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Rangers Sign Michael Lorenzen

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March 22: The Rangers have now announced the signing. Right-hander Jacob deGrom was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

March 20: The Rangers are in agreement with free agent starter Michael Lorenzen on a one-year, $4.5MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). The deal, which is pending a physical, contains another $2.5MM in performance bonuses. Lorenzen is a client of CAA Sports.

Aside from Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen was arguably the best starter still available. The right-hander had reportedly waited out the market in search of a multi-year pact. That evidently didn’t materialize, as he instead inks a one-year deal for the third straight offseason. After securing respective $6.75MM and $8.5MM contracts in the last two winters, he winds up taking a reduced rate for the 2024 season.

That’s certainly not what he’d been hoping for on the heels of the first All-Star nod of his career. Lorenzen appeared on his way to a two- or potentially three-year pact midway through the year. He turned in strong numbers over 18 starts with the Tigers, working to a 3.58 ERA across 105 2/3 innings. A sub-20% strikeout rate raised a question as to whether he could sustain that kind of run prevention, but he nevertheless was one of the better rental starters available at the deadline.

Detroit flipped Lorenzen to the Phillies for second base prospect Hao-Yu Lee. His initial two starts with the Phils couldn’t have gone better. He tossed eight innings of two-run ball in Miami during his team debut. In his first home appearance at Citizens Bank Park, he no-hit the Nationals. That he tossed 124 pitches in that game wasn’t ideal, but skipper Rob Thomson gave him the leeway to complete that historic outing.

Things quickly went downhill after that appearance. Nine days later, Lorenzen faced the same Washington lineup at Nationals Park. He was tagged for seven runs in 3 1/3 innings. That kicked off a stretch of six consecutive appearances in which he allowed at least four runs. That included a relief outing on September 19 in which Lorenzen retired one of seven batters faced against the Braves.

To his credit, Lorenzen finished the regular season with a trio of scoreless relief outings. He’d already fallen down the leverage hierarchy by that point though. The Phils used him just twice in their run to the NLCS. He worked 2 2/3 scoreless frames in mop-up situations during the postseason.

That Lorenzen moved to the bullpen wasn’t a surprise in itself. The Phils acknowledged at the time of his acquisition that they could eventually squeeze him out and go with a five-man staff of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez. Yet there’s no denying the last six weeks didn’t go anywhere close to plan. He allowed 30 runs (27 earned) with an 18:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 30 1/3 innings.

Whether that finish was more a reflection of Lorenzen wearing down after the no-hitter or about his middling peripherals catching up to him, it was a sour conclusion to what was a solid season. His first 20 starts were strong enough that his overall line was right around league average. Lorenzen finished the year with a 4.18 ERA through a personal-high 153 innings. He’d posted a similar 4.24 mark over 97 2/3 frames with the Angels in 2022, his first season as a starter since his 2015 rookie campaign.

While last year’s 17.8% strikeout percentage and 9.4% swinging strike rate were each below average, he trimmed his walks to a modest 7.5% clip. He mixed five pitches, headlined by a four-seam fastball that sat a little above 94 MPH on average. Lorenzen’s aggregate production looked like that of a strike-throwing #4/5 starter. While that’s perhaps not the most exciting profile, it explains why his camp thought a multi-year deal should’ve been on the table. Within the past two offseasons, players like Drew Smyly ($19MM), Jordan Lyles ($17MM), and KBO returnee Erick Fedde ($15MM) secured two-year pacts.

It’s impossible to know whether that would’ve been attainable earlier in the offseason, but the market hasn’t been favorable for the players who remain unsigned deep into Spring Training. Lorenzen’s one-year deal trails those inked by Alex Wood ($8.5MM), Martín Pérez ($8MM), Jakob Junis ($7MM) and James Paxton ($7MM) earlier in the winter.

On the plus side, the 32-year-old gets an opportunity with a contender. He joins the defending World Series winners to help a rotation that’ll be without each of Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom for a couple months. Texas still has a solid front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford struggled in a swing role last season but has pitched well this spring. GM Chris Young said last weekend that Bradford earned the fifth starter role, but it’s possible he’ll be nudged back into relief at some point.

Lorenzen might not be ready to step right into the Texas rotation. His extended free agent stay kept him from pitching competitively this spring. He has been throwing on his own, reportedly tossing 70 pitches earlier in the week, yet that’s not a perfect substitute for game action. Bradford may still take a turn or two through the rotation before moving to a swing role as the top depth option in case anyone ahead of him suffers an injury.

The signing pushes the team’s player payroll to the $224MM range, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $248MM in luxury tax commitments. Texas is set to pay the competitive balance tax for a second consecutive season. That means they’re taxed at a 30% rate on spending between $237MM and $257MM. Adding Lorenzen comes with another $1.35MM in CBT commitments, pushing the overall guarantee to roughly $5.85MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Release Elvis Andrus

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The Diamondbacks announced Friday that they’ve released shortstop Elvis Andrus, who’d been in camp on a minor league deal. Arizona also optioned first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith and lefty Andrew Saalfrank to Triple-A Reno. Additionally, non-roster lefty Jose Castillo was reassigned to minor league camp.

Andrus, 35, signed a minor league pact with the Snakes earlier this month. He made it into six official Cactus League games and went 2-for-17 with a pair of singles, a walk and four strikeouts. The D-backs announced even before signing Andrus that Geraldo Perdomo would be the team’s everyday shortstop to begin the season, meaning Andrus was essentially competing for a bench role. The Diamondbacks will apparently stick with in-house options for that spot, including out-of-options third baseman Emmanuel Rivera and veteran utilityman Jace Peterson.

Andrus spent the 2023 season with the White Sox, who signed him in 2022 after his release by the A’s and re-signed him to a big league deal last winter. The two-time All-Star hit well for the South Siders down the stretch in 2022 — .271/.309/.464 (118 wRC+) — but he couldn’t replicate that output in 2023. Andrus opened last year as Chicago’s primary second baseman but hit just .251/.304/.358 (81 wRC+) in 406 plate appearances.

While he only has three career seasons of average or better offense (by measure of wRC+), Andrus has long been a premium defender and baserunner. He’s no longer the plus-plus defender he was at shortstop early in his career, but Andrus can handle any of shortstop, second base or third base — making him a viable utility option for a team in need of some versatility off the bench. His sprint speed dropped way down to the 30th percentile of MLB players last year, per Statcast, but his instincts on the bases still allowed him to swipe a dozen bags in 16 tries.

Casey Mize, Reese Olson Win Rotation Spots With Tigers; Matt Manning Optioned To Triple-A

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The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve optioned right-hander Matt Manning to Triple-A Toledo. That puts an end to the three-horse race for the final two spots in manager AJ Hinch’s rotation. Right-handers Casey Mize and Reese Olson will open the season on the starting staff behind lefty Tarik Skubal and righties Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty. Detroit also reassigned non-roster right-hander Drew Anderson to minor league camp.

Detroit’s talented trio of right-handers didn’t make the decision easy — at least not in terms of spring results. Each of Mize, Olson and Manning pitched between 14 2/3 innings and 16 innings this spring, and none posted an ERA north of Olson’s 3.68. Olson posted the best blend of strikeout and walk rates in camp (22.6% and 6.5%, respectively). Mize notched the lowest ERA but the highest walk rate. Manning was perhaps done in by the six home runs he yielded in 16 innings.

While Manning won’t open the season in the rotation, it’s likely that he, Mize and Olson will all make their share of starts in Detroit this season. Mize is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery and back surgery. He’ll be on an innings limit of some degree. Injuries in the rotation are also a virtual inevitability. Even with Manning opening the year in Toledo, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him start 15-plus games in the bigs.

Mize, 27 in May, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. He showed plenty of promise in 2021, tossing 150 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball with a below-average 19.3% strikeout rate but a strong 6.7% walk rate and similarly encouraging 48.1% ground-ball rate. That looked to set the stage for Mize to seize a long-term spot in the Detroit rotation, but he unfortunately suffered a UCL tear early in the 2022 season. He wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery and, while he was rehabbing that procedure, underwent surgery to address a nagging back issue that had been plaguing him for some time. He’s still under club control for three seasons.

Olson, 24, made his big league debut with Detroit last season and quickly impressed. In his first 103 2/3 MLB frames, he turned in a 3.99 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (7.8%) and ground-ball (42.8%) rates. Olson supported those rates with solid marks in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates as well. The Tigers control him all the way through 2029.

The 26-year-old Manning was Detroit’s first-round pick back in 2016. He’s pitched in parts of three big league seasons, logging a 4.37 ERA with a 16.1% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 41.6% grounder rate. Manning hasn’t missed bats at the levels expected throughout his time as a top-ranked prospect, but he’s shown solid command and kept the ball in the yard nicely to this point in his career. He’s also had frequent bad luck with injuries, including a 2023 season in which he incredibly broke his foot on two separate occasions upon being struck by a comeback line-drive. He’s under club control through 2027 and will remain a notable piece of the Tigers’ rotation puzzle in the foreseeable future, even if he starts this season out in Toledo.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies reinforced their rotation with a major extension and a major re-signing, but it was otherwise a relatively quiet offseason in the City of Brotherly Love.  After making the NLCS last year, have the Phillies done enough to book a return to the World Series?

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $35.57MM
Total spending: $183MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

In an offseason marked by several top-tier free agents lingering on the market deep into March, Aaron Nola came off the market by mid-November.  The Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves were among the teams who were at least somewhat linked to Nola, and reports suggested that Atlanta was the most fervent non-Phillies suitor.  However, Nola’s preference to remain with the Phillies led the righty to re-sign on a seven-year, $172MM pact, even though a larger offer was reportedly on the table from an unknown team.

It seems as though Philadelphia’s $172MM figure was at least close enough to this mystery offer that Nola opted to stay in a comfortable situation, and the length of the new contract could very well make Nola a Phillie for his entire career.  Chosen seventh overall by the Phils in the 2014 draft, Nola has become a true front-of-the-rotation talent, capable of delivering both big innings totals and quality results.

This isn’t to say that the deal isn’t without a few red flags.  Nola was more good than great in 2023, with a 4.46 ERA and a near-average 38.5% hard-hit ball rate.  That particular metric is important for Nola given his tendency to allow a lot of barrels, so batters have been able to tag the veteran for a lot of home runs when they’re able to truly square up on the ball.  Nola’s curveball was also just an average pitch in 2023, after years of being at least a plus offering and sometimes one of the more effective pitches in the sport.

Nola’s strikeout rate was still above average, and for the third straight season he continued to be one of baseball’s best at limiting walks.  It also wouldn’t have been easy for the Phillies to fill all of the innings that the durable Nola has brought to the rotation, not to mention his behind-the-scenes status as a clubhouse leader.  Though Philadelphia checked in with Sonny Gray as a potential alternate if Nola went elsewhere, both Nola and the Phillies preferred the familiarity of their longtime relationship.

Philadelphia’s other big rotation investment didn’t come until Spring Training, and it again involved the Phillies locking up an in-house name.  Zack Wheeler is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM contract he signed in December 2019, but he’ll now continue his Phillies tenure after signing a three-year, $126MM extension that begins with the 2025 campaign.  The new deal keeps Wheeler in the fold through his age-37 season, though he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, as he finished sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year.

Neither president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski or owner John Middleton have been very hesitant about spending, and the Nola/Wheeler contracts continue the Phillies’ simple (but effective) strategy of upgrading the roster via high-priced, name-brand talent.  The result has been an NL pennant in 2022 and an NLCS appearance in 2023, as the Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in both seasons.  Even with Wheeler’s extension not going onto the books until next year, RosterResource estimates a $261.8MM tax number for the Phillies in 2024, again putting the team over not just the $237MM tax threshold but also the $257MM second penalty tier.

The tax considerations could explain why the Phillies didn’t do all that much this winter, though there’s also the basic fact that the roster is largely set.  For instance, the door seemed to close on a reunion with Rhys Hoskins when the Phillies announced that Bryce Harper would be the everyday first baseman in 2024 and beyond.  With Harper now at first base and Kyle Schwarber as the full-time DH, Hoskins (who missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL) was the odd man out, and he instead signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers.

Wheeler and Nola headline a rotation that also includes Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez, and the everyday lineup also looked more or less complete until the news broke in early February that Brandon Marsh would be sidelined for 3-4 weeks in the aftermath of arthroscopic knee surgery.  Marsh is back playing Spring Training games and should be ready for Opening Day, though it probably isn’t a coincidence that about a week after Marsh’s surgery was announced, Whit Merrifield was signed to a one-year, $8MM guarantee.

Merrifield’s unusual 2023 season included a spot on the AL All-Star team, but also a brutal second-half slump that saw him hit only .212/.250/.288 over his last 196 plate appearances.  The cold streak cost Merrifield playing time in the Blue Jays’ lineup, and it wasn’t a surprise that both Merrifield and the Jays declined their ends of the veteran’s $18MM mutual option for the 2024 season.

As he enters his age-35 season, the right-handed hitting Merrifield provides some platoon depth behind the lefty-swinging Bryson Stott (at second base) and Marsh (in left field).  There’s a chance Merrifield could get more playing time in left field if Marsh is needed in center field, as while Philadelphia would love to see defensive standout Johan Rojas win the everyday center field job, Rojas has looked overmatched at the plate in Spring Training.  Rojas was more than respectable (.302/.342/.430) over his first 164 big league PA in 2023, though since he doesn’t have any Triple-A experience, the Phillies might choose to give Rojas a bit more time in the minors to begin the season in order to get his bat on track.

Jordan Luplow was also brought into spring camp on a minors deal, and Luplow joins David Dahl (another non-roster signing), Cristian Pache, and Jake Cave as depth options.  Pache and Cave are both out of minor league options, which creates an interesting decision for the Phils as they decide who will earn the backup outfield spot on the Opening Day roster.

Dombrowski said in December that the team would look for additions “more around the edges” of the roster, considering how the team was lacking in major question marks after Nola was re-signed.  This approach was manifested in the low-cost signings of Spencer Turnbull and Kolby Allard, who provide some depth to the rotation and bullpen mix.  Additionally, Max Castillo was claimed off waivers and Michael Rucker was acquired in a deal with the Cubs.

This was pretty much it as far as bullpen additions, even though the closer role seemed to open up when Craig Kimbrel left in free agency.  Philadelphia reportedly looked into Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Phil Maton, and Jakob Junis before all four pitchers signed elsewhere, and nothing much seemed to materialize between the Phils and Josh Hader, despite a lot of speculation early in the offseason that Hader was a natural fit for a team in need of ninth-inning help.

Strikeout machine Jose Alvarado now looks like the favorite for the closer’s job, though he had some injury problems in 2023 and has long struggled to limit walks.  Any of Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, or Orion Kerkering could get save chances within the somewhat fluid Phillies bullpen situation, and the team would particularly love to see the hard-throwing Kerkering emerge as a legitimate bullpen weapon.  Kerkering still only has two seasons of pro experience, however, and the rookie was sidelined for a good chunk of Spring Training due to the flu.

There are enough interesting options on hand that the Phillies might be comfortable with their bullpen for now.  However, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the Phillies add another relief arm once teams start making roster cuts late in Spring Training, and Dombrowski might well seek out more high-leverage help closer to the trade deadline.

In terms of other big moves on the offseason radar, the Phils were among the most serious suitors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as the team reportedly offered the Japanese phenom a 12-year contract.  Yamamoto ended up signing with the Dodgers for $325MM over a 12-year term, so it seems like the Phillies at least got themselves in the ballpark even if the financial terms of their offer are still unknown.

Yamamoto’s age (25), obvious talent, and the Phillies’ desire to increase their presence in the Japanese market combined to generate the aggressive bid, as this same perfect storm didn’t exist for any other big names.  Philadelphia was only very loosely linked to the Juan Soto trade talks or to Cody Bellinger’s free agent market, and the club had some limited (and perhaps just due diligence) interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.  Since Montgomery is still without a team this close to Opening Day, the Phillies could technically still emerge as a bidder at the eleventh hour, even it doesn’t seem too likely that the Phils would offer the kind of long-term contract Montgomery was apparently still seeking as recently as two weeks ago.

The Phillies also added another year onto manager Rob Thomson’s contract, continuing the offseason’s overall “running it back” theme.  Standing pat is justifiable considering how successful Philadelphia has been in the last two seasons, and there is also some reason to believe the Phillies could be even better.  Harper is now fully healthy after two injury-marred seasons, and younger players like Stott, Marsh, Sanchez, Rojas and/or Kerkering could further emerge with more Major League playing time under their belts.  The real test will come in October when the Phillies try to take that final step towards a championship, and as presently constructed, it looks like Philadelphia should again be in contention.

How would you grade the Phillies' offseason?
B 52.83% (710 votes)
C 25.30% (340 votes)
A 13.84% (186 votes)
D 4.17% (56 votes)
F 3.87% (52 votes)
Total Votes: 1,344

The Opener: Opt-Outs, Martinez, Trades

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With MLB’s Seoul Series now in the books, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world heading into the weekend:

1. Article XX(B) Opt-Outs are today:

As a provision of the current collective bargaining agreement, uniform opt-out opportunities are provided to Article XX(B) free agents who are in camp with clubs on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is a player with at least six years of MLB service time who finished the prior season on a big league roster or injured list. The first of those aforementioned uniform opt-out opportunities is set for today at 1pm CT. At that point, any XX(B) eligible player can exercise their opt-out, which would leave their current club with a 48-hour window to either add them to the 40-man roster or release them. Players who remain in their current organization and are not added to the 40-man will have additional opt-out opportunities on May 1 and June 1.

Today’s opt-outs could be particularly impactful for clubs that have been ravaged by injuries in recent weeks. Teams looking for help on the positional side, such as the Reds and Rays, figure to benefit the most from today’s opt-outs, as sixteen of the 31 players with opt-out opportunities are hitters. Included amongst the names on that list are up-the-middle options such as Kolten Wong, Elvis Andrus, and Jake Marisnick as well as corner bats like Mike Moustakas and Garrett Cooper. By contrast, just five of them are starting pitchers, meaning teams facing pitching injuries such as the Marlins, Astros, and Yankees are far less likely to benefit from today’s opt-outs, though it’s at least feasible that a back-end arm or two such as Carlos Carrasco or Brad Keller could return to the open market.

2. Martinez deal to be made official:

The Mets and veteran slugger J.D. Martinez reached an agreement on a one-year deal yesterday that guarantees the 36-year-old a $12MM salary, though the majority of that money is deferred to reduce the net present value of the deal to just under $9MM per RosterResource. The Mets will need to clear space for Martinez on their 40-man roster assuming the deal, which is pending a physical, becomes official in the coming days. New York has no obvious candidates for a trip to the 60-day injured list, as right-hander Kodai Senga is on the verge of beginning a throwing program as he looks to return for a shoulder issue that has sidelined him this spring while fellow righty Max Kranick’s hamstring strain appears unlikely to sideline him for that long either. Barring a surprise injury or a setback for one of the two aforementioned players, that leaves the Mets in position to either designate a player for assignment or attempt to work out a trade of some sort that clears roster space.

3. Will the trade market heat up in the coming days?

The Mets are unlikely to be the only club looking to do 40-man roster maneuvering in the coming days, however. Between the impending opt-out opportunity for Article XX(B) veterans and the fact that Opening Day is fast approaching, teams have already begun to finalize their roster decisions ahead of the 2024 season. Clubs with full 40-man rosters hoping to add non-roster players to the Opening Day squad, whether they be veterans on minor league deals or top prospects who have yet to debut in the big leagues, will need to make room on their rosters in the coming days. That could lead to trades involving players already on the 40-man roster being moved elsewhere for non-roster pieces, allowing teams in need of 40-man space to recoup some value for a player rather than simply designating them for assignment.

Many trades of this caliber, such as the deal that sent outfielder Greg Jones from the Rays to the Rockies yesterday, are fairly minor. Others can be more significant, such as the deal between the Cubs and the Dodgers this offseason that saw the clubs swap top prospects, with Michael Busch headed to Chicago alongside reliever Yency Almonte. In return, the Dodgers cleared two spots on their 40-man roster while bringing back non-roster youngsters in left-hander Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope. Of course, it’s not always feasible for a team to work out a trade when they need 40-man roster space, though the flurry of transactions typically associated with Opening Day roster construction could help to spark a deal or two that might not otherwise get done.

Giants Release Amir Garrett

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The Giants announced Thursday evening that they’ve released veteran reliever Amir Garrett from his minor league deal (X link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). He had been in camp as a non-roster invitee but wasn’t going to make the Opening Day roster.

That’s not a surprise given the left-hander’s numbers this spring. Garrett allowed nine runs over 6 1/3 innings. He surrendered 13 hits and issued seven walks while recording three strikeouts. The Giants could use lefty relief help, but Garrett simply hadn’t performed well.

The 31-year-old should nevertheless find interest on a minor league deal elsewhere. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he has an above-average 26.4% strikeout rate over 325 1/3 career innings. Garrett fanned a quarter of batters faced with a 3.33 ERA in 27 appearances for the Royals last season, but Kansas City cut him loose because his walk rate had jumped to a near-18% clip. He finished the year in Triple-A with the Guardians, where he struggled in a very small sample. While Garrett is unlikely to get a season-opening opportunity in a major league bullpen, he’s a sensible target for teams looking for upper minors relief depth based on his velocity and bat-missing ability.

San Francisco only has one left-hander who is a lock for their bullpen: Taylor Rogers. They optioned Erik Miller earlier in camp, while Ethan Small is headed to the injured list after straining his right oblique. There are no other lefty relievers on the 40-man roster.

If the Giants want a second left-hander, non-roster invitee Juan Sanchez has seemingly pitched his way to the top of list. The 23-year-old has punched out 11 against two walks with a massive 60% ground-ball rate over nine innings in camp. He has allowed four runs, two of them earned.

Pirates Move Roansy Contreras To Bullpen

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The Pirates are moving right-hander Roansy Contreras to the bullpen, Derek Shelton told reporters after tonight’s Spring Training contest (X link via MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf). While the Pittsburgh manager left open the possibility of giving Contreras another rotation look down the line, he’s viewed as a reliever for the moment.

At this time last year, the 24-year-old looked like one of the more promising starting pitchers in the organization. The Bucs had made him the arguable centerpiece of their 2021 trade return from the Yankees for Jameson Taillon. Contreras was viewed as a fringe Top 100-caliber prospect before turning in a solid ’22 campaign as a rookie. Contreras held a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation for a good portion of that season. He tossed 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with a strikeout and walk profile that wasn’t far off league average.

That showing earned him a spot in last year’s rotation. Contreras’ raw stuff and results all backed up, though, and he was tagged for 6.59 earned runs per nine innings. His strikeout rate dropped nearly three percentage points, sitting at a middling 18.8% clip. His walk rate went slightly up. The average velocity on his four-seam fastball ticked down from 95.8 MPH to 94.6 MPH. Contreras’ slider remained an effective offering, although he even lost a few percentage points on that pitch’s swing-and-miss rate.

As the struggles mounted, the Bucs first kicked him to the bullpen and eventually back to the minors. He made eight appearances in Triple-A, where he had an ERA just below 5.00 in a hitter-friendly league. The Pirates even assigned him back to their Florida complex for a few weeks to work through his mechanics outside of a game setting.

Those paths aren’t on the table this year. Last season burned Contreras’ final minor league option. The Pirates can no longer send him down without first exposing him to waivers, where he’d very likely be claimed. If they don’t want to risk losing him, they need to keep him in the majors. Yet Contreras’ performance this spring has been far from encouraging.

He has started three of five outings in exhibition play but only gotten through 12 1/3 innings. Contreras has issued 13 walks against nine strikeouts while allowing nine runs. His fastball velocity has sat in the 94-95 MPH range, but the inability to find the strike zone is alarming. It would’ve been difficult to justify giving him a spot in the MLB rotation coming off that kind of performance. A relief role will afford Shelton some flexibility in keeping Contreras out of high-leverage spots while he tries to recapture the form that he’d shown through 2022.

In other Bucs news, the team announced they’ve optioned Nick Gonzales to Triple-A Indianapolis. That takes him out of the mix in the camp battle for the Opening Day second base job. The former #7 overall pick had a middling spring, hitting .235/.278/.412 over 36 plate appearances. Liover Peguero and Jared Triolo are the top options to start at the keystone. They’ve each hit well in camp. Peguero has a .292/.370/.458 line in 11 games, while Triolo has turned in a .344/.432/.469 mark over 12 contests.

Bowden Francis Makes Blue Jays’ Season-Opening Rotation

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider told the team’s beat this afternoon that right-hander Bowden Francis will be in the season-opening rotation (relayed by Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet). He’s tentatively scheduled to take the ball in the fourth game of the year at Tampa Bay.

That will be Francis’ first start at the major league level. Initially a seventh-round pick by the Brewers in 2017, Francis landed with the Jays in the 2021 deal that sent Rowdy Tellez to Milwaukee. He made it to the majors for one relief outing the following season but was sent outright from the 40-man roster not long after. Francis finished 2022 with a 6.59 ERA in Triple-A.

Needless to say, it didn’t seem at that time that he’d be only a season away from breaking camp in the Toronto rotation. Francis broke through with a very strong performance last year. After an early-season stint on the minor league injured list, he posted impressive numbers over 27 innings with Triple-A Buffalo. Francis turned in a 2.67 ERA while punching out more than 37% of batters faced at the top minor league level. That earned him another shot on the 40-man roster and his first extended stretch in the majors as a multi-inning reliever.

The 27-year-old Francis continued to impress against big league hitters. He turned in a sparkling 1.73 ERA in 36 1/3 innings spanning 20 appearances. While he didn’t maintain his eye-popping whiff rates from Triple-A, Francis fanned an above-average 25.7% of MLB opponents against a tidy 5.9% walk rate.

He has carried that strong production into Spring Training. Francis has tossed 18 2/3 innings over five appearances (four starts), allowing eight runs with 15 strikeouts and four free passes. That was enough to solidify himself as the next man up in the event that any of Toronto’s top five starters spent time on the injured list. Alek Manoah will begin the season on the shelf after battling shoulder soreness. It’s not expected to be a long-term issue but has kept him out of Spring Training action since his exhibition debut on February 27.

Toronto will give the ball to José Berríos on Opening Day. He’ll likely be followed by Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and Francis. Ace Kevin Gausman is a bit behind because he dealt with what seemed to be minor shoulder fatigue earlier this month. He has expressed confidence he’ll avoid the injured list, although the Jays could keep him at the back of the first trip through the rotation to buy him a few extra days to continue building up.

Once Manoah is healthy, Francis might find himself bumped back to relief. He still has an option remaining, so the Jays could send him back to Buffalo if they want to keep him stretched out as a starter. He’ll at least get a few turns through the rotation in April to try to stake his claim to a permanent starting spot, his first chance to do so at the major league level.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers stole all the headlines this offseason, as they gave out multiple record-breaking deals, traded for an ace and did a bunch of other stuff as well.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $162.9MM (counting Ohtani’s salary as the league-adjusted $46MM; doesn’t include posting fee for Yamamoto)
Total spending: $1.096 billion (adjusting Ohtani’s guarantee to present day value of $460MM makes this number $756.4MM)

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Dodgers have already been a powerhouse team for a long time, having won the National League West in 10 of the past 11 seasons. The one exception was 2021, when they won 106 games but somehow were one shy of a surprising 107-win Giants club.

But they still came into this winter hungry for improvements. That 11-year stretch of playoff appearances only led to one World Series title, which was in the shortened 2020 season. The 2023 season ended unpleasantly, despite the club winning 100 games and earning another division title. Their rotation was largely decimated by injuries as the season wore on and they were quickly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

With the club looking to make a bold splash and this winter featuring one of the most anticipated free agents of all time, there were many who expected a pairing between the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani. In fact, it’s something that has been expected for even longer than that.

When Ohtani initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers weren’t a perfect fit since the National League did not yet have the designated hitter, which led Ohtani to pick the Angels. But the NL got the DH in 2022, which started a countdown for many people, just waiting for the two-way superstar’s free agency.

The Dodgers were obviously going to be interested but also made their intentions clear by deciding not to issue a qualifying offer to J.D. Martinez. Under normal circumstances, he would have warranted one, given his strong 33-homer campaign in 2023. But if he had accepted, it would have clogged up the designated hitter spot they wanted to put Ohtani into, so they didn’t risk it.

It probably shouldn’t have been surprising that a player as unique as Ohtani ended up having one of the most unique free agencies. From the outset, it was marked by a strange insistence on secrecy, to the point that clubs would reportedly hurt their chances of signing him if they acknowledged that they were trying to do so. Perhaps the most absurd example of this was when Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins missed the winter meetings and met with reporters via Zoom but wouldn’t tell them he was in Florida, showing Ohtani the club’s Dunedin complex.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts seemed to break protocol when he admitted that he and his club had recently met with Ohtani. Given the cloak-and-dagger nature of the Ohtani free agency and the lack of real information, it seemed genuinely possible that this would actually have a negative impact on the club’s chances of getting the deal done. There was even more worry when there were reports that Ohtani was on a plane to sign with the Blue Jays, but those eventually proved to be inaccurate. The long-awaited Ohtani-Dodgers pairing finally got done with a massive 10-year, $700MM deal.

Or did it? The unicorn player with the bizarre free agency apparently couldn’t sign a normal contract. After news of the deal landed, reports quickly emerged that put the shocking numbers into more context. Despite the $700M price tag, there was some fine print.

Ohtani will actually only make $2MM in each season of the deal and then get $68MM annually, without interest, in the 10 years following the expiration of the deal. He will still get $700MM, but over 20 years instead of 10. Deferred money reduces the present day value of the deal to $46MM annually in the eyes of the league and $43.8MM from the perspective of the MLBPA. Even with those caveats, the approximate $460MM guarantee is still the largest in MLB history. Even the lower of the two AAV numbers puts Ohtani ahead of Max Scherzer for the largest of all-time.

This was perceived by many fans as a way for the club to “dodge” the luxury tax, but MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes argued otherwise at the time. The $46MM competitive balance tax hit the Dodgers will get for Ohtani was in line with most expectations coming into the winter. The $700MM number isn’t truly real, but it’s helpful for the agents to describe it that way.

Regardless of the optics, Ohtani reportedly suggested the structure to multiple teams. The Giants and Blue Jays were willing to pay it, just like the Dodgers, but the Angels were not. The appeal from the player’s perspective is obvious. The $2MM salary is obviously paltry by baseball standards but Ohtani won’t be starving as he has millions coming in via endorsements every year. By kicking his payments down the road, he can ensure the club has more resources to put a winning team around him. And the contract reportedly has language that makes sure they use their savings towards making the club as competitive as possible.

They certainly held up their end of the bargain with the remainder of this offseason. As mentioned, the club’s rotation was snakebit last year. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin both had surgery last year and couldn’t be counted on to start 2024 healthy. Walker Buehler’s Tommy John was back in 2022 but he still missed all of 2023 and will be handled with care this year. Lance Lynn, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw all hit free agency after 2023, making starting pitching an obvious priority for the club.

Kershaw had hit free agency twice before and re-signed with the club but the Dodgers couldn’t rely on the same thing playing out this winter. Kershaw announced in early November that he had undergone shoulder surgery and wouldn’t be able to return until some point this summer. Ohtani wasn’t going to help either, as he underwent some kind of UCL surgery in September and will be limited to hitting only in 2024.

Despite already giving out a record-setting deal, the Dodgers seemed prepared for more, casting a wide net in their search for starting pitching. Throughout the winter, they were connected to high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Aaron Nola, mid-range guys like Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Jesús Luzardo.

Their first big rotation strike came via the trade market, as the Dodgers were able to land Tyler Glasnow from the Rays. With Tampa looking to cut payroll, the Dodgers took on both Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot, sending younger players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca the other way.

Glasnow has struggled to stay healthy in his career but has pitched at an ace level when healthy. He overcame a lengthy Tommy John absence in 2023, setting a new career high with 120 major league innings, putting up a 3.53 earned run average in the process. The Dodgers were clearly not scared by the past health issues, as the deal they made with the Rays was conditional on getting an extension done with Glasnow, which they eventually did. The combination of this year’s salary and the four they added on means they are committed to him for five years and $136.5MM.

But they weren’t done there. The market around Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to get hotter and hotter as the winter nights grew darker. That was a testament not only to his incredible skills but also his age. It’s hard to find an ace in free agency but it’s almost unheard of to get a 25-year-old ace. He comes with no experience in the big leagues but a 1.82 ERA over his seven NPB seasons and little doubt about his ability to handle the show (rough debut notwithstanding).

Due to that rarity, multiple clubs were willing to go over the $300MM mark to land Yamamoto, but the Dodgers ultimately sealed it with a 12-year, $325MM deal. But since Yamamoto had been subject to the posting system, the Dodgers will also have to pay a fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball. Such fees are calculated as a percentage of the deal, so a massive deal means massive fees. This contract led to a $51MM posting fee for the Buffaloes, meaning the Dodgers were effectively paying $376MM to get Yamamoto. Factoring in the club’s luxury tax status means the outlay is even higher. Even before that posting fee, it was the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher not named Ohtani.

They had one more move to remake their rotation, but it was far more modest than the Glasnow or Yamamoto acquisitions. They signed lefty James Paxton to a one-year deal. It was initially reported an an $11MM guarantee but was later changed to $7MM with incentives. The Dodgers apparently adjusted it down after Paxton’s physical, though they didn’t find anything to scuttle it entirely. Paxton has been oft-injured in recent years, hardly pitching at all from 2020 to 2022, but was able to make 19 starts for the Red Sox last year.

On the position player side of things, the most surprising developments surrounded Mookie Betts. Having spent the vast majority of his career in right field, the Dodgers moved him to the middle infield last year. He came up as a second baseman and had dabbled at that position earlier in his major league career, but the club was evidently impressed enough to make him their everyday guy at the keystone coming into 2024. More on that later.

With Betts moving to the infield, there was room for additions in the outfield. Jason Heyward was re-signed to a one-year deal, but he was effectively replacing himself. He had a nice bounceback for the Dodgers in 2023, being limited to a strong-side platoon role. The Dodgers were frequently connected to Teoscar Hernandez and were able to get him to sign a one-year deal as well, adding yet another potent bat to their lineup.

With Hernandez and Heyward set to join an outfield mix with James Outman, Margot started to seem a bit unnecessary. He could platoon with Heyward but they also had Chris Taylor on hand for that. They eventually decided to send Margot to the Twins and use the $4MM they saved to sign Enrique Hernandez instead. He can also hit from the right side and play the outfield, but his ability to play the infield gave them a bit of extra cover for Betts and third baseman Max Muncy.

But the position player mix had one more twist to come in spring. The Dodgers planned on having Gavin Lux, who missed all of 2023 due to a knee injury, as their everyday shortstop. But he struggled with some consistency in his throws this spring, an issue he’s had in the past. The Dodgers quickly decided to flip Betts and Lux, a move that Roberts described as “permanent for now.”

This put the Dodgers in the wild position of having committed over a billion dollars this winter (kind of) but somehow ending up with a 31-year-old right fielder as their everyday shortstop. Betts briefly played the position last year, getting into 16 games. That’s already the most ever games at the position for a guy after winning multiple Gold Gloves in the outfield, per Sarah Langs of MLB, highlighting how unprecedented this experiment is.

Many fans grew tired of hearing about the Dodgers this winter, as the club was incredibly active while many others sat on their hands. But the fact is that they were doing so many interesting things that it was hard to look away. No one had ever given a free agent $500MM before, let alone $600MM or $700MM. It turns out the Dodgers didn’t really do any of those either, but the bizarre deferral structure of Ohtani’s deal was itself interesting and unprecedented. They gave the largest guarantee ever to a pitcher that isn’t a two-way player. And they gave it to a guy with no major league experience. They put their MVP candidate right fielder at shortstop.

They did all of that and more, adding multiple bats and arms to a club that has already been a dominant force for over a decade. After getting Ohtani and making all of these other moves, the expectations will be even higher from now on. For the next 10 years, the club has Ohtani on the roster and is only paying him $2MM per year, a pittance in this league. All the chips are on the table and anything short of a World Series in that time will be counted by many as a failure.

How would you grade the Dodgers' offseason?
A 72.42% (1,859 votes)
B 12.12% (311 votes)
F 9.86% (253 votes)
C 3.97% (102 votes)
D 1.64% (42 votes)
Total Votes: 2,567

Oliver Ortega To Miss Three To Four Months After Undergoing Elbow Surgery

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The Astros announced to the beat, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that right-hander Oliver Ortega had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and will be shut down for three to four months.

Ortega, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Twins in October. He stuck on Houston’s roster all winter and made two appearances for them this spring. But manager Joe Espada announced a couple of days ago that the righty would be going to see a doctor, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. It seems the doctor determined surgery was necessary and that Ortega will be out of action for roughly half the season, at least.

The righty has 58 innings of big league experience between the Angels and Twins, with a 4.03 earned run average in that time. He has averaged between 95 and 97 miles per hour with both his four-seam fastball and his sinker but hasn’t translated that into big strikeout numbers in the majors, as he has punched out just 20.4% of major league hitters faced while walking 10.8%.

He’s generally been able to sit down more batters in the minors. He tossed 34 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year with a 1.82 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He still has an option so the Astros were likely hoping for him to serve as a lively depth arm who could be summoned to the majors when needed throughout the season. Unfortunately, he will now have to sit out a decent portion of the upcoming campaign.

The club will likely put Ortega on the 60-day injured list when they need a roster spot, but they also have several other candidates for such a move. Kendall Graveman is going to miss the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery while both Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are targeting midseason returns after they each underwent elbow surgery last year.

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