The Mets announced this morning that left-hander David Peterson underwent surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip today. The expected recovery timeline for the procedure is six to seven months, which means Peterson is all but certain to open the season on the injured list. A six-month timeline would put him on track for an early May recovery, whereas a seven-month trajectory could push into the summer.
Peterson, 28, had an uneven season in 2023 after what had looked to be a breakout showing the prior year. His 2022 campaign featured 105 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball, as the former first-round pick enjoyed career-best marks in average fastball velocity, strikeout rate and ground-ball rate. He induced grounders at an even higher clip in 2023, but just about every other meaningful rate stat trended in the wrong direction. Peterson finished out the year with a 5.03 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 54.5% grounder rate in 111 frames.
That said, Peterson also enjoyed an excellent second half to the year. A three-week move to the bullpen in mid-July/early August produced 11 innings of 1.64 ERA ball, and when injuries thrust him back into the starting rotation, Peterson looked like a new pitcher. He’d been hammered for a 6.46 ERA through 11 starts to begin the season but closed out the year with a 10-start stretch of a 3.88 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate — numbers that much more closely mirrored his solid ’22 efforts. Command obviously remained an issue for Peterson, but it was a promising end to the season that looked to set him up for another possible look in next year’s rotation.
Any such plans will now be placed on hold as he mends from today’s operation. It’s a notable blow to a thin Mets pitching staff that traded future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at this past summer’s trade deadline. With Peterson shelved, the Mets’ only established options in the rotation are veteran Jose Quintana and righty Kodai Senga, who turned in an outstanding rookie effort this past season. Depth options beyond that pair include Tylor Megill, Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi, but the Mets are clearly lacking in the rotation.
First-year president of baseball operations David Stearns was already likely to place a heavy emphasis on acquiring rotation help this winter. The loss of Peterson for at least a month or two early next year only adds to that need. Pursuing multiple arms — likely at least one who could slot into the top half of the rotation already seemed likely — but there will be an increased need for depth and back-of-the-rotation options now that Peterson is recovering from a notable surgical procedure.
While Peterson’s injury clouds his 2024 outlook, it still seems likely that he’ll be tendered a contract for the upcoming campaign. He’s entering his first arbitration year, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a modest $2MM salary in his first trip through the arb process. Given his remaining three years of club control and remaining minor league option, that’s plenty affordable — particularly for the game’s most deep-pocketed club.
