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The Opener: World Series, Judge, White Sox

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As the World Series continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. World Series Game 3:

The Dodgers won both of their home games over the weekend, but after a travel day yesterday the series will resume this evening on the Yankees’ home turf at 8:08pm local time. Right-hander Clarke Schmidt will be on the mound for New York after posting an impressive 2.85 ERA in a season shortened to just 16 starts by injury. In the postseason so far, Schmidt has drawn two starts and sports a 3.86 ERA with six strikeouts and three walks in 9 1/3 innings of work.

His opponent this evening will be Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler, who struggled to a 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts this year and was shelled for six runs in five frames during his NLDS start against the Padres. Despite that shaky track record this year, Buehler did manage to put up four scoreless innings while striking out six in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Mets. On offense, meanwhile, the Dodgers are currently expecting to have star slugger Shohei Ohtani back in the lineup after a shoulder injury Saturday night gave baseball fans a scare.

2. Can Judge break out of his slump before it’s too late?

With the question of Ohtani’s status likely answered, the other likely MVP winner in the series is facing his own set of questions. Aaron Judge has struggled to a meager .105/.280/.325 slash in 50 plate appearances across 11 postseason games this year. Any hitter can have a tough stretch in a sample that small, of course, and Judge even had two separate 11-game stretches not dissimilar to this one back in April alone. His slump has deepened even more since the World Series began, however, as he’s struck out six times in nine trips to the plate over the last two games while collecting just one hit. Can Judge get back to his dominant regular season form in time to help the Yankees fight back from their current 0-2 deficit?

3. Is the White Sox managerial search heating up?

This weekend saw some noticeable movement on the managerial front in Chicago. Three candidates were noted to be out of the running for the White Sox vacancy yesterday, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested last night that the Sox were taking a “hard look” at Rangers associate manager Will Venable for the role. Heyman cautioned that there was no indication that an agreement was close just yet, but the report nonetheless adds to the sense of movement that’s begun to surround the search for the South Siders’ next manager. Other candidates who are not yet known to have been eliminated from the running include current interim skipper Grady Sizemore, Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz, former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, former Angels skipper Phil Nevin, Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso.

Dodgers Expected To Be In On Juan Soto’s Free Agent Market

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The Dodgers’ focus on Juan Soto is currently directed towards figuring how to get the slugger out during the remainder of the World Series, but once the offseason begins, the club could be looking to add Soto to its own lineup.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers are interested in Soto and will start more of a full-fledged pursuit “if he’s interested” if coming to Los Angeles.

As Heyman notes, the Dodgers’ deep pockets have allowed them to at least check in on virtually every major free agent in recent years, so if anything, it would be unusual if L.A. didn’t have Soto on its offseason wish list.  The Dodgers are also one of the few teams that can reasonably meet Soto’s asking price, which is widely expected to be the most upfront guaranteed money ever given to a baseball player.  The “upfront” caveat is necessary since Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal is so heavily deferred that the contract is worth around $437.8MM in present value, and Soto’s next deal is expected to surpass the $500MM mark.

According to RosterResource, the Dodgers already have roughly $257.2MM committed to their 2025 payroll, as well as a $253.1MM estimate on their luxury tax number.  The latter again puts the Dodgers over the tax threshold ($241MM) for next season, and naturally adding Soto for a minimum of a $50MM average annual value would put the club over the highest tax penalty tier of $301MM.  Since Los Angeles has already been a tax-paying team for the last four seasons, crossing the $301MM threshold would more than double the size of the team’s tax on any overages beyond the $241MM mark.

Of course, the luxury tax has clearly not been a major concern for the Dodgers in their pursuit of top-tier talent.  With Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Will Smith signed through the rest of the decade and Freddie Freeman and Tyler Glasnow both signed through at least 2027, the Dodgers won’t be ducking under the tax line any time soon, and the financial penalty is offset by the simple fact that the team is a revenue-generating juggernaut.

There are plenty of obvious reasons why Soto would have his own interest in joining a perennial contender like the Dodgers, though geography continues to be the lingering question surrounding Soto’s impending free agency.  While Soto and Padres owner Peter Seidler made some headway in extension talks prior to Seidler’s passing a year ago, Heyman repeats the long-held belief that Soto would prefer to play on an East Coast team, all things being equal.  This could make the Yankees or Mets the favorites to sign him this winter, as the two New York teams can better fit Soto’s preferences of both location and contract.

While the Yankees and Mets alone could generate a nice bidding war, Soto and agent Scott Boras would certainly have a vested interest in keeping other teams in the hunt, be it the Dodgers or other potential suitors like the Giants, Blue Jays, or Nationals.  If the Dodgers perceive that Soto’s interest in coming to L.A. is fairly limited, the team could easily move onto any number of other options on the free agent market.

For instance, re-signing Teoscar Hernandez would be much less expensive than signing Soto, and Hernandez is already a known quantity in Los Angeles and a big offensive force in his own right.  Heyman also figures the Dodgers will look to add another big pitcher to its injury-ravaged rotation, even though Ohtani, Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and others are expected to be healthy by Opening day.

Latest On White Sox Managerial Search

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Reports from earlier today removed a couple of names from consideration as the next White Sox manager, though the team’s search continues to be seemingly pretty fluid.  Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz is a new name in the mix according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (links to X), while interim manager Grady Sizemore is still in the running and Tigers bench coach George Lombard is also no longer a candidate.

Since the White Sox and Marlins are the only teams currently looking for a new skipper, many of the same candidates are appearing in both searches, with Albernaz’s name the latest crossover.  Albernaz has already interviewed in Miami and is considered one of the favorites for the position, as he has previous working relationships with both president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and assistant GM Gabe Kapler.

Like the White Sox, however, it isn’t yet entirely clear how close the Marlins might be to making an actual hire, or if any other candidates might still emerge.  Lombard and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough both interviewed with Miami and are apparently still under consideration for that job, even if Chicago is moving in another direction.

Albernaz (who turns 42 later this week) just completed his first season in Cleveland, after working as the Giants’ bullpen/catching coach over the 2019-22 seasons.  This makes him a known quantity to White Sox pitching advisor Brian Bannister, who was San Francisco’s director of pitching for the last three of Albernaz’s seasons in the Bay Area.  The Giants job marked Albernaz’s first role on a big league coaching staff, as he spent the previous five seasons as a manager, coach, and coordinator in the Rays’ farm system.

The 2024 season was also Sizemore’s first time on a Major League staff, and his first pro coaching job at any level.  After Pedro Grifol was fired in August, Sizemore was something of a surprise choice as Chicago’s interim manager, and he led the team to a 13-32 record in the final stretch of what ended up as a singularly disastrous 121-loss season.  GM Chris Getz said Sizemore would continue to be a candidate within the team’s search for a full-time bench boss, but Sizemore’s coaching contract runs through the 2025 season, so he might well be back anyway in some capacity if he isn’t retained as manager.

The list of known candidates still in the running for the White Sox position include Sizemore, Albernaz, former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, former Angels manager Phil Nevin, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso.

Shohei Ohtani Suffers Shoulder Subluxation

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5:15PM: Roberts told ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (links to X), the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (X link), and other reporters that Ohtani will work out and take swings at Yankee Stadium later tonight, hitting off a tee and in the batting cage.  The shoulder issue seems to be about pain tolerance for Ohtani, and Roberts said “if he feels good enough to go, I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be in there” for the Game 3 lineup.

TODAY, 1:47PM: Roberts told Karl Ravech of ESPN this afternoon that Ohtani is “in a great spot” following last night’s injury and that he’s expected to be in the lineup for Game 3 tomorrow evening in New York.

Oct 26: A heart-stopping moment occurred for Dodgers fans in the bottom of the seventh inning tonight when Shohei Ohtani attempted to steal second base. Ohtani was tagged out by Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres but appeared to suffer an injury on the play and was escorted off the field by a team trainer. After the game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that Ohtani had suffered a “little” shoulder subluxation, or partial dislocation. The star will undergo additionally testing tomorrow, and though Roberts emphasized that he did not want to speculate on the severity of the injury until those tests were completed, he noted that they’re “encouraged” by initial tests and that he’s “expecting” Ohtani to be back in the lineup for Game 3 on Monday.

It’s a potentially devastating blow to the Dodgers as they look to capture their first full-season World Series championship since 1988. While Ohtani has been unable to pitch this year after undergoing elbow surgery last September, it’s impossible to call his first season with the club anything other than an absolute success. The 30-year-old superstar slashed an eye-popping .310/.390/.646 (181 wRC+) in 159 games for the Dodgers this year and became the first player in MLB history to steal at least 50 bases (59) and hit at least 50 home runs (54) in a single season. Ohtani’s dynamic play has also been a key factor in the club’s postseason run to this point, as he had slashed an impressive .277/.414/.489 with three home runs and ten RBI during the playoffs this year entering tonight’s game.

Whether the Dodgers will have that explosive offensive talent in the lineup for the remainder of the series remains to be seen. While the severity of Ohtani’s injury is not currently clear, an injury of any significance will leave he and the Dodgers forced to balance the star’s health with their goal of closing out a World Series championship they’re just two victories away from clinching. Other players on the Dodgers’ roster, including fellow star Freddie Freeman and veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas, have played through injuries this postseason in hopes of bringing a World Series home to Los Angeles. If the Dodgers take a similar course of action with Ohtani and his shoulder issue is fairly mild, it’s possible to imagine him being back in the club’s lineup when the series moves to New York for Game 3 on Monday night.

That’s far from a guarantee, however, and it’s equally easy to imagine the issue being severe enough to leave Ohtani at risk of missing the rest of the series. If the injury proves to be severe enough for the Dodgers to remove Ohtani from their playoff roster, outfielders Kevin Kiermaier and James Outman would appear to be the most likely options for the club to consider activating in place of their superstar on the playoff roster. Meanwhile, Ohtani vacating the DH spot in the lineup would allow the club to offer additional rest to Freeman, who has played through the postseason on a sprained ankle and could benefit from the additional time off his feet. In such a scenario, Max Muncy would likely slide over from third base to cover first for Freeman, opening up the hot corner for Enrique Hernandez and second base for Gavin Lux.

Of course, with just five months left to Opening Day 2025, a particularly severe injury could not only leave Ohtani unavailable for the remainder of the World Series but potentially impact his Spring Training and readiness for the start of next year. Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story underwent what was believed to be season-ending shoulder surgery back in April following an initial diagnosis similar to Ohtani’s after Story awkwardly landed on his shoulder during a play in the field. Surgery wound up being necessary due to structural damage in his shoulder and came with an initial six-month recovery timeline, though Story managed to return ahead of schedule in just five.

The Dodgers are quite familiar with the perils of dislocated shoulders, as during the 2020 NLCS Cody Bellinger suffered a dislocated right shoulder that he played through in their last World Series run but ultimately required surgery on. That procedure came with a recovery timeline of just ten weeks but Bellinger infamously struggled badly over his next two seasons with the Dodgers, leading to questions regarding whether or not he returned to action before he was fully healthy. However severe Ohtani’s injury turns out to be, one silver lining for the Dodgers is that Ohtani’s left shoulder is the one at issue, meaning his pitching arm is likely to be minimally impacted by the issue as he looks toward a return to the mound in 2025.

Red Sox Hire Dillon Lawson As Assistant Hitting Coach

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The Red Sox announced that Dillon Lawson has been promoted to the role of assistant hitting coach.  Lawson had been with the Sox for the last year as the club’s minor league hitting coordinator, and he’ll now take over the role left open by Luis Ortiz, who was one of six coaches Boston announced wouldn’t be returning for the 2025 season.  Last week, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam suggested that Lawson was seen as a logical candidate for the assistant hitting coach job.

This will be Lawson’s second stint on a big league coaching staff, after his previous job as the Yankees’ hitting coach for the 2022 season and the first half of the 2023 season.  Somewhat infamously, Lawson became the first coach longtime Yankees GM Brian Cashman ever fired partway through a season, as Cashman installed former MLB veteran Sean Casey as New York’s new hitting coach as the team resumed play after the All-Star break.  The change didn’t work, as the Yankees actually had a lower wRC+ (92) under Casey than under Lawson (96).

The 39-year-old Lawson had a long coaching career in college ball, including a year as the University of Missouri’s hitting coach in 2017 that was sandwiched between his first two jobs with a Major League team.  Lawson worked as a hitting coach for two separate Astros Single-A affiliates in 2016 and 2018, and then moved on to join the Yankees as a minor league hitting coordinator for the 2019-21 seasons.

Peter Fatse is Boston’s lead hitting coach, with Ben Rosenthal and now Lawson acting as assistants.  The Red Sox ranked in the top ten in most offensive categories in 2024, though a team-wide slump over the last six weeks of the season curtailed Boston’s late bid for a wild card spot.

Rob Manfred Discusses Rays’ Stadium Plans, Timeline

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The Rays’ offseason has so far been dominated by the questions swirling around Tropicana Field after it was badly damaged by Hurricane Milton earlier this month. While the damage has not yet been fully assessed, it seems certain that the club won’t be able to start the season in their home ballpark in 2025 and there remains the possibility that local officials decide not to repair the field at all with a replacement for the Trop planned to be constructed in time for Opening Day 2028.

The unusual situation leaves plenty of questions about the Rays’ short- and mid-term future, even as the club knows its long-term home for 2028 and beyond remains in St. Pete. Potential temporary homes such as Durham, North Carolina and Montreal have already been shot down, and while MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has expressed a preference for the Rays to remain in their current market, local officials in St. Petersburg have cautioned that they’ll be “financially responsible” as they attempt to find an avenue to keep the Rays in the area for the 2025-28 seasons.

Manfred made additional comments about the Rays’ situation to The Athletic’s Evan Drellich recently that for the first time helped to crystalize a timeline for a plan to be put in place. While previous discussions of the club’s future have simply noted that it would likely take several weeks for damage to the Trop to even be fully assessed, Manfred told Drellich that a plan needs to be in place before the end of the year.

“I think by Christmas they gotta have a pretty good plan in place,” Manfred said, as relayed by Drellich. “and there’s a lot to that.”

While two months isn’t necessarily a long time for the club to map out a new plan for where it will play its games in 2025, even that relatively short time frame could have an impact on the Rays’ offseason as the club attempts to court prospective free agents who won’t even know where they’d be playing and living during the season if they were to sign with Tampa. Of course, the Rays have always been more prolific on the trade market than in free agency, and that once again figures to be the case this winter as they explore ways to upgrade their lineup and rumors percolate that they could deal from their rotation this winter. In the event that the lack of a clear home ballpark impacts the club’s recruitment in free agency, it’s possible they’ll need to focus even more on the trade market than usual this offseason.

Turning back to the stadium questions at hand, Manfred suggested the league would be able to “make it work” in a minor league park by adjusting not only the minor league team’s schedule but also potentially even the Rays’ schedule as necessary. Using a minor league park or Spring Training complex could be a way for the club to remain in their current market even if city decides against repairing the Trop. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes that the Phillies’ and Yankees’ respective spring training complexes in Clearwater and Tampa seem to be the most likely local options for the Rays to utilize as a temporary home.

Of course, using a minor league facility runs the risk of a clash with the MLBPA over any negative impacts the move might have on players. MLBPA head Tony Clark recently discussed the union’s role in the process, noting that they’re limited in terms of their ability to impact the team’s choice of facility but can ensure that the ballpark’s amenities are up to major league standards and ensure the players are not put into “harm’s way” by the move. One example of how the MLBPA’s role works can be found in the similar situation playing out on the west coast due to the Athletics’ temporary relocation to Sacramento, where the club initially planned to utilize artificial turf but will now continue using grass on the field in 2025 following intervention by the union due to concerns that artificial turf would retain too much heat.

White Sox No Longer Considering Clayton McCullough, A.J. Ellis In Managerial Search

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The White Sox have been on the hunt for their new manager for some time now, but Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported this morning that the club is “getting closer” to making a hire for the position. In particular, Rogers reports two names that are no longer in the running for the job: Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough and Padres special assistant A.J. Ellis.

McCullough has been a popular managerial candidate in recent years, coming up in last year’s managerial searched conducted by the Mets, Brewers, and Guardians after previously being a finalist to manage the Royals before the club ultimately selected Matt Quatraro. That widespread interest as McCullough as a candidate has continued this year, as in addition to Chicago’s interest in him he’s also known to have interviewed for the Marlins’ managerial vacancy last week, making him one of just three candidates confirmed to have conducted an interview. Prior to his stint with the Dodgers as first base coach, he previously held the role of minor league field coordinator in L.A. and managed in the minor leagues with the Blue Jays.

Ellis, meanwhile, is a veteran of 11 MLB seasons but was always a bit of an unusual candidate for the job given that he has no managerial or coaching experience in the majors or minors. Since retiring from his playing career, Ellis has served as a special assistant to A.J. Preller’s front office in San Diego with a focus on player development. That development experience could obviously be useful to a club like the White Sox, who lost 121 games this year and seem destined to focus on rebuilding with young, up-and-coming players over the next few seasons. Per Rogers, however, Ellis removed himself from the running due to family considerations.

The pair join Rangers bench coach and offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker on the list of candidates who are no longer in the running for the position. Even without those three in contention for the role, the White Sox still have a number of names rumored to be in the mix for the job. Former Angels manager Phil Nevin and outgoing Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, and veteran manager Buck Showalter have all been floated as names under consideration for the role, but the White Sox are also evidently considering a number of names without previous big league managerial experience. Even with McCullough, Ellis, and Ecker no longer in the mix, Chicago is stil known to have interest in Rangers associate manager Will Venable, and Tigers bench coach George Lombard, Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehman, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso as they look to turn the page on their disastrous 2024 season with a fresh voice in the dugout.

World Series Notes: Rodon, Flaherty, Cole, Phillips

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While the big news from last night’s World Series game was the shoulder injury suffered by Shohei Ohtani, he wasn’t the only player dealing with an ailment during yesterday’s game. As noted by SNY’s Andy Martino last night, Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon was pitching through a blister on one of his fingers during his start last night, which saw him surrender four runs on six hits as he struck out three in 3 1/3 innings of work.

Blister issues can cause problems with a pitcher’s grip on certain pitches. In the regular season, it’s not uncommon for a pitcher dealing with a blister to be sidelined for a short trip to the injured list until a blister fades and they can resume pitching unimpeded, but Rodon downplayed the seriousness of the issue to Martino last night as he suggested the blister was “not a big deal” and that it won’t impact his availability going forward in the World Series as the Yankees look to fight their way back from an 0-2 deficit. Rodon went on to note that he’s dealt with blister problems before in his career, though this is the first time he’s had one this year.

Overall, Rodon’s sophomore season with the Yankees has been a bit of a mixed bag. The southpaw posted a decent 3.96 ERA (104 ERA+) and struck out 26.5% of opponents while making 32 starts, but he also surrendered a career-high 31 homers and has struggled to this point in the postseason. In 17 2/3 innings of work across four postseason starts, Rodon has struggled to a 5.60 ERA overall, albeit with two strong performances against Cleveland in the ALCS that saw him strike out 15 of the 41 batters he faced. Fans in New York are surely hoping that they’ll get that version of Rodon in Game 6 if the series if the series makes it back to Los Angeles, though for now the team will have to focus on breaking through for their first win of the series.

More notes from the postseason…

  • Rodon isnt the only starter who’s been dealing with a day-to-day injury in this series, as Dodgers right-hander Jack Flaherty dealt with some hamstring tightness during his start in Game 1 of the World Series, according to manager Dave Roberts. As relayed by the Los Angeles Times’s Mike DiGiovanna, Roberts does not believe the issue to be a serious one. That’s good news for the Dodgers, as the club’s injury-plagued rotation would have few options to replace Flaherty if he were to go down. The right-hander struggled through the division series against the Padres and the championship series against the Mets but looked quite good in his start against the Yankees as he struck out six in 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball. Flaherty is next expected to take the ball in a potential Game 5 on Wednesday, following tomorrow’s start by Walker Buehler and a bullpen game on Tuesday.
  • Flaherty’s opponent in the series is expected to be Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, and Martino reports that the Yankees currently intend to keep it that way as the club “has not considered” the possibility of starting Cole on short rest in Game 4 of the series if the Yankees are facing elimination. While Martino adds the possibility cannot be completely ruled out, it would be a major departure from the way Cole has been utilized throughout his career. The 34-year-old righty has pitched on short rest only once before in his career, during the 2020 ALDS against the Rays, and while he was effective in that start the Yankees may be less willing to risk his health now that Cole half a decade older and wrapping up a season that saw him miss half the year due to elbow troubles.
  • Turning back to the Dodgers, right-hander Evan Phillips was left off the club’s World Series roster amid a number of nagging ailments including arm fatigue as well as tightness in his lat, triceps, and biceps. Phillips discussed his situation with DiGiovanna in more detail yesterday, noting that an MRI revealed nerve irritation in his right shoulder. Phillips described the issue as “nothing majorly concerning,” however, and suggested that the decision to leave him off the roster primarily had to do with the fact that the Dodgers wouldn’t be allowed to replace him if he were to more seriously injure himself since he was already injured before the series began. Phillips hasn’t ruled out the possibility he could be added to the roster if another pitcher is injured, though Roberts has previously suggested veteran righty Joe Kelly might be first in line as an injury replacement.

Where Can The Tigers Add Offense This Winter?

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The Tigers enjoyed an incredible late-season surge and rode a strong September to not only an 85-win campaign but a playoff berth that brought them within one game of their first ALCS appearance since 2013. With a bona fide ace in Tarik Skubal and a core of talented young hitters like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows in place, it seems clear that the time has come for the club to be aggressive in supplementing that impressive core. To that end, president of baseball operations Scott Harris highlighted two major needs for the club at his end-of-season press conference: a quality right-handed bat and starting pitching help.

For a club that was reluctant to rely on any starting pitchers aside from Skubal in the postseason, finding rotation upgrades this season should be fairly easy. Adding a bat to the lineup, however, could be a bit more complicated given the club’s current construction on offense. The aforementioned trio of Greene, Carpenter, and Meadows are all outfielders, though Carpenter typically finds most of his playing time as a DH rather than on the outfield grass. The club is also deep in other potential outfield options, such as Matt Vierling, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Wenceel Perez, and Akil Baddoo.

While it’s certainly possible to squeeze a big bat such as Tyler O’Neill or Teoscar Hernandez into the lineup in right field, doing so would be a sub-optimal solution given the club’s deep cache of outfield options. Second base seems like an even more unlikely spot for an upgrade given the club’s six-year commitment to Colt Keith at the keystone, which they made last winter prior to his MLB debut. With a 97 wRC+ overall during his rookie campaign thanks to a .285/.338/.437 slash line in the last three months of the season, Keith certainly seems to have earned another crack at regular at-bats at the position.

That leaves few obvious places where the club could upgrade its offense. Perhaps there’s room for an offensive upgrade behind the plate, and rumors that Willson Contreras could be available as the Cardinals look to reduce payroll this winter would make for an on-paper match. As impressive as Contreras’s 133 wRC+ over the past three seasons has been, however, he’s a lackluster defender behind the plate and is headed for his age-33 season next year. Given that, it’s reasonable to wonder if Detroit would prefer to stick with the defensively excellent (if offensively lacking) Jake Rogers and youngster Dillon Dingler behind the plate next year. Dingler struggled in his first taste of big league action this year, but impressed with a 139 wRC+ at Triple-A this year and could improve offensively as he gets his feet wet in the majors.

That leaves the infield as perhaps the most likely place for the Tigers to find the right-handed offensive upgrade they desire, and free agency figures to play host to a handful of intriguing options should they be willing to spend. Willy Adames would certainly be a substantial upgrade to the club’s current shortstop mix, though adding a nine-figure commitment at the position when Javier Baez is still guaranteed $73MM over the next three seasons could be difficult to stomach. Meanwhile, third baseman Alex Bregman stands out as perhaps the other top free agent infielder and could be a somewhat clean fit for the Tigers if they’re uninterested in holding out a position for 2022 first-rounder Jace Jung, who posted a 102 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action this year but struck out at a 30.9% clip.

There is one other position where the club could clearly upgrade in free agency, and it’s one that would be shocking to suggest a few short years ago: first base. 2020 first-overall pick Spencer Torkelson was a consensus top-five prospect in the game prior to his MLB debut, dubbed virtually from the day he was drafted as a can’t-miss hitter with superstar potential. That hasn’t panned out to this point, however, as his offensive contributions through his third season in the majors have actually been below average overall. In 361 career games in the majors, Torkelson has hit just .221/.300/.392 with a wRC+ of 95. Perhaps that would be acceptable for a player with more defensive value, but Torkelson has generally been a below-average defender at one of the least demanding defensive positions on the diamond to this point in his career, leaving him with just 0.8 fWAR accumulated in his big league career to this point.

Of course, that’s not to say that there’s no reason for optimism regarding Torkelson. Perhaps the most significant factor in the slugger’s favor is his age, as he’ll play next year at just 25 years old. By comparison, rookie first baseman Michael Busch delivered a solid inaugural season (119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR) with the Cubs this year but is currently just two weeks shy of his 27th birthday. Fellow 1-1 pick Adley Rutschman had just 410 big league plate appearances under his belt on his 25th birthday, a mark Torkelson eclipsed in just the second game of his age-23 season.

It’s also worth noting that Torkelson has managed to deliver quality offense over shorter stretches. Just 13 months ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote about Torkelson’s mid-season improvements at the plate that allowed him to slash an impressive .242/.322/.500 (124 wRC+) with 20 home runs in his final 80 games of the 2023 campaign. A similar late-season surge occurred when he was called back up in mid-August of this year following a mid-season demotion: over the final six weeks of the season, Torkelson hit .248/.338/.444 with a wRC+ of 125.

That type of offense would make him exactly the sort of impactful right-handed slugger the Tigers would like to add if he was able to sustain it over a full season. That hasn’t come to pass so far, however, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press recently suggested things could be trending toward the sides parting ways. Petzold noted that “all signs point” to Torkelson no longer being the long-term solution at first base with a possibility that the club changes gears as soon as this winter.

Should the club decide they’d be better off pursuing a more established, reliable bat in free agency this winter, there’s a handful of options worth considering. Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, and Anthony Santander all have first base experience and could help to transform Detroit’s lineup, though Santander’s experience at first is somewhat limited. Alonso, in particular, seems to be a strong fit for the club’s needs if they decide to move on from Torkelson. He’s never posted a wRC+ below 120 in a season and will be just 30 years old next year, offering a consistency that’s difficult to match, and sensational campaigns in 2019 and 2022 saw him flash the MVP-candidate upside Tigers fans were surely dreaming on when they first drafted Torkelson.

Pivoting towards another player at first base would leave the club with a dilemma regarding what to do with Torkelson. It’s possible that semi-regular at-bats could be found for him even with an addition at first base; Carpenter has typically sat against most left-handed pitchers and played more than half of his games in the outfield this year, leaving room for Torkelson to start find frequent at-bats at DH, including starts against virtually every southpaw.

The club might be better off exploring what’s out there on the trade market, however. After all, Torkelson’s youth, pedigree, and impressive results at the big league level in short stretches could make him an attractive change-of-scenery candidate for an up-and-coming team with a hole at first base like the Nationals, or even a more established club with a need at the position like the Astros. If a club was willing to offer big league pitching in return for Torkelson’s services, that would surely be a difficult proposition for the Tigers to turn down if they were already eyeing an upgrade over Torkelson at first base.

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