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2025-26 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers failed to score enough runs for the second straight year. After making a few unsuccessful changes around the core last winter, they should be up for a more radical overhaul of the lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • DH Joc Pederson haș $18.5MM player option (deal includes matching mutual option for '27)

2026 guarantees (assuming Pederson opts in): $146.25MM
Total future commitments: $416.25MM through 2031

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Heim, García, Sborz, Haggerty, Burger, Duran

Free Agents

The Rangers followed up their championship season with a 78-84 showing in which they finished 18th in scoring. They signed Joc Pederson and swapped out Nathaniel Lowe for Jake Burger, hoping to add some power and do more damage against fastballs. Neither Pederson nor Burger stepped up, and the Rangers dropped to 22nd in scoring this year. An improved pitching staff pushed them to .500, but they finished with a whimper despite buying at the trade deadline.

Bigger changes are in order. That already began in the manager's office. The Rangers parted ways with Bruce Bochy after three seasons. It took less than a week to hammer out a four-year contract with Skip Schumaker, a former NL Manager of the Year who returns to the dugout after a season working as a special assistant in the Texas front office. Schumaker should be working with a much different lineup than the one that closed Bochy's tenure.

The broad focus is to improve the offensive approach. Only the Rockies, Guardians, Angels and White Sox had a lower on-base percentage. Texas was in the bottom third of MLB in walk rate. At the end-of-season press conference, general manager Ross Fenstermaker said the team could prioritize "stable skills, on-base percentage, the ability to make contact, execute situationally" in their external additions (link via Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News).

Before that can happen, they'll need to move on from a few players. Rowdy Tellez is their only impending free agent hitter of any note, so the significant work will happen via trades and/or non-tenders. They're unlikely to find a taker for Pederson, who'll exercise a $16.5MM player option after hitting .181/.285/.328 during his first season in Texas. It's hard to imagine they'd move Corey Seager, who remains the team's best hitter and whose contract (another six years at $31MM annually) would only work for a couple large-market teams. Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith and Evan Carter should be back as affordable building blocks.

The Rangers might try to get out from under a portion of the Marcus Semien contract. He's owed $72MM over the final three seasons of his seven-year free agent deal. Semien was phenomenal during the World Series season but has tailed off over the past two years. He's coming off a career-worst .230/.305/.364 slash line with 15 homers and ended the year on the injured list with a Lisfranc issue in his left foot.

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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks' pitching staff was battered by injuries, leading to a deadline sell-off of most of their impending free agents. Arizona played surprisingly well in the second half to remain in the Wild Card picture. They came up a little short of a postseason berth, and they're now faced with the task of rebuilding the pitching while navigating an expected payroll cut.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Corbin Burnes, RHP: $170MM through 2030 ($10-11MM deferred annually; Burnes can opt out after '26)
  • Ketel Marte, 2B: $102.5MM through 2031 (Marte can opt out after '30)
  • Corbin Carroll, RF: $102MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $46MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 mutual/vesting option)
  • Geraldo Perdomo, SS: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option; 2028-30 salaries likely to escalate with expected top 10 MVP finish)
  • Brandon Pfaadt, RHP: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF: $18MM player option for 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
  • Justin Martinez, RHP: $14.5MM through 2029 (deal includes club options for 2030-32)

Option Decisions

  • LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has $18MM player option ($13MM salary plus $5MM buyout on '27 club option valued at $14MM)

Additional financial commitment: Owe $100K buyout to released RHP Kendall Graveman

2026 guarantees: $101.1MM
Total future commitments: $543.1MM through 2031

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Vargas, Puk, Thompson, Ginkel, Curtiss, Kyle Nelson, McCarthy

Free Agents

A few hints about the Diamondbacks' winter have already emerged courtesy of owner Ken Kendrick. The team's solid performance after the trade deadline ensured that skipper Torey Lovullo and his coaching staff would be back with as little as one change. The expectation will still be to contend, but the front office will have less payroll room with which to work. Kendrick said that the club plans to reduce spending after pushing the payroll to a franchise-record $187MM Opening Day mark this year (via Cot's Baseball Contracts).

Arizona will have around $100MM in guaranteed commitments once Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is recovering from ACL surgery, inevitably passes on the chance to opt out of the remaining $18MM on his contract. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the arbitration class to come in around $26MM if everyone were tendered a contract. Only Gabriel Moreno, Ryne Nelson, Alek Thomas and probably Pavin Smith feel like locks for that. Ildemaro Vargas, John Curtiss, Kevin Ginkel and Kyle Nelson should all be fairly easy cuts. That leaves a handful of borderline tender decisions.

Whether to bring back A.J. Puk is entirely a health question. He's one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, but he underwent internal brace surgery in June. That's the second UCL procedure of his career. The internal brace usually comes with a lesser recovery timeline than the full Tommy John reconstruction. If the D-Backs expect Puk to return around the All-Star Break, they should pay the $3-4MM which he'd make in arbitration.

If they're projecting more of a 14-15 month timeline that'd raise doubts about his availability for the entire season, a non-tender has to be a consideration. Puk will be a free agent after the '26 campaign, so there's no point tendering him a contract just to rehab. The Snakes could also reach out to Puk's camp before the non-tender deadline to see if they're open to a two-year deal that'd ensure the pitcher gets paid next year while the team gets the upside of a full season in 2027.

Ryan Thompson is coming off a middling season and missed most of the second half with a shoulder strain. He pitched well in September and the Snakes need bullpen help, but a near-$4MM projection feels a bit rich. Meanwhile, Jake McCarthy is coming off a sub-replacement season in which he hit .204/.247/.345 across 222 big league plate appearances. He'll be out of minor league options. McCarthy has had flashes of MLB success and is projected for a sub-$2MM salary, but the Snakes could try to shop him in a sell-low trade. If they don't find any interest, they'll need to decide whether to tender him a contract as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

While the Diamondbacks have a fairly large arbitration class, their deadline sale left them with only three impending free agents. Journeyman reliever Jalen Beeks and backup catcher James McCann each played their roles well enough. The Diamondbacks could get either of them back on a cheap one-year deal. Their biggest potential loss is Zac Gallen, a one-time candidate for a nine figure deal who hits the market after an uneven showing.

Gallen pitched so poorly in the first half that Arizona didn't find a trade offer to their liking. They were comfortable making him a $22.025MM qualifying offer if other clubs didn't meet their asking price. Gallen is still expected to decline the QO coming off a 4.83 ERA over 33 starts. He's represented by the Boras Corporation, which has had success finding two-year deals with an opt-out rather than straight one-year pillow contracts. Gallen, who is going into his age-30 season, is a candidate for that kind of deal.

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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays have a new owner and (hopefully) their old ballpark, as the plan is for a renovated and restored Tropicana Field to be ready for the start of the 2026 season.  Beyond those significant details, it may be an otherwise relatively normal Rays offseason, as the team looks to juggle payroll and churn the roster in the hopes of returning to contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yandy Diaz, 1B: $12MM through 2026 (Rays hold $10MM club option for 2027; becomes guaranteed for $13MM if Diaz has 500 plate appearances in 2026)
  • Drew Rasmussen, SP: $6MM through 2026 (includes $500K buyout of $8MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

  • Pete Fairbanks, RP: $11MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B: $11.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Taylor Walls, SS: $2.45MM club option ($50K buyout; Rays have arbitration control over Walls through 2027 whether they exercise the option or not)

2026 financial commitments (if Fairbanks/Lowe options are exercised): $40MM
Total future commitments (if Fairbanks/Lowe options are exercised): $40.5MM

Other Financial Obligations

  • Wander Franco, SS: Owed $164MM through 2032, but isn't being paid while on MLB's restricted list.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Matt Silverman and Brian Auld have stepped down from their longtime roles as Rays co-presidents, and some other internal changes are inevitable now that Patrick Zalupski's ownership group has taken the reins.  However, the changes won't extend to president of baseball ops Erik Neander, with Zalupski making a point of stating during his introductory press conference that his group has a "self-imposed rule" that "none of us, and none of the partners, are allowed to talk to or have any influence on baseball operations."

The chief short-term goal for Zalupski's group is to finally secure a new ballpark in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, with the lofty aim of having this new stadium in place for the start of the 2029 season.  It seems like a lot to achieve in less than three and a half years' time, but the bottom line is familiar for Rays fans --- the player payroll doesn't seem likely to change until that new stadium is in place, and new revenues start flowing.

Assuming that the Trop's renovations are completed on schedule, returning to their former ballpark at least represents some relief for the Rays after a season spent at Steinbrenner Field.  The adjustment to suddenly playing home games in a minor league park, and playing outdoors in the tough Florida weather, seemed to take its toll on the Rays as the 2025 campaign rolled along.  Tampa Bay was 47-36 on June 28 and in the thick of the AL East race, but stumbled to a 30-49 record the rest of the way.

Since the Rays were also 80-82 in 2024, this season's subpar record can't be entirely written off as a creation of Steinbrenner Field.  The magic formula hasn't entirely worked for Neander and company in the last two years, even if the Rays have remained quasi-competitive.  This could mean that Tampa Bay might not be far away from a full-fledged return to contention, since a lot still went right for the team in 2025.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The Reinsdorf era may be drawing to a close.  With clean books and many unsettled positions, do the White Sox have any bold offseason moves up their sleeve?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Luis Robert Jr., CF: $20MM club option ($2MM buyout); deal includes $20MM club option for 2027
  • Martin Perez, SP: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)

Total 2026 commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $38MM
Total long-term commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $52.5MM through 2027

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Wilson, Hill

Free Agents

In last year's Offseason Outlook, we briefly touched on the bigger-picture questions of who will own the White Sox long-term and where they will play in 2030.  One of those questions has likely been answered.  In June of this year, the team announced that "Jerry Reinsdorf and Justin Ishbia have reached a long-term investment agreement that establishes a framework for Ishbia to obtain a future controlling interest in the White Sox," adding that "Ishbia will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."

That's the headline, but the details are crucial:

"The agreement provides that, from 2029–33, Reinsdorf will have the option to sell the controlling interest to Ishbia. After the 2034 season, Ishbia will have the option to acquire the controlling interest. In the event of any such future transaction, all limited partners of the Sox would have the opportunity to sell to Ishbia at that time. In addition to Justin Ishbia, his brother Mat Ishbia, and father Jeff Ishbia will also be significant investors. There is no assurance that any such future transaction will occur, and in no event will such a transaction take place before 2029."

If you've got 20 minutes to spare, check out this discussion between Alex Maragos of NBC 5 Chicago and Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, who has done a lot of reporting on this planned transfer of ownership.  You'll hear the word "transformative" thrown around, but there's no reason to expect a significant player payroll increase in the near future.  White Sox fans have a new sense of hope about the future of the franchise, but for the 2025-26 offseason, we don't expect much of an Ishbia effect.

The 2025 White Sox were just normal bad, rather than historically bad.  It was the team's third consecutive 100-loss season, with a 60-102 record.  The White Sox ranked 14th in the AL with 3.99 runs scored per game.  The starting rotation ranked 11th with a 4.39 ERA, while the bullpen checked in at 10th with a 4.16 mark.  The defense seemed to be bottom-five in the league.

Despite that, positives are emerging.  The White Sox have established a Kyle Teel-Edgar Quero job-share at catcher.  Teel came up in June and posted 1.9 fWAR in 78 games, including a 125 wRC+ at the plate that ranked sixth among all catchers.  Shortstop Colson Montgomery came up in July and slugged at a level well beyond anything he'd done at Triple-A: a 129 wRC+ with 21 home runs in just 284 plate appearances.

On the pitching side, GM Chris Getz snagged Shane Smith from the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft last winter, and he remarkably became the team's All-Star representative.  The righty, 26 in April, faltered in the middle of the summer but posted a 3.09 ERA and 27.1 K% over his final ten starts.

First base was a bit of a black eye.  The White Sox justifiably gave up on former third overall pick Andrew Vaughn, optioning him to Triple-A in May and sending him to the Brewers for pitcher Aaron Civale in mid-June.  The Brewers brought Vaughn up a few weeks later and he put up a surprising and robust 142 wRC+ in 254 plate appearances, plus a couple of key home runs in the Division Series against the Cubs.

The White Sox never really settled on a first baseman after moving on from Vaughn, with guys like Tim Elko, Ryan Noda, and trade deadline pickup Curtis Mead getting looks.  The majority of starts went to Miguel Vargas, who also played a bunch of third base.  Vargas flashed signs of life in May and August, but overall his 101 wRC+ doesn't really play for a starter at an infield corner.  So what can be done?

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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals hoped the 2025 season would represent a step forward in their rebuild, but the opposite took place. The results were discouraging enough that ownership fired not only manager Davey Martinez but longtime president/general manager Mike Rizzo, who'd run the team's baseball operations for nearly two decades. A new front office regime will try to turn things around for a club that won more games in 2024 (71) than in 2025 (66).

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2026 commitments: $49MM
Total long-term commitments: $79MM through 2030

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

Non-tender candidates: Alfaro, Garcia, Thompson, Adams

Free Agents

The Nationals' summer ousting of Rizzo kicked off an executive search while longtime Rizzo lieutenant Mike DeBartolo ran baseball operations through the trade deadline and the end of the season. Washington spoke with executives from multiple clubs and ultimately settled on Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni to head up the organization. Because he was in the running to be promoted to Red Sox general manager under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, Toboni was hired with the title president of baseball operations. The Nats could hire a GM to work underneath him at some point, but it wasn't framed as an immediate priority at Toboni's introductory press conference.

Changes in the front office have already begun. The Nats will retain DeBartolo in a yet-to-be-announced role, but assistant GMs Eddie Longosz and Mark Scialabba are set to depart the organization amid further changes in the scouting department. Even if Toboni doesn't immediately add a general manager, it seems likely that he'll bring on some new hires to take over some of the AGM and scouting responsibilities (particularly if DeBartolo is moved to a role other than assistant general manager).

The Nats will also need to hire a new skipper. Interim manager Miguel Cairo is a candidate in the team's ongoing search, Toboni indicated this week, but the Nationals are also in the process of interviewing candidates from outside the organization. Washington is one of an incredible seven teams looking for a new manager and one of an even more remarkable nine clubs that will have a different manager on Opening Day 2026 than on Opening Day 2025.

Of course, beyond the broader changes at the highest levels of the organization, fans are more concerned with what the offseason will look like under the new regime. Toboni naturally didn't delve into specifics at his introduction. He spoke in general terms, repeatedly mentioning the desire to build a "scouting and player development monster" that eventually stands as the envy of the industry.

Even more pressing, however, is what the future holds for some of the organization's key young players. While emerging outfielders like James Wood and Daylen Lile are controlled for another five-plus seasons, many of the team's other most important contributors are already halfway -- or more -- through their original level of club control. That'll put Toboni in an interesting spot this winter as he looks to determine whether some of his core players are building blocks or whether they're best used as trade currency to further stock a farm system that, even after picking No. 1 overall in July and trading several players at the 2025 deadline, ranked 21st in the majors at Baseball America and 23rd at MLB.com.

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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds made the postseason in a 162-game schedule for the first time in 12 years. They looked overmatched against the Dodgers and were swept out of the Wild Card Series. This year was a nice stepping stone, but the Reds need to add a couple bats to pull alongside the true best teams in the National League.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $41MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $36MM through 2029 (including buyout of '30 club option)
  • Jose Trevino, C: $11.25MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 club option)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • Team, OF Austin Hays hold $12MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
  • Team holds $6.5MM option on RHP Scott Barlow ($1MM buyout)
  • Team holds $3MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($250K buyout)

2026 financial commitments: $37.5MM
Total future commitments: $105.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Lux, Espinal, Gibaut, Moll, Benson

Free Agents

The Reds ranked 14th in MLB with 4.42 runs per game. That's an underwhelming mark for a team that plays in one of the league's most favorable hitter's parks. They'll need to improve upon a .245/.315/.391 batting line. The offense should be the offseason priority, but their first couple decisions are in the bullpen.

Cincinnati holds options on relievers Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. It's an easy call to move on from Barlow, who'll receive a $1MM buyout. They'll probably also opt for a $250K buyout on Suter, as the Cincinnati native struggled to a 7.36 ERA after the All-Star Break. Closer Emilio Pagán hits the market following one of the best seasons of his career. Nick Martinez will again be a free agent after playing this year on a $21.05MM qualifying offer salary.

If Pagán walks, the Reds could be in the market for a closer. They're not going to spend at the level it'd take to bring in Edwin Díaz, nor does a splash for Robert Suarez seem advisable given their needs on offense. Old friend Raisel Iglesias will be available on a one or two-year deal at age 36, though he pitched well enough with Atlanta to command an eight-figure salary. Kenley Jansen will sign a decent one-year deal, while Ryan Helsley and Michael Kopech are probably looking for pillow contracts. Devin Williams, Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, Kyle Finnegan and Pagán himself should all be looking at multi-year contracts -- though it'd be a surprise if Pagán commands more than two guaranteed years entering his age-35 season.

Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips are Cincy's top returning leverage arms. Santillan has a little bit of closing experience, while Phillips has shown wipeout stuff with hit-or-miss command. If the Reds find the prices too high on free agent closers, perhaps they'll let Santillan and Phillips compete for the ninth inning while pursuing a setup type like Tyler Rogers or Phil Maton. In any case, they should bring in at least one back-end arm.

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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals officially have a new head of baseball operations for the first time in nearly two decades. As announced at the beginning of last offseason, longtime president of baseball ops John Mozeliak has stepped aside and passed the torch to former Rays and Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom, who'd previously been a senior advisor with the Cardinals. Bloom's end-of-season press conference spelled out what had already become abundantly clear over the past 12 months: this will be an offseason unlike any the Cardinals have experienced in recent memory -- the onset of what's likely to be a yearslong rebuild.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $42MM through 2027 (Rockies paying $5MM)
  • Willson Contreras, 1B: $41MM through 2027 (includes buyout of 2028 club option)
  • Sonny Gray, RHP: $40MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)

2026 guarantees: $75MM
Total long-term guarantees: $117.5MM through 2027

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Alcala, King

Free Agents

For the early portion of last offseason, it seemed quite possible that the Cardinals would embark on the very type of rebuild that now seems far likelier. Instead, no-trade clauses in the contracts of veterans Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras threw a wrench into those plans. Gray and Contreras seemed unfazed by the idea of a youth movement and quickly let the team know they were content to remain in St. Louis. Arenado was open to trade scenarios but to a limited number of clubs. He wound up vetoing a trade to the Astros and remaining in St. Louis.

This time around, it seems overwhelmingly likely that at least one of those veterans will change hands. Gray candidly said after his final start that he has to consider trade scenarios this winter after talking to Bloom about the direction of the team. Contreras has said his preference is still to remain in St. Louis but he'll consider waiving his no-trade protection in the right scenario. Arenado has voiced his intent to be more open to a wider array of teams this time around.

That said, there are prominent hurdles when it comes to trading everyone from the group, and there's ample reason to wonder just how much -- if anything at all -- the Cardinals can get back in return for any of those pricey veterans. They're reportedly open to paying down some of the remaining salary (which will be a necessity), but if they really want to extract meaningful prospect value, there are more notable trade avenues to explore.

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Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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An 82-80 record is nothing to sneeze at in Kansas City, as it represented just the sixth time in the last 31 years that the Royals topped the .500 mark.  Still, the Royals took a step back after reaching the playoffs in 2024, and will again be looking to bolster their lackluster offense.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $272MM through 2034 (Witt can opt out after each of the final four years of the contract; Royals can trigger $89MM club option for 2035-37 seasons if Witt triggers all player options)
  • Seth Lugo, SP: $43MM through 2027 (includes $3MM buyout of $17MM club/vesting option for 2028)
  • Michael Wacha, SP: $33MM through 2027 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2028)
  • Carlos Estevez, RP: $12MM through 2026 (includes $2M buyout of $13MM club option for 2027)
  • Cole Ragans, SP: $12MM through 2027 (Royals hold arbitration control over Ragans for 2028 season)

Option Decisions

2026 financial commitments (assuming only Perez's option is exercised): $79MM
Total future commitments (assuming only Perez's option is exercised): $385.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Royals got an early jump on their offseason work when they agreed to a contract extension with Seth Lugo just before the trade deadline.  Lugo's previous deal allowed him to opt out of the contract's final year and enter free agency this winter, and the Royals seemed to at least test the trade market just in case an extension couldn't be finalized.  As it turned out, the veteran righty will now be staying in K.C. through at least the 2027 campaign, further solidifying the Royals' starting corps.

The rotation was more good than elite this season, as injuries played a role.  Lugo himself missed about a month and a half due to back and finger issues, Kris Bubic's All-Star season was ended by a rotator cuff strain in late July, and 2024 All-Star Cole Ragans was limited to 13 starts and 61 2/3 innings due to a rotator cuff strain of his own.  The silver lining to these health issues was that Noah Cameron got the opportunity to break into the rotation, as the rookie delivered a 2.99 ERA over his first 138 1/3 frames in the majors.

Better health is obviously no guarantee for 2026, yet assuming the Royals deal with just an average amount of injury misfortune, their rotation looks like one of the more solid on-paper units in baseball.  The Royals have fewer questions about their starting pitching than most clubs, due to both a high talent floor and plenty of depth.  Mutual options are almost always declined anyway, but Michael Lorenzen probably would've been moving on regardless considering all of the other pitching options on hand.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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A record $340MM payroll couldn't even guarantee the Mets a playoff spot, as the Reds edged New York out of a wild card berth via tiebreaker on the final day of the regular season.  The near-miss was the final insult after a disastrous second half, leaving the Amazins with plenty of roster decisions and perhaps some bigger-picture questions to answer during what is sure to be a busy offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Juan Soto, OF: $643.125MM through 2039 (player opt-out after 2029 season, but Mets can override opt-out by adding $40MM to final 10 years of contract)
  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $192MM through 2031 ($5MM deferred annually)
  • Brandon Nimmo, OF: $101.25MM through 2030
  • Sean Manaea, SP: $50MM through 2027 ($7.75MM deferred annually)
  • Kodai Senga, SP: $42MM through 2027 (Mets receive $15MM club option for 2028 if Senga misses at least 130 consecutive days due to elbow injury/Tommy John surgery)
  • Clay Holmes, SP: $25MM through 2027 (Holmes can opt out after 2026 season)
  • Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $2M buyout of $15.75MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

  • Edwin Diaz, RP: $18.5MM player options for 2026 and 2027 seasons (Diaz must decide on both options this offseason; if he remains, Mets hold $17.25MM club option for 2028 season with $1MM buyout)
  • Pete Alonso, 1B: $24MM player option for 2026 (Alonso has already stated he is opting out)
  • Frankie Montas, SP: $17MM player option for 2026
  • A.J. Minter, RP: $11M player option for 2026
  • Brooks Raley, RP: $4.75MM club option for 2026 ($750K buyout)
  • Drew Smith, RP: $2MM club option for 2026

2026 financial commitments (assuming Diaz and Alonso opt out): $201.625MM
Total future commitments (assuming Diaz and Alonso opt out): $1,105,875,000

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

In almost a direct inverse of their magical 2024 season, the 2025 Mets looked like arguably baseball's best team over the first two and a half months before the bottom fell out.  The club was 45-24 at the end of play on June 12, but Friday, June 13 ended up being the start of a Citi Field horror movie --- New York posted just a 38-55 record the rest of the way, leading to increased panic in Queens as it became apparent that the season was slipping away.

Several coaches are already on the way out, including pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and hitting coaches Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes.  But, manager Carlos Mendoza is staying, and president of baseball operations David Stearns isn't being fired two seasons into his tenure after owner Steve Cohen pursued Stearns for years.  Cohen has already issued a public apology for how the Mets' season ended, and it remains to be seen how the owner will react in the face of such a disappointing result.

If you're assuming the reaction will be "Cohen spends another fortune in free agency," that can't be ruled out.  Last winter's record-breaking Juan Soto contract notwithstanding, Stearns' usual strategy in free agency is to aim for shorter-term and relatively less expensive deals on the open market.  This approach simply didn't work in 2025, and during his wrap-up press conference earlier this week, Stearns took responsibility for not doing enough to reinforce his pitching staff either last winter or during the season when the rotation fell apart.

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins rode a big September winning streak to the fringes of the Wild Card race and weren't mathematically eliminated from the postseason until Sept. 25. They have very little money on the books for the 2026 season and saw some key young players step up as potential building blocks. The front office, led by president of baseball operations Peter Bendix as he enters his third winter on the job, will now need to determine how real that surge was and how strongly to pursue win-now moves for next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $19MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout of $21MM club option for 2027)

Additional Financial Commitments

  • $10MM annually to Yankees, through 2028, as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
  • $5MM buyout on 2026 club option for since-released OF Avisail Garcia
  • $500K buyout on 2026 mutual option for since-released RHP Woo-Suk Go

Option Decisions

  • None

Total 2026 commitments: $32.5MM
Total future commitments: $54.5MM through 2028

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Nardi

Free Agents

  • None

Bendix offered little insight into his club's direction during his end-of-season press conference. The former Rays general manager noted that he was both proud of his club's strong finish to the season but disappointed to be talking to the media when other clubs were still playing. Bendix spoke in typical baseball operations generalities, deflecting questions about his expected level of aggression this offseason to merely say he hoped to build a team that was as good as it could possibly be for as long as it could possibly be. Asked whether fans should expect Sandy Alcantara to be a Marlin by the time spring training rolls around, he sidestepped and stressed the importance of being open-minded to any and all scenarios (link via Isaac Azout of Fish On First).

None of that is meant as a critique of Miami's president, to be clear. The simple reality of running a low-payroll club and trying to navigate some degree of rebuild is that hard decisions will have to be made and that payroll concerns will persist each year. It's unlikely that the Marlins will cannonball into the deep end of free agency this winter, but there's plenty of reason to believe that they could also be a bit more active than they've been in recent offseasons.

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