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The Opener: Orioles, Buxton, Matz

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Who will start today for the Orioles?

The Orioles are looking to secure a four-game series win over the Yankees after winning the first two games but dropping Game 3 last night. With the clubs tied for first in the AL East, the division lead is on the line. Baltimore has yet to announce who will take the mound opposite Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon (2.48 ERA). The most obvious choice would be right-hander Kyle Bradish, who is expected to make his 2024 debut this week after missing the first five weeks of the season with a UCL sprain. The righty enjoyed a breakout 2023 season that saw him post a 2.83 ERA and 3.27 FIP across 30 starts en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting.

Things could get tricky for the Orioles if Bradish isn’t ready to go yet. Recently activated lefty John Means would be on just three days of rest if he took the ball. The same goes for right-hander Albert Suarez. Left-hander Cole Irvin would be on regular rest, but he’s started just one game on regular rest this season and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, allowing two runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Twins.

2. Buxton to undergo MRI:

Oft-injured Twins center fielder Byron Buxton could be staring down another trip to the injured list after he was pulled from yesterday’s game against the White Sox due to a bout of knee soreness. As noted by Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune, Buxton is set to undergo an MRI when the Twins return to Minneapolis today according to manager Rocco Baldelli. Buxton suffered the knee injury on an attempted steal of second base.

Buxton has hit .250/.300/.391 for an essentially average 99 wRC+. Even so, he’d be sorely missed by Minnesota in the event he requires a trip to the injured list. After all, his +3 Outs Above Average this season ranks in the 94th percentile per Statcast, making him a valuable player even with a league-average bat. Should Buxton require a trip to the shelf, the Twins would likely turn to Austin Martin in center field. The youngster hit .226/.294/.371 (93 wRC+) in his first taste of big league action earlier this season but was just optioned to Triple-A to make room for Carlos Correa.

3. Matz to undergo MRI:

Buxton isn’t the only player set to undergo imaging today, as The Athletic’s Katie Woo notes that Cardinals lefty Steven Matz is also set to receive an MRI. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, the news regarding Matz comes on the heels of manager Oli Marmol noting that the lefty has been dealing with lower back tightness since a brutal seven-run, 4 1/3 inning start against the Diamondbacks on April 23.

The issue seemingly impacted Matz during his start in Detroit earlier this week, as his velocity was down while he allowed four runs in 3 1/3 innings of work on just 73 pitches before being removed from the game. Should Matz require a trip to the IL, the Cardinals could turn to lefty Zack Thompson to round out their rotation as they did while Sonny Gray was on the shelf earlier this season. Another option could be to call up a player on the 40-man roster who has not yet made their MLB debut, such as top prospect Sem Robberse, who’s out to a brilliant start in Triple-A.

MLBTR Podcast Mailbag: José Abreu Demoted, The Positional Surplus Myth, Erick Fedde’s Trade Value And More

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • José Abreu agreeing to be optioned by the Astros (2:50)
  • Upcoming knee surgery for Mike Trout of the Angels (5:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Given that a surplus can quickly disappear with injuries, will teams be more reluctant to trade from positions of relative strength? (6:50)
  • When will Jackson Jobe of the Tigers or Junior Caminero of the Rays be called up? (14:30)
  • Is it true that the White Sox can’t pick higher than tenth in next year’s draft? (18:20)
  • What is the current state of Tommy John surgery and longevity of pitchers after going under the knife? (22:00)
  • When can a team trade a recently-signed free agent? (28:50)
  • If Erick Fedde keeps pitching well, what kind of return could the White Sox get for him at the deadline? (30:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The NL Rookie Of The Year Field Is Loaded

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In my subscriber chat last week, a questioner asked which players I'd take as respective Rookies of the Year. While the race in both leagues could be interesting, the picture in the National League seems particularly fascinating. There are 10-15 players who could be legitimate threats for that award, a reflection both of an intriguing level of prospect talent and NL teams' signing of a handful of players out of foreign professional leagues last offseason.

Let's run through what is shaping up to be a strong class.

Jared Jones, Pirates RHP

Jones would be my pick for the most impressive rookie of the season's first month. The Pirates right-hander has followed up an excellent spring with a dominant six MLB starts. He owns a 3.18 ERA over 34 innings while striking out nearly 32% of batters faced. Jones has walked fewer than 4% of his opponents, and while he'll probably have a tough time maintaining quite that level, he's getting opposing hitters to flail aimlessly at stuff off the plate.

Among all major league pitchers with 20+ innings, only Sonny Gray and Jack Flaherty have a better strikeout/walk rate differential. No one is inducing swinging strikes at a higher clip. Jones has surpassed 120 innings in the minors in each of the last two seasons, so he shouldn't be on too strict a workload limit. The only quibble with his performance is an elevated 1.85 HR/9 rate, but the longball wasn't much of an issue in the minors. This didn't come out of nowhere -- the former second-round draftee entered the year as a Top 100 prospect and trendy Rookie of the Year pick -- but it would've been tough to predict this level of immediate dominance.

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Angels Release Aaron Hicks

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The Angels have released Aaron Hicks, per the transaction log at MLB.com. That was the expected course of action once the Halos designated the veteran outfielder for assignment on Monday.

Assuming he clears release waivers, Hicks will become a free agent. That clearly wasn’t the way the Angels envisioned his tenure when they inked him to a major league deal over the winter. With the Yankees still responsible for Hicks’ salaries in the final two years of his contract, the Halos took a league minimum flier to add him to the big league bench. The switch-hitter had turned in a surprising .275/.381/.425 slash in 65 games with the Orioles after being released by New York last May.

The 34-year-old did not maintain that positive form in his month in Orange County. Hicks struck out in 23 of his 63 plate appearances as an Angel. He hit .140/.222/.193 overall, an even colder start than the .188/.263/.261 slash he’d had with the Yankees before his release last season. Despite Hicks’ productive stint in Baltimore, he has a below-average .224/.330/.330 batting line in 828 plate appearances going back to the start of 2022.

One day after designating Hicks for assignment, the Angels lost Mike Trout to a meniscus tear. They signed Kevin Pillar, himself recently DFA by the White Sox, to a major league deal. Pillar will back up the new starting trio of Taylor Ward, Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell in the Angel Stadium outfield.

As was the case for the Angels, any team willing to offer Hicks an MLB roster spot could do so at minimal cost. He’d be paid the prorated $740K league minimum for any time spent in the majors with New York on the hook for the bulk of the money.

White Sox Making Changes In Rotation

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The 6-25 White Sox are shuffling up their rotation mix a bit. Manager Pedro Grifol told the Sox beat yesterday that right-hander Brad Keller would likely move into the rotation in the near future (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com), and he’s now listed as the probable starter Friday. Meanwhile, right-hander Mike Clevinger has made a pair of starts in Triple-A Charlotte since returning on a one-year deal and is likely to join the rotation next week, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Right-hander Erick Fedde has been Chicago’s only above-average starter this season. Lefty Garrett Crochet started brilliantly but has been hit hard of late, ballooning his ERA to just under 6.00. Michael Soroka, Jonathan Cannon, Chris Flexen and Nick Nastrini have all made multiple starts but all came into today with an ERA north of 6.00. Flexen allowed just two earned runs over five innings today, lowering his ERA to 4.85. The Sox have combined for a 5.52 ERA out of the rotation, ranking 29th in the big leagues — ahead of only the Rockies. White Sox starters have averaged an MLB-worst 1.61 homers per nine frames.

Keller, 28, is a longtime division foe for the Sox, having spent his entire big league career prior to this season with the Royals. From 2018-20, Keller emerged as a steadying presence for Kansas City, going from a Rule 5 long reliever to a core member of the rotation. He pitched 360 1/3 frames of 3.50 ERA ball during that stretch, but his career went the opposite direction in three subsequent seasons.

From 2021-23, Keller was tagged for a 5.14 ERA as his command took a noticeable turn for the worse. He was limited to just 45 1/3 innings in 2023, logging a 4.57 ERA but issuing an alarming 45 walks along the way. Keller’s season ended early due to thoracic outlet symptoms. He inked a minor league deal with the ChiSox during the offseason and has made one scoreless relief appearance (1 2/3 innings) in addition to three starts at the Triple-A level, where he turned in a 4.50 ERA in 16 innings and piled up grounders at a huge 62.5% clip.

Clevinger will be entering his second season with the Sox. He started 24 games for the South Siders last year and notched a 3.77 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 30.9% ground-ball rate. Despite a solid season on the mound, Clevinger lingered in free agency and ultimately settled on a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the White Sox. He signed late enough that he required the current Triple-A tune-up before joining the big league rotation.

It’s not immediately clear who’ll lose their spot. Nastrini and Cannon have both already been optioned to Triple-A. Soroka and Flexen are veteran stopgaps who are only signed for the current season. Flexen has struggled mightily in the rotation and fared better in a pair of bullpen appearances, but as mentioned, he had a nice performance in today’s series finale against the Twins. Soroka has completed five innings in just three of his seven starts. Crochet’s workload figures to be monitored after he pitched just 24 1/3 frames last year in his return from 2022 Tommy John surgery. He’s never topped 54 1/3 innings in a professional season since being selected in the first round of the 2020 draft.

A’s Option Ryan Noda

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The A’s optioned first baseman Ryan Noda to Triple-A Las Vegas following today’s win over the Pirates. Oakland hasn’t announced a corresponding move, but MLB.com’s Martín Gallegos tweets that they could reinstate third baseman J.D. Davis from the 10-day injured list before Friday’s series opener against the Marlins.

It’s a quick turn of events for the A’s Opening Day first baseman. The second pick in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, Noda not only stuck on the roster but was one of Oakland’s best hitters as a rookie. He hit 16 homers with a .229/.364/.406 slash through 495 plate appearances. Between a very patient approach and below-average contact rate, Noda struck out at a huge 34.3% clip. Yet he also walked at a massive 15.6% rate — a top ten mark in MLB — and hit for enough power to be a productive offensive player.

That has not been the case in 2024. An 0-4 showing this afternoon dropped his season line to .128/.242/.198 in exactly 100 trips to the dish. Noda has taken another 12 free passes, but he has punched out 32 times. He hasn’t done any kind of damage, hitting just one homer and a trio of doubles. That longball and one of the doubles came against the Guardians on April 20. Noda doesn’t have a knock since then, as he has gone hitless in his last 11 appearances.

Skipper Mark Kotsay has continued to give Noda regular run against right-handed pitching. They’ll need to go in another direction for at least the next couple of weeks while he works to get back on track in the Pacific Coast League. Switch-hitting Abraham Toro has moved to first base for the A’s last two games against left-handed starters. Max Schuemann has stepped in at Toro’s customary second base spot for those contests.

If Davis is indeed ready to return from the adductor strain that has cost him the past two weeks, he’ll likely return to third base. That could push Tyler Nevin across the diamond. The right-handed hitting Nevin, whom the A’s claimed off waivers from the Orioles a month ago, connected on his fourth homer of the season in today’s game and is up to a .325/.375/.500 slash over 88 plate appearances.

Rangers Notes: Scherzer, Mahle, Rocker, Church

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Right-hander Max Scherzer has made one rehab start already and was slated for a second one but will be delayed a few days after experiencing some soreness in his right thumb, GM Chris Young told the Rangers beat last night (X link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). They’re hopeful he can make his next start this week.

The 39-year-old Scherzer has spent the entire season to date on the 15-day injured list while he mends from offseason back surgery. He was excellent in eight starts down the stretch last year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate following the trade that sent him from the Mets to Texas. The original thought was that Scherzer would be sidelined into June, but the Rangers held off on placing the three-time Cy Young winner on the 60-day injured list with his recovery ahead of schedule. There’s no indication that his back is providing any problems, so assuming the thumb injury proves minor, a mid-May return still feels viable.

Texas currently ranks 14th in the majors with a 3.87 ERA from the rotation. That’s thanks largely to strong showings from Nathan Eovaldi, Dane Dunning and Jon Gray — each of whom has made six starts. Left-hander Cody Bradford impressed early but has since gone on the injured list with a stress fracture in his rib. Veteran Andrew Heaney has struggled in five starts, and rookie Jack Leiter was hit hard in his big league debut. Right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who signed a late-spring one-year deal, has helped solidify things through his first three starts — but a return from Scherzer would be a substantial boon to the staff, of course.

Scherzer is just one of three veteran starters on the mend for Texas. Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are both expected back later in the season. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provides an update on Mahle’s rehab from Tommy John surgery, noting that he and Rangers prospect Kumar Rocker not only coincidentally had their Tommy John procedures performed on the same day last year but performed by the same surgeon: Dr. Keith Meister. Rocker has begun throwing all of his pitches off a mound, while Mahle is also pitching off a mound and will join his teammates on their upcoming road trip. Mahle and Rocker aren’t yet to the point where they’re facing live hitters, but each is progressing well through the rehab process.

Things aren’t going quite so well for pitching prospect Marc Church. Young revealed yesterday that the right-hander has been diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff and will be sidelined for a yet-to-be-determined period as a result of that shoulder issue (X link via Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com).

Church, 23, was the team’s 18th-round pick back in 2019 — signing for an over-slot $300K bonus — and has emerged as a prospect of note in the Rangers’ system, ranking 22nd at MLB.com. Church has missed bats in bunches throughout his minor league tenure, fanning 34.7% of his total opponents. A former high school shortstop who didn’t begin pitching until his senior year, he draws praise for his athleticism and could yet have some untapped upside as he’s still relatively new to pitching. MLB.com’s report on him notes that he has a pair of plus-plus (70-grade) offerings when his heater and slider are at their best but lacks consistency.

Church has also begun to encounter some command troubles in the upper minors. He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, walking a combined 14% of his opponents. He also fanned just shy of 30% of batters faced, however. Church opened the current season with a solid 4 2/3 innings out of the ’pen before going down with his current injury. He’s already on the 40-man roster and stands as a candidate to make his big league debut in 2024, particularly after a strong spring showing: 10 2/3 innings, five hits, three runs, five walks, 14 strikeouts. If Church is able to get back on the mound without a long-term absence, he could still find his way to the big leagues this season, but it’s not entirely clear how feasible that is in light of this setback. The Rangers will presumably have more updates on the promising young righty in the weeks to come.

Astros Notes: McCormick, Javier, Urquidy, Hader

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The Astros placed Chas McCormick on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 28, before tonight’s matchup with the Guardians. The outfielder is dealing with right hamstring discomfort. Infielder Jacob Amaya was recalled in his place, while the Astros also brought up Trey Cabbage (a move first reported by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2) to take the spot vacated when they optioned José Abreu last night.

McCormick had a tough first month of the season. The typically steady left fielder is out to a .236/.325/.278 slash through 83 plate appearances. He still has yet to hit a home run after connecting on a career-high 22 longballs a season ago. McCormick had been an above-average hitter in each of his first three campaigns. Last year’s .273/.353/.489 line was the best work of his career.

His effort to get on track will be put on pause by the hamstring issue, although there’s nothing to suggest he’s facing a long-term absence. Joey Loperfido has gotten the nod in left field for the past two nights. The rookie could be in line for regular playing time on the grass after hitting 13 homers in 25 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido could also pick up first base reps as the Astros rotate through options to replace Abreu. Jon Singleton has gotten the nod at that position in each of the last two games.

McCormick and utility infielder Grae Kessinger are Houston’s only position players on the IL. They haven’t been nearly as fortunate on the pitching side. Most of their rotation has spent time on the injured list at some point. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are still a ways away in their rehabs from arm surgeries, while José Urquidy and Cristian Javier are on the 15-day IL.

Houston released encouraging updates on the latter two right-handers this afternoon. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the Astros might reinstate Javier to start Sunday’s matchup with the Mariners. Javier has been out since April 18 with neck discomfort, so he could make it back not long after the 15-day minimum if things go well in the next few days.

Urquidy has been battling a longer-term ailment. He reported elbow pain in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a forearm strain. Urquidy has been on the IL for the entire season but could be nearing a rehab stint. Espada indicated that the 29-year-old threw 30 pitches in a live batting practice session today (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). If Urquidy gets through one more session without issue, he could report to a minor league affiliate to build into game shape.

In a rare Astros pitching development not related to injury, Espada tabbed star closer Josh Hader for a two-inning stint in yesterday’s extra-inning win over the Guards. The Astros called on Hader to keep the game tied in the top of the ninth. When both teams failed to score, they sent him back out for the tenth. He allowed the automatic runner to score but got credited for the win when Victor Caratini popped a two-out walk-off homer in the bottom half.

That was not just Hader’s first multi-inning appearance of the season. It was the first time he’d worked more than one inning in a regular season game since 2020; he hadn’t completed two full innings since 2019 when he was a member of the Brewers. As he became more established, Hader had been vocal about not wanting to work more than one inning.

The five-time All-Star indicated that’s no longer the case now that he has secured a five-year, $95MM free agent contract. Hader told the Houston beat that his expectation for 2024 is “to be available for multiple innings” (link via The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). The southpaw contrasted that to the past few seasons when he was going through the arbitration system and didn’t have long-term financial security. Those comments may not sit well with the Milwaukee or San Diego fanbases, but it’s a nice boost for the Astros.

Hader has had some uncharacteristic struggles in his first month in Houston. He has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) through his first 12 2/3 innings. Hader has recorded 21 strikeouts behind a huge 16% swinging strike rate, though, so he should find more consistency as the season goes along. The back of the bullpen has been a surprising disappointment thus far. Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have also scuffled, contributing to Houston’s 10-19 start.

Luis Patiño Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Padres right-hander Luis Patiño underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The righty will miss the remainder of 2024 and some part of 2025 as well.

Patiño, 24, began the season on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation. It seems that subsequent testing revealed the need for surgery. Given the typical 14-18 month recovery range for Tommy John procedures, he will miss the remainder of this year and a significant chunk of 2025 as well.

It’s yet another setback for a pitcher who was once a top prospect. Patiño came up as a Padres prospect and was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in three straight years from 2019 to 2021, being in the top 25 in the latter two. He had a 2.35 earned run average in 234 innings in the minors from 2017 to 2019, striking out 29.4% of batters faced while walking just 8.4%. The Friars called him up in 2020 and he posted a 5.19 ERA in 17 1/3 innings, though he was only 20 years old at that time.

Going into 2021, he was traded to the Rays as part of the Blake Snell deal, going to Tampa alongside Francisco Mejia, Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox. He tossed 77 1/3 innings in his first season for the Rays, with a 4.31 ERA in that time. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate were fairly average, but not a bad outcome for a pitcher who was only 21 years old and in his first extended look at the big leagues.

But in 2022, an oblique strain cost him more than three months. He was only able to pitch 20 innings on the year and had a bloated ERA of 8.10 in that time. Last year, he was kept mostly in the minors and showcased significant command woes. In 45 1/3 innings for Triple-A Durham, he walked 13.4% of batters and posted a 6.75 ERA.

He went to the White Sox in a cash deal just before the trade deadline and his struggles continued. His 17 2/3 innings in the majors were passable, with a 3.57 ERA. But in 14 1/3 Triple-A innings after the deal, he walked a massive 20.3% of batters faced.

He exhausted his final option year and the Sox designated him for assignment in December. The Padres claimed him off waivers, bringing him back to his original organization. Unfortunately, he’s now facing a significant layoff as he recovers from his surgery.

Amid all of these twists and turns, it’s easy to forget that Patiño is still incredibly young. Though he’s bounced around the league for years and is now out of options, he’s younger than some top prospects who haven’t even made it to the big leagues yet, such as Will Warren or Christian Scott. He still has time to get himself back on track, though he obviously has a long recovery ahead of him now.

If there’s a silver lining in this for Patiño, it’s that he’s already on the major league injured list. He’ll eventually be transferred to the 60-day variety whenever the Padres need his roster spot, collecting big league pay and service time for the whole year. He’ll cross the three-year service mark this season and will be eligible for arbitration this winter, though he’ll be a non-tender candidate given his health status.

Red Sox Designate Vladimir Gutierrez For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced that they have signed first baseman Dominic Smith to a one-year contract. He’ll take the roster spot of outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left thumb sprain, retroactive to April 29. To open a 40-man spot for Smith, right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez has been designated for assignment. Prior to the official announcement, manager Álex Cora announced that Yoshida was heading to the IL on Jones & Mego. Hat tip to Rob Bradford of WEEI. The Sox adding Smith was reported on earlier today.

Yoshida, 30, has hit .275/.348/.388 so far this year. That’s fairly comparable to last year’s production, when he hit .289/.338/.445 in his first season after coming over from Japan. He departed Sunday’s game after jamming his hand during an at-bat, per Christopher Smith of MassLive. Smith relayed yesterday that Yoshida would be getting an MRI, which seems to have revealed this injury.

Though the Sox won’t be happy to lose Yoshida’s bat, his absence will give them a bit of lineup flexibility. He has primarily been serving as the designated hitter this year, with just one inning in left field. They can now use that DH spot to rotate various players through based on health and matchups.

With Triston Casas on the injured list and unlikely to return any time soon, the Sox have been looking outside the organization for help at first base. They acquired Garrett Cooper from the Cubs but he himself is banged up after getting hit by a pitch last night on his arm last night. Chris Cotillo of MassLive relayed that Cooper is just bruised and is going to be okay but it’s possible he may need a day or two to rest up.

With Smith now on the roster, he can perhaps cover for Cooper as he is on the mend. With Yoshida out, the Sox could have both Smith and Cooper in the lineup via the DH slot, if they so choose. Both players have a bit of outfield experience but neither of them are considered strong defenders on the grass.

To get Smith onto the roster, the Sox have cut Gutierrez. The 28-year-old was acquired from the Brewers in a cash deal a couple of weeks ago. The Red Sox have kept him down in Triple-A on optional assignment since then, where he has pitched six innings over three appearances, allowing four earned runs while striking out seven but walking eight.

The Sox will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He’s been bouncing around the league quite a bit this year. He signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in February and was selected to their roster in the first few days of the season. He was designated for assignment and went to the Brewers on a waiver claim, before being DFA’d again and getting flipped to the Red Sox. That makes today his third DFA in roughly a month.

The Cuban righty joined affiliated ball by signing with the Reds as a 21-year-old, earning a bonus of $4.75MM. He made his major league debut in 2021 with 114 innings over 22 starts, posting a 4.74 earned run average that year while striking out just 17.7% of batters faced. He struggled in 2022 before requiring Tommy John surgery in June of that year, wiping out the remainder of that season and most of his 2023. The Reds outrighted him off their roster at the end of last year, which led to his minor league deal with Miami.

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