for someone who was a little-known minor leaguer with the Cardinals at this time in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals Sign Fernando Rodney

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June 4: Rodney’s deal with the Nats is official, per an announcement from Paul Braverman of the Fresno Grizzlies’ communications department (Twitter link). He joined the Grizzlies in New Orleans and is active for tonight’s game.

June 1: The Nationals have agreed to a minor league deal with reliever Fernando Rodney, according to Craig Mish of SiriusXM. Rodney will report to Triple-A Fresno.

The well-traveled Rodney was last with the Athletics, who designated him for assignment a week ago before releasing him on Tuesday. Even though Oakland had to eat the remaining $3.53MM on Rodney’s club option in moving on from him, the club decided the 42-year-old was no longer worth a roster spot. It was an understandable call on the part of the A’s, for whom Rodney turned in 14 1/3 innings of 9.42 ERA/5.52 FIP ball with 8.79 K/9 and 7.53 BB/9 this season.

While 2019 has been a nightmare for the arrow-slinging Rodney, he was a useful reliever between Oakland and Minnesota just a year ago. Since his career began with the Tigers back in 2002, the right-hander has notched a 3.79 ERA/3.77 FIP with 9.08 K/9, 4.48 BB/9, a 50.2 percent groundball rate, 325 saves and 96 holds in 899 2/3 innings.

Rodney’s typical production would be welcome in Washington, whose bullpen has been one of the majors’ worst this year. The Nationals haven’t been able to find solutions leading up to closer Sean Doolittle, and the Rodney signing is their latest low-risk attempt to repair their unenviable late-game situation. Rodney follows Jonny Venters and George Kontos as the third veteran reliever the Nats have brought in on a minors pact since last Saturday.

Examining Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Possibility

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It has now been 10 years since the Nationals used the first pick in the 2009 draft on right-hander Stephen Strasburg, whose major league debut a season later came with great fanfare. Strasburg drew comparisons to Hall of Fame hurlers leading up to his initial start June 8, 2010, and he didn’t disappoint that night. The flamethrowing 21-year-old introduced himself by fanning 14 Pirates and walking none in a seven-inning, two-run performance, leading to hope such outings would become the norm and he’d emerge as a perennial Cy Young contender. Nine years later, Strasburg’s trophy case is devoid of a Cy Young, but that doesn’t mean he has been a letdown in D.C.

There have been rocky moments in Strasburg’s career, including injury woes (he underwent Tommy John surgery late in his rookie season, to name one example) and the Nationals’ infamous decision to shut him down amid a pennant race in 2012. The Nationals didn’t take home a World Series without Strasburg that fall – nor have they even won a playoff series with him on their roster, if you can believe it. Still, the Nats can’t complain over what Strasburg has given them dating back to his electrifying introduction.

If a pitcher’s record matters to you, Strasburg has won 99 of 154 decisions en route to a .643 winning percentage. More importantly, Strasburg has notched a 3.14 ERA/2.90 FIP with 10.6 K/9 against 2.35 BB/9 in 218 starts and 1,308 2/3 innings, and his lifetime 33.1 fWAR ranks 11th among starters since 2010.

As good as Strasburg has been, he has taken a backseat in Washington to the even better Max Scherzer since the latter joined the franchise in 2015. Scherzer is perhaps what many thought Strasburg would become – a dominant workhorse with three Cy Youngs to his name. But while Scherzer may be the gold standard among current pitchers, Strasburg hasn’t been miles behind him in 2019. Durability hasn’t been a problem this season for the soon-to-be 31-year-old Strasburg, who entered Tuesday averaging almost seven frames per start across 12 tries and ranking sixth in innings (79). At the same time, Strasburg boasts the majors’ ninth-best strikeout rate (11.16 per nine), 13th-highest K/BB ratio (4.9) and 22nd-ranked groundball percentage (48.9) – all of which has helped lead to a 3.19 ERA/2.68 FIP.

Strasburg doesn’t bring the same type of velocity he used to, evidenced by the sub-94 mph average on his fastball, but it hasn’t mattered. His four-seamer and sinker have been among the game’s premier fastballs this year, per FanGraphs, which assigns even higher marks to his curveball. Strasburg has been much more reliant on his sinker and curve than ever this season, while he has all but scrapped his slider. Hitters have posted a pitiful .251 weighted on-base average/.240 xwOBA against Strasburg’s four-pitch mix (he also throws a changeup better than 18 percent of the time), making him one of the majors’ most difficult starters to hit in 2019.

If Strasburg keeps this up over the next few months, he could have an important call to make once the season ends. By then, Strasburg will have a remaining four years and $100MM (some of which is deferred) on the seven-year, $175MM extension he signed with the Nationals in May 2016. However, Strasburg’s deal comes with an opt-out decision after both the 2019 and ’20 campaigns, meaning he could walk away from a guaranteed nine figures and take his chances on the open market this offseason. In doing so, Strasburg would likely fall behind only Astros righty Gerrit Cole on the pecking order of free-agent starters,

Strasburg would be taking an incredible risk in trying his hand at free agency, of course, though seeing a starter surpass the $100MM barrier at or over the age of 30 isn’t unheard of. Scherzer pulled it off as a 30-year-old when the Nationals gave him seven years and $215MM entering 2015. The Diamondbacks signed righty Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5MM guarantee on the cusp of his age-32 season, 2016. That same offseason, 30-year-old lefty David Price (Red Sox) and one of Strasburg’s former teammates, soon-to-be 30-year-old righty Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), scored paydays worth a combined $327MM. Righty Yu Darvish was just months away from his 32nd birthday when the Cubs inked him to a six-year, $126MM deal going into 2018. And one of Strasburg’s current rotation mates, soon-to-be 30-year-old lefty Patrick Corbin, put pen to paper on a six-year, $140MM pact this past winter.

Strasburg could look to Scherzer, Greinke, Price, Zimmermann, Darvish and Corbin for inspiration. However, he’d also have to consider other accomplished hurlers who haven’t gotten free agency to work for them in recent years. Righty Jake Arrieta had his sights set on a $100MM or even $200MM guarantee going into 2018, his age-32 season, but wound up getting three years and $75MM from the Phillies. Nowadays, as anyone who pays a sliver of attention to free-agent activity knows, 31-year-old southpaw Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been able to find a job seven months after hitting the market. Keuchel wanted nine figures when he ventured to free agency, but he may be lucky to even pull in a multiyear deal at this juncture.

The fact that Arrieta and Keuchel came with qualifying offers and draft pick compensation attached helped tamp down interest when they reached the market. Strasburg would also have a QO hindering him, as the Nationals wouldn’t just let him walk for nothing, and that’s something else he’ll have to think about. Fortunately for Strasburg, he looks more formidable than Arrieta did during his contract year or Keuchel did during his platform season. That doesn’t mean Strasburg will opt out – especially given the positive relationship he and agent Scott Boras have with Nationals ownership – but he may have a real decision on his hands in a few months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees Release Cliff Pennington

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The Yankees have released veteran infielder Cliff Pennington from his minor league contract, reports Conor Foley of the Scranton Times Tribune (via Twitter).

Pennington, 34, inked a minor league pact with the Yankees back in early April shortly after Miguel Andujar and Troy Tulowitzki both landed on the injured list. He appeared in 29 games with New York’s Triple-A affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, hitting .196/.306/.413 with five long balls, three doubles and a triple in 112 plate appearances. Pennington himself landed on the minor league injured list in mid May due to a hamstring strain. Foley tweeted that he was fielding grounders at shortstop earlier this week, and the Yankees formally activated him from the IL before cutting him loose.

The switch-hitting Pennington is known more for his glove than his bat. He’s a lifetime .242/.309/.339 hitter in 3142 trips to the plate over parts of 11 Major League seasons. The majority of those at-bats came with the Athletics, but he’s also spent three seasons with the D-backs, two with the Angels and partial seasons with both the Reds and Blue Jays. He has nearly 5000 Major League innings at shortstop, more than 1600 at second base and another 325 at the hot corner.

Astros To Move Framber Valdez Into Rotation

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The Astros are moving left-hander Framber Valdez into the big league rotation, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. He’ll step into the fifth spot that was vacated today when Houston optioned the struggling Corbin Martin to Triple-A.

Collin McHugh opened the year in the rotation alongside Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Brad Peacock, but his own struggles landed him in the bullpen. (More recently, elbow troubles sent him to the injured list.) While Martin tossed well in his first outing, he was unable to last more than four innings in any of his next four starts, allowing multiple runs in each of those performances.

Valdez, 25, has gotten a brief look in the rotation himself in the past. He started five games for the ’Stros last year and posted a 2.59 ERA in 24 1/3 innings. Solid as that ERA appeared, though, Valdez also posted an ugly 20-to-18 K/BB ratio in that time. This season, Valdez has worked as a reliever in the Majors and notched a 3.12 ERA with a slightly improved 21-to-13 K/BB ratio. He’s still too prone to surrendering free passes, but he’ll work to improve that on the fly while stepping into a larger role with the Astros.

Houston’s nine-game lead in the AL West is large enough that there’s no immediate urgency to find a more established starter to round out the rotation, but it also stands to reason that as the trade deadline draws nearer, president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow could pursue upgrades. Peacock and Miley have both pitched well in their starts, but the Astros may want a higher-caliber arm to step into a potential postseason rotation behind Verlander and Cole. Talk of a potential reunion with Dallas Keuchel likely won’t completely die off until he signs with a new team in the near future, though that’d be one alternative if the Astros prefer to hang onto their prospects and entrust a rotation spot to a known commodity.

Houston has a number of in-house alternatives as well, should they wish to exhaust more options before looking outside the organization. Right-handers Brady Rodgers and Josh James are already in the Major League bullpen, while lefty Cionel Perez and righty Rogelio Armenteros are on the 40-man roster and in the Triple-A rotation. It was hoped that top prospect Forrest Whitley would eventually emerge as an option, but he’s struggled throughout the 2019 campaign and recently landed on the minor league injured list due to shoulder fatigue.

Nicky Delmonico Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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White Sox outfielder Nicky Delmonico will miss the remainder of the 2019 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets.

Delmonico, 26, looked to be a terrific bargain find for the White Sox in 2017. The former Orioles and Brewers prospect made his big league debut with the South Siders that season and impressed with a .262/.373/.482 batting line, nine homers and four doubles in a 43-game audition down the stretch (166 plate appearances). That strong showing put him on the team’s Opening Day roster in 2018, but Delmonico’s bat has eroded over the past year-plus.

In 386 trips to the plate since that rookie campaign, Delmonico has mustered a timid .213/.290/.357 slash. And while he walked at a 14 percent clip with just an 18.7 percent strikeout rate as a rookie, those rates have gone in the wrong direction since that time (8.0 percent walk rate; 27.2 percent strikeout rate). Delmonico hit well in 17 Triple-A contests this year, but he’ll now sit out the remainder of the year. He’s on the 40-man roster but on the minor league injured list; if the Sox need Delmonico’s roster spot, they could bring him up to the big leagues and place him on the Major League 60-day injured list or release him and attempt to re-sign him to a minor league pact.

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