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Christian Arroyo Elects Free Agency

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Christian Arroyo elected free agency on Monday, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. The Red Sox designated him for assignment in August after he slashed .241/.268/.369 in 66 games for the big league club. He played for the Triple-A Worcester Red Sox for the rest of the month, going 4-for-42 with only one extra-base hit in 12 games. He spent much of September on the injured list, dealing with inflammation in his right ankle.

Arroyo was one of many DFA’d players to elect free agency following the last day of the regular season; others included Archie Bradley, Daniel Norris, and fellow WooSox player Caleb Hamilton. Still, Arroyo is perhaps the most notable name of the bunch. He was the Opening Day second baseman for the Red Sox, having put together a respectable .277/.323/.426 slash line over the previous two seasons. Unfortunately, he didn’t look like that player in 2023.

Never a disciplined hitter or a power threat, his already-low walk rate fell even lower and Arroyo struggled to make hard contact. His average exit velocity fell by more than two miles per hour, while his hard-hit rate dropped by 10% (per Statcast). Meanwhile, his glove was capable at second base, and he filled in on occasion at shortstop and third, but his defense wasn’t enough of an asset to outweigh his struggles at the plate.

Arroyo will have the chance to sign with a new club this offseason. While his 2023 campaign was a disappointment, he is still just 28 years old and one year removed from a solid performance in 2022. Given his defensive versatility – he can play all four infield positions, plus the outfield corners – he should draw some interest in free agency.

AL Postseason Injury Notes: Buxton, Raley, Hernández

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As expected, Byron Buxton will not be available for the Wild Card round of the 2023 MLB postseason. The Twins revealed their postseason roster on Tuesday morning, and the All-Star outfielder/DH was a notable omission. Buxton has not played in a major league game since August 1, although he attempted a couple of brief rehab stints at Triple-A in August and September. The former Gold Glover is dealing with a strained hamstring in addition to ongoing trouble with his right knee.

Reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) noticed Buxton wasn’t on the field yesterday for a team workout, which was a strong indication he wouldn’t be ready to play on Tuesday. Presumably, he will continue to prepare in hopes he can rejoin the team later in October, should the Twins advance.

In happier news, both Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa were named to the postseason roster. Neither had played since mid-September. Correa confirmed on Monday he would be ready to go for the Wild Card round, but Lewis was less optimistic. Thankfully for Minnesota, the two-time All-Star and the rookie sensation have both been cleared to play. The Twins could use all hands on deck as they look to break their 18-game postseason losing streak.

In other injury news from the AL postseason field…

  • In unfortunate but not entirely surprising news, Luke Raley has been left off the Rays’ roster for the first round of the playoffs. The breakout slugger for Tampa Bay hasn’t played since September 20 after suffering a cervical strain a few days prior. The team could surely use his lefty bat against the Rangers, but with limited space on the postseason roster, the Rays weren’t going to rush him back until he could contribute on a daily basis (according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). In better news for Tampa Bay, Jose Siri will be available for the Wild Card round. The power-hitting center fielder hasn’t played since he fractured his hand on September 11.
  • Right-handed reliever Jonathan Hernández has been left off the Rangers’ roster for the Wild Card round as he nurses a shoulder injury. In 33 games this year, he pitched to a 5.40 ERA and a 4.11 SIERA in 31 2/3 innings. However, he looked much better in September following an optional assignment to Triple-A, posting a 2.89 ERA and a 2.67 SIERA in eight appearances. In other Rangers news, Ezequiel Duran has also been left off the roster, although not for injury-related reasons. The young utility player started the season off strong but struggled down the stretch, slashing .206/.229/.265 over the final month of the year.

The Opener: Postseason Rosters, Game Two Starters, Angels Press Conference

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As the postseason officially kicks off this afternoon, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:

1. Postseason rosters to be revealed

All eight teams playing in the upcoming Wild Card round will announce their rosters for the first series of the playoffs. While expanded rosters in September allow teams to carry up to 28 players (max. 14 pitchers), postseason rosters revert back to a limit of 26 (max. 13 pitchers).

Any player who was on his current team’s 40-man roster (or 60-day injured list) as of 11:59 PM ET on August 31 is eligible to play in the postseason. In addition, a player who was in the organization prior to that deadline (but not on the 40-man roster or 60-day IL) can be added to the postseason roster via petition to the commissioner’s office if he is subbing in for a teammate on the IL who has already served the minimum amount of time required for activation.

2. Game two starter announcements

The pitching matchups are all set for game one of each Wild Card series, and while most managers have already revealed their game two starters as well, the Brewers and Rangers still have an important decision to make before Wednesday.

In the AL, Sonny Gray will toe the rubber for the Twins in game two against José Berríos of the Blue Jays, while Zach Eflin will start for the Rays against the Rangers. On the Senior Circuit, Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Phillies, facing off against Braxton Garrett of the Marlins, while D-backs ace Zac Gallen will take on the Brewers.

The Brewers have yet to name a replacement for Brandon Woodruff, who was ruled out for the Wild Card round yesterday with a right shoulder injury. Freddy Peralta is the most likely candidate, but manager Craig Counsell could opt to separate his righties with the southpaw Wade Miley, especially if Peralta was already preparing for a game three start.

As for the Rangers, it seems like little more than a formality that manager Bruce Bochy has yet to announce Nathan Eovaldi as the game two starter. While Eovaldi has looked the worse for wear in September since coming off the IL, his track record of regular and postseason success speaks for itself. Dane Dunning would be on short rest for a Wednesday game after starting on Sunday. After that, the team’s remaining options would be Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford, both of whom spent most of September pitching out of the bullpen.

3. Perry Minasian to hold press conference

Angels GM Perry Minasian will address the media over Zoom on Tuesday to discuss the team’s brand-new managerial opening. The team announced yesterday that manager Phil Nevin will not return in 2024. As Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports, the Angels will begin the search for a new skipper straight away, and presumably, Minasian will talk about the hiring process later today.

The fact that Minasian is hosting this end-of-year press conference is a good sign that he’ll be keeping his job next season. Like Nevin, Minasian was on the hot seat after the Angels failed to make the postseason for the third consecutive season under his leadership. He is believed to be under contract through 2024. While contracts and extensions for executives aren’t always announced publicly, Minasian signed a four-year deal with Los Angeles ahead of the 2021 season.

Angels Part Ways With Phil Nevin

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The Angels are making a managerial change. As first reported by Sam Blum of the Athletic (on Twitter), the club has decided not to retain Phil Nevin, whose one-year contract expired at season’s end. General manager Perry Minasian is scheduled to hold a press conference tomorrow, which appears to indicate he’ll retain his position.

Nevin spent a season and a half at the helm. The 52-year-old took over on an interim basis when the club dismissed Joe Maddon in June 2022. At the end of that season, the Halos signed him to a one-year extension and removed the interim tag. It essentially served as a trial run for Nevin, who’d only joined Maddon’s coaching staff heading into the ’22 campaign.

Unfortunately for Nevin and the organization, the 2023 season played out in largely the same disappointing fashion as it had in prior years. Los Angeles made a run at competing in their final season with Shohei Ohtani under arbitration control. They started reasonably well, playing slightly above .500 ball in each of the first four months. An 8-3 run coming out of the All-Star Break led the front office to push further in a win-now direction, dealing top prospect Edgar Quero as part of a package for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. That pushed the Halos past the luxury tax barrier for the first time in two decades.

Almost immediately after that deal, the Halos’ postseason expectations crumbled. They lost seven straight from deadline day onwards, burying them in the standings. By the end of August, the Angels had placed a host of veterans (Giolito and López included) on waivers in hopes of dipping back below the tax threshold. It remains unclear if that effort was successful. Los Angeles would go just 17-36 in the season’s final two months, concluding with a 73-89 record that exactly matched last year’s mark. They dropped to fourth place in the AL West.

On the heels of that kind of collapse, it’s not surprising to see the team make a managerial change — particularly with Nevin’s brief contract having already expired. At the same time, it’s hard to know how much of the blame falls on the manager. The Halos have rapidly churned through dugout leaders without success. Nevin was their fourth manager since 2018 alone.

Longtime skipper Mike Scioscia stepped down at the end of the ’18 campaign. Brad Ausmus was at the helm for 2019. The Angels fired him when Maddon became available, but he only made it through two and a half seasons. None of those skippers oversaw even one winning record. The Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015 and are tied with the Tigers for the longest active playoff drought at nine years.

That’s made worse by an uncertain, arguably bleak, future. The Angels face the potential loss of Ohtani this offseason. Even if they manage to re-sign him on what’d almost certainly be the largest contract in major league history, he’s unlikely to pitch for all of next season. Mike Trout played one game from July 4 onward due to a hamate fracture. Anthony Rendon’s backloaded contract pays him $38MM annually for three more years. The farm system is among the thinnest in MLB, as the Angels have aggressively pushed players to the majors and traded prospect talent in order to address short-term deficiencies on the roster.

The Halos aren’t devoid of positives, of course. Trout remains one of the game’s best hitters when healthy, even if his production took a step back from MVP level to merely excellent. Shortstop Zach Neto and catcher Logan O’Hoppe look like regulars. Nolan Schanuel had an impressive rookie showing considering he jumped to the majors within a month of being drafted out of Florida Atlantic, where he was generally facing mid-major college pitching. He’ll eventually need to demonstrate more power, but running a .402 on-base percentage through 29 major league contests within that context is remarkable. Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers remain promising controllable rotation pieces.

Overall, that’s still a below-average collection of organizational talent. The Angels face an uphill battle ascending beyond any of Houston, Texas or Seattle in the AL West — particularly if Ohtani were to land elsewhere. It’ll be a challenging position for whomever the Halos tab to lead the dugout. The Angels join the Mets and Giants as teams that have moved on from their manager in recent days. The Guardians will need to replace Terry Francona — who has all but officially announced his retirement — leaving four current vacancies around the league.

As for Nevin, he should be able to find a position on another major league staff this winter. While his initial foray into major league managing wasn’t successful, the former infielder has a decade and a half of coaching experience. He previously managed in the Tigers’ and Diamondbacks’ systems and has been on a big league staff since 2017. Nevin spent a year as the third base coach for the Giants, held the same position with the Yankees for five seasons, and was the Halos’ third base coach before replacing Maddon.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rich Hill Considering Joining Team Midway Through 2024 Season

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Veteran left-hander Rich Hill heads back to the open market in a few weeks. Despite a rough second half, he’d at least find minor league offers as he looks to extend his MLB career to a 20th year.

Hill might not sign over the winter, however. While he’d previously expressed an intent to play in 2024, the 43-year-old (44 in March) now tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune he’s giving some thought to waiting until midway through the campaign before joining a new team.

It’s an atypical tack but one Hill has considered before. Last August, he told Rob Bradford of WEEI he was thinking about something similar for the 2023 season. The southpaw didn’t ultimately pursue it — he signed an $8MM deal with the Pirates just after Christmas — but that possibility is back on the table this winter.

There are a few reasons behind Hill’s decision-making. The most straightforward one is health. MLB’s oldest active player, Hill conceded to Acee he has “a pretty good gauge and a monitor on my body” and considers “half a season … much more palatable than a full season.” Hill also pointed to a desire to spend more time with his family, noting that he’d like to watch his 12-year-old son play during his final year of Little League baseball next spring. By waiting until midseason, he’d also have a chance to survey the competitive landscape and look to land a spot with a playoff contender.

Hill’s performance also suggests he could be better suited for a lighter role. His production dipped in the second half, especially after a deadline trade from Pittsburgh to San Diego. Hill carried a 4.76 ERA through 22 starts with the Bucs, reasonable production for a fifth or sixth starter. He was tagged for 8.23 earned runs per nine during his two months in Southern California, serving up eight homers in only 27 1/3 frames of work.

The Padres knocked Hill out of the rotation after five starts. They placed him on waivers in an unsuccessful attempt to shed the last few weeks of his salary. He remained in their bullpen after going unclaimed, working mostly low-leverage relief. Hill found more success in a very limited look in that capacity, turning in a 2.25 ERA with an above-average 26.5% strikeout rate in his final four appearances.

Despite the solid last few games, Hill’s subpar results early in his time with San Diego contributed to a lackluster 5.41 ERA through 146 1/3 frames. That’s more than a run higher than last season’s 4.27 figure and his highest mark since his remarkable late-career resurgence with the 2015 Red Sox.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from by our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about the postseason, discussing a past transaction, or a forward-looking question to the offseason trade and free agent markets — we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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The A’s spent the 2023 season more focused on relocating from Oakland to Las Vegas than on attempting to compete. They’ll finish with one of the six worst records of any team in the past 20 seasons. It’ll be another bleak offseason for a fan base that feels betrayed by ownership and has little to look forward to before the team’s likely departure.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2024 commitments: $10MM

Total long-term commitments: $10MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-Tender Candidates: Newcomb, Pruitt, Perez, Rios

Free Agents

Just as A’s brass has spent much of the past year focused on their attempted relocation to Las Vegas, the forthcoming offseason will further center around that move. The other 29 owners will vote on the Athletics’ move to Vegas between Nov. 14-16 — a vote that needs 75% approval and is widely expected to pass with little to no issue. The A’s will then turn their attention to securing funding, formalizing vendor contracts and other steps necessary to begin construction of their reported Las Vegas ballpark, with an eye toward finalizing the move in 2027. The A’s could share Oracle Park with the Giants from 2025 until the new facility is built. At this point, ownership is intent on moving away from the team’s longtime home. Any fans clinging to hope of some kind of sale of the team and reversal of course had those hopes dashed last month when chairman John Fisher plainly indicated he has no interest in selling the club.

All the while, the on-field product has suffered. The Athletics have been “rebuilding” for the past two years, though there’s virtually no Major League talent that’s been established despite trading away the core of a team that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019, won the AL West in the shortened 2020 season (36-24) and won 86 games in 2021.

Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Sean Murphy, Lou Trivino, A.J. Puk, Cole Irvin and Sam Moll have all been traded. The only fruits of those trades to blossom at the MLB level so far have been lefty JP Sears (4.54 ERA in a team-leading 172 1/3 innings this season) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who lead the AL with 67 steals but batted just .254/.309/.345. Catcher Shea Langeliers popped 22 home runs and played strong defense in his first full MLB season, but his overall .205/.368/.413 batting line was well shy of even the league average. Arguably the best player to come out of the rebuild has been first baseman Ryan Noda, whom the A’s selected in last December’s Rule 5 Draft.

Had the A’s focused solely on lower-minors talent as part of this rebuilding effort, perhaps the lack of MLB contributors would be explainable. That hasn’t been the case. The A’s have largely targeted players in the upper minors. That strategy has worked for them in the past, but the collection of Kyle Muller, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, Cristian Pache, Joey Estes, Kevin Smith, Adam Oller, Adrian Martinez, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead has generally struggled in the Majors. Pache, Oller and Logue aren’t even in the organization anymore. Pache was traded to the Phillies for minor league reliever Billy Sullivan, who walked 52 hitters in 57 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. Oller and Logue were lost on waivers after being designated for assignment.

The A’s have four players on Baseball America’s top 100 list at the moment, but none of the four were acquired from the slate of trades that constitute the current rebuild. Darell Hernaiz, acquired from the Orioles for Irvin and ranked ninth among Oakland prospects at both Baseball America and MLB.com, is the top-ranked yet-to-debut talent produced by the rebuild. BA ranked Oakland’s farm system 24th among the sport’s 30 teams in mid-August. MLB.com ranked them 26th. For a team that’s torn down an entire perennial contender via a series of aggressive trades netting largely upper-level minor league talent, the results should be unacceptable.

Some of the fire sale continued on over the summer, with Moll going to the Reds and offseason signees Shintaro Fujinami (Orioles) and Jace Peterson (D-backs) also being shipped out. Had Oakland’s other offseason veteran pickups — Trevor May (free agent), Aledmys Diaz (free agent), Jesus Aguilar (free agent) and Manny Pina (Murphy trade) — performed better, they’d surely have been shipped out, too. Things didn’t play out that way. Aguilar and Pina were both released over the summer. Diaz had the worst season of his career and is signed through 2024. May rebounded after spending time on the IL with anxiety early in the year but is now a free agent.

The long-running sale could continue this winter. However, because the A’s haven’t developed much talent or signed anyone who’s been particularly productive, they’re running low on names to dangle.

Right-hander Paul Blackburn posted a mid-4.00s ERA but with a more frequently used slider and uptick in velocity that helped him turn in a career-high strikeout rate. With two years of club control remaining and an arbitration trade looming, there’s a very good chance he’ll be moved, even if the return won’t be franchise-altering. First baseman/outfielder Seth Brown had a terrible first half but posted a more respectable .235/.301/.432 slash from July onward. Brown swatted 25 homers with the ’22 A’s and has shown good power against right-handed pitching in his career (.237/.305/.471, .234 ISO). A team looking for an affordable lefty half of a first base/outfield platoon could show interest. Again, the return wouldn’t be all that strong.

Aside from that pairing, there aren’t many obvious trade candidates. Brent Rooker, 29 in November, had a breakout year after being picked up off waivers, though it was a wildly uneven season overall. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in April, excellent in July and September, roughly average in August, and well below average in both May and June. On the whole, he hit .246/.329/.488 with 30 home runs but a 32.7% strikeout rate and shaky defense in the outfield corners. A 30-homer bat with four years of club control remaining could draw interest though, and the A’s aren’t in position to turn away interest on anyone who’s exhausted multiple years of team control.

With virtually nothing in the way of established talent on the roster, it should come as no surprise to hear that the Athletics’ payroll is practically blank. Diaz’s $8MM salary is the only guaranteed contract for a player still on the roster. The A’s will also send $2MM to the D-backs as part of the Peterson trade. Their arb class consists of more non-tender candidates than locks to return, and the players to whom they do tender contracts (e.g. Blackburn, Brown) could well be traded.

That should set the stage for some degree of free agent spending, although as last offseason showed, it’s not really something for A’s fans to get excited about. Oakland isn’t going to commit the necessary resources to any productive, big-name free agents. Even most free agents in the second, third and fourth tiers of the market will likely have little interest in signing on for what is assured to be a non-competitive season played in front of even more sparse crowds than usual. Those same factors led to a 2022-23 slate of signings that was comprised of utilitymen for whom they probably overpaid (Diaz, Peterson) and injury/NPB/KBO rolls of the dice (May, Fujinami, Aguilar, Drew Rucinski).

Assuming more of the same this winter, the market has several rebound hopefuls who can play multiple positions — thus accommodating the Athletics’ general lack of established position players — who can likely be signed at a low cost. Names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Paul DeJong, Brian Anderson, Adam Frazier, Eduardo Escobar and old friend Joey Wendle all come to mind. On the pitching side of things, names like Jake Odorizzi, Julio Teheran and Martin Perez could be in Oakland’s price range.

As bleak as things look in Oakland, there are a few spots on the diamond where they appear largely set. Noda had a tough finish to the season but still wound up with a .229/.364/.406 batting line and 16 home runs in 495 plate appearances. He’s not going to hit for much average with a 34.3% strikeout rate, but his massive 15.6% walk rate and above-average power will keep him productive enough to remain in the lineup (and give him a very vintage “Moneyball” Athletics vibe).

At second base, former second-rounder Zack Gelof debuted and turned in one of the strongest showings of any American League rookie in 2023. His performance might’ve gone largely under the radar, given that it came in just 69 games for a historically bad A’s team, but he slashed .267/.337/.504 with 14 home runs, 20 doubles, a triple and 14 steals in 300 plate appearances. Strikeouts are a concern (27.3%), but Gelof walks, hits for power, runs well and played good defense. He has the look of a clearly above-average regular and was far and away the brightest spot on this year’s team. He’s controlled for six more seasons.

Behind the plate, Oakland will likely give another look to Langeliers, whose glove and power are MLB-caliber but whose hit tool was lacking. Langeliers chased off the plate far too often and popped the ball up to the infield way too often when he did make contact (27 times). He still maintained strong exit velocity and hard-hit rates despite that penchant for harmless pop flies, but his work at the dish remains a work in progress. Fellow backstop Tyler Soderstrom is one of the sport’s top offensive prospects but struggled on both sides of the ball. An inexpensive free agent could join this mix.

In the outfield, Ruiz will get another look in center after stealing 67 bases, but he’ll need to improve his offense to remain in the lineup. The lackluster production at the plate and blistering speed are reminiscent of early-career Billy Hamilton, but Ruiz is nowhere near that caliber of defender, so he’ll need to improve either his general offensive output or his glovework to be a credible regular. Former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday, acquired from the Marlins for Puk, hit .195/.310/.355 but posted huge numbers in a smaller sample at Triple-A. Lawrence Butler’s first 129 plate appearances didn’t go well. All three will get more chances in 2024 — Ruiz in particular — but adding a low-cost outfielder like Travis Jankowski, Joey Gallo or Hunter Renfroe (to name a few speculative examples) seems feasible.

Some type of addition on the left side of the infield also seems likely, whether that’s buying low on a trade for someone who’s been squeezed out of his current organization (e.g. Nick Senzel) or signing more utility infield types. None of Nick Allen, Jordan Diaz, Kevin Smith and Jonah Bride have been able to stake a claim to a long-term job at either third base or shortstop. Much of that group will be given more chances, but Allen and Smith have struggled in multiple seasons now. Hernaiz could factor into the left side mix at some point midseason after a strong showing in the upper minors.

The pitching staff doesn’t create much more room for optimism. Blackburn and Sears both turned in passable performances, but the former is perhaps the team’s top remaining trade candidate, as previously mentioned. Top prospect Mason Miller impressed in a few short looks but has been oft-injured throughout his minor league career and spent much of the season on the big league injured list.

There’s a huge number of in-house candidates to take rotation jobs, but most have pitched poorly and/or been hurt in multiple MLB auditions to date. Muller, Waldichuk, Medina, Estes, Adrian Martinez, Freddy Tarnok and Joe Boyle are among the options on the 40-man roster. Journeyman southpaw Sean Newcomb could be in the mix as well, if he survives the winter on the 40-man after undergoing knee surgery recently. Waldichuk finished out the season decently and probably has the inside track among this bunch.

Somehow, there’s even less certainty in the bullpen. Dany Jimenez is the most experienced reliever slated to return. His 3.43 ERA in 57 2/3 innings over the past two seasons is solid, but he’s also walked 13.4% of his opponents during that time. Zach Jackson, who missed most of the year with a flexor strain, has a similarly impressive ERA but ugly walk rate. Waiver pickup Richard Lovelady might have done enough in 23 1/3 innings to earn himself a decent chance at a spot in 2024, but his season ended in July to a forearm strain.

It’s unlikely the A’s make any high-profile additions, but the dearth of quality arms and lack of anything resembling a big league pitching staff likely points to at least a few veteran additions. The A’s could dangle the ninth inning to a veteran looking for a bounceback season, as they did with May last winter. It’ll be a low bar for the 2024 staff to clear. Despite playing their home games in MLB’s most pitcher-friendly stadium, A’s hurlers ranked 29th in the Majors in ERA (5.48), 26th in strikeout rate (20.4%), last in walk rate (10.9%) and 27th in homers per nine innings (1.35).

This offseason will represent one of the darkest chapters in franchise history for an increasingly tortured A’s fan base. It appears all but certain that the team will be leaving the Bay within the next few years, and the 2024 campaign could represent the final year they play home games at the Coliseum. Yet lifelong fans hoping to enjoy perhaps the final year of their beloved Green & Gold at the Coliseum won’t see that appreciation returned by an ownership group that has no interest in competing between now and the time the team moves to Las Vegas. The A’s will spend some money on free agents, if only to ensure they retain their status as a revenue-sharing recipient, but they’ll also probably trade away a few of the familiar faces remaining on the roster.

The A’s posted winning records in 15 of Billy Beane’s 25 years atop the baseball operations hierarchy and never had more than three consecutive losing years, despite frequent rebuilds and perennial payroll constraints. Despite that success — including the aforementioned 97-win seasons in 2018-19 and the 2020 division title — Fisher has suggested that a winning franchise simply isn’t feasible in Oakland. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, and one that appears to be entering its final years while leaving the few fans who remain high and dry with little reason for optimism.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an A’s-centric chat on 10-03-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Big Hype Prospects: AFL Sleepers Edition

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With the postseason looming, our prospect attention shifts out west where the Arizona Fall League is set to begin this evening. The rosters include several notable prospects. They’re joined by the usual smattering untouted, statistically effective players. Today, let’s skip the big names and focus on the guys fighting for recognition. Those with long memories will recall Edouard Julien’s emphatic AFL performance. “Big Hype” can be built in Arizona.

First, let’s back up and think about Julien’s platform last season. He played well at Double-A as a 23-year-old. In the past, that was on the old side of age-appropriate. Now, it’s just flat-out old for the level. A 23-year-old either dominates Double-A or isn’t considered a prospect (there are exceptions). He was arguably the top player in the AFL last season (Heston Kjerstad won the MVP). Julien went on to post a 2.8 WAR debut in the Majors over 408 plate appearances. High BABIPs are a key component of his success.

Notably, defense was and remains a concern with Julien. There are always a few players who slide under the radar because they have a good-not-great bat married to defensive concerns.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Damiano Palmegiani, 23, 3B, TOR (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 557 PA, 23 HR, 7 SB, .255/.364/.478

There’s some surface commonality between Palmegiani and Julien. They’re both disciplined hitters who produced big league-caliber exit velocities. Scouting reports go out of their way to question the defensive aspects of Palmegiani’s game. He mostly played first base at Triple-A after spending most of the season as the starting Double-A third baseman. Palmegiani also has a shaky hit tool. When he connects, it tends to be well-struck. However, between the discipline and a moderate swinging strike rate, there’s a chance nearly half his plate appearances will end without a batted ball. Barring a profile change, he’ll need high BABIPs just like Julien. Palmegiani is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Carter Baumler, 21, P, BAL (A)
(CPX/A) 17 IP, 11.12 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 3.18 ERA

While we don’t usually watch the AFL for pitchers, Baumler is an exception. A fifth-round pick in the abbreviated 2020 draft, Baumler’s career has been waylaid by injuries, mostly to his shoulder. He managed to return to the mound in late July and even faced 16 batters in his final regular season outing on September 7. He was once viewed as a future Top 100 prospect candidate. With health, he’s young enough to get back on track. He features a well-designed fastball-curve combo. He also shows a slider and changeup, both of which are in want of further development. Baumler is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Brainer Bonaci, 20, 2B/SS, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 350 PA, 11 HR, 7 SB, .297/.354/.464

Bonaci is on the Ramon Urias utility track. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter. I figure there aren’t many scenarios in which he’s left off the Red Sox roster. Bonaci is a well-regarded fielder, but he’s slow-footed. He’s likely limited to second and third base down the line. His bat is trending in a league-average direction. Given he’s a switch-hitter, the total sum is a useful player who fits well on any roster.

Zach Dezenzo, 23, 3B, HOU (AA)
(A+/AA) 410 PA, 18 HR, 22 SB, .304/.383/.531

Early in the season, Dezenzo was among the top minor league performers by wRC+. After beating up on High-A pitchers, he performed merely decently against Double-A arms. Even so, at least one source of mine believes Dezenzo is Top 100 prospect material. Another source says he has a hole in his swing. While there’s no question about the quality of his contact, the frequency of his contact could leave him in the Quad-A bubble. He’s likely in the AFL to work on defense. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Jakob Marsee, 22, OF, SD (AA)
(A+/AA) 568 PA, 16 HR, 46 SB, .274/.413/.428

Marsee reminds me of a lower-impact version of Julien, one whose future big league role will depend upon making good on the few opportunities he’s given. That he’ll receive such opportunities is of little doubt. He’s a disciplined hitter with a high rate of contact. As a lefty, he’s also on the strong side of any platoon considerations. Defensively, he’s considered fringy as a center fielder. He doesn’t have quite enough pop to excite evaluators about a corner outfield role. Still, he profiles as somebody who could post offensive numbers not unlike Julien’s debut. That’s a Major Leaguer, even if we’re only talking about a platoon bat on the Athletics. He’s likely in the AFL to generate trade interest. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Three More

Hao-Yu Lee, DET (20): You might recognize Lee from this past trade deadline when he was dealt from Philly to Detroit for Michael Lorenzen. A quad strain limited him to 32 post-trade plate appearances. Lee will be looking to make a strong impression on his new employers. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Kala’i Rosario, MIN (21): Rosario is one of the most accomplished power hitters in the AFL this season. He’s coming off a 21-homer campaign in High-A built around hard contact and plenty of pulled fly balls. He cut down on his swing-and-miss this year by being more patient. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz should be the odds-on favorite to lead the AFL in homers. He delivered 33 dingers this season split between Low- and High-A. With a strong AFL, he’s a fringe Top 100 prospect candidate. He’s also not Rule 5 eligible.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Ehire Adrianza Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Adrianza has elected free agency, reports Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

OCTOBER 1: Adrianza cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster, according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (X link).  There isn’t yet any word on whether or not Adrianza has accepted the assignment.

SEPTEMBER 25: The Braves have reinstated Ehire Adrianza from the 60-day injured list and designated the infielder for assignment.  Adrianza was initially placed on the 10-day IL due to elbow inflammation at the start of May, but then suffered a shoulder strain that has elongated his stay on the IL to almost the entire 2023 campaign.

Adrianza has only appeared in five MLB games during this lost season, though even that small amount of time on Atlanta’s active roster locked in a $1MM salary, as per the terms of the minor league contract he signed with the Braves last winter.  Adrianza had previously been a part of the Braves’ championship team in 2021, and after signing a big league free agent deal with the Nationals during the 2021-22 offseason, was subsequently dealt back to Atlanta at the 2022 trade deadline.

After recovering from his injury, Adrianza returned to the field to play in 11 minor league rehab games in September, and thus the Braves had to a make decision about his roster status.  Today’s transaction indicates that Atlanta feels good about its 40-man roster as the playoffs loom, leaving Adrianza as the odd man out in DFA limbo.  Chances are that Adrianza clears waivers and he has more than enough MLB service time to elect free agency in the event of an outright assignment.  This means he might opt to get an early jump on the free agent market, or Adrianza could potentially also re-sign with the Braves on a new minor league deal, staying in the organization as an emergency option for a postseason roster spot in the event of injuries.

Known for his multi-positional versatility, Adrianza has appeared in each of the last 11 Major League seasons, playing 616 games with the Twins, Giants, Nationals, and Braves.  The switch-hitter has mostly been a bench or part-time option throughout his career, with a slash line of .238/.308/.352 over 1550 plate appearances.

Sam Kennedy On The Search For The Red Sox’ Next GM

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Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy addressed members of the media (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive) on Monday, alongside manager Alex Cora. The primary topic of discussion was the team’s search for a new general manager, after chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was fired in September.

Kennedy made it clear that he is actively seeking a new GM, and he hopes to begin interviews in the coming days. That said, he isn’t working under a deadline. In other words, the team might not have a new head baseball executive when free agency begins, or even by the start of the Winter Meetings in December. That could prohibit the Red Sox from making an early splash this offseason, but it doesn’t mean Kennedy is wrong to take things slow. The team is surely hoping to choose a new baseball operations leader who will stick around longer than a few years and lead the team to repeated success. Suffice it to say, that’s not a decision to make lightly.

The Red Sox will consider both internal and external candidates for the position, Kennedy explained. Internal options could include assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira, and Michael Groopman, who are helping to oversee baseball operations in the interim. However, don’t expect Cora or former GM Brian O’Halloran to step into the role. Cora has already expressed that he doesn’t feel ready for such a promotion, while O’Halloran, who served as GM under Bloom, has already accepted a new job as executive vice president of baseball operations.

As for external candidates, Cotillo suggests that Phillies GM Sam Fuld and Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes are in the conversation, as are Diamondbacks assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes, Blue Jays vice president of baseball strategy (and former Astros GM) James Click, and Twins GM Thad Levine. Meanwhile, one external candidate to rule out is Theo Epstein. He is a popular choice amongst fans, but Kennedy has already shut down any speculation about a reunion with the former Red Sox GM.

All Kennedy would say on Monday was that he has a “targeted list” of candidates, and he is currently seeking permission from other clubs to interview some of their front office personnel.

In other news from the press conference, Cora told reporters that the Red Sox coaching staff is the area of the team that needs to make the biggest improvement entering next season. Kennedy didn’t have much to reveal about potential turnover on the coaching staff, other than to say that conversations on that subject will occur in due time.

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