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Guardians, Triston McKenzie Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians and right-hander Triston McKenzie have agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided on X. The Octagon client will make a salary of $1.95MM in 2025.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected McKenzie for a salary of $2.4MM next year, but he’ll actually come up shy of that number. That’s usually the case for deals agreed to at this part of the calendar.

Friday evening is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The two sides will still have plenty of time to negotiate the figures but clubs sometimes offer “take it or leave it” style deals ahead of the deadline for players that are borderline cases to be tendered in the first place. Such “pre-tender” deals often come in below projections, as the club is essentially telling the player to take a lower salary or else be non-tendered and sent into free agency.

It’s a remarkable position for McKenzie to be in, considering how things looked just two years ago. By the end of the 2022 season, he had thrown 344 2/3 innings with a 3.68 earned run average. He had struck out 27% of batters faced while giving out walks just 8.1% of the time. With the Guardians having a tremendous reputation for finding and developing starting pitching, it seemed as though they had found yet another rotation building block.

But McKenzie has had a rough time since then. He was injured for much of 2023, first due to a right teres major strain. He came off the IL and made a pair of starts but went right back on the shelf, that time due to a sprain in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow. He opted for non-surgical rehab and was able to come back for two more starts late in the year.

Any hopes for a bounceback in 2024 were quickly dashed. His velocity was down and he clearly wasn’t in a good space mentally. While he wasn’t in pain, he did say in mid-April that the possibility of re-injuring himself was weighing on his mind. He was optioned to the minors in June after having made 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate were both far worse than his previous work. He posted a 5.23 ERA at the Triple-A the rest of the way with roughly similar strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 13.9% respectively.

Despite the strong form he showed earlier in his career, the injury-wrecked season followed by a dismal performance in 2024 made McKenzie a non-tender candidate, but the two sides will instead reunite. It’s an understandable gambit for the Guards to take. Even for a lower-spending club like them, $1.95MM is almost nothing by MLB standards. If McKenzie can bounce back at all in 2025, he’d be well worth that price. They would also be able to retain him via arbitration again in 2026, so there could be a further payoff if McKenzie can put his recent rough stretch in the past.

McKenzie is now out of options, so the club won’t be able to easily send him to Triple-A again if that bounceback doesn’t come. But given their current roster, there could be a path for him to stick around. Their rotation is in rough shape, an unusual position for the club to be in. Apart from Tanner Bibee, there’s not much they can bank on. Ben Lively had a good year but is a journeyman who’s about to turn 33. Gavin Williams was hurt for much of 2024 and finished with a 4.86 ERA. Joey Cantillo has less than 40 innings in the majors and a track record of terrible control in the minors. Logan Allen had a 5.73 ERA for the year.

Offseason moves could reshape that rotation but McKenzie could earn a role in there if he looks good in the spring. Or perhaps a bullpen move would be an option, as McKenzie’s last three Triple-A appearances in 2024 were in relief. Either way, it’s a modest bet for the club to make with a decent chance at a nice payout. For McKenzie, he can put a bit more money in the bank while staying in familiar environs and not have to spend his winter sweating about finding a new job.

Rangers Sign Caleb Boushley To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-hander Caleb Boushley to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Round Rock for now but will presumably receive an invite to major league spring training.

Boushley, 31, has a small amount of major league experience. He made one appearance for the Brewers last year and two for the Twins this year. He has thrown 6 1/3 innings in the big leagues, allowing three earned runs.

He has naturally had a larger body of work in the minors. Over the past three years, he has made 80 Triple-A appearances, including 77 starts. In his 397 1/3 frames, he has a 4.55 earned run average, 18.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate.

He was outrighted off the Twins’ roster in September and was able to elect free agency at season’s end, which has led to this deal with Texas. The Rangers have plenty of rotation uncertainty, having recently lost Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Max Scherzer and José Ureña to free agency. They have interest in bringing back some guys from that group but they are reportedly planning to duck under the competitive balance tax next year, which could lead to some budgetary constraints this winter.

On paper, the current rotation includes Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter and others, though there are plenty of question marks in that group. deGrom and Mahle returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024 but each of them made just three major league starts this year. Gray and Bradford missed decent chunks of the 2024 season as well. Dunning has been deployed as more of a depth/swing guy and could be a non-tender candidate. Rocker and Leiter each have less than 40 innings of major league experience.

Boushley will give the club a bit of non-roster depth. Even if he doesn’t earn a job out of camp, the Rangers might need a spot start or long reliever as the season goes along. Should Boushley get on the 40-man roster at some point, he still has options and could be freely moved to Round Rock and back, though a player can only be optioned five times in one season.

Kennedy: Red Sox Willing To Pay Competitive Balance Tax In 2025

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Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”

Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.

Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.

Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.

“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”

Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.

That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.

Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.

Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.

However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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Speculation regarding a potential offseason trade of Nolan Arenado kicked up the moment president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced the club would take a step back and focus on player development and that they were beginning a transitional process that would see Chaim Bloom take over as president of baseball operations beginning next offseason. Unsurprisingly, that announcement was quickly followed by reports that the Cardinals indeed planned to gauge the market for interest in Arenado.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch now reports that, to no one’s surprise, the Cardinals have spent the early stages of the offseason doing just that. He adds one critical element, writing that Arenado has not specifically asked to be traded. That’s a key wrinkle in the saga, as it differs from the last time Arenado was traded. The then-Rockies third baseman was frustrated in the years following his initial extension in Colorado, as the team hadn’t put together a competitive roster. Given the circumstances leading to his last trade, it was only fair to wonder whether Arenado might waive his no-trade clause to try to facilitate a trade to a team with more of a win-now mentality than the 2025 Cardinals will have. That doesn’t appear to be the case at this time.

It’s still possible, of course, that Arenado could be on the move at some point this winter. While he apparently has not specifically requested a trade, there’s simultaneously no indication that he’s voiced a preference to remain with the Cardinals through their reset period (as teammates Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, who also have no-trade clauses, reportedly have done). Arenado’s original motivation in pursuing a trade from the Rockies and his decision to forgo the opt-out in his contract following the 2021 season stemmed from a desire to put down roots in a perennially competitive setting.

If the Cards find a deal to their liking that would send him to a clear win-now team, they’d likely present him with the scenario and he’d then have to weigh the merits of approving a deal. But, that’s a far different scenario than Arenado asking to be moved and the pressure that would put on Mozeliak, Bloom and the rest of the front office to find a deal or head into the season with a veteran who’s clearly unhappy to be on the roster.

Arenado, 34 in April, has had consecutive underwhelming seasons at the plate. He’s posted a solid but unremarkable .269/.320/.426 slash (104 wRC+) since Opening Day 2023, striking out in only 15.5% of his plate appearances but also walking at a tepid 6.8% clip. Despite all the accolades he’s amassed in his career, he’s never been a consistent source of premium contact (at least by measure of exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate). Still, he posted career-low marks in all of those categories this past season, including a particularly light 3.2% barrel rate and 31.2% hard-hit rate.

That said, Arenado remains at least an average hitter with plus bat-to-ball skills and a premium glove at the hot corner. His defensive ratings aren’t as lofty as they were when the six-time Platinum Glove winner was widely regarded as perhaps the best defensive player in Major League Baseball, regardless of position. However, he still posted emphatically positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (6) and Outs Above Average (9). Arenado’s nine errors this year tied for his career-low mark in a 162-game season. He’s as surehanded as they come, and though his arm strength (by measure of Statcast) has continued to dip in recent seasons, his range remains elite.

As recently as 2022, Arenado was an MVP finalist who posted a .293/.358/.533 batting line with 30 homers and elite glovework. Even if he can’t return to those heights, he’s an above-average player on a contract that doesn’t exactly pay him like a superstar anyhow. Arenado is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, but the Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that sum ($5MM in both 2025 and 2026).

It’s a frontloaded deal — he’s owed $32MM, $27MM and $15MM in the next three seasons — so perhaps the hefty 2025 salary ($27MM after the Rockies’ contributions) could be a pause for some interested parties. On the other hand, a big-payroll club that’s accustomed to paying the luxury tax might not balk too much at Arenado’s effective $21.33MM average annual value, for tax purposes. His remaining guarantee and the associated AAV are generally in line with what good but non-superstar free agents like Christian Walker and Teoscar Hernandez are expected to command.

Goold notes that the Cardinals don’t feel any financial pressure at this point to shed the deal. They’ve already scaled back payroll quite a bit and could do so with further trades of shorter-term players. As such, they might not be compelled to simply move Arenado to a team that’s willing to absorb the contract but offer minimal prospects.

At the same time, if the Cardinals’ lack of financial pressure means they’d be comfortable paying down some of that remaining salary, they could in effect buy a better return. Covering even one-third of the contract would render Arenado priced comparably to the three years and $45MM that Jeimer Candelario secured in free agency last winter. Plenty of clubs might be intrigued in that scenario. It’s ultimately Arenado’s call, thanks to that no-trade protection, but to this point he’s not forcing the team’s hand.

Details On MLB’s Future Broadcasting Plans

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Back in February, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said that he wanted to be able to market a blackout-free streaming bundle including roughly half the league. That plan was largely tied to the collapse of Diamond Sports Group, though that company is now emerging from bankruptcy and will continue to operate for the time being. That seems to have kicked Manfred’s plans down the road a little bit, with Evan Drellich of The Athletic doing a deep dive this week on the current state of things.

Manfred still has his sights set on getting rid of local blackouts as part of TV/streaming packages, though it might now have to wait a few years. While some clubs that lost their broadcast deals are now letting MLB handle things, others have re-upped with Diamond. The Braves, Cardinals, Marlins, Angels, Tigers, and Rays are back with Diamond while the Royals might also join them, depending on the outcome of ongoing negotiations. But Drellich notes that none of those deals go beyond 2028.

That is significant because that is also the year that MLB’s national broadcast deals with Fox, ESPN* and Turner expire. (*As a side note, Drellich notes that MLB and ESPN have a mutual opt-out after this season but talks about that are ongoing.) The league’s hope is to have as much on the table as possible when negotiating new national deals. “Most important from my perspective is that all the deals for the Diamond clubs end no later than 2028,” Manfred says in the piece. “My interest in local rights in large part is to have them available when we do national renewals.”

The bidding could include more than those three companies that MLB currently has national deals with, as Drellich notes that executives from Apple, Amazon, CBS, Disney/ESPN, DirecTV, Fox, Netflix, NBC/Peacock, Roku, YouTube and Warner Bros.-Discovery were present at the World Series. MLB already has a deal with Roku for Sunday games, a slot previously held by Peacock. Apple has Friday Night Baseball while the Diamond clubs will be available on Amazon Prime next year. YouTube had a previous deal with MLB that ran from 2019 to 2022.

The regional sports network (RSN) model has been a huge source of revenue for all teams in the past but cord cutting has chipped away at that model. The Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies all operated without an RSN partner in 2024, with the league handling their broadcasts both for TV/cable/satellite and direct-to-consumer streaming. The Twins, Guardians, Brewers and Reds will go down that path in 2025.

Simplistically, this is bad for teams but good for fans. The clubs are losing that passive revenue, as many people previously signed up for cable/satellite bundles that included sports RSNs even if they weren’t much interested in baseball. The streaming model cuts out the middleman but requires more active uptake from fans and leads to lower revenues, at least in the short term. But for fans, this allows them to finally get around the blackouts that have been an annoying part of the RSN paradigm for decades.

Though the revenue streams aren’t as strong, the league seems to recognize that this is the way of the future and is trying to lean into it. Though as detailed by Drellich, actually following through will be complicated.

“I’d like to have all the rights available,” Manfred said. “I’d like to talk to the people who are buyers. I’d like to cut them up into packages and sell them, as many of them as possible, nationally, and then have a plan to deal with what’s left over.”

As mentioned, the league already has seven clubs on its ledger, though Drellich adds that it’s technically eight. The Mariners took control of ROOT Sports Northwest a year ago but Drellich relays that the league is involved to some degree as well. If the six or seven clubs with Diamond eventually link up with the league a few years down the line, that would be roughly half the league. The Rangers are sort of a wild card at present, as they don’t plan to continue their relationship with Diamond but haven’t yet outlined a plan for 2025, reportedly exploring the creation of their own RSN. Drellich says close to two thirds of the league could have their rights available by 2028, presumably due to other non-Diamond RSN deals expiring. Some clubs still have relationships with NBC affiliates or other broadcasters.

The issue in MLB getting the other clubs on board is that they are in very different financial positions. Broadly speaking, the larger-market clubs are in better shape, both because of stronger viewership bases and because the club and its broadcaster are often the same company. If all the clubs were cobbled together as part of some bundle which spread the profits around, that would benefit the smaller clubs while harming the larger ones.

That would naturally be unappealing to the larger clubs, though Drellich notes that a compromise could perhaps be reached by changing the overall revenue sharing. Currently, each clubs shares 48% of their local revenues (local media, ticket sales, concessions, merchandise and sponsorships). The Drellich piece suggests that greater sharing of broadcast money could be accompanied by less sharing of the other streams.

“I do think there are a combination of things that for even the very biggest teams,” Manfred says, “we can demonstrate that for the good of the game over the long haul, it’s better for everybody and better for them.”

Another complication is that the MLB Players Association would have to be involved. They don’t need to be consulted when it comes to broadcast decisions but all revenue-sharing plans need to be collectively bargained. The current collective bargaining agreement runs until December of 2026, so these matters will likely need to be hammered out in the next CBA, ahead of the aforementioned key pivot point in 2028.

“If the model changes, we will be involved in negotiating how those changes might affect the system and will ensure that the interests and priorities of the players are protected,” says Tony Clark, the head of the MLBPA. The relationship between the league and the union hasn’t been great lately, with the most recent CBA talks resulting in a lockout of more than three months that almost resulted in the 2022 season being canceled or shortened. A deal did get done and the season was spared, but some key issues went unaddressed and will likely come up again, such as an international draft. Then there’s the ever-present CBA issues like salaries, the competitive balance tax and so on.

Presumably, Manfred won’t want another work stoppage just ahead of his big pitch to potential broadcasters. Anything that hurts fan interest in the game would naturally make those rights less appealing, but the league’s motivation to get a deal done will obviously be contingent on how effectively they can negotiate all CBA issues with the players. The two sides agreed in July of this year to have CBT money redirected to those clubs who lost broadcast revenue, so perhaps some of this could be accomplished outside of full CBA talks.

There are many balls in the air here and a few years for them to bounce around, but Manfred will need to find a path forward that satisfies the owners as well as the players. If he succeeds, it could be good for growing the game by improving fan access to the product. An entrenchment of the current paradigm, on the other hand, could perhaps increase fan dissatisfaction with the inequalities that impact competitive balance.

How it all plays out will lead to ripple effects that impact the on-field product. The Padres and Twins have already scaled back their payrolls in response to the shifting landscape. This seemed to have an impact on last winter’s market, with several free agents settling for deals that fell well below initial projections. Clubs like the Cardinals and Rangers are also planning to dial things back next year.

Roki Sasaki’s Agent Denies Rumors Of Handshake Deal With Dodgers

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Speculation about the likelihood of star Nippon Professional Baseball right-hander being likely to sign with the Dodgers — or even having a predetermined “handshake” deal to sign in L.A. once formally posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines — has drawn a sharp rebuke from his representatives. Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman emphatically denied that there’s any truth to those rumors, telling Evan Drellich of The Athletic:

“While a bunch of executives who should know me better and do a lot of business with me insult my integrity by insinuating that I would be a part of some type of nefarious agreement, in reality, this is just poor sportsmanship.”

Much of the speculation regarding the Dodgers and Sasaki stems from the Dodgers having the largest amount of money remaining in their 2024 international bonus pool — roughly $2.5MM. There’s also the fact that the Dodgers employ a pair of high-profile Japanese stars, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the latter of whom is also represented by Wolfe and Wasserman. Of course, Wolfe/Wasserman are no strangers to representing high-profile international talent. They’ve also represented NPB stars like Kodai Senga and Seiya Suzuki, among others, in recent years.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred suggested this week that Sasaki’s posting will likely stretch into the 2025 signing period, which throws a wrench into the thinking behind the Dodgers having an edge due to their remaining amount of international pool space. When the 2025 signing period kicks off on Jan. 15, the Dodgers will be tied with the Giants for the smallest pool in the game at $5,146,200, per Baseball America. (The Dodgers forfeited two draft picks and $1MM in international pool space when signing Ohtani last offseason.)

All clubs are able to acquire additional bonus pool space, which is tradeable in $250K increments. However, a club can only acquire up to 60% of its initial pool allotment. For the Dodgers, that means they’ll be capped at offering a bonus in the vicinity of $8.25MM to Sasaki, and even that would require trading plenty of assets in order to acquire the maximum $3.09MM in extra space they can add. Each of the Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Twins, Brewers, A’s, Mariners and Rays, meanwhile will start the 2025 period with pools of $7.555MM. The Padres, another commonly speculated landing spot for Sasaki, will begin the 2025 period with a $6.26MM pool.

In theory, any of those teams with a $7.555MM pool could offer a maximum bonus of just over $12MM if they succeed in acquiring the full 60% of possible additional space. The Padres and others in their bracket could top out at just over $10MM.

In practice, however, it’s unlikely another club would be able to acquire such a weighty slate of international funds. Teams throughout the league continue to thumb their nose at the supposed rules barring them from negotiating advance deals with teenage talent on the international free agent market. Most clubs have already committed the majority of their 2025 pools on handshake deals with teenage prospects in Latin America. Whichever club signs Sasaki will likely do so at the cost of reneging on existing agreements with amateurs in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and other Latin American countries. Similarly, teams that don’t feel they have a real chance to sign Sasaki will be reluctant to trade significant chunks of their bonus pool, given that so many of those dollars are effectively committed elsewhere.

Baseball America’s Ben Badler took a comprehensive look at the ripple effects of Sasaki’s signing potentially pushing into next year’s period last week, before Manfred had publicly suggested that was likely. As Badler reports, the Dodgers and Padres have committed less of their 2025 pool to Latin American agreements than most clubs around the league, likely due to their hope that Sasaki would be posted and they’d be positioned to make the best offer.

However, it’s also likely that there will be clubs that are willing to scrap their existing verbal agreements in order to make a full-fledged pursuit of Sasaki. Some of those teams will inherently have more to offer the right-hander. The trickle-down effect could see players who thought they’d be signing with a Sasaki bidder instead explore last-minute deals with other clubs, creating a domino effect throughout the Latin American market.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently tackled this issue as well, exploring the many pitfalls of a flawed international free agent system the league and MLBPA have yet to sufficiently address. As he notes, it feels patently ridiculous that a player like Sasaki, who has dominated in NPB for the past four seasons and just turned 23, is categorized alongside a 16-year-old prospect from Latin America. Rosenthal suggested the league separate Sasaki from international bonus pools but not make him an unrestricted free agent; rather, cap his bonus at the $7.555MM sum the top teams will have in next year’s signing period. That’s an imperfect solution in and of itself, of course. It could also very well push Sasaki toward one of the widely expected landing spots (L.A. or San Diego) anyhow; all teams would effectively be on an even playing field, and a West Coast, win-now club would quite possibly hold more appeal than a Midwest team with less certain playoff aspirations.

There’s no perfect solution that can be put forth in the coming weeks. Sasaki’s decision to leave literally hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Yamamoto waited until he was 25 years old to shed his “amateur” status and commanded a $325MM deal in L.A. — creates an impossible predicament for Major League Baseball and its current international amateur setup.

This situation will assuredly be a talking point, if not the focal point, during ensuing discussions regarding a potential international draft in the next wave of collective bargaining talks between MLB and the Players Association. For now, it’s a messy situation that’ll result in plenty of accusations, finger-pointing, and likely some jilted Latin American prospects who are left scrambling for new arrangements.

Mariners Showing Interest In Carlos Santana

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander already confirmed earlier in the offseason that the club has discussed a potential reunion with Justin Turner, and they’re also weighing a reunion with another former Mariner. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the M’s have spoken to free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, who spent part of the 2022 season in Seattle. Jude cites multiple sources in adding that interest in bringing one of the two back to Seattle is strong enough that it’s considered a “likelihood” the Mariners will close a deal with one of them.

Santana, 39 in April, is fresh off his best year since 2019. He spent the 2024 campaign in Minnesota, serving as the Twins’ everyday first baseman and winning a Gold Glove for his defensive efforts there. He also slashed .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers in 594 plate appearances. That’s good for a solid 114 wRC+ (indicating he was 14% better than league-average at the plate), but setting aside a catastrophically poor first three weeks of the season, Santana hit .253/.342/.460 (129 wRC+, or 29%  better than average) after connecting on his first homer in late April.

That type of production would appeal to just about any club, particularly when coupled with excellent defense and a stellar clubhouse reputation. That latter factor is also a key part of the Mariners’ interest in both Turner and Santana, per Jude. At the end of the season, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto voiced a desire to add some veteran voices to help lead a young clubhouse, Jude writes, specifically name-dropping both Turner and Santana as examples of players who’ve played key leadership roles during partial seasons in Seattle.

There are other reasons to think both players fit the Mariners’ roster. Both Turner (17.6%) and Santana (16.7%) struck out well below the 22.6% league average in 2024. The Mariners’ collective 26.8% strikeout rate was the worst in MLB. Whittling that number down should be a priority, and either veteran first baseman would help the club take strides toward that end.

Both Turner and Santana are also natural fits to pair up with Luke Raley at first base. Turner’s right-handed bat makes him a logical platoon partner at first, and he hits righties enough to take DH at-bats even when Raley draws a start in the field. Santana’s glove probably would push Raley to a primary DH/corner outfield role, but the veteran switch-hitter is much better from the right side of the plate. For a Mariners club that hit only .213/.300/.363 against southpaws last year, Santana’s .286/.356/.578 slash against lefties has to look especially appealing.

Either Santana or Turner should be available on a one-year deal. Santana will surely command a raise on last year’s modest $5.25MM salary, whereas Turner could be in line for a cut from last year’s $13MM rate of pay. Again, for a Mariners club that’s expected to increase payroll, but perhaps not by leaps and bounds over the roughly $145MM mark at which they finished the 2024 campaign, that makes either veteran a logical target. RosterResource currently projects the Mariners for a $150MM payroll, though that figure could change in the next 36 hours based on non-tenders and/or potential trades of non-tender candidates.

The Mariners haven’t been shy about their desire to add infield bats this offseason. Dipoto and Hollander have voiced confidence in an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Raley. They’re looking to add a bat capable of spending some time at first base and either a second baseman or third baseman — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore standing as candidates to platoon at the other spot. Turner or Santana would check one box and do so both affordably and while improving the club’s overall contact rate.

Red Sox, Dodgers Have Met With Blake Snell

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Juan Soto’s meetings with owners around the leagues have dominated headlines recently, but he’s not the only high-profile free agent or Scott Boras client setting up meetings with team contingents. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that left-hander Blake Snell has held recent meetings with both the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Blue Jays are also pursuing Snell, per Rosenthal’s report, and could soon set up a meeting of their own. The Orioles are another potential club who could do so.

Both Boston and Los Angeles have reason to be in on high-end rotation help this summer, and the 32-year-old Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner, clearly fits the billing. Similarly, Snell has good motivation to push for a swifter free agency than last offseason, after lingering on the market into spring training and signing a two-year deal with an opt-out in San Francisco less than two weeks before Opening Day.

For the Red Sox, Snell would add a No. 1 starter to the top of a rotation that could lose Nick Pivetta to free agency after he rejected a qualifying offer. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are all rotation locks right now. Lucas Giolito will join them at some point in the season’s first half, but his timeline remains murky after he missed the entire 2024 season — his first in Boston — thanks to UCL surgery performed in spring training. Righty Garrett Whitlock is also on the mend from his own UCL procedure.

Candidates for the final two rotation spots at Fenway Park currently include Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and Zach Penrod. Criswell looked to have a leg up after a decent season, due to a lack of minor league options, but he’s reportedly eligible for a fourth option year, which gives the Sox even more flexibility with their staff.

Many Red Sox fans are understandably skeptical of the team’s willingness to follow through on pursuits of high-profile free agents. Boston faithful are still stinging from chairman Tom Werner’s widely mocked “full throttle” comments last offseason, which did not result in an acquisition larger than Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM contract. But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has taken a more aggressive stance himself this time around, declaring that it’s time for the Red Sox to “deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East” even if that means the Sox need to be “aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization.”

From a payroll perspective, the Red Sox have more than enough space to accommodate multiple big-ticket additions this winter. RosterResource currently projects Boston for a $138MM payroll and $171MM worth of luxury obligations. That projection is nearly $100MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, while their luxury ledger right now leaves them $70MM shy of the first tier threshold. Of course, the Red Sox haven’t been shy about paying the luxury tax in the past, either. They did so as recently as 2022 and have now reset their penalty level by dipping back under the tax line. The Red Sox have an extremely small arbitration class — just Houck, Crawford and Jarren Duran — and will only add Triston Casas, Connor Wong and perhaps Zack Kelly to that group in 2026.

Turning to the Dodgers, there’s an obvious case for Snell as a fit. Connections like this can often be more anecdotal than substantive, but it at least bears mentioning that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was running baseball operations in Tampa Bay when the Rays drafted and developed Snell. Outside their deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — two players with unique free agent circumstances — the Dodgers have preferred shorter-term, high-AAV deals in free agency. That could make Snell, whose maximum contract length is perhaps shorter than other top-tier starters because he’s about to turn 32 years old, a more typical “Dodgers” fit.

One deterrent for the Dodgers could be an already bloated luxury-tax bill. RosterResource pegs them at $270MM in obligations, meaning they’re already well into the second tier of penalty. Snell alone could push them into the fourth tier, particularly on a high-AAV short-term deal. Even using last year’s $31MM AAV as a hypothetical guideline — and Snell has a case for a higher one on another relatively short deal — Snell would cost the Dodgers nearly $57MM in year one of the contract. That’d also set the Dodgers up to pay a 110% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Trades and non-tenders could lessen the sting, but likely not by much. Any free agent dollars spent by the Dodgers are going to hurt.

Still, the Dodgers likely feel they need to bite that bullet. The rotation in Los Angeles has nearly unmatched star power but similarly has nearly unrivaled question marks. Yamamoto, Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow make up a potentially dominant top three, but health concerns abound. Yamamoto missed more than two months with a shoulder injury in 2024. Glasnow was limited to only 22 starts last year, and his modest 134 innings represented a career-high. Ohtani didn’t pitch while recovering from the second UCL repair of his career.

Beyond that talented but risky top three are Tony Gonsolin (who missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery), Dustin May (who missed all of 2024 recovering from forearm surgery and an esophageal procedure) and Bobby Miller (a breakout 2023 rookie who struggled immensely in 2024). Highly touted young arms like Gavin Stone (shoulder surgery), River Ryan (Tommy John surgery), Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) will miss some or all of the 2025 season. Dodgers icon Clayton Kershaw will be back on some form of incentive-laden deal — he’s already declared as much — though the two parties have yet to come to specific terms. Kershaw started just seven games last year.

Snell, of course, has his own lengthy injury history — including a pair of groin and adductor injuries that limited him to six awful starts in the season’s first two months with the archrival Giants. However, upon returning in early July, the lefty looked back to Cy Young form. He fired 12 shutout frames between his first two starts, kicking off a three-month run for the ages. Snell tossed a no-hitter at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park against the Reds, fanned 15 Rockies in a start at Coors Field and at one point went on a streak of four double-digit strikeout performances in five starts.

Over the final three months of the season, Snell was comically dominant. He pitched 80 1/3 innings with a jaw-dropping 1.23 ERA, complemented by an elite 38.1% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate that’s higher than average but passable for someone who can miss bats at Snell’s level. It was only 14 starts, but Snell was the best pitcher in baseball from July 2 onward.

Snell has a history of slow starts and blistering second-half surges, but as I examined late in the season for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, many of his first-half struggles have come in conjunction with unusual spring circumstances (i.e. the shortened 2020 season, the accelerated ramp-up from the 2021-22 lockout, and signing in late March last year). True, there are pitchers who’ve succeeded in spite of similar circumstances, but we’ve also repeatedly seen late-signing pitchers struggle early in the year (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, to name a few). It’s eminently possible that Snell is the type of pitcher who simply needs a full runway to realize his best form. He’d hardly be alone in that regard, and that characteristic gives him all the more motivation to have a deal in place well before spring training begins.

Snell faces some notable competition on the free agent market. Some clubs may not want to spend aggressively on another free agent before they know the outcome of the Juan Soto auction, and even those willing to spend sooner than that will also have to weigh the merits of signing a 32-year-old Snell versus a 31-year-old Max Fried, 30-year-old Corbin Burnes or 29-year-old Jack Flaherty. Fried and Burnes have qualifying offers attached to them, whereas Snell and Flaherty do not; in other words, teams will have to forfeit draft picks and international bonus pool space to sign Fried or Burnes — but not Snell or Flaherty. Snell is three years older than Flaherty but also more accomplished. He certainly has his warts and carries plenty of risk, but it’s easy enough to see how a club could view Snell as the most appealing of this offseason’s top-tier starters when factoring in likely length of contract, draft compensation, track record, health and other factors.

The Opener: MVP, Pre-Tender Deals, Non-Tender Candidates

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. MVP winners to be announced:

Award season is set to wrap up at 5pm CT this evening with the unveiling of MVP results in both leagues. There isn’t much suspense regarding the winner in either league, as the AL saw Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge establish himself as a heavy favorite with an eye-popping season that edged out his 2022 campaign (when he set a new AL record for home runs in a season) in both wRC+ (218) and fWAR (11.2). Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and top-of-the-class free agent Juan Soto had incredible seasons of their own to earn their spots as finalists, but Judge’s .322/.458/.701 slash, 58 home runs, 122 runs scored and 144 runs batted in will be nearly impossible to overcome.

Meanwhile, the NL field was regarded as crowded for most of the season, but Shohei Ohtani began to pull away from the pack late in the year as he became the first player in history to post a 50-50 season and ultimately finished with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases —  all while hitting .310/.390/.646. Assuming Ohtani wins over fellow finalists Francisco Lindor and Ketel Marte (whose case was dinged by a late stint on the injured list), he’ll become the first full-time DH to win the award in MLB history.

2. Are more pre-tender deals on the horizon?

With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, the A’s and first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown got a head start on the type of deal that will surely be seen frequently all across baseball over the next day and a half by avoiding arbitration. “Pre-tender” deals like these often see the player sign at a figure lower than their expected value in arbitration in order to secure a roster spot, knowing the alternative is a non-tender into a crowded free agent pool. Brown, who was outrighted off the A’s roster in June but hit his way back to the majors, agreed to a one-year, $2.7MM deal that fell well shy of the $3.8MM salary projected in MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s algorithm. Several more deals along these lines could unfold between now and tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.

3. Which players are non-tender candidates this year?

Ahead of tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, MLBTR will be publishing a list of potential non-tender candidates later today. While it certainly won’t be the case that every player listed gets non-tendered (and it’s quite unlikely that even most of them will), the list features a broad group of plausible candidates who could be non-tendered given their projected arbitration price and a confluence of factors including their expected production, injury situation, and/or the financial situation of their team. Some players from the list could also look to sign a pre-tender deal with their team or even be traded in advance of the deadline. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at a selection of arb-eligible players who could be trade candidates in the run-up to tomorrow’s deadline in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

MLB Mailbag: Braves, Padres, Red Sox, Rangers, Reds, Rizzo, Buehler

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This week's mailbag gets into Braves, Padres, and Red Sox offseason possibilities, where Anthony Rizzo and Walker Buehler could land, off-the-wall Reds trade ideas, potential Rangers trade partners, and much more.

Bill asks:

What will Atlanta do this offseason with their shortstop, pitching, catching, and outfield needs?

I don't think the Braves will do anything significant at catcher; they might be content to use Chadwick Tromp as Sean Murphy's backup and see how Drake Baldwin comes along.  If they wanted to limit Murphy's playing time, they would've kept Travis d'Arnaud.

In terms of starting pitchers, the Braves have been linked to Walker Buehler, Nick Pivetta, and Nathan Eovaldi so far.  We'll know by Friday whether they tender a contract to Griffin Canning.  I don't love the Pivetta fit, given that he declined a qualifying offer.

12 days ago, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tossed out some of these same names and also speculated on Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Kevin Gausman, and Shane Bieber.  I consider Kikuchi another viable free agent option, as well as Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and a reunion with Charlie Morton.  The Braves could make a play for Garrett Crochet, or try to trade for Fedde, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell, Jesus Luzardo, Luis Castillo, or Jeffrey Springs.  They could sign Jeff Hoffman as a starter, given how well that strategy worked with Reynaldo Lopez.

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