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Archives for March 2020

Max Scherzer Dealing With Side Discomfort

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Star Nationals hurler Max Scherzer said today that he’s dealing with some discomfort in his side, as MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato (links to Twitter) was among those to report.

The issue led the team to give him a break from a scheduled competitive spring outing. But the excellent right-hander was still capable of throwing a 60-pitch pen session.

Scherzer says he’s dealing with an “ailment,” not an injury. The muscles in that region are a bit over-taxed after his last start, he explained, but he’s “absolutely not” concerned.

“There’s not even a strain,” Scherzer said, emphasizing that he won’t need to undergo an MRI. “This is purely just a fatigue, endurance thing,” he said.

Scherzer has been one of the game’s ultimate workhorses in recent seasons, but did miss a handful of starts in 2019. The long-dominant hurler also dealt with a neck issue during the World Series.

The champion Nats pushed their top arms to the limit last October, so they’ll need to mindful as they ramp back up in camp. Scherzer is 35 years of age, it’s fair to note, though he obviously pushes himself to remain in peak shape and he says his elbow and shoulder are in great form.

Eric Lauer To Open Season On Injured List

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Brewers lefty Eric Lauer will open the season on the injured list, manager Craig Counsell told reporters including Jake Rill of MLB.com (via Twitter). He’s dealing with an impingement in his pitching shoulder.

Fortunately, it seems there’s not much worry within the Milwaukee organization. The specifics of Lauer’s potential timeline aren’t yet evident, but there’s no indication he will be sidelined for a significant stretch of the season.

It’s still a shame to see Lauer hit the shelf just now. He had run up nine strikeouts against just one walk and one earned run in his 5 1/3 innings in camp. The recently acquired southpaw has thrown 261 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball to this point in his MLB career.

Having prioritized depth and flexibility in constructing their pitching staff, the Brewers have options on hand. Recently extended hurler Freddy Peralta is a candidate, as is Corbin Burnes. Veterans Jake Faria and Shelby Miller are in camp on non-roster deals, though neither seems likely to command a rotation spot. Trey Supak is the other possibility on the 40-man roster.

Just what will happen when Lauer is ready to return isn’t yet clear, but the Brewers surely aren’t all that concerned. No doubt the southpaw will have ample chances to log innings so long as he’s up to the task. Under Counsell and GM David Stearns, the club has deployed its staff as circumstances warrant, without much regard to formal roles.

Yordan Alvarez Still Not Ready To Return

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11:48am: GM James Click says the hope is for Alvarez to return on Friday, as Rome further reports. There’s no new concern, it seems. Alvarez has simply not progressed quite as quickly as hoped. Click indicate he still believes Alvarez will be ready for Opening Day.

9:52am: Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez has been dealing with a seemingly minor knee injury. But it’s an increasing threat to his readiness for the upcoming season.

Houston manager Dusty Baker says that Alvarez won’t appear on Wednesday as had been scheduled, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. His precise timeline is unclear and it’s now uncertain whether he’ll be able to on the active roster on Opening Day.

Alvarez did say just yesterday that he has seen improvement in the joint, as Rome reported. And he expressed optimism about his ability to return for the start of the season.

The precise issue isn’t entirely clear, but Alvarez has indicated it is more or less the same sort of discomfort he faced during the 2019 season. Those problems didn’t prevent him from marauding through MLB pitching, but there’s obviously ample good reason to ensure that the 22-year-old is at full health in advance of his sophomore campaign.

At the moment, there’s no indication that any invasive or other more significant treatment is under consideration. The ’Stros can afford to be patient. While the team would unquestionably miss Alvarez’s big left-handed bat during any absence, it can fill in by handing over more opportunities to Kyle Tucker and others.

Gardenhire Confirms Joe Jimenez Will Be Tigers Closer

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Tigers skipper Ron Gardenhire confirmed today that right-hander Joe Jimenez will function as the team’s primary closer, Craig Mish of Sports Grid reports on Twitter.

This hardly rates as a surprise. Gardenhire had already made clear he viewed Jimenez as the top ninth-inning option heading into camp (as The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen tweeted late last year).

Still, the confirmation of Jimenez’s role is worthy of note, as it wasn’t fully assured when camp opened. The 25-year-old has a dozen saves under his belt but hardly entered Spring Training with a lengthy history of locking down victories. After four scoreless appearances, Jimenez remains on track for the gig.

More importantly, the decision is critical to Jimenez’s contractual future. He’s readying for a key platform season. Reliever arbitration salaries are highly dependent upon saves tallies, so the opportunity to accrue them from the jump promises to boost his earning power substantially.

It’s possible to imagine some different outcomes for Jimenez’s future. The Tigers could consider approaching him about an extension. It’s also possible to imagine a mid-season trade.

Jimenez was reportedly asked about by contending teams at last year’s trade deadline. While he ended the season with only a 4.37 ERA, his second-straight campaign in that ballpark, Jimenez racked up a hefty 12.4 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 while delivering a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. If he can make a few tweaks — such as limiting the long ball (nearly two per nine in 2019) — Jimenez could emerge as a truly dominant late-inning reliever.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins set out in search of “impact” pitching but instead signed a position player to the second-largest contract in franchise history and added a host of mid-rotation arms.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

Extensions

  • Miguel Sano, 1B/3B: Three years, $30MM (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Twins surprised onlookers in 2019 not only by winning the American League Central but by doing so in a decisive fashion thanks to a powerhouse lineup that shocked the baseball world with a Major League-record 307 home runs. But their rotation was a more middle-of-the-pack unit, and the vast majority of it — Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez —  reached free agency at season’s end. Minnesota issued a $17.8MM qualifying offer to Odorizzi, and he made the somewhat surprising decision to accept. This winter’s free-agent market was vastly more active and player-friendly than the previous two, so perhaps he’d prefer a mulligan on that decision, but Odorizzi maintains that he has no regrets.

With Odorizzi on board alongside Jose Berrios, the Twins at least had a pair of quality arms on which to rely, but president of baseball ops Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine opened the winter by declaring their intent to acquire “impact” starting pitching. Minnesota entered the winter with a projected 2020 payroll of just $64MM and with only two players (Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco) guaranteed anything beyond the 2020 season. Their measured approach to free agency a year ago and their cost-efficient young core left them with plenty of immediate and long-term flexibility.

That said, adding “impact” pitching was still a rather lofty goal when considering the short supply of high-end talent available; Gerrit Cole was always projected to sign a record-setting contract — though few predicted his eventual $324MM price tag — and Stephen Strasburg wasn’t expected to be too far behind. (As it turns out, he briefly set a new record for starting pitcher contracts, signing days before Cole.)

The only real “impact” arms available beyond that duo were Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Madison Bumgarner — and the extent to which “impact” describes them is rather debatable. None of the bunch is a clear ace, be it for durability reasons, consistency of track record or some combination of the two. Ultimately, the Twins were spurned by both Wheeler — who reportedly had a strong East Coast preference — and Ryu. Their interest in Bumgarner wasn’t as high, and the longtime Giants star said after signing with the D-backs that Arizona was his top choice anyhow.

While the trade market normally presents an alternative avenue, there simply weren’t any top-of-the-rotation arms readily available this winter, with the possible exception of Corey Kluber. But Kluber is coming off an injury-ruined year, and it was never likely that the Indians would trade the former Cy Young winner to the reigning division champs.

Josh Donaldson

The Twins, then, were left with a choice: make short-term and/or smaller investments once again in hopes of spending the considerable financial resources at their disposal down the road … or pivot and sign the most talented player available to them. They opted for the latter, emerging as a dark-horse candidate for Josh Donaldson and eventually landing the former AL MVP on a four-year, $92MM deal — the second-largest contract in club history.

The “Bringer of (Purple) Rain” is already 34 years old, so there’s some clear age-related risk. But Donaldson also posted an outstanding .259/.379/.521 slash with 37 home runs, 33 doubles and, importantly, excellent third-base glovework in 2019. And by moving Miguel Sano (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -5 Outs Above Average) across the diamond in favor of Donaldson (15 DRS, 8 OAA), the Twins should substantially help their pitching staff. The Donaldson deal might not look great by years three and four of the contract, but it’s a win-now move that bolsters their chances in 2020-21.

With Donaldson penciled into the heart of the order, the Twins didn’t have much else to do in terms of their starting lineup. Max Kepler will again man right field, and the Twins will hope that healthier iterations of Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario will comprise a quality outfield trio on both sides of the ball. Jorge Polanco should again be the primary shortstop, while sophomore Luis Arraez (.334/.399/.439 in 366 plate appearances) will get the nod at second base. Nelson Cruz will be back for a second season at designated hitter. Mitch Garver is lined up for regular catching duties after a 2019 breakout. Utilitymen Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza can play just about anywhere in the event of an injury.

Even if their big move was adding a third baseman, the Twins still addressed the pitching staff in multiple smaller ways. Pineda will return on an affordable two-year deal, although he’ll miss the first 39 games of the year under a league-reduced 60-game suspension after he tested positive for a banned diuretic.

Veterans Homer Bailey and Rich Hill both joined the mix on New Year’s Eve, signing low-cost one-year pacts. Bailey enjoyed his first full, healthy season since 2013 last year and flashed some positive secondary metrics that were more appealing than his base 4.57 ERA. Hill was terrific when healthy in ’19 but won’t pitch until at least June after undergoing primary repair surgery.

Most expected the Twins to be done with that set of additions, but they emerged as the third team in trade talks with the Dodgers and Red Sox as those clubs tried to sort out a Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster. Minnesota originally got in on the deal by agreeing to send prized prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston in exchange for the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda. The Red Sox balked after viewing Graterol’s medical records, claiming surprise that he profiled more as a reliever. When that iteration of the deal was scrapped, the Dodgers worked out a separate trade to ship Maeda to Minneapolis, taking Graterol and other pieces themselves back in return. Weeks later, it emerged that Maeda had asked out of L.A. — seemingly frustrated by his lack of a consistent rotation spot, which the Twins can surely provide.

A Twins club that entered the winter with one clear big league starter on the roster (Berrios) will enter 2020 with Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Bailey, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe and perhaps non-roster invitee Jhoulys Chacin all as options in the starting mix. Pineda (mid-May) and Hill (June or July) aren’t expected to be far behind. It may not be an imposing group of names, but it’s a suddenly deep reservoir from which to draw. The group doesn’t look markedly better or markedly worse than the collection of arms the Twins rode to a division title in 2019, but it still seems like they’ll be in the mix for the ever-elusive “impact” starter this summer as they look to end a comically lengthy postseason slump.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins added some steady veterans to fill complementary roles. Alex Avila will join his third AL Central club as the backup to Garver. Avila’s sky-high strikeout rates and low batting averages are a turnoff for many, but he’s an on-base machine (career 14.4 percent walk rate) who hits for some power, frames pitches well and throws well.

Minnesota’s bullpen emerged as a quietly deep unit down the stretch in 2019, buoyed by big performances from closer Taylor Rogers, setup men Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, and rookie starter-turned-reliever Zack Littell. The Twins added to that mix by re-signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal with an option and by inking well-traveled veteran Tyler Clippard to a one-year pact. Romo shined in a high-leverage role with the Twins after being acquired from the Marlins last summer. Clippard could be an important piece due to his ability to retire left-handed hitters (.182/.256/.321 over the past three seasons combined); the new three-batter minimum makes effectiveness against both righties and lefties more critical, and this winter’s market was noticeably light on quality left-handed relievers.

The other notable piece of offseason business for the Twins was Sano’s new contract. It’s extraordinarily rare to see a player with four-plus years of big league service take a deal that delays his path to free agency in exchange for just one additional guaranteed year — and even rarer for that deal to include a club option. Over the past decade, former Braves third baseman Chris Johnson is the only position player to sign a three-year extension with a club option at this stage of his career.

Sano has dealt with myriad injuries in his career to this point and has been inconsistent when healthy. That surely impacted his decision to take the deal and was factored in by the organization in its offer. The end result is that in 2022 — the first of Sano’s would-be free-agent years — the Twins will control him, Polanco and Kepler (last winter’s extension recipients) for a combined $21.5MM. If Sano’s $14MM option is exercised in 2023, that trio will be owed $30MM. Combine that with Maeda’s annual $3.125MM base salary (also through 2023), and the Twins have done a nice job in establishing some cost certainty over the long run.

Other extensions could yet follow for Minnesota. The Twins tried to work out a long-term deal with Berrios a year ago and could do so again between now and Opening Day. Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, but the 39-year-old has made clear he plans to continue playing. Minnesota has talked to his agents already. Byron Buxton seems a plausible candidate as well. In the bullpen, a preemptive run at signing May before he reaches free agency at season’s end or a long-term deal with Rogers could be sensible pursuits. Last year’s breakout aside, there’s probably less urgency with the late-blooming Garver, who is already 29 years old and controlled through his age-33 season.

2020 Outlook

With a serviceable rotation, a quietly strong bullpen and what could be MLB’s most potent lineup, the Twins enter the 2020 season as the favorites in the AL Central. They’ll try to stave off an Indians club that cut spending and a White Sox organization that went the other direction, significantly ramping up payroll.  But last year’s Minnesota roster bested Cleveland by eight games and Chicago by 28.5 games. The Indians look like a worse team now than they did in 2019, and while the ChiSox are unequivocally improved, wiping out that kind of deficit would be a stunning accomplishment.

Rotation help could very well be on the summer wishlist again, depending on the health and productivity of their incumbent options. But after toiling away in futility for much of their time since the opening of Target Field in 2010, the Twins finally look like a team poised for some sustainable success.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Twins' offseason?
B 53.85% (2,286 votes)
A 36.84% (1,564 votes)
C 7.40% (314 votes)
F 1.08% (46 votes)
D 0.82% (35 votes)
Total Votes: 4,245

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pirates Have Initiated Extension Talks With Four Players

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The Pirates have launched exploratory talks with at least four players about possible long-term deals, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Jon Heyman of MLB Network had previously reported that the club intended to explore deals of this kind with some young talent.

Among the targets are outfielder Bryan Reynolds, middle infielder Kevin Newman, and starter Joe Musgrove — all relatively youthful, quality MLB players. The Bucs have also approached top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, per the report.

As we discussed when the initial news arose, this is hardly surprising in the full context. The Bucs, like many lower-budget organizations, have long relied upon early-career extensions to achieve value. And there are indications that there’s a broader push to lock up relatively inexperienced players around the game, though we’ve yet to see an onrush of dealmaking.

There are some interesting elements here, though. Hayes is an especially intriguing target since he has yet to appear in the big leagues. That’s no longer a barrier to an extension, as we’ve seen several such accords, but it’s also not exactly commonplace.

Most recently, Luis Robert lined up on a $50MM deal — a record-setting number for a pre-MLB player. But he has risen to the ranks of the the most elite prospects in the game. And he had already secured a huge bonus ($26MM) when he signed as an amateur. Suffice to say, Robert had ample leverage.

Hayes is generally regarded as one of the fifty or so best prospects in the game, so he’s not to Robert’s level of future expectations. Perhaps a better comparable is Scott Kingery, who was promised $24MM in his agreement with the Phillies two years back. It’s arguable the market has moved north since that time, so Hayes would be justified in viewing that as a starting point.

Also of note: the lack of talks — so far as is known publicly — between the Pirates and star first baseman Josh Bell. The Bucs already agreed to a $4.8MM arbitration salary with the 27-year-old, who is coming off of a breakout 2019 season. Bell would surely cost a far sight more than any of the players listed above.

Out Of Options 2020

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s helpful sources.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Red Sox

Rangers

Rays

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Camp Battles: Nationals’ No. 5 Starter

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When it comes to the Nationals’ rotation, this much is a near certainty: If healthy, it should be among the game’s premier starting staffs in 2020. That was the case last year when Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez combined for 123 regular-season starts of high-end production to help the team to a playoff berth. Those four were also important contributors during the Nationals’ first-ever run to a World Series championship in the fall, and all of them are set to reprise their roles in the club’s staff this season. The last position in the starting five is up for grabs, though, and it’s a three-way battle to win the spot. Two of those players are out of minor league options, meaning one of the runners-up could end up in a different organization soon if he doesn’t at least land in the Nationals’ bullpen. Here’s a look at the contenders…

  • Joe Ross, RHP (out of options): Ross delivered terrific results as a member of the Nationals’ rotation from 2015-16, but injuries helped cut him down in the ensuing two seasons. He did amass 64 innings last regular season, though most of that work came from the bullpen, and Ross wound up with an unspectacular 5.48 ERA/4.59 FIP. However, as MLBTR’s TC Zencka pointed out over the weekend, Ross was far more impressive in his nine starts than during his 18 relief appearances. Despite just 7.66 K/9 against 4.43 BB/9 in a starting role, the 26-year-old pitched to a stingy 3.02 ERA (with a solid 3.86 FIP) in 44 2/3 innings. For what it’s worth, Ross has picked up where he left off this spring, having yielded two earned runs on four hits and four walks (three strikeouts) over 7 1/3 frames.
  • Erick Fedde, RHP (one option remaining): Fedde totaled the fifth-most starts (12) among Nationals last year, but the results weren’t all that pleasing. He logged a 4.50 ERA/5.34 FIP with 4.73 K/9 and 3.81 BB/9 across 78 frames. That continued a trend of unspectacular major league production for Fedde, Washington’s first-round pick in 2014. Fedde has shown a penchant for inducing ground balls (52.8 percent), though, and has joined Ross in tossing 7 1/3 effective innings this spring. So far, the 27-year-old has given up two earned runs on five hits and four walks (seven strikeouts). But the fact that Fedde has an option left may not do him any favors in the fight for a roster spot in D.C.
  • Austin Voth, RHP (out of options): Voth, 27, was quietly effective out of Washington’s rotation in 2019, when he recorded a 3.30 ERA/3.79 FIP and excellent strikeout/walk numbers (9.07 K/9, 2.68 BB/9). An uptick in velocity helped – after averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball the previous year, the mean climbed to 92.8, helping lead to an almost 5 percent increase in swinging-strike rate. Likewise, Voth held his own over 61 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball, where he notched a 4.40 ERA/3.85 FIP, struck out just under 10 hitters per nine and only walked a bit more than two. And Voth has continued to impress this spring, with one run allowed, six strikeouts and one walk through seven frames.

Rockies Release Harrison Musgrave

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The Rockies have released left-handed reliever Harrison Musgrave, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The club previously outrighted him off its 40-man roster last summer.

Now 26 years old, Musgrave entered the professional ranks as an eighth-round pick of the Rockies in 2014. He received his first promotion to Colorado in 2018 despite posting less-than-stellar numbers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in the preceding couple years. With 44 2/3 innings as a rookie, Musgrave finished seventh among Rockies relievers in that category, though he struggled to prevent runs in that span. Musgrave could only muster a 4.63 ERA/5.31 FIP with 6.45 K/9, 4.43 BB/9 and a 38.3 percent groundball rate then.

Last season went down as an injury-shortened one for Musgrave, who battled elbow issues. His production in Colorado took steps forward, though it was in a much smaller sample of work. Across 10 innings, Musgrave allowed four earned runs on nine hits, seven walks and 12 strikeouts. He mostly spent the year in Triple-A Albuquerque, where he pitched to a whopping 10.13 ERA over 24 frames.

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