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Mets Will Pursue External Candidates for Managerial Opening

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Once David Stearns was officially in place as the president of baseball operations for the Mets, it wasn’t long before he had to answer questions about the team’s managerial opening. After all, firing manager Buck Showalter was the executive’s first major decision in his new role.

During his introductory press conference, Stearns told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that he didn’t have anyone in mind just yet, and the team would “cast a wide net” in search of a new manager. In recent days, however, he has begun to narrow the field. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Mets will only look outside the organization to hire a replacement for Showalter. That takes candidates like bench coach Eric Chavez and third base coach Joey Cora out of the running. As Sammon notes, Carlos Beltrán is another name to come off the table. Beltrán, who briefly served as the Mets manager during the 2019-20 offseason, re-signed with the team as a special assistant to the GM earlier this year.

It’s not surprising that Stearns wants to hire from outside the organization. Other than Beltrán, there aren’t any obvious internal candidates, and what’s more, it’s quite common for a new executive to bring in a manager of his choosing.

The name most frequently mentioned in speculation thus far has been Brewers manager Craig Counsell, although the Mets cannot formally consider Counsell until his contract with Milwaukee expires at the end of October. Still, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Monday that the Mets have “a reasonable chance” to sign the long-time Brewers manager this offseason. It’s more than a reasonable fit; Counsell worked under Stearns in Milwaukee for seven years. What’s more, Heyman cites a source who claims Counsell is looking to be paid “what he believes is fair.” Either team could afford to pay Counsell the salary he’s looking for, but recent history suggests the Mets are far more willing to spend.

Other potential contenders include Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Brewers bench coach Pat Murphy, and Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski. Two years ago, Espada was a candidate for the job that eventually went to Showalter, and he has interviewed for numerous other managerial openings around baseball. Meanwhile, Murphy worked with Stearns in Milwaukee for seven seasons, and he interviewed for the Mets managerial position back in 2019. He could be a consolation prize of sorts if the Mets cannot tempt Counsell away from the Brewers. Finally, Budzinski doesn’t have as clear a connection to New York, but Scott Mitchell of TSN reports that he is in consideration for the job.

While Stearns previously claimed he was open to hiring a first-time manager, the fact that he’s limiting the search to external candidates might suggest he prefers someone with more experience. If that is true, several options will be available, including Counsell, former Giants and Phillies manager Gabe Kapler, and Astros manager Dusty Baker, whose contract expires at the end of the season. Ultimately, however, the Mets remain tight-lipped about any and all candidates they’re considering for the position.

Orioles Sign Nate Webb To Two-Year Minor League Deal

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The Orioles have inked right-hander Nate Webb to a two-year minor league contract, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The deal reportedly includes an invite to Spring Training.

A 34th-round pick by the Royals back in 2016, Webb last pitched competitively in 2022, struggling to a 9.99 ERA in 33 1/3 innings split primarily between the Double-A and Triple-A levels with a worrisome 15.2% walk rate against a strikeout rate of 21.9%. Webb fared better in the Arizona Fall League that offseason, striking out six across 5 2/3 scoreless innings of work.

Webb was non-tendered by the Royals in November but signed on with the Pirates on a minor league deal shortly thereafter. Unfortunately for Webb, his entire 2023 campaign was wiped out after he underwent Tommy John surgery during Spring Training. Prior to his difficult 2022 season and subsequent surgery, he made his full-season pro debut in 2021 and had a solid season with a 3.94 ERA in 59 1/3 innings of work between the Single-A and High-A levels. He sported strong peripherals that year, including a 37.7% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 8.9%.

Looking ahead, Webb will have the chance to prove his health with the Orioles this spring and headed into the season. When he’s healthy, the 26-year-old figures give the Orioles a depth option for their bullpen at the Triple-A level next season. Righties Joey Krehbiel and Mike Baumann and lefty Nick Vespi make up the club’s relief depth currently on the 40-man roster.

Front Office Notes: Marlins, Click, Braves

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The Marlins recently parted ways with GM Kim Ng in a somewhat shocking move, considering Miami just made the postseason in a full season for the first time since 2003. Today, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald discusses the concerns Marlins owner Bruce Sherman had regarding the club’s front office. Per Jackson, ownership’s concerns centered around the club’s player development and drafting apparatus, specifically on the position player side of things. Top position player draft picks for the Marlins under Ng like catcher Joe Mack, infielder Kahlil Watson, and infielder Jacob Berry have all struggled to this point in their professional careers, though Watson is no longer part of the organization after being dealt to Cleveland at the trade deadline this year.

Ultimately, those concerns ended up being the trigger for decisions that led to Ng’s departure from the Marlins, including his desire to install a president of baseball operations above her and his move to pick up the team’s half of a mutual option rather than offer her an extension. Per Jackson, Sherman’s goal in hiring a president of baseball operations above Ng was to have someone else lead a restructuring of the amateur scouting and player development departments of the front office in addition to having a hands-on role in those areas. Jackson adds that Miami’s next president of baseball operations will have to fill out senior-level positions in the front office in addition to restructuring the aforementioned areas; along with Ng’s departure as GM, Jackson adds that senior director of international operations Adrian Lorenzo is departing the organization while senior director of player personnel Billy Masse was never replaced after exiting last offseason.

More front office notes from around the game…

  • As the Red Sox continue their search for the club’s next head of baseball operations, former Astros GM James Click became the latest high-profile candidate to pull himself from consideration for the position today. Per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, Click talked to the Red Sox about the opportunity but has declined to pursue the organization’s top job, citing family considerations. In doing so, Click joins a number of other candidates who have to decline the spot at the head of Boston’s baseball operations department including former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, former Marlins president Michael Hill, and Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen. Click currently works in Toronto’s front office as vice president of baseball strategy.
  • Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, the Braves have officially promoted Ronit Shah to the role of scouting director. Shah was already running the club’s scouting department in 2023 after previously serving as assistant scouting director under Dana Brown, who departed the organization last offseason to take over as GM of the Astros. Atlanta’s scouting operation has seen great successes in recent years, including last year’s breakout performances by rookies Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II. The pair were drafted in the fourth and third rounds of the 2020 and 2019 drafts, respectively.

NL Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Dombrowski

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Back in May, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio discussed the club’s desire to secure state funding for renovations to American Family Field, the club’s stadium in Milwaukee which is publicly owned and leased to the Brewers. At the time Attanasio mentioned that public officials in the state had indicated that they hope to extend the club’s lease at the stadium, which currently runs through 2030, through at least 2050.

Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.

As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.

Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.

More from around the NL…

  • While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
  • Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.

The Opener: ALCS, NLCS, Braves Chat

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As the 2023 postseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. ALCS Game 3:

Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer is set to take the mound tonight for the first time since September 12, when he posted 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on 72 pitches. The Rangers will hope for a similar outcome tonight as the ALCS heads to Globe Life Field for Game 3 today, as manager Bruce Bochy has indicated that Scherzer’s “baseline” for tonight could be around 70 pitches as he makes his first competitive appearance in more than a month, taking the mound against Astros righty Cristian Javier. Scherzer sports a 3.77 ERA and 4.32 FIP in 27 starts this season, though those numbers (3.20 ERA and 3.41 FIP) are far more impressive in eight starts since joining the Rangers.

Javier, meanwhile, posted mediocre numbers during the regular season with a 4.56 ERA and matching 4.58 FIP. That being said, Javier is an accomplished postseason pitcher with a career 1.91 ERA in 37 2/3 innings of work, including 16 1/3 scoreless innings across three career postseason starts. The clubs have also indicated that changes to their starting lineups may be in the cards tonight, with Astros manager Dusty Baker suggesting a move down the lineup could be in play for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who’s marred in an 2-for-22 slump this offseason. Meanwhile, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays that, per Bochy, rookie outfielder Evan Carter could move up to the third spot in the lineup for this evening’s game. The rookie has torn the cover off the ball this postseason, with a .350/.536/.700 slash line in 28 trips to the plate.

2. NLCS Travel Day:

The Diamondbacks are heading back to Arizona licking their wounds today, as after sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers out of the playoffs en route to the ALCS the club was unable to recreate that magic against in Philadelphia. After losing 5-3 in Game 1 with ace right-hander Zac Gallen on the mound, the club turned to veteran Merrill Kelly and got an even more worrisome outcome, as the Phillies dominated in a 10-0 romp that sent them to Arizona with a 2-0 lead in seven-game set. Pending free agent Aaron Nola dominated the Diamondbacks over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, while Kyle Schwarber slugged two of the club’s three home runs on the evening. Philadelphia has yet to announce the club’s Game 3 starter for tomorrow, while the Diamondbacks will go with youngster Brandon Pfaadt as they try to avoid falling into an 0-3 hole in the NLCS.

3. Braves Live Chat:

The Braves installment of the 2023-24 edition of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series was published yesterday, as the club looks for answers following a second consecutive 100+ win campaign cut short in four games at the hands of the Phillies during the NLDS. If you have any questions about the coming offseason in Atlanta, you can tune in at 1:15pm CT for a live chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. This link will allow you to submit a question in advance, participate live, or read the transcript afterward.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes held a live Cubs-centric chat. Click here to read the transcript.

After falling just short of a Wild Card berth, the Cubs must re-sign Cody Bellinger or replace his production, while also considering improvements at the infield corners and in the starting rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Marcus Stroman, SP: can opt out of remaining one year, $21MM
  • Drew Smyly, SP/RP: can opt out of remaining one year, $11MM
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $16MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
  • Cody Bellinger, CF/1B: $25MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout
  • Yan Gomes, C: $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
  • Brad Boxberger, RP: $5MM mutual option with an $800K buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Cubs generally weren’t being picked as a playoff team in the preseason, but by the end of August a Wild Card berth was looking likely.  Instead, the team played to a 12-16 record in September and ultimately fell one win short of the Marlins and Diamondbacks (who held the tiebreaker over them anyway).  The shape and timing of the team’s record was painful for fans, but in the end this was simply an 83-win team.

Last winter’s big addition, Dansby Swanson, played just about as well as the Cubs could’ve hoped.  Mirroring the team as a whole, the shape of his contributions was less than ideal, as Swanson limped to an 86 wRC+ over the season’s final two months.  Still, Swanson hit well enough overall and led all MLB shortstops in defensive Outs Above Average en route to a 4.9 fWAR season that bested fellow 2022-23 free agents Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa.

The Cubs are in great shape in the middle infield, having added a year of control for Nico Hoerner in a late March extension.  Hoerner provided similar value to his double play partner Swanson, ranking fourth among second baseman in Outs Above Average and posting 4.7 WAR.

On the catching front, free agent signing Tucker Barnhart was inked to a two-year deal in the offseason but was released by August.  The lion’s share of work behind the dish went to Yan Gomes, whose 821 2/3 defensive innings at catcher were his most since 2018.  Gomes put in solid work, and the Cubs figure to pick up his option.  But at age 36, he can’t be counted on for the same workload in 2024.

Longtime Cubs catching prospect Miguel Amaya made the team for good in June, supplanting Barnhart.  Amaya hit well enough overall in his 156 plate appearances, though he did not receive consistent playing time from manager and former catcher David Ross.  The Gomes-Amaya job share seems likely to shift more toward Amaya in 2024, and a significant addition at catcher seems unlikely.

The Cubs are also set at the outfield corners with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, both of whom are under contract through 2026 after Happ’s April extension.  Similar to the Cubs’ middle infield combination, Happ played about as well as could be expected.  Suzuki’s season was uneven, but could be viewed as a leap forward given a wRC+ jump from 116 to 126.  He had a brutal June, perhaps affected by neck issues.  But once the calendar turned to August, Suzuki started hitting like a superstar.  His 183 wRC+ over the season’s final two months ranked third in all of baseball, behind only Mookie Betts and Marcell Ozuna.

The Cubs may need Suzuki to anchor their lineup next year, because Cody Bellinger’s excellent bounceback season could lead him to greener pastures.  Bellinger, 28, made good on his one-year deal to lead the Cubs with a 134 wRC+.  The likely Comeback Player of the Year split his time between center field and first base, cutting his strikeouts dramatically and crushing 26 home runs.  Bellinger started out strong in April but had been in the midst of a slump upon hitting the IL in late May for a bruised knee.  After a monthlong absence, Bellinger failed to hit the ground running.

Something clicked around June 27th, and Bellinger amazingly hit .414/.448/.682 with 11 home runs over his next 172 plate appearances.  It was, quite possibly, a $100MM hot streak.  Bellinger posted a 103 wRC+ from August 13th forward, but on the whole did well to erase the 2020-22 struggles that led him to a one-year deal.

Those struggles were explained away by agent Scott Boras as injury-related, with Boras saying the Dodgers had “asked [Bellinger] to play with a 35% strength deficiency.”  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman called that “a very convenient narrative,” and Boras subsequently walked back his comments somewhat.  Understanding how Bellinger went from the 2019 MVP, to one of the worst hitters in baseball, and back to a 4 WAR level this year is crucial in valuing Bellinger as a free agent and projecting his long-term future.  Teams will also be considering Bellinger’s Statcast metrics, which as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out in mid-August, may serve as red flags.

I have seen suggestions that a team could sign Bellinger for $150MM this winter.  My guess, without talking to Boras, is that the agent has a number roughly twice that high as a target.  Bellinger has youth, the ability to play a premium defensive position, elite offense in his contract year, and an MVP award on his shelf.  He’s also reaching free agency in a market devoid of MVP-caliber position player talent, aside from Shohei Ohtani.  Right now, I’m setting my expectations north of $250MM.

Circling back to the Cubs, they can scarcely afford to lose Bellinger, but if I’m in the correct neighborhood on the contract my guess is that the Ricketts family won’t have the appetite for it.  The Cubs pretty clearly moved toward the least expensive of the Big Four shortstops last winter in Swanson, and don’t appear to have made competitive offers to any of the other three.  Cubs ownership last shopped in the luxury aisle of free agency about six years ago, landing the #2 free agent in Yu Darvish.  They had done the same for Jon Lester and Jason Heyward previously, so there is precedent.  It’s just that it’s been a while, and there have been several missed opportunities to sign top free agents that would have supplemented the team well.  Bellinger also feels particularly risky on a megadeal, given how far he’d fallen to want to sign a one-year deal in the first place.

Another point against the Cubs signing Bellinger is the presence of Pete Crow-Armstrong.  If the Cubs believe in Crow-Armstrong, then Bellinger could spend most of a theoretical huge contract at first base, where a 120 wRC+ bat (my estimate) is a lot less exciting.  This year Crow-Armstrong conquered Double-A, did fine at Triple-A for a month, and then got a big league look in mid-September.  Crow-Armstrong drew only one start before the Cubs were eliminated, and went hitless in 19 plate appearances.  But much like Swanson and Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong’s calling card is elite defense.  Crow-Armstrong’s defense is good enough that he may be a credible regular at age 22 next year even if he doesn’t hit much.

If Bellinger prices himself out of the Cubs’ range and they decide to lean into the elite defender idea, Matt Chapman could be a target.  This year, the Cubs had four different players log 150+ innings at third base: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, and trade deadline pickup Jeimer Candelario.  Madrigal and Mastrobuoni didn’t hit enough to fit as regulars at third base, while Wisdom was used as a short-side platoon bat and struck out nearly 37% of the time.

Chapman is something of a Dansby Swanson type player, only at third base.  He makes his reputation on his glove, but is generally good for a 110 wRC+ bat.  With Chapman, Crow-Armstrong, Swanson, and Hoerner, the Cubs could have four top-five defenders on the field.  That said, Chapman turns 31 in April, and his bat was even streakier this year than any of the aforementioned Cubs.

Candelario raked for about three weeks upon joining the Cubs, and then he was terrible for the final month or so, a stint that included a lower back strain.  In a thin market, he could be in line for a four-year deal, yet could still be a safer signing for the Cubs than Bellinger or Chapman.  He also has the ability to play first base, a position where Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis failed to impress.  Mervis, 26 in April, hit well at Triple-A and remains an option at first base or designated hitter.  Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt could also be possibilities at first base, if the Cubs are seeking a free agent on a short-term deal.

The Mets’ Pete Alonso represents an intriguing first base target for the Cubs.  In August, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that the Cubs were among the teams that spoke to the Mets about Alonso prior to the deadline.  MLBTR projects a $22MM salary for Alonso in 2024, his final year before free agency.  Trading for Alonso would represent a way to replace Bellinger’s bat without making a long-term commitment.  The natural question is who would the Mets want from the Cubs for Alonso?  I don’t love some of the rare precedents for this type of trade, such as the Teoscar Hernandez or Paul Goldschmidt deals, so I’ll just say that Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns would likely seek two MLB-ready potential regulars, and the Cubs might at least have a few options on the position player side in Mervis or Kevin Alcantara.

The other big bat who could be available in trade this winter is the Padres’ Juan Soto, also under control for one more season.  Assuming the Cubs don’t want to push Happ back into center field, Soto is a less-than-ideal fit position-wise since he plays the corner outfield.  A Soto acquisition would be all about his bat, however, and his glove is shaky enough that increased DH time would be a fine one-year solution if the player is on board.  The cost in young controllable players would be significant, and Soto will earn more than Alonso next year.  I do think the Cubs could pull off a Soto or Alonso trade without parting with Crow-Armstrong.

One variable in all of this is the Cubs’ plan for Christopher Morel.  Morel put up a strong 119 wRC+ this year in 429 plate appearances with Statcast data to match, though at times his strikeout rate reached dizzying heights.  Though he’s only 24 years old and has the speed and arm to play just about anywhere, the Cubs have yet to find Morel a position.  Morel took about 38% of the team’s DH at-bats, and in his 220-game career he’s played all three outfield spots as well as second base, shortstop, and third base.

From the outside, there’s a pretty obvious long-term solution here: make a major offseason effort to teach the kid to play a competent third base.  Morel was one of six players the Cubs used at the hot corner this year, yet logged only 39 1/3 innings there.  Morel is too young and athletic to be pigeon-holed as a DH, but also doesn’t seem like he’ll flourish in a super-utility role.  If the Cubs don’t think he can play average defense at any position, perhaps Morel will wind up as trade bait.

As poor as this winter’s market is for position players, it does offer a fair number of DH types who should receive short-term contracts, such as Belt, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Garver, and Justin Turner.  Such a player could be a fit for the Cubs as a sort of Trey Mancini replacement.  Like Barnhart, Mancini was released before completing the first year of a two-year deal.

Before we get into one other free agent DH, who has also served as one of the best pitchers on the planet, let’s take a look at the Cubs’ payroll situation.  Under the Ricketts family, the Cubs have reached the competitive balance tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, though the taxes were not actually paid in 2020.  Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer noted to reporters in October that “We’re in a place now where our books are clean long term,” and that “There’s been a willingness [by ownership] to go over [the CBT] in the past.”

The first CBT threshold is $237MM in 2024, and the second is $257MM.  The Cubs did exceed the second threshold in 2019, so a $260MM payroll next year would not be without precedent in a CBT sense.  However, talking to reporters about payroll in October, Tom Ricketts said, “We were aggressive this year.  I think we’ll stay at those levels.”  He was non-committal on exceeding the CBT.

There are several key variables in saying where the Cubs’ payroll will sit when the offseason truly begins, but the one in which I’m least confident is Marcus Stroman’s status.  We’ll get to Stroman shortly, but if Stroman and Smyly stay put, Hendricks and Gomes’ options are exercised, and a few players are non-tendered, the Cubs’ CBT payroll could sit around $211MM.  That’d drop to around $188MM if Stroman opts out.  It’d be difficult for the Cubs to sign Shohei Ohtani and add other needed pieces without getting into the $260MM range.  I don’t think that’s likely, but let’s talk Ohtani anyway.

Back in 2017, the Theo Epstein-led Cubs made a strong enough initial pitch to Ohtani to be one of the player’s seven finalists – the only one located in the Midwest.  Aside from geography, the lack of the DH in the NL at the time was a major stumbling block.  Now, the Cubs have a DH spot and Ohtani will be a free agent without contract restrictions.  Ohtani had elbow surgery in September and will not pitch until 2025, yet we still believe he’ll require an average annual value in excess of $40MM and a contract exceeding $500MM.

The Dodgers figure to loom large on Ohtani, as a perennial contender that plays on the West Coast.  The Cubs can’t do anything about where they play, and one 83-win season hardly positions them as a regular contender.  It’s possible that most of the other teams bidding on Ohtani also can’t make a strong claim as a perennial contender.  So I think beyond a huge contract offer that I’m not convinced the Cubs would make, the team would have to assure Ohtani that they’re adding other key pieces this winter and will project to regularly make the playoffs.

It’s been four years since the Cubs actually paid the CBT, and six since they’ve signed a top-two free agent.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-generation player, and this might be the only offseason in which he’s technically available to any team.  It’s possible the Cubs are planning a run at Ohtani, but they don’t seem like a favorite.

As I mentioned, Stroman’s opt-out decision is tough to predict after a season in which he started quite strong but tanked in his last 11 outings and somehow fractured his rib cage cartilage.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about this a few weeks ago for Front Office subscribers.  The points in favor of the opt-out, according to Anthony: “It’s possible he’d prefer to take the strong one-year salary, stay in a place where he’s comfortable, and bet on better health when he’d be a true free agent next winter.”  Anthony went on to counter, “That said, I don’t think it’s quite as likely as many Cub fans might expect. While Stroman’s value is down, there’d still be multi-year offers on the table if he did test the market. While they might come at a lower annual salary than $21MM, the overall guarantee should be strong enough to make opting out still worthwhile.”  Recent precedent in favor of Stroman opting out: Nathan Eovaldi turning down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox to sign a two-year, $34MM deal.

Justin Steele made a run at the Cy Young this year in a breakout season.  Jameson Taillon disappointed in his first year as a Cub, but his peripheral stats suggest he can get back to the low-4.00s ERA pitcher the team thought they were getting.  Ricketts indicated Hendricks will likely return, which makes sense after a solid bounceback season.  If Stroman stays, that’d be four rotation spots locked up with veteran arms.  Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski could compete for the fifth starter job, with Drew Smyly around in a swingman role.  Top pitching prospect Cade Horton reached Double-A this year and could make the leap to the bigs at some point in 2024.  Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian could be in the mix as well, though they did not have success at Triple-A this year.

The Cubs’ 4.26 rotation ERA ranked sixth in the National League.  Running mostly the same group out there in 2024 wouldn’t be exciting, but it’s not out of the question.  Even if Stroman stays, I can see the Cubs making some sort of rotation addition to improve their depth.  But I assume they wouldn’t mind the payroll flexibility they’d gain if he opts out, and would become more aggressive in the market in that case.

The free agent market for starting pitching this winter looks strong, led by 25-year-old Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Yamamoto checks a lot of boxes for the Cubs, much like Seiya Suzuki did.  Yamamoto is in the prime of his career, which is almost never the case for a free agent starter.  A team could reduce his AAV by stretching the years to eight or so, and they’d still only be committing through his age-32 season.  Plus, the posting fee paid to the Buffaloes doesn’t count against the CBT.  Hoyer took a scouting trip to Japan in September, where Yamamoto and lefty Shota Imanaga were among the players he saw.

As risky as a $200MM+ deal for Yamamoto could be, the rest of the top end of the free agent market would also require a leap of faith, with players like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, and possibly Eduardo Rodriguez.  The trade market doesn’t feature a ton of obvious targets, aside from perhaps Shane Bieber.

The Cubs’ makeshift bullpen also ranked sixth in the NL in ERA.  The group had the NL’s highest strikeout and walk rates, so it was a mixed bag.  David Ross leaned the hardest on Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr., and Julian Merryweather in the second half.  MLBTR projects the trio to earn less than $6MM in total next year, so the Cubs have good value there.  Alzolay, 29 in March, broke out as the team’s closer this year but hit the IL at a key point in September with a forearm strain.  The wheels started wobbling on Leiter and Merryweather as well.

Out of desperation, Ross also used Jose Cuas, Smyly, Daniel Palencia, and Javier Assad in key spots in September.  They’ll all be in the mix next year.  Lefty Brandon Hughes should be back after missing most of the season due to knee surgery.  On his way back from March 2022 Tommy John surgery, Codi Heuer had June surgery to repair an elbow fracture.  His timeline is currently unknown.

Hoyer’s bargain-buy veterans last winter were Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  Both were non-factors this year due to injuries and ineffectiveness.  The Cubs haven’t signed a reliever to a multiyear deal since Craig Kimbrel in June of 2019, instead preferring cheap one-year deals in recent offseasons.

In trying to predict the Cubs’ offseason, payroll is the biggest consideration.  If the Cubs are to run, say, a $235MM CBT payroll and Stroman stays put, they’d have an estimated $24MM in AAV to add this winter.  That wouldn’t be a ton of wiggle room, in contrast to the $88MM in AAV the Cubs added last winter.  With Bellinger possibly departing, it’s tough to see the Cubs improving upon 2023 without a notable payroll increase.

Coaching Notes: Counsell, Astros, Rays

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Brewers manager Craig Counsell just wrapped up the final year of his contract in Milwaukee, prompting widespread speculation that he could depart his hometown team after nine years in the club’s dugout. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that the Mets have “a reasonable chance” of prying Counsell away from his longtime team, though Heyman added that a source connected to the Brewers indicated that the organization believes he’ll remain with the team as long as he gets paid “what he believes is fair.”

Heyman adds that negotiations between Counsell and the Brewers have seemingly not yet progressed at this point, though as previously reported, Counsell won’t have the option to speak to other teams until November. While Counsell, who lives year-round with his family in the suburbs of Milwaukee, has strong ties to both the are and the Brewers organization, Heyman notes that the Mets have potential advantages in newly-hired president of baseball operations David Stearns and, perhaps more importantly, the reported ability to offer Counsell a significant raise; Heyman relays that a source suggested the Mets could offer Counsell double his 2023 salary with Milwaukee of $3.5MM.

A consensus top-tier manager in today’s game, Counsell would surely attract interest from other clubs if he was willing to depart Milwaukee; the Guardians, Giants, and Angels all have managerial openings of their own. Whether Counsell eventually ends up staying with the Brewers, headed to the Mets, or somewhere else entirely, Heyman notes the Mets are still proceeding with their managerial search in order to ensure they have options outside of Counsell.

More coaching notes from around the game…

  • One candidate for the Mets Heyman floats is Astros manager Dusty Baker, though his connection of Baker and Queens appears to be purely speculative. That said, Heyman does suggest that Baker is “frustrated” over disputes with the front office regarding analytics. Baker’s decision to use Martin Maldonado as the club’s primary catcher rather than rookie Yainer Diaz as an example of a situation where GM Dana Brown’s front office has butted heads with the dugout. Baker, for his part, has managed in Houston for four seasons on a series of one-year pacts and was noncommittal regarding whether he planned to manage beyond 2023 when asked earlier this year. If the Astros do go in another direction for the manager’s chair after this season, Heyman speculates that bench coach and longtime managerial candidate Joe Espada would be a “logical replacement” for Baker in the Houston dugout.
  • The Rays announced today that first base coach Chris Prieto and assistant hitting coach Dan DeMent will not return to the club’s coaching staff for the 2024 season. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds that the Rays are expected to consider both internal and external candidates as they look to replace Prieto, though DeMent will not be replaced on the staff. Topkin notes that with hitting coach Chad Mottola and assistant hitting coach Brady North already in place, the Rays felt a third hitting coach “proved unwieldy.” The only other change in the club’s coaching staff Topkin relays as expected is the departure of process and analytics coach Jonathan Erlichman, who Topkin adds is moving to another position in the organization, though that position has not yet been disclosed.

Texas Notes: deGrom, Scherzer, Tucker, Verlander

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While the Rangers have gone 7-0 so far through the postseason, ace right-hander Jacob deGrom has been forced to watch his club’s success from home after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in June. The long time Mets righty sat down with Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently to discuss his recovery process four months removed from the surgery.

Fortunately, it appears that deGrom’s rehab process is going rather well. A typical timeline for a pitcher in deGrom’s situation would be somewhere between 14 and 18 months before returning to a big league mound but deGrom expressed optimism that he could return to the Rangers at the earlier end of that window, with August 2024 as a stated goal. Of course, there’s a long road ahead to reach that point, though Sherman notes that deGrom has regained full range of motion at this point and will be able to return to throwing shortly after the new year, with a mound in sight come Spring Training.

If deGrom is indeed healthy and effective come the stretch run in 2024, he’d surely provide a massive boost to a Rangers club that dominated for much of the 2023 regular season and has seemingly found a second wind during the postseason in spite of a difficult stretch run that saw the club slow to a 38-33 record in the second half this season. Ignoring any possible offseason additions, deGrom would return to a 2024 rotation group that projects to feature former Mets co-ace Max Scherzer, veterans Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, southpaw Andrew Heaney, and right-hander Dane Dunning. When on the mound for the Rangers this year, deGrom was nothing short of excellent with a 2.67 ERA and 1.54 FIP across six starts. His current contract runs through the end of the 2027 season, with a 2028 club option that triggered as a result of him undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year.

More from around the state of Texas…

  • Sticking with the Rangers, manager Bruce Bochy spoke to reporters this afternoon regarding tomorrow’s Game 3 of the ALCS, where Scherzer is expected to take the mound in a competitive setting for the first time in over a month due to a teres major strain. While Bochy didn’t specify whether or not Scherzer would have any sort of limitations on him headed into tomorrow’s game, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic relayed that Bochy referred to 70 pitches as a “baseline” for Scherzer. That’s in line with his previously reported 68-pitch simulated game prior to the ALCS. If Scherzer is indeed limited in some capacity during tomorrow’s game, the Rangers have plenty of long relief options available to them, including Cody Bradford and Martin Perez.
  • Meanwhile, Astros manager Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) this afternoon regarding the club’s plans for the remainder of the ALCS, in which they trail their division rival 0-2. Baker noted that he’s spoken to outfielder Kyle Tucker about a potential move down the batting order, though he emphasized that such a move would be temporary. It’s been a rough postseason for Tucker, as the 26-year-old has gone hitless in the ALCS so far after slashing just .143/.294/.214 in 17 trips to the plate against the Twins during the ALDS. Baker did not, however, indicate whether or not the club is considering turning to veteran ace and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on short rest for Game 4, saying that the club hasn’t discussed the possibility yet. Verlander would be on three days of rest for Game 4, a situation in which the Astros have used him in the playoffs before. As Rome notes, Verlander struggled against the Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS back in 2019 on three days of rest, allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work.

Red Sox Notes: Click, Interviews, Ferreira

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As the Red Sox continue to search for a new head of baseball operations after firing Chaim Bloom last month, names continue to emerge as potential candidates. One of the names receiving the most attention as things stand is former Astros GM James Click, who won the World Series with the club last year before parting ways with the organization last offseason.

A pursuit of Click is not without its complications, however. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo, while confirming Boston’s interest in Click for their top job, discusses some of the potential roadblocks that could leave Click’s interest in the role in doubt. Perhaps most notably, Cotillo points out the longtime friendship Click has with Bloom, noting that Bloom is the one who pushed the Rays to hire Click for his first job in a big league front office. While Cotillo makes clear that it seems unlikely Bloom would actively push Click away from interviewing for the position, he does note that the longstanding relationship between the two could give Click unique insight to the potential pitfalls of the position, particularly after Bloom’s sudden exit toward the end of the season.

Beyond Click’s relationship with Bloom, Cotillo notes a number of similarities between the Red Sox and Astros organizational structures that could turn him away from interest in Boston’s top job. After all, Click’s relationship with the Astros deteriorated in part thanks to his relationships with the club’s influential, strong-willed manager in Dusty Baker, and hands-on owner Jim Crane. Meanwhile, Red Sox manager Alex Cora is known to have a voice in Red Sox front office, including playing a role in the hiring process for the club’s next GM, and Cotillo notes that Red Sox ownership has had philosophical disputes with the front office across several regimes over the past decade.

Of course, Click is far from the only known candidate for the position. In terms of other external candidates, reports indicated earlier today that Twins GM Thad Levine, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, and Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow have all already interviewed for the role. That being said, the club has also involved internal candidates in their search. Assistant GM Eddie Romero is known to have previously interviewed for the position, with some reporting describing him as the “internal favorite.” According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, however, Romero is not the only internal candidate to be interviewed with both assistant GM Mike Groopman and VP of amateur scouting & player development Paul Toboni also having sat down for interviews with the organization. Cotillo adds that Toboni in particular is viewed as a “potential dark horse” in the running for Boston’s top job.

One internal candidate who won’t be interviewing for the position is assistant GM Raquel Ferreira, who declined the opportunity to interview for the position. As relayed by Cotillo, Ferreira cited family reasons in her decision not to interview for the club’s top job, and will remain in her current role in the organization. Ferreira has previously interviewed for top baseball operations jobs in other organizations, and did not close the door on pursuing a top front office job in the future, noting that “things could be different for me a year or two from now.”

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