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Quick Hits: Cishek, Souza, Herrera

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As spring training games continue and we inch closer to the 2021 season, let’s check in on a couple of notes from around the game…

  • Veterans Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. are working to make the Astros’ roster out of camp, but their chances took a hit yesterday with the signing of Jake Odorizzi, writes the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Cishek would make a $2.25MM salary were he to make the team, while Souza would earn $1.15MM. The Astros very much prefer to stay under the luxury tax to avoid the worsening of the draft pick compensation they might receive if Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, or Lance McCullers Jr. are offered (and decline) a qualifying offer at year’s end. While the terms of Odorizzi’s deal are not yet known, it’s likely to take them close to the $210 luxury tax threshold.
  • With Adam Haseley on the injured list and likely to miss opening day, Odubel Herrera has jumped into pole position to be the guy in center when the season starts, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He was an All-Star in the grass in 2017, but an 85-game suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy in 2019 derailed his once-promising career. Said manager Joe Girardi on Herrera’s chances to make the team, “We’re not allowed to punish anyone more than what MLB did. If Odubel doesn’t make the team, it would be what we would consider probably a lack of performance or we’d be more comfortable with getting a few more at-bats. That sort of thing. He’s in the running just like a lot of other guys.” The 29-year-old fell off dramatically after posting a 107 wRC+ from 2015 to 2017. He has not appeared in a big-league game since May 2019.

COVID Notes: 3/6/21

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The latest on how the coronavirus is affecting Major League Baseball:

  • Max Fried has been cleared to return to spring training, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Fried had to go through additional protocols after being in close contact to a potential COVID-19 exposure. Having received the necessary number of negative tests, Fried can return to camp and get set to make his spring debut. As of right now, the expectation is that Fried will be ready for the start of the season. Fellow southpaw Sean Newcomb now faces a similar situation, however. He will step away from camp until being officially cleared, as was the case with Fried.

Jarred Kelenic To Miss Time After Suffering Knee Strain

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7:40PM: For his part, Kelenic is not worried about being derailed by the injury. He plans to be back in seven days, per the Athletic’s Corey Brock. The Mariners will obviously monitor Kelenic closely, but GM Jerry Dipoto also did not sound overly concerned, saying he looks forward to seeing Kelenic back in the “near future.”

1:44PM: Kelenic suffered a Grade 2 strain, Divish reports, which usually carries a recovery period of three-to-six weeks.

1:21PM: Mariners prospect Jarred Kelenic will be out of action after an MRI revealed a strain in his left adductor muscle, the team announced.  Kelenic suffered the injury during Friday’s game against the White Sox.

No mention was made of a recovery timeline, apart from GM Jerry Dipoto saying “we are relieved that the long-term outlook is positive.  We all look forward to seeing him back on the field in the near future.”  Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times estimated that Kelenic is likely to miss “a few weeks” of time, which would rule out any chance of Kelenic making the Opening Day roster.  Kelenic has yet to play any Triple-A ball in his brief pro career, and it now seems as if he will indeed begin his 2021 season with Triple-A Tacoma.

Kelenic’s MLB debut date has been the subject of controversy in recent days, stemming from the infamous comments made by now-former Mariners president/CEO Kevin Mather during a video speech to the Bellevue Breakfast Rotary Club in February.  Mather openly discussed how the M’s had no intention of calling up any of its top young prospects from the alternate training site last season, and hinted that the team was planning to keep Kelenic and Logan Gilbert in Triple-A long enough this year for the Mariners to gain an extra year of team control over their services.  Kelenic and his agent later commented that he would have made his Seattle debut in 2020 had Kelenic accepted a long-term contract extension that would have given the M’s even more team control over Kelenic’s future.

A consensus pick as one of baseball’s top 10 prospects, the 21-year-old Kelenic was the Mets’ choice as the sixth overall pick of the 2018 draft, and the centerpiece of the Mariners’ return in the blockbuster deal that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz from Seattle to New York in December 2018.  The trade already looms as a pivotal moment in Mariners history, and it will become even more impactful should Kelenic and Justin Dunn live up to lofty expectations.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins Extend Byron Buxton?

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The Twins have high expectations for their offense in 2021. It’s a talented group with veterans Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson playing alongside young players on the rise like Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Arraez. In the middle both metaphorically and positionally, however, centerfielder Byron Buxton undergirds the Twins’ machine in both halves of the inning. He’s the player on the roster with the highest two-way ceiling, and at 27 years old, he’s in his prime. He’s also two years from free agency. Buxton’s agent has been in contact with the Twins about a potential extension, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter), but there’s a lot for the Twins to consider.

Defense has long been Buxton’s calling card. He is routinely one of the more impressive performers in the grass, and the numbers back it up. He has averaged 18.3 defensive runs saved and 9.8 UZR per 1,200 innings, which roughly amounts to one season. Both are excellent marks. Statcast is similarly complimentary of Buxton’s glovework, crediting him with five outs above average in 2020. That tied with four others for sixth among outfielders, despite only appearing in 39 games. In 2017, when Buxton was healthy enough to play more than 100 games, he racked up 30 OAA, not only topping the field in that season, but setting the bar. It remains the highest single-season mark from any outfielder in the Statcast era by a fair margin.

Buxton entered the league less polished on the other end, but he has nonetheless come into his own over the past two seasons. Early in his career, he was plagued by strikeout rates over 30 percent, only average power, and well-below-average walk rates. The latter still holds true, but the Twins want him swinging the bat because good things happen when he does. His exit velocity has surged from 88.3 mph in 2015-18 to 90.4 mph the past two seasons. His power has climbed into an elite range as well, rising from .157 ISO his first four seasons to .292 ISO in 430 plate appearances across 2019-20. A bat that was 23 percent below average through 2018 has been 13 percent above average since.

Put together, Buxton’s potential is that of a two-way centerpiece at one of the most important positions on the diamond. The Twins have to be tempted to find a way to keep the former number two overall pick in a Twins uniform long-term. Buxton would like to stay in Minnesota, but the Twins are focused on keeping him healthy in 2021, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes.

Though the idea of Buxton wearing a Twins uniform long-term is tantalizing, the injury concerns are real. The Twins have placed Buxton on the injured list no less than 13 times since he’s been in their organization, with the ailments ranging from concussions to wrist sprains to shoulder issues. The Georgia native hasn’t seen his skills affected, however. He remains one of the fastest players in the game, finishing in the 99th percentile for sprint speed in every season of his career. He turned in a strong batted ball profile in 2020 as well, landing in the 85th percentile for exit velocity, 89th percentile for hard hit percentage, and 88th percentile for barrel percentage.

Finding the right price point for such a high-risk, high-ceiling player will be a challenge for the Twins and Buxton’s representatives at Jet Sports Management. The muddled centerfield market certainly doesn’t help matters. Despite it being one of the weaker positions around the game, Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled to find the kind of deal he was looking for and ultimately settled on a two-year, $24MM offer with an opt-out. Meanwhile, George Springer had no trouble securing a deal, signing in Toronto for six years and $150MM. There were no free agent centerfielders to sign a multi-year deal last winter. The year before it was AJ Pollock joining the Dodgers for five years, $60MM and Andrew McCutchen signing a three-year, $50MM deal with the Phillies. Neither player primarily plays center anymore, however. Lorenzo Cain signed a five-year, $80MM deal with the Brewers the year before that.

Pollock is a natural comp as an oft-injured potential star in center, but he was entering his age-31 season as a free agent, two years younger than Buxton would be after 2022. Cain was also 31, so was Dexter Fowler when he signed with the Cardinals, so will be Springer and Bradley in the first seasons of their new deals. Suffice is to say that it’s hardly a simple task to project what Buxton might find in free agency – especially two years from now under the conditions of a new CBA. The Twins have maintained flexibility in long-term payroll, with their luxury tax payroll falling from ~$147MM this year to ~$66MM in commitments for 2022 and ~$57MM the year after.

But let’s put the financial parameters of a deal to the side for now, and consider the question simply. Should the Twins try to sign Buxton to a long-term deal?

(poll link for app users)

Injury Notes: Longoria, Urias, Whitley

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Evan Longoria made his spring training debut today at designated hitter, but it might be some time until he’s regularly taking grounders at third. He’s working his way back from plantar fasciitis, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). This is an injury that has plagued Longoria in the past, and it does have a tendency to linger. The Giants have no reason to rush Longoria, who hit .254/.297/.425 in 2020. The Giants built up their infield depth this winter. Tommy La Stella is the most likely to see time at third while Longoria is out with Donovan Solano staying at the keystone. If the injury lingers, San Francisco could also use the opportunity to get extra at-bats for Wilmer Flores.

  • Luis Urias will be out for a day or two with a hamstring injury, but it’s “very minor” and unlikely to affect his playing time beyond the next couple of days, per the Athletic’s Will Sammon (via Twitter). Urias is looking to take advantage of an opportunity to win the everyday shortstop job in Milwaukee. The Brewers are clearly comfortable playing Orlando Arcia and Travis Shaw on the left side of the infield, but they’d like to see Urias in one of those spots. Arcia has been moved around this spring for the first time in his career in an effort to give Urias more training at short.
  • Forrest Whitley is again having a tough spring. His arrival in camp was initially delayed because of coronavirus intake protocols, and now he’s dealing with a sore arm, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Whitley has struggled to get healthy and produce as expected for a top prospect, but there is still hope that he will establish himself at some point in 2021. He is on the Astros’ 40-man roster now, and while the stakes seem high for 2021, Whitley is still only 23 years old.

Pitching Notes: Payamps, Mata, Osuna

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The Red Sox and Blue Jays continue their divisional tug-of-war over right-hander Joel Payamps. The Blue Jays claimed Payamps from Boston today, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Payamps began the winter as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he made four appearances totaling seven innings over the past two seasons. The Red Sox claimed the 26-year-old at the end of November, but since early February he’s been passed back and forth between Boston and Toronto every two weeks. The Blue Jays claimed him on February 10th. The Red Sox claimed him back on February 22nd. Today the Blue Jays have claimed him again, designating Jacob Waguespack for assignment to make room, adds Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). This isn’t perhaps the stakes that we’ve come to expect out of AL East rivalries, but it’s about as good as it gets this time of year. Let’s see what other news is fit to print…

  • Red Sox prospect Bryan Mata has a slight tear in his UCL, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). Mata will avoid surgery for now, though there’s no timetable for his return. Mata is the 4th-ranked prospect in Boston’s system per Baseball America. He’s ranked third in their system by Fangraphs. Obviously, if rest and rehab don’t do the trick, a long road to recovery may await the 21-year-old right-hander. For now, however, Mata and the Red Sox remain optimistic. He made it as high as Double-A in 2019 with 11 starts, a 5.03 ERA/3.99 FIP and promising 52.1 percent groundball rate.
  • Roberto Osuna will hold a showcase for teams in the Dominican Republic on March 12th, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Osuna is still just 26-years-old, but he made only four appearances with the Astros in 2020. After initially being diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, Osuna sought a second opinion and chose to rehab the injury instead. Osuna, of course, was already a fairly high-risk signing – at least from an optics perspective – even before the injury because of a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy back in 2018. That said, when healthy, he’s been an incredibly productive bullpen arm, most recently leading the American League with 38 saves in 2019. He owns a 2.74 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 315 innings for his career.

Padres Claim Jordan Humphreys From Giants

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The Padres claimed Jordan Humphreys off waivers from the Giants and will add him to the 40-man roster, per the team. To make room on the 40-man, Jose Castillo was placed on the 60-day injured list. Castillo will soon undergo Tommy John surgery.

Humphreys was an 18th round draft choice of the Mets in the 2015 June draft. He missed all of the 2018 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, returning to make just a handful of appearances in the minors for the Mets in 2019. The Mets traded the right-hander to the Giants in August for Billy Hamilton. That would turn out to be Humphreys’ initiation into baseball’s nomad class. There are always a couple of players who get caught in the waiver wire carousel each winter, and Humphreys is one of this year’s contestants.

He was designated for assignment in November, at which point the Indians claimed him. When the Indians claimed Harold Ramirez, Humphreys was DFA’ed again. The Giants brought him back, claiming the 24-year-old from Cleveland. Presumably to make room for the José Álvarez signing, the Giants waived Humphreys again. Humphreys has now twice been a member of the Giants’ organization without ever suiting up for San Francisco in a game. Given the depth in San Diego, it will be a little surprising if Humphreys finds his ultimate home in San Diego, but at least for now, he will become the 40th man on the Padres’ 40-man roster.

Giants Sign Jose Alvarez

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MARCH 6: The Giants announced the signing of Álvarez to a one-year, $1.15MM contract with a $1.5MM club option for 2022, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). The option comes with a $100K buyout, adds John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). That bonus will count towards the luxury tax, though the option year will not. Therefore, Álvarez’s deal should count $1.16MM against the luxury tax payroll this season.

MARCH 2: Free-agent reliever Jose Alvarez is nearing a deal with the Giants, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It’s unclear whether it will be a major league contract.

The left-handed Alvarez, who will turn 32 in May, debuted with the Tigers in 2013 and has since pitched for the Angels and Phillies. Alvarez struggled to keep runs off the board as a Tiger, but he did well in Anaheim and Philadelphia. Overall, despite a subpar strikeout percentage (20.8), Alvarez has logged a respectable 3.59 ERA/3.85 SIERA in 340 2/3 major league innings. He has thrown 50-plus innings in a season on four occasions, though he only tossed 6 1/3 frames last year as a result of a groin injury.

If his agreement with San Francisco does go through, Alvarez could be part of a bullpen that has no shortage of southpaws. Jake McGee has been their relief corps’ biggest free-agent acquisition, but Jarlin Garcia, Sam Selman, Wandy Peralta and Caleb Baragar are also on the Giants’ 40-man roster.

Market For Maikel Franco “Heating Up”

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TODAY: The Orioles are one of the teams interested in Franco, Heyman tweets.

MARCH 5: There hasn’t been much buzz centering on third baseman Maikel Franco since the Royals non-tendered him at the beginning of December, but his market is now “heating up,” according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s unclear which teams are interested in Franco.

MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected in October that Franco would land anywhere from $4.5MM to $8MM in 2021, his final season of arbitration control, though the Royals were unwilling to go to those lengths to keep him. But the 28-year-old did have a productive 2020 in his lone season as a member of the Royals, with whom he batted .278/.321/.457 (106 wRC+) with eight home runs in 243 plate appearances. Franco also appeared in all 60 of Kansas City’s games, earned nice marks at third (zero DRS, 1.3 UZR) and struck out in only 15.6 percent of his trips to the plate – which aligns with his lifetime K rate of 15.3.

Franco now looks like one of the most appealing players remaining on an ever-shrinking free-agent market, and it’s easier to dream on him when considering his past promise. He ranked as high as 17th in Baseball America’s top 100 list of prospects as a Phillies farmhand back in 2014, the year he made his major league debut. Franco didn’t play much that season, but he opened eyes over 80 games in 2015, hitting .280/.343/.497 (129 wRC+) with 14 HRs across 335 PA. He wasn’t able to keep that up from 2016-19 as a Phillie, however, as he batted an uninspiring .247/.299/.427 (86 wRC+) in 2,146 PA. The Phillies gave up on Franco when they non-tendered him going into 2020.

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