December 9: The Padres have officially announced the deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the full contract breakdown. Bogaerts will make a $5MM signing bonus followed by 11 straight seasons with a $25MM salary.
December 8: The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Bogaerts had spent his whole career in Boston, originally joining the organization as an amateur signee from Aruba back in 2009. He quickly developed into one of the sport’s top prospects and was in the majors by August 2013, a few months before his 21st birthday. Bogaerts claimed two Silver Slugger awards within his first four MLB seasons, but his .283/.339/.409 career slash line through 2017 was roughly league average. He took a major step forward in 2018, reaching another level in his age-25 campaign.
He hit .288/.360/.522 with 23 home runs over 136 games that season, helping lead Boston to 108 wins and a World Series title. Bogaerts sustained that new level of excellence, as he’s been a well above-average offensive performer in each of the four years since then. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, the righty-hitting infielder owns a .300/.373/.507 line that checks in 34 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.
On the heels of that breakout season, the Red Sox inked Bogaerts to a long-term deal. Boston guaranteed him $120MM between 2020-25, allowing him to opt out with half that money remaining after 2022. Bogaerts played well enough to earn MVP votes in each of the four seasons since signing that extension, making it a no-brainer he’d take his opt-out opportunity unless he and the Red Sox could preemptively agree upon a new deal.
Extension talks this spring didn’t come close, as Boston reportedly offered to tack on one additional season at $30MM. Turning that down was an easy call for Bogaerts’ camp, and he solidified his opt-out decision with another excellent year. Through 631 plate appearances, he hit .307/.377/.456. Bogaerts’ 15 home runs marked his lowest full-season total since 2017, but he finished tenth in the majors (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage.
A career-best .362 batting average on balls in play propped up those rate stats, and it’s unlikely he’ll manage to sustain quite so lofty a mark in future seasons. He owns a career .336 BABIP, though, so there’s plenty of room to remain a strong hitter even if his batting average comes down slightly. He’s walked at an average or better clip in each of the past five years, and he’s kept his strikeout rate remarkably consistent around 18% six seasons running.
Bogaerts makes contact, draws walks and typically threatens or tops 20 homers per season. He’s one of the more well-rounded offensive players in the game, and he’ll step right into an already loaded San Diego lineup. Bogaerts joins Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of a lineup that should be incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate. That quintet has 11 combined Silver Slugger awards, and they’ll bring an incredible collection of weapons from both sides of the dish.
Where to pencil everyone in on the diamond is a decision the front office and manager Bob Melvin will work out over the coming months. San Diego’s middle infield was already strong. Tatis, two years removed from inking a $341MM extension to serve as the franchise shortstop, will return from his performance-enhancing drug suspension within the first month of next season. Ha-Seong Kim is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who had a solid .251/.325/.383 line in his second big league campaign. Jake Cronenworth is an above-average defender at second base and owns a .257/.339/.443 mark through his first three seasons.
At least for the moment, Bogaerts seems likely to step in at shortstop. Scott Boras categorically rejected the possibility of Bogaerts moving off the position earlier this offseason. Perhaps the strength of the Padres’ offer changed that thinking, but it’s also possible the Friars rearrange their infield to accommodate his wishes. San Diego had already been considering the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield after his lost season in deference to Kim. Pushing Tatis into left or center field now seems especially likely. Bogaerts could step in at shortstop, with Kim moving to second base and Cronenworth taking over an uncertain first base position.
Bogaerts’ glove has been the subject of immense attention throughout the free agent process. The 6’2″, 218-pounder has a larger build than many shortstops, and he’s drawn some criticism for lacking prototypical range. Public defensive metrics roundly panned his glove throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him below par every year from 2014-21. Concerns about his long-term defensive outlook seemingly played into Boston’s low extension offer this past spring, but Bogaerts posted the strongest defensive metrics of his career in 2022.
In 1249 2/3 innings this past season, he rated as five runs above average by DRS and four runs better than par, according to Statcast. Concerns about his lateral quickness into his mid-30’s figure to persist, but his strong 2022 campaign at least reduced any urgency to move him off shortstop immediately.
The Padres clearly aren’t much concerned about Bogaerts’ long-term defensive fit. Owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have been hellbent on adding another star regardless of position. They reportedly made offers well north of $300MM for both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, but both players declined and signed elsewhere. Those failed pursuits of Turner and Judge made the Padres a fascinating wild card this offseason, and while reports initially suggested they were unlikely to dip back into the shortstop market, they pivoted and made a run at Bogaerts.
An 11-year term will take him through his age-40 campaign. That matches the term Turner received from Philadelphia, but Bogaerts was generally expected to command a lesser deal in light of his long-term defensive concerns. Turner’s $300MM guarantee does beat the one received by Bogaerts, but the $20MM gap was closer than most had envisioned.
The deal shatters MLBTR’s pre-offseason prediction of $189MM over seven seasons. It’s the second-largest free agent deal in franchise history — trailing only Machado’s ten-year, $300MM pact. The $280MM guarantee is the seventh-largest for a free agent in MLB history, with Judge and Turner topping it thus far among this offseason’s free agents.
The cost for the Padres goes well beyond the terms of the offer itself. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but the contract comes with a $25.45MM average annual value. That’s the relevant consideration for luxury tax purposes, and it sends the Padres well into tax territory. Roster Resource projects the Friars for a tax number around $254MM at present. That’s $21MM north of the $233MM base threshold, and $1MM above the second tier of penalization.
San Diego has paid the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons, and it looks all but certain they’ll do so again. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, coming out to $10MM in fees. They’ll be charged 62% on any overages between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face heightened penalties thereafter. As things currently stand, the Bogaerts deal sets them up for a tax bill around $10.6MM. Further additions or subtractions will alter that number, but it’s virtually certain they’ll be into competitive balance tax territory yet again.
It’s worth noting that at $27.27MM and $25.45MM respectively, both Turner and Bogaerts accepted lower average annual values than expected while also reaching an 11-year term that had only happened once before in free agency when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years. With infielders Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rendon receiving AAVs ranging from $32.5-35MM dating back to 2019, it may be surprising that Turner and Bogaerts fell well below that range. It’s all about that CBT – the Phillies and Padres reduce their luxury tax hits and tax bills for taking on the players’ late-30s seasons, which project to have little value.
Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, meaning the Padres will also have to surrender draft choices to add him. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, they’re subject to the highest penalties. San Diego will be stripped of its second and fifth-highest selections in next year’s amateur draft, and they’ll forfeit $1MM in international signing bonus space.
While the Padres load up for another run at the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Red Sox will have to move on from a homegrown star who’s played a key role with the franchise for nearly a decade. It’s an abrupt about-face for the organization. While it had long looked as if Bogaerts would depart given the lack of progress on an extension in Spring Training, reports Wednesday morning suggested their talks with his camp were gaining momentum.
It seemed as if he might remain in Boston for the entirety of his prime, but the Padres’ offer wound up handily surpassing Boston’s. Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe report the Red Sox had offered a six-year term worth around $160MM. That was more in line with general pre-offseason expectations and contained a slightly higher annual salary than the deal Boagerts received, but San Diego’s willingness to tack on an extra half-decade in guaranteed money made the gap enormous. Somehow, the $137.375MM the Red Sox spent on Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen earlier Wednesday almost seems quaint in comparison to the Bogaerts contract.
The Red Sox will receive compensation for Bogaerts’ departure, but it’s at the lowest tier since Boston also paid the competitive balance tax in 2022. They’ll receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. That’s of small consolation, and the far greater concern is how the club will move forward. Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee last offseason, giving themselves some cover at shortstop. Should they prefer to keep Story at second base, they could check in with the two remaining top free agent shortstops, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. Regardless, Boston is certainly not done after chief baseball office Chaim Bloom said Monday he hopes to add “seven, eight, nine” players to the team this offseason. Starting pitcher and the catcher position are two items remaining on the shopping list even if shortstop is handled in-house.
Correa and Swanson are sitting pretty with Turner and Bogaerts having exceeded expectations in terms of total dollars. While the Boras Corporation representing both Bogaerts and Correa could be viewed as a conflict of interest, the agency managed to get Bogaerts signed with a team that hadn’t been expected to sign a shortstop at the outset of the offseason.
It’s a deal of massive proportions, one that could drastically shake up both leagues. After a couple attempts came up empty, the Padres landed their desired superstar. The Red Sox’s optimism of a few hours ago was dashed by a determined organization that now spends like a big-market behemoth. Bogaerts lands one of the largest contracts in MLB history, setting the stage for a fascinating bidding war for the two star shortstops who remain unsigned.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report Bogaerts and the Padres had agreed to an 11-year, $280MM contract. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the deal did not come with any opt-out provisions and included a full no-trade clause.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Wow.
And Red Sox and their fans were having such a good day…until now.
I wonder how BoSox fans feel about Chaim Bloom.
Significantly better than the Giants fans feel about farhan !
As a triple A gm we love him.
I would not want Bogaerts on my team until age 40.!.!
Marcelo Mayer is coming, an 11 year commitment to a 30 year old SS is ridiculous by any means. If the Sox are going to give out that kind of length of a contract it should be to Rafael Devers.
We got Yoshida and Jansen today and while the hope to keep Bogaerts was high i think deep down we all knew we were being set up for disappointment. Bloom is still on the hot seat to many but this may well be a bullet dodged
Totally fine with Chaim not give it him an 11 year deal.
Dough Boy Devers for 11 years? Okayyy
42 on the official last day in October of 2034. Oh dear lord. How many bad years did they just buy. It’s going to make the Cano deal look sane
I am with you here
This Sox fan is fine with this. No way I wanted to give him an 11 year deal. Now we can let him walk with peace of mind knowing it took an insanely stupid contract to take him away.
@Chipsss, why do you say that. My only issue with Farhan is thinking that he could field the same team in ‘22 as we had on our roster in 2021 when we won 107.!!Farhan and Co are far from finished this offseason.
Sane but from Jed Hoyer. I was hoping for 8years for the cubs
That’s about a $25M AAV. In 10 years, after inflation, that will be small change. The Padres will be able to afford to write off 2 or 3 years of his contract, if he can’t perform. Of course, if he stubs his big toe and can’t play at ALL in a year or two, that’s a sunk cost, a loss, which is also part of the game.
It’s not like the Padres haven’t done that before, either. Remember Eric Hosmer? The Pads are paying 100% of his salary for the next 3 years in Boston.
Now, none of this stuff makes sense to me, a normal human being, who lives on a budget, where a $40 dinner is a luxury. However, this (MLB) is not that (real life). I’d rather they paid for Freddie Freeman last year, but I believe he rejected the Padres offer (if I recall correction), just like Turner did this year. Ya win some, ya lose some, but if you don’t play the game, you lose ’em all.
Devers is gone next year. He would be dumb not to go on the open market now. Players rarely stay on their original teams when bidding like this ensues.
Cubs probably get Swanson for 6 years at a much cheaper price
No need to wonder. The hatred only grows. I posted earlier that he’d use the questionable OF signing to claim poverty and pass on Bogey.
This explains a lot. The meeting they had he gave up on Xman and immediately pivoted trying to distract the fan base.
FU<K BLOOM!
Rsox – long term to Devers is a bad idea. His defense already stinks, and, you don’t pay a dh, ANY dh, 35m+/yr over a decade or more.
Devers will want a 14 year deal, and, probably a good bit above 400m.
padres get no love. Preller buys everyone’s and loses. It’s insane.
This is stupid. I’m beginning to think baseball owners know something about the future of the planet that the rest of us do not.
They should feel relieved that they’re aren’t paying $25mi/yr for an overrated SS to the age of 41.
I’m feeling much much better now about the Mets paying Lindor through age 37.
Yoshida didn’t come cheap and i don’t think it was the money as much as the decade+ commitment. The Padres literally watched the top two players in free agency leave money (and lots of it) on the table not to sign with them and seems Preller made a desperation signing (11 years with full no trade protection and no opt-outs to a 30 year old SS) to not get shut out at home during the winter meetings
@Rsox Giving Bogey opt-outs would have made the contract worse for the Padres, not better.
Remember Wade Boggs wasn’t very good defensively early in his career either. Devers has shown improvement and at 26 hasn’t even hit his prime yet
don’t worry there is ZERO chance of Devers signing an extension with Boston
We all know the last 4 years or so are gonna be a huge drag on this organization which will coincide with that of Machado, Tatis, and what they’ll have to overpay for Soto. Good luck with that. There’s a wasteland on the other side of these insane contracts.
I couldn’t disagree more, but I am glad you are optimistic and will not try and ruin that for you. I hope you are right and I am not.
Correction….age 41…..
No offense, but y’all didn’t get jack lol!
The only thing you got was freed from possibly the ugliest contract ever in baseball.
@Rsox – Yoshida is costing about 3m/yr less than Bogey took from SD. BUT:
* Bogey plays better defense
* Bogey plays a premium position
* Bogey has proven able to put up numbers at the mlb level equal to what Yoshi does in Japan, and, there’s an inevitable drop in the transition here. Simply put: Bogey will be a better hitter adjusted for ballpark neutrality.
Yoshida has no arm, no speed, and can’t play defense. He better have the bat to ball skills of Ichiro for the size of that contract.
Be real. $40 get you, the wife and the two kids McDonalds.
two things: number 1 in terms of paying Yoshida on yearly basis the difference is 7 as the posting fee is a one time payment to the team not factored in the AAV of the contract and 2 last time I checked 280 million was bigger than 90 million 0r 105 if want to add the posting fee.
My wife and I make $40 bucks to a long ways. We get a lot for our money, which I’d demonstrate for you if I could show you the pretty lake outside the front door. of my custom built home. (Actually, my wife manages the money, and that helps.) 🙂
Great post, sailor.
@acell – I didn’t say 3m a year in aav, I said 3m a year in cost for the player. No matter when you pay it, the posting fee IS a cost of obtaining the player.
As for the years, great, you can count.
Nice try in twisting things, maybe you work for bloom with some deceiving double-talk. Could be a pr guy for him to try and mislead the lemmings.
Franchise icons are worth taking a loss on for 3 years at the end, potentially. With all the money bloom throws away on damaged goods, reclamation projects, and buying low level lottery ticket prospects paying a franchise icon and fan favorite a few extra years is hood business he should be OK with spending the money on, but. He just doesn’t get it.
May have dodged a couple bullets. They’re around 40 million or so from the cap. with more holes to fill. Even this AAV and and say Eovaldi would have put them over the CBT again. With still some holes to fill.
Which may or may not matter to them. Don;t know.
As for Devers they need to make a decision and make it now. If they’re all in with him then get the deal done. Probably going to take at least 12 years and well north of 300 million. If he’s not happy with that or they’don’t want to pay him then they need to suck it up and trade him or we’ll do this all again next off season.
GASoxFan – AMEN!! Some GMs compete and others just try to save face for being horrendous.
Rsox – Devers had a .964 fielding percentage with 14 errors in 2022. . League average was .967. So after 6 seasons of playing 3rd base he’s had ONE year where he was close to league average but his career fielding percentage is still .941 and that’s 20 points below league average. He will soon be entering his 30s. His weight will continue to blossom and he’s avoided major injuries so far in his career.
He is a terrible investment since he can’t field, has a body type that doesn’t age well and his hitting is streaky. His production is due to JD, Bogaerts and others who were around him. If the new all average no power left fielder can get on base 35% of the time hopefully Devers will hit his HRs during those innings so Boston will score 2 runs. Otherwise, this team without JD, Bogaerts and others will be needing top 5 Starting Pitching to win.
Glad to see Bogaerts got a good deal for him. He’s on a team that will compete for years and that is huge considering where he was until yesterday. Boston won’t make the world series this decade thanks to Bloom.
You may be surprised on what Swanson gets. Only two elite shortstops available. I think his contract will be over 20 million a year.
A significant number of them are calling for his head right now. Go listen to Boston sports talk radio.
Pads fans – a significant number of fans have been calling for blooms head since the 2019-2020 off season. Each year it only grows
before you sarcastically criticize people for their counting abilities you may want to work on your math skills because the difference is actually about 4 million not 3. and if you want to talk about spin claiming a 3 million a year hit only for three years when the contract Xander signed is more than double that of Yoshida is the height of disingenuousness.
Yes franchise icons are worth taking the hit on for three years. this will be way more than three years but you knew that already with your expert counting…
That takes Padres out of Correa signing. Same with Yankees. Maybe the Giants will sign him. Over 30 million a year for 9 or 10 years. Will need to be more than Turner.
GASoxFan – He does work for Bloom. That’s why his opinions are not based on facts and always reflect well on the worst GM in baseball.
Bogaerts did the smart thing and I bet it killed him because he expected to be a Red Sox player his whole career. Lets see how Devers does without his close friend Bogaerts.
Also, lets watch Bogaerts modern metrics climb playing next to Manny rather than Devers. His high fielding percentage will now be coupled with a far greater range than he was allowed with Devers cutting off balls he had no business going after. Manny is a professional fielder unlike Devers. He is savvy and will let Bogaerts get to balls and throw players out that he never got a chance to play with Devers making selfish decisions about which balls to go after.
As a fan of the Red Sox players I am pleased that Mookie has settled in with a team that has no issues with diversity, I am happy Bogaerts landed with a team that has a great defensive 3B and I am hoping Benny, JD, Nate and Vazquez all end up in positive situations. Nobody deserves to be in an organization run by Bloom. Players want to win. Bloom never learned that in Tampa.
I wasn’t far off in money or years, just structure.
I said a 7/196m base with three consecutive dual options, team/player – 24m/14m in ’30, 20m/10m in ’31, and 16m/6m in ’32.
Then incentives, 250k each for PAs and HRs, 500k each for MVP voting, GG, silver slugger.
Maxed out (doesn’t happen) it’s 276m/10yrs. But I bet with his prior city affinity, you put that on the table and a framework could’ve come together. Not another lowball of 6/160 which sounds like chaims best and highest.
Maybe fire bloom and hire me, at least I know ow how to get a deal together and not lose fan favorites and franchise icons.
Bloom has now lost 2. Now many more can he piss off and drive away?
With Chaim must be thinking. “with large market teams tying up payroll with unproductive players 35+ smaller market teams will be able to sign younger and productive players for more sensible terms.”
With all the execs pulled out of TB people also give bloom too much credit for having worked there. He was lower on the depth chart with other smarter guys above him pretty much his whole time there, he wasn’t responsible for thing the way, say, a Friedman was.
Got an interview based on riding coattails and pushed by the tailwind of the guys who left before him. Managed to mislead Henry into thinking he could mold bloom into the Billy Beane he always wanted. Not we’ve had disaster after disaster.
Mayer is 19. He played in A ball in 2022 and he will return to the Sally league to start the 2023 season. If all goes well, and there is only a 20% chance that happens, he will be in a Red Sox uni in 2025.
So what you are saying is that you are ok with having a bad SS until then?
Devers is destined to be a 1B or a DH. Do you really think that Bloom is going to sign him to the 12-14 years at a $35+ million AAV he will be asking for at age 26?
Yoshida is a DH that the Red Sox paid $21.5 million AAV for when you include the posting fees and he has not proven himself in MLB.
The Padres just signed a proven elite SS for $25.5 million AAV.
Jansen is a reliever. Almost every season the Padres sign or produce a new reliever on the cheap that puts up the type of numbers Jansen has put up the last few seasons
This season is was Suarez and Nabil Crismatt. Last season it was Melancon and Johnson, The season before it was Johnson and Strahm. You see a pattern there? Cheap and still very good.
Add them all up and they don’t make what Jansen is making this season.
Acell- also never claimed the roughly 3 million a year hit was only 3 years. I referred to the likely less productive years at the end of the contract as 3 years taked onto the end of the deal.
Man bloom is going to owe you overtime for trying to discredit his critics without addressing the fact he is a failure and hoes belong in his position, and, ignoring the facts of how he continues to spend money speculative rather than on known commodities.
I hope I’m wrong on Yoshi, but, await yet another bloom failure as the struggles show and can’t meet the historical production amd leadership Bogey gave.
So that NLCS was a mirage?
Age of 40. He turns 41 in October after the last regular season of this contract is over.
Chaim Bloom is a fool. And after another season of missing the playoffs hopefully they get rid of that clown. Worse GM since Harrington that’s over twenty years ago!
At $25.5 million AAV it won’t be much of a drag at all. With the salary inflation in MLB it wont be a top 100 AAV by 2030.
I don’t think anyone thinks this is a good contract, paying a glove-first shortstop until he’s 40, so I don’t blame Chaim for not matching the Padres offer.
But I do blame Chaim for even letting it get to this point. I’m sure the extension Xander would have signed a year or two ago to stay in Boston was much, much less.
Instead of extending Xander, he insulted him with a 1-year tack on offer, and made the terrible decision to sign Trevor Story–who largely had a failure of a year last year.
What a complete failue on Bloom’s fault. He’s playing this “I’m smarter than everyone arrogance game” and really he’s a bonehead moron.
People used to say ‘Dalbec, Chavis, and Casas are coming. We’ll bump one to first, one to second, put Casas at 3rd, and Devers will dh. This’ll be awesome.”
How have those three done so far?
Mayer is far away and young. Lots can, and will happen, between now and when he is ready for the show. And he isn’t that close.
But, at least bloom got rid of another guy who interferes with getting higher draft picks and predates his tenure right?
Machado has an opt out after 2023. I think Padres are looking for a bat knowing Machado may leave.
Unless Machado opts out after 2023.
I think opt outs are a great motivator for players. If they play well then the team wins as well.
Giants will be fine. I think Correa and Rodon will sign with them.
This (GASoxFan) is an example of a completely delusional Red Sox fan, who unfortunately have too much power over ownership as it is.
Signing Bogaerts for 11 seasons (LOL!) isn’t just “taking a loss for 3 years at the end.” The Padres could very well be taking the loss for 5 or 6 years at the end, as Bogaerts will be aged 35- 41 during those seasons.
The contract the Padres gave him is asinine, but they are in win-now mode so screw it.
Red Sox shouldn’t match that contract or come close to it, especially with Mayer and many other young players a few years away.
My god, this post is completely unhinged. Where to even start with this lol?
First, Devers is 25 years old so no, he will not “soon be entering his 30’s.”
Secondly, what do you mean his body type doesn’t age well? Ever heard of guys like Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, or Jose Abreu? They certainly weren’t the most chiseled guys but they have all smashed into their mid to late 30’s.
Third, Bloom literally almost took the team to the World Series *last season* lolol!
Get a grip.
That’s only because fans aren’t what they used to be
…….
I hear some of then took over on Moron Mountain.
Ha-ha….sorry, no amount of shared misery will make you feel better about that ridiculous signing.
Glove first? Do you even watch baseball?
The Giants said they were not pursuing Rodon.
I, personally, am not a Sox fan, but I do think Bloom is a complete schmo. However, an 11-year deal is absurd. I’d have to side with Bloom on this one.
dugmet – Yes most of Red Sox Nation isn’t very impressed with Bloom. I guess you can say he took it on the chin. BWAHAHAHA!!!
But this is on John Henry for not stepping in and insisting they sign their 13-year star franchise player. This played out EXACTLY as it did 8 years ago with Lester. Sox extended an insulting lowball offer earlier in the year to a guy who deserved better, and then came to regret it when it was too late. The common denominator then and now is John Henry.
As for John Henry owned Boston Globe reporter Pete Abe’s reporting last night of “momentum” …. BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!
I am truly happy for Xander. Great guy, excellent role model, team leader, and one of the best all-around players in the game. Real fans saw this coming more than a year ago. He earned his market value contract.
I saw that too and had to read it multiple times to make sure I wasn’t hullucinating. Bogaerts is definitely not a glove first shortstop.
cgaliant – You totally fine with Bloom extending nothing more than a $90M lowball offer before Xander became a free agent?
Or do you not believe in giving out reasonable contracts to franchise players BEFORE they become free agents?
“I am pleased that Mookie has settled in with a team that has no issues with diversity”? Mookie thanks you for buying into his fake-racism slander of a city that thought the world of him.
Rsox – Dodged a bullet? A year ago Bloom could have signed Xander for half the contract he got from the Padres.
Sorry, but anyone who is glad Xander is gone because they think $280M is what it would have taken to keep him is out of touch with reality.
Ben – Well said. Yoshida was a good risk worth taking, but in no way shape or form does it make up for the botched handling of Xander.
A 40yr old SS doesn’t sound great does it.
what are you talking about farhan is the man
bryan – First of all, an 11-year contract means it ends in October 2033. I know you’ve got only ten fingers, but c’mon man … use your toes too next time.
Second of all, the contract was spread out over 11 years instead of 8 years to reduce the AAV.
What difference does it make if it’s $280M over 8 years instead of $280M over 11 years?
Except the Padres get hit with a $25M AAV instead of $35M.
You know Xander is worth much more than $25M a year, right?
You don’t go to MLB games.
Send Chaim Bloom on the first flight out of Boston
GASox – Boston Globe shill Pete Abe will forever be known as the “momentum” man … and this time it has nothing to do with him heading to the buffet table.
Yep. The pods are paying to move into the big time. Ifthey end up wasting an extra 500 million to go from a perennial joke to a perennial playoff team it will be a good investment.
I think its remarkable how one man could demoralize a city and butcher the talent of a team in such a short period of time. Were about to lose our third potential hall of famer now. Well done Bloom, are you a New York Yankee?
They know something about the CBA, future media deals and how much more they can make with a great team in a huge market.
As fans we have to stop trying to make sense of baseball salaries and the sports profitability using our income, the luxury tax or past salaries. Those factors are completely meaningless and are manufactured excuses.
Market value shouldn’t be such a confusing concept.
Hint – it has zero to do with MLBTR trade rumor predictions and 100% to do with what other teams ate willing to pay.
OMG – Whatever will they do?
Could it be a…
Rebuild???!!
Welcome to MLB!
Correa is again watching his market disappear. Cubs, and Giants left. Twins starting to look like opportunists one more time. Swanson and Rosario, and possibly Kim, are other options for teams. I am thinking Boston was only after XB due to his status, and won’t pivot to a longer contract.
He has concerning injuries at his age. I’m okay with him going as well.
Glad he wasn’t stupid enough to pay that !…He is good but not great…worth half those years and money
“There is only a 20% chance that happens”…how do you reach that %?
How long will he be worth more than 25m a year?
I find it hilarious how many people think the GM is the one who decides whether or not to dish out a $280m contract.
Why extend devers when u can get a 4th round pick for him ?? Rotf….
@padsfan
They could just get a different SS. I hear Kim is available for trade.
@forevergiantsfan
Padres signing XB just guarenteed they won’t have money for Machado. You can start saying goodbye now.
I am concerned that it will now take 8 for Swanson, or take 11 for Correa. And they’d better extend Hoerner now while they are at it.
Moronic take. You’d be yapping the loudest in year 6.
No bullet dodged. They could have signed Bogaerts last winter for something like 7 years, $180 million, but were too stupid. Then they keep Martinez and Eovaldi at trade deadline to stay over the luxury tax so they couldn’t even get a decent draft compensation pick.
I love him. Great GM.
Overrated is an understatement. Does he hit? Yes, but not for enough power for his size. As a Red Sox fan, I’ve seen him play for a long time. He pisses me off more than he makes me happy at the plate. Watches good pitches and swings at bad ones. Not to mention his swing is horrible because it’s so level. Not enough to drive the ball.
Budgetball I think you’re right. Don’t they call this generation Z ? Something’s up that’s for sure..
Isn’t that most peoples? That he thought running that hodge podge that played at high levels when if you’d have asked people in March of 21 they’d have said ehh 80-82. It was 107 so running it back had to have at least been tempting. Gaussman made himself a sensation there. Ok so will rodon. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have expected big regression from a LOT (most) other roster spots.
I said a 7/196m base with three consecutive dual options, team/player – 24m/14m in ’30, 20m/10m in ’31, and 16m/6m in ’32.
==============================
The guarantee on that is $226M/10, against the Preller guarantee of $280M/11. That’s $54M, or ~ 25%.
So, if that’s not far off, how high would you have gone?
The Padres could very well be taking the loss for 5 or 6 years at the end, as Bogaerts will be aged 35- 41 during those seasons.
==================================
That’s really the part that some folks don’t get. The amount of years you “give away” has to be related to the amount of years that are positive. The issue with the Pujols contract was he was likely to give the Angels 1-2 good years, and 8-9 declining years.
OTOH, you have guys like Harper & Machado. They figured to give their teams 6-7 good years before decline sets in.
With Bogaerts, he figures to give the Padres 2-3 good years, and 8-9 declining years. In addition, the mixture of the years counts. For example, Machado’s final three years of his contract are declining years. The final three years of Bogaerts contract are likely to be replacement-level years.
My god, this post is completely unhinged.
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RS fans do ‘unhinged’ like it is an art form.
Who the hell is Yoshida?
You know Xander is worth much more than $25M a year, right?
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Stuff like this plays out better if you had made a prediction. I agree with the idea that it is a $280M/8 contract, but since I put his number at $196M/7, I feel perfectly okay letting him go.
Di you ever write that a $280M/8 contract was okay? If you did, then kudos. If you didn’t, then it sounds like you were going to criticize the final result regardless of price.
Not in California…unless you’re splitting 2 Big Macs
I hear Kim is available for trade.
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As a RS fan, I’d be all over that.
They could have signed Bogaerts last winter for something like 7 years, $180 million
================================
I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and ask you how you know this.
If you think Xander is a glove first shortstop you should probably stop commenting for a bit and watch some baseball games.
“The Jap?” Sounds like Betts was right about Boston fans. But if you don’t believe Betts ask any African American who played basketball or baseball in Boston about the racism of some (not all) of the fans
That inflation will also eat at consumer purchasing options as salaries don’t keep pace. These deals are MLB teams speculating in the end that inflation will make them better deals on a decade. But there are outside effects on MLB itself….shrinking fan base that can’t be replaced, readily.
Budget ball, if that’s the case they are optimistic about a game with a shrinking fan base averaging 61 years of age that will not be able to replace its baby boomer fans readily….all in a tricky entertainment and economic environment. Perhaps they know a grand scheme for the game going forward that the general person doesn’t see. Gambling? Computer AI? No idea. But they’re going go have a hard time selling tickets and TV views as the world moves along.
I feel like people just conflate anything that has anything to do with someone’s race with, “racism”.
Or Halos Rsox =)
A lot of teams might see lower TV deals than they expect next time around, as well.
No way they could’ve signed him for that. Remember who his agent is?! Idiotic takes on this. He did what he should do, go get the most years and most money. Fevers will go next.
Very pleased Bloom did not hand out a ridiculous contract like that to Bogaerts.
In part, I would expect the owners to discount each year of salary in the future according to expected inflation. What will the today’s roughly $25m be equivalent to in eleven years? Each successive year gets easier to fund if two assumptions are accepted and hold. One, inflation continues at even a moderate rate. (No inflation is unlikely regardless of what party is in power. Deflation, while seemingly attractive, is a disaster for economies.) Two, revenues keep up with inflation.
PadsFan:
1) Bogaerts AAV is 25.5M. He will NOT be playing when he’s 41, so that AAV is higher, or if you mean against the Salary Cap, you have to change Yoshida’s AAV because that includes the posting fee, and that doesnt count against the Salary Cap either. Either way, the gap is much bigger than you are admitting.
2) San Diego is a terrible hitters park. The pitchers get a big advantage, not to mention much weaker opponents on average. When those reliever, you speak of, leave SD they revert back to mediocrity, because of these reason, not some magical coaching going on in SD, or whatever you think it is.
@dugmet, that’s the thing about these deals, any deals. They all eventually seem more reasonable in a few years once new deals are announced.
@Fever, when I saw that “momentum” story yesterday, I figured for sure there’d be an announcement within a day he was returning to the Red Sox. I suspect Xander would have returned for less than $280 (maybe an 8/240?), but an $80MM gap was too much.
I think they know something about the future of baseball that we don’t. Like 2 new teams bringing in $4 billion in franchise fees and increased revenue from the number of teams in the playoffs increasing to 14 and maybe even some bumps in both national TV and streaming deals.
Next season he plays at 30, so that means his last season of this deal he will be 40.
Bloom is uniquely adept at driving out high-priced homegrown players and re-stocking the roster with replacement-level talent.
They’ll have to commit nearly half a billion to sign those two. Yikes
Not glad Xander is gone, just glad they won’t be paying him for his ages 38-41 seasons
There’s gotta be some movement in SF toward Correa and Nimmo NOW!
May it be so.
I have always loved baseball and have followed it since I was eight years old. I’ve been on the planet a long time. The contracts (and the money owners are making) are becoming obscene, and it’s definitely beginning to impact my love for the game.
If First Responders, teachers and health workers were paid fairly, I wouldn’t care. But they’re not. The disparity of wealth will soon (if not already) ruin the quality of life in our country.
I don’t think Peter Seidler (Padres owner) has any limits. People squawk about the Mets Steve Cohen, but the amount of money these owners have (and others) is outrageous.
SaintChris — “Glove-first shortstop?” What player have you been watching?
ForeverGiantsFan — That’s what the post suggests. Can you imagine what Machado will be asking for in THAT contract????
May it be so. I’ll even take Senga if Rodon goes elsewhere, leaves more money for Nimmo.
Pads Fans — Where did you hear that?
Pete, Since 8 years old!??? What the heck took you so long? Haha
What player have I been watching? Are you an idiot? Xander has graded out as average or slightly below average as a defender his entire career. Look at the numbers.
The Red Sox considered moving him off short for years, and many wondered if he would even play the position on a new team or be asked to move to 3b.
Ichiro would have been a .270 hitter without his speed. A lot of his hits were infield grounders that he beat out because he was so fast.
As much as I love Bogaerts, an 11 year deal for him at age 30 is ridiculous. I don’t blame Boston for not matching this deal. They question his DEF now at SS at age 30. What will they be saying by age 35, 37, 39, etc. Maybe this is the cost of doing business these days in free agency but I don’t blame Boston for walking away from this deal. With that said, the absolutely should offer Devers a 10 year deal given his age. I’ll be very disappointed if they don’t work out an extension with Devers, unless he is looking for a 14 year commitment.
^Conveniently omitting the fact that the Sox probably could have extended him for 6/$180ish last winter, but chose to lowball; l or at the very least flipped him at the deadline for more replacement-level pieces…
SaintChris — So, you agree with me that he’s NOT a “glove first ss.” And why call me an idiot. You don’t know me and this forum doesn’t need that crap.
I’ve been thinking that the world ends just days after the Padres win it all.
Joe, that’s the floor guarantee. Ceiling with the incentives wound up at 276m/10 maximized out. You keep only quoting a portion of the offer I stick there.
Maybe he would’ve taken less than a 280m from preller, but, bloom topped out at 160/6 which was 120m less. That’s huge
If you read the reporting over the year, Bogey was stressed about the FA process, and, hated every minute of it. I honestly think the years and knowing he doesn’t need to do FA again unless he feel like playing at an old age (not likely) played a big role here.
So, how far would I go? If I had to I’d make those three options straight player options at the top number, and see if that stuck. If that didn’t work, I’d go further.
Had Bogey stayed with the sox 10 more years I think youd see his number retired in fenway.
Joe – I know you’re trolling again, but sure I’ll reiterate my stance for the 20th time so that newbies will know.
I wanted Xander signed more than a year ago, when he would have accepted $180M or less over 6 years. Once Bloom simultaneously gave Story $140M and lowballed Xander with a $90M offer, myself and everyone except you knew he was gone I would never have wanted Bloom to give him $280M after he had the opportunity to sign him for approx half that amount.
Of course you support Bloom’s handling of the Xander situation, you support him on everything because him and Henry are destroying the franchise and you’re loving every minute of it.
Joe – If you ever get married, remember this: Don’t treat your wife like crap and wait until she divorces you if you want to keep her.
Once she starts dating other men (or women), it’s too late … she’s gone.
It’s the exact same thing with baseball players who get treated like crap the way Xander did. To give Story $140M at nearly the exact same time that he lowballed Xander with a $90M is a clearcut sign Bloom didn’t value Xander.
Stop trolling, call it what it is.
– fenway fanatic, why a flight? Aren’t there any local infrastructure projects around?
Fever: Why do you think Xander would have signed for half the Padres contract a year ago? I just can’t see Boras settling for that.
Sox offered Devers 8 years – he wants 10 so I believe they will trade him. They should have traded Bogaerts since they were never going to sign him.
Bloom wants to stick to 5-6 year contracts but seems he will go to 8 for the right player.
Red Sox will make $479 million in 2023 according to NBC but Henry wants a higher return on his investment than he is getting apparently.
11/280 is a bad deal for Bogaerts.
You can say what you want about Bloom but he is not wrong for passing on this.
That’s a horrible contract and future albatross.
Mayer ended the year in A+. There’s a very real chance he plays in A+ for a month or not at all.
He could be the opening day SS in 2024 if things go right. Barring an injury or serious decline—he’ll almost certainly be the RS opening day SS in 2025.
There is less than a 20% chance Mayer ever becomes a league average shortstop in the majors. An 80% chance he never makes it or only becomes a 0.0-1.9 WAR player. Those are the odds for both a 1st round draft pick and top 100 prospect.
The 11 year trade off, yes it lowers his AVV yearly. Which you trade off for the fact you’ll be paying him the last 3 years for laying on his couch.
You know for certain he won’t be playing at the end of his contract Nostradamus? Your crystal ball seems to be a mite bit mudy because his contract ends with his age 40 season. He will not be under contract with the Padres for his age 41 season. Try to keep up with the basics.
There is no salary cap in baseball, there is a CBT threshold. A huge difference those two things. Please pay attention.
The Red Sox are still paying that money. Whether its going to Yoshida or the Orix Buffaloes, its still coming out of the Red Sox pockets. Or didn’t you notice that fact?
The Padres are paying $25.5 million per season on average for Bogaerts and the Red Sox are paying $21.5 million per season on average for Yoshida.
The gap is exactly what I said. Nothing more. Nothing less. Spin doesn’t change facts.
What those relievers do before or after is not germane to the discussion. What they do when they are Padres is. They were as good or better in Park Adjusted Stats while playing for the Padres as Jansen was the last 3 seasons. Jansen 132/191/121 ERA+. Padres relievers I mentioned 157Johnson/175Melancon/128 Crismat ERA+ That is a park and league adjust stat. Add them all up and they don’t cost what Jansen will cost by the All Star break this season.
The Dodgers are weaker opponents? Their 217 wins are the most in baseball the last 2 seasons and 26 more than the Yankees. The Giants with their 188 wins over the last 2 seasons? Rays and Jays had less wins. Over the last 2 seasons the Padres opponents had 9 more wins than the Red Sox opponents.
So you felt that at 7/196 that he was worth $2.5 million more per season than he got from the Padres. Do you think any team that signs a long term deal cares what happens in season 8-11?
Mr Yoshida, the terriyaki guy. https://www.mryoshidas.com/AboutMrYoshida
Actually, its 7/210 (196+14 option buyout) or 8/220 (196+24 for the 8th season) so depending on if the 1st option is declined or picked up. $30 million AAV or $27.5 million AAV
You can do the math on the AAV from this point on,
Then there is the 2nd option decision. If its declined its 8/230. If its picked up its 9/240.
Then there is the final option. If its declined its 9/246. If its picked up its 10/256.
I think he will get a longer deal. Looking at other signings I would guess he gets 8 years. Minnesota is interested.
Fielding percentage is virtually meaningless. Go look up his defensive runs saved, outs above average, and ultimate zone rating, and get back to us. I know he’s not known as a good defender, but fielding percentage is a stat from the 19th century that tells us very little about his ability.
You’re a pud.
Meant to type “bat first shortstop.” Sorry for the confusion.
Yes, Pete. I made a mental error there with my wording. I meant to type “bat first.” I am an idiot.
I’m on the fifth day of a seven day trip at Disney, with 4 kids in tow. My mind is a little cooked. Forgive me.
I wonder how they will feel about him letting Bogey walk 11 years from now.
Orioles, Braves,Dodgers,Red sox and others could now be in the mix. His market could be hotter then ever.
Correction….age 41. Lol
Jtm2889 – Agreed, Mayer is currently one of the top 3 prospects in all of the Minor Leagues. He will make his MLB appearance most likely in 2024, and he is worth the wait!
Bogaerts, and the left side of the Red Sox infield defense, has been bad. Bogaerts is NOT a good defensive SS and will only get MUCH worse with the banning of the shift starting in 2023!
Bogaerts has been a great run producer in the past. In 2022 he sucked complete with weak contact and very little clutch hitting. Check out the number of left-on-base this year complete with very little power.
I am glad Bogaerts was a great Red Sox player, but I am ready to see the next great Red Sox SS.
You want to wait until he’s 40 to get him?
🙂
This is just nonsense.
A 5 year deal does not equal 11 and the posting fee isn’t used for AAV purposes so it won’t hamstring the team when they push up against the tax line.
Both deals might be absolute garbage but if you’re loving on the Bogey deal—those glasses have a huge tint of rose
No problem, enjoy the Pirates of the Caribbean,
The posting fee is not included in AAV calculation for the CBT payroll, but it certainly is something that the team has to spend and it is part of the average annual cost of the player. Makes no sense to try to say otherwise.
Bogaerts is a proven superstar that got a deal that means the Padres will pay him $25.5 million per season on average.
Yoshida is an unknown that played in a league that equates with AAA in the US in terms of the stat dropoff when moving to the majors and he got a deal that will cost the Red Sox an average of $21.5 million per season.
Both are going into their age 30 season.
Mayers is 19 and is a top 10 prospect in baseball, not top 3 as no list had him above 7. He will return to A+ ball to start the season in 2023.
If everything goes right, he might get to majors in 2024 for a cup of coffee late in the season, but the chance of him being a regular in the majors before 2025 are slim and none.
Betting on high draft picks, even those that are top 10 prospects, to be Bogaerts level players is a losing proposition 95% of the time.
I should have pointed out that I was answering JoeBrady
Devers is 26 years old. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml
GASoxfan – OUTSTANDING. You hit the nail on the head. Smoke and mirrors and no accountability for lack of performance. The last part speaks to the mindset of ownership.
Bogaerts during his introduction to San Diego was asked what his main criteria was for picking a team this off season.
His answer speaks volumes to the current situation
“I wanted to be in an organization that wanted to win”
No better classy slap in the face to Bloom and Owners than that comment.
The fans feel the same way. This ownership gave us a great taste of winning and then pulled the rug out from under our feet when they fired Dombrowski. Now Philly fans have what Bloom promised and couldn’t deliver ….. sustained winning and a bright future.
With all the money available in 2023 thanks to Dombrowski retool plan for 2023, Bloom had a chance to fix what he broke and instead he’s making it worse. Each deal or should I say “missed deal” (Bogey)) or bad deal (Yoshida) moves the team farther from a championship.
Seems like you and I are on the same page when it comes to realistically looking at what Bloom has done and not done.
Doesn’t matter if he averages 3 WAR per season then we got value. And that 3 WAR is worth $8mil now so in the future that $8mil cost will only get much higher
Take all the 1st round picks or all the Top 100 prospects over the past 20 seasons and see what percentage put up a league average WAR in the majors. The percentage for both groups is very close to the same,
Bogaerts has averaged more than double league average WAR over the past 6 seasons. Less than 5% of top prospects do that.
Nope. Kim is not available in trade. Preller made that clear in his presser today.
What SS is out there and available in FA or trade that matches Bogaerts numbers? How much is he being paid?
JoeBrady – You must really hate Bogaerts with your 2-3 year estimate. Didn’t you also say Mookie was going to do badly in LAD? How’s that working out?
Machado and Harper are far bigger risks than Bogaerts because of their injury history, their body types and the way they play.
Lets count the number of games missed by Bogaerts versus Harper and Machado over the next three years let alone the last part of their contracts. Bogaerts like Mookie takes care of himself, plays under control and doesn’t end up on the IL. His hitting isn’t as good as Harper and Machado but that’s reflected in the amount paid each player. Bogaerts has a contract that will provide value if he posts a 130 OPS+ for the next 6 years. Harper and Manny need to do more than that to have better paybacks than Bogaerts.
Comparison of OPS+ since 2018
2018 to 2022
Bogaerts – 135, 139, 128, 129 and 131 = Games played 641
Harper – 133, 126, 158, 179, 145 = Games played 614 (will miss 1/2 2023)
Machado – 122, 110, 160, 131, 159 = Games played – Games played 585
Machado 10 years $300MM with AAV of $30MM AAV
Harper 13 years $330MM AAV of $25.38 thanks to $20MM bonus in YR1
Bogaerts 11 years $ with AAV of $25.45MM AAV
Harper is 26 to 38 in his deal made in 2019
Machado is 26 to 35 in his deal made in 2019
Bogaerts is 30 to 40 in his deal made in 2023
Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Musgrove and Darvish cost $117MM roughly leaving another $100MM for the remaining players, minor league contracts and Benefits. Staying under the cap can happen with smart choices.
The Bogaerts deal needs high returns through 2027 the current planning horizon. After that, like Dombrowski planned in Boston, the GM will retool the future roster and will need to deal with the potential slide of older players but the money available by then will be far greater and the impact of Bogaerts or Tatis or Machado failing will be far less.
With two available all-star quality shortstops in Correa and Bogaerts and a one step down guy like Swanson also on the market it made perfect sense to get Bogaerts for much less than Correa especially when you consider how few games per year Correa plays. Let LAD pay the big bucks for Correa and watch how many more games Bogaerts plays for less money.
I guess Yankees are interested in Correa (Giants will be bridesmaid again). New York teams don’t care about the luxury tax.
Fever – Nice response to JoeBrady.
It’s amazing how many national sports people are saying the same thing – “I have no idea what the Red Sox are doing” I counted 9 MLB channel personalities voicing the same comment.
My question is = Why is ownership oblivious to the massive embarrassment they are enduring with Bloom? Do they really think misdirection by over-paying for a foreign player can be spun into a positive?
I feel like it’s the end of January 2020 and Bloom is once again pulling a Barney Fife and shooting himself in the foot. With $100MM at his disposal I wonder how many $12MM a year guys he will sign over the next 4 months.
Bloom runs a big market team that has the worst defensive 3B in baseball, a LAD throw away slotted for centerfield, a minor league player slotted for right field, a cheap average veteran and two young players who can’t hit for average playing 1B, a journeyman reject from the Giants playing 2B and an all-star from Colorado who under performed in year 1 playing SS. He doesn’t have a legitimate catcher and that’s just the offense!!!
He’s got an elite SP who can’t stay healthy under Cora as his #1 SP, a broken down seldom good journeyman SP in Paxton, an outstanding SP in Houck who will probably be misused by his under qualified manager and 3 really good looking minor league pitchers who might prove to be keepers. BUT he’s got a top closer now who is nearly Tom Brady’s age, a couple of set-up men who are highly touted and Whitlock a Rule-5 steal who didn’t reach his 2021 level in 2022.
A hot toxic mess in Boston. Can’t wait to see the pink slip for Bloom.
ForeverGiantsFan — I find that hard to believe with two of the best SS prospects in baseball in the Yankee system. Peraza and Volpe, with Cabrera also potentially at SS (though they’ve played him in LF alot). Even Gleyber can play there in a pinch.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for the Yankees to go after Correa, but it doesn’t make much sense in dollars or in Yankee fans minds. (Holding a grudge about the cheating scandal.)
The Dodgers are out for the same reason. I think it comes down to the Twins and Giants, although I suppose the Cubs could surprise everyone and move Hoerner to 2B.
But I’ll tell you this, if Farhan strikes out on Correa, he better not come back with Swanson (who played above his head last year and isn’t worth the money.)
Or Farhan better have some amazing trades in his pocket. If not, Giant fans will have the pitchforks out.
Hammerin – Like in the movie Top Gun, your data appears to be inaccurate!!
Fielding percentage is a fact not a simulation. It’s not impacted by the clown fielding next to you. It’s not based on a one time set of circumstances extrapolated into the future. It’s actual performance data.
Binary success at fielding is all that matters. Do a cartwheel and make the catch and throw the ball away is worse than standing in front of the ball fielding it cleanly and throwing out the runner. That’s what the game is about not “what if” scenarios.
Execution is far more important than flare, showmanship or speed. New school thinking lacks baseball savvy.
If you learn the game fundamentals you wouldn’t bash fielding percentage. You would use it for what it provides. An accurate measure of success of a fielder that can be used to evaluate the overall performance of a player on defense.
Joe Brady – As of today, and it will change as the post season progresses, a point of bWAR is worth $10.2 million for the AAV of the FA signings.
How may WAR do the Padres need Bogaerts to put up to recoup their annual investment at $10.2 million per point of WAR? So if he puts up 4-6 WAR in each of the next 3 seasons like he did in 2022, how much surplus value did he create?
Lets say for sake of argument that we start with the average of his last two seasons as the base, not his 2022 season, and assume that FA player salaries do not increase after 2023.
We also will assume that Bogaerts follows the typical regression pattern for star level players from age 31 on.
That is 14.7 WAR. A 7+ WAR surplus worth $71.4 million surplus value or a little more over the next 3 seasons.
If he continues to regress at the same pace as most 33-35 year old players and puts up 12 WAR, that is another $45-46 in surplus value.
Now the Padres are 6 years into an 11 year deal and have $116 million in surplus value give or take a couple million.
Player regression accelerates at age 35 so those numbers no longer look as good. Over the next 3 years the Padres will be lucky break even on Bogaerts age 36-38 salaries with a projected 6.0 WAR. Lets say its a little worse than the regression projections say it will be and they lost 2.5 WAR over that 3 year period. That is a $25.6 million deficit in value.
The last 2 years will be brutal. A full point of WAR would be a good outcome based on the regression we have seen in 39-40 year old players. . Lets say that they get absolutely ZERO production for those years. They pay $51 million for him to sit on the IL.
Lets do the math. A $116 surplus value his first 6 seasons and a $77 million deficit his last 5.
That is a profit.
Even if FA salaries end up being closer to the $9.5 million per point of bWAR that was projected going into the FA period, meaning everyone that signs after today gets less AAV than what was projected by MLBTR, do the math and you will find that the Padres will have broken even on Bogaerts contract.
You can be sure the Padres went through a process much like this that also included things like merchandise sales, playoff revenue and increased ticket sales into the equation. The Padres should do just fine on this deal.
$120 million gap. The largest Red Sox offer was 6/160 according to Abraham.
Range matters. If you play everything you get to but you have the range of a fencepost, then your fielding % will be 1.000 but you’re still a crappy defender.
Joe – We’ve been through this before, anything short of a link to a direct quote from Xander you will quickly dismiss.
Here’s plenty of facts: Xander’s market value increased substantially after last year’s contracts signed by Seager, Baez, Correa and Semien.
Since 2018 Xander has been a much, much better hitter than all of them and even Lindor. Look at the OPS since 2018 of all those guys, then look at the contracts they signed.
Then the Red Sox gave Story $140M. This is why prior to this season Xander wouldn’t budge from 6/$180M, because anybody with at least half a brain would know he deserved it …. and that was BEFORE he put up a GG caliber season and got MVP votes for a 5th consecutive season.
Mayer is a great prospect, but as the saying goes, “Their Aint No Such Thing as a Sure Thing Prospect.”
If he excels and jumps a couple levels next season, that puts his timeline to be a regular everyday starter in 2025. The big problem is that its not a sure thing that he will even be that good in the majors. More of these kids flame out than make it as a regular.
No team with revenue like the Red Sox should wait 3 years for a potential savior. Not if they want to be winners.
Since this seems to be hard for you, I will lay it out year by year so you can visualize it.
2023 – 30
2024 – 31
2025 – 32
2026 – 33
2027 – 34
2028 – 35
2029 – 36
2023 – 37
2031 – 38
2032 – 39
2033 – 40
11 years. Contract over
Stymeed, The Padres just signed Bogaerts for 4 million more than they were paying Myers. How does that block them from extending Machado?
I didn’t realize that $/WAR was so high. Also didn’t believe your math so I checked it out. Damn. It has gone up $1.5 million in one year.
PadsFan – Both Devers and Xander were called up to the majors at Age 20 and stayed. There is no reason why Mayer won’t do the same, he’s expected to join the big club in 2024.
AA is where prospects cut their chops the most, if they master AA then quite often they will play very few games at AAA before getting called up. Sometimes players get called up directly from AA.
Milt – You’re siding with the guy who could have signed Xander to $180M last year, but chose to lowball him with an insulting $90M offer?
Not a good move, man.
SaintChris – Glove first? Never heard that description before. WOW!! Thank you. For years I’ve been arguing the modern metrics have been bogus due to Devers cutting off too many balls that impact Bogaerts range and runs saved. I guess you agree.
My issue is how do you call the SS with a top 3 OPS+ over the last 3, 4 or 5 years not an offensive threat. HRs from SS is a luxury not a necessity. Run production, timely hitting and on base percentage all favor Bogaerts as a top HITTING SS too.
At age 30 nobody is buying him a cane, he has plenty of good years left, especially playing in an organization that isn’t toxic like Boston. Losing Mookie was a big blow to Bogaerts. He saw the hand writing on the wall under Bloom and has dreaded having to leave the place he loves. I wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers go up being somewhere he is loved by ownership and management not just the fans.
We are on the same page with Bloom. I love your BoNEHEAD MORON comment. He needs to go before he throws away over $100MM in future payroll to guys who make $12MM a year like Kike Hernandez, Arroyo and the other worthless KMART players he’s signed. His most recent Yoshida mistake is a perfect example of what’s wrong. A bad fielding slap hitter to play left field for far more money than Benintendi would command in free agency. He’s downgrading every position!!
C – Vazquez to NOBODY
1B – Using Dombrowski’s minor league players
2B – Pedroia/Nunez/Holt to Arrovy
SS – Bogaerts to Story
3B – Devers still a mistake at 3B
LF – Benny to Yoshida
CF – Renfroe to Kike
RF – Mookie to Refsnyder
DH – JD to NOBODY
SP – Sale still there for now
SP – Price to Paxton
SP – Eovaldi to TBD
SP – EROD to (fill with a Dombrowski minor league pitcher)
SP – Porcello to (fill with a Dombrowski minor league pitcher)
CL – Kimbrel to a very senior Kenley Jansen
Relievers – Too many to mention
Comparing roster inherited to current roster is embarrassing to everyone except the owners for some reason. Even the press is harping about how pathetic the Red Sox are while pointing out their lack of direction.
SaintChris all we can do is fight the good fight to get rid of Bloom!!!!
JTm2889 – So Bloom pays you to comment. Congrats.
Devers has a late birthday which makes him a 26 right now and nearly 27 by next season. With all the facts presented why quibble over the fact that 2 1/2 years qualifies as near 30?: Because you have no valid arguments. You want to stay in grey areas.
Your body type examples are a joke because you left off Cecil Fielder and his son, you left off Panda. You also exaggerated with Abreu and Manny. They were never pudgy players in their early 20s. Miggy is a perfect example of a guy dropping off due to weight gained as he aged. Thank you for proving my point.
Dombrowski’s carryover players took Boston farther than they should have ever advanced and Bloom had next to nothing to do with it. 2020 and 2022 were no flukes 2021 was the fluke as we all saw in 2022. Now all the great carry over players are being replaced and Boston is becoming a desolate location for quality baseball. Red Sox fans may have to wait 5 years for their next all-star player. Devers might make the all-stars in 2023 and then play somewhere else and in the meantime the savior of the franchise isn’t doing well in the minors so he may never be an all-star or he will be in many years. Great future for fans!!!
Take your Bloom money and go buy a bicycle. Your ideas are those of a toddler.
Fever – Take a hard look at Yoshida’s numbers in an inferior baseball league. He can be summarized as a slap hitting bad fielding left fielder without speed. Does that help the Red Sox? He could bat lead off since we haven’t had a good one since Mookie got pushed out the door. His OBP is his one redeeming quality. Adding another bad glove makes perfect sense since the team is leaving the worst 3B in history at 3B going forward. Defense is not a priority to the Red Sox which is why they finished 5th. No talent usually means no wins. Less talent usually means less wins.
That’s the near future of the Red Sox until Bloom is gone. I still think the Yankees are paying him a stipend to be this bad. Could he really have such a poor understanding of baseball after sitting in a room with so many great baseball minds in TB?
A 40 yr old DH who still has an OBP of .350 doesn’t sound so bad as a transition for Bogaerts once he loses a step.
Flaiming = The process is for the GM to a present trade and/or free agent signing to the ownership team. At that point all parties are culpable
If a deal ISN’T brought to the table and doesn’t happen then it’s on the GM. If he brings one to the table and it gets rejected then it’s on the ownership group.
Baseball organizations all work the same way. Only the participants vary and their influence on the steps within the standard process..
Ebouch25 – I’m ok with you not liking his hitting as long as he remains a top 3 OPS+ guy at SS. I’m thinking the OPS+ stat might be more reliable.
Dock – Very insightful comments. I agree the shrinking fan base should be a concern BUT the world of marketing has stopped normal marketing trends and redefined them. Who would have expected the windfall revenues from allowing gambling into baseball? That more than off set the fall in the fan base. It’s hard to say where the future will go with new innovative sources for revenue for baseball. Most teams seem very optimistic these days not practical. They are not proceeding with caution.
jbryant – You are very pleased to see Bogaerts leave the Red Sox because the owners saved roughly $10MM a year for a decade and are losing a home grown HOFer? It’s not your money. Your ticket prices won’t go down. You’ll have to watch an inferior team.
Why are you “very pleased”? Envy that ballplayers make so much money?
Comments like yours need more depth so others can understand why. you feel so strongly.
Pete – I enjoyed your view and agree that the disparity between providing valued services like first responders versus entertainment services is ridiculous.
Here is a small point of clarification. Given the world as it has existed in baseball since we were young, the money has always been a fight between the owners making the profits and the players. The players are the actual entertainment while the owners historically provided the financing for the league. The world has changed and the entertainment industry has blossomed. Top end players now make money more equivalent to other big time entertainers.
When we look at the Bogaerts deal it comes down to a simple trade-off. Would you rather see one person who is the entertainment receive the money for his services or would you rather see it become part of the profits of the organization that makes roughly $330MM annually. That’s not including the rising value of the franchise.
For me, I would love to see the entertainment industry levied with a tax that is to be paid without governmental intervention to the service industries of the world so we could have more and better teachers, firemen and health workers. It won’t happen but you and I are on the same page about how the distribution of income in the US continues to move in the wrong direction.
Great post.
PulledaBloom — Your idea, or any idea for that matter that provides funding for first responders, health workers, service industry people, etc in general, works for me.
We know that Machado, Harper and Judge, (for instance) are all top “entertainers” in their profession, just as is Margo Robbie, The Rock, DiCaprio, Tom Cruise, Denzel and many more are in film.
I can live with all entertainers who have reached the top of their professions making that kind of money (and the CEO’s and money movers making even more), as long as they are properly taxed, paying their fair share of being in our system. That way the really important people in our society (the givers) are properly rewarded so the society, as a whole, thrives.
We seem to be getting further and further away from that.
The Red Sox still pay out that money right? So it IS a cost to the team for that player.
Not giving out that contract should make the day even better. I feel bad for Padres fans long term. Hope they win a championship in the next couple of years.
At this point, they better. Gotta remember how the dodgers were before the sox traded to them in 2012…after that they went wild
Why? They have elite young talent for the next ten years. Their future looks great.
No salary cap in MLB. I feel bad for fans of teams that don’t spend.
I think the top 10-12 teams are telling smaller market teams where to stick it after the last CBA agreement. The luxury tax should be at least 50 million higher then it is.
No, it shouldn’t. Remove MLB’s anti-trust exemption and allow teams to sell to wealthier owners like Mark Cuban and everyone wins.
I don’t. Pittsburgh native Mark Cuban wanted to buy the Pirates and MLB blocked him thanks to its anti-trust exemption. Don’t blame big markets.
Mark cuban wouldn’t even be that wealthy compared to many current owners. He’s having a hard enough time running his mediocre basketball team.
I feel bad for those teams missing out on prospects.
You never noticed how good the Padres are?
Do you really think any of them are worried about the teams payroll in 2030?
Where?
30 is not “young” when signing an 11 year contract.
Paying Xander Bogaerts until age 41 is insane! AJ Preller is insane! That’s my reaction. Thanks for everything in Boston, Xander.
AJ is smart. You think he will still be there after year 5 when the production starts to fade.
suit – The contract was structured to reduce the AAV over the years.
You know he’s worth a lot more than $25M per year, right?
So if the $280M was spread out over just 8 years, what’s the difference?
Better to take the $25M annual hit than $35M.
Exactly…Thanks but no thanks to that contract !….Machado,Bogey …WOW
Fever: I think it was about the the number of years, not the AAV. I don’t like long, expensive deals where the player is an expensive drag on the team at the end of the deal. This is the Yankees problem now with Hicks, DJ LeMahieu, Stanton and I think Judge will get to that point too.
kcmark: Will Preller get rid of Bogaerts the same way he got rid of Hosmer – pay 95% of his salary for him to play for another team?
Definitely not
$25 million is an expensive drag on a team? 8 years from now do you really think that $25 million will be a large sum of money to a MLB team?
I have mixed feelings. I’m very sad Xander’s gone, but that contract is so objectively terrible I’m glad they didn’t give it to him. I
Boston didn’t get xander, but, did pick up a low 4th rd pick thanks to blooms mismanagement!
But at least they got 2 months of Tommy Pham!
In true bloom keeping he will now probably pivot and make a terrible signing. Or worse, plug story in at SS.
If this is their plan, and were tanking yet another year, grab Iglesias for his solid d. He has always been a good contact hitter with the sox too.
Unfortunately, that would make sense as a bandaid here so bloom won’t do it. And if Mayer isn’t in top 2 ROY and in his first full season an all-star bloom ought to be run up the fenway flagpole in January by his ankles.
GAsox, The first thing Bloom said was that they could plug Story in at shortstop.
So okay with a pass on this one.
I mean, I definitely don’t mind the Red Sox matching that.
even better now… huge overpay…
Apparently the Pujols and Cabrera contracts have taught us nothing. Agents run MLB.
Padres have to sign free agents they traded all their prospects away
They just produce a lot more prospects than most teams. There’s more still coming
Their farm is basically just Jackson Merrill, Dylan Lesko and Samuel Zavala, none of whom will be Padres anymore this time next year.
Not a bad strategy. Yankees have traded everything away except top prospects and achieved no WS success. Best strat is probably to hold on to prospects or just go for it and unload everything in an attempt to pool enough talent to win a WS.
That’s not true at all lol
Especially Merrill, unless they want a lineup with 4 SSs
Wow. You really are Tim Dierkes’ nephew.
I would add Snellling as one with significant trade value as well
Keep an eye on Connor Hollis. He is old to be a prospect, but he was drafted out of college at 23. Professional hitter. Someone is going to give him a shot in the majors and not be disappointed by the year or two he gives them.
MLBTR’s prediction was only off by 100 million dollars.
I think Machado will opt at end of 2023 season and Soto will be a free agent I believe. Signing may be to replace one of those bats.
Soto will not be a FA until after 2024. If Manny opts out it will be because he had another MVP type season. I am good with that.
From his actions and his words its pretty clear he wants to end his career in San Diego, so I am confident the Padres will get an extension done that keeps him here.
If Bogey is getting 11 years @280. Manny is opting out of 5/150 so fast. Unless this market crashes like the real estate market in 2008.
Won’t surprise me either.
Machado’s current contract takes him through his age 35 season at $30 million AAV. Maybe he is willing to gamble on a new 10/250 deal, but an extension at what Bogaerts is making AAV for 4-5 years would probably keep him in San Diego.
Terrible signing lol. 11 years for a 30 year old. Preller is lost. You can’t just add players with no positions to play them, move players out of there natural positions and hope it works out. There’s no core to this team.
Somehow I feel like Correa will end up staying with the Twins 1/41
160 mph!
Oh no, 2 top SS signing 11 yr. contracts…Looks like the Braves will have to offer a bonanza to Swanson & pay him until he gets his first social security check. I smell buyer’s remorse from Phil & SD 6 or 7 years from now.
Why is this thread still even getting posts?!
The new notification system I would guess. That and the fact that many Red Sox fans are truly fanatics.
W H O A
Are they including a Cost Of Living Adjustment in these contracts to offset for the possibility of ongoing inflation?
is that supposed to be a joke…?
It’s no joking matter, imo.
Say inflation stays around 18% for 10 years.
Owners will make out like bandits on these lengthy contracts without a COLA adjustment.
It’s good for Xander. He is out from under blooms inconsistent moves and lack of commitment to building a winner.
In SD he shouldn’t have the ops dept torpedoing morale, and, with things locked in should have a disrespect issue like in Beantown.
Xman will sure be missed. All of red sox nation wishes him well. SD – show him the love he deserves, you got a good one. Great clubhouse leader and mentor to some of your younger players. Gives it his all in everything he does.
Hope this move is everything he dreamed of.SD – you got an Xman for Xmas.
Oh god. That’s exactly what Royals fans said about Eric Hosmer 5 years ago!
If you want you can give him back 😉
It was too good of a deal not to take but it feels like a knife in the stomach. Chaim Bloom has managed to get rid up all our hometown talent and add it with new bad talent. Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Betts were the heart and soul of Boston and he threw it all away without caring. He just took 2 maybe 3(Devers) Hometown Hall of Famers and let them go without a fight. Bloom needs to be gone. Red Sox nation will NEVER heal. I’m going to go cry in a corner.
Wow, players do wanna play in California after all! They already have a star short stop. Trade coming?
He’ll be in the OF
Oh… so no more double jumps?
actually the roids enable him to do a triple jump now… ’tis quite a sight.
Can’t wait to see that, any word on quadruple jumps?
The Padres have a complete infield now.
They are thin in the outfield
Padres lineup now looks like this
1B – Cronenworth
2B – Kim
SS – Bogaerts
3B – Machado
LF – Tatis (starting 4/20)
CF – Grisham
RF – Soto
C – Nola/Campy
The only position to fill is DH and Campy and a number of other payers on that roster can rotate through DH.
Padres need starting pitching and positional depth now. Payroll for CBT purposes is around $254 million.
They switched him to 420?
The playoff games counted on his suspension
VegasSDfan said the padres are thin in the outfield.
Soto-Grisham-Tatis
Thin?
The best fielding CF in baseball sandwiched between the two best players under 25 and top 8 at any age in MLB.
If that’s thin I’d love to know what’s thick!
No, Tatis has full no trade, and is open to playing left field. Kim to second, Jake to first
Kim to trade. He can’t play 2B
Literally played 2nd in 2021 but sure…he can’t play there.
Lol boo this child!
Yeah and Wil Myers played 3rd base in 2018 and CF several times the past few years. What’s your point?
Prsr I’m like twice your age but…
Kim to utility, if anyone gets traded it’s Cronz?
I’m not trading Cronenworth unless it’s for prime Mike Trout already signed to a 10-year extension. But that’s just me.
Since his bat only really plays at shortstop and since his fielding definitely hasn’t necessitated a move off the position for him.
Dude 2b are usually the lightest hitting position players. You are really trying hard to sound intelligent. You make zero sense
Shortstop is further to the right on the defensive spectrum than second base my guy. And the Padres would objectively win more games with Kim at shortstop than with Kim at 2nd base and an inferior defender who hits better at shortstop.
Lol shut up douchebag
WoW! And just when I thought you couldn’t sink any lower. Exactly HOW big of a POS do you have to be to use “on the spectrum” as an insult in 2022? Mods, this guy needs to be banned.
Tryna cancel my bro Tsss I guess I could just start another screen name like you?? Provocative the comment was. Maybe not the best choice of words. Forgive me?
Damn dude. Thank you for using my 9 year old sons condition as a pejorative to poorly attempt to win an argument on the internet. You need to reflect on your choice of words and choice of how you view life. Absolutely classless.
Same could be said of Croneneworth, bat doesn’t play at first, plus he’s perhaps a better 2b than anyone else on the team including a Kim adaptation. I’m guessing they sign a 1b or work a trade
Yeah I don’t like Crone at 1B either
Though I think they both are likely not to be traded given the bargain both are through 25, which complicates the reasoning (to my small mind) in the Bogaerts acquisition. I admit – didn’t see this one happening.
They do! As long as the team has a track record of spending money on good players. Farhan forgot that part of the equation with Judge.
Given his BS…I’m with you that they want him out.
Xander at SS in 2023. Tatis in the OF. Machado may leave after 2023, so Xander can shift maybe to 3B in 2024 and Tatis back to SS.
Kim is a much better defensive player. I would think they would move him back to SS if Machado leaves. I seriously doubt Machado will leave.
IF Machado doesn’t leave, it’s unclear to me what the Pads are thinking now. I’m not sure I like Tatis committed fully to OF at this point, he’s error-prone with throws but still a dynamic IF presence. The team needs to add an OF? I definitely don’t like a plan that puts Kim at 2B and Cronz at 1B regularly. Both are out of position and not where their value is optimal. The team lacked slug last year and Cronz to 1B won’t improve that, even with adding Tatis (who fills HR gap from losing Bell/Drury/Profar).
Seems if they want to improve slug then they must add DH/1B power bats. Kim might end up seeing a lot of utility usage as a result. For this reason, I didn’t expect them to actually add a high-profile SS, I like Bogaerts as a nice hitter but I’m surprised by this signing from standpoint of position fit…
Tatis has said he is willing to play OF. This signing was not happening without that assurance.
Preller said he was still looking to trade for a 1B/DH to upgrade the squad. Who do you think is available in trade that would be an upgrade?
Take a look at the SLG% of the players that I listed. That team is 3rd in MLB in SLG% if you include Tatis career numbers. Home runs are not the be all, end all, especially with a deadened ball and the extreme shift being eliminated. OPS becomes the be all, end all. The Padres team as currently constituted excels in that.
Wouldn’t you when your ask was probably closer to half of that??? $280M for XB? Oh my god this is hilarious. I thought Cohen acted like a kid playing MLB the Show when he got spurned last year but he at least signed three guys to short term deals. This reeks of desperation. I thought Tuner’s 11 year would age poorly. I’m here to admit I should have withheld judgement
Gotta throw in a extra 40 million if you’re a “Rockstar gm” like AJ preller
Ayo for yayo
I know you wish your team would spend like this, but don’t be jealous. What this reaks of is domination.
6 players that had a 4+ WAR last season. Every position over league average WAR.
The back of the starting rotation is weak with Martinez and a question mark, but the 1st 3 matches up favorably with nearly any team in the league.
The bullpen is solid. If Pomeranz returns healthy it is one of the top pens in the league.
Padres are knocking it out of the park.
Bro. I’m a Mets fan. You don’t know what spending is. And they have massive payroll flexibility in two years to steal Soto away. Lol. Not jealous. Not close.
Yes I know, we lost a wild card to you. If that excites you, that’s why you are a Padres fan
Obviously you are. Padres are showing that the big market Mets are really not spending all that much comparatively.
Padres got much better already this offseason and its not over yet.
And who was it that knocked the Mets out AT HOME in 2022?
OOOO, that’s gotta sting.
Not at all bro. Short term contracts.
Nothing stings about a wild card loss. Nothing. Nothing is exciting about a wild card win. Nothing. Grow up pal.
Lie much? Losing hurts. Especially after the Mets collapse that put them in the WC instead of being the Division winner.
Im an adult. I dont cry over my entertainment. It should hutr the players but if you cry over a loss in the wild card you need therapy. Love the game. Love seeing my team make business prudent decisions to get better. Verlander for two years is low risk with potential high reward. My team is now run by a terrific owner that understands business and will restock every year. I know I will be entertained every single season he is in charge. That is plenty enough for me. Being a perennial contender is better than a short window of chaos every single time.
Why do you comment as Pads Fans and also as BaseballisLife?
Impossible
I bet San Diego is going to be sold to new owners.
Lol, based on what? That just sounds like trash talk coming from a guy who’s team got knocked out in the first round
As someone rooting for the Padres over the Dodgers & Giants, it is a fair question. The Padres have made veteran moves in the past to compete when necessary. Gossage & Garvey in ’84. Kevin Brown, Greg Vaughn, Ryan Klesko, bringing back Caminiti in the late 90s which resulted in their 1998 NL Pennant. But throwing around multiple contracts totaling a billion dollars for two players in two days is a bit suspicious. It feels very Jeffery Loria resigning Stanton and making lots of moves going into getting the All-Star Game in Miami. Meanwhile behind the scenes he was doing everything he could to unload the team at top-dollar so he didn’t have to pay those salaries. Look at Arte Moreno now. Spent all that money, isn’t a couple of years into Trout & Rendon’s deal and now is trying to sell, sell, sell. Huizenga did it in mid 90s with the Marlins. Soon as he got the WS trophy in 1997, unloaded everything.
Curveball1984;
Good post!
Time will tell.
For sure the owner is crazier than Preller. He has something going on.
Seidler isn’t any of those guys. He’s a baseball guy from the O’Malley family. He also made his money doing honest investing, and is still, making money. Baseball is his hobby, and also, the family business.
OldSaltUSNR;
Oh.
Padres signed one guy. It doesn’t matter how much they offered to guys they didn’t sign, only the one they did.
I guess when people get old, bidding in the new economy feels overwhelming.
I remember getting the 2 bits payment theory from an old lady after yard work all day as a kid.
They bid on twp top of the market guys in free agency. They lost one and they got one.
Hold up guys lets await on official sources not Heyman
Heyman was actually second to report it. Passan was first
Pretty sure Heyman was first but I wouldnt be surprised. hes usually always last
And when he tries to be first we get Arson Judge.
Jeff “Muckraker” Passan is just as bad as Heyman.
Wow
Padres are going all in. Be interested to see how the Dodgers respond and if they can keep Machado and soto.
Let’s be honest, the Dodgers will probably be a third place team for the foreseeable future.
LOL
LMAO
LMFAO!
Padres have been all in for years.
Dodgers are going to stay under the luxury tax and reset. They still are a very talented team.
Otani 2024:)
The Dodgers have most of their team leaving in free agency? Never been a fan of the Draft Dodgers
That momentum stopped in Boston.
Crazy the Padres keep adding shortstops.
If i were wagering a guess right now i would say the likely Padres alignment would be:
C Austin Nola
1B Jake Cronenworth
2B Ha-Seong Kim
3B Manny Machado
SS Xander Bogaerts
LF Fernando Tatis Jr.
CF Trent Grisham
RF Juan Soto
DH ???
It would appear a DH bat may still be on Preller’s shopping list. I am sad to see Bogaerts leave but an 11 year deal is absolutely insane
Rsox;
Seems to be too good to be true, doesn’t it?
Jd Martinez?
That’s a great fielding infield. With the shift going away, that type of coverage will be great to have.
Soto is playing LF Tatis RF
Unless Preller surprises and goes out and gets a true DH like JD Martinez, the DH spot would be whichever catcher is not starting, Nola or Campy.
Dodgers are said to be in on JD knowing he wont require a massive commitment to sign. Justin Turner could make sense for the Padres strictly as a DH and Michael Conforto is still out there and could probably be had on a one year “prove it” contract
I’d be surprised if Preller doesn’t go out and get a DH/1B bat
Tatis to left, Kim to second, Jake to first
Preller said tonight he’s working on a trade for a 1B too, but trades are tougher to put together..
Sign Senga and Vazquez. Trade Nola and ??? for a 1B?
Typically the vast majority of trades don’t start until after the Winter Meetings .
Why would anyone want Nola? What kind of 1Bman could he get us?
Abreu
I heard Arraez
Bobby Dalbec probably
I would like to acquire Arraez for 1B, Henry.. That works for me. He’s a tough out. But the cost would likely include Merrill I would imagine.
Padres would be giving up a lot to get Arraez. Probably have to include Cronenworth or Kim to get him.
Wouldn’t Arraez for Cronenworth just be a lateral move?
No. Kim. At. Second. Ever!
Perhaps Preller is looking to offload a big contract in trade for Ohtani? Tatis and prospects for Ohtani? Even with a no trade clause, it could still be a possibility. Checks off DH and a starting pitcher….
Tatis on his own is worth more than Ohtani
Tatis is way less valuable than Ohtani coming off a roid suspension and a 300MM contract.
The pads would never trade him now because it’s the absolute low point of his value.
One year rentals can only be worth so much my dude
Better than adding 1b or lf’s.
I wish the Yankees would do that instead of collecting corners and dhs.
Well that seals it. Simply no way Padres ownership isn’t raking in drug cartel cash.
Definitely Drug Cartel or Sex Traffic in TJ LOL
Your PPP dollars at work!
Holy moly
Preller is a mad man
Hi boss in a generous man
Bogaerts reportedly turned down a $375 Million offer from the Padres.
Wait… hold up.
Going by what they offered Judge and what they paid Bogaerts, the Padres got another $120 million to spend.
Judge is insane, has he been to San Diego? For 400 million he could live an amazing life
There’s a lot more prestige being remembered as a legend with the Yankees.
So for 360 million his life won’t be very good?
Anywhere in the world with $400 Mil, you, your kids , your grandkids, greatgrand kids, great-great grand……
Could still go after Senga.
May as well go 6 years at $20M for Corey Kluber. It’s about on par with this deal
This is a lot of money that is WAY too much money for X, great player but 11 freaking years?
No way that ages well imo
The years keep the AAV down. They don’t expect him to be playing well when he’s 41. I’m not shocked at the deal itself, I’m just shocked the Padres made it…they didn’t really need a SS.
SS are usually the most versatile athletes. Now the entire infield will be made of them
Hadn’t thought about that. Now every infield position and LF will be covered by a guy that started as a SS.
Hey, they were giving someone 11 years and $400MM. XB said yes after the other two said, no. XB said he’d take $280MM though……….according to Heyman.
End of an Era. Thanks for everything Xman, good luck in San Diego
Padres paying full price for those inflated Fenway stats. Betting on him play a strong ss for many years as well.
Whatever, not like he can’t hit in other ballparks too
Can’t hit 280 million worth.
They don’t expect 7 good years. The 11 years is just to lower the AAV. If he’s good for 5-6 years that surplus value makes it all worth it. Still a risk obviously.
He needs to be better than good to justify that contract though even for 5-6 years which could be asking a lot.
Petco is not cavernous in LF. 334 down the line and 357 in straightaway LF.
RF is 322 to the corner, that little bump out, and 382 to straightaway RF.
SANTA MARIA
Wow! Interesting to see how the infield lines up now.
It seems like the Padres are spending money just to spend money. What the hell do they do with Fernando Tatis, Jr.?
Maybe they move Tatis to the outfield this year, and they can slide either Tatis or Bogaerts to third if Machado opts out?
Tatis plays well in the outfield, he isn’t very good at short
To be fair the only thing Tatis seems to be really good at is self-inflicted injuries and punishment
Bingo
This is a confusingly huge deal.
Google inflatiron and then ask your mom how much her bills have gone up.
LFGSD
Padres going to have all short stops on the field pretty soon
Someone was going to take the Padres money. They’ve been throwing it around like it’s scalding hot. Seems a bit desperate. Not sure where Bogaerts will play and who they will trade.
Desperate is what cheap teams say.
“Desperate is what cheap teams say” is what people with no rizz say.
LOLZ I found out what rizz means and I’m not sure what my ability to bang chicks has to do w baseball. But contrary to belief I put the Rizz in your mouth
Just out of curiosity do you still think that trading Stammen at the 2017 trade deadline would have prevented the Padres from bringing him back after 2017? Or would have negatively affected what teams were willing to offer Preller for his future trade chips?
Not that I’m doubting this, but are we really trusting Heyman? Come on.
Considering he wasn’t even first, yes.
This is a zesty pickup for the Padres.
Do you think they expect Manny to opt out after next year?
Nah they’ll pay him 40 mil a year next ha
This, girl is on fireeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Good chance. This contract only makes him want to more.
I mean looking at what these other dudes are getting, most of whom are about the same age as Manny, opting out seems like a no brainer if he is healthy and productive in 2023.
They are all getting less than Manny’s $30mil per.. soooo? 5/150 opt in still > AAV than Turner..Arenado and Xander .. not an easy opt out.. and if he wants more years I am sure his best Peter Siedler will add the 3 or 4 yrs necessary to keep him in San Diego
Machado already demonstrated a preference for term/total guarantee over AAV the first time he was a free agent and he has more to gain from a longer term contract at 31 than he did at 26.
Had a feeling that he’d wind up there. Always felt that he was very underrated. Boston fans are going to miss him and I think Padres fans will be very pleased with their new guy. That infield is going to be scary good.
Another miss for the Red Sox. What a shame
It sucks, but that is an incredibly dumb contract for Xander. Like, completely irrational. I don’t like that he’s gone, but knowing that THAT’S what he left for, I really can’t get angry about it
It’s an overpay no doubt, but the Red Sox had time to work out a new deal with Xander while he was still with them. It’s a failure on the Red Sox part for allowing him to hit the open market
Ronk325;
Please…..
Scott Boras wasn’t going to allow an upper tier client to work out a contract before he hit free agency and had competing bids.
Ronk – you’re right and Samuel is wrong.
He forgets that Bogey overrode boras on the last contract, told him what he wanted, and what to do. The only concession Bogey made to boras was to let him negotiate in the opt out.
I wonder if bloom hadn’t come to town if he would’ve used it? At the time Bogey didn’t even want the opt out, just went for the ride.
Man has bloom screwed up this team.
They dodged a bullet on this one.
A part of me wants to be mad about this but I can’t. 11 years is insane. I don’t blame Xander for taking and it and I sure as hell don’t blame sox for not offering it.
BREAKING: Money doesn’t matter in San Diego
Only thing breaking is the bank, and maybe the Red Sox hearts
SD is alright by me: we lived in Oceanside for a couple years when I was a kid. Great memories at Seaus restaurant on football Sundays. Kevin Brown, Hoffman in the series. Those were great teams with Boch
Breaking… SD got a new credit line from Vito “fingers” Guido. Got a sweetheart deal at 30% interest.
Nor does consistent winning, apparently
Padres have made it to the NLDS or beyond 2 of the last 3 seasons. How many times have the Mets made it?
Wow! What success!!!! I mean they played a few extra games a few times ever in franchise history. What a joke you are. Success is winning routinely. They are light years behind the Dodgers. Finished nearly 20 games back last year. Is that success to you? You are pathetic if that is your used of successful. A few wild card games and a couple dismissals in round two. You must be the next Steven Jobs with that vision. I’m bored with you. Check the other comments. Seems I’m the one in the majority. Don’t get upset when you read this after school today.
The Padres did beat the Dodgers in the playoffs? I wasn’t imagining that was I? Right after they beat the Mets I believe.
Since it seems that you are a Mets fan I have a question. Do the Mets win in the playoffs routinely?
Because I only see the one loss in the WC to the Padres last season while the Padres were making it to the NLDS in 2020 and NLCS in 2022. Which means the Padres actually had to win some games in the playoffs unlike the Mets.
Wtf are the Padres doing? Feels like they are lacking strategy. Will spend big money on practically anyone.
Tatis going to the outfield?
Red Sox fans here…I’ve been saying money is not the issue he wanted years instead. The sox were ready to pony up the money but on a 4 or 5 yr deal. Best of luck as a Padre & thank you for your service.
They better move Devers before the same thing happens.
Should’ve moved Devers 2 offseasons ago. Bloom had no intention of fielding a competitive team, and two years of control that would’ve brought a massive haul of elite mlb ready prospects was wasted
The Friars got that Vatican money
“Batting second and playing Center Field for your San Diego Padres….. Carlos Correa!”
Sweet haircut and tan, Craven. I barely recognized ya
L O L
Padres the Yankees of the west coast!
I now have the feeling the Sox are going to land Correa
Probably not. The SS market is nuts and he’s now going to want similar money.
Nope, Giants or Cubs. The real winner with this ridiculous Bogarts contract is gonna be Swanson.
Correa to the Giants and Swanson to the Cubs.
Both Correa and Swanson to Pads, DH and 1b primarily, but first they need to pick up Senga and Rodon
I guess if you have that many positions tied up long term you don’t have to worry about draft picks for a while.
Please God no.
I get it. You know Bloom is completely illogical and you are banking on that with your comment.
With Mayer a year or three away Bloom needs him to showcase how great his drafting is. I don’t see anything but a temp SS in Story..
Also, Bloom would rather get six below average guys for the money he would spend on Correa!!
Pulled – Correa is a bad move for many reasons, and, Swanson will take a massive overpay if he desperately turns there.
No, I see some weird patchwork coming. Ideally you put someone like Iggy there and preserve story’s injury prone form and arm from having to be a SS. At least at 2B he was a decent fit last season. You don’t want ANOTHER 2b hole, and, we don’t want to watch more bloom reclamation stink up the joint.
Huge overpay. Especially considering they already have a really good shortstop at a good price, who’s keeping out another really good shortstop by the name of Tatis. There’s lots of ways to spend $280mil, and this is one of the worst ones.
I have a feeling a trade is coming. I mean I dig spending the cash for the flash but come on…this is getting wild. Who would take Tatis, if he is the one traded?
@Hired. Angels
I heard that at the trade deadline. But would new owners really want to empty the cupboard for Tatis?
Everyone
Fernando has full no-trade protection up through 2028. After that he can block 13 teams annually. If he doesn’t want to leave SD he’s not getting traded.
Thanks, who are you?
My assumption is that the Padres are going for the Dodgers model where you need lots of depth and positional flexibility. Cronenworth, Tatis, and Kim getting moved around, at the very least they have competent depth in case one is injured.
Eguy Rosario probably gets blocked super hard by this.
This is not the Dodgers model. Dodgers use their farm system to build a core and use their farm to trade for a position of need. When they can’t trade for a position of need they use short term term big contracts.
Or in few cases pay for high character guys that you can build on (Mookie & Freeman).
You missed the point. It doesn’t matter how you get to that level of positional flexibility, just that you get there.
Last season, of the top 13 in PA, only Lux, Bellinger and Smith were home grown among position players for the Dodgers. Freeman, both Turners, Muncy, Betts, Taylor, Barnes, Alberto, and Gallo all came from outside the organization.
The Dodgers don’t give 11 year deals.
That’s weird. Betts has a twelve year contract.
12 is not 11. So I’m technically right. Haha.
Point is, the Dodgers, like the Mets, tend to give short-term deals outside of their big piece (Betts, Lindor). The Padres are giving big deals to everyone, and already have a lot of money on the books for the next 4-5 years.
They aren’t even over the luxury tax yet.
As a general rule you are correct. It’s why Mookie Betts is in RF for the Dodgers and not Bryce Harper
Bill James talked decades ago about building with guys up the middle who can move to the corners instead of corner guys who simply play themselves off the diamond completely as their skills deteriorate.
This is where the Yankees have been such complete failures under Cashman and why they can’t win until he leaves.
emac22;
Bill James talked about that decades ago? Wow!
Branch Rickey believed in that over a century ago.
I don’t care for the Yankees or Mr. Cashman; but if your haven’t noticed that’s exactly what he’s been doing since he finally fired Rothschild and brought in an up-to-date pitching coach 3 years
ago.
Wowza. I didn’t see this one coming.
Woah! It’s getting expensive out there
What is happening this off-season?
They owners got their new CBA and the big new media contracts are about to kick in.
Investing in your business shouldn’t be a strange concept and overpaying for the cherry on top is the cost of doing business right.
Correa getting 341.1 million lol
With his perceived negative marketability, 2 teams already filling their needs, dodgers rulling him out, and other teams already spending a lot he could be a “bargain”. *Not at 341.1 million.
If Giants are bidding against themselves as can’t picture another team that would pay too much over $300 mil. Perhaps Twins, but they would be dumb to pay what they can’t afford.
Twins already made a 10 year offer over $300 million and it was not enough. Doubt Correa does that unless he has a higher offer in hand.
Padres have proven that teams like the Twins that are in a bigger market can afford to spend more.
Yeah probably so, but it’s gotta be over 300 million easy
Cubs better sign Correa or Swanson
This basically guarantees Tatis to the outfield, and could very much be insurance for if Machado opts out at the end of this year. Becomes X to 3B with Kim staying at SS afterwards. He could be used at 2B this year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Cronenworth ends up being moved in a deal now that he’s getting squeezed out. Using him at 1B simply isn’t a good use of resources, even with the shift getting banned. You’re wasting a lot of his value by putting him there. This is quite unexpected, but they needed someone who could rake and X fits the bill, wherever he ends up playing.
A .275 hitter w 25 bombs and elite D at 1B…I’ll take it.
But who knows he could be on the move for a sluggers. Can never assume anything w Preller amirite
This guarantees Jackson Merrill gets traded
Why? He’s years away and Preller obviously LOVES middle infielders
Not 11 years away
No but Kim isnt either face palm
Huh? Preller just traded a top 10 prospect MI?
Padres2019ha got no rizz
What’s rizz? I’m not hip to 12 yr old lingo
Something you don’t have
Gargle
My
Rizz
Don’t
Play
For
That
Team
I get the Machado opt out thing, but he is a cancer not sure how much higher he will get and from who besides Padres.
According to WHO is Machado a cancer? Certainly not anyone who collects a paycheck from Peter Seidler.
We stopped listening to the World Health Organization back in 2020. Come on man, keep up.
Most of us decided to stay on Earth.
Machado is cancer to the Dodgers. Kicks their ass. Didn’t perform when he was traded to them.
Ergo, the Dodger fan considers him to be a cancer to every team in the MLB..
Same thing for those ragging on Tatis. If AJ Preller put Tatis on the market, the 15 or so teams who could afford him would all be burning up his phone lines. (Half of the rest would be overspending to try and get him.).
On point, I don’t know if Machado opts out, either. If the Marlins actually look like they’re ready to make a move, and were willing to pay his price (assuming he could determine that), I’d say it’s likely he’d opt out to finish his career at home in Miami. He loves San Diego, but Miami will always be home.
In any case, Preller just stacked the deck in case he can’t resign Soto (or he knows internally, that Soto will never agree to an extension), or Machado opts out. That’s the DOWN side. The up side is that he finds a way to keep them all, maybe most of the stars perform, and the Padres are perpetually competitive, the next half dozen years or so.
How do they pay for it? News flash: Seidler has put up the stake money, and is reinvesting every cent of an increasingly larger Padre’s purse. Dodger fans ought to recognize that formula. O’Malley, Seidler’s uncle, did much the same thing to build the Dodgers. Build a winning baseball team, build a winning brand, reap huge, long term rewards.
2.7 WAR in 66 games as a Dodger. That’s a 6.6 WAR pace extrapolated over a full season. Manny performed awesomely as a Dodger. And they had to play a game 163 to take the division title even WITH his contributions.
I agree thelegendaryharambe. I was citing the attitude I get from most Dodger fans, about Manny. The rap is that Machado was a slouch in L.A., then took a huge contract with the Dodgers rivals. Ergo, he’s a bum to most of them.
Manny is one of the least appreciated, flat out studs, stars, in the majors. He got a bad rap on a couple of plays back in Baltimore, when he was (a) arguably still young, and (b) the question of whether what he did was intentional, is still valid. Just like those hating on Tatis, Jr.. It’s got more with their style, and what they can do to the opposition, than about these players themselves.
That said, I’m old-school baseball. I wasn’t crazy about the Latin guys machismo style in the dugout, the dancing and open displays, when the Pads were doing it. I understood it, but I didn’t agree with it. I also don’t hate them for it, the way some of these guys commenting in here, apparently do.
Streaking-He’s been beloved since joining the Padres. Seems to have really grown up.
tippin;
He grew up because he looked at Tatis and saw thjat was what he was becoming…..going backwards.
How is Crone “getting squeezed out?”
Cheese-Completely agree. Preller said earlier tonight that he’s looking at trading for a 1B..but trades are harder to put together. I could totally see a deal involving Cronenworth, Merrill, etc for a 1B. They still need a DH too..which makes me wonder if a 1 or two year deal for JD Martinez would be a fit. Personally, I’d be happy with bringing back Drury, and moving him around..but mainly having him DH though. We’ll see..
Trades usually don’t start to happen until the Winter Meeting is over and most of the big FA are off the board.
I think the bigger question is who the heck do they have that they can trade for a 1B and why do it at all.
They could bring back Myers!
Probably be very cheap. Would he cost less than JD Martinez or the guy they traded for last deadline, Drury?
The other question is what do they do with Kim in that case? That guy is elite on defense. Supersub?
Haha acting like you don’t know the Padres traded for Drury and referring to Kim as “that guy” like you aren’t “Pads Fans” posting from a burner account.
You.would.know.Ryan.
Yeah everyone knows Pads Fans, BaseballisLife and websoulsurfer are the same guy. Probably even you know it. And that’s saying something.
Only.people.with.no.rizz.talk.like.this.
Wow what a Bad Move !
Is prellers next move trading for Devers to man 1sr?
Trades for Devers and plugs him in at batboy.
Epic!
Haven’t seen this sort of thing since the Yankees traded for Stanton and that team was stacked!
dougdeb
Funny Padres still trying to buy a pennant. Didn’t you learn anything with Hosmer?
Yes don’t sign light hitting 1B to long contracts. But that misfire doesn’t seem to be hindering them
That awkward moment when you defended the Hosmer signing when it happened.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/padres-to-sign-eric-hosmer.html
Liking your own comment again from your other screen name…pathetic
I only have one screen name. This one. It is enough. And everyone saw you defending the Hosmer signing as well as your other bad takes. You just have to live with that.
No I don’t think anyone cares or has time other than you to scroll for an hour to find a 4 year old articles.
Answer me this
How many screen names have you had? I’ll bet you don’t answer
If you have even a kindergarten level understanding of Google it takes 10 seconds to find. But judging by the rest of your comments idk why I expected that from you.
LOLZ GOOGLE MY ARS
Hosmer signing showed the rest of the baseball world we were willing to pay or overpay for players unlike the past. Guess it doesn’t matter now cuz look, where we are chump.
The Padres would objectively be looking better for the future, both short and long-term, if they never signed Hosmer. “Showing the rest of the baseball world we are willing to overpay” means nothing.
Answer the question about your w teen names or never reply again. This will not end well for you
Address your Wil Myers for Noah Syndergaard trade proposals and claim that the Padres HAVE to trade for good players first to be able to sign them later on. This will not end well for you.
You didn’t learn the lesson the Red Sox fans learned?
Just give up and start complaining. It’s much cheaper.
Are you seriously trying to conflate the Hosmer signing with Bogaerts? Your jealousy is showing.
LOL. Appears I have to eat crow. I said I assume less than 11 years and $300 million to anyone other than the Padres. Congrats Preller. You made Dombrowski look like a skilled negotiator. Holy cow this is amazingly stupid. The last thing they needed was to triple down on cutting the farm and sign another lengthy deal but it’s a position of strength for them as as. Wow. I wonder why they never won a title.
Phillies fans – I formally apologize for calling the Turner and Walker deals bad.
Judge I understand if you trade Soto to restock. A SS? For 11 years? And $280 million. Not named Correa? Or Turner? I’m flabbergasted. Oh boy. Thank you. Had a rough day with work a surgery recovery and needed this laugh.
Brain surgery it appears. Get well soon!
So clever. Sinus surgery. If you think 11 years for the fourth (at best) option at SS when you literally have no farm and two guys making $300m is good then I have to question which of us is suffering from brain issues. Bless your heart Padres fan! Nothing like loving a Brown and yella team that never, ever wins
Xander is better than Swanson. 3rd best option IMO.
Fair enough debate. Close enough I can’t argue. But $280 over 11? Ugh – Lee
What’s your point?
They should have given up because prices got to high to improve the team?
If the farm is weak and you didn’t win the world series how in the world do you council them not to pay what it takes to get the best player they can get???
Even worse, how do you ignore the needs of a playoff team because you fear the 2030 payroll situation?
Try again. They should go for it this year with subtle enhancements and they trade to restock either way. Not lock into 11 years of running the same team on out there expecting that it somehow makes them a sustainable winner. Look all around the league – teams that succeed so not hand out multiple long term deals at huge dollars. The Braves May finally be the exception to that rule because they locked up 21-24 year olds as opposed to paying a good, not amazing, short stop nearly $300 million until age 42. This isn’t hard. You will never resign Soto so get what you can back in return.
my wife says I snore too
I would offer 11 years to someone like Soto. Not a 30 year old player who plays a speed position.
Guys be signing Bobby Bonilla contracts and nothing’s even deferred. Crazy!
Soto will be 25 when he becomes a FA. He will be looking for 12-14 years at $35+ AAV if he continues to produce at 140 or better OPS+. Could be a $500 million contract the way things are going.
That’s not even relevant.
The question is if you would spend what thru spent to improve the team or give up because of your fear for the 2030’s.
Would you really have stood pat if that was the option?
100 hundred percent I would have stood pat last year and not turned my team from a top 5 farm system to a bottom five for Soto, Drury, Hader and Bell. It was clearly a win now but the team is as 15 games behind the Dodger, Braves and Mets at the time. The then played poorly for a month, followed by average for another. Getting a little hot in the playoffs is cool. The Phillies got hotter and were arguably no where near as talented. Baseball is a very hard sport to win a title due to hit streaks of this nature. But they lost. It didn’t work. It’s fine, because Bell and Drury gone is no huge issue. Still a good team. Apparently Preller thought a championship caliber team. Adding Bogaerts does not move the needle very much for this team. 11 year of adding him is being laughed at by hundreds of us. Not sure what you see that makes you like it that all of us are missing but hey, I don’t have to walk in your shoes. You lost everything in your inventory to try to win it all last year or this. Either outcome is fine as long as you prepare for 2024. You do that best by swallowing your pride and trading your best chip because otherwise it will take 5-10 years to build back that farm.
Try watching analysts some time. Many said this same logic last year immediately following the trade. Best way to maximize it is realize he will hit the open market so go all in short term and then recoup what you can
Why would they trade Soto not even 6 months after acquiring him? They aren’t getting back half of what they gave up for him if they trade him now!
He is not resigning there. Zero chance. They destroyed a #1 farm system. The most important part of running a successful business is realizing a bad decision and fixing it. I would have advised running back a talented but flawed team this year and hope to catch lightening in a bottle like the Phil’s did this year and to a lesser extent the Braves the year before and then trade in the off-season between 23 and 24 to put something of value in the farm. If they don’t trade the only tradeable contract on their team they need 5-6 years of bullseye drafts to get back into contention all while paying and aging Machado Xander and a wild card Tatis $100M per year or so.
Who besides you says he isn’t re-signing with the Padres? And why does it matter? He wasn’t traded for with signing him in mind. He was traded for because he is controlled through 2024 with or without an extension and the Padres are trying to win a title in those years. And on top of all that trading Soto just opens up another hole on the diamond. If trading for Soto wasn’t a bad decision then it’s not a bad decision now.
Like everyone. Literally every single person with a brain. He will go to free agency. The Padres now have three $300m (close enough) contracts on the books. The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees will have massive payroll flexibility when he hits FA status. They is absolutely zero chance. I will bet anything you like on that right now. Zero. No way. Unless he sucks….. then I take it all back. But there is almost zero chance he will suck long term. So yea, everyone can see simply that big market clubs have positioned quite well to land guys like Ohtani and Soto rather than 11 years of Bogaerts
You ignored the second half of my question. Why does it matter if Soto extends or not? They control him through 2024 (which is basically the rest of their window) even with no extension and an extension never seemed all that bloody likely in the first place so if that was a problem for the Padres he never would have been traded for in the first place.
It doesn’t matter. That’s why I ignored it because it had no substance. The team killed its farm and now committed $80M per year to three players for the next 11. The only chance to stay relevant in five years (likely less) is to restock the farm or pay $400M to field a team. Soto is out now because it’s just not realistic to land a fourth contract of that size without annual penalties and no real way to duck back under without skimping everywhere else. As a Mets fan, this is the exact situation we have now but the difference is a true business man stepped in and committed short deals while maintaining a strengthening farm so they can rest and compete annually. If they don’t win this year or next and he leaves you gutted the future for absolutely nothing. Winning is hard. Ask the back to back 105 win plus Dodgers. Ask the 101 win Braves and Mets from last year. With the added wild card team the playoffs are a total crapshoot and the Padre window is severely narrowed without trading their best chip to restock. Just humble observations that I think hold some merit
You see, the real reason you ignored it is because it completely invalidates your argument. If what you’re saying were true it would have been true 5 months ago. Probably even moreso than it is today. And the Padres STILL sold their whole farm for Soto. They’re not going to trade him now for 40 cents on the dollar. They are pot committed to the current window and Soto is as big a piece of that window as any.
What the heck are you talking about? Fine I will play. It’s a a stupid trade to give up a top ten farm for a rental that was having an off year and has made clear he will test the market. It doesn’t matter to me if they trade him or not because I like to watch mediocre teams fail. However, my argument is quite sound. If you want to compete perennially you need a farm system or a series of short and smart contracts. The Padres went for it last year and it largely blew up in their face until they got “hot” in the playoffs only to fall short against an even more flawed team. Trading the level of talent they did to go for it should have always been a plan to go for it in 22 & 23 and trade him before 24. Preller is not a smart man. I doubt he trades him and his fans, like you, will celebrate chasing the Dodgers and then getting left out in the cold with three aging expensive players. To decide not to roll the team back out there and to triple down on super long contracts is foolhardy. Tatis broke both wrists riding a bike and cheated with PEDs. Cmon man. Was that really a good investment? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Any fool that thought getting Soto was anything more than a two year window was misguided.
Worst advice I’ve even seen.
Be embarrassed.
Preferring a farm system over a HOF player completely misses the fact that this is MLB and not MILB.
Preferring a sustainable winning formula over one year of a potential HOF player is the new definition of insanity. I hope you are not a business owner or a manager for one in any way. You fall more into the world needs ditch diggers too category
Again. I never said Soto would sign an extension nor care. The Padres are trying to win now and Soto has two more years of arb. Scott Boras can’t do anything about that. Whether or not trading all that prospect capital for him in the first place was a good idea is a whole nother debate. But I’ll tell you what’s not going to happen. The Padres are not going to flip him not even 6 months after trading for him when they would only get back like 40% of what they gave up to get him. That would be the definition of stupidity.
Have you seriously never traded in a used car? You get the best out of it, then you prefer a shiny new toy and you trade it in for less than you paid for it. If they want to be relevant in the future as well as now, they need to make a decision. Yesterday kind of put them in a corner, no? Nearly $100M committed payroll annually for the next 7 -10 years for three players – two that will age poorly and one that got pinched for PEDs abuse already after carelessly getting injured and absolutely NOTHING in the minors waiting to offset some of that burden. They can fix some of it by “going for it” this year and getting SOMETHING back for Soto after trading their entire future for him to watch him walk away. I get it. We disagree. IMy approach is a business first one – like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and (finally) the Mets under Cohen are doing. Smart short investments with a big add here and there when needed (Judge, Betts, Olsen, Lindor). You prefer spending every cent in your pocket and hoping that one lottery ticket hits. Those other teams can buy a new ticket every year because they didnt mortgage the future.
Padres are trying to go for it in 2024 too. They don’t have a “shiny new toy” that they like better than Soto and certainly none that will help them more in 2024 than he will. A championship will always always ALWAYS be worth more than “getting something” for a guy, even if the Padres do end up losing Soto for a measly draft pick 2 years from now. Teams lose good players to free agency all the time. Hell, this article is about the Red Sox losing Xander Bogaerts. Again, they did not acquire Soto to “flip” him. They acquired him to “use” him.
If the Padres cared about being relevant in the future they would not have traded for Soto in the first place. They want to win now. You don’t have to agree. You don’t have to like it. But you do have to understand.
No we do not disagree. You’re just wrong.
Cool story. I think time will show I’m not. The Dodgers kick their rear ends for fun every year. The model is proven already. The Braves let Freeman walk and re