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Latest On Dodgers’ Pitching Plans

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The Dodgers have no shortage of options for their starting rotation. Even after trading Kenta Maeda to the Twins, Los Angeles has Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Alex Wood, Julio Urías, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Ross Stripling and Jimmy Nelson on the 40-man roster. So too is prospect Mitchell White, but he doesn’t figure to be in the mix out of the gate after posting a 6.50 ERA in 63.2 innings at Triple-A last year.

That’s plenty for manager Dave Roberts to work with, but he offered a bit of clarity on the situation today. Urías will open the season in the rotation, Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). Gonsolin, it seems, will not be in that mix, Castillo adds. Roberts noted the 25-year-old has a chance to break camp with the club as a reliever, though.

A relief role is not in the cards for the club’s top pitching prospect. May is currently viewed as a starting pitcher only, Castillo relays. The 22-year-old thus seems likely to open the season in the rotation at Triple-A Oklahoma City, he adds.

None of this news is especially surprising, although it does shine some light on the situation. Gonsolin made six starts (and five relief appearances) for L.A. in 2019. The former ninth-rounder was effective in his 40 MLB innings, working to a 2.93 ERA with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate. Impressively, he compiled a 4.35 ERA/4.38 FIP in 41.1 innings in the hitter-friendly PCL. Baseball America’s #82 overall prospect, Gonsolin’s long-term future is presumably still as a starter. Given the Dodgers’ pitching depth, though, it seems his immediate path to big league innings is in relief.

That won’t be the case for Urías, who actually worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2019. His results (2.49 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 38.7% ground ball rate) were even better than Gonsolin’s. That pen role was never expected to be permanent, though. Still just 23 and once the game’s consensus top pitching prospect, Urías’ 2019 innings were constrained a bit by health troubles. After logging nearly 80 innings last year, it seems he’s ready to shoulder a starter’s workload again.

May, too, served in a swing role in 2019 after making his MLB debut in August. BA’s #20 overall prospect, he showed well in his limited time in the show. He only made five starts at Triple-A before his promotion, though, and an early minor-league assignment, if indeed that comes to fruition, could help the club keep his innings in check as well.

If it weren’t clear already, Roberts has no problem deploying the pitching staff in a nontraditional manner. There’ll be ample innings to go around, and the club will surely rely on more than five of the names above to start games over the course of the year. If healthy, Buehler, Kershaw and Price seem like locks to take the ball every fifth day, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few different names penciled in behind them as the year progresses. That runoff should also aid a bullpen that is the closest thing the Dodgers have to a weakness. It’s an enviable situation for the NL West favorites.

Health Notes: Paxton, Rodgers, Morrow, Buttrey

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As spring training games kick off, let’s check in on some injury situations around the game.

  • The early stages of James Paxton’s recovery from February back surgery have been promising, reports Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Paxton is “optimistic” he’ll begin a throwing program around ten days from now, relays Ackert. Paxton suggested he could be back in the Yankees’ rotation by May, which would be at the early end of the three to four month estimate for his recovery immediately post-surgery. A prompt return from the southpaw is perhaps even more important with Luis Severino now dealing with uncertainty of his own. The 31-year-old Paxton posted a solid 3.82 ERA with strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (8.7%) rates over 150.2 innings in his first season in pinstripes in 2019.
  • Rockies’ infielder Brendan Rodgers is ahead of schedule in his own recovery from surgery. The season-ending shoulder procedure he underwent last June was expected to keep him out until sometime in May, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com, but that timetable could be moving up. Rodgers is hitting without pain, Harding reports, and the infielder estimated he could log reps at DH by March 3. The next step, Harding adds, is for Rodgers to begin a throwing program from shortstop, although he’s already throwing from 160 feet without pain, he says. The former top prospect tells Harding not to rule out a potential Opening Day return.
  • In less promising news, Cubs’ reliever Brandon Morrow has been shut down “for at least a few days” with a “mild right upper chest strain,” reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter link). Morrow’s timetable for return is unclear, Bastian adds. Standing alone, a non-arm problem wouldn’t be all that worrisome at this stage of spring training. With Morrow’s litany of prior injuries, though, it’s certainly concerning to hear he’s again fighting through pain. Morrow re-signed with the Cubs on a minor-league deal this offseason after injuries wrecked his first two years with the organization. When healthy, the 35-year-old has proven a highly-effective option in the late innings.
  • Another high-leverage reliever, Angels’ right-hander Ty Buttrey, expects to throw off a mound by next Thursday, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Buttrey suffered an intercostal strain last week, but it never seemed particularly serious. He should be a full go for Opening Day, Fletcher adds.

Red Sox Hire Jerry Narron As Bench Coach

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The Red Sox have hired Jerry Narron to serve as Ron Roenicke’s bench coach, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Narron had spent the last three seasons in the same role with the Diamondbacks.

Although it’s a change of scenery for Narron, he should inherit a fairly familiar situation. It won’t be the first time he’ll have held the title of Red Sox bench coach; in 2003, he was second-in-command to manager Grady Little for Boston’s run to the ALCS. He’s also coached in tandem with new Sox manager Ron Roenicke, working as Milwaukee’s bench coach concurrent with Roenicke’s five-year stint as the Brewer skipper.

Narron brings to the table his own experience as a Major League manager, having presided over the Rangers and Reds in the early 2000s for 633 total games. His teams compiled a 291-341 record in his career and never appeared in postseason play.

Between his days as a coach and Major League catcher, the 64-year-old Narron has been around the MLB game for 32 seasons—not to mention plenty more coaching and playing in the minor leagues.

White Sox Sign Aaron Bummer To Five-Year Extension

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The Chicago White Sox signed Aaron Bummer to a five-year, $16MM contract extension, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The deal also includes two option years that could raise the overall value to $29.5MM, per Nightengale. Nightengale notes that it’s the “largest extension given to a non-closer who has yet to qualify for salary arbitration in #MLB history.” Bummer is represented by O’Connell Sports Management.

Bummer, 26, evolved into a reliable lefty out of the pen for the ChiSox last season, and he’s now set to burn worms on the Southside through the 2026 campaign. Bummer will make $1MM this season, $2MM in 2021, $2.5MM in 2022, $3.75MM in 2023, and $5.5MM in 2024. The option years are for $7.25MM and $7.5MM, respectively, with $1.25MM buyouts, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The 2026 option could escalate to $9MM with a second- or third-place finish in the AL Reliever of the Year voting, or $10MM if he wins the award, according to The Athletic’s James Fegan.

The White Sox are getting one of the game’s premier groundball artists at rates that carry minimal risk. The investment signals both their confidence in Bummer, and their continued commitment to longevity for the incoming core. Bummer was among the best in the game at limiting barrels last season (2.3% barrel%) and well as opponents’ expected slugging percentage (.281 xSLG). Bummer’s sinker drives his arsenal, and it jumped in velocity last year to an average of 95.6 mph. In 58 games out of the pen last season, the southpaw produced a 72.1 GB%, ranking behind only the Yankees’ Zack Britton in that regard.

Big picture, Bummer joins Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez as White Sox to have been extended through 2026 (including option years). The ChiSox now have a long-term piece in their bullpen to add some stability to that area of the club. In an era of flame-throwing strikeout artists, Bummer also brings a different approach. Should he continue to pitch as he did last season (2.13 ERA/3.41 FIP), the Sox will happily charge him with care of their late innings.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reynolds, Newman, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Flaherty

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The Pirates are more likely than not to land outside the playoff picture in 2020, but they’ve not given up the notion of wreaking some havoc on the NL Central this year. To do so, however, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman will need to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. True enough, Reynolds and Newman came out the gate strong in 2019, posting 3.2 fWAR and 2.4 fWAR, respectively. And yet, teaming their rookie duo with Josh Bell’s breakout bat still only amounted to the 20th-ranked offense by runs scored (758 runs), 19th by wRC+ (92). Beyond these three, the other two Pirates rounding out their top-5 by wRC+ in 2019 now play for different teams (Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson), and the sixth is a pitcher (Steven Brault). Immediately upon the close of 2019, the Pirates had planned to give Brault a go as a two-way player, but with new leadership up and down the organization, it’s unclear what his role will be. Regardless, Jarrod Dyson is the biggest addition made the to position player group this winter. Reynolds and Newman are core pieces of this lineup, and the good news is this: if they do slump in their sophomore seasons, they should have enough leash to find their way back. Let’s jump from the bottom of the NL Central to the top and check in with the reigning divisional champs…

  • As Spring Training games kick off (weather permitting), hitters around the league are putting their offseason swing adjustments to the test. Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader, and Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals will all be deploying tweaked swings to some degree as they seek the kind of offensive consistency that eluded the trio last year, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldy was the most successful of the three, but his fortunes at the plate sunk and fell seemingly on a monthly basis, and he never quite settled into the type of season to which he is accustomed. A .260 BA was his lowest mark since 2012 by almost thirty points, and while his power remained decidedly above average, it did drop from the astronomical heights of the couple seasons prior. Still, even in a down year, Goldy produced 16% more offense than average. Any substantive regression to his career norms should be enough to raise Goldy’s stock back to the level of franchise cornerstone where the Cardinals expected him to be when they acquired him for three players and a pick last winter.
  • Unsurprisingly, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt wasted no time in naming Jack Flaherty their opening day starter, tweets Goold. Flaherty drove the Cardinals second half push to 91 wins and their first divisional crown since 2015. Who follows Flaherty in the rotation is a more compelling question for those in Cardinals camp this spring. There are no shortage of options, from rotation holdovers like Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas, to former ace Carlos Martinez, to newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim. Adam Wainwright will be somewhere in the rotation after a rejuvenating 14-10 season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/4.36 FIP across 31 starts. The bridge from Flaherty to Wainwright (to Chris Carpenter to Matt Morris) is a tangible reminder of the Cardinals’ institutional success. 2007, Wainright’s first season as a starter, remains the only losing season the Cards have suffered this century (they went 78-84 and finished in third place).

White Sox Extend Leury Garcia’s Contract To Include 2021 Team Option

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The Chicago White Sox signed Leury Garcia to a one-year, $3.5MM guaranteed deal today, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The deal includes a $3.25MM base salary for 2020 with a $3.5MM team option for 2021. The White Sox can decline next year’s option with a $250K buyout. Garcia’s deal takes the place of the one he signed in January to avoid arbitration, giving the team the option of a second season. Garcia is a client of Rep 1 Baseball.

Garcia, 29 in March, has been a longstanding member of the White Sox. He joined the club midseason in 2013 from the Texas Rangers in a trade for Alexis Rios. He had been a part-time player every season since the deal until last year when he started 135 games for Chicago, the largest chunk of which came in centerfield, though he spent time at every position except pitcher, catcher, and first base.

As for this season, Garcia may open the year as the regular second baseman, though whoever gets the at-bats in the early going will likely eventually yield playing time to Nick Madrigal. Regardless, he provides the team with a valuable safety net. He’s comfortable in the clubhouse, unlikely to kick up a fuss over playing time, and he can play wherever they need him on the diamond. His career .256/.292/.357 doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence, but as a bit player, he should continue to compliment the White Sox roster nicely at a low investment.

The Brewers’ Infield Picture

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Those following the Brewers at a distance may not have paid much attention to their tempered approach to the offseason. It’s easy to look at their winter and see a modest collection of stopgaps to stanch the roster bleed of departing vets like Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Look a littler closer, however, and you’ll find President of Baseball Ops and GM David Stearns created a two-year window of flexible and affordable contracts to keep Craig Counsell’s squad in contention, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.

Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.

Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.

The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.

Quick Hits: Puig, Arbitration Process, Royals, Montgomery

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The status of top remaining free agent Yasiel Puig remains up in the air as Spring Training baseball kicks off today. The mercurial and ever-entertaining pugilist got everyday at-bats in 2019 after a couple years of more judicious playing time with the Dodgers – but the results don’t have teams lined up with contract offers. Puig hit .267/.327/.458 across 611 plate appearances with the Reds and Indians with 24 home runs and 84 RBIs. Puig’s singular personality makes his on-field contributions just a part of the overall package, but even after a year of modest production (101 wRC+), Puig ought to be able to find a job somewhere. Latest reports have the White Sox and Rockies as potential landing spots for Puig, per Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101. The Athletic’s Nick Groke downplays the Rockies interest (via Twitter), however. 

  • CAA agent Jeff Berry lost two arbitration cases this week. Arbitration panels chose the team award amount in cases for J.T. Realmuto and Josh Hader, two transformative performers trying to make their cases to earn beyond the scope of their positional historical comps, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Said Berry of the proceedings, “This was about two guys (Hader and Realmuto) willing to go to the mat to fight for what’s right, and hopefully other players take notice.”  It’s possible to look at the results and presume that Berry overestimated his cases for both superstars (within the confines of the current system). It’s surely a fine line between fighting for the best result in an uneven system and politicking for change. Either way, the arbitration panel could use some work. Rosenthal brought a particularly interesting point to the foreground, noting that either the players’ union or MLB “can unilaterally fire any arbitrator at any time.” That’s certainly an inflection point for turning a supposedly unbiased system into one rife for manipulation.
  • After trading for Cubs’ swingman Mike Montgomery in July, the Royals believe he can reach another gear when settled into a starting role, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. The Cubs thought the same thing when they acquired Montgomery in the middle of 2016. Though the Cubs never found consistent work for Montgomery in the rotation, he played an important role as a swingman for Chicago. And of course, never forget, he earned the save in game seven of the 2016 World Series. Not for nothing, but Montgomery has desired a rotation slot for some time now, and it could be that the consistency and trust the Royals plan on giving him in his role will have the desired effect – but only time will tell. In 13 starts after the trade last season, Montgomery went 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA/5.23 FIP while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings.

AL Notes: McKay, Gordon, Astros

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Rays left-hander Brendan McKay has been dealing with shoulder stiffness early in camp, Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times writes. McKay’s “fine,” though, according to manager Kevin Cash. He long tossed from 120 feet Friday, and the hope is that he’ll throw his first bullpen session of the spring in the next couple days. If healthy, the 24-year-old figures to rack up at least some starts for the Rays this season. McKay totaled 13 appearances and 11 starts last season, when he pitched to a 5.14 ERA/4.03 FIP in 49 innings. He – like his organization as a whole – is an unconventional player, as someone who’s also capable of hitting. Two-way McKay batted a respectable .239/.346/.493 with five home runs in 78 Triple-A plate appearances last season. He only garnered 11 trips to the plate during his first MLB campaign, though.

  • The pricey Dee Gordon has seemingly become superfluous to a Seattle team that doesn’t figure to contend this season, the last guaranteed year of his contract. The Mariners are planning to start Shed Long, not Gordon, at second baseman. However, although Gordon and Long are friends, the veteran’s not ready to give up his position, as Greg Johns of MLB.com relays. “I’m the best player in the locker room,” Gordon said. “I’m the best player when I walk on the field. Y’all ain’t seen it. I’ve been hurt. I’ll just get ready and you’ll see something fun.” Injuries did limit Gordon to 117 games last season, but it has been a couple years since the speedster has been productive. He turned in a 60-steal, 3.6-fWAR campaign in 2017 – his final season as a Marlin – but has combined for 52 stolen bases and 0.5 fWAR over 1,009 plate appearances as a Mariner. In an ideal world, they’d probably like to get his $14.5MM guarantee off the books, but they haven’t been able to do it on the heels of back-to-back replacement-level seasons for Gordon.
  • The Astros’ pitching depth has taken a couple blows. The team shut down right-hander Rogelio Armenteros on account of soreness in his elbow and shoulder, and it has also shut down fellow righty Riley Ferrell because of shoulder soreness, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets. The 25-year-old Armenteros threw 18 innings in the majors last season; he spent most of the year at the Triple-A level, where he pitched to a 4.80 ERA/5.08 FIP with 9.07 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9 over 84 1/3 innings. Arm injuries are nothing new for Ferrell, who dealt with biceps tendinitis last season and didn’t pitch much as a result. Miami took him from Houston in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, but the Marlins returned him to the Astros last June.

MLBTR Poll: Last Year’s Division Champs

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Of the six teams that finished in first place in their divisions in 2018, three (the Red Sox, Indians and Brewers) failed to defend their crowns last season. Two (the Red Sox and Indians) didn’t even make the playoffs, so ruling your division one year doesn’t mean you’ll end up in the postseason the next. Last season, the Yankees, Astros and Twins finished atop their divisions in the American League, while the Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals were the top seeds in the NL. Among those six, who’s the most vulnerable going into the new season? Let’s review the offseasons they’ve had…

AL:

  • Astros: If you’ve paid any attention to baseball in the past several weeks, you know this offseason has been a catastrophe for the Astros. They got rid of general manager Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch as a result of a sign-stealing scandal that has rocked baseball, replacing them with James Click and Dusty Baker. The Astros are still loaded with talent, but they lost the great Gerrit Cole even before their sign-stealing shenanigans came to light. Now, there’s plenty of skepticism they’ll put together a fourth straight 100-win season after such a horrendous winter – one in which they were very quiet in free agency. What’s more, they’re stuck in a division with a legit challenger in Oakland and two improving clubs in the Angels and Rangers.
  • Yankees: New York took Cole from Houston, which has been the Wile E. Coyote to the Yankees’ Road Runner in recent postseasons. The Yankees looked as if they’d have a tremendous rotation with Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as their top four, but health woes are already haunting the club yet again after an injury-riddled 2019. Severino, who barely pitched last season, is now facing a very worrisome situation with his forearm; meanwhile, Paxton will sit out until at least May or June as a result of back surgery. The Yankees are still laden with talent, and they remain capable of pulverizing the opposition with their offense, but some of the shine has come off since the Cole signing because of the Severino and Paxton situations. Fortunately for the Yankees, there may only be one team capable of standing up to them in the AL East – the Rays.
  • Twins: It was quite a winter for the Twins, who bolstered their rotation with the additions of Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. They also retained Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Perhaps more importantly, they signed third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92MM – the largest contract they’ve ever given out in free agency. So, a team that hit an all-time record 307 home runs in 2019 seems as if it’ll put a similarly scary offense on the field this year. The Twins could face more resistance in their division from the White Sox, who had an aggressive winter, though the Indians haven’t really bettered themselves. The Tigers have, but they’ll still struggle to win many games, while the Royals also figure to wind up among the game’s worst teams.

(Poll link for app users)

Who is the AL's most vulnerable reigning division winner?
Astros 63.20% (7,781 votes)
Twins 23.33% (2,873 votes)
Yankees 13.47% (1,658 votes)
Total Votes: 12,312

NL:

  • Dodgers: What do you get the team that won 106 games last season? How about Mookie Betts, who’s on the short list of the greatest players in the game? With Betts in tow, the Dodgers will enter 2020 as the overwhelming favorites to win their division for the eighth year in a row, but an improved Arizona club should at least offer a decent challenge. The Padres have also worked to get better since last season ended, but they don’t appear to be any match for the stacked Dodgers, while the Rockies and Giants look to be way behind.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s down Donaldson, but it was rather active in adding free agents. The team plucked the likes of Marcell Ozuna, Will Smith, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud and Chris Martin off the open market. Hamels is dealing with shoulder problems, however, and it’s unclear when he’ll be able to pitch in 2020.  Regardless, the Braves still have quite a bit of premier talent (Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka spring to mind), so it’s easy to envision them winning a third consecutive division title. At the same time, the reigning world champion Nationals, the Mets and Phillies are realistic contenders for the NL East championship.
  • Cardinals: Aside from the Reds, a 75-win outfit a year ago, it wasn’t really a busy offseason for any NL Central team. That includes the Cardinals, whose biggest addition was Korean left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim (and they lost their No. 1 free agent, the aforementioned Ozuna). They’re now set to open 2020 without one of their best starters in Miles Mikolas, who just received a platelet-rich plasma injection. The good news for St. Louis is that there’s no apparent juggernaut in its division, as the Cubs and Brewers have either stayed roughly the same or gotten worse since last year ended.

(Poll link for app users)

Who is the NL's most vulnerable reigning division winner?
Cardinals 73.68% (9,600 votes)
Braves 20.97% (2,732 votes)
Dodgers 5.36% (698 votes)
Total Votes: 13,030

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