Third baseman Nolan Arenado is a logical trade candidate with the Cardinals planning a reset year. As the Cards assess the interest, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that Arenado is willing to move to first base with a new club, or at least play the hot corner less often.
Arenado has long voiced a desire to compete, which is what spurred his trade from Colorado to St. Louis years ago. He also declined an opportunity to opt-out of his contract after 2022, seemingly content with the Cardinals’ status as perennial contenders. But their performance has sagged in recent years, causing them to pivot to a focus on player development and less on immediate contention, at least for 2025 but perhaps longer.
With that near-term future outlook, it makes sense to consider trading some players that aren’t part of the long-term plans. Arenado is turning 34 years old in April and has three years left on his contract, so there’s logic to the club making him available. He has a no-trade clause but it makes sense that he would have some openness to waiving it, given his desire to compete and win. Woo reports that Arenado has not demanded a trade but was receptive to the idea when president of baseball operations John Mozeliak discussed it with him.
It’s not uncommon for players to be willing to change positions in order to expand their possible landing spots. This offseason, free agents like third baseman Alex Bregman and shortstop Willy Adames are reportedly willing to move to other infield spots. Both are strong defenders at their positions, but it’s a sensible tactic in keeping one’s market as wide open as possible.
With Arenado, it makes a little bit less sense. Over the past couple of years, his offense has declined but he has still been a valuable player thanks to his third base defense. He has slashed .269/.320/.426 over the two most recent campaigns, offense that translates to a 104 wRC+, barely above league average. However, FanGraphs has still calculated him as being worth about three wins above replacement in each those seasons (2.7 in 2023 and 3.1 in 2024), thanks to his strong glovework.
Arenado has never played a position other than third, though he probably wouldn’t have much trouble moving across the diamond since first base is generally considered a less demanding position. But that would also deprive him of his best asset at this point in his career, unless his bat can rebound in a big way.
His willingness to move could perhaps be a factor if a club already had an excellent third baseman, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Bluesky link) speculating that the Padres are one such club. That team has Manny Machado, a strong third baseman in his own right, entrenched at third base as a franchise cornerstone. He is under contract for almost another decade, through 2033.
They have a bit less certainty at first base. Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arráez got most of the playing time there in 2024 but both are capable of playing second base. The Padres had Xander Bogaerts at the keystone for much of 2024 but he moved back to shortstop when Ha-Seong Kim got injured, and Kim is now a free agent. Arráez is also not a great defender, at secord or first base, so perhaps he would best fit in the designated hitter slot.
Theoretically, it’s possible that the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Arenado from left to right, with Arráez in the DH spot. From time to time, Machado could get a breather as the DH, with Arenado moving to third and Arráez playing first.
There are also other reasons why the fit could make sense, as Arenado previously played for Padres manager Mike Shildt when Shildt was skipper in St. Louis. Arenado is also a Southern California native. That has often led to rumors of him eventually being traded to the Dodgers, but the fit there is a bit trickier. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani taking up the DH spot, Freddie Freeman at first and Max Muncy at third. Theoretically, they could acquire Arenado and trade Muncy, though it’s unclear if they have any desire to do so. Muncy’s defense is a bit behind Arenado’s but he’s been better at the plate lately, having slashed .218/.342/.481 over the past two years for a 124 wRC+.
It would perhaps be simpler for the Padres to just acquire a first baseman and for Arenado to go to a club with a gap at third base. The Red Sox are reportedly thinking of moving Rafael Devers to first and could replace him at the hot corner by acquiring Arenado. Teams like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Brewers, Tigers, Mets and Phillies have been connected to free agents like Bregman or Adames, or are at least speculative fits for a new third baseman. Arenado’s no-trade clause means that he would get to determine whether or not he goes to those clubs and it’s unknown how he would feel about them in terms of their ability to contend or how much their respective geographic locations would matter to him.
On top of all that, the Cardinals will have to assess what other clubs are willing to offer in return. Though the Cards are planning to run a lower payroll in 2025, they don’t really need to move Arenado’s contract in order to accomplish that. RosterResource already projects them to be about $35MM lower than they were in 2024, so cost savings shouldn’t be the priority here. To that end, Woo reports that they won’t move Arenado just to move him or dump salary.
A trade would presumably only come together if the Cardinals feel they are getting something of value in return. Perhaps they could eat some the remainder of Arenado’s contract in order to line up on a deal. He is owed $74MM over the next three seasons though some of that money is deferred and the Rockies are also still on the hook for $5MM this coming season. In addition to adding some young talent in the trade, the Cards could also use their reset year to give Arenado’s playing time to players like Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese or others.
For a team like the Padres, like they might prefer the Cardinals to eat some money, since their payroll has been such an issue in recent years. They dialed back spending after 2023, dealing Juan Soto to the Yankees, and avoided the competitive balance tax. Going into 2025, RosterResource projects their payroll to be about $40MM above 2024 levels before making any significant offseason moves, with their CBT a bit over the line already as well. On the other hand, they have traded away a lot of prospects in recent years and might not want to further deplete their farm just to awkwardly wedge Arenado into their infield mix.
Woo’s reporting also adds that no deal is close to being completed, but she adds that things could pick up at the Winter Meetings, which take place from December 8 to 11.
