Considering Will Smith is the subject of this piece, let’s dispense with the obligatory “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” reference right away: Smith is treating opposing hitters about as well as Uncle Phil treated Jazz. Between that and the fact that the Giants are way out of contention, Smith stands out as one of the majors’ most obvious trade chips leading up to the July 31 deadline. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is almost sure to part with Smith, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who’s slated to reach free agency after the season.
Smith, a left-handed reliever, has offered nothing but quality production since he shifted to the Royals’ bullpen in 2013. From then through last season, Smith posted a 3.00 ERA/2.81 FIP with 11.94 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 across 251 2/3 innings divided among Kansas City, Milwaukee and San Francisco. And the 2019 version is arguably the best one yet. In addition to recording a 2.19 ERA/1.97 FIP with 12.77 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, a 46.4 percent groundball rate and a lofty 21.4 percent infield fly rate over 24 2/3 frames, Smith has converted all 14 of his save opportunities.
As you’d expect from Smith’s sterling production, he has been death on batters of either handedness. Lefties have slashed .182/.217/.182 against him, while righties have put up an almost-as-weak .145/.197/.290 line. Hitters have only managed a .234 batting average on balls in play against Smith, which could prove to be unsustainable, but it doesn’t look as if they’re primed to start teeing off on him. Smith’s .220 weighted on-base average ranks fifth among all pitchers, and indicates the .205 real wOBA he has offered is mostly legitimate. Not only is Smith’s xwOBA in the league’s 99th percentile, but his strikeout rate (98th percentile), expected slugging percentage (98th percentile) and expected batting average (93rd percentile) all sit near the very top of the sport.
It’s fair to say the Giants have an ppealing trade piece on their hands in Smith, especially given his reasonable salary ($4.23MM). Smith was already a key deadline piece earlier in his career when the Giants acquired him from the Brewers for two prospects in 2016. Those prospects, Andrew Susac and Phil Bickford, didn’t pan out for the Brewers, but the return was nonetheless a haul at the time. Both Susac and Bickford ranked among the game’s top 65 prospects.
Smith’s a better pitcher now than he was then, but it’s unlikely he’ll bring a similar bounty in this summer’s inevitable trade. He’s only a rental, after all. Still, as at least the most valuable lefty reliever on the block (unless the Indians decide to dangle Brad Hand or the Pirates do the same with Felipe Vazquez), moving him should help the Giants strengthen their fallow farm system. With that said, it’s worth revisiting what the top impending free-agent relievers who changed hands in advance of last July’s deadline brought back in deals. We’re talking about Joakim Soria, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and Zach Britton. Aside from Britton, who hadn’t pitched much last year at the time of his trade because of injuries, each member of that group fared somewhat similarly to how Smith has this season.
Soria garnered two prospects, lefty Kodi Medeiros and righty Wilber Perez, when the White Sox traded him and $1MM in salary relief to the Brewers. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs didn’t sound too bullish on the White Sox’s return at the time, pointing to Medeiros’ difficulty throwing strikes and retiring righties and calling Perez “a fringe prospect.”
The Mets’ decision to send Familia (and his remaining $3MM in salary) to the A’s netted New York third baseman Will Toffey, righty Bobby Wahl and $1MM in international slot money. Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) was among the many who panned the Mets’ half of the trade.
Herrera brought back three players – outfielder Blake Perkins, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and righty Yohanse Morel – when the Royals traded him and his $4.44MM in remaining salary to the Nationals. No one from that trio rated among the Nationals’ 10 best prospects then.
Likewise, Britton pulled in three players when his deal was consummated. The Yankees acquired Britton and his $4.44MM in money from the Orioles for righties Dillon Tate and Cody Carroll and lefty Josh Rogers. Tate was one of the Yankees’ highest-rated prospects at that point (No. 6 in their system, per Baseball America), while Carroll checked in at No. 15.
For the most part, none of the above relievers brought back inspiring packages for their final few months of team control in 2018. That may not bode well for the Giants this summer, though it’s certainly worth noting Smith has been better this year than any of them were last season. And with just over $2.5MM left in salary now and $1.39MM on July 31, he’ll come at a price any team could afford. Thanks to Smith’s performance, ability to close or set up, and affordability – not to mention contenders’ annual desire to upgrade their bullpens – playoff hopefuls will be beating down the Giants’ door in hopes of landing him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Man , do the Red Sox need that guy. !
As a Giants fan, I hate to see Smith go. Dude is a beast. For some reason, I have the feeling Smith and Bumgarner will be getting traded to the same team. Who knows though…
Cardinals need both. Bumgarner’s bulldog attitude is needed to light a fire under the team. Hopefully
Yes, throwing away prospects for two rentals just to still be mediocre and miss the playoffs would be a wise move.
Looking at where the Cards are in the standings, they would be better served to not trade for rentals and maybe sell off some pieces if things don’t improve for them.
I think neither player is destined to bring back the return their names, reputation, and prior production may warrant at first glance. Packaging them together would likely net at least one top 100 prospect plus some other pieces. It’s a situation where they may prefer quality over quantity.
Philly needs this guy. Shutdown lefty arm to go alongside Neris and the 8th/9th inning would be locked down. I would be completely fine with using Kingery as a chip for a Smith/Bumgarner trade. Not only would we get stronger but it would prevent the Braves from getting them too.
Better trade for a 3B and a CF as well particularly if you’re coughing up Kingery.
Smith to braves for; luiz gohara + Kobe Allard
Madbum to yankees for; Clint Frazier+ back end prospect
Please stop playing GM.
Let the big boys figure it out…..
let em’ play GM all they want…who cares?! It’s not hurting anyone!
Just throwing out ideas there scruffy mcBallbag
Hello Gang, Chops here. Bark bark bark, ruff ruff ruff,
Whorgee, Mr. Pickle just called you Scruffy Mcballbag. Hilarious,
Ha ha ha, Pant pant pant. That is so funny. I’m going to chase my tail for an hour. Whew. I’m really tired and dizzy. Bow wow wow Bow.
Ho dee doe, Ho de doe, what to do? what to do? Hmmmmm.
Hey Gang, Wat’s dis dat I see. Yep dat be my tail a wagging. Wag wag wag.
Yep dat be Bochy’s shoes all nice an polished sitting outside his door.
Argg argg argg, groan groan groan. Whew, I need some fiber in my diet.
Dare you go Bruce. I left you a nice steaming pile in your shoes.
Ho dee doe. Ho dee doe. I need a nap.. Hmmmmm
I see Farhan’s office. Da perfect place to nap.
Yep time to lie down and lick my balls.
Everyone will just think I’m Farhan anyway.
signed Muttenchops New team VP.
Jorge, Yet you have no suggestions
That won’t be enough.
Ooo, Clint Frazier… can you throw in Jacoby Ellsbury too? Maybe Greg Bird? Why do Yankee fans think Clint Frazier has any value?
He’s got vaule man. Heck if he was on the Giants now he’d be leading in all offensive categories- HR/RBI/OPS and even AVG ;/
well sure if you take someone who plays at a park that has a shorter right field fence than my former high school and place him on a team that has to hit the ball 420 feet to go out, then its no surprise he would be leading in all those categories. hunter pence would also be leading in those categories.
ok and?? He’s not a left handed hitter who cares about right field. Im certain he has the power to hit 20+ hr in a Giants uni
Frazier OPS at home: 709
Frazier OPS on road: 1.039
Anything other theories moron?
Because he does have value
-Not a Yankee fan
Might take some heat for this from fellow Braves fans but I really like Gohara, I think he could be really great he’s just got to get himself sorted out. I personally don’t want to see him moved in a deal but if it helps the teams for more than half the season (say he player brought back eventually extends with the club) I’d be alright with that.
Remember, Smith is a free agent next year, so you are only getting him for a couple of months.
I understand the use of recent comps in trying to set a baseline, there’s no discussion however whether there was a “sellers or buyers” market when those dealers were struck or in the case of Britton who was the #1 (or 2) LH RP option on the market at the time. In a different sort of deal Hand was moved last year.
Lastly for any contender with their eye on LAD, don’t you need multiple lefties in a playoff series to take on their lineup? Interestingly LAD needs a lefty as well and Zaidi said he has no issue dealing with LAD in trade. Zero way Bum goes there but Smith? LAD wins that deal by getting a “Smith” and having him not go to competitor.
Bumgarner and Smith to the Brewers for F. Peralta, C. Ray, M. Dubon, and T. Supak
Man keep Ray away. Hes another Michael Taylor from the Nats.
Bring him home braves
I’d be curious on how many teams will be attempting to trade for both Bumgarner and Smith? That has to drive up their value right?
Wouldn’t Boyd and Greene be better?
The Braves DEFINITELY need him, but the question is whether they are willing to pay the price San Francisco wants for Smith.
If the Braves want MadBum and Smith all they have to do is offer Zaidi another collection DFA scrap heap players and Zaidi will think he’s made a great deal!
I’m a Die hard Giants fan and I’m Excited to see the prospects we get back for both Mad Bum and Smith but we also have Tony Watson, Dyson and even Melancon!!I can see Mad Bum, Smith bring in some really good prospects and I can see Watson getting traded to the Dodgers
Reyes Moronta is another stud the Giants have in their bullpen. Surprised nobody is talking about him. Young, cheap and controllable.
I think the Giants hang on to Moronta so he can close when Smith is traded. Moronta also indicated he would like the opportunity to be the clubs closer.
That fresh prince reference was actually funny
Keith law’s rant is especially funny considering the Mets return really wasn’t that much worse than the Britton or Herrera packages. And the fact that they spent 30 MM bucks this offseason bringing him back.
The return was awful, then they doubled up be signing the bum.
They tried to pull a dollar store Yankees move
Practically every day the Dodgers’ bullpen needs become more desperate and blindingly obvious. Smith could be a big part of the solution but there’s no sign Friedman sees any issues with the current sucky bullpen, at least not enough to strike a deal with his former GM.
Doubt SF would trade Smith to LA. This season is painful enough for Giant fans. Watching their former closer on a float in a WS parade in downtown LA would be more than painful.
For the right price they should be willing to trade him and any other pure rental piece to any team. The Giants should have crossed the pain threshold long ago. No the barrier to making this trade would be Friedman. He has to see the bullpen as a problem in need of real fixes not just a bandaids. No signs of that so far.
I have to admit that I don’t get your front office.
This is 2 years running that you’ve needed at least one, if not two, bp pieces, yet, they get offensive help in Dozier and Muncy while dumping Watson and lose in the play offs largely due to pen then proceed to do nothing again this year. Makes no sense but as a rival (at least in good years) fine by me but still smh at their lack of grasping the obvious. Even this year, with a killer offense, you gonna beat other strong hitting teams with Joe Kelly?
Would love to see Philly get Bumgarten and Smith. If last night’s HR barrage suffered by Eickhoff isn’t proof enough that our rotation needs help, Arrieta’s plain vanilla performance this year should be. McCutchen’s season ending injury has complicated things. Prior to that, I could envision Cesar Hernandez being moved for pitching help with Kingery moving full time to 2B. Now, Kingery looks like our everyday 3B and we don’t have anyone else to play 2B, so Cesar stays. Maybe the Giants add Joe Panik to a deal if Cesar strikes their fancy?
I would be very happy if the Cubs don’t stop at Kimbrel and go after a guy like Will Smith.
The Bullpen with Cishek, Strop, Smith and Kimbrel would way more reliable in October.
Meanwhile, Hunter Pence hit his 14th HR of the season today.
Giants need to get rid of Crawford and Pillar. Crawford has a WAR of -0.1 and is hitting barely over 200. It is time to move some of the young kids along and dump the old vets who can’t produce any more. Why is Kevin Pillar in the lineup? He has a WAR of-0.6, The worst on a pedestrian Giants team. The Giants just got Dickerson and should be opening up playing time for Slater, Gerber and Dickerson. Dump both guys and look for high level A and AA prospects. And the first idiot who wants to tell me Crawford is the best shortstop in baseball need to look at the numbers. Right now Crawford is the worst shortstop in the NL West behind Storey, Tatis and Seager.
Several posters are wondering why Slater isn’t up on the big league club. As long as Bochy is managing we will not see Slater. Time to turn the page on this pathetic group of has beens..
Who would replace Crawford at short? That he never gets a day off, and has barely had any over the past five or so years, is probably why he’s struggling at the plate. Dude is just tired out. He nevertheless manages to contribute on the defensive end. No reason to stop playing him regularly.
Earl Manigault,
A ghost from the past. Living in the past. Same old tired excuses for Crawfish. Yah but, yah but. Look up the defensive matrix for Mr. Fatboy. The last golden glove 2017. It has been that long since he was in shape. He is the worst shortstop in the NL West, Behind Seager, Story and Tatis. His range continues to decline and those high-lite reel plays become fewer and farther in between. It is thinking like this that sent the Giants from the penthouse to the outhouse.
Avelino is hitting 286 in Sacto. His fielding is a step back.. But I doubt he would have a negative WAR as Crawford has. At age 24 he could be a future long term replacement.
Solano is already up with the big club. He has a better bat than Craw but he is 31 and not a rebuilding solution..
Tis the season to be trading. In the Madbum or Smith trades there will be opportunity to grab a AA or AAA shortstop who can take over the bulk of Crawford’s duties. If Crawford comes to 2020 spring ball out of shape again, he should be made a roving minor league instructor. The once unbelievable glove would be invaluable as an instructor to the young kids. But unless Crawford changes his diet and work habits, his days are done in the MLB. Several great shortstops have been able to extend their careers with a little discipline and hard work. I’m not sure that Crawford has this. desire. The time to trade Crawford was after 2017. Since then he has been pedestrian and complacent.
But, Earl you were undoubtedly one of the greatest Athletes who ever graced the basketball court. Unfortunately you also lacked the discipline needed to carve out your legend in the NBA.