Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Mets infielder Jed Lowrie still isn’t close to making his 2019 debut, manager Mickey Callaway told Tim Healey of Newsday and other reporters Wednesday. Lower body injuries have kept Lowrie from playing this season after he joined the Mets on a two-year, $20MM contract over the winter. With the season now at the halfway point, Callaway doesn’t even seem willing to commit to Lowrie taking the field at all in 2019. Asked if he expects to see Lowrie this year, Callaway said: “That’s hard to say. There’s so much of the season left. We’ll just have to play that by ear.”
Archives for July 2019
Theo Epstein On Cubs’ Slide: “Not Acceptable”
Little has gone right in recent weeks for the Cubs, who fell to 22-28 in their past 50 games with yet another defeat Wednesday. Chicago dropped its fourth straight game overall and third in a row against the Pirates, though the stage was set for a Cubs victory. Leading 5-4 entering the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs had newly signed closer Craig Kimbrel in line to slam the door. Instead, Kimbrel allowed two earned runs on a walk and a double en route to a 6-5 defeat. It was the second straight less-than-ideal showing for Kimbrel, who hasn’t turned in a clean performance in any of his three appearances since the Cubs activated him June 27.
Signing Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM contract was a bold strike by president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, an attempt to inject some much-needed life into the club. The move hasn’t done the trick to this point, though. Neither have multiple team meetings in recent days, as Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com detailed after its 18-5 loss in Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
With the Cubs having floundered since May, their front office is running out of patience as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. Epstein took to WSCR-AM 670 on Wednesday and stated there could be a “ton” of changes, even threatening to sell this month, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune were among those to cover. Epstein called the Cubs’ recent skid “not acceptable,” adding, “There have been too many words about it and not enough action.”
Epstein didn’t excuse manager Joe Maddon from blame, saying “all of us haven’t done the job.” On the field, Epstein pointed to “sloppy” base running and defense as reasons for the team’s slump. Epstein must have been apoplectic Wednesday night when a pair of defensive miscues with one out in the ninth helped sink the Cubs. Catcher Willson Contreras, who was playing right field, failed to come up with a bloop fly ball. Then, with Pirates catcher Elias Diaz on third, Cubs second baseman Addison Russell fielded a grounder and fired home instead of taking the easy out at first. Diaz beat the throw, tying the game, and the Pirates later triumphed on a Corey Dickerson sacrifice fly.
The Cubs sit a lukewarm 45-42 on the heels of their latest loss, yet they’re still in wild-card position and a mere game back of the NL Central-leading Brewers. The fact that the NL features far more middling teams than juggernauts has been a saving grace for the Cubs. However, that’s not going to cut it for Epstein, who has important choices to make in the coming weeks.
As things stand, the Cubs still seem far more likely to buy than sell, especially after having signed Kimbrel. The team could reasonably look to make upgrades throughout its roster. Even with Kimbrel in the fold, the Cubs’ relief corps has done little to inspire confidence aside from Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler and Kyle Ryan. The Cubs’ rotation took a significant hit when Cole Hamels went on the injured list with a left oblique strain last weekend, though there’s optimism he won’t miss a ton of time. Regardless, the club’s starting staff has been shaky beyond Hamels, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester. Fellow established starters Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana haven’t come close to meeting expectations this season.
Statistically, the Cubs’ position players rank sixth in the majors in fWAR, but that doesn’t mean the group is devoid of issues. Among regulars, Contreras, third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, shortstop Javier Baez, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, outfielder Jason Heyward and utilityman David Bote have all ranged from fine to excellent this year. On the other hand, when the Cubs haven’t used Bote at second, they’ve gotten little at the position from Russell, Daniel Descalso and Ben Zobrist. They promoted 26-year-old rookie Robel Garcia on Wednesday as a result. Center fielder Albert Almora has joined Descalso and Zobrist in struggling at the plate (especially against lefties). Adding to the disappointment, left fielder Kyle Schwarber hasn’t hit like the offensive cornerstone Epstein & Co. have regarded him as throughout his career.
Second base and the outfield may end up as areas the Cubs try to bolster this month, but Zobrist’s potential return complicates matters. Although Zobrist has been on the restricted list since May 7 as he deals with a divorce, Epstein indicated Wednesday he expects the 38-year-old infielder/outfielder to rejoin the team at some point. The Cubs have saved approximately $1MM per month during the absence of Zobrist, who’s on a $12.5MM salary in the last year of his contract. Zobrist’s disappearance helped the Cubs gather up the funds for Kimbrel, though they’ve largely shied away from spending since last offseason. Epstein has said the Cubs usually have “significant” money saved for in-season pickups, though, which implies a Zobrist comeback wouldn’t hinder their deadline plans from a financial standpoint. Even if it doesn’t, the Cubs will need vintage Zobrist to return – not the version who showed absolutely no power over 99 plate appearances before he took his leave.
Just as Epstein is optimistic Zobrist will put on a Cubs uniform again this season, he expects injured reliever Brandon Morrow to factor into their bullpen. Morrow was a highly valuable member of the Cubs’ relief corps in 2018, but elbow problems put an end to his season in mid-July. While the oft-injured 34-year-old has been throwing in Arizona lately as he tries to work back, per Gonzales, there’s still no clear timetable for a return.
The sliding Cubs play one more in Pittsburgh before a two-game road set against the White Sox over the weekend. After the All-Star break, they’ll face their four division foes – the Pirates, Reds, Brewers and Cardinals – as well as the playoff-contending Padres a combined 15 times in 18 games through Aug. 1. That stretch may wind up having a lot of say in how the frustrated Epstein handles the deadline.
Jesus Luzardo Suffers Lat Strain
Prized Athletics left-hander Jesus Luzardo had been nearing his major league debut, but that’s now off the table for the time being. Luzardo, out all season with a left rotator cuff strain, suffered a Grade 2 left lat strain in a Triple-A rehab start Tuesday, the team announced. There’s no timetable for Luzardo’s return from his newest injury.
This is a brutal development for the playoff-contending Athletics, who were banking on Luzardo helping to stabilize their rotation down the stretch. Luzardo, widely regarded as an elite pitching prospect, had been expected to slot into their staff after the All-Star break. The 21-year-old’s forthcoming debut would have been all the more timely with the A’s having lost their ace, Frankie Montas, to an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs on June 21.
Oakland will now have to continue waiting for Luzardo, whose ongoing absence could impact its trade deadline plans. Despite Montas’ loss, general manager David Forst suggested last week the A’s would focus more on upgrading their bullpen than their rotation around the deadline. The team may now have to reverse course in the wake of Luzardo’s setback, though. The A’s rode an underwhelming rotation to a playoff berth in 2018, but expecting it to happen again with this year’s mediocre bunch might be unrealistic.
Todd Frazier Discusses Potential Trade
As a soon-to-be free agent on a team that appears to be going nowhere in the standings, third baseman Todd Frazier looks like a potential trade chip for the Mets. With the July 31 deadline exactly four weeks out, Frazier addressed his future Wednesday, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post: “If I get traded, OK. If not, I am glad to be here as a Met. I am doing something, so it’s always good to be wanted.”
Trades aren’t anything new to Frazier, who has been part of two deals since he started his career in Cincinnati in 2011. The Reds sent Frazier to the White Sox in December 2015, and just under two calendar years later, the Pale Hose dealt him to the Yankees around the 2017 trade deadline. Frazier then joined the Yankees’ crosstown rivals the ensuing offseason on his current deal – a two-year, $17MM guarantee which Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen negotiated on his behalf.
Van Wagenen was Frazier’s agent when the veteran changed New York franchises, but now BVW is in the unique position of potentially trading away a player whose payday he secured. Frazier’s still owed about $4.31MM on his deal, a pact which has been a mixed bag for the Mets. While Frazier endured a down, injury-shortened initial campaign with the Mets, the 33-year-old has rebounded in 2019 to slash .256/.335/.450 (111 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 236 plate appearances. Frazier has aided his cause with career-best strikeout, swinging-strike and contact rates.
Everyday third basemen could be difficult to find around the deadline, which may work in the Mets’ favor if they try to trade Frazier. Considering their upward trajectory, the Nationals don’t seem likely to deal Anthony Rendon. Otherwise, aside from Frazier, there’s a wide selection of trade possibilities who profile more as part-time players or utility infielders than full-time third basemen. Pablo Sandoval, Derek Dietrich, Jonathan Villar, Neil Walker, Eric Sogard and Tim Beckham are among them.
Garrett Richards Could Return In September
Although the Padres sit below .500 (42-43) as the season nears the All-Star break, they’re still just two games back of a wild-card spot in the National League. If the team hangs in the race until late in the year, it could get back a key reinforcement in right-hander Garrett Richards. The Padres are hopeful the recovering Tommy John surgery patient will join their staff in September, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Richards went under the knife last July, effectively ending his Angels tenure, but that didn’t stop the Padres from making a strong commitment to him in free agency. The club guaranteed $15.5MM over two years to Richards, thus making him their second-biggest offseason signing behind Manny Machado.
The 31-year-old Richards earned his deal as a result of a promising stint with the Angels, a 744 2/3-inning stretch from 2011-18 in which he logged a 3.54 ERA/3.62 FIP with 7.8 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 52.5 percent groundball rate. However, injuries – not just Richards’ damaged ulnar collateral ligament – undermined him toward the end of his Angels tenure. Richards concluded his run in Los Angeles with 76 1/3 or fewer innings in each of his final three seasons with the franchise.
When Richards has been healthy enough to take the mound, he has produced like someone capable of slotting in near the top of a team’s rotation. That explains why the starter-needy Padres took a gamble on him for a somewhat expensive amount of money. The team’s current rotation could certainly use a recovered Richards, having managed only mediocre numbers overall. Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer have been good or better, as has Logan Allen across a mere three appearances. But no one from a trio consisting of Matt Strahm, Nick Margevicius and Cal Quantrill has offered a solution over a combined 33 starts.
As they continue to wait for Richards, the Padres will welcome righty Dinelson Lamet back to their rotation Thursday. The 26-year-old Lamet, like Richards, has recently seen Tommy John surgery stall his career. Lamet impressed as a rookie in 2017 before hitting the operating table in April 2018.
Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark
Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.
Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.
The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.
An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.
Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.
Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.
Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs. Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).
Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Carlos Gomez Elects Free Agency
Veteran outfielder Carlos Gomez elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment from the Mets, per the International League transactions log. He was designated for assignment over the weekend.
Gomez, 33, ripped a trio of home runs in his brief reunion with the Mets — including a go-ahead three-run shot not long after being selected from the minor leagues. However, his overall body of work in his return to Queens, where he made his MLB debut as a 21-year-old back in 2007, proved underwhelming. In 99 trips to the plate, the two-time All-Star and former Gold Glover hit just .198/.278/.337 with 30 strikeouts.
Gomez had a solid season with the Rangers back in 2017, but his brief All-Star peak from 2013-14 is now a distant memory. Gomez batted a combined .284/.347/.491 with 47 homers, 74 steals and strong defense in that stretch, racking up 12.3 WAR along the way. Since that brilliant pair of seasons, he’s hit a combined .236/.311/.395 in 1863 plate appearances. He’s not the elite runner he once was, but Gomez still possesses above-average speed (79th percentile in average sprint speed, per Statcast) and is experienced at all three outfield spots, making him a reasonable minor league pickup for a team in need of outfield depth.
162 Games Of Shohei Ohtani
The Angels had far more important things on their mind Tuesday, a night in which they mourned the loss of friend and teammate Tyler Skaggs, but their game against the Rangers marked Shohei Ohtani’s 162nd as a part of their offense. Injuries have prevented the two-way phenom from making a greater impact since he emigrated from Japan entering the 2018 season, but in the full season he has played, Ohtani has more than matched the overwhelming hype that accompanied his arrival.
Although there wasn’t much question Ohtani would turn into a front-line starter when he left his homeland for the majors, there was plenty of doubt regarding how well he’d fare as a hitter. It turns out Ohtani has made more of a mark on the offensive end to this point, though the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery last October is partially the reason for that. The righty-throwing Ohtani accumulated only 51 2/3 and 10 starts in 2018, when he logged a terrific 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP with 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9.
Ohtani’s pitching numbers will stay in place until he returns to the mound from his TJ procedure in 2020. That same surgery stopped Ohtani from making his 2019 debut as a hitter until May 7, but the DH has more than made up for lost time in the nearly two months since then.
The lefty-swinging Ohtani burst on the scene last year with a .285/.361/.564 line (152 wRC+) and 22 home runs in 367 plate appearances. Thanks to that and his output on the mound, Ohtani rightly took home American League Rookie of the Year honors. While Ohtani hasn’t been quite as strong this year on a rate basis, he has still been a premier hitter, evidenced by his 142 wRC+.
Across 195 trips to the plate, Ohtani has slashed .303/.359/.554 with 12 homers. Now, 162 games and 562 PA into his career as a major league batter, Ohtani owns a .291/.360/.561 slash – good for an exemplary 148 wRC+ – with 34 homers. His .269 isolated power ranks 10th in the majors since 2018, wedging him between the powerful duo of Khris Davis and Luke Voit. The speedy Ohtani has added 14 steals on 19 tries for good measure, giving him a 3.9 fWAR over a full season as a major league offensive player.
Ohtani was marvelous last year and has been again this season, though there are some differences in the way he has compiled his production. Ohtani’s pulling pitches less, hitting far more grounders and far fewer fly balls, all of which has led to a power decrease. He’s still formidable in that department, though. An uptick in line drives has helped Ohtani rank near the absolute top of the majors in expected slugging percentage (86th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (89th percentile), hard-hit percentage (94th percentile), expected batting average (95th percentile) and average exit velocity (99th percentile), according to Statcast. The difference between his .378 xwOBA and .382 wOBA, both of which rank in the top 40 among hitters with at least 150 PA, is negligible.
It’s unwise to draw conclusions from such a small sample, yet it’s worth noting the lefty-swinging Ohtani has been much better against same-handed pitchers than he was a year ago. As FanGraphs’ heat maps indicate (2018, 2019), Ohtani showed no power versus lefties when they threw pitches belt high or lower on the outer half last season. That hasn’t been the case at all this year, on the other hand. At the same time, he has taken tremendous steps forward against breaking pitches in general – after managing a .292/.300 wOBA/xwOBA versus such offerings in 2018, he’s up to .414/.363 a couple months into the current season. Ohtani has shown further growth as a hitter by chasing less outside the zone, swinging and missing at fewer pitches and making much more contact than he did during his rookie campaign.
There is room for improvement when it comes to plate discipline for Ohtani, whose K/BB ratio has hung around the league average in each of his two seasons. And he could have a difficult time continuing to uphold a .350 batting average, which he recorded last year and has again this season. However, as a fast runner who hits the ball hard and amasses a lot of grounders and liners, his skill set is conducive to a high BABIP.
Several months before Ohtani’s much-ballyhooed free-agent derby began, MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom surveyed scouts on what type of major league hitter he’d become. They didn’t forecast an elite-caliber offensive player, but that’s what Ohtani has been through his first full season at the plate. The fact that the two-way force hasn’t really begun to realize his potential as a pitcher is all the more thrilling for the Angels and all the more concerning for the rest of the league.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles’ Josh Rogers Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Orioles left-hander Josh Rogers underwent his second Tommy John surgery today, manager Brandon Hyde announced to reporters (Twitter links via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). He’ll miss the remainder of the 2019 season and, in all likelihood, the bulk of the 2020 campaign as well. Rogers also underwent Tommy John surgery in high school back in 2013.
Rogers, 24, came to the Orioles as part of the trade that sent Zack Britton to the division-rival Yankees prior to last year’s non-waiver trade deadline. At the time, he looked like a near-MLB-ready arm that could occupy a spot at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen. Last year saw Rogers pitch to a combined 3.54 ERA in 139 2/3 innings between the Triple-A affiliates for the two organizations. Given his proximity to the Majors, he was viewed as a candidate to log a fair share of innings for the Orioles in the first full season of their rebuild.
However, Rogers has struggled immensely both in the Majors and in Triple-A this season, logging an ERA north of 8.00 in a combined 69 1/3 innings. It’s certainly possible that issues in his elbow contributed to his poor results in 2019, though. While he’s not considered a premium prospect, Rogers ranked 28th among Baltimore farmhands heading into the season, according to Baseball America, who tabbed him as a potential fifth starter. For an Orioles club that is desperately thin on arms behind John Means, Andrew Cashner and Dylan Bundy, that would’ve been a most welcome outcome. Rogers is the second pitching prospect acquired in last summer’s fire sale to undergo Tommy John surgery this year, joining fellow righty Zach Pop, whom the Orioles acquired as part of their return for Manny Machado.
Instead, the Orioles have looked to a pair of minor trades to try to help stop the bleeding in the final two spots of the rotation. Baltimore acquired right-hander Tom Eshelman from the Phillies in exchange for international bonus money last month and acquired righty Asher Wojciechowski from the Indians in exchange for cash on Monday this week. Eshelman made his big league debut Monday, and the well-traveled Wojciechowski followed him in the rotation last night. There will likely be plenty of fluctuation in the composition of the team’s rotation between now and season’s end, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the out-of-options Wojciechowski will remain in the starting five for now.
Carlos Gonzalez Elects Free Agency
Cubs outfielder Carlos Gonzalez cleared waivers and elected free agency after being designated for assignment last week, manager Joe Maddon told reporters today (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune).
Gonzalez, 33, joined the Cubs on his second minor league deal of the season in late May and was selected to the Major League roster just days later. Unfortuately, CarGo’s time in Chicago didn’t go much better than his brief stint in Cleveland. After hitting .210/.282/.276 through 117 plate appearances with the Indians, Gonzalez batted only .175/.306/.300 in 49 plate appearances with the Cubs. He’s punched out in 31.3 percent of his plate appearances between the two teams.
While there’s plenty of name value attached to Gonzalez, a three-time All-Star and former MVP candidate, it’s been a few years since he delivered particularly strong offense. Dating back to 2017, Gonzalez has batted .260/.328/.423 (86 OPS+) and seen his power diminish. He did enjoy a strong all-around year in 2016 and crack 40 homers in 2015, but the combined .285/.337/.522 line he put together in those two seasons is well in the rear-view mirror at this point. While another club could very well look to roll the dice on a player with such a strong track record, it seems likely that he’ll have to settle for a third minor league deal.
