The non-tender deadline is Friday evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.
As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Some of those players have already been dropped from the roster. A few of the most obvious cuts were dropped within the first five days of the offseason as teams needed to get their offseason roster counts back to 40 without the benefit of the injured list.
Some more were designated for assignment on Tuesday as teams opened space for prospects whom they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. Those players remain in DFA limbo and are marked below with an asterisk. There’s still a scenario in which they’re tendered a contract. The club that DFA them could trade them before Friday to a team that is fine with the projected arbitration price and keeps them around. While that might happen for a player or two, the vast majority of them will just be non-tendered.
Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (A’s catcher Austin Wynns has already taken this kind of deal.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.
The collective bargaining agreement incentivizes borderline roster players to settle without a hearing even if they’re tendered a contract. Arbitration settlements are fully guaranteed. Salaries determined at a hearing (regardless of whether the arbitrator chose the club’s or player’s filing figure) are not locked in until the beginning of the regular season. If a player whose salary was determined at a hearing is released during the offseason or in Spring Training, they’re only entitled to termination pay. That’d be 30 days at their prorated salary if the release occurs more than 15 days before Opening Day and 45 days of termination pay if the release happens within 15 days of the start of the season.
As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising. We’re only looking at players who are eligible for arbitration. There’ll be plenty of pre-arbitration players from the back of teams’ rosters who are dropped (often to immediately re-sign on minor league deals), but those are outside the scope of this post.
Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:
Catchers
- Riley Adams (Nationals): $1.5MM
- Luis Campusano (Padres): $1MM
- Jonah Heim (Rangers): $6MM
- Alex Jackson (Orioles): $1.8MM
- Andrew Knizner (Giants): $1.3MM
- Reese McGuire (Cubs): $1.9MM
- Garrett Stubbs (Phillies): $925K
- Connor Wong (Red Sox): $1.6MM
First Basemen
- Jake Bauers (Brewers): $2MM
- Jake Burger (Rangers): $3.5MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (Red Sox): $13.5MM*
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): $7.8MM
- Pavin Smith (Diamondbacks): $2.4MM
Second Basemen
- Vidal Bruján (Braves): $800K
- Mauricio Dubón (Astros): $5.8MM^
- Luis García Jr. (Nationals): $7MM
- Jonathan India (Royals): $7.4MM
- Gavin Lux (Reds): $5MM
- Michael Massey (Royals): $2MM
Third Basemen
- Alec Bohm (Phillies): $10.3MM
- Oswaldo Cabrera (Yankees): $1.2MM
- Ezequiel Duran (Rangers): $1.4MM
- Andy Ibáñez (Tigers): $1.8MM
- Ramón Urías (Astros): $4.4MM*
Shortstops
- Nick Allen (Braves): $1.5MM^
Center Fielders
- JJ Bleday (Athletics): $2.2MM*
- Derek Hill (White Sox): $1MM
- Jake McCarthy (Diamondbacks): $1.9MM
- Jack Suwinski (Pirates): $1.7MM
- Matt Vierling (Tigers): $3.1MM
Corner Outfielders
- Will Benson (Reds): $1.7MM
- Will Brennan (Guardians): $900K
- Jake Fraley (Rays): $3.6MM*
- Tyler Freeman (Rockies): $1.8MM
- Adolis García (Rangers): $12.1MM
- Sam Haggerty (Rangers): $1.4MM
- Nolan Jones (Guardians): $2MM
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): $4.7MM
- MJ Melendez (Royals): $2.65MM
- Christopher Morel (Rays): $2.6MM*
- Luke Raley (Mariners): $1.8MM
- Jesús Sánchez (Astros): $6.5MM
- Mike Tauchman (White Sox): $3.4MM
- Taylor Trammell (Astros): $900K
- Eli White (Braves): $1.2MM
Designated Hitters
- David Fry (Guardians): $1.2MM
Starting Pitchers
- Bailey Falter (Royals): $3.3MM
- Ryan Feltner (Rockies): $2.3MM
- Jake Irvin (Nationals): $3.3MM
- Alek Manoah (Braves): $2.2MM
- Luis Medina (Athletics): $900K
- Andre Pallante (Cardinals): $3.4MM
- JP Sears (Padres): $3.5MM
- José Suarez (Braves): $1.5MM
- Ken Waldichuk (Athletics): $900K
- Joey Wentz (Braves): $1.1MM
Right-Handed Relievers
- Jason Adam (Padres): $6.8MM
- Jorge Alcala (Cardinals): $2.1MM*
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): $2.3MM
- Jake Bird (Yankees): $1MM
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): $1.3MM
- JT Brubaker (Giants): $2.1MM
- Yennier Cano (Orioles): $1.8MM
- Jake Cousins (Yankees): $841K
- Enyel De Los Santos (Astros): $2.1MM
- Camilo Doval (Yankees): $6.6MM
- Scott Effross (Yankees): $800K
- Matt Festa (Guardians): $1MM
- Jason Foley (Tigers): $3.15MM*
- Reed Garrett (Mets): $1.4MM
- Kevin Ginkel (Diamondbacks): $3MM
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): $941K
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): $1.7MM*
- Kevin Kelly (Rays): $1MM
- Jackson Kowar (Mariners): $800K
- Max Kranick (Mets): $1MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (Yankees): $3MM
- James McArthur (Royals): $800K
- Nick Mears (Brewers): $1.6MM
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): $800K*
- Eli Morgan (Cubs): $1.1MM
- Evan Phillips (Dodgers): $6.1MM — expected to miss most or all of 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery in June
- Tanner Rainey (Tigers): $1.6MM*
- Yohan Ramírez (Pirates): $1.2MM
- Gregory Santos (Mariners): $800K
- Josh Sborz (Rangers): $1.1MM
- Brock Stewart (Dodgers): $1.4MM
- Albert Suárez (Orioles): $900K
- Cole Sulser (Rays): $1.2MM
- Ryan Thompson (Diamondbacks): $3.9MM
- Trent Thornton (Mariners): $2.5MM
- Justin Topa (Twins): $1.7MM
- Josh Winckowski (Red Sox): $800K*
Left-Handed Relievers
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): $3MM
- Anthony Banda (Dodgers): $1.7MM
- José Castillo (Mets): $1.7MM
- Sam Hentges (Guardians): $1.3375MM
- John King (Cardinals): $2.1MM
- Joey Lucchesi (Giants): $2MM
- Sam Moll (Reds): $1.2MM
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): $800K
- A.J. Puk (Diamondbacks): $3.3MM — expected to miss most of 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery in June
- Tayler Saucedo (Mariners): $1.1MM*
* Indicates player is currently in DFA limbo
^ Traded for one another since the list was published



