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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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Between a new owner, a new lease at Camden Yards, and one of the offseason’s biggest trades, the Orioles made plenty of news on and off the field this winter.  Now the question is whether the reigning AL East champions can take the next step forward to challenge for a World Series title.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $13MM
Total spending: $13MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Orioles entered the winter with pretty clear needs at the top of their rotation and bullpen.  Since Felix Bautista’s recovery from Tommy John surgery will sideline the closer for the entire season, the O’s targeted some of the biggest names in the free agent relief market (such as Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, and Aroldis Chapman) before finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal with Craig Kimbrel.

The veteran closer brings a possible Cooperstown-worthy resume and plenty of experience to the back to the Orioles’ pen, where Kimbrel will team with setup men Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe to hopefully get close to replicating the lockdown dominance of the Bautista-led 2023 relief corps.  Of course, some red flags are apparent — Kimbrel faded down the stretch in both 2021 and 2022, and he had a couple of ill-timed blowups when pitching for the Phillies in last year’s NLCS.  The righty is also entering his age-36 season, and is prone to allowing walks and hard contact.

An argument could be made that Baltimore could have aimed a little higher or gone with someone a bit steadier than Kimbrel, though with Bautista ostensibly returning in 2025, GM Mike Elias might not have wanted to make too lengthy of a commitment to a new reliever.  As it stands, Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee still represents the largest amount of money the O’s have given to a player since Elias took over the front office after the 2018 season.

While the Orioles’ lengthy rebuild precluded a lot of major spending, Elias continued to take a relatively measured approach to the payroll this offseason, even in the wake of a 101-win performance.  While the O’s checked in on such notable free agents as Hader or Aaron Nola, the team mostly focused on the trade market to address its pitching needs.  There were plenty of rumors linking the Orioles to top names like Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo, but amidst all these reports, Baltimore eventually landed another top trade candidate.

Corbin Burnes has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last four seasons, and his acquisition instantly solves the Orioles’ desire for a frontline ace.  Since Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 campaign, the trade also represents another shorter-term move for Elias — Burnes avoided arbitration with the Brewers by agreeing to a $15,637,500 salary, making him only slightly pricier than Kimbrel.

Trading for Burnes was a clear win-now move for the O’s, and a deal made possible by the team’s seemingly bottomless minor league talent pool.  The Brewers came away with a potential shortstop of the future in Joey Ortiz, an intriguing rotation or bullpen candidate in DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (the Orioles’ selection in Competitive Balance Round A, which are the only types of picks that can be traded).  This is a pretty significant trade package, yet from Baltimore’s perspective, even a top-100 prospect like Ortiz is expendable considering how the Orioles’ infield of the future looks to already be in place.

Between Jordan Westburg, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson, and soon-to-debut star prospect Jackson Holliday, the Orioles may have second base, third base, and shortstop locked up for the better part of the next decade.  This doesn’t even count Coby Mayo or Connor Norby knocking on the door of the big leagues, or incumbent utilitymen Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo still on hand as perhaps overqualified bench depth.

The outfield is also crowded.  Anthony Santander (a free agent next winter), Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays (free agents in the 2025-26 offseason) have Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Kyle Stowers pushing for playing time right now, let alone looming to eventually supplant the more experienced players as the Orioles’ starting outfield.

If the O’s were still rebuilding, it is easy to imagine a world where any of Santander, Mullins, Hays, Urias, or Mateo have been traded by now to let the kids play.  However, the Orioles are both trying to win in 2024 and not hamper the development of any of their up-and-comers.  That means someone like Stowers or Kjerstad might start the year at Triple-A in order to get regular at-bats rather than sporadic playing time in the majors, and the Orioles could use their bench spots for veterans more accustomed to part-time roles.

This could mean in-house names like Urias, Mateo, Terrin Vavra, and Ryan McKenna, or a familiar face back in the fold like Tyler Nevin (re-acquired from the Tigers in a January trade).  Baltimore also dealt for Nick Maton and signed Kolten Wong and Michael Perez to minor league deals, further adding depth just in case the young core needs a bit more seasoning.

All of this depth makes it easy to see how more trades could be coming at the deadline or earlier, once the Orioles have a better sense of their needs or which of their prospects may or may not be ready for prime time.  It isn’t out of the question that Elias could move earlier to obtain more pitching help, considering how Baltimore already has a couple of starters set to begin the season on the injured list.

Kyle Bradish emerged as the Orioles’ top hurler last year, yet his status is in question after an MRI revealed a sprain in his right UCL in February.  Bradish received a PRP injection and has been slowly building his arm up over the last five weeks, with decent progress to date but still a lot of uncertainty over when (or even if) he’ll be able to make a proper return this season.  John Means will also be sidelined for perhaps the first month of the season, as soreness in his surgically repaired elbow last October delayed Means’ offseason ramp-up work.

With two members of the projected rotation down, Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer will be joined by Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells for the time being.  Minor league signing Julio Teheran, waiver claim Tucker Davidson, trade acquisition Jonathan Heasley or Bruce Zimmermann figure to work as the top depth options before the Orioles think about dipping into their starting pitching prospect pool (i.e. Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson).

Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton were on the team’s radar as shorter-term signing options, and Mike Clevinger remains unsigned as a potential one-year stopgap.  Beyond Baltimore’s flirtation with Nola, there wasn’t much of a sense that the Orioles were going to splurge on a big free agent arm, so Jordan Montgomery still doesn’t seem all that likely of a possibility even though Montgomery is still available as Opening Day nears.

The rotation picture could gain clarity once more is known about Bradish or Means’ recoveries, and things will look more stable if Rodriguez takes another step forward in his second MLB season.  However, the question remains — could the Orioles have done more to shore up their pitching staff?  Even with the prohibitive costs of pitching (either via signing or trade) in mind, adding Burnes but losing Bradish and Means more or less leaves the O’s in the same place rotation-wise as they were at the end of 2023.

It may be too soon to second-guess Elias’ decisions given that more moves could still be made, and that the roster on the whole still looks very capable of contending.  It is also very much worth noting that the Orioles have increased spending, as their projected payroll (as per RosterResource) of $96.8MM is still a modest total in comparison to the rest of the league yet also a big jump from Baltimore’s $60.9MM payroll on Opening Day 2023.

Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Orioles’ season is whether or not the impending ownership change could give the front office some immediate extra spending capacity.  David Rubenstein would hardly be the first new owner to want to make a splash upon buying a team, and since the billionaire’s investment group could be fully approved to buy the Orioles within even the next few weeks, Rubenstein might well be interested in giving Elias the green light to be more aggressive at the deadline.  Boosting spending to even league-average levels would create a lot of extra spending capacity for the O’s to add talent, or (perhaps more importantly) start signing some of their cornerstone young players to extensions.

Even considering the ailing health of majority owner Peter Angelos, the legal drama between members of the Angelos family, and team chairman John Angelos’ cautionary statements about spending, it still counted as a surprise when reports emerged in January that the Orioles were being sold.  This news broke just as the O’s were finalizing a new lease agreement with state and city officials about remaining at Camden Yards, and while this new lease technically only runs for the next 15 years, at least another 15 years could be added to the deal if the franchise and Maryland officials can work out (prior to December 31, 2027) a development plan for a “ballpark village” type of project around Camden Yards.

The ownership change only cements the new era that was already dawning for the team in terms of the on-field product.  Baltimore fans had to endure a lot over the Orioles’ multi-year rebuilding period, but things couldn’t look much better for the fanbase over both the long term and in the immediate future.  The O’s look like legitimate World Series contenders even with the remaining questions in the pitching staff, and some work at the deadline might patch those few remaining holes.

How would you grade the Orioles' offseason?
B 48.92% (1,331 votes)
A 30.32% (825 votes)
C 15.69% (427 votes)
D 2.83% (77 votes)
F 2.24% (61 votes)
Total Votes: 2,721

Latest On MLBPA Leadership

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With under a week until the season starts and with three seasons remaining on the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, there’s been an atypical amount of drama pertaining to the MLB Players Association this week. Monday evening, reports emerged that a contingent of players has voiced a desire for executive director Tony Clark to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer, swapping him out for 33-year-old lawyer Harry Marino, the former head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers who negotiated the sport’s first minor league collective bargaining agreement alongside Meyer.

As one would expect, there are various lenses through which the current drama is being viewed. Reporting from Jeff Passan of ESPN, from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and from Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offer various glimpses at a layered, complex and — to some degree — contentious situation that could have historic ramifications on the state of labor within Major League Baseball. Chandler Rome of The Athletic, meanwhile, has published an exhaustive Q&A with Astros player rep and MLBPA executive subcommittee member Lance McCullers Jr. MLBTR readers seeking to get a full grasp of the current state of affairs are encouraged to read all of these pieces in full so as to best formulate an opinion on the matter, but some of the key takeaways are as follows.

Passan broadly suggests that Marino has worked to rally a contingent of players — primarily minor leaguers, whom he knows from his time working to unionize Minor League Baseball — to gain momentum toward a change in power. The now-former MLBPA counsel — Marino left the union last summer after brokering the minor league CBA — has also spent the spring conducting secret meetings with players who are their teams’ union representatives, per Passan. Marino has deliberately avoided clients of the Boras Corporation, Passan adds, wary of the perception that Scott Boras has a heavy influence over the union — Meyer specifically. (Meyer has vehemently denied any such allegations in the past.)

Marino himself refuted the notion that he’s orchestrated a coup attempt within the ranks of the MLBPA. In a statement to Passan, he laid out that players to whom he’s spoken want to know how their union dues are being spent and that they want a new direction for collective bargaining, while also conceding that there’s some understandable skepticism regarding his youth, experience and general unknown background among big leaguers who didn’t work with him during his efforts to establish the minor league union.

Marino’s critics, according to Passan, suggest Marino has ties to agencies in the same manner he alleges to be the case with Meyer/Boras — CAA and WME — and that they’re fearful he could be more amenable to a salary cap than prior union leaders, who’ve considered the issue a strict nonstarter. Others — particularly those whose teams were excluded from Marino’s series of meetings because of his trepidation regarding Boras — feel blindsided by his efforts and think they run counter to the unity he’s preached.

Discontent regarding Meyer isn’t necessarily new, however. Drellich and Rosenthal report there have been multiple requests to make a change over the years — the preference for Marino is simply the latest among them. That decision ultimately comes down to Clark, a fact that has rankled some members of the union. The Athletic’s report wonders whether frustration over Clark’s ostensible decision to side with Meyer despite an apparent majority in favor of implementing a change could lead to a vote on Clark’s status as the union’s executive director.

That’s far from a certainty. For one, Passan notes that Clark is well liked among players on a personal level — even among those who don’t always agree with the union’s direction. Moreover, there’s on-record support from multiple prominent union voices for Clark. In his Q&A with Rome, McCullers makes clear that he “absolutely [has] faith” in Clark and that many union members share his stance. The MLBPA just extended Clark’s contract by five years back in 2022. McCullers also praised the job Meyer has done, saying the MLBPA is in a “much better place” now than when Meyer was hired. He acknowledged that the deputy director’s tenure is up in the air at the moment but doubled down that the decision is Clark’s to make.

Of course, as many readers are aware, McCullers is a client of the Boras Corporation. That might prompt skeptics to be dismissive of the right-hander’s support for Clark and Meyer. But Passan also spoke to former MLBPA executive subcommittee member Andrew Miller — a client of Frontline Athlete Management — who echoed McCullers’ sentiments that he’s never seen or experienced anything that’d cause him to lend credence to the Boras narrative. Miller noted that Meyer was “always a professional,” even when he didn’t see eye-to-eye with him personally.

I believe what [Meyer] has been quoted as saying about it not being true,” said Miller. “It’s not something I ever saw that was worrying to me.”

One of Miller’s former peers on the union’s executive subcommittee, Daniel Murphy, offered a different take — without speculating about a possible Meyer/Boras relationship. Murphy spoke more broadly in favor of new leadership, telling Passan “…guys are finally seeing the truth.”

Boras, who’s already publicly taken shots at Marino and denied having the sort of cloak-and-dagger influence over the union as portrayed in that common narrative, again spoke candidly on the matter after yesterday’s Blake Snell press conference with the Giants. Nightengale quotes Boras again blasting Marino, this time for deliberately excluding his clients in a move he suggests won’t be well received by the union membership as a whole.

“Go to the union,” said Boras. “Be upfront. Let them know what your plan is. If it’s a better plan, we should all listen. We’re not denying information. But when you take a course of secrecy, selectivity, and denial of information from a category of major leaguers, you’re not going to be well-received by the totality of the group.”

Boras further pushed back on the narrative that he holds great influence in the union, noting that he thought the MLBPA accepted a deal too soon during the last wave of collective bargaining — particularly calling out the concessions the union made within the amateur draft. He also took a not-so-subtly veiled shot at Marino and his lack of experience in negotiations of this magnitude.

“I can tell you clear and convincingly that labor expertise and CBA direction is a science of itself,” Boras said. “It requires great expertise. You have to have experience. You don’t see Major League Baseball going in and placing inexperienced people to head a negotiation on their behalf.”

Suffice it to say, there’s a broad range of opinions on the current leadership within the union, on Boras’ influence (or lack thereof), and on how the group should move forward. Some of the Boras narrative could stem from the fact that five of the eight members of the executive subcommittee are Boras clients, but both McCullers and Miller rather firmly disputed the popular characterization. Boras did as well, firmly stating that he “operates for [his] players individually” and “not for the union.”

One notable takeaway comes from McCullers, in particular, who suggested that the entire characterization that the union is weak right now is misconstrued. Rather, McCullers points to the divide in opinions as a symbol of strength — as it’s indicative that member interest and involvement is at an all-time high.

“Typically in the past, it was like the player reps had to almost, I don’t want to say pull teeth, but almost had to really engage guys and really try to get a sense of what they feel and then go to the subcommittee,” McCullers explained. “…I think now, you’re seeing all players across the board — not even guys on the subcommittee, not even guys who are actually player reps — wanting to be involved and wanting to have their voices heard. I think that’s where this is coming from. Guys want a clear, decisive path that all players are behind. I think that’s good. Maybe people want to push the narrative that the union is weak, but at the end of the day, I think the union is strong.”

McCullers noted that the engagement spans all ranks of players, from minor leaguers on the bottom end of the earning scale to the game’s top-paid stars. He recalled an anecdote from the last wave of collective bargaining talks:

“Gerrit Cole is pounding the table on year two of his nine-year free agency deal … and literally said ‘I will miss the entire year if that’s what I have to do to help advance player rights in the CBA.’ He has nothing to gain from that. All he has is money to lose. You’ve seen guys over the history of our union, especially this last CBA, willing to make big sacrifices that matter to them and that affect them negatively only.”

For now, there’s no action that’ll be forced. Clark has heard opinions on Meyer’s status, but the decision on his deputy director’s future lies with Clark alone — for now. Drellich, Rosenthal and Passan all suggest that Marino could attempt to force a vote on Clark’s very status within the union — a full-scale powerplay to install himself atop the union hierarchy. That’d be potentially damaging in its own right, however, as a massive portion of his supporting contingent lies with minor league players and not established big leaguers who form the foundation of the union and who hold a larger number of executive board and executive subcommittee seats.

Time will tell whether Clark feels enough pressure to make a move or whether Marino and his supporters attempt to further force the issue. What’s clear right now is that there are multiple factions, each with their own view of the unrest among the union, even though there are those among the group who will contest that the increased engagement is a sign of strength and good sign for the long-term health of the organization, contrary as it may seem.

Keston Hiura Won’t Make Tigers, Has Upward Mobility Clause

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4:30pm: Petzold tweets that the upward mobility clause dates are March 26, June 1 and August 1.

4:10pm: The Tigers announced today that they have reassigned right-hander Trey Wingenter, left-hander Andrew Vasquez, catcher Anthony Bemboom, infielder Keston Hiura and outfielders Bligh Madris and Ryan Vilade to minor league camp, indicating that no one in that group will make the club’s Opening Day roster.

Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press takes a look at the moves and notes that the organization plans to have Hiura serve as the primary first baseman for Triple-A Toledo. However, the wrinkle in that plan is that his minor league deal has an upward mobility clause, also known as an assignment clause. There are multiple dates where the Tigers must ask the other 29 clubs if any is willing to give Hiura a roster spot. If any of them say yes, the Tigers either have to call him up themselves or trade him to the team that wants him.

That means that the Tigers can only keep him in Triple-A if the other teams all pass on the chance to take him. Petzold doesn’t provide specifics about the dates when the clause will be triggered, but he does note that one of them is next week.

The 27-year-old has had a feast-or-famine career thus far, as he has shown huge home run power but also a worrying penchant for strikeouts. He has 1,057 plate appearances at the major league level, all with the Brewers from 2019 to 2022. He struck out in 380 of them, a 36% rate which is well above par. The league-wide average was 22.7% in the majors last year, for reference. But Hiura did hit 50 home runs in that time.

Last year, Hiura was stuck in Triple-A. He hit 25 homers in 367 plate appearances at that level while keeping his strikeout rate to a more passable 24.5% clip. But he never got called back up to the big leagues and hit minor league free agency at season’s end, signing a minor league deal with the Tigers.

Here in the spring, he batted .323 for the Tigers with two homers in 34 plate appearances. He only struck out at a 23.5% rate but it’s a small sample size and spring stats are always to be taken with a grain of salt as opposing pitchers may not be major league caliber or may be experimenting as they get ready for the season.

Hiura doesn’t have a strong path to playing time in Detroit. He came up as a second baseman but was a poor defender there and spent more time at first base and left field last year. The Tigers have Spencer Torkelson entrenched at first for the foreseeable future. The designated hitter slot will likely be used to rotate their outfielders through, with Kerry Carpenter perhaps seeing the most time as a DH while Mark Canha, Parker Meadows and Riley Greene are on the grass. The bench will be taken up by backup catcher Carson Kelly and utility infielder/outfielders Andy Ibañez, Zach McKinstry and Matt Vierling.

The Tigers would surely like to keep Hiura around as depth but the other 29 clubs will have multiple opportunities to take a chance on him. The Rays just lost one player from their first base/designated hitter mix as it was reported today that Jonathan Aranda requires surgery for a broken finger. The Yankees may be without DJ LeMahieu to start the season after he fouled a ball of his foot. Hiura wouldn’t be able to step in as the everyday third baseman but could provide another bench bat while Oswaldo Cabrera covers the hot corner. The Angels have Nolan Schanuel as their first baseman despite the fact that he was just drafted last summer, and he’s also currently dealing with some back tightness.

There’s also the possibility for platooning, as Hiura has significant reverse splits in his career. He’s hit just .201/.283/.323 against southpaws for a 64 wRC+ but .253/.332/.508 against righties for a 122 wRC+, despite being a right-handed hitter. For any club that feels they are weak against righties, Hiura will be there for the taking. His deal comes with a $2MM base salary if he’s in the majors.

Kodai Senga Expected To Begin Throwing Program

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Mets ace Kodai Senga has been shut down for nearly a month after being diagnosed with a capsule strain in his right shoulder, but after a recent MRI he’s been cleared to return to baseball activity. Senga won’t start throwing immediately but could do so within the next week, manager Carlos Mendoza announced to reporters this morning (link via SNY’s Danny Abriano).

At the time of his injury, Senga was shut down for a minimum of three weeks. That was extended another week to ten days, but the latest MRI is far more encouraging, it seems. Once he’s cleared some strength tests, he’ll begin a throwing progression.

Senga’s initial diagnosis launched a fifth-starter competition in camp that was eventually won by right-hander Tylor Megill. He’ll slot into the five spot behind Opening Day starter Jose Quintana and the trio of Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and Luis Severino. Given that Senga will be picking up a ball for the first time in around a month, he’ll effectively need a full spring training to build up to game readiness. That means the Quintana-Manaea-Houser-Severino-Megill quintet could be in place for the first month or so of the season (pending other injuries on the starting staff, of course).

The 31-year-old Senga was a Rookie of the Year finalist in 2023, exceeding preseason expectations by rattling off 166 1/3 innings of 2.98 ERA ball with a 29.1% strikeout rate. Senga’s 11.1% walk rate could use some improvement, but he took little time cementing him as a quality big league starter. He’s in the second season of a five-year, $75MM pact spanning the 2023-27 seasons.

Dauri Moreta Undergoes UCL Surgery

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Pirates right-hander Dauri Moreta underwent surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament, reports Alex Stumpf of MLB.com, and will be out of action for the next 14 to 16 months. The righty is already on the Pirates’ 60-day injured list.

This news confirms what was already expected. Two weeks ago, it was reported that Moreta was dealing with a ligament injury in his right elbow. Though he and the club were going to gather more information, it was acknowledged that he was going to miss “an extended period of time.” When the Bucs signed Michael A. Taylor last week, they moved Moreta to the 60-day injured list as the corresponding move.

It seems that the further information gathering did nothing to give Moreta any hope of avoiding surgery. Based on the timeline from Stumpf, it seems like Moreta had full Tommy John surgery. That’s just speculation as the club has not yet made an official announcement, but the internal brace surgery usually comes with a lesser timeline of around a year.

Moreta, 28 next month, seemed to have a breakout year with the Pirates in 2023. He pitched 58 innings out of the bullpen, his largest workload in a major league season, and finished the year with a 3.72 earned run average. His 10% walk rate was a tad high, but he paired that with an excellent 31.8% strikeout rate.

He would have been looking to build on that here in 2024 but it will instead go down as a lost season. He’ll be aiming for a return in the middle of 2025, by which point he’ll be 29 years old. In the meantime, he’ll spend this season on the injured list, collecting major league pay and service time. For the Bucs, this means they will be without one of their more interesting young arms for the next year-plus.

Cubs To Begin Season With Wicks, Assad In Rotation; Smyly In Bullpen

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With Opening Day now one week away, the Cubs made some decisions on their starting pitching plan to begin the year. Manager Craig Counsell told members of the club’s beat, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that left-hander Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad will have rotation jobs to open the campaign. Veteran lefty Drew Smyly, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen. In a separate tweet, Montemurro confirms that righty Jameson Taillon will start the season on the injured list. In terms of the catching group, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times relays that both Jorge Alfaro and Joe Hudson have been told they won’t make the team but are staying in big league camp for now.

The Cubs came into camp with a front four of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga and Taillon, with one spot available for guys like Wicks, Assad, Smyly, Hayden Wesneski or Caleb Kilian. In early March, Kilian was diagnosed with a teres major strain and will be out for several months, taking him out of the competition.

Taillon was dealt much smaller issues but they nonetheless slowed his progression. He initially had some soreness is his calves and that was followed by some lower back tightness. He still has not appeared in an official Spring Training game and will begin the season on the IL. He told Bruce Levine of WSCR on the weekend that he was planning to throw off a mound this week, which shows some progress, but he’s likely still a few weeks away from readiness.

With Taillon out of action, there were two open spots at the back of the rotation, which will go to Wicks and Assad. Wicks is one of the club’s top pitching prospects and he made his major league debut last year with a 4.41 earned run average in seven starts. In 91 1/3 innings of minor league work, he had a 3.55 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

He only struck out 16.3% of hitters in his first taste of the majors, but in a fairly small sample of 34 2/3 innings. For what it’s worth, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA this spring, though with a modest 16.9% strikeout rate. But he has also limited his walks to 2.8% and it’s a small sample of 17 1/3 innings. He’ll get a chance to take a step forward at the major league level to start the season. He still has a full slate of options, so the Cubs could easily send him back to the minors when Taillon is healthy if they so choose.

Assad has a bit more experience, having served in a swing role for the Cubs over the past two years. He has a 3.06 ERA in 147 innings over 41 appearances, including 18 starts. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate are both slightly worse than league average but he’s kept 44.7% of balls in play on the ground and was in the 78th percentile of qualified pitchers last year in terms of average exit velocity. He has allowed seven earned runs in nine innings this spring. He has a couple of options and could wind up in the minors later but the Cubs have used him as a long reliever out of the bullpen in the past.

That long relief role could perhaps be taken by Smyly, who was also in that role for a time last year. The Cubs signed him to a two-year, $19MM deal last offseason but he struggled in 2023 and wound up moving to the bullpen on multiple occasions. He finished last year with an even ERA of 5.00, but it was 5.62 as a starter and 2.51 out of the ’pen. That latter number was in a small sample of 28 2/3 innings but the Cubs will be hoping his stuff will play up in shorter stints. Spring results are to be taken with a grain of salt but he hasn’t done much to win back a rotation job lately, with a 7.71 ERA, 15.1% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 11 2/3 innings.

His past experience as a starter could have him working multi-innings stints as a reliever, but he could also be utilized as a situational lefty. The only other southpaw reliever currently on the roster is Luke Little, who has just 6 2/3 innings of major league experience and notable control issues in the minors.

As for the catchers, it’s not too surprising they won’t make the club. The Cubs have Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya set to be their primary catching tandem. Gomes is a 12-year veteran coming off a solid season while Amaya has been a notable prospect for a while and made his major league debut last year. It’s unclear if either Alfaro or Hudson have opt-outs in their minor league deals, but it seems they will be staying in camp for the time being.

Royals Name Alec Marsh Fifth Starter; Jordan Lyles To Open Season In Bullpen

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The Royals have settled on a fifth starter, with manager Matt Quatraro announcing Thursday that right-hander Alec Marsh will begin the season in the rotation (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). The 25-year-old former second-round pick beat a group of Jordan Lyles, Angel Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV and Anthony Veneziano for that spot. Lyles and Zerpa will both begin the season in relief roles, per Quatraro. (The Zerpa decision was announced last night.) Lynch and Veneziano, meanwhile, were optioned to Triple-A Omaha last night and will presumably work as starters there.

Kansas City entered camp with four of their five rotation spots set. Lefty Cole Ragans, acquired for Aroldis Chapman last summer, enjoyed a huge breakout showing following that swap and will be the team’s Opening Day starter. He’ll be followed in some order by offseason signees Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as returning right-hander Brady Singer.

[Related: Offseason in Review: Kansas City Royals]

Per Quatraro, Marsh simply outperformed the rest of the field this spring in what the team considered a genuine competition (X link via Rogers). The right-hander has indeed been sharp, pitching 14 innings with a 1.93 ERA, 17-to-4 K/BB ratio and massive 68.8% ground-ball rate. That performance, per Quatraro, “exceeded what we could have hoped for.” Lyles, perhaps his primary competition, didn’t make things particularly competitive. In two official appearances, the veteran pitched five innings and was tagged for five runs on eight hits (four homers) and a walk with four strikeouts.

The 6’2″, 220-pound Marsh ranked as the Royals’ No. 14 prospect entering the 2023 season, per Baseball America. His big league debut included 74 1/3 innings of 5.69 ERA ball. Marsh made eight starts and another nine relief appearances. He fanned a quarter of his opponents but also issued walks at an 11.4% clip. Marsh was exceptionally homer-prone, yielding an average of 1.94 homers per nine frames thanks to a paltry 34.6% ground-ball rate.

Marsh debuted a new-look sinker late in the 2023 season, throwing the pitch for the first time on Aug. 27. He used it only 10-15% of the time for his first few outings with the new offering, but tossed it at a 27.4% clip in his final two outings of the season. The work on the new two-seamer has paid off in a small sample of spring appearances — at least if Marsh’s eye-popping grounder rate is any indication. He can’t be expected to maintain that level, which would make him one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers, but it’s an encouraging trend for a pitcher who sported just a 30.8% grounder rate prior to unleashing that new pitch last season.

If Marsh can step up and solidify himself as a rotation cog, he’ll be a long-term option. The Royals still control him for a full six seasons. Marsh only picked up 94 days of service time last year, meaning he’s not even on track for Super Two eligibility. He won’t be arbitration-eligible until the conclusion of the 2026 season and can’t become a free agent until the 2029-30 offseason. Future optional assignments could impact either trajectory, but the organizational hope is surely that Marsh will hit the ground running and won’t need further seasoning in Triple-A.

As for Lyles, the move to the ’pen isn’t how he or the baseball operations staff envisioned things going. The veteran righty inked a two-year, $17MM contract last offseason in hopes that he’d fill the same innings eater role in which he’d found success with the 2022 Orioles. Instead, Lyles was rocked for 6.28 ERA. He took the ball 31 times and soaked up 177 2/3 frames, but his starts were too often non-competitive for a 56-win Royals club. Lyles’ 16% strikeout rate was one of the lowest of his career, and while he maintained a very strong 6% walk rate, he also allowed an average of 1.98 long balls per nine frames — third-highest in MLB among qualified pitchers.

Lyles is earning $8.5MM this season, and the Royals still have some inexperience in their rotation in the form of Marsh and Ragans. Sophomore struggles from either pitcher and/or injuries elsewhere in the rotation could lead to Lyles starting some games even if he begins the year in a long relief role.

Rays Trade Greg Jones To Rockies

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The Rockies announced the acquisition of infielder/outfielder Greg Jones from the Rays in exchange for minor league left-hander Joe Rock this morning. Colorado designated outfielder Sam Hilliard for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Jones, 26, was the Rays’ first-round pick back in 2019 — the 22nd overall selection that year. He climbed as high as sixth on the team’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America, heading into the 2022 season, but he’s seen his stock dip since that time. Jones hit just .238/.318/.392 in Double-A that season and followed with a 2023 campaign that saw him bat .244/.318/.432 between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s touted as an 80-grade runner (on the 20-80 scale) and excellent athlete with a plus arm but has defensive concerns at shortstop. Tampa Bay began getting him work in the outfield last year in order to bolster his versatility.

The switch-hitting Jones still has two minor league option years remaining but increasingly looked like he’d been pushed down the organizational depth chart — both in the infield and in the outfield. With the Rockies, he’ll have a clearer path to playing time, particularly in the outfield, where elite-fielding Brenton Doyle is ticketed for regular center field work but will need to improve upon last year’s woeful debut showing at the plate. In theory, an outfield alignment with both Doyle and Jones would give the Rox two elite runners who could cover considerable ground in Coors Field’s expansive outfield grass.

Jones could also give the Rockies some long-term cover in the infield. Touted prospect Ezequiel Tovar is slated to get a continued audition as the everyday shortstop this season but has yet to prove he can hit in the big leagues. At second base, Brendan Rodgers is looking to bounce back from a rough showing in his return from a shoulder injury. He’s only controlled for two more seasons, though, so it’s feasible that Rodgers could emerge as a trade candidate this summer if he’s able to recapture something closer to his 2021-22 form. That’d open further opportunities for Jones.

For the time being, Jones will have an outside chance at cracking the Rockies’ roster. Manager Bud Black told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (X link) that he couldn’t rule out an Opening Day nod for his team’s newest acquisition but also acknowledged that the window to take a look at the speedster is quite short.

In exchange for their 2019 first-rounder, the Rays will receive the Rockies’ 2021 Competitive Balance Round B pick. Rock, 23, was the No. 68 overall pick that summer and climbed as high as the Triple-A level last year — just for a couple innings late in the season.

Heading into the 2024 season, Rock ranked 26th among Colorado farmhands at Baseball America. He spent the bulk of the 2023 season in Double-A Hartford, where he logged 90 innings with a 4.50 ERA, an impressive 27.3% strikeout rate, a solid 8.1% walk rate and a 44.4% grounder rate that’s a couple ticks better than average. Rock was plagued by a .343 BABIP and proved slightly homer-prone (1.30 HR/9), but it was a generally encouraging season for the Ohio product, who’ll give the Rays some upper-level pitching depth and could make his way to the majors at some point in 2024.

MLB.com’s already-updated prospect rankings slot Rock into the No. 19 in Tampa Bay’s system. Scouting reports from BA, MLB and FanGraphs all give Rock the chance for three average or better pitches — two-seamer, slider, changeup — but note that his arsenal is undercut by below-average command. That hasn’t been apparent yet through Rock’s minor league walk rates, but there’s an important distinction between “control” (consistently throwing strikes) and “command” (precisely locating the ball within the zone).

If Rock has more of the former than the latter, that could be exploited by more advanced hitters who take advantage of mistakes within the zone. Then again, the Rays have a reputation for maximizing pitcher performance, so it’s always possible he’ll find another gear following a change of environs and exceed the modest back-of-the-rotation projection he draws on most scouting reports.

For the Rays, adding an upper-minors, close-to-MLB-ready arm like Rock is plenty sensible. Tampa Bay just lost Taj Bradley for a yet-to-be-determined stretch as the promising young righty deals with a pectoral strain. They’ll also be without Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Shane McClanahan to begin the season — and likely for the entire season in McClanahan’s case. Rasmussen had an internal brace procedure last July. Springs had Tommy John surgery last May. McClanahan had Tommy John in August. Touted young right-hander Shane Baz is also still working his way back from late-2022 Tommy John surgery.

Tampa Bay signed old friend Jake Odorizzi to a minor league deal earlier this month after the Bradley injury. He could be the favorite to take the fifth spot in the rotation early in the season, but he signed late enough that he might not be ready for an Opening Day roster spot. As it stands, the Rays have four pitchers locked into rotation spots: Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot. At least early in the season, swingmen Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski could make some spot starts. Both were stretching out to three innings in camp even before Bradley’s injury.

Hilliard only just returned to the Rockies earlier this month after the Orioles placed him on waivers. Baltimore had claimed him from Atlanta earlier in the offseason. He appeared in 40 games and hit .236/.295/.431 through 78 plate appearances with the Braves, fanning in an eye-popping 42.3% of his plate appearances. A heel injury wound up costing him the bulk of the 2023 season.

From 2019-22, Hilliard appeared in 214 games as a Rockie, playing all three outfield spots and batting a combined .212/.294/.423 with 29 homers, 15 steals, a 10% walk rate and an ugly 32.7% strikeout rate over a total of 639 plate appearances. Strikeouts have long been an issue for Hilliard, who touts an impressive .265/.346/.570 slash and 62 homers in just 942 Triple-A plate appearances but has punched out at an unsightly 28.5% clip at that level. The Rockies will have a week to trade Hilliard, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report the Rockies and Rays were swapping Rock for Jones.

Rays’ Jonathan Aranda To Undergo Surgery On Broken Finger

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Rays infielder Jonathan Aranda suffered a broken ring finger while fielding a grounder yesterday and will undergo surgery to place a pin in his finger, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He’s expected to miss at least four to six weeks recovering. He’ll open the season on the major league injured list.

It’s an unfortunate setback for the 25-year-old Aranda, who’s torn through minor league pitching at every stop but hasn’t yet had an opportunity to carve out a regular role at the MLB level in a crowded Rays infield. He’d been slated for a largely regular role to begin the year, splitting time between designated hitter and perhaps at first base. He’ll now head to the injured list instead.

Aranda has logged 190 big league plate appearances, but they’ve come in short stints and with sparse playing time. He’s batted just .212/.311/.345 with four homers, an 11.1% walk rate and 28.4% strikeout rate in that time. That output pales in comparison to the production Aranda has turned in as a regular in the minors. He slashed .325/.410/.540 at the Double-A level before crushing Triple-A opponents at a .328/.421/.565 clip in 899 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s slugged 43 homers, walked at a 12.1% clip and fanned at a 20.8% clip in that 199-game sample of Triple-A action.

Aranda’s injury will likely open the door for more at-bats for righty-swinging Harold Ramirez and/or fellow right-handed-hitting Curtis Mead. The former has been a plus hitter in two seasons with the Rays, slashing .306/.348/.432 (123 wRC+) in 869 trips to the plate from 2022-23. There was considerable talk of a potential Ramirez trade over the winter, and while nothing can be fully ruled out prior to the season for a Rays club that’s ever-active on the trade market, Ramirez seems quite likely headed for a third straight year with Tampa Bay.

Mead, meanwhile, made his big league debut in 2023 and hit .253/.326/.349 in 92 plate appearances of his own. The 23-year-old Aussie has ranked as one of the game’s top overall prospects for the past couple seasons and carries a stout .296/.385/.520 slash with 13 homers, 29 doubles, a pair of triples, a 12.2% walk rate and an 18% strikeout rate in 377 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s a bat-first prospect who’s spent time at third base, second base and first base, with his bat-to-ball skills and plus raw power standing as his carrying tools. Since both Mead and Ramirez are bat-first players, slotting either into a semi-regular DH role could have some appeal for the Rays — at least until Aranda returns. That could set the stage for a potential DH platoon, while Mead could also platoon with lefty-swinging second baseman Brandon Lowe in the infield as well.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates’ ongoing rebuild showed some encouraging signs last year but it didn’t prompt the front office to go out and win the offseason. They made some modest additions as their focus remains clearly on the future, but did sign another core member of their club to a sizable extension.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)
Total spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

2023 was the fifth straight losing season for the Bucs, but they at least showed some hints that maybe the rebuild was nearing its end. They started out hot and were leading the division for a time, holding that spot until the middle of June. They eventually faded and finished the year at 76-86, not too shabby, especially considering they were without shortstop Oneil Cruz for the vast majority of the season.

Some fans may have hoped for that semi-surge to be followed by an aggressive winter, but it ended up being fairly modest, at least in terms of additions. Starting pitching was a clear priority coming into the offseason after the Pittsburgh rotation posted a collective earned run average of 4.88 in 2023. That need only grew when Johan Oviedo required Tommy John surgery in November, putting him out of action for the entire 2024 season.

The Bucs seemed to cast a fairly wide net in their pursuits of starting pitching, though they were mostly connected to guys who could be had fairly cheaply. Jack Flaherty was a target and he could have perhaps been signed for a modest one-year “prove it” deal, but he eventually got it from the Tigers instead. Yariel Rodríguez and Shota Imanaga had plenty of interest but were somewhat unproven. The Bucs seemed to sniff around, but Rodríguez got a five-year, $32MM deal from the Jays, with a modest $6.4MM average annual value. There were rumors Imanaga could get $100MM, but his market softened and the Bucs got involved, though he ended up settling for four years and $53MM from the Cubs. They were also interested in the controllable pitchers of the Marlins, particularly Edward Cabrera, but nothing got done there either. Those talks carried into spring training, but Cabrera is now dealing with a shoulder issue. Whether that impacted talks isn’t known, but it’s certainly plausible.

In the end, the Pirates added a couple of veterans at a modest cost. Martín Pérez was signed to a one-year, $8MM deal,while Marco Gonzales was acquired via trade. Gonzales is making a salary of $12MM this year but will only be paid $3MM by the Pirates, through convoluted means that are explained by here by Ethan Hullihen of Bucs On Deck.

Those two could perhaps add some veteran stability to a fairly young and inexperienced rotation, but neither is coming off an especially strong season. Pérez had a 4.98 ERA as a starter for the Rangers and got bumped to the bullpen late in the year. Gonzales required surgery for a nerve issue in his forearm after 10 starts with a 5.22 ERA.

The Pirates seemed set at catcher coming into the winter, as prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both cracked the major leagues last year. But similar to the Oviedo situation, it was reported in December that Rodríguez would need UCL surgery and miss the entire 2024 season.

Less than two weeks before that news came out, the club had signed Ali Sánchez to a major league deal, perhaps indicating they already suspected the Rodríguez news was coming. Regardless, they had interest in Gary Sánchez as well but eventually added Yasmani Grandal on a modest deal to bolster the depth with Rodríguez out.

Davis didn’t catch much last year, only spending two innings behind the plate as Rodríguez handled the bulk of the work. Davis spent far more time in right field, as it seemed the organization had a bit more faith in the defensive abilities of Rodríguez. But the injury has forced Davis to don the tools of ignorance again this year. He has seemed to handle himself well in spring, both behind the dish and standing beside it, having hit .306/.381/.694. If he succeeds back there all year, the club may have a decision to make once Rodríguez is healthy, though many clubs split time between two different catchers these days.

First base was also a target, as Carlos Santana had most of the playing time there last year, but he was traded to the Brewers at the deadline. The club had some reported interest in bringing Santana back and was also connected to Josh Naylor of the Guardians, but they nabbed Rowdy Tellez to be their primary first baseman. He’s coming off a down year but hit 35 homers in 2022, so he’s a fine bounceback pickup at $3.2MM.

They also brought back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen for $5MM to serve as a designated hitter and veteran leader. He’s been quite open about his desire to continue playing in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career so it wasn’t a surprise to see the two sides link up an another one-year pact. The next home run he hits will be the 300th of his career, so Bucs fans will have a fun milestone chase early in the season.

Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh bolstered its bullpen with a surprising $10.5MM splash on Aroldis Chapman, which actually counts as their largest free agent deal of the winter. He should be able to lengthen the bullpen after a return to form in 2023. The Pirates will surely be happy if Chapman ends up part of a push for contention late in the year, but if that doesn’t happen, they could hope to follow the path of Kansas City. The Royals signed Chapman last year and flipped him to the Rangers at the deadline, netting Cole Ragans in return. He’s earning nearly three times as much in 2024 as he did in 2023, so he won’t be quite the bargain for trade partners this time around, but high-end relief pitching is always in demand regardless.

As the slow offseason left various players looking for jobs well into February and even into March, the Pirates were able to take advantage by signing Michael A. Taylor for a modest $4MM sum. He was reportedly looking to match Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, who each got $10.5MM, but he was one of many players who got boxed out by the drying up of spending in recent months.

The Bucs should be the beneficiary of Taylor’s poor fortune, as he’ll give them an elite defensive center fielder who will strike out a bunch but also likely pop a few home runs. By having former center fielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in the corners, they could have strong defense in all three spots with regularity.

The most significant deal of the winter was for a player already on the roster, as the Pirates signed Mitch Keller to a five-year extension worth $77MM. He already had agreed to a $5.4425MM salary for 2024, which was maintained as part of the extension, so it added four years and $71.5575MM in new money. Keller was slated for free agency after 2025, so it extended the club’s window of control by three years.

That has been the M.O. for the Bucs in recent years. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest deals given out by the club since Ben Cherington took over as general manager in November of 2019 have all been extensions. Bryan Reynolds got a two-year, $13.5MM deal to avoid arbitration before eventually signing his seven-year, $100MM deal. Ke’Bryan Hayes got $70MM over eight years and now Keller is signed long-term as well. Meanwhile, they haven’t signed any free agent to a multi-year deal, with Chapman’s $10.5MM being the largest deal given on a one-year pact.

In a sense, that shows that the club has stayed the course. They have been building for the future for a long time, and their priorities are shown in that disparity of investment. Cherington said in December that he anticipated a payroll increase relative to last year, which has technically come to fruition. RosterResource lists this year’s payroll at $85MM. That’s 29th in the league, ahead of only the Athletics, but Cot’s Baseball Contracts had the Bucs at just $73MM last year.

The focus is still on the future, and the fortunes of the club will be largely be written by those already in the system. The club has shown their faith in Reynolds, Hayes and Keller as they continue to monitor Cruz, Davis, Rodríguez and Suwinski. Unproven players like Jared Triolo, Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Termarr Johnson and others could factor into the mix this year or in the near future. Skenes, last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, seems likely to join Keller, Perez and Gonzales in the rotation as soon as this summer.

The Pirates are still arguably the weakest team in the National League Central. Both the Projected Standings at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them finishing in the basement. But the division is fairly wide open and doesn’t have a clear favorite, which means there’s a path for the Pirates if things break right, either this year or down the line.

The club will likely have a different offseason someday, when they truly feel contention is at hand. But for now, it’s been another winter of modest investment in the present and a heavy focus on the future.

How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?
C 42.14% (1,128 votes)
B 34.18% (915 votes)
D 12.59% (337 votes)
A 6.24% (167 votes)
F 4.86% (130 votes)
Total Votes: 2,677

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