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Scott Sharp Withdraws Name From Giants’ GM Search

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As the Giants continue their search for a new GM to take over for Pete Putila and serve as Buster Posey’s second-in-command following his installation as president of baseball operations, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that one name under consideration has withdrawn himself from the mix for the job: Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, who Rosenthal notes is removing himself from the pool of candidates due to family considerations.

Sharp, 51, currently serves as a senior vice president and assistant GM for Kansas City. The longtime Royals exec got his start in the club as a the club’s assistant director of player development in 2006 and since then has steadily climbed the organizational ladder, also serving as the director of minor league operations and director of player development in Kansas City before eventually becoming assistant GM in 2015. Prior to his time with the Royals, Sharp served as a scout for the Pirates, Dodgers, and Rangers organizations.

That strong background in player development is likely the reason the Giants had interest in Sharp for their GM role. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted this past week, Posey has made it clear that he’s looking for a candidate with an extensive scouting background for the GM role. That’s led the Giants to pursue plenty of candidates with resumes similar to the one Sharp brings to the table, including Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens, former Dodgers VP of amateur scouting Logan White, and former Nationals director of player development De Jon Watson.

Posey’s desire for a GM with a strong background in scouting is sensible given his own relative inexperience on the front office side of the baseball world; the 37-year-old is just three seasons removed from his playing career and since then has served on the club’s board of directors after purchasing a minority share in the club two years ago. While he’s had a hand in the club’s operations since then, working to recruit free agents and even taking on a significant role in the recent extension negotiations with third baseman Matt Chapman, it’s unclear how much of a hand Posey had in the day-to-day operations of the Giants prior to his ascent to the president of baseball operations gig. With that being said, Slusser indicates that experience in contract negotiations and arbitration hearings isn’t necessary for Posey’s GM given assistant GM Jeremy Shelley’s experience in that role.

Turning back to Sharp, it seems as though the longtime Royals exec may only be interested in making a change if he would be stepping into an opportunity to lead an organization. Rosenthal’s report suggests that Sharp has interest in leading baseball operations for an organization at some point in the future, though it’s unclear whether or not the fact that he would answer to Posey was a factor in his decision to withdraw his name from consideration for the Giants’ GM job. For the time being, however, it seems that Sharp is content to remain with the Royals on the heels of a surprising 86-win campaign that saw the club return to the postseason for the first time since their 2015 World Series championship.

Could The Twins Deal From Their Positional Depth This Winter?

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Despite a lackluster 82-80 record in 2024 fueled by a September collapse that saw the club go just 9-18 during the season’s final month, the Twins are nonetheless poised to enter the coming offseason with one of the deepest groups of position players in the majors. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, utility man Kyle Farmer, and outfielders Max Kepler and Manuel Margot all appear ticketed for free agency, but even after those departures Minnesota figures to have more potentially starting-caliber position players than it can fit in the lineup.

Of course, an excess of talent is never a bad thing. That’s particularly true for a Twins club that relies on Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis as key players despite their substantial injury histories. With that being said, strong showings from players like Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner in 2024 figure to open the door to more regular playing time while the likes of Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Austin Martin remain bench options.

In addition, 2022 first-round pick Brooks Lee has nothing left to prove at Triple-A even after struggling through his first taste of big league action, while top outfield prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins both reached the upper levels of the minors with late-season call-ups to Triple-A and Double-A respectively. While it’s unlikely that Jenkins cracks the big league roster in 2025, Lee should be expected to be part of the major league positional group after appearing in 50 games this year and it’s not hard to imagine Rodriguez finding himself in the majors sometime next year either.

While the club’s positional group certainly has its flaws, they nonetheless came together to post a 107 wRC+ that ranked ninth in the majors and placed them right in line with other playoff-caliber offenses like those in Philadelphia (108 wRC+) and Queens (109 wRC+). That could suggest the Twins would be best served leaving their hitting corps largely in tact this winter, but doing so would pose a major problem; the club is expected to have virtually no money to spend this winter, and the pitching staff is in desperate need of improvements.

RosterResource projects the club for a $139MM payroll as things stand headed into next year, and while The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman notes that club officials have suggested payroll won’t be cut in 2025 relative to the already-diminished levels it landed at in 2024, this past season’s payroll stood at just $130MM. That means the Twins likely need to trim payroll by nearly $10MM even before factoring in the needs of the club’s pitching staff. While Gleeman floats trades of relatively pricey veterans such as right-hander Chris Paddack and catcher Christian Vazquez, who are due a combined $17.5MM in 2025, but Gleeman suggests that convincing a team to take on either of those salaries in full could require the club to attach some amount of prospect capital in order to get a deal done.

Given those considerable restrictions, the Twins may need to get creative to make significant additions to their pitching staff. Perhaps that could mean parting ways with versatile utility man Willi Castro, who has impressed with 5.6 fWAR and a 108 wRC+ during his two years with Minnesota while playing every position on the diamond except catcher and first base. Valuable as Castro has been for the club, he’s set to become a free agent following the 2025 season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz to make $6.2MM in his final trip through arbitration this winter. That price tag combined with a lack of long-term club control could make Castro expendable for the Twins, and his better-than-average bat in conjunction with the ability to play capable defense all over the diamond (including shortstop and center field) should make him an attractive piece to virtually any club looking to add to its positional corps.

Of course, another option would be to deal a controllable player who offers less in salary relief but could either bring back a larger return or be parted with fairly painlessly. Dealing away Kirilloff would undoubtedly be selling low on a former first-round pick, but would save the club his projected $1.8MM salary and could theoretically bring back an arm to deepen a lackluster bullpen that ranked just 19th in the majors by ERA despite solid work from the club’s back-end duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Alternatively, it’s possible to imagine the club parting ways with an aforementioned breakout piece such as Larnach or Miranda if they believe this winter to be an opportunity to sell high on a player who has been inconsistent to this point in their major league career, with such a move being particularly palatable if the club believes a rebound season is coming for a hitter who struggled in 2024 like Kirilloff or Julien. It’s possible that parting ways with one of the club’s more promising young players could allow them to bring in a capable rotation piece, bolstering a starting staff that ranked just 22nd in the majors last year despite respectable rookie performances from youngsters like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa.

Rockies To Lower Payroll In 2025

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In an article earlier today examining the Rockies’ plans for the upcoming offseason, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reported that the club intends to lower their payroll headed into the 2025 campaign. Per Saunders, those plans to lower payroll come with an expectation that the club will shop second baseman Brendan Rodgers, lefty starter Austin Gomber, and righty starter Cal Quantrill on the trade market this winter.

The news surely comes as a frustrating turn of events for Rockies fans as the club comes off its second consecutive season with more than 100 losses. While the club enjoyed encouraging steps forward for young players like Michael Toglia, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar, and Ryan Feltner, that positive momentum was in some ways offset by a major step back for 2023 standout Nolan Jones and the retirement of stalwart DH Charlie Blackmon. Now, a lowered payroll and the likely departure of three stable regulars from the club’s roster leave the Rockies with even more question marks ahead of an offseason that already featured plenty of uncertainty.

While Saunders doesn’t get into specific numbers regarding the club’s payroll plans for 2025, he does note that the club’s $147.3MM payroll for 2024 is expected to come down next year even after factoring in the departure of Blackmon, who made $13MM this year. That would suggest a payroll that maxes out in the $130MM range and could ultimately clock in somewhere below even that diminished figure. That leaves the Rockies with very little room to maneuver this winter given that RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just a hair under $130MM in 2025 already.

Given that, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the club would look to trade some of its more expensive arbitration level players like Rodgers, Gomber, and Quantrill. The trio is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz to make a combined $20.1MM in their final trips through arbitration this year. The bulk of that comes from a $9MM salary due to Quantrill, who Saunders suggests the Rockies are more likely to move on from than Gomber. Trading Quantrill and Gomber would free up a combined $14.6MM in the club’s budget but also give the club the opportunity to open up starts for young hurlers Saunders notes the Rockies see as knocking on the door of the majors, including ninth-overall pick of last year’s draft Chase Dollander as well as southpaws Sean Sullivan and Carson Palmquist,

Quantrill and Gomber were both the subject of trade rumors prior to this summer’s deadline, though neither ultimately wound up changing teams. As the pair head into their final seasons of arbitration eligibility, Quantrill has more big league success on his resume of the two. The right-hander put up fantastic numbers in Cleveland from 2021 to 2022, first as a swing man and then as a full-time starter. Across those two seasons, Quantrill pitched to a 3.16 ERA with a 4.10 FIP in 72 appearances, including 54 starts. With that being said, however, the righty’s 2023 season with the Guardians left much to be desired (5.24 ERA in 19 starts) and led the club to designate him for assignment last November, at which point he was dealt to the Rockies.

Quantrill’s 2024 campaign in Colorado was something of a mixed bag. The righty managed to make 29 starts and throw 148 1/3 innings, and his 4.98 ERA was roughly league average (93 ERA+) after factoring in the inflated offensive environment at Coors Field. With that being said, Quantrill also posted the highest walk rate (10.5%) of his career against a below-average 16.8% strikeout rate. Making matters more concerning for potential suitors on the trade market is the fact that Quantrill not only didn’t pitch significantly better away from Coors Field this year, he was actually slightly worse on the road with a 5.04 ERA in 15 away starts. Quantrill’s lackluster overall numbers come in large part thanks to a brutal second half that saw him surrender a 7.94 ERA in his final eight starts of the year before he was sidelined at the start of September by triceps inflammation, leaving plenty of question marks regarding what can be expected from him in 2025.

Gomber’s 2024 campaign was similar to Quantrill’s in many ways. He made 30 starts for the first time in his career and threw a career-high 165 innings, and his 4.75 ERA (97 ERA+) was roughly league average when factoring in the inflated offense in Colorado. Gomber’s strikeout rate (16.7%) was also lackluster, though Gomber does have a few notable advantages that could make him more attractive to potential trade partners. For one thing, he held opposing hitters to an excellent 5.5% walk rate, good for the ninth-lowest figure among all qualified starters this year. Additionally, Gomber’s performance in away games was much stronger than Quantrill’s as his ERA went down from 4.97 in home games to 4.55 on the road. Those positive factors combined with Gomber’s reasonable $5.6MM salary projection for next year could make him an attractive trade target for clubs in need of cost-controlled pitching next year.

Rodgers could prove to be the most attractive trade piece of the trio. The 28-year-old has generally been a roughly league average bat in recent years, slashing a solid .270/.321/.421 since the start of the 2021 season. That’s good for a 91 wRC+ after adjusting for the park factors Rodgers benefits from at Coors, but his value isn’t tied exclusively to his bat as he’s also a quality defender at second base. Rodgers won the NL Gold Glove award for his work at the keystone in 2022 thanks to an eye-popping +22 Defensive Runs Saved, though after he missed much of the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery he hasn’t looked quite the same this year with a lackluster -4 DRS and a similar -3 Outs Above Average. Even so, Rodgers is a solid if unspectacular regular at second base who could provide a relatively cheap, stable option for a club without a clear solution at the position.

Assuming the Rockies are able to clear enough payroll off the books this winter to make additions, Saunders notes that a hitter who can provide consistency in their lineup and a veteran reliever are both near the top of their list of priorities this winter. With Blackmon vacating the DH spot and no player clearly locked into the outfield alongside Jones and Doyle for 2025, it should be fairly easy for the club to work a relatively inexpensive corner bat into their lineup this winter, and it’s not difficult to find veteran bullpen help on the cheap either in most offseasons.

Beyond those goals, Saunders notes one specific name the club figures to target in free agency this winter is catcher Jacob Stallings, who enjoyed a strong rebound campaign with the Rockies after being non-tendered by the Marlins last winter. Per Saunders, the Rockies want to give young catchers Drew Romo and Hunter Goodman room to develop at the big league level but could still to turn Stallings as they look to bridge the gap for their young backstops. Stallings slashed an excellent .263/.357/.453 (114 wRC+) in 82 games with Colorado this year, although that came with defensive metrics that were a far cry from the work that earned him the NL Gold Glove at catcher in 2021.

Postseason Notes: Dodgers, Cortes, Senga

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The Dodgers are headed back to L.A. for Game 6 of the NLCS with a 3-2 lead, but the club nonetheless faces some question marks regarding who exactly they’ll have available tomorrow. Catcher Will Smith departed Game 5 early after taking a pitch off of his glove hand during the game, but per Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times x-rays on Smith’s hand came back negative and he’s expected to be available for Game 6. That’s surely a relief for the Dodgers, given that Smith (111 wRC+) is a massive improvement over back-up Austin Barnes (86 wRC+) with the bat.

Unfortunately, things are less certain regarding first baseman Freddie Freeman. The veteran star has struggled at the dish of late while playing through a sprained ankle, with just one hit in his last 15 at-bats. While Jack Harris of the L.A. Times notes that manager Dave Roberts noted that Freeman is expected to play in tomorrow’s game just as Smith is, there was more uncertainty regarding Freeman’s availability as Roberts said he did not plan to decide if Freeman will start today and that whether or not he’s in the lineup tomorrow will be determined by how the veteran feels tomorrow. Should Freeman wind up missing tomorrow’s game, Max Muncy would likely slide from third base to first, opening up the hot corner for Enrique Hernandez and center field for Andy Pages.

More from around the playoff clubs…

  • Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes was left off the club’s roster for the ALCS as he rehabs a late-season flexor strain that’s left him sidelined for nearly a month now. Fortunately, Cortes now appears closer than ever to a return to action. As noted by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, the southpaw has continued to progress well and figures to have just one hurdle left to clear in his rehab: a live bullpen session in the coming days. If Cortes gets through that bullpen successfully, Kirschner suggests that Cortes is “expected” to be on the club’s World Series roster should they advance. The return of Cortes would surely be a huge boost to the Yankees’ bullpen mix, particularly after they lost right-hander Ian Hamilton for the World Series yesterday due to a calf injury. Cortes would also add another lefty option to the club’s relief corps. The club currently only features Tim Hill and Tim Mayza as lefty relief options, the latter has allowed four of eight batters to reach base to this point in the postseason.
  • Moving on to the Mets, the club opted to give the ball to left-hander David Peterson rather than right-hander Kodai Senga in Game 5 yesterday, and that decision seems to leave the door open to a role change for Senga late in the series. As relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters today that he “won’t hesitate” to hand Senga the ball in a relief role in tomorrow’s game despite Senga having been exclusively used as a starter throughout his MLB career to this point. With Senga evidently available out of the pen, the Mets may have a potentially dynamic relief weapon on their hands who’s capable of pitching multiple innings as a bridge to closer Edwin Diaz. Of course, that would require Senga to have ironed out the issues that saw him walk four batters and allow three runs in 1 1/3 innings of work against the Dodgers earlier in this series.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Last offseason, the Brewers lost their manager, traded away their best starting pitcher and lost another to injury. During the season, several more injuries popped up but the club overcame all that adversity to repeat as National League Central champions. They'll now have to overcome a crushing postseason loss, the likely departure of their shortstop and declining broadcast revenue.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $110.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout on '29 mutual option; deal to be paid out through '42 due to deferrals)
  • Jackson Chourio, OF: $78MM through 2031 (including $2MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Aaron Ashby, LHP: $17.25MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Brandon Woodruff, RHP: $15MM through 2025 (including $10MM buyout on '26 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • 1B Rhys Hoskins has $18MM player option for 2025 with $4MM buyout, deal also has $18MM mutual option for 2026 with $4MM buyout
  • Team, RHP Frankie Montas hold $20MM mutual option with $2MM buyout
  • Team, LHP Wade Miley hold $12MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Team holds $10.5MM club option on RHP Devin Williams with a $250K buyout (Williams can be retained via arbitration even if option is declined)
  • Team, C Gary Sánchez hold $11MM mutual option with $4MM buyout
  • Team holds $5.5MM club option on RHP Colin Rea with $1MM buyout
  • Team holds $8MM club option on RHP Freddy Peralta with $1.5MM buyout

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $92.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $265MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Bauers, Wilson, Haase

Free Agents

The Brewers have faced a lot of challenges in the past year. Manager Craig Counsell seemed intent on pushing forward the market for managers, willing to go from Milwaukee to the highest bidder. For a small-market club like the Brewers, they weren't going to get drawn into a bidding war to keep him, so he went to the division rival Cubs as Milwaukee gave his old job to Pat Murphy. Brandon Woodruff required shoulder surgery about this time last year, which put him on ice for all of 2024. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in February.

Some of that was self-imposed, in a sense, but also a reflection of the club's perpetual financial situation. As one of the lower-spending clubs, they often trade their best players just before they get to free agency, with Burnes just the most recent example. That's not to say they were forced to do it, but it's understandable why they make such moves. The trade return is usually much more appealing than holding the player all the way until free agency and, in a best-case scenario, recouping draft compensation after the player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

All of that was before the season even started. Once spring training began, the challenges mounted. Closer Devin Williams was diagnosed with back fractures in March, setting him up to miss roughly the first half of the season. Wade Miley required Tommy John surgery in May, ending his season prematurely. Robert Gasser, called up to help cover for Miley, required his own UCL surgery in June. Christian Yelich didn't play after July 23 due to his lingering back problems, undergoing season-ending surgery in August.

Despite all of that, the Brewers managed to take the division, but fresh challenges now lie ahead. Shortstop Willy Adames is slated to become a free agent, a notable subtraction from their roster. Williams seems likely to be this year's candidate for a trade before reaching free agency, with general manager Matt Arnold recently admitting that the club will have to be "open-minded" about the possibility.

Meanwhile, the club will no longer have a broadcast relationship with Bally Sports/Diamond Sports Group. Their deal with Diamond ended in 2024 and they will now have Major League Baseball handling their broadcasts in direct-to-consumer fashion. Such an arrangement could be beneficial in the long run with the decay of the cable model but it's likely to lead to less revenue in the short term, which could further squeeze a club that always has payroll concerns.

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Poll: Christian Walker And The Qualifying Offer

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Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.

Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.

Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.

Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.

As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.

That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.

Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.

Should the Diamondbacks extend the QO to Christian Walker?
Yes, make Walker a $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. 71.47% (2,918 votes)
No, allow Walker to enter free agency without making a Qualifying Offer. 28.53% (1,165 votes)
Total Votes: 4,083

AL East Notes: Rubenstein, Orioles, German, Rays, Red Sox

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“I’m now 75 years old.  It’s unlikely that I’ll be, you know, doing this for 20 more years,” Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein said in a recent interview with NPR (hat tip to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).  “So I’ve got to speed up the effort to get [to] a World Series a lot sooner than maybe some younger owners would.”

This might be one of the clearer indications yet that the Orioles are in for their busiest offseasons in a long time, especially since the team is now coming off a pair of playoff appearances with nary a single win from five total postseason games.  This is Rubenstein’s first winter since his ownership bought the team, and as GM Mike Elias implied during his end-of-season press conference, the O’s will have a lot more to spend than in recent years during the club’s rebuild, when the Angelos family was still in charge.

More from around the AL East….

  • Sticking with the Orioles, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s “had no interest” in right-hander Domingo German in the past, which runs contrary to a report from the New York Post’s Mark W. Sanchez from last January.  German signed with the Pirates on a minors contract last winter and had only a 7.84 ERA in seven appearances and 20 2/3 innings on the big league roster in 2024.  Pittsburgh outrighted German off its 40-man roster in September and he elected free agency earlier this week.  Given his poor recent results and his troubled off-the-field history, it remains to be seen if any MLB teams will take a flier on German for another minor league deal.
  • The top Rays story remains the team’s likely need for a new temporary home to begin the 2025 season, as Tropicana Field sustained heavy damage due to Hurricane Milton.  John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times shares some details about the insurance policies attached to the stadium, and the possibility that the city of St. Petersburg (which is funding the repairs) might simply decide that repairing the Trop isn’t worth it since the Rays’ new ballpark is set to open in 2028.  “We’re going to try to figure out every avenue, both through insurance and otherwise, to try to make sure the Rays have a place to play in St. Petersburg.  But we’re going to make sure that it’s a financially responsible decision,” city council member Copley Gerdes said.  Romano opines that Orlando might check off the most boxes as the Rays’ interim home, as the team could play at the 9500-seat stadium on the ESPN Wide World Of Sports complex at Walt Disney World.
  • The Red Sox promoted Kyle Boddy to the role of director of baseball science on an interim basis, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via X).  The position appears to be a newly-created job within the Sox front office, as Brad Alberts is credited in the team’s directory as the “team lead” of baseball sciences, but there is no director position.  Boddy founded the data-based Driveline Baseball training facility in 2012, and then moved into an official role with a big league club when he was the Reds’ pitching coordinator for the majority of the 2020-21 seasons.  The Red Sox brought Boddy aboard last January as an advisor to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

Extension Candidate: Riley Greene

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As noted in the Tigers’ Offseason Outlook piece, the club has a lot of payroll flexibility, even with continued uncertainty about its future broadcasting contracts.  Javier Baez and Colt Keith are the only Tigers players guaranteed money beyond the 2025 season, and that duo combines for $28MM in both 2026 and 2027.

Tarik Skubal will continue to get expensive through his two remaining seasons of arbitration control, but at a projected $8MM in 2025, even another big jump up to $16MM in 2026 is still a discount for a superstar pitcher.  Jason Foley’s arb number will keep rising if he keeps posting saves, but Foley is only arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.  Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson won’t hit arb-eligibility until 2026, and the likes of Parker Meadows and Reese Olson will still be in their pre-arb years.

In short, there should be plenty of payroll space for Detroit to seek out some star talent this winter as the team looks to build on its surprise run to the ALDS.  Beyond just external additions, the Tigers may well also look to lock up some of its young cornerstones, such as All-Star outfielder Riley Greene.

Selected fifth overall in the 2019 draft, Greene has long been viewed as a key piece of Detroit’s rebuilding efforts.  He was a consensus top-six prospect in all of baseball heading into the 2022 season, when Greene made his Major League debut and hit .253/.321/.362 in his first 418 plate appearances in the Show.  The development continued with 11 homers and a .288/.349/.447 slash line in 416 PA in 2023, though Greene’s playing time was limited by some notable injuries.  He suffered a stress reaction in his left fibula that cost him over a month of action, and he didn’t play after September 1 due to a right elbow problem that eventually required a Tommy John surgery.

2024 wasn’t an entirely healthy season either for Greene, as he missed just shy of four weeks due to a hamstring strain.  However, he still achieved his best season yet, hitting .262/.348/.479 with 25 home runs over 584 PA, translating into a 135 wRC+.  Most importantly, Greene’s return from the injured list on August 18 helped the Tigers spark their already-legendary late-season surge.  Detroit went 31-13 over its last 44 games, going from also-rans to a wild card berth in a manner of weeks.

Greene’s production after his IL stint (.786 OPS) wasn’t as strong as his .842 OPS pre-injury, and he hit only .231/.355/.269 over 31 PA in the postseason.  Still, Greene’s importance to Detroit’s lineup can’t be overstated, as he was easily the Tigers’ most consistent overall hitter.  Keith and Meadows didn’t start to contribute much at the plate until later in the season, and Carpenter was limited by both injury (about 2.5 months missed due to a lumbar spine stress fracture) and a lack of production against left-handed pitching.

Beyond the bottom-line numbers, Greene made some big gains on the advanced-metric front.  He went from 30 barrels and an 11.3% barrel rate in 2023 to 48 barrels and a 13.4% barrel rate this season, putting him in the 87th and 90th percentile of all hitters in each respective category.  Greene’s walk rate made a seismic leap up to 11%, far beyond his 8.4BB% in 2023 that was slightly below the league average.  While Greene still strikes out a lot, he at least did a better job of laying off pitches outside the zone, with a very impressive 23.1% chase rate.  Greene’s .329 BABIP indicated that he still received a good deal of batted-ball luck, but that number was well beneath the .369 BABIP he posted in 2022-23.

Defensively, Greene’ struggles in center field and Meadows’ excellent glovework up the middle necessitated a position change near the end of Greene’s 2023 campaign.  Greene was installed as the everyday left fielder this season and became a big defensive asset, with +14 Defensive Runs Saved, +4 Outs Above Average, and a +11.7 UZR/150 over 700 2/3 innings in left.  Between Meadows’ presence and top prospect Max Clark also viewed as a center field-capable outfielder, it looks like Greene will be staying in left field for the foreseeable future, which isn’t an issue since his bat plays at the position.  Comerica Park’s spacious outfield demands more from Tigers outfielders regardless of position, so Greene’s ability to deliver plus glovework in left field is no small feat.

There’s a whole lot to like about Greene’s early-career results, and he only just turned 24 years old in late September.  Barring a very low Super Two cutoff point, Greene won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason, and thus he’ll remain an immense bargain on a pre-arb minimal salary next season.

With four full years of team control over Greene, the Tigers might not feel too much pressure to work out an extension just yet.  Greene’s injury history might stand out to the team as a bit of a red flag, between the hamstring and tibula problems, the TJ surgery, and the broken foot Greene suffered in Spring Training 2022.  That said, those injuries might also lower Greene’s price point to some limited extent, and the outfielder could be more open to locking in some guaranteed money if he has any lingering concerns about his durability.

A pretty wide variance exists amidst the recent extensions signed by players within two and three years of MLB service time, with the highest end of those extensions represented by the mega-deals signed by Bobby Witt Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.  Greene’s representatives at Apex Baseball certainly might argue that their client is closer to those two in terms of meriting face-of-the-franchise types of salaries, but some pretty key differences exist.  Tatis was 22 at the time of his extension, while Witt (who is a little over three months older than Greene) plays the more premium position of shortstop.

Greene is currently slated to hit free agency entering his age-28 season, right in the midst of his prime years and on pace to land a huge contract if he keeps up his current form.  A big extension lasting a decade or more would hold obvious appeal to him, but conversely, an extension that covers only Detroit’s four remaining years of control might also be of interest — Greene could pick up a guaranteed payday that doesn’t change his free agent timeline.  The Tigers would get some cost certainty through Greene’s arbitration years, but such a “bridge contract” scenario might be seen as a placeholder for the team, since the Tigers would certainly want at least a couple of free agent years covered if they’re making such a longer-term commitment.

Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM extension with the Astros probably represents the floor of what Greene figures to land in an extension.  Alvarez signed that deal just a few weeks shy of his 25th birthday, and with three-plus seasons of hitting at level above even what Greene delivered in 2024.  Alvarez also had injury concerns (he missed almost all of the 2020 season due to surgeries on both knees) of a more significant nature than Greene, and Alvarez was already viewed at the time as more of a DH than a left fielder.  Greene’s much higher defensive ceiling offsets Alvarez’s better hitting, and it should be noted that the length of Alvarez’s contract hit the unofficial six-year limit that Astros owner Jim Crane is known to enforce on his organization’s contracts.

The Tigers have no such known limit on contracts, so a Greene extension could certainly (and likely would) exceed six years.  It’s still something of a mystery as to how president of baseball operations Scott Harris or owner Chris Ilitch would approach such a longer-term deal, as Greene’s extension would represent a new frontier for the organization as it comes out of its rebuild.  Keith’s six-year, $28.6425MM deal from last January is the only extension signed in Harris’ two years as Detroit’s PBO, and that contract is wholly different from Greene’s situation since Keith had yet to even make his Major League debut.

That being said, extending a player before his debut is an aggressive move in its own right, which could hint that Harris will be proactive in trying to retain players he views as central to the Tigers’ long-term plans.  Skubal’s two years of control makes him a more immediate concern than Greene, yet since Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, the Tigers might view Greene as the likelier of the two young stars to be open to a multi-year pact.

As noted earlier, an extension doesn’t need to happen in the near future.  Waiting at least another season might help both parties anyway, since another big season only raises Greene’s price tag, but by the same logic would also make the Tigers a little more comfortable about splurging on something like a decade-long extension worth well north of $200MM.  With a pretty clean set of financial books right now, however, the Tigers might feel the time is right to officially confirm Greene as a pivotal figure in this new era of Detroit baseball.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The 2024 Royals added 30 wins relative to the prior season, going from 56 to 86 and sneaking into the playoffs for the first time since their World Series win in 2015. Now they'll go into the winter as clear contenders for the first time in a while, but still with lots of uncertainty ahead.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $279MM through 2034 (Final four years are annual player options; Royals can trigger three-year club option for '35-'37 if Witt triggers all player options)
  • Seth Lugo, RHP: $30MM through 2026 ('26 is $15MM player option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $24MM through 2025 (including $2MM buyout on '26 club option; $2MM of '25 salary is deferred)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $61.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $348.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Taylor, Harvey, Hernández, Melendez

Free Agents

Coming into 2024, the Royals were an afterthought for many observers. They had spent close to a decade in the wilderness, finishing at .500 or below in each season from 2016 to 2023. But they managed to shoot back into contention this year and secure a postseason berth, mostly thanks to their starting pitching.

The Kansas City rotation had a 3.55 earned run average this year, second only to the Mariners. An aggressive offseason a year ago played a part in that, as the Royals were one of the more active teams last winter. Their two biggest free agent deals were for starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, both of which were big wins for the club this year. Lugo made 33 starts and tossed over 200 innings with a flat ERA of 3.00, which will surely lead to some Cy Young votes. Wacha got to 29 starts and 166 2/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA.

They also gave a massive extension to Bobby Witt Jr., who went on to have an MVP caliber season in 2024. Those moves and others pushed the payroll to $115MM, per Cot's Baseball Contracts, getting into nine-figure territory for the first time since their last competitive window closed. It's unclear whether they plan to maintain that level of spending, increase it or decrease it.

It was speculated by some that the free agent signings and the Witt extension last winter were an attempt by owner John Sherman to build some public goodwill that would help him secure public money for a new stadium. But in April, voters in Jackson County, Missouri rejected a sales tax measure that would have provided funding for a new stadium for the Royals as well as upgrades for Arrowhead Stadium, home of the NFL's Chiefs.

There's also the broadcast revenue situation to consider. The Royals were one of the clubs with Bally Sports in 2024 but they may not be able to continue that relationship going forward. Diamond Sports Group, the company that has owned Bally for years, has been in bankruptcy for almost two years now and is planning to significantly scale back its MLB operations in 2025. As of a few weeks ago, they were reportedly planning to cut ties with 11 of the 12 clubs they broadcasted in 2024, with the Royals one of the many on the chopping block. It's possible that a new deal could be worked out, but that would come with lower fees than the club had received previously. The Royals reportedly received $45MM as part of their deal with Diamond as recently as 2022.

Even though the club just had a strong season and got some playoff revenue, will Sherman have less interest in throwing money at the team now that the stadium situation is in no man's land and there's likely less TV money coming in?

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Tigers “Finalizing” Deal To Hire Shane Farrell As Farm Director

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8:52AM: The hiring isn’t yet official, as the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky writes (X link) that Farrell and the Tigers “are finalizing a deal.”  Farrell’s role with the Tigers would involve assuming some of the duties left open when Garko was promoted.

8:29AM: The Tigers have hired Shane Farrell as their new farm director, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (links to X).  Farrell has spent the last five seasons as the Blue Jays’ director of amateur scouting, and was in charge of the team’s drafts.

As Elliott notes, Farrell has past ties to Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris, as the two previously worked together in the Cubs’ front office when Harris was Chicago’s director of baseball ops and and Farrell was a scout and crosschecker.  There is also a distant family connection to Detroit for Farrell, as his father John (the longtime former manager and pitcher) spent his final season as a player with the Tigers in 1996.

It isn’t yet known if Farrell is joining the Tigers’ current front office mix, or if he’ll be taking the place of a departing executive.  Ryan Garko is still credited as the team’s VP of player development, but Garko was also promoted to an assistant GM role back in May.  Fellow AGM Rob Metzler oversees the team’s scouting operations, and Mark Conner has spent the last two seasons as Detroit’s director of amateur scouting.

Farrell’s departure leaves the Blue Jays with a big hole to fill in their front office, and it represents a shakeup in the club’s player development strategies.  While such notables as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Alek Manoah are homegrown products of the Toronto farm system, the Jays have long had difficulty in developing a consistent pipeline of minor leaguers who become productive members of the MLB roster.

This problem predates Farrell’s arrival in the organization, and it is naturally hard to gauge his work in Toronto considering how almost literally all of the players drafted by the Jays in the last five seasons have yet to reach the big leagues.  Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick in 2020) is the only player drafted by the Blue Jays from 2020-24 who has made it to the Show, and Martin was traded to the Twins back in 2021 as part of the deal that brought Jose Berrios to Toronto.

Of course, the lack of any immediate help could itself be an issue, as the Jays haven’t had many big prospects coming up to bolster the roster or to be used as trade chips. 2021 first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund was also dealt to the A’s as part of the Matt Chapman trade package in March 2022, and other prominent young pitchers drafted under Farrell (Ricky Tiedemann, CJ Van Eyk, Brandon Barriera) have all had their career slowed by injuries.

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