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MLBTR Poll: Let’s Be The Braves’ Arbitration Panel

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The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.

Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.

Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.

In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.

O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.

Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)

How much should Dansby Swanson make in 2021?
$6.0MM 43.38% (3,630 votes)
$6.7MM 30.44% (2,547 votes)
Doesn't matter because he's going to sign an extension. 26.17% (2,190 votes)
Total Votes: 8,367
How much should Mike Soroka make in 2021?
$2.8MM 45.11% (3,633 votes)
$2.1MM 31.20% (2,513 votes)
Doesn't matter, becuase he's going to sign an extension. 23.69% (1,908 votes)
Total Votes: 8,054

Quick Hits: Martín Pérez, Coliseum

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There was some heavy lifting done in the baseball world yesterday: it was arbitration filing day, as well as the opening of the international signing period. Today is a recovery day. Here’s the latest…

  • Before agreeing to terms with the Red Sox, southpaw Martín Pérez had no shortage of suitors. The Astros, Padres, Royals, White Sox, and Rays all showed interest in Pérez, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). The Padres and White Sox have generally set their sights a touch higher than Pérez, but there’s clearly some trust around the league in Perez’s ability to contribute to a playoff-caliber pitching staff.
  • The Oakland A’s have long faced questions about their ability to stay in Oakland because of stadium concerns. The Coliseum sits on land with split ownership between the A’s and the city of Oakland. The organization continues to look for a site to build a new stadium, but the city of Oakland has also received a number of offers for their portion of the Coliseum land. One of those offers comes from former Oakland pitcher Dave Stewart, per Susan Slusser and Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Stewart, an Oakland native, submitted a $115MM bid with plans to revitalize the area, whether or not the A’s continue to play there. The city of Oakland is reviewing all offers.

West Notes: Rockies, Freeland, Angels, Suzuki, Ohtani

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Denver native Kyle Freeland was a revelation for the Rockies in his sophomore season, posting a 2.85 ERA/3.67 FIP over 202 1/3 innings. Two years later, however, and the Rockies have yet to discuss an extension with their homegrown star, writes the Athletic’s Nick Groke. Freeland’s 2018 was an almost as a magical affair, so starved is the Rockies franchise for a cornerstone rotation piece. The bubble burst in 2019, of course, as his run prevention numbers ballooned to a 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP. He found a middle ground over 70 2/3 innings in 2020, logging a 4.33 ERA/4.65 FIP with a 15.1 percent strikeout rate, 7.6 percent walk rate, and 51.5 percent groundball rate. Freeland agreed to a $5.025MM deal for 2021 on Friday, and he has two more seasons of arbitration before reaching free agency. Given the range of outcomes Freeland has already seen across four seasons, he’s likely to go year-to-year until reaching free agency after 2023. Let’s stay out west and check in with the Angels…

  • Kurt Suzuki had offers for more money, but he signed with the Angels for $1.5MM, per the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (via Twitter). Suzuki was with the Braves when Angels’ GM Perry Minasian was an executive there, which certainly could have helped smooth negotiations. But Suzuki’s ties to California don’t end there. Had Suzuki any reservations, he surely could have reached out to Anthony Rendon, who bonded with Suzuki’s son while the two were teammates in Washington, writes Robert Collias of The Maui News. Not to mention, Suzuki’s a native of Hawaii, he won a College World Series playing for Cal State Fullerton, and he began his career playing in the bay for the A’s. At 37-years-old, Suzuki’s not going to be a 130-start catcher, and injuries have hampered his ability to control the run game, but he’s been an above-average bat by measure of wRC+ in each of the last four seasons. Not to mention, having been the trusted receiver of Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez the past two seasons, Suzuki no doubt has plenty of sage advice to impart to the Angels’ less experiences backstops about how to manage a ballgame.
  • The Angels came to terms with five of their six arbitration-eligible players before yesterday’s filing deadline, but they’re heading to a hearing with star two-way player Shohei Ohtani. As if arbitration hearings aren’t complicated enough, Ohtani’s two-way abilities coupled with his injury history make him a particularly thorny case. Ohtani requested a $3.3MM salary, while the Angels countered at $2.5MM, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. New GM Perry Minasian says the Angels will be a “file-and-go” team, also known as “file-and-trial,” meaning they don’t plan to continue negotiations after the filing deadline. Of course, even teams with this philosophy occasionally reach an agreement between the filing date and hearing.

Latest On Red Sox’ Free Agent Targets

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The Red Sox hope Jeter Downs can be the guy to take over second base in the future, but the 22-year-old is likely to begin 2021 in Triple-A. He had just 12 games under his belt at the Double-A level before coronavirus canceled the 2020 season. In the meantime, Yairo Munoz and Christian Arroyo both could earn time at the keystone, but the Red Sox want that pair to earn their opportunities. Otherwise, Michael Chavis looks like the incumbent, despite being a natural corner infielder.

Hence, they’ve keyed in on second baseman in free agency, exploring deals with Enrique Hernandez, Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez, and Dee Strange-Gordon, though no deal appears imminent.  Marwin Gonzalez could be an appealing option because of his versatility, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter links). Gonzalez has a history with Red Sox manager Alex Cora from their days in Houston, though that’s not a time period either side likely wants to highlight. Outside of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, however, the rest of the Boston infield is still auditioning for full-time reps, so they may prefer to add a versatile glove that can function in a number of potential roster iterations.

Elsewise, Boston continues to look for arms to add to the rotation mix. Garrett Richards and Matt Moore are two names they’ve looked into recently, per Cotillo. Richards will make sense on a lot of teams now that he appears fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.03 ERA/4.28 FIP in 51 1/3 innings for the Padres in 2020, with 10 starts, a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, 8.0 percent walk rate, and 40.1 percent groundball rate.

Moore would be a more surprising candidate, having registered just 10 innings since 2019. The 31-year-old southpaw played in Japan last season, logging a 2.65 ERA across 85 innings.

Of course, Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom goes way back with Moore. Their careers mirrored each other in many ways as both worked their way through the Rays’ organization. Bloom was just into the beginning of his career in the Rays’ front office when Tampa drafted Moore in the 2007 draft. Bloom was then the Assistant Director of Minor League Operations as Moore made his way through the organization. In 2011, Moore made his big league debut while Bloom was promoted to Director of Baseball Operations.

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Free Agent Notes: Soria, Hand, Odorizzi, Rosenthal

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Some buzz from the free agent market…

  • The Blue Jays continue to be interested in Brad Hand and Jake Odorizzi, according to Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith in an update on Toronto’s offseason endeavors.  In the latest name to appear on the Jays’ wide-ranging radar, Joakim Soria has also drawn attention, though “talks haven’t been serious on that front.”
  • Speaking of Odorizzi, he is still among the “many” pitchers the Twins are still considering, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter links).  Back in December, Wolfson reported that other teams were more fervently pursuing Odorizzi than Minnesota, though with Odorizzi still unsigned, it seems like the Twins still have some kind of a shot at a reunion.  Beyond the Twins and Blue Jays, the Red Sox and Giants have also been linked to Odorizzi’s market, though the free agent righty lost a notable suitor in the Mets after New York instead opted to acquire Carlos Carrasco.  Minnesota was also known to be interested in Corey Kluber, and Wolfson reports that the Twins indeed made Kluber an offer before he ended up signing with the Yankees.
  • The Padres are still talking with Trevor Rosenthal’s camp, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (Twitter link), but the team might stand pat with its current relief corps.  Since the Padres’ bid for Kirby Yates appears to have fallen short, Acee doesn’t think the Friars will meet Rosenthal’s price.  Rosenthal enjoyed a nice bounce-back season in 2020, posting a 1.90 ERA and 41.8 K% over 23 2/3 innings with the Royals and Padres.  After being acquired by San Diego at the deadline, Rosenthal didn’t allow a single unearned run over 10 regular-season innings for the Padres, though he struggled considerably in the playoffs.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/16/21

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The latest minor moves from around the sport…

  • The Tigers announced that left-hander Robbie Ross, right-hander Andrew Moore, first baseman Aderlin Rodriguez and infielder Yariel Gonzalez have all been signed to minor league deals.  Ross is the most familiar name of the group, posting a 3.83 ERA over 321 2/3 innings as a workhorse member of the Rangers and Red Sox bullpens from 2012-16 (also starting 12 games with Texas in 2014).  After an injury-riddled 2017, however, Ross hasn’t returned to the majors, pitching in the White Sox farm system and then independent ball.  Moore is the only other member of the quartet with MLB experience, as he tossed 63 2/3 innings for the Mariners (posting a 5.51 ERA) over parts of the 2017 and 2019 seasons.

Latest On Kirby Yates

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1:36PM: It doesn’t seem like the Blue Jays are one of the finalists for Yates, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that the Jays “aren’t considered frontrunners” for the righty, though Toronto had “real interest.”

10:12AM: Former Padres closer Kirby Yates may be nearing a new contract, as the right-hander is “in final stages of considering offers from five teams,” according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).  Yates has whittled his market down to these five finalists from a reported 12 teams that showed interest in the former All-Star.  Most notably, the Padres aren’t one of the finalists, as Acee writes that the club would have to “substantially” increase their current offer to bring Yates back into the fold.

That stint in San Diego saw Yates develop from being something of a journeyman reliever in his age-30 season into a legitimate weapon.  Yates posted a 2.55 ERA and an exceptional 38.44 K% and 31.2 K-BB% over 183 2/3 innings with the Padres after being claimed off waivers from the Angels in April 2017.  Yates emerged as the Padres’ closer after the Friars dealt Brad Hand in 2018, and he proceeded to convert 53 of 57 save opportunities over the 2018-19 seasons.  Between a league-high 41 saves and a tiny 1.19 ERA over 60 2/3 innings in 2019, Yates received a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award balloting.

2020, however, was a much different story, as Yates pitched only 4 1/3 innings before undergoing a season-ending surgery in August to remove bone chips from his elbow.  The Padres and their fans must surely wonder what might have been if the 2019 version of Yates had been available to contribute to their postseason run, and while there was some interest in a reunion between the two sides, it seems as though Yates will be moving on.

A few weeks ago, Acee reported that Yates was looking for a deal in the range of over $5MM in guaranteed money, plus millions more in potential incentives.  (MLBTR projected a $5MM contract for Yates, ranking him 42nd in our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.)  Even considering the slow-moving nature of the relief pitching market, that would seem like a pretty reasonable price for Yates, given the possible upside he could bring to any bullpen.

There hasn’t been much public buzz about Yates on the free agent rumor mill — besides the Padres, the Dodgers are the only other team known to have interest in Yates’ services.  The Dodgers have addressed their bullpen by re-signing Blake Treinen and acquiring Corey Knebel, but there would certainly still be room for L.A. to also add Yates to the relief corps if they are one of Yates’ five finalists.

Orioles Re-Sign Thomas Eshelman

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The Orioles have re-signed right-hander Thomas Eshelman to a minor league contract, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (Twitter link).  Eshelman chose to become a free agent last month rather than accept an outright assignment to Baltimore’s Triple-A team.

In his second consecutive year of swingman work for the O’s, Eshelman posted a 3.89 ERA over 34 2/3 innings, starting four of his 10 outings.  He had only an 11.2 K%, continuing his near career-long trend of not missing many bats.  While Eshelman’s Statcast numbers aren’t anything to write home about, his return to the organization gives the Orioles another option as they figure out their pitching mix.  Eshelman’s ability to contribute a spot start is useful, particularly in a rotation that may feature several young hurlers who may still be building up their innings.

Of course, Eshelman is himself only 26 years old, and he was a second-round pick for the Astros in the 2015 draft.  He has a 4.22 ERA over 514 1/3 career innings in the minors (with the Orioles, Phillies, and Astros) to go along with his 5.22 ERA, 12.4 K%, and 6.5 BB% in 70 2/3 Major League innings with Baltimore.

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