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The Opener: NLDS, ALDS, NLCS

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With two of the four teams headed to the LCS already decided, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on headed into the weekend:

1. NLDS Game 5:

Baseball fans get to enjoy three games from three different series this weekend, starting with a winner-take-all rubber match between the Dodgers and Padres at Dodger Stadium at 5:08pm local time this evening. In the first instance of a pitching match-up featuring two Japanese-born pitchers in MLB playoff history, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA in 18 starts) will take the ball for the Dodgers in Game 5 opposite Padres veteran Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA in 16 starts). Yamamoto pitched for the Dodgers in Game 1 but was torched for five runs in three innings of work amid whispers that the star hurler was tipping his pitches. Meanwhile, Darvish hurled seven innings of one-run ball in his start against the Dodgers earlier in this series.

2. ALDS Game 5:

Tomorrow, another set of division rivals will prepare for a winner-take-all Game 5 when the Tigers and Guardians head back to Cleveland for a game scheduled at 8:08pm local time tomorrow evening. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (2.39 ERA) will be back on the mound for the Guardians after previously striking out 14 across 13 scoreless frames this postseason between dominant starts against the Astros and Guardians. The Guardians have not announced their starter as they try to hand Skubal the first loss of his postseason career, though injuries to the Detroit lineup could help their own pitching staff keep pace with the dominant lefty.

Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter departed last night’s game with an apparent hamstring injury, and manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) that the club will need to get Carpenter looked at by team doctors before determining his availability for Game 5. Meanwhile, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reported last night that catcher Jake Rogers also underwent imaging after having his wrist and forearm wrapped in the aftermath of Game 4, though specifics of the backstop’s potential injury aren’t known. With two key pieces of the club’s starting lineup potentially unavailable headed into Game 5, the Tigers could need to rely on backup catcher Dillon Dingler and Carpenter’s platoon partner Justyn-Henry Malloy to take the club to the ALCS.

3. NLCS Game 1:

On Sunday, the winner of tonight’s game 5 will move on to face the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS, which will take place at either Dodger Stadium or San Diego’s Petco Park at 5:15 local time that evening. With the club’s entire rotation set to be fully rested entering the series, the Mets appear likely to turn to either Luis Severino (3.91 ERA) or Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) in Sunday’s game, while the Dodgers would likely turn to Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA) should they advance. The Padres have less certainty in their rotation situation than the other remaining NL clubs after losing Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery earlier this postseason, but could start right-hander Michael King (2.95 ERA) on short rest or simply lean on their dominant bullpen in the first game of the seven game set.

Pohlad Family To Explore Sale Of Twins

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Twins owner Joe Pohlad, grandson of longtime owner Carl Pohlad and nephew of successor Jim Pohlad, announced that his family will begin exploring a sale of the team. The Pohlad family has owned the Twins since 1984 — the third-longest tenure of any ownership group in the sport behind only the Steinbrenner family (Yankees) and Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox).

“For the past 40 seasons, the Minnesota Twins have been part of our family’s heart and soul,” Pohlad said in this morning’s press release. “This team is woven into the fabric of our lives, and the Twins community has become an extension of our family. The staff, the players, and most importantly, you, the fans — everyone who makes up this unbelievable organization — is part of that. We’ve never taken lightly the privilege of being stewards of this franchise. However, after months of thoughtful consideration, our family reached a decision this summer to explore selling the Twins. As we enter the next phase of this process, the time is right to make this decision public.

We truly respect and cherish what the Twins mean to Minneapolis, St. Paul, the great state of Minnesota, and this entire region. Our goal is to be as informative as possible with the team, staff, and you, the fans. You deserve that, because in so many ways, this team doesn’t belong to any one family – it belongs to all of you. It’s our objective to find an ownership group who all of us can be proud of and who will take care of the Minnesota Twins.

After four decades of commitment, passion, and countless memories, we are looking toward the future with care and intention – for our family, the Twins organization, and this community we love so much.”

Carl Pohlad purchased the Twins franchise from former owner Calvin Griffith for a purchase price of $44MM back in 1984. Three generations of the family have since spearheaded ownership, with the 42-year-old Joe Pohlad being tabbed as the team’s control person just two years ago. It’s impossible to know precisely how much the Twins might fetch in a sale, but it’ll surely top $1 billion. The Royals ($1 billion), Marlins ($1.2 billion) and Orioles ($1.725 billion) commanded at least that much in their sales within the past half decade. Entering the season, Forbes placed an estimated $1.46 billion value on the Twins — a five percent increase over the prior year.

For a frustrated Twins fanbase, it’s surely welcome news. Ownership drew the ire of Minnesota fans by slashing $30MM off the payroll on the heels of the team’s first postseason series win since 2002 just this past offseason. Uncertainty surrounding the television broadcast rights in the midst of Diamond Sports Group’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings largely fueled that decision, but it was nevertheless a disheartening trajectory for a fanbase that has long voiced frustration with ownership even before that reduction in budget.

The Twins have long resided in the bottom half and frequently the bottom third of Major League Baseball in terms of player payroll. Fans were sold hope that the construction of Target Field, which opened in 2010, would boost spending capacity. It’s technically true that the team’s payroll has risen, but only relative to their prior spending levels and not relative to the rest of the league. The Twins haven’t ranked in the top half of the league in payroll size since 2012, and this past season’s 18th-ranked payroll falls right in line with the same levels they sat at the Metrodome in 2003-09, when their payroll ranked between 18th and 25th in the sport each season (per Cot’s Contracts).

It bears emphasizing that exploring a sale and committing to a sale are not one and the same. Angels owner Arte Moreno and Nationals owner Mark Lerner have both explored the possibility of selling their own clubs in the past two to three years, only to eventually express a change in direction and intent to continue on as the owners of those respective teams. Both of those clubs were purchased by current ownership far more recently, however, and play in much larger markets. That meant loftier sale prices and less potential for return on investment than the Pohlad family stands to make in soliciting bids on a small-market club that was purchased four decades ago for a price smaller than the combined salary of the Twins’ two most-expensive players (Carlos Correa and Pablo Lopez).

For now, the prospect of a sale surely instills a sense of hope in fans but also creates more questions than answers. It’s unclear whether the Twins are wholly committed to selling or simply seeing what the franchise might fetch, nor is it presently known what price they’ll seek or if there’s any sort of deadline after which they’ll stop fielding interest. On a smaller scale, it’s difficult to glean just what a sale of the club might mean for the 2025 roster and payroll. Joe Pohlad had already publicly stated that he did not anticipate further reduction in payroll, though that was before the sale of the club was made public.

It’s also possible, though far from certain, that news of the impending sale process prompted now-former general manager Thad Levine — the team’s No. 2 baseball operations executive behind president of baseball operations Derek Falvey — to step down and seek new opportunities. Levine announced his departure from the club just last week. He did not cite a reason for his decision, but Levine has spoken fondly of the Pohlad family in the past and turned down interview opportunities to interview as a baseball operation leader with other organizations, including the Mets and Phillies. The Rockies were also linked to him before sticking with an internal name and elevating scouting director Bill Schmidt to the GM’s chair. Levine did interview for the Red Sox’ front office vacancy one year ago, but the Sox ultimately hired former Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow.

Phillies Notes: Outfield, Hoffman, Coaching Staff

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The Phillies’ season came to a crushing end last night. The NL East champs were bounced by the division rival Mets. It was the second straight year in which their playoff results have taken a step back. Philadelphia went from the 2022 NL pennant to last year’s NLCS appearance to the Division Series.

Matt Gelb of the Athletic looks ahead to the offseason in a piece that’ll be of interest to Philadelphia fans. Gelb writes that Philadelphia is likely to bring in an outfielder via free agency or trade during the offseason. The Phils moved Bryce Harper into first base, leaving them with a primary outfield of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos. That’s a relatively weak outfield for a contender.

Castellanos’ .254/.311/.431 slash isn’t enough to make up for his lack of defensive value. It’s the opposite story with Rojas. He’s an elite runner and plus defender in center field but hasn’t provided much at the plate. The second-year player hit .243/.279/.322 across 363 trips. Marsh was Philadelphia’s most productive outfielder, hitting 16 home runs with a .249/.328/.419 batting line. The lefty-hitting Marsh has yet to demonstrate he’s more than a strong-side platoon bat though. He hit .192 in 90 plate appearances against southpaws this season. He’s a career .216/.276/.306 hitter versus lefty pitching.

The Phils acquired Austin Hays in a buy-low deadline pickup. Philadelphia projected Hays as at worst a right-handed platoon partner for Marsh in left field. Hays spent most of his Phillies tenure on the injured list and didn’t produce in limited playing time. He hit .256/.275/.397 with 19 strikeouts and no walks in 80 plate appearances after the trade.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Hays for a $6.4MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s likely to be non-tendered. The Phils could stick with utility player Weston Wilson as a platoon partner with Marsh. The other outfield spots are areas for potential improvement, though neither is without complications.

Kyle Schwarber blocks Castallenos from getting substantial time at designated hitter. There are still two seasons remaining at $20MM annually on Castellanos’ five-year free agent deal. The $40MM in guarantees is well above his market value. Philadelphia would need to eat a chunk of the contract to facilitate a trade — likely to a team that could play him at DH. They wouldn’t get much back even if they paid the deal down, which could leave the Phils to stick with Castellanos in right.

Upgrading in center field could be even more challenging. This winter’s free agent class is extremely thin. Barring a surprise Cody Bellinger opt-out, the best free agent center fielders available include Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor. They’re at best marginal upgrades on Rojas. There aren’t many clear solutions on the trade market either. Leody Taveras and Jose Siri provide similar glove-first profiles. The Cubs could try to offload part of Bellinger’s two-year, $50MM guarantee if he opts in as most expect.

If the Phillies were unable to move Castellanos but wanted a clear outfield upgrade, that opens the possibility of flipping one of their other outfielders. Gelb floats the idea of either Marsh or Rojas becoming an offseason trade candidate. Rojas has five years of club control and is two seasons from arbitration. Marsh is projected for a $3MM salary in his first of three arbitration years.

A Marsh trade would at least open the possibility for the Phils to make a splash in left field. They’d face an uphill battle from teams like the Yankees, Mets and Giants on Juan Soto — though owner John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski’s front office have never shied away from making runs at superstars. Players like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández could be in play if Soto isn’t realistic. The Phillies could theoretically play Marsh in center field if they were to trade Rojas and sign a bigger bat to play left. That’d project as a very weak defensive grouping.

After the outfield, the bullpen is the next-biggest question. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are two of the top relievers in the upcoming free agent class. Wednesday was a bitter ending for both pitchers. Hoffman loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk. Estévez entered and surrendered the Francisco Lindor grand slam that proved to be the nail in the coffin. Yet the tough finish doesn’t negate the importance of Hoffman and Estévez down the stretch. The righties were two of the three highest-leverage arms (alongside Matt Strahm) in Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Even with both pitchers entering their age-32 seasons, they’re on track for significant multi-year deals. MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered Hoffman’s emergence for Front Office subscribers last month, writing that a four-year contract could be on the table. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested earlier this week that Estévez has a shot at four years in his own right. Even if the relief market isn’t quite that strong, both pitchers have a case for a three-year pact around $10-12MM annually.

Postgame, both pitchers expressed some hope they’d be back with the Phils. “Hopefully. That would be great, but let’s see. You know how it is,” Estévez said of a potential return (via Gelb). Hoffman was a bit more emphatic. “Yeah, that’s all I want,” he told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) about staying in Philly. “But it’s hard to think about right now.”

Major roster decisions will wait for the official start of the offseason in a few weeks. A more immediate question may be on the coaching staff. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted on Thursday that the Phils are set for evaluation meetings to determine whether to make any coaching changes. The Phillies signed Thomson to a one-year extension last December, so he’s under contract through next season.

Latest On White Sox’s Managerial Search

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Finding a manager is one of the first orders of offseason business for the White Sox. Chicago dismissed Pedro Grifol in early August. Grady Sizemore finished the season on an interim basis. While Sox GM Chris Getz left the door ajar for Sizemore to take the full-time job, Getz had previously indicated that the team was likely to go outside the organization for a solution.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Sox’s early list of targets includes Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso, and former Angels skipper Phil Nevin. That’s not an exhaustive set of candidates, nor is it clear if anyone from that trio will actually interview.

Nevin is the only one of that group with previous managerial experience. The former All-Star infielder took over the Halos on an interim basis when Los Angeles fired Joe Maddon in June 2022. The Angels signed Nevin to a one-year extension covering the ’23 campaign. They decided not to re-sign him last winter on the heels of a 73-89 season. Nevin interviewed for the Padres’ vacancy that eventually went to Mike Shildt. He did not coach this past season.

Venable and Descalso are more recently retired players who have long been viewed as potential future managers. Venable had spent time as Alex Cora’s bench coach with the Red Sox before accepting the associate manager role under Bruce Bochy in 2022. He has held that position in Texas for the past two years. Venable won a World Series ring during his first season in Arlington. He took himself out of consideration for managerial roles early last winter, reportedly declining a chance to interview with the Mets for the job which went to Carlos Mendoza.

While Venable has been on coaching staffs for the past seven years, Descalso has just one season of MLB coaching experience. The former Cardinals infielder took the bench coach role with St. Louis last offseason. He spent this year as Oli Marmol’s top lieutenant and has also worked in the Diamondbacks’ front office since retiring as a player in 2021.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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A big shakeup is in process for the front office in San Francisco. The Farhan Zaidi era came to an end last month and now Giants legend Buster Posey will be calling the shots as president of baseball operations. Since Posey has so little experience in running baseball operations, it's hard to know exactly what to expect, but there are some signs that the club will move from a measured approach to a bolder focus on acquiring marquee players.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • LHP Robbie Ray can opt out of final two years and $50MM remaining on contract
  • LHP Blake Snell can opt out of final one year and $30MM remaining on contract
  • IF Wilmer Flores has $3.5MM player option, Giants have $8.5MM club option if he declines

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Snell opts out while Ray and Flores stay): $110.75MM
Total future commitments (assuming Snell opts out while Ray and Flores stay) : $439.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Yastrzemski, Doval

Free Agents

The Giants did some good things under Zaidi's watch but the club was mostly defined by mediocrity in his time. The club finished just below .500 in his first two seasons. They shot up to an amazing 107 wins in 2021 but were eliminated by the Dodgers in the playoffs and crashed back to earth after. They finished at .500 in 2022 and just below in the next two years, making the 2021 season look like a clear outlier.

On top of the on-field results, there were some unsatisfactory elements elsewhere. The club's offseasons often focused on the players they didn't acquire, as guys like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa came close to becoming Giants but ultimately didn't. Also, the club struggled to graduate many of its top prospects, with guys like Joey Bart, Luis Matos and Marco Luciano struggling to establish themselves at the big league level.

There were some nice finds on the pitching market, but mostly on short-term deals that allowed the players to get their big money elsewhere. Both Carlos Rodón and Kevin Gausman were able to resurrect their careers as Giants, but both quickly returned to free agency and got their big deals from A.L. East clubs, Rodón with the Yankees and Gausman the Blue Jays. To a lesser extent, guys like Sean Manaea, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani had some good results with the club but are no longer in San Francisco. The club recently snapped up Blake Snell when he lingered unsigned into early 2024, but he now seems destined to depart like the others.

Last month, it became apparent that the franchise was growing weary of this generally tempered approach. Third baseman Matt Chapman, who had also signed a short-term deal like Snell, was signed to a six-year extension to stay by the Bay. But it was quickly reported that Posey had taken a lead role in getting that deal done, talking with Chapman directly in order to work around Zaidi and Chapman's agent Scott Boras.

Many smelled smoke in that report and the fire was later confirmed, as Posey was then given Zaidi's job. Posey said that he views baseball as a "memory-making business" at his introductory press conference. "Sure, winning is great," Posey said, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com. "Ultimately, that's our goal, to be a playoff team every year and compete for a championship. But I think just the overall big picture of being a part of something that's bigger than yourself was really appealing."

Does this mean that the Giants are now going to take a more free-wheeling approach, with less concern about squeezing the value of every dollar at the margins of every transaction? Will the plan be just to get things done, even if that means being a bit more reckless and perhaps overpaying from time to time?

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Jorge Polanco Undergoes Knee Surgery

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Mariners infielder Jorge Polanco underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The infielder expects to be ready by spring training. The Mariners can retain Polanco for 2025 via a $12MM club option with a $750K buyout. They will have until five days after the World Series to decide whether to pick it up or not.

Polanco, 31, just finished a rough campaign. Acquired from the Twins going into the season, he got into 118 games but hit just .213/.296/.355 for a wRC+ of 92. That was a notable drop from his time in Minnesota, as he had hit .269/.334/.446 over his 823 games as a Twin for a 111 wRC+.

Passan suggests that Polanco’s performance was impacted by the knee problems, particularly when hitting left-handed. The switch-hitter slashed .198/.301/.345 against righties this year for a wRC+ of 91. That actually wasn’t too far off from his right-handed production, mostly due to a big difference in his walk rate. He slashed .250/.285/.379 against lefties for a 94 wRC+. His batting average as a righty was far better but he only walked 4.6% of the time. Since he walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances as a lefty, he made up most of the difference in terms of overall production.

The knee issue didn’t come out of nowhere. He dealt with soreness in 2022, eventually missing the month of September while on the injured list due to left knee inflammation. But he still finished the season with a solid .235/.346/.405 slash line and 118 wRC+ in 104 games.

The soreness was still there in March of 2023, so Polanco started the season on th IL. He was activated by the third week of April. He did go back on the IL a couple of more times that year, but both of those later stints were due to left hamstring strains. He got into 80 games last year and produced a .255/.335/.454 line and 117 wRC+.

After those two seasons impacted by knee issues, he was flipped to the Mariners ahead of the 2024 season, with reliever Justin Topa, starter Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen going the other way. Both clubs saw their end of that deal impacted by injuries. Topa only made three appearances this year due to his own left knee issues while DeSclafani underwent flexor tendon surgery and missed the whole season.

The Mariners are likely to buy out Polanco on the heels of such a poor season, unless they buy into the narrative that his 2024 struggles were completely caused by the knee. If Polanco were able to return to his pre-2024 form, he’d be worth the investment, but the Mariners might prefer to keep that powder dry until later in the winter. The payroll in Seattle is expected to climb but perhaps not by much.

Even if Seattle is interested in bringing Polanco back for 2025, they could probably turn down the option and re-sign him for less than that option price. They figure to have Josh Rojas at either second or third base but should be looking for infield help, either in free agency or trade.

If Polanco ends up on the open market, he’ll join a group of free agent second basemen that includes Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Ha-Seong Kim, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and others.

Braves Fire Hitting Coach Kevin Seitzer

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The Braves have fired three coaches who were previously under contract through 2025, with David O’Brien of The Athletic among those to relay the news (X links here). The three coaches are hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes and catching coach Sal Fasano. Atlanta will fill the two hitting coach positions but won’t replace Fasano, who was in a role specifically created for him. General manager Alex Anthopoulos had previously said he expected the entire coaching staff to return but O’Brien reports that the club hadn’t yet begun its evaluation process at that time.

Atlanta undoubtedly had a disappointing year, including on offense. The club came into the season with championship aspirations but just barely snuck into the playoffs and then were quickly eliminated. The club’s hitters posted a collective line of .243/.309/.415, leading to a league-average wRC+ of 100. That was a big drop from last year when Atlanta collectively hit .276/.344/.501 for a league-leading 125 wRC+.

How much credit or blame the hitting coach deserves for such a swing is a matter of debate. Seitzer has been the club’s hitting coach since October of 2014 and overseen plenty of good clubs since then, as Atlanta has the playoffs in each of the last seven years and won the 2021 World Series. While the 2024 club didn’t meet expectations, injuries undoubtedly played a role there, with Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and others missing significant time. Regardless, the club has decided that a change is necessary, so they will be looking for a new hitting coach for the first time in a decade.

Seitzer played in the majors from 1986 to 1997, suiting up for Kansas City, Milwaukee, Oakland and Cleveland. The Diamondbacks hired him as their hitting coach going into the 2007 season and he later had the same job with the Royals and Blue Jays before coming to Atlanta. Magallanes was a minor leaguer in the ’90s but never made it to the show. He became a minor league coach early in this century and was able to get up to the majors with Atlanta for the 2021 season.

Fasano played in the bigs from 1996 to 2008, playing for nine different teams. He quickly began coaching in the minors, getting hired by the Blue Jays in late 2009, around the same time Anthopoulos became the GM of that club. In late 2017, Anthopoulos became GM in Atlanta and Fasano was hired by the club as a catching instructor that same month.

Rays Assessing Hurricane Damage To Tropicana Field

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The Rays released a statement on X today in the wake of Hurricane Milton passing through the Tampa and St. Petersburg area. “During the past couple weeks, our beloved city, region and state have been impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton,” the statement says. “We are devastated by the damage incurred by so many. Our priority is supporting our community and our staff. We are fortunate and grateful that no one was hurt by the damage to our ballpark last night. Over the coming days and weeks, we expect to be able to assess the true condition of Tropicana Field. In the meantime, we are working with law enforcement to secure the building. We ask for your patience at this time, and we encourage those who can to donate to organizations in our community that are assisting those directly impacted by these storms.”

Obviously, a sports stadium is not the top priority with a tragedy of this magnitude, but it is nonetheless a story with relevance to Major League Baseball that could impact the upcoming season. Drone footage shared on X by Ryan Bass of Bally Sports Florida clearly shows significant damage to the roof, with almost all of it ripped off, shredded into pieces that have fallen to the field below.

Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, club employees have begun the process of assessing the damage. Topkin notes that, due to the presence of the roof, the stadium was built with no drainage system. That means that water damage is a concern for as long as the roof is damaged and the field exposed to the elements.

The Rays are planning to open a new stadium adjacent to the Tropicana site but not until the 2028 season. As such, they will need to assess the playability of the Trop for the 2025 through 2027 seasons. They are scheduled to open the upcoming campaign at home on March 27, hosting the Rockies and then the Pirates for three game each.

As noted by Topkin, the Rays could potentially move to another location temporarily, if necessary. He cites the example of the Blue Jays, who weren’t able to travel to Toronto at the heights of the pandemic due to travel restrictions in 2020 and 2021. During that time, the Jays played at their minor league facilities in Dunedin and later in Buffalo.

Whether the Rays will have to follow a similar path or can return to the Trop by Opening Day 2025 will naturally depend on the severity of the damage and when it can be repaired. The club will undoubtedly be providing further updates in the coming days and weeks.

GM: Brewers To Stay “Open-Minded” On Possibility Of Trading Devin Williams

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold held a press conference today on the heels of the club being eliminated from the playoffs last week. Arguably the most notable thing he said was in relation to closer Devin Williams. “We have to stay open-minded,” Arnold said, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in this.”

Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.

Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.

Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.

The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.

Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.

Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.

Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.

Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.

The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.

A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.

The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.

Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.

Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.

Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.

Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.

Qualifying Offer Value Set At $21.05MM

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The qualifying offer in the 2024-25 offseason will be officially set at $21.05MM, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported in August that the QO value was expected to land in the vicinity of $21.2MM but would not be finalized until October. This year’s QO value represents an increase of $725K over last year’s mark of $20.325MM. The QO value, which is determined by calculating the average salary of the sport’s 125 highest-paid players, has risen nearly every season since being implemented under the 2012-16 collective bargaining agreement. Here’s a look at the history of the QO value:

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM
  • 2022-23: $19.65MM
  • 2023-24: $20.325MM

For those in need of a refresher or new to the QO system entirely, it was implemented as a competitive balance measure in an effort to ensure clubs would receive compensation in the following year’s draft if their top players depart and sign elsewhere in free agency. Any team can issue a qualifying offer to an impending free agent at the beginning of the offseason, so long as that player A) has never received a QO in the past and B) spent the entire season on that club’s roster. (In other words: players can only receive one QO in their career, and traded players cannot receive a QO — a measure put in place to prevent big-market clubs from acquiring/claiming expensive players from small-market teams who couldn’t afford the risk of a QO themselves.)

Five days after the end of the World Series, teams must decide whether to issue a QO to any of their impending free agents. Those players will have a week to then survey the market to determine what sort of interest is present in free agency before deciding whether to accept a one-year deal at the QO value or reject it in pursuit of a larger contract. Players who accept the QO are considered signed in the same manner as any free agent, meaning they cannot be traded prior to June 15 of the following season without their consent. Players who reject a qualifying offer are then tied to draft compensation, potentially complicating their market in some cases.

In order to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer, teams must surrender at least one pick — two, in some cases — in the next year’s draft. Some clubs are also required to surrender space from their bonus pool in international amateur free agency.

Any club that pays the luxury tax must surrender its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next year’s draft and forfeit $1MM of international pool space. (Signing a second qualified free agent means surrendering the second- and fifth-highest of their remaining picks, and so forth.) Non-luxury clubs that do not receive revenue sharing must surrender their second-highest pick and $500K of international pool space to sign a qualified free agent. (Again, signing a second such free agent means forfeiting their second-highest remaining pick.) Non-luxury teams who also receive revenue sharing are required to forfeit their third-highest pick to sign a qualified free agent (and their remaining third-highest pick for additional qualified free agents).

There are similar structures in place for the team losing the free agent in question. A revenue-sharing club receives a compensatory pick either at the end of the first round (if the player signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money) between Competitive Balance Round B and round three (if he signs for under $50MM) in the following year’s draft. Non-luxury clubs who do not receive revenue sharing receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Luxury tax payors receive a compensatory pick between rounds four and five of the draft.

The relatively steep nature of the one-year offer and the risk of being “saddled” with a player that the club perhaps did not want to retain (but for whom they’d hoped to net a draft pick) typically lead to only a handful of players receiving the QO. Last year saw just seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Josh Hader — receive qualifying offers. All seven rejected them. The most recent examples of players accepting the one-year QO came on the heels of the 2022 season, when Joc Pederson and Martin Perez accepted their $19.65MM qualifying offers from the Giants and Rangers, respectively.

There are a handful of slam-dunk QO candidates among this year’s crop of free agents. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez will all assuredly receive a QO and are all overwhelmingly likely to reject in search of a multi-year deal. Other candidates to receive a QO include Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Christian Walker, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Wacha, Ha-Seong Kim, and Nick Martinez, though not everyone from that group will ultimately receive one. Manaea, Wacha and Martinez all have opt-outs in their contracts they’re widely expected to exercise this offseason. Kim has an $8MM mutual option on his contract that he won’t exercise, although whether he receives a QO could hinge in part on the recovery timetable from his recent shoulder surgery, which is still not known.

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