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MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Red Sox?

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The Mookie Betts trade saga finally reached an end Monday when the Red Sox announced a deal sending him and left-hander David Price to the Dodgers. Both players were instrumental in helping the Red Sox to their most recent World Series title in 2018, and Betts is on a short list of the game’s greatest players. But the Red Sox nonetheless moved on from the two, saving $75MM in the trade ($48MM on Price, $27MM on Betts) and getting back a trio of promising young players in outfielder Alex Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong.

Needless to say, Boston’s hope is that Verdugo, Downs and Wong will emerge as long-term core pieces. In the here and now, though, only Verdugo figures to play a significant role. The 23-year-old had a solid rookie season in 2019 before injuries cut him down. Even if Verdugo stays healthy in 2020, he’s not going to make Red Sox fans forget about Betts. That’s not a knock on Verdugo – who has shown that he’s a quality major leaguer – but a compliment to Betts, a legitimate superstar.

Betts was among the driving forces for a position player group that finished fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in fWAR last year. To be sure, Betts didn’t do it all himself. There’s still incredible talent on hand in shortstop Xander Bogaerts, third baseman Rafael Devers and designated hitter J.D. Martinez. They should continue to make Boston’s offense a bear for enemy pitchers to deal with, while Verdugo, fellow outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. (if he’s not dealt), and catcher Christian Vazquez look like fine complementary pieces. That said, there’s no doubt Boston’s offense would have looked better had Betts remained a part of it.

Just as the Red Sox’s position player group took at least a short-term hit in this trade, so did its rotation. Price may not have been the all-world ace the Red Sox expected when they signed him to a then-record $217MM contract entering 2016, but he’s still an above-average starter. While injuries held Price to 107 1/3 innings last season, he did log a useful 4.28 ERA/3.62 FIP with 10.73 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9. Price was undoubtedly a top three starter on a team whose rotation didn’t get much from anyone else but Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale a season ago.

Rodriguez and Sale are still on the roster, but there aren’t any sure things backing them up in Boston’s staff. Nathan Eovaldi will try to rebound from a horrid season, and the team brought in the relatively inexpensive Martin Perez (a back-end starter) in free agency. It’s up in the air who will occupy the fifth spot in the Red Sox’s rotation behind that quartet. As for the club’s bullpen, which endured its share of scrutiny last year, there haven’t been any especially notable additions this winter.

The 2019 campaign didn’t go as planned for the Red Sox, who entered with title aspirations but ended up winning a disappointing 84 games. They’ve since let go of their manager, Alex Cora, as a result of a sign-stealing scandal, and now the face of their franchise and one of their most reliable starters are also gone. Cora hasn’t been replaced yet, but his successor will be stepping into a drastically different situation than the one he oversaw. The Betts- and Price-less Red Sox are still a talented team, though, and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Monday that it’s still “realistic” to believe they’ll compete in 2020. Considering how their roster looks now, do you agree?

(Poll link for app users)

How many Red Sox wins do you expect?
80-84 40.45% (6,252 votes)
85-89 34.60% (5,348 votes)
Fewer than 80 12.87% (1,990 votes)
90-94 10.33% (1,597 votes)
95 or more 1.75% (271 votes)
Total Votes: 15,458

Red Sox Announce Deal Sending Mookie Betts, David Price To Dodgers

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The Red Sox have officially announced a long-awaited swap to send superstar outfielder Mookie Betts and starter David Price to the Dodgers.

The Boston organization will pay down half of Price’s $96MM remaining contractual obligations. In return, the Sox will acquire outfielder Alex Verdugo, infield prospect Jeter Downs, and minor-league catcher Connor Wong.

New Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom announced the blockbuster, saying that “it’s reasonable to expect we’re going to be worse without” Betts and Price. (Alex Speier of the Boston Globe is among those covering the presser on Twitter.) That’s stating the obvious. At the same time, Bloom says he anticipates a competitive roster that can realistically compete.

So, why do the deal? Not long ago, Bloom says, he expected to keep Betts for 2020. But “teams stepped forward” with increased offers over the course of the offseason. The ultimate package achieved constitutes a “major step forward” for the Boston organization’s future, in Bloom’s view.

You may recall that an initial formulation of this deal included young righty Brusdar Graterol, with supposed health issues said to have scuttled that arrangement. Bloom didn’t talk about that directly, but did deny that fan reaction had any role in the implosion of the earlier trade structure. Graterol is now ticketed for the Dodgers in a separate but related swap.

The deal wasn’t just driven by the Red Sox’ desire to dip below the competitive balance tax line, Bloom said. In fact, as the Globe’s Peter Abraham characterizes his comments on Twitter, Bloom would’ve been open to dealing away the franchise cornerstone in the interest of long-term sustainability even had the club not needed to do so to reset their luxury obligations. That’s a notable and somewhat startling statement from the top baseball ops exec of one of the game’s blue-chip teams regarding his organization’s approach to competition and roster-building — particularly given that Bloom emphasized that he still sees this as a winning roster.

Padres To Sign Juan Lagares

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The Padres have agreed to a deal with outfielder Juan Lagares, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s a minor-league pact that’ll pay out at $1.4MM if Lagares can crack the big league roster. There are also $1.1MM in available incentives and a March 19th opt-out date, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Lagares could step into the shoes of just-traded center fielder Manuel Margot. First, Lagares will have to show that he’s primed to bounce back from a rough 2019 season.

At his best, Lagares gave the Mets high-end defensive work and approximately league-average hitting — quite a nice combination for an up-the-middle performer. But that was way back in 2014, when Lagares logged a Gold Glove and set the table for a spring 2015 extension.

Things just haven’t gone as well since. Lagares has dealt with some health problems and back-slid at the plate. UZR and DRS both soured on his glovework in 2019, though Statcast provided plenty of evidence that Lagares still has plenty of skill with the glove on his hand.

It seems the Friars will have a rather wide-open camp battle. Lagares and Wil Myers are each right-handed-hitting candidates to see time in center. Word is that lefty swinging Franchy Cordero could shift to the prime defensive spot; the recently acquired Trent Grisham is also an option there. Tommy Pham is sure to see a lot of action in the corner, with all of the above-listed players and a few others (in particular, Josh Naylor and Abraham Almonte) also potentially competing.

MLB Reportedly Planning Postseason Changes

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6:00pm: Union chief Tony Clark says he has no prior knowledge of these plans, Sherman tweets. Clark indicated he’d be open to considering changes as part of broader discussions. “Expanding the playoffs in a sensible way is something worth discussing when part of a much more comprehensive conversation about the current state of our game,” Clark says.

3:57pm: Major League Baseball is plotting a major shift in the sport’s structure, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The intention is to implement the changes as soon as the 2022 season.

This is not a done deal. Beyond any potential practical issues that could yet arise, it’ll need to be worked out with the union. As Sherman notes, though, there’s some reason to believe the changes could meet with the approval of the MLBPA.

First and foremost, the proposal under consideration would add two more postseason qualifying teams in each league, meaning that 14 of the game’s 30 clubs would be in the playoffs each year. The top overall team in each league would get a first-round bye, with the other teams playing 3-game series (all in one city) to advance.

That structure would assuredly change the roster-building calculus. In theory, tanking wouldn’t be as appealing, though it’d also increase the potential for cost-efficient postseason bids.

As much as anything, these rules would seem to enhance the meaning of late-season games. The first-round bye and full-series hosting provisions would help ensure that games late in the season still have meaning. And there’d usually be more competitive teams down the stretch.

Working out the full potential ramifications is always tough — there could certainly be some unintended (or subtle, counter-intuitive intended) consequences. There’s no indication whether the regular season would be modified to accommodate this new schedule, though that seems possible.

The proposal also includes one other eyebrow-raising provision. Per Sherman, the top three non-bye playoff teams would select their first-round opponents. This is a more or less standalone quirk, but one that does hint at some of the motivation here. Sherman notes that the league would plan to televise a live selection show. This package of potential changes is obviously designed both to increase the general competitive appeal of many games and to spice things up with some quirks.

Rays Finalizing Deal With Aaron Loup

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5:07pm: There is a deal in place, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

10:15am: The Rays are finishing up a minor league contract with veteran left-handed reliever Aaron Loup, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. If and when the deal is completed, the Beverly Hills Sports Council client would head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.

Loup, 32, spent the 2019 season in the Padres organization but has spent the vast majority of his eight-year big league career with the Blue Jays. An elbow strain limited him to just 3 1/3 innings with San Diego last season, but Loup holds a lifetime 3.45 ERA with averages of 8.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 0.69 HR/9 to go along with a 54.3 percent ground-ball rate.

Loup has fared considerably better against left-handed opponents in his career, but unlike many traditional lefty specialists, he hasn’t been completely obliterated by hitters holding the platoon advantage. Lefties have managed only a .234/.303/.321 slash against him through 584 plate appearances in the Majors, while righty hitters have put together a .269/.338/.424 slash. It’s certainly more production than one would hope to allow, but Loup isn’t a liability who can only be trusted in left-on-left spots, either.

Tampa Bay isn’t exactly hurting for left-handed depth at the moment, but Loup further deepens what’s already any areas of strength. Ryan Yarbrough is likely to open the 2020 season in the Rays’ rotation, while Jose Alvarado and Colin Poche could be in the Opening Day ’pen. Elsewhere on the 40-man roster are Jalen Beeks, Anthony Banda and top prospect Brendan McKay, although that trio could begin the year as starters in the Triple-A and serve as rotation depth. Loup will join a list of non-roster lefties that also includes former big leaguers Sean Gilmartin and Ryan Sherriff.

Diamondbacks Extend Nick Ahmed

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The Diamondbacks have announced a long-term deal with shortstop Nick Ahmed. Ahmed will earn a guaranteed $32.5MM over the four years covered by the deal, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.

Ahmed and the Snakes had been engaged in an arbitration standoff, with the player seeking $6.95MM and the team at $6.6MM. This new deal will therefore tack on three further seasons and over $25MM in new commitments. Ahmed had been due to reach free agency at the end of the 2020 season. He is a client of Meister Sports Management.

The structure includes a $1.5MM signing bonus, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Ahmed will earn $6MM for the coming season, take home $7.5MM apiece in 2021 and 2022, and receive $10MM in the final year of the deal. There’s also a $500K escalator for each Gold Glove award that Ahmed wins, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

At first glance, it’s a heck of an outlay for a player who’s entering his age-30 campaign without so much as a single league-average offensive season under his belt. Ahmed is a career .236/.289/.387 hitter through 2,209 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Then again, depending upon one’s perspective — and, as ever, the way things actually play out — this could be a bargain. It seems safe to say that the Diamondbacks do not put much stock in the UZR metric, by which Ahmed has been a good but hardly remarkable performer at short. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average, on the other hand, Ahmed is an exceptional performer with the glove. He has also earned the National League Gold Glove in each of the past two campaigns.

But that’s only touching the surface of the intrigue when it comes to Ahmed. Long a marginal performer with the bat, he trended up to a career-best 92 wRC+ last season. Ahmed cracked the .300 OBP barrier for the first time and drove 19 balls out of the park. It’s probably not reasonable to anticipate much beyond league-average offense (if that) going forward, but the arrow is obviously pointed in the right direction given that Ahmed has been able to improve both his plate discipline (career-best .46 BB/K ratio) and power (career-best .183 ISO) at the same time.

So, what’s the total package worth? Even after the offensive uptick last year, Ahmed was only a 2.4 WAR performer by measure of Fangraphs’ UZR-based valuation. But Baseball-Reference, which utilizes DRS, pegged him at 4.5 WAR. If indeed Ahmed truly wields an elite glove and provides anything approaching the league mean with the bat, he could handily out-perform the contract. If things really click at the plate, this could even turn into a truly high-value pact. Of course, there’s also equivalent downside if Ahmed’s offensive/defensive out-making trends reverse course.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Claim Jarlin Garcia, Designate Burch Smith

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The Giants have claimed southpaw Jarlin Garcia off waivers from the Marlins. In a corresponding move, righty Burch Smith was designated for assignment.

It’s not surprising at all to see these two teams line up on a transaction of this nature. The Giants have claimed pitcher after pitcher under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, quite often going on to attempt to slip them through waivers. And the Marlins have dropped a variety of interesting but not-yet-established relief pitchers this winter, with quite a few landing on other 40-man rosters.

Garcia was rather successful last year, compiling 50 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball. He lacks eye-popping strikeout numbers, but does get a solid number of groundballs and was quite successful at limiting hard contact. Garcia also found equal success against right and left-handed hitters in 2019, though fielding-independent pitching measures suggested he was much more effective when facing southpaw swingers.

As for Smith, he was added through the waiver wire last August. The 29-year-old had some effective outings last in the year with San Francisco but has obviously yet to show he’s a reliable MLB relief option. Over 135 2/3 career innings at the game’s highest level, Smith carries a 6.57 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9.

Angels Claim Jose Quijada, Designate Parker Markel

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The Angels announced that they have claimed lefty Jose Quijada off waivers from the Marlins. Righty Parker Markel was designated to create roster space.

The Halos will try to tap into the upside of Quijada, who got quite a few swings in his 2019 debut despite relying heavily upon his fastball. He also coughed up 26 walks, 19 earned runs, and 10 home runs in his first 29 2/3 MLB frames. Over seventy career Triple-A innings, Quijada carries a 3.73 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9.

Markel also debuted in 2019, though he’s already 29 years of age. He throws a 95+ mph heater and a slider with about equal frequency, but didn’t draw a stand-out number of swinging strikes (just over ten percent) in the majors last year. He was hammered in his 22 debut innings, surrendering 19 earned runs with a 24:17 K/BB ratio. But Markel was much better in the upper minors last year, throwing 41 1/3 innings of 1.74 ERA ball with a hefty 16.3 K/9 against 5.7 BB/9.

Taijuan Walker Auditioning For Cubs

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While he’s already said to be considering multiple offers from other organizations, righty Taijuan Walker is going to throw for at least one team in hopes of boosting interest. He’s in Cubs camp readying to audition, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reports on Twitter.

It might be tempting to wonder if there’s some kind of agreement in place, but Rogers says that’s not the case. It does seem fair to assume there’s serious interest, though.

Given that Walker already seems to have at least one solid opportunity with the Mariners, his former team, it’s notable that he’s willing to go put on an in-person showing at this point. If he lands with the Cubs, he’d presumably be given a shot to duel with Tyler Chatwood in camp for the fifth starter’s job.

The Cubs have pursued low-cost, reasonably high upside opportunities wherever possible this winter. Just what kind of money the team could promise Walker — in an up-front guarantee or through incentives — isn’t really clear. But it seems unlikely the Chicago organization will make a significant commitment at this point given the obvious, self-imposed constraints it has operated under this offseason.

Mets Ownership Still Plans To Sell Team To A New Buyer

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February 10: Mets COO Jeff Wilpon issued an additional statement on Monday:

As spring training begins, on behalf of ownership, we would like to share more information explaining why the proposed transaction has ended, however due to confidentiality and non-disclosure agreements we are unable to do so at this time. So right now, I believe we need to focus on the future and not in the past and that’s what we intend to do. We would like to assure our fans that we will continue our commitment to winning in 2020 and beyond and we’ll work hard to earn and maintain everyone’s confidence and trust. We’ll be moving forward to find a new transaction. We will not be giving details or updates on the timeline or process until we are prepared to make a public announcement. Thank you, that’s all I can say for now.

There’s little, if anything, within Wilpon’s statement that wasn’t already covered in the Sterling Partners statement, although it’s of some note to see a second quote (this one directly attributable to an individual member of the Wilpon family) clearly announcing ownership’s intent to find a new buyer.

February 6: Now that the proposed deal that would have seen Steve Cohen become the Mets’ new majority owner has fallen through, the club is still going to be put on the market.  In a statement released to media, the Sterling Partners ownership group said “The transaction between Sterling and Steve Cohen was a highly complicated one.  Despite the efforts of the parties over the past several months, it became apparent that the transaction as contemplated would have been too difficult to execute.  Sterling intends now to pursue a new transaction and has engaged Allen & Company to manage that process.”

This may be relieving news for Mets fans, many of whom abhor the team’s current ownership. The duo of Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon took the Mets’ reins in 2002, but success has been hard to come by since then for the club. New York has made just three playoff appearances under Wilpon leadership, and ownership has come under scrutiny time and again for the way it has handled the team.

Had Cohen ended up as the majority owner of the franchise, he’d have reportedly taken 80 percent of the Mets for approximately $2.6 billion. Cohen would have officially grabbed the reins going into 2025, so even if the Wilpons do find someone to take his place immediately, it may be awhile before that person assumes control of the organization.

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