The Mets are working to finalize a two-year, $22MM deal with free agent reliever Luke Weaver, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The deal is pending a physical. Weaver is repped by the Ballengee Group.
More to come.
The Best Fits For Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami will make his decision within the next five days. Japan's premier slugger is expected to sign with an MLB team after being posted by the Yakult Swallows. The 45-day process began on November 8, meaning Murakami has until December 22 to put pen to paper.
Murakami's camp has played things very close to the vest. While they've undoubtedly spent the past month speaking with teams, there hasn't been any reporting about which clubs are involved. It's inherently more difficult from the outside to project the market for players without any major league track record. A lot depends on individual teams' scouting evaluations.
That's particularly true in Murakami's case. Scouts are unanimous in praising his monster power potential. The lefty hitter drilled 56 home runs in his age-22 season a few years back. That's an outlier but he has another four seasons with between 31 and 39 longballs. That doesn't include this year, in which oblique injuries limited him to 69 games. Murakami connected on 24 homers while hitting .286/.392/.659 across 263 plate appearances -- which would have put him on a 55-60 homer pace over a full season. His exit velocities are off the charts. There's a chance he's in the Kyle Schwarber or Shohei Ohtani tier in terms of left-handed raw power.
As is often the case, the bigger question is whether he'll make enough contact to be an impact bat in MLB. Murakami has fanned a near-26% rate in his NPB career. That was up to 28.6% this year and closer to 30% in his last full season in 2024. Hitters can thrive while striking out that often -- Schwarber has gone down on strikes at a 28.8% rate over the last four years -- but Murakami's strikeout rate seems likely to climb against big league competition.
The average pitcher quality and velocity is higher in MLB than it is at the NPB level. Should Murakami be expected to strike out more than 30% of the time in the majors? Do teams expect him to punch out more than a third of the time? Scouts could have differing evaluations on Murakami's pure hitting ability.
There's little doubt that the bat needs to drive the profile. Listed at 6'2" and 213 pounds, Murakami isn't viewed as an especially rangy third baseman. He's likely to end up at first base before the end of his contract. Some teams might project him to the position on day one. Others could feel he'd be a passable third baseman in the short term, but his defense isn't likely to improve with age.
Murakami turns 26 in February. He's younger than essentially any top-tier domestic free agent, who'd need to play six full seasons in the big leagues before they can hit the market. This is a chance to add a potential prime-age superstar, but there's also massive downside given the swing-and-miss and defensive questions. It's likely that whatever deal he signs will come with one or more opt-out chances that allow Murakami to get back to free agency a few years from now if he has proven he can hit MLB pitching.
MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $180MM deal in ranking him the offseason's #4 free agent. That's admittedly without a huge amount of confidence given the challenges of projecting this profile. Let's take a look at which teams are best positioned to make this move.
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Phillies To Sign Brad Keller
The Phillies and right-handed reliever Brad Keller are in agreement on a two-year, $22MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The deal is pending a physical. Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two parties were nearing an agreement. Keller is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Keller, 30, was a solid starter with the Royals early in his career after being picked up from the D-backs in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. After a nice run of three seasons, his numbers took a sharp decline, due largely to the complete erosion of his command. After walking 45 batters in 45 1/3 innings in 2023, Keller was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. A comeback effort in 2024 didn’t pan out well, as he pitched to a 5.44 ERA in 41 1/3 frames between the Red Sox and White Sox, but Keller completely remade himself as a high-end bullpen weapon with the Cubs in 2025 after signing a minor league contract.
In 69 2/3 innings this past season, Keller was dominant. His 2.07 ERA tied him for 13th-best among 147 qualified relievers. The 6’5″, 255-pound righty set down 27.2% of his opponents on strikes and notched a sharp 8% walk rate. Keller had sat 92-94 mph as a starter and even in bullpen work with the White Sox and Red Sox in ’24, but his sinker averaged a career-best 96.7 mph in 2025 and his four-seamer clocked in even higher at 97.2 mph. His 56.1% ground-ball rate was a career-best mark, and opponents had an extremely rough time squaring up any of his pitches. His 86.7 mph average exit velocity and 30.6% hard-hit rate were far and away the lowest marks of his career.
More to come.
Twins Introduce New Minority Owners; Tom Pohlad Named Team’s New Control Person
Several months after the Pohlad family reversed course on its bid to sell the Twins, instead revealing the forthcoming addition of new minority owners, the Twins have formally announced a trio of new minority stakeholders in the organization — all of whom have been formally approved by Major League Baseball. Craig Leipold, owner of the NHL’s Minnesota Wild; George G. Hicks, founder of Minnesota-based investment firm Varde Partners; and Glick Family Investors are the team’s new limited partners.
The Pohlad family will retain majority ownership of the Twins, but there’s still changes on that front. Joe Pohlad, the team’s executive chair, is ceding oversight of the organization to older brother Tom Pohlad. Per the Twins’ press release, Tom will oversee the organization’s operations and will also succeed his uncle, Jim Pohlad, as the team’s official control person and liaison to the league.
Joe Pohlad had only taken over the executive chair role and day-to-day oversight of the franchise in November of 2022. He called his short time as the team’s executive chair “one of the greatest responsibilities and privileges of my life” before adding that he is “stepping away from my day-to-day role.”
Details of the sale weren’t disclosed by the team, but Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Pohlad family sold more than 20% of the franchise at a valuation of $1.75 billion. The addition of the new minority stakeholders has helped to substantially clear a reported debt of nearly $500MM. Wiping that debt clean could aid the Pohlad family in any subsequent efforts to sell the franchise down the road. It’s not clear at this time whether the family will eventually revisit the idea of selling the team, however.
More to come.
MLBTR Podcast: The Mets Sign Jorge Polanco, And The Braves, Blue Jays And Royals Make Moves
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Mets signing Jorge Polanco (2:40)
- The Braves making three signings: Robert Suarez, Mike Yastrzemski and Ha-Seong Kim (17:15)
- The Blue Jays signing Tyler Rogers and Cody Ponce (31:40)
- The Royals extending Maikel Garcia, signing Lane Thomas and trading Ángel Zerpa to the Brewers for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears (46:10)
- The Tigers making three signings: Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan and Drew Anderson (57:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
- An Agent’s Perspective with B.B. Abbott – Also, Cease, Williams, Helsley, And Gray – listen here
- Some “Classic Baseball Trades,” Nimmo For Semien, And Ward For Rodriguez – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images
Cubs To Re-Sign Caleb Thielbar
Dec. 17: Thielbar is guaranteed $4.5MM on the contract, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. That breaks down as a $4MM salary and a $500K buyout on a 2027 mutual option. There are also incentives in the deal that can boost his 2026 earnings.
Dec. 16: The Cubs are re-signing veteran left-handed reliever Caleb Thielbar, per Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan of ESPN. The agreement between the two parties is still pending the completion of a physical. Thielbar is represented by ISE Baseball.
Thielbar, 39 in January, spent his entire big league career prior to the 2025 season with his hometown Twins. He signed a one-year, $2.75MM contract coming off a down showing in his final year with Minnesota and bounced back in a major way with Chicago.
In 58 innings this past season, the South Dakota State product notched a sharp 2.64 earned run average and 25 holds — the latter tying him with Brad Keller (also a free agent this winter) for the team lead. Thielbar struck out 25.5% of his opponents, limited walks at an excellent 5.9% clip, and kept 40.7% of the batted balls against him on the ground (a career-high mark). He tacked on another 3 2/3 scoreless frames in the postseason.
While he doesn’t throw particularly hard (92.8 mph average fastball in ’25), Thielbar still managed to post a roughly average swinging-strike rate and an above-average strikeout rate thanks to dominant performances from his curveball and slider alike. Opponents hit just .135 and slugged .231 against the former while batting .169 and slugging .254 versus the latter. Thielbar dominated left-handed hitters (.161/.211/.276) and right-handed hitters (.205/.248/.342) alike during his lone season with the Cubs.
Thielbar is the third free-agent addition to the Cubs’ bullpen this winter, joining fellow southpaw Hoby Milner (one year, $3.75MM) and right-hander Phil Maton (two years, $14.5MM). Thielbar and Milner give manager Craig Counsell a pair of experienced southpaws, both of whom he’s previously managed, and create the potential for a trio of southpaws, should Luke Little also make the club. Thielbar, Milner and Maton will combine to help bridge the gap between the rotation and young closer Daniel Palencia.
There’s still room for Chicago to make further additions to the bullpen, which has at least three spots earmarked for relatively untested arms. Each of their bullpen pickups thus far has also been relatively low-cost in nature, leaving room for a significant addition elsewhere on the roster. The Cubs have been at least loosely tied to top free agents like Ranger Suarez, Tatsuya Imai, Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez, among others.
Giants, Gregory Santos Agree To Minor League Deal
The Giants have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Gregory Santos, as first reported by Mike Rodriguez. He’ll be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee next spring.
The 26-year-old Santos returns to the club with which he made his major league debut back in 2021. While he originally signed with the Red Sox as a teenager back in 2016, Santos was flipped to the Giants organization a year later as part of the team’s return for infielder Eduardo Nuñez. Santos spent four-plus seasons in the Giants’ system before making brief appearances in the majors in both 2021 and 2022. He wound up pitching only 5 2/3 innings as a Giant before being traded again — this time to the White Sox in exchange for minor league righty Kade McClure.
Santos was a key late-inning arm for the Sox in 2023, totaling a career-high 66 1/3 innings with a 3.39 earned run average, five saves and six holds. He fanned a solid 22.8% of his opponents, walked just 5.9% of the batters he faced and kept a hearty 52.8% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground — all while averaging a blazing 98.9 mph on his sinker.
Santos spent only one season with the South Siders, who sold high and flipped him to the Mariners in exchange for a pair of prospects (outfielder Zach DeLoach and righty Prelander Berroa) as well as a Competitive Balance draft pick (used to select high school lefty Blake Larson). Santos spent parts of two seasons with the Mariners but only tallied 14 1/3 innings in the majors, as injuries repeatedly shelved him for extended periods of time. A significant lat strain, biceps inflammation and knee surgery combined to just 26 2/3 innings total — majors and minors combined — during his two seasons with the M’s, who non-tendered Santos last month.
If Santos is back to full health this spring, he’s a nice flier with a bit of upside to add to the bullpen competition. He won’t turn 27 until next August and was still sitting 98 mph with his sinker this past season, even amid the ongoing injury woes. Santos doesn’t miss bats at a plus level like one might expect from someone with his huge velocity, but he’s shown the ability to limit walks and rack up grounders at a high clip. If he’s added to the big league roster at any point, Santos still has a minor league option remaining and is under club control via arbitration for at least three more seasons.
The Opener: Giants, Lefty Relievers, Posting Windows
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Giants 40-man roster moves incoming:
The Giants signed right-handers Adrian Houser and Jason Foley to major league deals yesterday, and in doing so created in a logjam on their 40-man roster. San Francisco’s roster was already at capacity before those signings, so they’ll need to make a pair of corresponding moves in order to finalize those additions. Those transactions could be simply designating two other players for assignment, but it’s also possible that the Giants could look to work out a trade of some kind that clears 40-man roster space.
2. Market for lefties heating up:
While the bullpen market has been buzzing virtually the entire offseason, the market for specifically left-handed relief pitching had been a bit quieter until recently. As of early last week, Gregory Soto was most notable lefty to sign, but that dam has broken. Hoby Milner and Tyler Alexander signed late last week, and things picked up further yesterday with a trio of agreements: Caleb Thielbar returned to the Cubs after a strong rebound season, Drew Pomeranz signed with the Angels, and the Reds landed Caleb Ferguson. With that group off the board, the most notable lefties still on the market include Sean Newcomb, Taylor Rogers, Justin Wilson and Danny Coulombe.
3. Posting windows for Song, Murakami nearing their end:
When international players are posted for MLB teams, they’re given a limited window during which to sign. That window lasts 30 days for players coming over from the KBO, while NPB players have 45 days. Two such players are having their windows draw to a close in the next few days: KBO infielder Sung Mun Song, who will need to sign by December 21 at 4pm CT, and NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami, who will need to sign by December 22 at 4pm CT.
Murakami is by far the more well-known player, heralded for his youth and prodigious power despite concerns about his contact ability. He should land a healthy multi-year deal in free agency, though his camp has kept things very quiet to this point. Song hasn’t garnered as much fanfare but is coming off a pair of terrific seasons, wherein he combined to his .327/.397/.524 with a 10.5% walk rate and just a 14.3% strikeout rate.
Giants To Sign Adrian Houser
The Giants and righty Adrian Houser are in agreement on a two-year, $22MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. There’s a club option for a third season. Houser, a client of the BBI Sports Group, will presumably step right into San Francisco’s rotation next season after a rebound showing in 2025. The Giants, who also announced a one-year deal with former Tigers closer Jason Foley less than an hour ago, will need to free up a pair of 40-man roster spots, as they were already at capacity prior to either of those two agreements.
Houser, who’ll turn 33 in February, was a steady presence in the Milwaukee rotation for several years. From 2021-23, Houser started 68 games for the Brewers (in addition to five relief outings) and logged a 3.94 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate were both worse than average, but Houser piled up grounders at a 51.3% rate and managed to consistently avoid the long ball (0.83 HR/9).
The Brewers traded Houser to the Mets in the 2023-24 offseason, ahead of what was set to be his final season of club control. He struggled through his lone year in Queens (5.84 ERA in seven starts and 16 relief outings) before being designated for assignment and cut loose. He wound up settling for a minor league contract with the Rangers in free agency last winter. Texas didn’t bring him up to the big leagues prior to an opt-out date, so Houser returned to the market and signed a big league deal with the White Sox — a decision that now stands as a turning point in his career.
Houser hit the ground running and never looked back. In 11 starts with the ChiSox, he pitched 68 2/3 innings of 2.10 ERA ball. As was the case in Milwaukee, Houser posted a strikeout rate well shy of the 22% league average (17.1%), but he did so with better command (8% walk rate) and even fewer round-trippers (0.39 HR/9). Houser’s home run suppression didn’t seem sustainable; only 4.6% of the fly-balls he surrendered with the Sox turned into homers — miles south of the league-average 11.9% mark and his own career mark of 11.5%.
Following a trade to Tampa Bay, Houser indeed saw his home run luck run out. His homer-to-flyball rate jumped to 11.9%, and he averaged 1.12 homers per nine frames. The resulting 4.79 ERA was pretty closely in line with his 4.62 SIERA with Chicago. Still, Houser proved a durable source of innings down the stretch for the Rays, pitching 56 1/3 frames across 10 starts. Overall, he finished out the season with a 3.31 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 48.9% ground-ball rate and 0.73 HR/9.
Houser will slot into new skipper Tony Vitello’s rotation behind Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp. The Giants have a host of candidates for the fifth and final spot on the staff, including (but not limited to) Blade Tidwell, Carson Seymour, Kai-Wei Teng, Trevor McDonald, Hayden Birdsong and well-regarded prospect Carson Whisenhunt.
The Giants have been on the hunt for rotation help this winter, and while they’ve been connected to some of the more prominent names on the market, ownership has publicly expressed a reluctance to commit long-term to a starting pitcher. That’s made fits with pitchers like Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez seem unlikely, though it’s at least plausible that the Giants could look to further augment their starting staff via the trade market or another shorter-term deal such as today’s Houser agreement.
Given Houser’s inconsistent track record, lack of missed bats and generally unsustainable level of home run suppression with the White Sox, it’s a fairly steep price for the Giants to pay. Then again, San Francisco’s Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the sport. Oracle Park is particularly tough on left-handed home run power, which dovetails nicely with Houser’s skill set. He held right-handers to an awful .249/.293/.320 batting line in 2025 (.234/.296/.339 career) but was tagged by lefties for a .274/.356/.456 batting line last season (and .282/.367/.456 for his career).
The addition of Houser pushes San Francisco to about $203MM of luxury tax obligations, per RosterResource. The Giants are more than $40MM shy of the $244MM first-tier threshold. However, while they’ve paid the tax in the past — doing so as recently as 2024 — it’s not clear whether they’re comfortable doing so in 2026. Ownership comments downplaying the possibility of adding additional long-term deals would suggest at least some trepidation about spending to those heights.
The Giants are still looking for help in the outfield, at second base and/or in the bullpen. While the top-end free agents to whom they were loosely linked earlier in free agency (e.g. Imai, Valdez) don’t seem like realistic targets, barring an about-face from ownership on the team’s stance regarding long-term commitments, there are still various avenues to pursue. Free agency offers no shortage of veteran hitters and relievers available on short-term deals, and San Francisco is reportedly among the teams most aggressively pursuing Cardinals infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan.
President of baseball operations Buster Posey presumably has several more moves up his sleeve, and while the addition of Houser doesn’t necessarily raise the team’s ceiling much, it does boost the floor of a rotation that was pretty rife with question marks beyond the veteran Webb/Ray tandem up top.
Steven Matz To Compete For Rotation Spot With Rays
The Rays finalized their two-year, $15MM deal with Steven Matz on Tuesday afternoon. The veteran lefty came out of the bullpen for all but two of his 53 appearances this past season, but he’ll have a chance to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training.
“There’s a real desire on his end to want to start and give that a real shot again, despite his success last year out of the bullpen, and we just believe that he has the the ability to do it,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander told Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times. “So we’re going to give him the opportunity to prepare as a starter, to come in and try to lock down a day.”
Matz signed as a starter with St. Louis over the 2021-22 offseason. He battled injuries in each of the first three seasons of that four-year contract. He suffered a shoulder impingement and a knee sprain in ’22. A lat strain shelved him the following season, while it was his back that proved problematic in 2024. The stop-and-start seasons and inconsistent production quickly pushed him into a swing role. Matz wound up making just 35 starts — compared to 48 relief outings — over three and a half seasons with the Cardinals. He pitched to a 4.68 ERA despite solid strikeout (22.6%) and walk (6.4%) rates out of the rotation. The Red Sox used him in short relief after picking him up at last summer’s trade deadline.
The 34-year-old Matz held up as a starter earlier in his career. He topped 150 innings each full season between 2018-21. He allowed around four earned runs per nine in each year, generally performing at a league average level. Matz still has plus command and hasn’t much changed his repertoire even when pitching in shorter stints. He leans most heavily on a 94 MPH sinker while mixing in a curveball and a changeup, the latter pitch almost exclusively against right-handed batters. Righties have posted a .276/.322/.446 line over the past four seasons, while he has held same-handed opponents to a .225/.280/.339 mark.
At the moment, Matz projects as the fifth starter behind Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz. Virtually none of that is set in stone. Rasmussen is a top-of-the-rotation caliber starter but has a lengthy injury history. McClanahan hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in two seasons. Pepiot and Baz have come up in trade rumors. The former has only been mentioned in the context of a potential Ketel Marte blockbuster, but the Rays could be more open to a change-of-scenery deal on Baz given his inconsistency. It’s possible the Rays acquire another starter via trade or free agency. Second-year lefty Ian Seymour would be Matz’s top competition for a rotation spot if they don’t make any further moves.
