With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.
Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:
Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):
After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.
That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):
After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.
When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.
J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):
While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.
After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.
Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):
The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.
What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.
Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):
After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.
Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.
Welp, since the Mets will be in rebuild mode you have to imagine these players wish their big contract year was last year. Perhaps the Padres will still have handouts this offseason.
I wound not doubt Cohen doubling down in the coming off season.
$700 million payroll & this time actually succeed in defeating the Nats for dead last!
Disagree. Your DH should be your best overall hitter – versus both sides of the mound. The Giants should try to improve here. Unless he is willing to be paid long term as 3/5 of a full time player who can’t play the field, the Giants should spend elsewhere.
Good to see Boston and Dodgers swapping bats are working out for both teams.
I think Cutch will test F.A. for a short time but stays with the Pirates.
Agree on all accounts YBC. I always believed absent a chronic back condition, JDM would rebound. As for Turner, I’m surprised and happy. I was upset in 2020 when he celebrated with others after being diagnosed with COVID. He does though seem like a leader and I’m hoping he renegotiated but stays in Boston. Finally, as for Cutch, that ovation he got when he first returned still resonates and he’s the perfect guy to lead that overall young team (Rich Hill aside).
Covid lmfao.
Looks like Scott Harris has entered the chat. Tigers have a gold glove DH in Maton
Soler’s option for 2024 will actually be $13m so long as he stays healthy.
Even at that price, the way Soler is hitting, he is without a doubt opting out…unless he really wants to play in Miami. But I’m sure he’s going to turn this season into a big multi-year deal.
I’d check those sources again, seems unlikely the Pirates drafted McCutchen in the first round of the 2011 draft considering he’d been with the big league squad since 2009.
Understood very little of this article. While all the analytics are great fun (?), I don’t know how many HR’s McCutcheon, Pederson and Turner have. I don’t know how many RBI any of them have. And why would the Giants raise any eyebrows by offering Pederson a $19.5m QO after a phenomenal 2022?
Because those stats don’t matter anymore for contracts. Which is the purpose of the article.
Saber stats have ruined the game for many of us. They don’t tell the full story as many intangibles are not included.
True…todays game is all about launch angle, hard hit %, etc……good example is the authors lauding of JD Martinez who already has eclipsed his home run total of last year which is great while striking out 1 out of every 3 at bats……that used to be called a rally killer in older days! He’s obviously selling out in a 1 year deal to the home run gods who don’t care any longer when someone hits .235 with 100+ K’s but hits 18-20 home runs…….how the game changes!
PS; he sounds more and more like a potential 2024 Yankee every day with those stats……just ask Stanton our $$$multi million dollar DH who can’t hit water if he fell out of a boat but oh man when he does connect…..hard hit % is out of this world…..yeh man!
Yeah, there are sabremetrics, and then there is the eye test. I had Soler, Pederson, and Turner all 3 on my fantasy team so far this year, and I moved on from all three because they’re feast or famine hitters. Not so much Turner, but the other two plus Joey Gallo. You have to be willing to slog through the Ofers and the off days to get to that 2 HR, 5 RBI game. I haven’t understood the praises for Pederson especially as being one of the best hitters on SF. The guy is a free swinger looking for homers – always has been.
Yes, those 2 homer 5 RBI games don’t exactly fit with what should be the culture of a “winning ball club’….just padding the stats…agree never have really seen Pederson for extended periods but he does seem like the a-typical modern ballplayer swinging for the HR while never concerned with keeping the line moving…..which is winning baseball.
Careful Rocky, possible future headline, “Stanton lands on DL after falling out of a boat”
Maybe there’s a difference between fantasy baseball and the MLB. Just a thought.
rocky7 – You don’t know much about JD Martinez. He struggled early in his career and found a hitting instructor who helped him with his swing. It had NOTHING to do with launch angle or any of the other BS you mentioned. JD flourished while his coach worked with him throughout the year in Boston.
Then in 2019 the LA Dodgers hired his instructor, and he left JD to take the job in LA. JD’s numbers slowly fell off. Now he’s back in LA with his trainer and his numbers are huge. Skill is great but properly used skill makes for the great ones.
JD with his trainer is far better than JT. JD without his trainer is comparable to JT. JT makes $10.85MM and JD makes $10MM this year. If JD stays with his trainer in LA he should make $25MM, the upper limit of the market for true DHs.
With his trainer, JD is as good or better than Devers because he hits for a higher average, comparable power and he doesn’t make errors in excess in the field. He’s a DH and understands that whereas Devers is clueless as to the extent of his lack of fielding skills. ANy edge Devers might have with his youth he loses due to how much he costs the team on defense. Making NO ERRORS is far better than 14 logged errors and 52 misplays that often don’t get recorded properly. $31MM for Devers was $6MM over the limit for DHs which is what Devers really is.
JD will never play outside of LA again unless LA simply drops him and that seems unlikely due to his 2023 numbers.
You type alot to be wrong all the time. Especially for a JD fan.
JD the fact is JD looked somewhat cooked last year. His oppo power which was his strength made him an elite hitter. He was able to let the ball travel deep and then punish the ball to right field. He was an elite hitter when he was able to do this. Last year his power to right faded enough so that his fly balls to right field were dying on the track instead of going out. It appears this year that he is selling out for more power. He is pulling the ball the more then ever he is selling out for the home run. His swing is on the long side thus his k percentage going up since he is no li her letting the ball travel deep.
JT, on the other end has a short compact stroke taylor made for Fenway. JT is older but due to the compact stroke and really good plate discipline he probably ages better then JD. It is true a few years ago JD was absolutely elite and he became that way by being able to go oppo with authority it’s nice that he is selling out for power but I expect he will be exposed very soon f he can’t get back to the elite oppo hitter he was before. It’s absolutely the key to JDM.
Maybe there’s a difference between fantasy baseball and the MLB.
===========================
There is, but the Schwarbers of the world are identical in both. A 3-30 followed by a 5-10 with three HRs.
Woman talking sports = know nothing jack-ass.
Wholly unsurprising take from you.
it’s mainly because he’s can’t handle the slightest amount of pushback or heavy doses of reality against his warped world view.
@Acel10 well the inflammatory comment appears to be gone now. So there’s that.
I’m glad something was done about it and I hope that MLBTR will do more than simply just remove them. He ruins any possibility for discussion or debate with his rants and hijacks the thread if they continue to go unchecked.
@kristen hey be nice to Aubrey Huff!
The Joc QO got heavily criticised in here. “Eyebrows raised” is an understatement.
Because he is a platoon DH player.
Not exclusively, but he is exceptional at that role. 149 wRc+
@avenger65 $19.5m for a 1.3 WAR 2022 season? after two replacement level seasons in 2020 and 2021?
–But you think RBI are essential numbers? Huh.
I am hoping Cutch returns year after year until his legs fall off… hopefully that is not the second half of this season. Some of the OF options have not exactly worked out and Cutch can still hang around on defense… after seeing some of the Pirates RF play this past week eeek…
After he retires 22 will be retired in Pittsburgh, while he is not a shoe in for the HoF he’s done more than enough to be in the conversation.
Still can’t understand why Atlanta let Jorge Soler walk. He was so happy in Atlanta. Not saying he is or isn’t now but he loved the atmosphere at Truist. Sad face.
Outfield was already crowded. Ozuna was already extended before they got Soler. Acuna wasn’t a good fit in CF so they had to move him to the corner when he returned from injury which made a spot for Harris in CF. Adam Duvall came off a great 2021 where he was the RBI leader. It was either Soler or Rosario and Rosario is $4 million cheaper annually.
I didn’t mind that they let Soler walk. He’s one of those guys that is an absolute terror in the box when he’s on, but he’s so streaky. He doesn’t give you much when he’s not locked in either.
Pederson was the player I wanted Atlanta to keep over Soler and Rosario.
@Drew Waters Bat Soler was merely a league average bat across 2020 and 2021 with dismal defense. Why would Atlanta want to bring him back?
Out of all these options in the off-season cleveland ended up with josh bell haha.
Full circle of baseball ! Have 10 breakout players in a season – you hit your quota for a decade ! Team had regression wrote all over em
Soler is so streaky, it seems. I swear, he’s either near the top of the HR leaders or he’s struggling to stay in the lineup and keep his batting average from dipping below .200.
I find it interesting all of these guys are mostly DH
That’s bc good players never hit free agency until they can’t field anymore
New rules are working out well for MLB. I tip my hat to em ! Well done
And all are modern day versions of Dave Kingman with the exception of Turner who can actually play 2 positions effectively. You only put the others in the field when you absolutely have to. The way the game is trending I wonder if some day we’ll see the league approving 3 or 4 DHs per team. The PA would be all in on that. This would extend the careers of the banjo hitters and all-or-nothing sluggers who can’t play any position.
solaris – I agree about Turner’s fielding skills. How many less errors (or mishandled plays the score keeper has been paid to not count) do you think Turner would have at 3B vs Devers?: Remember, Devers had 52 misplayed balls in 2022 and 14 counted for errors. Forget about how a paid score keeper would mark them, how many less base runners would you estimate with JT over Devers at 3B?
They must of paid the other teams scorers off big time since of the 14 errors that were called on Devers in 2022 9 were at home and only 5 on the road.
without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman.
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This is the second big mention for Chapman. The last time you had an article about him and his massive upcoming contract. He’s a nice player, but not a great one. He’s had a 3.5 in each of the past two seasons, and is 30 years old. As I mentioned last time, you were being deceived by his .489 BABIP. That’s reverted and his OPS over the past 53 games is .647.
I don’t get the hype about Chapman either. And mind you, if he doesn’t get a big market, my Marlins may end up being the team trying to sign him. If that happens, I hope they don’t overpay in AAV or years.
Chapman has overpaid mistake written all over him.
I see Chapman as a $110M/5 guy. MLB-R is treating him like he is going to get a massive contract. I just feels sketchy.
I’d even go 4/$88M for him. But yeah, this site is acting like he’ll be getting 7/$175+M.
Agreed. Pete Alonso by WAR and age isn’t the worst comp for Chapman when they both hit FA, and I wouldn’t offer Pete much more than 4/100m. Chapman’s OPS from 2021-2023 is only 112. His peak was all the way back in 2018-2019. He’s a nice player to have, but he’s going to be expensive–and you’re going to be buying his decline, possibly his collapse.
Dear goodness! Can someone in each of the Central divisions take ownership in each division!?!?!? They are ruining the trade deadline market because of so many bad teams still thinking they can win those divisions. If just one team in each division (especially in the AL Central) can take command of those divisions by just being several games over .500, that sends a few more teams into seller mode, which makes the market a better place for some real action instead of buyers being limited to just the A’s, Royals, Rockies and Nats because 4 losing teams in the Al Central and and 3 more losing teams in the NL Central feel they can win those divisions. If someone took command in those divisions, at least 4 more teams would go into seller mode.
We have an entire division of all losing records! Sheesh! You’ve got to be kidding me!
Lock up ‘long term’ a platoon DH having career years at 30-31 and still only worth 1-2 WAR?
Why?