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Connor Overton Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Reds righty Connor Overton’s exploratory elbow surgery ultimately resulted in him requiring Tommy John surgery, manager David Bell announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). It’s a worst-case scenario for the 29-year-old righty, who’d spent a month on the injured list with an elbow strain but experienced a setback that led to this morning’s operation. He’ll miss the rest of the 2023 season and a good portion of the 2024 campaign as well.

The 29-year-old Overton opened the season in the Reds’ rotation but was blasted for 14 runs on 19 hits and seven walks in just 11 innings of work through three starts. It was a far cry from the 2022 season, when Overton logged a 2.73 ERA in 33 innings of work across six appearances (four starts) for Cincinnati. An 11.3% strikeout rate and tiny .204 average on balls in play always made some regression likely, but the extent of his 2023 struggle was still alarming. The revelation of a major elbow injury quite possibly helps explain some of Overton’s immense struggles.

Selected in the 15th round of the 2014 draft by the Marlins, Overton has spent time with six MLB organizations — including big league work with the Reds, Pirates and Blue Jays — and also suited up for the Lancaster Barnstormers of the independent Atlantic League. In 59 1/3 big league innings, he’s posted a 4.85 ERA with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.

Overton might’ve gotten a lengthier look in the Reds’ rotation this season, as Cincinnati entered the year relying heavily on young arms with minimal MLB track records. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all had some success in last year’s rookie campaigns, but each has struggled to varying extents in his sophomore effort. Veteran Luis Cessa opened the season in the rotation, but he’s already been designated for assignment and released. Offseason signee Luke Weaver has made six starts and currently sports a 6.54 ERA. Cincinnati has recently turned to journeyman right-hander Ben Lively for a pair of starts and is also taking its first look at prospect Brandon Williamson. Suffice it to say, there would’ve been ample opportunity for a healthy Overton, whether he struggled or not.

Instead, he’ll spend the remainder of the season on the injured list. It’s a small consolation when considering that the surgery cost him an opportunity to establish himself as a credible big league pitcher, but he’ll accrue Major League service time and pay for the remainder of the season. That’ll take him past two years of service. Overton won’t be arbitration-eligible next winter, but his spot on the 40-man roster will still be in jeopardy, as the Reds would have to carry him on the roster all winter before they could recoup that spot by placing him on the 60-day IL in spring training 2024. If he’s outrighted off the roster at season’s end, it’s certainly possible they’d have interest in re-signing him on a minor league pact.

Rockies Release Fernando Abad

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The Rockies have released lefty Fernando Abad, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Colorado had designated the 37-year-old veteran for assignment over the weekend.

Abad appeared in three games with the Rox, tossing a combined 1 2/3 innings of scoreless ball between his first two outings before being tagged for three runs in one inning during his final appearance. He’d signed with the club on a minor league deal over the winter, and he opened the year pitching brilliantly in a hitter-friendly Triple-A setting; through 16 frames with the Rockies’ Albuquerque affiliate in the Pacific Coast League, Abad allowed just three runs (1.69 ERA) on nine hits and two walks with 20 strikeouts. He whiffed 34.5% of his opponents against just a 3.4% walk rate.

The Rockies were the eighth big league team for the well-traveled Abad, who’s now pitched in parts of 11 Major League seasons. His big league work has been infrequent over the past four years — just 33 1/3 total innings — but Abad was a quality and heavily used bullpen arm from 2013-17 with the Nats, A’s, Twins and Red Sox. During that time, he pitched to a 3.13 ERA in 233 frames, and on the whole he carries a career 3.82 ERA with 48 holds, two saves, a 19.4% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate in 351 big league innings.

The Rockies could’ve tried to pass Abad through outright waivers, though he’d either have been claimed or had the ability to reject his assignment based on Major League service time. (He reached seven total years of service during his brief stint with Colorado.) He’ll now carry that excellent start to his season in Triple-A back to the market as he looks for other opportunities.

The Opener: Hendricks, Braves, Jansen

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As the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Hendricks slated to return:

After nearly a year away from the major league mound rehabbing from shoulder surgery, Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks is slated to be activated from the injured list to start tonight’s game against the Mets. A key cog in the rotation during the Cubs’ last competitive window, Hendricks was among the most reliable starters in the game from 2016-2020 as he posted a 3.00 ERA (143 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP. Since the start of the 2021 season, however, Hendricks has managed just 265 1/3 innings of work with severely diminished results. His 4.78 ERA over the past two campaigns is 13% below league average, a far cry the performances that saw him garner Cy Young votes in 2016 and 2020.

The Cubs are surely hoping the last remaining member of the 2016 World Series team will be able to return to form and help solidify a rotation that features a great deal of uncertainty behind Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Drew Smyly. Offseason acquisition Jameson Taillon has struggled to an 8.10 ERA with a 4.93 FIP in 26 2/3 innings, while youngster Hayden Wesneski was recently demoted to Triple-A after posting a 5.03 ERA and 5.92 FIP in eight major league starts. A corresponding move will be required to make room for Hendricks on the active roster before this evening’s game, which will begin at 6:40pm CT.

2. Braves to recall Dodd:

After losing a pair of quality rotation arms in Max Fried and Kyle Wright to long-term injuries, the Braves are set to call up left-hander Dylan Dodd to start tonight’s game against the Phillies. Dodd made his MLB debut earlier this season and has posted a 6.46 ERA in three major league starts with a 5.69 FIP. Dodd has also struggled in Triple-A this season, with a 6.67 ERA in 27 innings of work. Despite those concerning numbers, Dodd and the Braves will hope for a rebound this evening. A corresponding move will be required to make room for Dodd on the active roster.

Should the young lefty continue to struggle, further rotation reinforcements could be just around the corner, as right-hander Michael Soroka continues working his way back to a major league mound for the first time since the 2020 campaign. Of course, Dodd could also follow in the footsteps of young lefty Jared Shuster, who also struggled in his initial call to the big leagues but has posted smoother results in two starts since returning to the Majors earlier this month.

3. Jansen exits with groin issue:

Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen exited yesterday’s game with what the club termed left groin tightness. The injury’s severity is currently unclear, but MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson noted that Tyler Heineman, the only extra catcher on Toronto’s 40-man roster, was removed from a minor league game last night following Jansen’s injury.

In 36 games this season, Jansen has slashed just .207/.273/.413 (86 wRC+), but that includes a dismal 1-for-25 slump to begin the season. Since breaking out of that funk, he’s posted a heartier .250/.314/.510 slash in 105 plate appearances, which lines up reasonably well with last year’s .260/.339/.516 performance. Should Jansen miss time, that would likely mean a return to full-time duties behind the plate for Alejandro Kirk, who has slashed .230/.348/.319 (93 wRC+) in 38 games this season.

Red Sox Move Corey Kluber To Bullpen

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The Red Sox are moving struggling veteran Corey Kluber from the starting rotation to the bullpen, manager Alex Cora told hosts Andy Gresh and Christian Fauria in a radio appearance on WEEI this afternoon (Twitter link). They’ll move back to a five-man rotation consisting of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello for the time being.

Kluber hasn’t made an appearance out of the bullpen since 2013. The 37-year-old signed a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $10MM this offseason, with the hope that he’d provide some stable innings to a group that was teeming with injury risk (Sale, Paxton) and young starters who’ll be on innings limits due to lighter workloads in 2022 (Whitlock, Houck). Things haven’t played out that way at all, however.

Through his first nine starts with Boston, Kluber has been tattooed for a 6.26 ERA. His 88.6 mph average fastball is the lowest of his career, and he’s also sporting career-worst marks in strikeout rate (17.7%), walk rate (9.4%) and HR/9 (2.38). He has just one quality start on the year and has only twice recorded an out in the sixth inning. On average, Kluber’s starts have lasted 4 2/3 frames.

Kluber becomes the second member of the Opening Day rotation to slide into a relief role. The performances from Houck and Bello have also displaced Nick Pivetta, who has started more Red Sox games than any pitcher dating back to 2021 and led the team in innings pitched last season.

Houck, 26, has had some rough starts, though the resulting 4.99 ERA is still superior to what Kluber has managed so far. Houck’s most recent outing — six innings, one run, three hits, two walks, eight punchouts — in particular seemed to cement the decision to move Kluber to a relief role. Overall, while Houck’s ERA is only south of 5.00 by the literal narrowest of margins, he’s shown roughly league-average strikeout and walk rates with a strong 51.8% ground-ball rate and a quality 0.92 HR/9 mark. Houck has struggled with men on base, leading to a well below average 61.8% strand rate, but there are plenty of positives in his overall performance.

Bello, 24, has made seven starts and logged a 4.08 ERA through 35 1/3 frames. He’s been slightly better than average in terms of strikeout and walk rate (23.6% and 7.6%, respectively), and his massive 59% ground-ball rate is among the league’s best. Bello has run into problems with the long ball, serving up homers at nearly double the rate of Houck (1.78 HR/9). He’s managed to strand a whopping 81% of his opponents, which will be tough to maintain, but if he can scale back the frequency of his home runs, the strikeout/walk/ground-ball trifecta should allow him to continue finding success.

It should of course be noted that the move to the bullpen for Kluber isn’t necessarily permanent — nor is Pivetta’s shift to a similar role. Both Sale and especially Paxton remain injury risks, and the Sox likely still want to keep an eye on the innings totals of Whitlock (82 1/3 innings in 2022) and Houck (60 innings). As such, it’s quite likely that there will be additional opportunities in the rotation as the season wears on, though whether it’s Pivetta, Kluber, someone from the farm system or an external addition who’s making those appearances will be dependent on how Kluber and Pivetta perform in relief and whether they remain stretched out in multi-inning roles.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Mets’ Catching Conundrum, Mariners, Diamondbacks

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Episode 8 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Will Sammon of The Athletic to discuss:

  • The Mets’ start to the season (1:44)
  • What they’ll do with Francisco Alvarez and Gary Sanchez once Tomas Nido and Omar Narvaez return from the IL (5:31)
  • Where they could look to improve at the trade deadline (10:18)
  • The mood in their clubhouse as they overcome a slow start to the season (14:24)

Then, Simon is joined by Darragh McDonald of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • What’s going on with the Mariners lineup, and could they move on from Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock? (19:41)
  • Can the Marlins maintain their solid start to the season, and would they consider buying at the deadline? (24:54)
  • What makes the Diamondbacks such a strong team this year? (29:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here
  • Willson Contreras, the Rays’ success, what’s happening with the Astros – listen here
  • White Sox trade candidates, Red Sox options for improvements, managers on the hot seat – listen here

Padres Release Adam Engel

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The Padres have released outfielder Adam Engel, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He had been designated for assignment on the weekend.

Engel, 31, was signed this winter to a major league deal with a $1MM guarantee, just a bit above the $720K minimum for this season. Unfortunately, he suffered a hamstring strain during Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He returned in early May and wasn’t really given any playing time, getting six plate appearances in five games before being designated for assignment recently.

The club had some uncertainty in the outfield coming into the season, as Fernando Tatis Jr. still had 20 games remaining on his suspension from last season. However, he was back in the lineup by the time Engel came off the injured list, joining Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in the outfield. It seems the club prefers to roll with José Azocar as its fourth outfielder and will let Engel walk.

Prior to joining the Padres, Engel had spent his entire career with the White Sox, largely serving as a glove-first outfielder. His career batting line of .224/.279/.349 translates to a 71 wRC+, indicating he’s been 29% worse than league average overall. However, he’s stolen 47 bases and received positive reviews from advanced defensive metrics. In 3715 2/3 innings over 528 career games, he’s accrued 53 Outs Above Average, 20 Defensive Runs Saved and a score of 2.3 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast put his sprint speed in the 92nd percentile last year.

Even if the Padres had tried to pass Engel through outright waivers, he has more than five years of major league service time, giving him the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency. Now that Engel has been released, they will remain on the hook for his salary while allowing another club to sign him for the protated league minimum for any time spent on the active roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Friars pay. He’ll now head to the open market in search of a team in need of a fleet-footed outfielder for its bench.

Carlos Correa Diagnosed With Plantar Fasciitis And Muscle Strain In Left Foot

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Twins shortstop Carlos Correa has been diagnosed with a muscle strain in his left foot arch and plantar fasciitis, per John Shipley of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Correa hasn’t yet been placed on the injured list but it seems like that’s still on the table. “I think we get to Friday and some of our decisions might be made for us,” manager Rocco Baldelli says.

Correa sat out yesterday’s game with a bruised left heel and he had an MRI, per Dan Hayes of MLB.com. Although some inflammation was found, it seemed like a minor issue that could allow him to return in a few days and he sat out today’s contest as well. Now it seems that further testing has found that the issue is a bit more serious than initially thought and the club will have to decide whether to put him officially on the shelf or play shorthanded for a few days.

Many fans will read about Correa’s foot and immediately think of the hoopla that surrounded his free agency this winter when he twice had nine-figure agreements scuttled by health concerns. He and the Giants agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal but they backed out at the last second, leading Correa to pivot to the Mets and a 12-year, $315MM deal. Both of those clubs became wary over the health of Correa’s ankle, though that was in his right leg while this week’s issue is with Correa’s left foot.

When those deals fell through, Correa landed with the Twins on a six-year, $200MM deal with four vesting options that could take the full payout to $270MM over 10 years. The shortstop has scuffled out of the gate here in 2023, currently hitting .213/.302/.396 through 192 plate appearances for a 92 wRC+. That’s well shy of his career output but it’s likely that poor fortune is playing a role, as his .252 batting average on balls in play is well below his .315 career mark.

It would be fair to expect Correa to get better results going forward via positive regression but that might have to wait a bit, depending on how long this foot injury lingers. Though it doesn’t seem like this is especially concerning on its own, the club is dealing with a growing injury problem overall. Infielder/outfielder Joey Gallo missed today’s game with a sore hamstring, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, and the club might want to rest him a few more times. Unlike Correa, Gallo is out to a roaring start this year, hitting 11 home runs already while walking in 14.2% of his plate appearances. That’s led to a .211/.328/.561 batting line and 141 wRC+.

The Twins also have six position players on the injured list, with Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino and Royce Lewis all on the shelf. While the issues of Correa and Gallo seem to be on the minor side, it will continue to test their depth during a time when it’s already being stretched. Since the club was largely undone by injuries in 2022, they will surely be hoping for a bit better luck in that department in the months to come as they look to hang onto their slim lead in the American League Central.

Angels Outright Brett Phillips

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The Angels have sent outfielder Brett Phillips outright to the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he passed through waivers unclaimed after the club designated him for assignment on the weekend.

Phillips, turning 29 next week, was signed this winter to a one-year, $1.2MM deal. He has long been a light-hitting outfielder with value off the bench as a speed-and-defense specialist. The Halos used him in that vein, putting him into 20 contests but sending him to the plate just 16 times. Though he stole three bases and provided his customarily strong glovework, he hit just .077/.250/.077 in those trips to the plate, a drop-off from even his own standards.

For his career, he’s hit .187/.272/.343 in 916 plate appearances dating back to 2017. That amounts to a wRC+ of 70, or 30% below league average. That’s a level that teams have been able to live with given his other traits, as he’s stolen 39 bases and been given excellent grades from all advanced defensive metrics. He has career tallies of 43 Defensive Runs Saved, 34 Outs Above Average and a score of 27.0 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

The Halos went into the season with a regular outfield of Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe and Taylor Ward with Phillips in the fourth outfield role. However, his downturn at the plate coincided with the rise of Mickey Moniak, who hit well in the minors and was recalled a few weeks ago, producing a scorching hot .419/.438/.935 batting line in his 32 plate appearances so far.

Each of the 29 other teams had a chance to grab Phillips off waivers but all declined. He has over three years of major league service time, which technically gives him the right to reject this outright assignment and elect free agency. However, he lacks the five years of service necessary to both reject and retain his salary. Since all the clubs in the league already passed on him at that modest $1.2MM price point, it’s likely that he’ll simply forgo the open market and report to Salt Lake.

Drew Pomeranz Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Padres left-hander Drew Pomeranz underwent “a cleanup surgery in his elbow” yesterday, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, relaying word from manager Bob Melvin. It’s unknown how long this will keep him out of action but the skipper says they are still hopeful for him to return later in the season.

Although Melvin seems to be trying to downplay the procedure, which might well be minor, it’s notable that the lefty’s health is at the forefront yet again. Pomeranz is creeping up on two years since his last major league appearance, which was in August of 2021. It was at that point that he required surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his throwing arm. He was able to begin a rehab assignment one year after that procedure, heading out in August of last year. However, he was shut down due to continued soreness and missed the entire 2022 campaign.

Here in 2023, the club was optimistic about his return but he experienced more inflammation in Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He began another rehab assignment in the middle of April but was shut down yet again after three appearances and transferred to the 60-day injured list.

It’s surely been a frustrating series of events for both Pomeranz and the team. After spending many years as a starter with mixed results, the southpaw seemed to thrive in a move to full-time relief work. In 2019, he had a 5.68 ERA with the Giants, working primarily out of the rotation. He was traded at the deadline to the Brewers who used him exclusively as a reliever, apart from one three-inning start. He had a 2.39 ERA with Milwaukee, striking out an incredible 45% of batters faced.

He reached free agency and the Padres took a chance on that bullpen breakout, signing Pomeranz to a four-year deal that guaranteed him $34MM. The gamble seemed to be paying off for a while, as he posted a combined 1.62 ERA between his 20 appearances in the shortened 2020 season and another 27 the year after. He walked 11.4% of batters faced in that time but stuck out 33.7% and also got grounders at a 45.8% rate.

Unfortunately, the latter half of the deal has been entirely wasted thus far, with Pomeranz missing the 2022 season and all of 2023 to this point. The Padres aren’t in desperate shape in terms of left-handed relief, as each of Josh Hader, Tim Hill and Tom Cosgrove are posting decent results to varying degrees. Nonetheless, it would surely be a welcome development if this recent procedure was able to help Pomeranz finally get over his ongoing arm troubles and get back into form. He’s making a salary of $8MM this year and is a free agent at season’s end.

Reds Select Eduardo Salazar, Designate Silvino Bracho

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The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of pitching prospect Eduardo Salazar from Triple-A Louisville and designated righty Silvino Bracho for assignment in a corresponding move.

Entering the 2023 season, the 25-year-old Salazar was a generally nondescript prospect in the Reds’ system. He’d never cracked the organization’s top 30 at Baseball America and only drew a cursory mention as a potential multi-inning reliever in Eric Longenhagen’s 2022 overview of the Reds’ system over at FanGraphs — due largely to a velocity spike and improvement on his breaking ball.

Following a move from a starting role to short relief, Salazar has flipped the narrative surrounding him in a substantial way in 2023. He’s combined for 17 2/3 innings of 0.51 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A, whiffing a massive 35.2% of his opponents against an outstanding 4.2% walk rate. Salazar hasn’t given up a home run this season and has induced grounders at an enormous 63.2% rate.

Cincinnati relievers rank 10th in the Majors with a 3.72 ERA and are fourth in total innings pitched (193 2/3), thanks largely to a young starting rotation that has struggled to keep runs off the board and pitch deep into games. Reds starters have a 6.29 ERA that ranks second-worst in baseball, and only the Rays — who’ve frequently used openers and bullpen games — have gotten fewer innings from the rotation.

Much of the relief corps’ success is attributable to strong performances from Buck Farmer, Ian Gibaut, Alex Young and especially closer Alexis Diaz. The Reds have also gotten nice contributions from Derek Law and Kevin Herget. On the whole, it’s a collection of journeymen, many of whom are experiencing their first taste of MLB success in simultaneous fashion. That coalescence has proven to be a godsend for the Reds and manager David Bell, but Salazar will hope to join Diaz as a homegrown product and success story for the team’s scouting and player development departments.

Bracho, 30, held opponents scoreless in three of his four outings — the lone exception being a three-run appearance against the Yankees in which he only recorded two outs. Overall, he pitched 5 1/3 innings with the Reds and only allowed two hits, though he walked more batters (five) than he struck out (four).

In 99 1/3 career innings, most of them spent with the D-backs, Bracho has a 4.89 ERA with a 23.7% strikeout rate against a 9.1% walk rate. He’s typically been homer-prone in his career (1.72 HR/9), but he had some success with Arizona in both 2015 and 2019. The Reds will have a week to trade Bracho, pass him through outright waivers, or release him. He has more than three years of Major League service time, so even if he goes unclaimed on waivers, he’d have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

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