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Free Agent Notes: Stratton, Martin, Hill, De Jesus

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The Pirates have non-tendered Hunter Stratton in each of the last two offseasons, and after re-signing him to a minor league contract last winter, a team source tells Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the Bucs want to do the same this time around.  Stratton suffered a ruptured patellar tendon in late August after a freak injury that saw the right-hander stumble into the stone wall behind home plate at PNC Park while pursuing a loose ball.

A subsequent knee surgery ended Stratton’s season, and he was given a recovery timeline of 7-10 months.  In the very best-case scenario, Stratton would be able to return on Opening Day, but the longer end of that timeline would keep him out until the end of June.  A clearer return date might emerge once Stratton gets deeper into his rehab, which also might impact when the Pirates or any other team might ink him to a new contract.  Stratton has a 3.26 ERA over 49 2/3 career bullpen innings over the last two seasons with Pittsburgh, with an impressive 4.9% walk rate and excellent soft-contact numbers.

More notes on some other players on the open market….

  • Chris Martin has suggested that 2025 will almost certainly be the final season of his career, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam believes Martin “likely looking to pitch closer to his Texas home.”  The 38-year-old Martin has spoken about his desire to spend more time with his growing family, so this could factor more into his decision-making process than necessarily chasing the biggest offers available.  Martin was born in Arlington and already pitched with his hometown Rangers during the 2017-18 seasons, and naturally the Astros would also be a logical destination if geography is Martin’s chief concern.  Martin figures to draw a lot of attention from teams all over the map, as he posted a 3.45 ERA and an elite 1.7% walk rate in 44 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2024.
  • Speaking of pitching close to home, Rich Hill told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) that he is open to pitching anywhere as he weighs whether or not to return for a 21st Major League season.  Hill lives in the greater Boston area and he pitched for the Red Sox in 2024, though the locale didn’t directly factor into Hill’s decision to join the Sox for the fourth different time in his career.  Hill’s desire to coach his son’s Little League team did impact his strategy of waiting until the second half of the 2024 season to sign, as he only landed a minors deal with the Sox in August.  When discussing his future plans earlier this month, Hill hinted that he would likely pursue a full-season schedule this time, though he hadn’t yet decided if he was going to pitch into his age-45 campaign.
  • Also from Morosi in another X entry, left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus is drawing interest from two unnamed Major League teams.  De Jesus posted a 3.68 ERA, 24.45% strikeout rate, and 6.04% walk rate over 171 1/3 innings with the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes in 2024, but the Heroes won’t be offering him a new contract for the coming KBO season.  The southpaw has a 4.01 ERA across 749 1/3 career innings and nine seasons in the affiliated minors, mostly with the Red Sox before pitching in the Giants organization in 2022 and the Marlins organization in 2023.  De Jesus’ only MLB experience came with Miami during that 2023 season, as he pitched 6 1/3 innings over two appearances and was hit hard for an 11.57 ERA.  While De Jesus worked more as a swingman in 2021-22, he has largely pitched as a starter throughout his career, including starting all 30 of his games with the Heroes.  A return to the KBO League with another team might be in the cards if De Jesus strictly wanted to start, or he could be open to a variety of roles if he is pursuing a path back to North American baseball.

Red Sox Interested In Corbin Burnes

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The Red Sox have already been linked to a wide range of big-name free agents this winter, including most of the top available pitchers.  It comes as no surprise that Corbin Burnes also appears to be on Boston’s radar, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are “in on” Burnes.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said earlier this month at the GM Meetings that the Red Sox “need to raise the ceiling of the rotation” by adding a front-of-the-rotation No. 1 starter type.  Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello project as the top three members of Boston’s current pitching staff, Lucas Giolito is expected to be back from an internal brace surgery relatively close to the start of the season, and the likes of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, or Quinn Priester are the top candidates for the fifth’s starter role.

Adding a pitcher like Burnes naturally makes that group much stronger, as suddenly the Red Sox would have an ace to push everyone down one slot in the rotation, and the younger starters become key depth options if Giolito has any setbacks (or if any of the starters run into injury problems).  In theory, the Sox could even look to turn one of the younger starters into a trade chip, even if it’s probably likelier that Boston just retains all of its pitchers just for the sake of having as much depth as possible.

The Red Sox to have interest in Garrett Crochet’s market, so it is possible the Sox will address their rotation needs via trade rather than via free agency.  Boston’s relatively limited free agent spending in recent years has been well-documented, as Trevor Story’s six-year, $140MM contract is the only nine-figure free agent deal the Red Sox have finalized in the last six offseasons.  That said, the Sox have explored so many premium free agents this winter that it appears the team is again willing to shop on the top shelf of the market — four non-winning records in the last five seasons has undoubtedly spurred some extra aggressiveness.

Burnes is ranked behind only Juan Soto on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents in this year’s class, and the right-hander is projected for a seven-year, $200MM pact.  Just a month removed from his 30th birthday, Burnes hits the open market on the heels of four straight All-Star appearances, and five straight top-eight finishes in the NL and AL Cy Young races.  Burnes took the Cy home in 2021 when he posted a Major League-leading 2.43 ERA in 167 innings with the Brewers.

That innings total was actually the lowest of Burnes’ last four seasons, as he has averaged 197 frames over the 2022-24 seasons.  Beyond the durability, Burnes has a 3.08 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate over the last three seasons, as he remained productive in a new environment after the Brewers traded him to the Orioles last offseason.  Burnes’ 23.1% strikeout rate this season was only a tick above league average, but the rest of his Statcast metrics were impressive, and he added a 48.2% grounder rate to boot.

Because Burnes rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer, any team that signs him would have to face some type of penalty.  In Boston’s case, they would have to surrender $500K in international signing pool money, as well as their second-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  This might be a relatively acceptable loss for the Red Sox, especially since they’d be getting a compensatory pick of their own just before the start of the third round if Nick Pivetta (their own qualified free agent) signed elsewhere.

AL East Notes: Romano, Loaisiga, Hays, Rays

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The Blue Jays didn’t make Jordan Romano a contract offer before the closer was non-tendered this week, the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm reports.  This apparent lack of interest in retaining Romano at any price (let alone his projected $7.75MM arbitration salary) probably closes the door on any chance of a reunion between Romano and the Jays, so the two-time All-Star will almost surely be pitching elsewhere in 2025.  It wasn’t necessarily a surprise that Romano was non-tendered, given his high price tag and the uncertainty over his health situation after his injury-riddled 2024 campaign.

Romano didn’t pitch after May 29 and he underwent an arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow in July.  As Chisholm notes, Romano told the Toronto Star’s Mike Wilner earlier in November that he was soon going to start throwing off a mound, and “that he was feeling great” in the recovery from his surgery.  While more specifics on Romano’s health are sure to emerge over the offseason, it is clear that the Jays didn’t share the reliever’s confidence in his elbow.  Finding a new closer is now the latest item on Toronto’s lengthy winter to-do list, and the Jays already had a lot of work to do in fixing a bullpen that was one of baseball’s worst last season.

More from around the AL East….

  • The Yankees are open to a reunion with Jonathan Loaisiga, though Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post reports that the Bombers are one of 14 teams that have shown interest in the reliever.  Loaisiga has pitched only 21 2/3 big league innings over the last two seasons, as elbow problems (including a bone spur removal surgery) limited him to 17 2/3 frames in 2023, and he tossed only four innings before a UCL surgery brought his 2024 season to a quick end.  Loaisiga’s procedure wasn’t a Tommy John procedure, and he was throwing from 90-foot distances for scouts earlier this week, with the Yankees among the clubs with an evaluator on hand.  All 163 of Loaisiga’s MLB games have come in a Yankees uniform, so the team has plenty of familiarity with the right-hander’s ability when healthy, and also the inside scoop on his health status.  Signing Loaisiga wouldn’t be expensive for the Yankees or any team that might offer him a contract this winter, making him an interesting buy-low candidate on the bullpen market.
  • Austin Hays was traded from the Orioles to the Phillies prior to the trade deadline, but now that Hays is a free agent after being non-tendered, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com thinks there’s a chance Hays could return to Baltimore.  Hays had an injury-plagued 2024 season that included a severe kidney infection that emerged during his time in Philadelphia, and he wound up with a below-average 98 wRC+ from a .255/.303/.396 slash line in 255 total plate appearances.  The outfielder was significantly better both offensively and defensively during the 2021-23 seasons when healthy, and Baltimore has a clear need for right-handed hitting outfielders (and right-handed hitting in general).
  • It remains to be seen if the Rays will ever again play at Tropicana Field, but for at least the 2025 season, the club will play at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa.  The move will impact the Rays’ roster construction plans, as some adjustment is naturally necessary simply by dint of the fact that the Rays will now be playing outdoors during the Florida summer rather than within the confines of a domed stadium.  With multiple rainouts now a likelihood, president of baseball operations Erik Neander is looking to add multi-inning pitching depth at both the Major and minor league levels.  As Neander told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, “it’s…making sure that we can protect our arms and maneuver the roster in a way where if a game gets disrupted and delayed after two innings and you lose a starter, and then you’ve got to cover four or five [innings] as it comes back before you can go to the bullpen, that you have the ability to maneuver day to day as needed, to cover that and do it in a way that’s responsible for the well-being of the group.”  More pitching will also be needed since the Stein is expected to be a much more hitter-friendly environment than the Trop, though the Rays’ own hitters can also benefit from the situation.

Orioles To Pursue Catching Help This Winter

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5:03PM: The Orioles have interest in Elias Diaz, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  An All-Star in 2023 due to a hot start to the season, Diaz has been a below-average offensive performer for most of his 10 MLB seasons, but his defensive metrics have been generally solid.  Diaz hit .265/.313/.382 over 351 plate appearances with the Rockies and Padres last season, as Diaz landed with San Diego in August after being released by Colorado.

1:34PM: Much of the conversation surrounding the Orioles to this point in the offseason has focused on recently-departed free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander and the club’s efforts to either reunite with or replace those top-of-the-market players. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio earlier today, club GM Mike Elias acknowledged that the club would “love” to bring both Burnes and Santander back, and that they’re prioritizing additions to the top of the rotation and the outfield to make up for that lost production. While those plans have already been reported on extensively, Elias also noted one other departing free agent who the club would either like to reunite with or replace this winter: veteran catcher James McCann.

McCann, 34, spent the past two seasons in Baltimore after being traded to the Orioles by the Mets prior to the 2023 season. He settled comfortably into the backup catcher role with his new club, serving as the second half of a tandem alongside young star Adley Rutschman. During his time in Baltimore, Statcast rated McCann as a below-average defensive catcher overall, with average marks (0 CS Above Average) for throwing out runners but lackluster marks in terms of blocking (-12 Blocks Above Average) and pitch framing (-5 Framing Runs). Meanwhile, McCann has been a below average hitter overall with the bat, but that still made him a roughly average offensive backup catcher overall as he hit .228/.274/.382 (83 wRC+) in 459 total trips to the plate over the past two years, including an 89 wRC+ in 2024.

While that production shouldn’t be especially difficult to replace for the Orioles, it’s nonetheless worth noting that the club plans to pursue an external addition at the position. With Rutschman locked in as the club’s starting catcher for the foreseeable future and top prospect Samuel Basallo already at the Triple-A level, it wouldn’t have been especially surprising if the club decided to go with some combination of Blake Hunt and Rene Pinto to back up Rutschman until Basallo is ready to debut. Given Elias’s comments, however, it seems the club will at least explore adding another veteran catcher to the mix to pair with Rutschman.

Whether that veteran catcher will wind up being McCann or not is unclear. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball suggested earlier today that McCann may be searching for a multi-year deal in free agency this winter given the thin market for catchers, and went on to note that a deal of that magnitude could make the Orioles “uncomfortable.” Given the presence of Basallo, it would be understandable if the club preferred to limit any commitment to a veteran catcher to just one guaranteed year. If McCann proves to be out of the club’s comfort zone or they simply opt to go in a different direction, there’s a number of other options who could be available on a one-year pact this winter such as Gary Sanchez, Elias Diaz, and Reese McGuire.

Twins Sign Alex Speas To Minor League Contract

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The Twins have signed right-hander Alex Speas, as initially announced by Speas’ agency, Munger English Sports Management (X link).  Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune confirmed that it is a minor league deal, and SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson adds that Speas will get an invitation to the Twins’ big league Spring Training camp.

Minnesota becomes Speas’ sixth different MLB organization within the last 14 months.  A second-round pick for the Rangers in the 2016 draft, Speas spent his entire pro career with Texas until October 2023, when the White Sox claimed the righty off waivers.  The A’s traded for Speas last April, and he subsequently went to the Astros and then the Red Sox on other waiver claims after being designated for assignment.  Boston DFA’ed Speas as well and outrighted him off their 40-man roster in August, and Speas finished out the season pitching with Triple-A Worcester.

Speas’ transactional whirlwind resulted in just a single game at the Major League level, as he tossed two relief innings for the Astros on May 31 (in a 6-1 loss to his new team, the Twins).  Speas’ overall MLB resume consists of four games, as he first reached the Show with three appearances for Texas during the 2023 season.  Speas has a 9.00 ERA in that small sample size as a big leaguer, and an 8.69 ERA in 58 career innings at the Triple-A level.

Those struggles can be directly traced to a garish 23.05% walk rate, as Speas’ inability to find the plate has left him unable to claim any sort of foothold in the majors.  Since Speas has a 28.13% strikeout rate at Triple-A and a fastball in the 100mph range, it is easy to see why teams keep taking chances on Speas, and the Twins will become the latest club to see if it can harness Speas’ control and turn him into a useful relief pitcher.  Speas turns 27 in March, so it isn’t too late for him to break out if he can deliver even a passable walk rate.

What Would It Take To Extend Tarik Skubal?

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The Tigers recently attempted to extend reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, according to a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, but Petzold suggests the offer from Detroit was not competitive and the sides ultimately did not come close to hammering out a deal. It’s certainly understandable that Detroit would have interest in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re just beginning to enter their competitive window and have just two years of team control over the southpaw remaining before he can depart in free agency. With that being said, Skubal is a client of Scott Boras, who typically encourages his players to test free agency to maximize value, and the lefty certainly has plenty of leverage coming off a 2024 season that saw him win the AL Triple Crown and become the club’s first Cy Young award winner since Max Scherzer in 2013.

That’s not to say an extension is necessarily impossible, however. A handful of high-profile Boras clients, including Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts, have previously signed extensions with their clubs prior to testing free agency. And there’s certainly precedent for Cy Young-caliber hurlers signing extensions, as well. The Tigers famously signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to two extensions across his 13 years in Detroit, the first being a five-year, $80MM contract that bought out his final two arbitration years and three free agent years prior to the 2010 season, and the second being a five-year deal signed prior to the 2013 season that covered the 2015-19 seasons and guaranteed Verlander an additional $140MM.

Verlander’s first contract stands as a fairly straightforward comparison point to Skubal given that the lefty is also two years away from free agency and Verlander had just finished third in AL Cy Young award voting prior to the deal being signed. However, that deal is a decade and a half old at this point and prices around the league have risen considerably in the ensuing years. Verlander’s second extension may serve as a more accurate point of comparison when discussing the possibility of another Cy Young winner extending his stay with the Tigers, given the high-end deals players such as Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) have signed over the past decade.

Perhaps the best comparison for Skubal’s situation can be found in right-hander Jacob deGrom, who inked an extension with the Mets prior to the 2019 season that covered the 2020-23 seasons. The deal guaranteed him $120.5MM in new money and included a club option for 2024 that could have raised the total guarantee to $153MM over five years. More importantly, the deal afforded deGrom the opportunity to opt out following the 2022 season. That deal was inked in a very similar situation to the one Skubal and the Tigers find themselves in now; deGrom was just two years from free agency and had secured his first career Cy Young award on the heels of an otherworldly season that saw him post a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 innings of work.

That season was even more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom at the time had a much less checkered injury history than Skubal currently does. While those factors may suggest that deGrom’s deal ought to be a target for the lefty to shoot for, he has one major factor on his side that could substantially boost his earning power beyond even that of deGrom: age. Skubal just turned 28 last week, but deGrom was nearly three years older than Skubal during his Cy Young-winning age-30 season back in 2018. In other words, Skubal is not only younger now than deGrom was at the time of his extension, but he’ll actually still be younger than deGrom was at the time of the deal when he’s slated to reach free agency following the 2026 season.

Being able to market an age-30 season in free agency is a huge boost to a player’s overall value on the open market, particularly for pitchers who teams are often hesitant to guarantee lengthy deals for. Cole’s massive nine-year deal with the Yankees came prior to his age-29 season, suggesting that a $300MM payday could be a stretch for Skubal, but Strasburg was a year older than Skubal will be upon reaching free agency when he secured his $245MM contract on the open market and even had a similarly checkered injury history to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal wound up being among the worst contracts in recent memory due to subsequent injury woes, which could make clubs skeptical of replicating it, but it’s easy to imagine Skubal landing a deal north of $200MM should he reach free agency during the 2026-27 offseason.

That’s a hefty price tag for the Tigers to contend with, but it’s certainly feasible they could put a compelling offer on the table. After all, the club has just two players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez and Colt Keith. Keith won’t make more than $5.3MM annually until and unless his club option for the 2030 season is picked up, while Baez’s $23.3MM AAV will drop off the books following the 2027 season. For a club that was able to afford hefty annual salaries to both Verlander and Miguel Cabrera a decade ago, it should be fairly manageable to commit an AAV in the $25-30MM range to Skubal.

Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8MM salary via arbitration this year, and would presumably be in line for a healthy raise next winter as well. If the Tigers were willing to guarantee Skubal a combined $25MM for his final two trips through arbitration, then perhaps a seven-year, $175MM extension could make sense for both sides. Such a deal would guarantee Skubal a total payday through his age-34 season that approaches the $200MM guarantee he could hope to land in free agency, while allowing the Tigers to lock up their ace through his prime years. It’s also possible that Skubal could take a page out of deGrom’s playbook and sacrifice some total guarantee in order to get a second bite at the apple in the form of an opt-out, perhaps following his age-32 season in 2029.

Rico Carty Passes Away

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Former All-Star Rico Carty passed away yesterday, according to a report from Dominican newspaper Listin Diario. The 15-year MLB veteran was 85 years old.

Born in San Pedro de Macoris, Carty signed with the then-Milwaukee Braves prior to the 1960 season as a catcher. During his time in the minor leagues, he converted to the outfield and, after a brief cup of coffee in 1963, emerged as the Braves’ regular left fielder during the 1964 season. In 133 games, Carty slashed an excellent .330/.388/.554 with 22 homers and 28 doubles. That excellent season earned him a second place finish behind Phillies infielder Dick Allen in Rookie of the Year voting. Back issues limited Carty to just 83 games the following year, though he continued to hit well when healthy enough to take the field.

Following the Braves’ relocation to Atlanta in 1966, Carty remained a fixture of the club’s lineup. He hit well during the club’s first year in Atlanta but slumped somewhat the following year as he slashed a relatively tepid .255/.329/.401 that, while decent, fell well short of his typical standards as a hitter. Carty then proceeded to miss the 1968 season due to a tuberculosis diagnosis. The ailment wiped out his entire season, but the slugger managed to recovery in time to return to the Braves early in May of 1969. Upon his return, he enjoyed the best offensive season of his career to that point with an excellent .342/.401/.549 slash line in 104 games.

After impressing in his return from illness the previous year, the 1970 season saw Carty reach his peak in his first full season back after recovering from tuberculosis. Then in his age-30 season, the slugger slashed an incredible .366/.454/.584 as he slugged 25 homers and 23 doubles while leading the league in both batting average and on-base percentage across 136 games. The superlative season saw Carty named an All-Star for the first and only time in his career and led him to a tenth-place finish in NL MVP voting behind titans of the game such as Johnny Bench, Billy Williams, Bob Gibson, and Willie McCovey.

Before Carty could follow up on that excellent season, however, he suffered a disastrous knee injury while playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic. He underwent surgery and tried to return to action in time for Spring Training 1971, but ultimately missed the entire season due to the injury. He returned to the lineup in 1972 but struggled to stay healthy once again and found himself limited to 86 games as he hit .277/.378/.408 with just six homers. That was Carty’s final season in a Braves uniform, as he was traded to the Rangers in October 1972.

The 1973 season was a tumultuous one for Carty. After suffering a fractured jaw while playing winter ball in the offseason, he began the season as the first regular DH in Rangers history but hit just .232/.311/.301 in 86 games with the club and bounced from the Cubs to the A’s throughout the remainder of the season after being placed on waivers. Those struggles seemed as though they may be the end of Carty’s career, but he caught fire after signing with the Mexican League’s Cafeteros de Cordoba. That excellent play in Mexico earned him another chance in the big leagues, as Cleveland brass decided to sign him to return to the big leagues.

It’s a gamble that wound up paying off, as Carty would spend four seasons in Ohio. From his signing in 1974 to his departure following the 1978 season, Carty slashed an excellent .303/.372/.455 with 47 homers and 81 doubles as the club’s regular DH. His best season in Cleveland came in 1976, when he slashed .310/.379/.442 and earned some down ballot consideration for the AL MVP award. Carty was traded to the Blue Jays (who had briefly selected him in the 1976 expansion draft before quickly trading him back to Cleveland that same offseason) prior to the 1978 season, and he continued to provide value as he slashed .282/.348/.502 with a career-best 31 homers at the age of 38 in a season split between Toronto and Oakland.

Carty’s big league career came to a close in 1979, when he hit .256/.322/.390 in 132 games for the Blue Jays. He later worked for Toronto as a scout in Latin America and was inducted to the Braves Hall of Fame in 2023. Overall, the 15-year veteran was a career .299/.369/.464 hitter in the big leagues and collected 1677 hits, including 204 home runs, during his time as a major leaguer. MLBTR joins the rest of the baseball world in extending our condolences to Carty’s family, friends, loved ones, and fans.

Red Sox Reportedly Considering Moving Rafael Devers Off Third Base

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The Red Sox have held internal discussions regarding the possibility of moving longtime third baseman Rafael Devers off the position, per a report from MassLive’s Sean McAdam. McAdam goes on to suggest that the club views a trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado with the Cardinals as a potential option to fill their vacancy at the hot corner in the event Devers changes positions, whether that be a move to first base or DH.

The idea of Devers moving to first base has previously been floated by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and The New York Post’s Jon Heyman throughout the offseason so far, though McAdam’s report stands as the first confirmation that a position change for Devers is under internal consideration within the organization. Previously, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has declined to comment on the possibility of moving Devers off third beyond saying that the club wouldn’t seriously entertain the idea without first discussing it with Devers himself. That could be a complicating factor in a position change, as Devers’s agent, Nelson Montes de Oca, recently told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that Devers has no plans to move off the hot corner.

“He is a third baseman,” Montes de Oca told Speier, “and he will continue to play third base and work hard to get better at it. That’s his position, that’s what he likes to play, and that’s what he will be playing.”

Resistance to a position change from Devers’s camp isn’t the only potential obstacle to a move. After all, the Red Sox have an extremely talented incumbent first baseman in Triston Casas, who at just 24 years old remains under team control for four more seasons and has previously expressed interest in signing with Boston on a long-term extension. The youngster missed much of the 2024 season due to injury but is a career .250/.357/.473 (125 wRC+) hitter since making his big league debut late in the 2022 season. There’s been speculation at times this winter that the Red Sox could consider moving on from Casas to land starting pitching, but Breslow was quick to shoot down those rumors earlier this month. Given that, a move to first base for Devers would require the front office to either reverse their stance on dealing Casas or else park him at DH on a regular basis, pushing Masataka Yoshida (and the three years and $55.6MM remaining on his contract) either to the bench or off the roster entirely.

Complicated as a position change for Devers would be, the potential benefits for the club could be substantial. Devers is among the worst fielding third basemen in the sport by most metrics, and a move across the diamond would surely improve the club’s infield defense dramatically. In 2024, Devers was worth -9 Defensive Runs Saved and posted a -5 in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric. That’s the lowest DRS and tied for the lowest FRV among all qualified (min. 750 innings) third basemen this year. Replacing Devers with an average or even slightly below average glove at third would improve the club’s infield defense considerably, but a position change for Devers would likely be just as motivated by it creating an avenue to improving the club’s offense.

If third base were to be opened by Devers moving to first, that would create an easy place for the Red Sox to add a right-handed bat to the lineup. Adding some thump from the right side has been a priority for Boston dating back to the trade deadline, and the club’s need for a right-handed hitter to add to their offense only grew more pronounced when outfielder Tyler O’Neill hit the open market earlier this month. Most attention on this need has been focused on the outfield at this point in the offseason given the club’s reported interest in either a reunion with O’Neill or pivoting to a deal with Teoscar Hernandez, but the club’s outfield remains crowded with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all in the mix for playing time already before considering top prospect Roman Anthony (or veterans Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder), who should be ready to take on a regular role at some point in 2025.

Complicated as that outfield picture already is, it’s easy to see why adding a right-handed bat to the infield could be a preferable, more straightforward option than adding another player to the club’s logjam on the grass. Given that, it’s perhaps no surprise that the club has been connected to both longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and former Brewers shortstop Willy Adames in free agency. Both players have expressed an openness to moving to second base (as well as third, in the case of Adames) if their new club so desires, meaning the addition of either player wouldn’t necessarily require Devers to change positions. With highly-regarded second base prospect Kristian Campbell seemingly in the mix for starts in Boston as soon as Opening Day, however, it’s easy to see why the Red Sox may prefer to install Bregman or Adames at the hot corner and move Devers to first.

While the club’s interest in Bregman and Adames has been reported semi-frequently to this point in the winter, McAdam’s suggestion that Arenado could be a consideration for the Red Sox is the first connection between Boston and the veteran star. Unlike Bregman and Adames, it’s all but unfathomable that a ten-time Gold Glove award winner like Arenado would change positions in deference to Devers, meaning a deal for the 33-year-old would certainly require a position change for the younger star. Arenado is also coming off his second consecutive down season offensively. While he was a finalist for the NL MVP award back in 2022, he’s hit just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in two seasons since then.

That said, Arenado’s defense has remained well above average even if it’s no longer quite as elite as it was during his peak, and that’s allowed him to be a roughly three-win player in each of the past two seasons. While he may no longer offer the same level of impact as Bregman or Adames, the three years and $74MM remaining on the veteran’s contract pales in comparison to the nine-figure sums both free agents are expected to land and would likely do little to impede Boston’s pursuit of other top-of-the-market names like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell, especially if a deal involved the Cardinals either retaining some money or taking on a sizable portion of Yoshida’s contract in return. Any deal involving Arenado, of course, would require the veteran’s approval given his full no-trade clause. While the 33-year-old hasn’t requested a trade to this point, both he and the Cardinals appear to be open to parting ways if the right deal comes along given the club’s plans to retool and focus on youth in 2025.

Yankees Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Yankees and right-hander Walker Buehler have “some mutual interest” in each other, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.  New York joins the Braves and Athletics as teams already publicly linked to Buehler in the first few weeks of free agency.

The added wrinkle of the Yankees’ pursuit, of course, is that Buehler delivered some of the best moments of his career against the Bronx Bombers during this year’s World Series.  Buehler tossed five shutout innings in the Dodgers’ 4-2 win over the Yankees in Game 3, and followed up that strong start by getting the save in the scoreless ninth inning of Game 5, as Buehler threw the final pitches that sealed the Dodgers’ championship.

Those clutch performances (and four more innings of shutout ball against the Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS) helped bring a happy ending to an otherwise difficult season for the 30-year-old righty.  Buehler missed all of 2023 recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, and returned to post a 5.38 ERA over 16 starts and 75 1/3 innings for Los Angeles during the regular season.  Pretty much all of Buehler’s secondary numbers and metrics were down from his career norms, including an 18.6% strikeout rate that ranked only in the 16th percentile of all pitchers.

It isn’t uncommon for any pitcher returning from a TJ procedure to initially struggle against big league hitters, even if Buehler has the extra baggage of both his 2022 surgery and the surgery he underwent soon after being drafted by the Dodgers in 2015.  Nathan Eovaldi and Daniel Hudson are two of the more prominent examples of pitchers who continued to have success after returning from two Tommy John surgeries, but obviously there’s some risk attached to Buehler going forward, even if the upside is clearly also present.

MLBTR projected Buehler to sign a one-year, $15MM deal this offseason, with the reasoning that he would seek out a pillow contract for 2025 and then quickly return to the market next winter after (hopefully) posting some front-of-the-rotation numbers.  Any number of teams could potentially be fits for Buehler on such a short-term deal, though presumably he would prefer pitching for a contender.

New York fits that description, and the Yankees are at least monitoring the free agent pitching market given reports noting their interest in Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Sean Manaea.  The Bombers have the resources to broadly check in on basically any free agent at least out of due diligence, and the perception is that the club is prioritizing re-signing Juan Soto before any other bigger-ticket offseason business.

Signing Buehler to a one-year deal might not necessarily count as “bigger-ticket” in comparison to those other frontline pitchers who will command hefty multi-year contracts.  Any additions to the rotation, however, would seemingly necessitate a trade since the Yankees already have six rotation candidates on the roster in Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.  Cortes or Stroman are the likeliest trade candidates if New York does indeed add another starter, and moving pitching could allow the Yankees to address other needs in the lineup or bullpen.

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