The Twins have announced that president of baseball operations Derek Falvey will return for the 2023 season. Per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, team president Dave St. Peter said of Falvey: “We think we have a very dynamic, smart, forward-thinking leader, and he’ll be back in 2023, and I’m hoping many, many years after that.”
Falvey has guided the team to a 449-414 record — a 52% winning percentage since he started leading the Twins after the 2016 season. That run includes three postseason appearances and back-to-back division titles in 2019 and 2020. After those seasons, which saw the Twins win 101 games in 2019 and post a .600 winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, Minnesota has delivered consecutive disappointing seasons. In 2021, the team missed the playoffs with a 73-89 record, and through 155 games this season has posted a 76-79 record that has again eliminated from them from playoff contention. Despite these recent disappointments, the Twins will continue to turn to Falvey to lead baseball operations.
Although Minnesota has struggled, Falvey and his front office were aggressive this past calendar year in terms of making additions — even beyond Carlos Correa joining the team in perhaps the most surprising deal of this past offseason. In that timeframe, the Twins have added Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle to their rotation, Jorge Lopez to their bullpen, and Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez to their lineup (in addition to Correa).
Aggressive moves aren’t always effective ones, however, and Minnesota’s moves have played out to mixed results this season. Signing Correa appears to have been a slam dunk in hindsight, and a handful of moves on the trade market seem to be clear wins at this point: trading for Gray, essentially swapping Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in a pair of trades with the Rangers and the Yankees, and acquiring Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz from the Rays at last year’s deadline. On the other hand, the additions of Archer and Emilio Pagan have largely fallen flat, and other acquisitions, such as Mahle, Paddack, and Lopez, provided virtually no value this season, although they could certainly still work out in the long term.
While the Twins certainly have their flaws, Minnesota has also undeniably been held back by a rash of injuries in 2022. The Twins have had 32 players spend time on the injured list this season, including each of their aforementioned rotation additions. Their lineup has suffered from these injuries as well, with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Ryan Jeffers among those missing significant time. Overall, just four players have reached 130 games played for the Twins this season, and Ryan leads Minnesota pitchers with just 141 innings pitched.
Between the exceptional injury woes the organization has faced this year and the fact that Falvey is signed through 2024, it’s not a huge surprise that he, like manager Rocco Baldelli, be retained. Falvey will have more work to do this offseason, with Correa likely to opt out of his contract, and questions in a rotation that may lose both Archer and Dylan Bundy this offseason. The team holds a club option on Bundy and a mutual option with Archer, but neither option seems likely to be picked up. Gray’s option should be exercised, slotting him into next year’s rotation alongside Ryan, Mahle (health permitting) and a hopefully healthy Kenta Maeda (who missed 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery). Still, there’s plenty of work to be done on both sides of the ball if the Twins are to avoid a third straight playoff miss next year.
Note: The original version of this post erroneously called the Twins’ record under Falvey 371-414, a 47.2% win percentage. The correct record is 449-414, a 52% win percentage. MLBTR apologizes for the error.
ah hell naw
Gotta give him props for landing Correa. Dude is gone in the offseason, but he had the stones many execs did not. Houston and the Yankees will massively regret not signing him this postseason
No, they won’t. 1 position player isn’t that key to team success as far as paying 30mil (let alone 35). Houston knows to pay several players/pitchers very well, but not go overboard long-term. What Jose Ramirez means to Cleveland and his track record of durability is a good price point exception since he could carry the lineup in a poor ALC…..with helpful guys like Gimenez/Kwan emerging.
He signed for basically a one year deal. You can pay that in the short term and be fine. Especially the Astros who drafted him. Pena had a hot 1st month but not great since
amk1920;
He signed for a 3 year deal with opt-outs.
I like Correa a lot. But with his injury history – including this year – I don’t see another team beating $35m this offseason for 2023, or offering a long-term deal for over $150m. There’s only so much one player can do to influence a baseball team.
If Mr. Boras cannot find a desperate owner / FO guy (as the Twins had last offseason) to take on Mr. Correa, the Twins are going to be very limited in what they can do in preparation for 2023. Hope that the Astros ae open to taking him back on a 5 year contract….and the AAV will not be $35m a year.
Jbigz44;
Huh?
Correa is completely tradeable if he opts in.
Donaldson was dealt and Correa has 5x that value.
They won’t have to eat a dime. Probably get a couple lotto tickets back.
LOL
1. You don’t know that Correa doesn’t have a no-trade clause in there.
2. MLB works with back door communication. Any team interested enough in getting him in trade will leak that. Why would they trade players if he can opt out and sign directly with them?
3. If the Twins pull that off there are lots of agents and players that will be apprehensive about dealing with them in the future.
4. This is not some kids playing rotisserie league. This is serious business – manipulating and dealing in bad faith over a person being paid $35m in 2023. If you think Scott Boras will sit still for that then you don’t know Mr. Boras and his record.
I don’t think they had much competition with the ridiculous structure of that contract. The one year of solid performance was great but not really worth the risk of 3 years of massive overpay for something that might get injured and had a recent history of underwhelming seasons.
It would’ve been a three year deal at worst, hardly some franchise crippling contract. Many players of Correas caliber get 7+ year contracts at high AAVs, which is far more risky then what the Twins gave Correa.
Props would have been trading him for some talent at the trade deadline….
Houston and the Yankees were not given the offer to sign him for that price. By enticing the Twins to sign him, at that contract, Boras has essentially added one more team to Correa’s list of potential suitors for this next go round.
371-414 record since Falvey took over? Uhhh, what am I missing??? The facts say that the Twins are 449-415 since 2017.
Please don’t interject facts into the conversation
The data provided was incorrect. You’d prefer to be voluntarily ignorant as opposed to a knowledgeable baseball fan?
I think fburner88 was being sarcastic.
Falvey and Levine wanted to start a short rebuild in 2022. They knew that they didn’t have a truly competitive team – one that even if it somehow made the playoffs would go anywhere in them.
The owner stepped in and overruled them, and – like the Reds owner 3 or so years ago – said he wanted to “win now” and gave them a bigger budget. Whoopee! from MLBTR writers and many posters. Fell flat. Who really expected different?
The time to increase payroll is when a franchise has put together a core of a lot of good young players that have just gotten some ML experience, as the Orioles and Guardians have done this year. The Twins had no real core of up and coming players – most of their players were now veterans and didn’t stand out as being anything special. I don’t know if the Twins are now financially where the Reds were after a few years ago, causing them to get rid of all their higher priced players last offseason (and the team played better this years after doing so).
The Twins do not bring in many good players or work with their players very well. The recent pitching coach did, but he went back to college because the Twins wouldn’t give him a raise amounting to maybe 1-2% of what they gave Carlos Correa this year. I realize that’s a different part of the budget, but quality coaches make players better. The Twins pitching started going downhill after he left.
There’s a lot wrong with that organization that needs to be addressed before we discuss the players on the field.
It’s been a pattern for the Twins, rely on a mediocre SP staff and hope things go well. Even their good years you could tell they didn’t have enough for a deep playoff run; I was always happy when my team drew them in the first round. Spending prospects for Mahle was just more of the same mediocrity, I wonder if the ownership pressured him to do it.
This has to be the most error filled post on here in a long time. Basically just made up out of whole cloth.
Nobody has ever said the owner demanded to spend more, that is a Vikings rumor not a Twins thing. Pitching coach has made no statement why he left, outside of him wanting to go back to college. While the pitching was stats were cratering before he left.
They do have a very young core of talented players with a nice mix of vets in a weak division, this makes it obvious why anyone in that position would go for it.
This doesn’t mean the team is free from actual criticism but these statements made were are just foolish.
This has to be the most error filled post on here in a long time. Basically just made up out of whole cloth.
Nobody has ever said the owner demanded to spend more, that is a Vikings rumor not a Twins thing. Pitching coach has made no statement why he left, outside of him wanting to go back to college. While the pitching stats were cratering before he left.
They do have a very young core of talented players with a nice mix of vets in a weak division, this makes it obvious why anyone in that position would go for it.
This doesn’t means the team is free from actual criticism but these statements made were are just foolish.
The Vikings have petitioned the city for more control over the Twins and the mayor keeps kneeling down for them. He has no backbone.
bombo;
Foolish? Me?
Not made out of whole cloth at all.
Did you follow last off-season at all? Where did money come from to suddenly and unexpectedly sign Correa? And why was he signed if they weren’t trying to win now – they has SS’s including Lewis ready to start.
Stores were out that Johnson was waiting to see if the Twins would match the college offer before closing the deal. You think that happened in a day?
They have a bunch of good young players? Where? You think theirs compares to the Royals….who are fighting to stay out of last place?
There’s a bromide – “Follow The Money”. You might want to check that out as it applied to what the Twins did last offseason.
Lewis was an unknown commodity, hadn’t played due to injury and Covid year. They have a relatively cheap controlled core(Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, Theilbar, Kepler, Maeda) that’s won the division 2 out of the last 3 years. Gordon, Miranda, Duran, Jax all shined this year. If not for being the first or second most injured team this year they run away with the division imo
Money came via Donaldson to the yankees
no they haven’t.. the last 2 years they haven’t won anything..
bombo;
Did you know that for his prime clients Scott Boras doesn’t negotiate with FO people? He negotiates directly with the franchise owner(s).
Carlos Correa was a prime client of his last year. Most considered Correa to be the biggest name FA on the market last offseason.
50+ year Twins fan. This front office, IMHO, have zero feel for what goes on outside of their spreadsheets and videos. Zero feel for basics, conditioning and mental toughness.
me too 50+ year.. they have no clue what makes a team successful… it doesn’t start with numbers..
Sky;
You sound like one of the kids that show up in businesses after getting out of school determined to change the world – with no clue, skills or consideration as to how to service the client / customer.
Anyone that has followed MLB for any length of time that has seen the makeup of winning teams and how they play the game, has to look at the Twins under Falvey / Levine (notice that they didn’t say Levine would be back) and wonder exactly what sort of team they’re putting together and why they play the way they do on the field (this years young rookie-laden Orioles and Guardians teams play with more poise, smarts, and far better fundamentals than the young veteran Twins play).
Don’t get me wrong, I think the owner is meddling and is out of sync with the 2 of them. Nevertheless, the team on the field is what it is.
As for the Moneyball book – it was published almost 20 years ago. How many WS’s have Billy Beane’s A’s been in?
You sound like the guys in moneyball that were scouting players based on the attractiveness of their girlfriends.
My long time beef with Twins leadership has never been making win now moves. This FO has signed Donaldson, Cruz and Correa while making trades for real starters and bullpen pieces. The playoff wins haven’t happened.I’m still willing to see how this pitching pipeline turns out over the next couple years and hope for a healthy season from their regulars. While they’re still mediocre at least they’re fun to follow now
Twins need an ace, a good pitcher managing catcher, and 2 bullpen aces to be competitive next yr… thats within reach.. do it.
Last time this team had a good one 2 rotation was Santana/Liriano in 2002 – and that ended early too TJ
Competitive is just a way of selling tickets… there is only 1 goal they should have winning it all..
Was at that series vs. the A’s. The beginning of their historic playoff collapse record.
WHAT A LOAD OF HORSE CRAP: the Twins are no better off then when they were hired… and in in terms of amount of players on the DL… The Twins are better off than Tampa… and the last article in terms of lost WAR , I saw, Twins weren’t even in the top 5…. HORSE CRAP… Po’lads love them because the sell tickets with promises… they have had 6 years… and haven’t won a single post season game…. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
Something needs to change in Minnesota and I’m not quite sure exactly what that is. The signings have been hit and miss, same with trades and a lot of bad luck. I think it’s re investing payroll within that roster that’s hurt them most. Buxton needs to dh at this point. Correas clearly walking and the pitching is lack luster at best. In a weak division the twins on paper should be 10+ games up instead of playing below .500 ball. If this year wasn’t a put up or shut up one I really don’t know what is for these guys. If it’s okay to play under.500 and drop 30+ mil on contracts that’s the name of the game I guess, but major head scratcher on what’s going on here. They need a fire lite under them. Not entrenched job security.
“Forward thinking” lol.
These guys are morons. They look at *very basic* splits and haphazardly apply team policy across the board on it. The big one is the “pitchers get worse the third time through the order” thing. While on average, that’s true, there so, so much more to it, and it doesn’t work the way they think it does.
For one, those numbers are somewhat skewed. The example I read: Let’s say every time through the lineup you give up a single to the leadoff hitter and a home run to the second batter, then mow down the rest of the lineup in order.
1st time through order your split will be: 222/.222/.556 for a .778 OPS
2nd time through order it’ll be the same: .222/.222/.556 for a .778 OPS
3rd time through, you give up another home run, now you’re in the bottom of the 5th and you’ve given up 6 runs… chances are in todays game every team is pulling you at that point. Your slash line for 3rd time through the order is going to read:
1.000/1.000/2.500
That’s an intentionally extreme example, but it illustrates why you can’t just apply “no third time” across the board unilaterally. Over the course of seasons, there are going to be hundreds of examples of guys that are pulled before reaching the bottom part of the order the third time, so a lot of the slash lines will be higher because of facing only the best hitters the third time through.
If you go on to look at individual players, it’s not always the case. For example, if you look at Cleveland’s Naylor, his OPS is hundreds of points higher against relievers than it is against a 3rd time facing the pitcher. And the cleveland batting order is split almost 50/50 on whether it’s better to leave the starter in or bring in a reliever. So it should be done on a case by case basis.
To back that up: generally across the board, pitchers numbers show *better* numbers the 4th time facing the order. That’s not that batters are suddenly tired or forgot what they saw, it’s that generally speaking, only pitchers pitching well make it to the 4th time through the order. The reason that matters is… it proves that there’s not some magic implosion that happens to pitchers the third time through the order, like “forward thinking” Falvey believes. If a pitcher is dealing… he can still succeed. Too often the twins guys aren’t giving the chance.
Twins have only let starters go 7 innings 10 games this season. They’re 9-1 in those games, (and 4 of them were during this stretch where everything has gone wrong for them). Since the start of the season they have never once had a player qualify for ERA, because they are an extreme outlier in not letting their pitches go deep into games. And their players don’t like it. Sonny gray was asked “you said during spring training the twins felt like a great fit, do you still feel that way?” His answer was a very pregnant pause followed by “…I want to pitch deeper into games”
Which leads me to the next point – you can’t pull all your starters after twice through the lineup and then fill your entire bullpen with dumpster diving moves. They filled their entire bullpen for the season with rookies and Guys they signed to minor league contracts, and a terrible trade… then threw them all against the wall to see which one sticks. They tried to address that at the trade deadline but acquired an aging veteran, a flash in the pan with bad career numbers, and a guy that everyone knew was injured except them.
Which speaking of that trade, the Chris paddack and Emilio pagan trade was an absolute disaster. Falvey claimed they had their eyes on those guys for years. But reality is it was basically the exact same trade that the Mets looked at the Medicals and said “hell no”, so then the padres started looking for people to buy their fools gold… and since mr forward thinker hadn’t addressed his pitching staff yet, he jumped all over it, once again acquiring a pitcher everyone else knew was injured except the twins.
And then pagan has been an atrocious pitcher for 2 seasons now with some of the worst splits in baseball, and single handedly caused an 8 game swing in the standings by blowing 4 games in a week to Cleveland. But the twins have kept him around, and sometimes even in key spots… because “he misses bats”. Nevermind that per baseball savant, he is the worst pitcher in the league in several major categories… he has a high k/9 rate so he must be great and just unlucky or something.
I could go on and on, but I doubt anyone is reading this anymore anyway. I’ve turned in my twins fan card because of the way the team is run. They’re genuinely not fun to watch because they make the same boneheaded moves over and over and over again and never try anything different.
TL;DR: theres nothing brilliant or forward thinking about this guy. He tries to outsmart the game by pretending it’s a computer program and doesn’t understand that no matter how analytically driven you WANT to be, you still have to balance the human element (including keeping players happy), and you have to actually analyze the numbers. Not just look at the surface level splits and unilaterally apply policy based on them.
Odd that it’s only Falvey they’ve announced. Is Levine out?
I agree. Weird to not include the GM Levine anywhere in the discussion.
As long as they move on from Rocco I can live with another year of Falvey.
Unfortunately he’s already said Rocco is the manager as long as he wants it. I think they’re gonna go hand in hand, Rocco won’t be gone til Falvey is (unless maybe Falvey is told by ownership “it’s him or you”)
What’s with miranda leading off?
Gordon in the 3 spot?
Gio clean up?
Sanchez 5 hole?
Wow… thats messed up…