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Andrew Friedman On Roberts, Kershaw, Offseason Plans

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Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman met with the media (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) on Tuesday afternoon, alongside GM Brandon Gomes. The two executives discussed the disappointing conclusion to another Dodgers season, potential changes to the major league coaching staff, and the team’s offseason plans.

Speaking on his ballclub’s unceremonious exit from the playoffs, Friedman could not deny that the words “organizational failure” ring true once again (he used the same phrase last season). Putting it bluntly, he said, “Our goal was to win 11 games in October, and we didn’t win one.” Indeed, Diamondbacks hitters trounced the Dodgers pitching staff in Game 1 of the NLDS, and L.A.’s own powerful offense rarely came through. Notably, Friedman also used the term “organizational failure” to avoid blaming any specific people or groups of people for his team’s poor performance. “Organizational failure means it’s on all of us,” he explained.

On that note, Friedman left no doubt that manager Dave Roberts and his entire coaching staff would be back in 2024, confirming that there won’t be any changes in the clubhouse. “I think [Dave Roberts] and our coaching staff did an incredible job this year,” he said, “And none of us did an incredible job in those three games versus Arizona.”

Unsurprisingly, Friedman says his top priority this offseason will be starting pitching. That means assessing internal options as well as considering potential trades and free agent signings. Dodgers’ starters struggled in 2023, posting an uncharacteristic 4.57 ERA and 4.37 SIERA. Things became especially bleak toward the end of the year; ten different pitchers started a game for the Dodgers in September, combining for a 4.87 ERA. The team had no shortage of depth, but too few reliable options.

Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías will be free agents after the season, as will Lance Lynn – presuming the Dodgers decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout. On top of that, Tony Gonsolin will be out for most, if not all, of the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dustin May’s status for next season is also up in the air, after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in July.

That leaves Bobby Miller, who just completed his rookie season, and Walker Buehler, who hasn’t pitched since June 2022, as the only healthy, established starters remaining in the Dodgers rotation. The team has several young starting pitchers on the roster, including Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone, but none with more than 100 innings of big league experience. Friedman expressed confidence in Miller and Buehler during his press conference, but he understands the need to augment the rotation.

As for Kershaw, Friedman made it clear that the Dodgers are “absolutely” interested in bringing the superstar pitcher back for another season. However, the ten-time All-Star hasn’t yet told the team if he plans to return. “I think he and [his wife] Ellen are going to take some time right now and assess,” the team president said (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). “The ball’s squarely in their court.”

In addition to starting pitching, Friedman will also look to address position player needs during the offseason. The Dodgers had an excellent offense in 2023, finishing second in baseball in OPS and runs scored. That said, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, utility man Enrique Hernández, and outfielders Jason Heyward and David Peralta will all be free agents after the conclusion of the World Series. The team will need to replace Martinez and Heyward’s production in particular. In addition, the Dodgers might look to add a new infielder so Mookie Betts can return to a regular role in right field.

Gomes didn’t speak as much as his boss, but he did confirm a report that he declined to interview for the GM opening in Boston. “I’m very flattered and appreciate the interest,” he said (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). “But I love it here, and my family loves it here. I’m passionate about this organization and solely focused on winning multiple championships here.”

Leody Taveras Prolongs His Breakout Season Into the Playoffs

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Leody Taveras was always a glove-first prospect. Evaluators praised his long strides, top-tier sprint speed, and powerful arm, with Baseball America naming him the best defensive outfielder in the Rangers system three years in a row. He showed potential in his bat, too, but never quite reached his ceiling in the minor leagues. However, if you’d only seen Taveras play in the 2023 postseason, you’d never guess that his bat was once such a question mark.

The 25-year-old has started in center field for all seven of the Rangers’ playoff games thus far. He has taken 29 trips to the plate and reached base 14 times; among those still active in the postseason, only Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Evan Carter, and Trea Turner have reached base more often. Taveras has drawn six walks, slapped five singles, and recorded one of each flavor of extra-base hit. He’s 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts, and he hasn’t struck out since Game 1 of the ALDS. Overall, his slash line sits at .348/.483/.609, good for a 199 wRC+. Needless to say, those aren’t numbers you expect to see from a “glove-first” center fielder.

Taveras wasn’t nearly as successful with the bat during the regular season (nor is he likely to sustain his monstrous postseason slash line), but he did take a meaningful step forward at the plate. In his first full season, he slashed .266/.312/.421, career highs in all three categories. What’s more, he brought his strikeout rate down below league average and finally tapped into the raw power evaluators always saw in his profile. His average exit velocity went up, he refined his launch angles, and he hit more barrels than in his first three seasons combined. In 143 games, the switch-hitter slugged 14 home runs and 31 doubles, and he legged out three triples to boot.

While Taveras went through a rough patch in the second half, slashing .191/.224/.316 during the first six weeks after the All-Star break, he turned things around in September. Over his final 26 games, he went 26-for-84, hitting .310 and producing a 126 wRC+. Even the best hitters go through slumps, and the good ones have the resilience to come out swinging on the other side.

Altogether, his regular season offensive numbers add up to a 98 wRC+. That’s two percent worse than the league-average hitter, but it’s worth considering that Taveras plays a premium defensive position. According to FanGraphs, primary center fielders produced a 98 wRC+ this season, making Taveras perfectly average for his position. Average offense is more than enough for a player who also boasts elite speed and an excellent glove.

Indeed, Taveras proved to be a five-tool player in 2023. He stole 14 bases with his 92nd-percentile sprint speed, and he graded out as a strong defender by nearly every metric available. The Rangers’ center fielder posted a .997 fielding percentage, 3 Defensive Runs Saved, and 6 Outs Above Average. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 85th percentile in overall fielding run value, thanks to his strong arm and quick reactions in the outfield.

After his breakout campaign in 2023, the Rangers are surely hoping Taveras will be their center fielder for the foreseeable future. Still just 25 years old, he won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2025 season, and he won’t reach free agency for another three years after that. Leody Taveras can’t maintain his postseason performance forever, but if he keeps playing like he did this past season, the Rangers certainly won’t complain.

Red Sox Interview Three External Candidates In GM Search

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The Red Sox’s search for a new general manager to replace Chaim Bloom might be picking up steam. As Alex Speier reports for the Boston Globe, the team has already interviewed at least three high-profile external candidates for the position: Twins GM Thad Levine, Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow, and former Pirates GM Neal Huntington.

On Monday, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported that Huntington and Levine were under consideration, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested Breslow as another candidate. However, it was unclear if the interest was mutual. Several rumored contenders have already declined to interview with the Red Sox, including former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill, Phillies GM Sam Fuld, and Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes. Another rumored candidate, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, shut down any speculation that he would take a job in Boston when he signed a multi-year extension with Arizona.

Levine, Breslow, and Huntington join Red Sox executive VP and assistant general manager Eddie Romero Jr. as candidates known to have interviewed, although Speier suggests that Romero isn’t the only internal candidate to take a meeting about the position. Other rumored internal candidates include Romero’s fellow assistant GMs, Raquel Ferreira and Mike Groopman, along with other VPs in the organization, such as Ben Crockett, Mike Rikard, and Gus Quattlebaum.

Of the four names known to have interviewed, Levine is the only one currently working as a general manager, but even so, he isn’t the top decision-maker in the Twins organization. He works under president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, who, funnily enough, declined an interview with the Red Sox himself (per Chad Jennings of The Athletic). While Levine is surely enjoying his team’s recent success, he might enjoy the chance to be the chief baseball executive for a new organization, especially one that typically runs a much higher payroll than Minnesota. Similarly, Huntington might be tempted by the Red Sox’s budget after so many years with the low-spending Pirates and Guardians. Meanwhile, Breslow and Romero are presumably interested in the chance to run their own front office.

Earlier this month, Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy expressed that he isn’t working under a deadline to hire a new GM. More specifically, he would not commit to having a new executive in place by the annual general managers meetings in early November. He told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive), “We plan to take our time. We plan to be very deliberate… We’re not going to let any deadline or timeline put constraints on the process.”

In other words, while the Red Sox seem to have accelerated their search in recent days, they could still take a while to name a new GM. If nothing else, they will presumably do their due diligence and consider brand-new candidate Kim Ng before making a decision. The team has not yet expressed interest in the former Marlins GM, but given her success with Miami this season and her apparent desire to run her own front office, she could be a good fit for the role.

Mariners Outright Brian O’Keefe

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TODAY: Brian O’Keefe has cleared waivers, the Mariners announced. The 30-year-old backstop has been sent outright to the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers. While he does not have the necessary service time to reject an outright assignment, O’Keefe will have the chance to elect minor league free agency this offseason.

OCTOBER 13: The Mariners announced that they have designated catcher Brian O’Keefe for assignment. His roster spot will go to right-hander Kaleb Ort, who was previously-reported to have been claimed off waivers from the Red Sox.

O’Keefe, 30, signed a minor league deal with the club in the offseason and was selected to the roster in August when Tom Murphy landed on the injured list with a thumb sprain. He got into just eight games before heading to the paternity list and was optioned to the minors when he returned. In 91 Triple-A games this year, he hit .238/.328/.504, which translated to a wRC+ of 93 in the potent offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League.

The M’s will now put him on waivers in the coming days. He still has options and just a limited amount of service time, which could appeal to any club looking for catching depth. If he were to clear, he wouldn’t have the right to reject an outright assignment right away but would qualify for minor league free agency five days after the World Series.

Cardinals Have Discussed Coaching Job With Yadier Molina

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The Cardinals and Yadier Molina have had discussions about him joining the major league coaching staff next year, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The report adds that there’s mutual interest from both parties.

Molina is obviously well known around baseball and particularly in St. Louis. He just wrapped up a playing career that went from 2004 to 2022, all of that in Cardinal red. Now 41, he has previously expressed a desire to move towards managing/coaching in his post-playing career, having already gotten some experience outside of Major League Baseball. Molina has done some managing in the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League as well as acting as skipper for Puerto Rican teams in international play, including the most recent World Baseball Classic.

His potential role with the Cardinals next year isn’t exactly clear, but Woo relays that it’s expected it would be an everyday position. It doesn’t currently appear as though any of the current coaches are in jeopardy, with Molina likely to be an addition rather than a replacement. Woo points out that the club had one of the smaller staffs in the league in 2023, with some players apparently expressing that there “simply wasn’t enough coaching to go around,” in Woo’s words.

Adding another coach, whether Molina or someone else, would obviously help if that’s a real problem for manager Oli Marmol and the rest of the staff. But Molina specifically could be a good fit, given his legendary status in the organization. There’s also the fact that the post-Molina era didn’t kick off with a bang. During Molina’s time as the club’s backstop, they made frequent postseason appearances and only finished below .500 once, back in 2007. But the first season after his retirement saw the club go 71-91 and fall to the basement of the National League Central.

There were whispers that some members of the St. Louis pitching staff weren’t happy with the transition to Willson Contreras, who was signed last offseason to take over Molina’s job behind the plate. Contreras was even moved off the catching position for a time this year, working as the designated hitter only, though he was back behind the plate a week later. If there’s any lingering discord between the pitchers and Contreras, perhaps Molina’s presence as a coach could help to bridge that gap.

Turning to the club’s roster, Woo discusses the club’s impending rotation work. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has openly expressed a desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter, in order to replace the retiring Adam Wainwright and impending free agents Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom were traded prior to the deadline. Free agency is obviously one avenue to pursuing upgrades, but the Cardinals haven’t traditionally been big spenders in that regard. Their largest free agent signing in franchise history is the $120MM deal they gave to Matt Holliday back in 2010, with Mike Leake’s $80MM deal in 2015 the largest they’ve given to a pitcher.

It seems they are giving some thought to breaking one or both of those records. They have already been connected to Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola, each of whom would likely require a deal larger than Leake’s in order to sign. Woo adds that the club is open to a reunion with Montgomery, though he’s likely pushing his next contract well into nine-figure territory, based both on his regular season work and strong playoff performance with the Rangers thus far.

Woo also adds that the Cards will “check in” on Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club is indeed interested in Yamamoto, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Speculation around Yamamoto’s potential contract seems to suggest he could be in line for something around $200MM, based both on his youth and his excellent results in Nippon Professional Baseball. Having just turned 25 in August, he’s far younger than typical free agents, and he also has an ERA of 1.82 over his seven NPB seasons.

Giving out a mega deal for a starting pitcher would be new territory for the Cards, but it sounds like they are exploring every avenue in order to put this rough season behind them. That will likely involve trading from their position player mix as well, though who they are willing to part with remains to be seen.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLB’s best regular season team, the Braves were knocked out by the Phillies in a disappointing Division Series. They’ll bring back the majority of the roster to give things another go in 2024, although they could have a few changes outside the core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $197MM through 2032 (deal includes ’33 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $132MM through 2029
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $74MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $69MM through 2028 (deal includes ’29 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $67MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option; deal includes ’32 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $61MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option; deal includes ’28 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $32MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $19MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $18MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $5MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
  • Tyler Matzek, LHP: $1.9MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $130.65MM
Total future commitments: $686.65MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Soroka, Lopez, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, Tonkin, Velazquez, Ynoa

Free Agents

For the second straight year, a Braves team that won 100+ games was vanquished by the Phillies in a four-game Division Series. While surely a frustrating endpoint for the organization and its fanbase, they’ll have another crack with the same key group of players that comprised this year’s most dominant regular season team.

In each of the past two winters, the Braves had a marquee impending free agent. There’s no one close to the level of Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson this winter, though they’re now just a year away from the potential departure of star southpaw Max Fried.

The most notable potential free agents among this year’s class fall into one of two categories: veterans whose contracts contain a club option or non-closing relievers. Charlie Morton is the biggest name in the former group. The Braves hold a $20MM option on the righty, who worked to a 3.64 ERA across 30 starts.

Morton turns 40 next month and has been noncommittal about his future for a few seasons. He’s clearly comfortable in Atlanta, signing successive one-year contracts going back to 2021. Morton has been reasonably effective that entire time, combining for a 3.77 ERA while taking the ball for 94 starts.

This past season didn’t end as Morton envisioned. He carried a 3.29 ERA into the final month but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in September. A minor injury to the index finger on his throwing hand ended his season, although he likely could’ve made it back had the Braves gotten to the NLCS.

The down finish might make the Braves reluctant to commit a $20MM salary. Even if Atlanta balks at that asking price, it stands to reason the sides would have interest in a slightly lesser figure if Morton wants to continue playing. Perhaps negotiating a new deal in the $15MM range could be mutually agreeable.

If Morton retires or signs elsewhere, Atlanta’s rotation depth would become a real question. Spencer Strider and Fried are an elite 1-2 combination. It tails off quickly. While Bryce Elder had a solid rookie season overall, the risk of his pitch-to-contact approach was demonstrated with a 5.11 ERA in the second half. Kyle Wright underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa could return from Tommy John rehabs in the season’s first half; both right-handers had struggled before going under the knife. Allan Winans and Darius Vines seem better suited for depth roles.

Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd landed season-opening rotation spots this year. Both were hit hard and quickly lost their starting jobs. Michael Soroka pitched well in Triple-A but was tagged for a 6.40 ERA in seven big league appearances. His season ended in early September due to forearm inflammation. With a projected $3MM arbitration salary and enough service time that he can no longer be optioned to the minor leagues without his consent, he may not be tendered a contract. Late-season waiver claim Yonny Chirinos and trade returnee Kolby Allard could be non-tendered as well.

Among the in-house options, 20-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver is the most intriguing. He struck out over 31% of minor league opponents and earned his first major league call in May. He had an unspectacular 20:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six MLB contests. That shouldn’t stake a firm claim to a rotation spot, but the Braves had sufficient faith to carry him on their playoff roster. Atlanta is aggressive enough in promoting young players that they could give Smith-Shawver a look early in the year.

That may also be true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep. The Florida product made it as high as Triple-A Gwinnett in his draft year. He fanned a third of opponents with a 1.53 ERA in his first eight professional starts. In many organizations, Waldrep would’ve closed out the season in the low minors. The Braves move their top talents quickly, and while both Smith-Shawver and Waldrep presently have below-average control, they have strong enough arsenals that they could get on the radar.

Even if the Braves are confident in Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep factoring in early in the season, they’ll need to bring in starting pitching. Atlanta has shied away from free agency in recent years, preferring to make their big strikes via trade and subsequent contract extensions.

The aren’t a ton of clear rotation trade targets. There’d been speculation about the Brewers trading one of Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. With Woodruff potentially missing all of next season following shoulder surgery, he’s no longer a possibility. That might take Burnes off the table as well, since Milwaukee would take a major step back if they lose both of their top starters. The Guardians could move Shane Bieber, who’s projected for a $12.2MM salary in his final year of club control and missed most of the second half with forearm inflammation.

Teams will inquire with the White Sox about Dylan Cease, though it’s unclear if Chicago has the appetite for that kind of move. It’s a similar story with the Rays and Tyler Glasnow. Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill are potential targets among arbitration-eligible starters.

If the Braves can’t line up a trade, they should have room to go into free agency. They have just under $131MM committed to next year’s roster. The arbitration class should tack on around $25MM pending non-tenders. Exercising Morton’s option or negotiating a slightly lower salary could bring their expenditures to the $170-175MM range.

Atlanta carried an Opening Day payroll just above $203MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’d leave around $25-30MM in spending room if they’re willing to repeat that level. It’s a similar story regarding the luxury tax threshold. The Braves exceeded the base threshold this year. Should they go past next year’s threshold — which begins at $237MM — they’d pay escalating penalties as a repeat payor.

Atlanta’s current CBT estimate sits somewhere in the $190-200MM range. (It’s higher than the actual payroll figure because the CBT calculation includes player benefits and is based off contracts’ average annual values.) The option price or a new deal for Morton could leave them between $20-30MM shy of the base threshold to begin the offseason. There’s nothing to suggest the $237MM CBT number represents a hard barrier for the organization, but it’ll likely be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

A strike for Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t the Braves’ typical operating procedure. Going into the middle tier of the market for someone like Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha should be viable. If Morton doesn’t return, that’d leave more payroll room if they wanted to make a run at Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez.

The front office figures to engage Fried’s camp in extension talks. The 2022 Cy Young runner-up is projected for a salary around $14.4MM in his final season of arbitration. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Fried should top the six-year, $162MM guarantee that Carlos Rodón received last winter. The contract that Snell lands this offseason could set a new standard for Fried’s camp. The Braves have been the league’s most aggressive team in signing key players to extensions. The Freeman and Swanson scenarios demonstrate they’re not keen to throw top-of-the-market money at all their players, though.

Atlanta also figures to go into free agency for relief help. Joe Jiménez and deadline pickup Pierce Johnson are both headed to free agency. Jiménez had an excellent season and could find a three-year deal. The Braves never entrusted him with high-leverage work, so they seem unlikely to match that kind of commitment. Johnson was utterly dominant after coming off from the Rockies. Retaining him on a two-year pact could be viable.

The Braves could also re-sign Jesse Chavez, who consistently provides them with quality low-leverage innings on salaries barely above the league minimum. They have a pair of option decisions on Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. The former is likely to be bought out after his strikeout rate plummeted this past season. They could retain Yates, who still has huge strikeout stuff, for an extra $4.5MM after accounting for the option buyout. Atlanta will decline its end of a $7MM mutual option on Brad Hand.

Raisel Iglesias is under contract for another two seasons as the closer. A.J. Minter is a high-leverage lefty. Tyler Matzek should be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2022 postseason. Yates, Nick Anderson and long man Michael Tonkin could all be retained. Rookie Daysbel Hernández made the playoff roster and offers a high-strikeout, high-walk option.

Even if they can re-sign Johnson, the Braves should add one or two arms to the late innings. A nine-figure strike for Josh Hader seems unlikely, but anyone else in the class could fit. Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López are among the higher-upside arms in the free agent group. Trade possibilities include Scott Barlow and Kyle Finnegan.

The lone option decision on the position player side is a $9MM provision for Eddie Rosario. It’s a borderline price for the streaky left fielder, who had a .255/.305/.450 showing with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances this year. While his overall production was average, Rosario’s in-season performance was extremely volatile. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in June, excellent in August, and well below-average in every other month.

If the Braves move on, Tommy Pham, Michael Conforto (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and Mark Canha (pending a club option with Milwaukee) could be free agent targets. Alex Verdugo and Ramón Laureano could be on the trade market.

Aside from the Rosario decision, the starting lineup is in place. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. will hold the other outfield spots. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley are locked in around the infield. Marcell Ozuna mashed from May onwards and silenced early-season speculation about his future at designated hitter. Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud make for an excellent catching tandem, Murphy’s late-season offensive swoon notwithstanding.

No one would’ve pegged the Braves as a suitor for Murphy going into last winter, so a trade to add to the lineup can’t be entirely ruled out. Acquiring a notable starting pitcher feels more likely given the offense’s strength, however. Should they try to bring in a starter with multiple seasons of club control — thereby providing some cover if Fried walks next offseason — they could dangle middle infielder Vaughn Grissom.

Arcia’s emergence at shortstop kept Grissom mostly in Triple-A this year (although he did make the playoff roster and was improbably called off the bench to take their final at-bat against Matt Strahm). He had an excellent year in Gwinnett, hitting .330/.419/.501 with a 12% walk rate while striking out just 14.1% of the time. The biggest question is where he best fits defensively.

There’s no room for him on the Atlanta infield. The Braves could get Grissom some outfield work as a possible Rosario replacement. If another team feels the 22-year-old (23 in January) projects as a big league ready shortstop or second baseman, he might be more valuable to the Braves as a trade chip. The Mariners (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long) have questions at one or both middle infield spots and could dangle a controllable starter who has shown promise at the major league level. That kind of young player swap is rare but can’t be ruled out, particularly with teams having very little opportunity to add middle infield talent in free agency.

As tends to be the case for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, there’s the potential for a notable move or two. Yet the broad theme of the winter should again be continuity. Brian Snitker will be back for an eighth full season as manager. The most important players are all under contract, with everyone aside from Fried signed for multiple years. The Braves should be a top five team in 2024. Whether that results in a commensurate playoff run won’t be known until October.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 10-18-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Jorge Polanco?

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Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.

Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.

The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.

Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.

There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.

At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.

Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.

The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.

Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.

The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.

Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.

What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

What should the Twins do with Jorge Polanco?
Trade him 56.54% (2,230 votes)
Keep him 43.46% (1,714 votes)
Total Votes: 3,944

The Opener: NLCS, ALCS, Ng

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Here are three things we’re monitoring around baseball today…

1. NLCS Game 2:

The Phillies took the first game of the National League Championship series, winning last night’s contest 5-3 to take a 1-0 lead in the series. The second game goes tonight at 7:07 pm Central, with Merrill Kelly starting for the Diamondbacks and Aaron Nola for the Phillies. Can Arizona even the series or will the Phils take a 2-0 lead out west? Kelly tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings in his one postseason start thus far while Nola, an impending free agent, has a 1.42 ERA in his 12 2/3 innings so far in this year’s playoffs.

2. ALCS travel day:

The Rangers managed to hold on to a 5-4 victory yesterday, giving them a 2-0 lead in the ALCS. That puts the defending-champion Astros in a tight spot, heading to Arlington for three straight games there. They will need to win two of those three contests on the road just to stay alive and send the series back to Houston for Game 6. Game 3 is tomorrow night with Cristian Javier set to square off against Max Scherzer, who will be making his return from an injury that once seemed season-ending. A situation worth monitoring will be Yordan Alvarez, who has been sick and was almost held out of the Game 2 lineup. As relayed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Alvarez insisted on playing and ended up hitting a pair of home runs yesterday. Ideally, the off-day will give him a chance to get over his illness but it certainly didn’t seem to hamper his performance.

3. What’s next for Kim Ng:

Yesterday brought the surprising news that the Marlins and general manager Kim Ng would not be continuing their relationship for another year. The club reportedly exercised a mutual option for 2024 but she did not trigger her end, seemingly motivated by the club being unwilling to give her a longer extension and because they planned to install a president of baseball operations above her. Given that the Marlins have fared well during her tenure, she figures to get interest from other clubs, but it’s unknown if she wants to immediately jump into a new job or take some time to mull things over. The Mets are looking for a general manager, but one that would work under president of baseball operations David Stearns. The Sox are also on the hunt for a GM but reporting indicates it’s not the most attractive job in the league, for various reasons.

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