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Robert Suarez “Most Probable” Padres Trade Chip To Be Moved?

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While the Padres are intent on returning to the postseason in 2025, much of the buzz surrounding the team this winter has been about the possibility of higher-paid veteran players being dealt in order to help the team both address roster needs, and shave some money off the payroll.  Rumors have swirled around several of the Padres’ more expensive players, but as Spring Training nears, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears from two sources that dealing Robert Suarez seems to be “the move that appears most probable.”

This doesn’t indicate that Suarez will actually be dealt, of course, or that the Padres have any particular inclination to move the All-Star closer.  But, Suarez’s trade status might be elevated due to the simple fact that San Diego might be able to more easily replace him within the bullpen, and because the Padres’ other trade chips are comparatively trickier to deal away.

Among players mentioned in trade speculation this winter, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth are owed too much in future salary to hold much appeal to other teams.  Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez are slated to become free agents next winter, and Michael King is in the same boat, as his contract’s $15MM mutual option for 2026 will surely be declined by either King himself or by the Padres.  Reports have indicated that if San Diego does trade a starter, Cease is likelier to be moved than King, due to the perception that King is the likelier of the two to be open to extension talks.  As for Arraez, the Padres reportedly have a particular interest in keeping him for at least 2025.

It all leaves Suarez as something of the odd man out, though plenty of obstacles exist on that front as well.  Suarez turns 34 month, and is owed $26MM over the remaining three years of the five-year, $46MM pact he signed with San Diego in November 2022.  That $26MM breaks down as $10MM in 2025, and then Suarez has the option of deciding whether or not to opt out of the deal to test free agency, or simultaneously exercise a pair of $8MM player options covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

Just two months ago, this contract structure was seemingly an obstacle towards a deal, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote that “for now” the Padres weren’t looking to trade Suarez.  Last month, however, the team’s stance seemed to change, as the Padres were thought to be more open to the idea of moving Suarez due to some interest on the trade market.

While many teams could use a high-leverage reliever, working out an acceptable trade return will be tricky for both sides.  Another team might only view Suarez as a one-year investment due to the possibility of an opt-out, while the Padres might view such a trade return as too slight for a pitcher who could end up providing his new club with three years of control.

Beginning his career pitching in the Mexican League and then a long stint in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez didn’t make his debut in affiliated baseball until 2022, when he made his MLB debut at age 31.  The Padres were impressed enough by Suarez’s NPB production to sign him to a one-year, $11MM deal during the 2021-22 offseason, and the team’s belief has paid off.  While his season was marred by injuries and a 10-game sticky-stuff suspension, Suarez was excellent in both 2022 and this past season, when he succeeded Josh Hader as San Diego’s closer.

Suarez posted a 2.77 ERA in 65 innings while closing out 36 of 42 save opportunities during the 2024 regular season, and added 3 1/3 scoreless innings during three playoff appearances.  One of baseball’s hardest-throwing pitchers, Suarez paired that velocity with an above-average walk rate, though other metrics (like his strikeout, barrel, and grounder rates) were all slightly below the league average.

Between Suarez’s age, his .256 BABIP last year, and a 3.53 SIERA that was significantly higher than his 2.77 ERA, a case can be made that the Padres could be making a wise move in selling high on Suarez in advance of any regression.  On the other hand, moving your closer puts more pressure on the rest of the relief corps, and thins out a bullpen that has already lost Tanner Scott to free agency.  Jason Adam or Adrian Morejon might be the most logical save candidates if Suarez is dealt, assuming that the Padres would stick with a full-time closer rather than a committee approach.

Rockies Considering Extension For Brenton Doyle

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The Rockies have had “internal discussions” about the possibility of signing center fielder Brenton Doyle to a contract extension, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.  There isn’t any indication that these considerations have led to any actual negotiations with Doyle’s representatives at the Ballengee Group, and given the normal rhythm of spring extension talks, in-depth talks or an official agreement aren’t likely to take place until closer to Opening Day.

Colorado has been pretty proactive over the years about locking up what the franchise views as its cornerstone players, most prominently past mega-deals for such stars as Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, and Nolan Arenado.  The extension trend has continued since Bill Schmidt was officially named as the Rockies GM in October 2021, as the Rox have extended 10 players during Schmidt’s tenure.  The most recent of these pacts came last March, when Ezequiel Tovar was inked to a seven-year extension that will pay the shortstop at least $63.5MM.

Entering his third MLB season, Doyle has already established himself as arguably the game’s best defensive fielder.  Doyle has won the last two NL Gold Glove Awards and he added a Fielding Bible Award to his trophy case in 2024.  An elite throwing arm and elite speed adds to Doyle’s defensive prowess, and he took some important steps towards being a true five-tool talent when he hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs over 603 plate appearances last season.

Factoring in Coors Field’s hitter-friendly nature, Doyle’s offense still checked in at below the league average, with a 97 wRC+.  Still, this was a drastic improvement over the 45 wRC+ he posted over 431 PA during his 2023 rookie season, with Doyle hitting the ball with much more authority in 2024 than he did the previous year.  His 7.6% walk rate and 25.4% strikeout rates remain below average, but the latter number in particular is a quantum leap from Doyle’s 35% strikeout rate in 2023, which was the worst in baseball among any player with at least 400 PA.

The underlying metrics point to substantive year-to-year improvement for Doyle, without too much luck entering the equation — his wOBA and xwOBA were virtually identical in 2024, and his .316 BABIP this year wasn’t far beyond his .295 BABIP in 2023.  A player with Doyle’s speed is likely to have higher BABIPs anyway, and that speed also manifested itself in the form of 30 stolen bases in 35 chances.

Doyle’s glovework is alone enough to merit a spot on a Major League roster, but providing even league-average offense raises his ceiling considerably as a lineup regular.  Since an everyday center fielder is among the rarer commodities in the game, it makes sense that Colorado would be thinking about a long-term commitment relatively early into Doyle’s career.

A fourth-round pick in the 2019 draft, Doyle is a bit of a late bloomer, as he was just a bit shy of his 25th birthday when he made his MLB debut.  With a year and 161 days of big league service time already amassed, Doyle is on pace to achieve Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration eligibility.  This doesn’t change the Rockies’ team control that runs through the 2029 season, but it does line Doyle (who turns 27 in May) up to start earning larger salaries earlier in his career.

An extension would therefore give the Rox some cost certainty on Doyle through those arbitration years, rather than deal with an escalating price tag.  On the other hand, since Doyle is already controlled through his age-31 season, the Rockies might not view an extension as a pressing priority.  Schmidt and his front office might also want a bit more evidence of Doyle’s improvement at the plate before making a multi-year commitment.

From Doyle’s perspective, it would stand to reason that he’d be open to extension talks.  Between his $500K draft signing bonus and minimum salaries in his first two MLB seasons, Doyle might view an extension as a great way to lock in the first fortune of his pro career.  There’s an argument for waiting from Doyle’s side as well, as he’d cash in to an even greater degree on an extension next winter if he can match or top his 2024 offensive numbers in 2025, since surely the Rockies would then be just as eager to solidify his place as a building block on their roster.

A Doyle extension would stand out the biggest transaction of a pretty quiet Rockies offseason, as Colorado hasn’t done much to improve a roster that has lost 204 games over the last two seasons.  While not exactly in a rebuild mode, the Rockies are clearly focusing on their young talent and on better health from several veterans (i.e. Kris Bryant, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez) in order to make some type of forward progress in 2025.

Orioles Sign Dylan Coleman

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The Orioles appear to have reached an agreement with Dylan Coleman, as revealed by the right-hander himself on his Instagram account.  The 28-year-old Coleman has been looking for a new team since being released by the Astros last August, and presumably his new deal with Baltimore is a minor league pact.

Coleman threw one inning of scoreless ball in the Astros’ 8-0 win over the Blue Jays last April 3, which marked his only big league appearance of the 2024 campaign.  Houston optioned Coleman back to Triple-A the next day, and he struggled to a 6.50 ERA and a garish 23.9% walk rate over 36 innings with Sugar Land before being designated for assignment and released over the summer.

These extreme control problems have increasingly plagued Coleman’s career over the last few seasons.  His walk rates were middling during his time in the Padres’ farm system, and in his only extended stretch of MLB action.  Coleman posted a very solid 2.78 ERA over 68 relief innings for the Royals in 2022, and while a .247 BABIP and 12.8% walk rate stood out as warning signs, it seemed like Coleman was carving a niche for himself in the Kansas City bullpen.

It all went south in 2023, however, as Coleman had an 8.84 ERA in 18 1/3 frames for the Royals, plus a 4.70 ERA over 30 2/3 innings with Triple-A Omaha.  Coleman’s walk rates ballooned to an untenable 19.8% in the majors and 21.8% in the minors, and the Royals parted ways entirely by trading him to the Astros in December 2023.

Coleman’s fastball topped the 98mph mark when he made his Major League debut in 2021, though his velocity dropped to a 95.7mph average in Triple-A ball last year.  That still counts as a pretty live fastball, and Coleman recorded some big strikeout numbers in the minors along with a 24.2% strikeout rate over his 93 2/3 career innings in the Show.  The Orioles must feel there’s enough there to take a flier on Coleman in spring camp, as his 2022 numbers hint at his potential if he can limit his walks.

Padres Inquired About Westburg, Mayo, Basallo In Cease Trade Talks With Orioles

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Reports back in December suggested that the Orioles had trade interest in Dylan Cease, and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wrote today that the O’s and Padres indeed had some level of discussion about the right-hander’s availability.  However, it isn’t clear if talks have gone anywhere, as Kubatko reports that San Diego “checked on” some notable Baltimore players who “weren’t on the table,” including All-Star infielder Jordan Westburg and top prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo.  The nature of the trade discussion aren’t known, but presumably one of these three would’ve been the headliner of a trade package, with Cease (and perhaps other players) heading to Baltimore in return.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is said to be looking for “significant major-league value” in exchange for Cease, and it is only natural that Preller would aim high when discussing perhaps his top trade chip.  Landing Westburg would have filled San Diego’s second base position for years to come, Mayo could’ve become the Padres’ first baseman of the future and very likely a contributor in 2025, and Basallo projects as a keeper at either first base or catcher.  San Diego already has one of the sport’s top catching prospects in Ethan Salas, but further adding to the future depth chart would’ve given the Padres an embarrassment of riches at a notoriously difficult position to fill.

For many of these same reasons, the Orioles obviously have no interest in dealing any of this trio.  As Kubatko notes, it is particularly unlikely that Baltimore (or perhaps any other team) would trade away premium controllable talent for Cease, who is slated to enter free agency next winter.

It should be noted that the Orioles did swing a big trade for a rental pitcher just over a year ago, when the O’s moved Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (Baltimore’s Competitive Balance Round selection) to the Brewers in exchange for Corbin Burnes.  That trade package has been suggested by many as a possible comp for what the Padres might realistically hope to land in a Cease deal, though the fact that the Orioles already depleted their minor league depth for Burnes might make them unlikely to make another splurge for a pitcher with one year of control.

The Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Red Sox are among the teams who have also been linked to Cease’s trade market at various points this winter, though reports have suggested that Minnesota and New York are unable or unwilling to meet the Padres’ demands.  The Red Sox already dealt away some noteworthy young talent to obtain Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, and might not want to move even more players to also add Cease.

With several weeks to go before Opening Day, it is certainly still possible any of these teams or the Orioles could re-emerge as possible trade partners, should the Padres lower their asking price.  On the flip side, pitching injuries in Spring Training might well bring some new teams into the mix, perhaps with some increased desperation that would make them more willing to cough up a bigger trade package that would come closer to meeting San Diego’s needs.

Since Burnes was entering free agency and ultimately headed to the Diamondbacks, an ace pitcher was widely seen as perhaps the top need on Baltimore’s offseason checklist.  While the O’s were known to have at least had some talks about some top free agents or trade targets, the club instead made more moderate pitching adds, signing Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to one-year contracts.  Sugano and Morton join Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer as the Orioles’ projected starting five, with Albert Suarez working as a swingman in the bullpen, and the likes of Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott at Triple-A as further depth options.

With Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells also hoping to make late-season returns from UCL surgeries last season, the Orioles might end up having a surplus of rotation options if everyone is healthy.  In theory, it would make sense if the O’s offered one of the younger big league-ready arms as part of a Cease trade, as the Padres could then use that pitcher to take Cease’s spot in their own rotation.  But, with Eflin, Morton, and Sugano all free agents next winter, Baltimore surely hopes to dip into its depth to reload what might be a very different-looking rotation in 2026.

Derek Falvey Discusses Twins’ Payroll, Future Moves, Trade Market

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A very quiet Twins offseason finally started to pick up some steam this week, when the club signed Harrison Bader and Danny Coulombe to one-year guarantees.  Coulombe will earn $3MM, while Bader will earn at least $6.25MM, with a chance to earn more in 2025 based on incentive clauses.  (Bader and the Twins also share a $10MM mutual option for the 2026 season.)

For now, it adds up as a $9.25MM boost to the Twins’ payroll.  President of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that the spending space came about after Twins chairman Joe Pohlad “greenlighted….the ability to add a little bit here to this team.  I think that’s a credit to them and certainly a tick up for us that allows us to add a little bit more to this roster that we feel already had a good base, but now we’ve clicked off some of those needs.”

While $9.25MM is a fairly modest sum by modern baseball standards, it underlines the narrow budget that Falvey and GM Jeremy Zoll are believed to have been working under for much of the winter.  Past reports indicated that the Twins’ 2025 payroll was going to roughly match their approximate $129.6MM payroll (hat tip to RosterResource) from last season, and the club’s lack of activity for much of the offseason was due to the difficulty in trying to both add to the roster while also shedding some unwanted contracts.  Christian Vazquez ($10MM in 2025) and Chris Paddack ($7.5MM) were two of the impending free agents widely viewed as trade candidates as Minnesota tried to balance the books.

It’s safe to assume the front office is still open to offers for either Vazquez or Paddack, though the Twins’ need to deal at least one of the two players doesn’t quite seem as glaring as it did even a few weeks ago.  The trade market in general, Falvey said, has somewhat cooled, which is perhaps why Minnesota turned its attention to free agents like Bader and Couloumbe to address needs.

“I think teams are a little more focused internally now as they’re ready to ship off to Arizona and Florida and try to get things squared away [for Spring Training].  Some of those last remaining free agents, I think that’s been the vast majority of the noise,” Falvey said.

The Twins’ outfield needs could explain why they stretched the budget to bring in Bader, who now fills a key role as the fourth outfielder.  The right-handed hitting Bader can both back up Byron Buxton in center field if Buxton again runs into injury problems, plus Bader can spell the left-handed hitting Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach (Minnesota’s other projected regular outfielders) when a southpaw is on the mound.  Falvey revealed that the Twins had been targeting Bader for several seasons before finally landing the former Gold Glover this winter.

RosterResource currently projects Minnesota’s 2025 payroll at around $146.4MM.  It seems possible the number could still increase a little further, as Falvey said the team is considering other upgrades, even if minor league deals could end up being the preferred course of action to bring in roster depth.  A veteran first baseman on a non-guaranteed deal is a potential target, as this hypothetical player would bring some experience to a first base mix that currently consists of Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien as the top options.

Pirates Outright Alika Williams

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The Pirates sent infielder Alika Williams outright to Triple-A Indianapolis, reports Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. Pittsburgh designated him for assignment earlier in the week as the corresponding move for the Tim Mayza signing.

Williams has appeared in 83 games over the past two seasons. Pittsburgh acquired the former supplemental first-round pick from the Rays in a swap for reliever Robert Stephenson in 2023. The Bucs called him up not too long after. They’ve given Williams 207 plate appearances within the past couple seasons. He hasn’t made an impact at the plate, hitting .202/.257/.271 with no home runs.

The offensive upside has been a longstanding question. Prospect evaluators have praised his defense at both middle infield positions. Williams has shown solid strike zone awareness in the minor leagues, but he has never shown much power. He has 27 homers in nearly 1300 minor league plate appearances. His batted ball metrics at both the MLB and Triple-A levels have been middling, though his contact skills have translated to a solid .299/.376/.447 line over 367 Triple-A plate appearances.

This is the first time that Williams has been outrighted. He does not have the right to decline the assignment in favor of free agency. He’ll stick with the Bucs without occupying a 40-man spot and will get a non-roster invitation to Spring Training later this month.

The Mets Haven’t Done Enough With Their Rotation

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In nearly every aspect, it's been a banner offseason for the Mets. They signed one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history to the largest contract in North American sports. They brought back a franchise cornerstone their preferred way: a short-term deal that doesn't run the risk of overcommitting long-term. They re-signed the lefty who carried their rotation in the season's second half in what looks like a potential late-blooming breakout. They grabbed one of the most underrated relievers not just in this year's class but throughout the sport in general. Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and A.J. Minter make for a terrific quartet of headline additions, with a broad-reaching swath of depth moves also on the books.

Keeping Manaea was an undeniable boon to Carlos Mendoza's rotation, even if it came at a generally steep cost. As shown in MLBTR's Contract Tracker, Manaea is one of just five starters in the past decade to secure a $25MM AAV over three or more years beginning in his age-33 season or later. Teams generally are loath to commit this type of money in a pitcher's mid-30s, but the left-hander's performance and the bull market for starting pitching early in the winter coalesced to land him (and 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi) a rare contract for pitchers in this age bracket.

The rest of the Mets' moves in the rotation, however, have been lackluster. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns came to Queens with a reputation of eschewing long-term deals from his time heading up the Brewers' baseball operations department. There was some question as to how much of that stemmed from Milwaukee's perennially bottom-third payroll and how much was a philosophical directive from Stearns himself. The two offseasons with Stearns at the helm for the Mets don't represent a large enough sample to say he simply won't go long-term for a pitcher under any circumstances, but signs point to the likelihood that his avoidance of large-scale pitching contracts in his Brewers days wasn't solely a product of owner Mark Attanasio's frugality.

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Jhonathan Diaz Elects Free Agency

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The Mariners announced a pair of DFA resolutions this evening. Outfielder Cade Marlowe and left-hander Jhonathan Díaz each went unclaimed. Díaz elected free agency, while Marlowe will stick in the organization without occupying a 40-man roster spot.

Díaz lost his roster spot when Seattle acquired Casey Legumina from the Reds. The 28-year-old southpaw had been on the roster since Seattle selected his contract in late May. They kept him on optional assignment to Triple-A Tacoma for most of the year. Diaz made five big league appearances, including one start. He allowed six runs (five earned) over 9 2/3 innings, striking out eight while issuing three walks.

Before his Seattle tenure, Díaz spent parts of three seasons with the Angels. He has yet to reach 20 major league innings in a season. Over 45 career frames, Díaz has a 4.80 earned run average with a below-average 15% strikeout percentage and a lofty 12.6% walk rate. The Venezuelan-born southpaw is coming off a solid year in Tacoma. Díaz put up a 4.36 ERA with a near-23% strikeout rate and a strong 54.1% grounder percentage across 23 appearances. He only averaged 89-90 MPH on his fastball, but the Triple-A numbers will surely get him another minor league opportunity somewhere.

Díaz had the right to choose free agency because he’d been outrighted by the Angels in 2023. This is Marlowe’s first career outright, so he had no choice but to accept the minor league assignment. The 27-year-old has appeared in 42 MLB games over the past two seasons. Marlowe had a middling year with Tacoma, hitting .236/.342/.395 over 411 trips to the plate. He was designated for assignment as the corresponding move for the finalization of the Jorge Polanco deal. The Mariners figure to extend him a non-roster invitation to MLB camp later this month.

Looking At The Brewers’ Rotation Depth Options

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The Brewers have won the National League Central two years in a row and three of the last four. They will be looking to defend that title in 2025 but might face a steeper challenge than in years past. The Cubs have had an aggressive offseason, adding Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier and more. The Reds added Brady Singer, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays and will be getting several players back from injury. The Pirates have had a quiet winter but have a rotation loaded with young talent, fronted by Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. The Cardinals planned to do a teardown but ended up standing pat, so they’re going into the year with a very similar roster to the one that finished above .500 last year.

Milwaukee hasn’t done a lot to remake its roster relative to last year. They have added Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin but lost Willy Adames, Devin Williams and others. Whether the team is better or worse than last year is debatable.

The rotation wasn’t a strength in 2024. Their starters put up a collective 4.09 earned run average, putting them 17th out of the 30 teams in the league. Their bullpen was one of the best, however. Their relievers had a collective ERA of 3.11, second only to the Guardians, which helped the team cruise to that division title. That was despite Williams being injured for much of the year.

Going into 2025, the rotation looks like it could be in a similar situation overall, though with some personnel changes. Of the seven players that made at least nine starts for the club last year, four of them are gone. Frankie Montas and Joe Ross hit free agency at season’s end, the former by declining a mutual option. Bryse Wilson was outrighted and Colin Rea had a club option turned down, so they also hit the open market as well.

Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers and Aaron Civale are the three holdovers. Cortes was brought in from the Yankees as part of the Williams trade. In an interview this week with Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, manager Pat Murphy confirmed that those four make up his rotation core to start the season. Brandon Woodruff, who missed 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery, will be in there at some point but probably won’t be ready by Opening Day.

“I would think those four guys are [penciled in],” Murphy said, “and you can put Woody in there, too. But you can’t have him ready to start the season; he probably won’t be. But I think it’s pretty safe to say that those five guys are starters that, when healthy, are going to get opportunities.”

Taking things easy with Woodruff makes sense after his lost season, but that means the club will likely have to reach into its depth. Perhaps that will only be for a short time, but injuries are inevitable over the course of a season. For the long term, the need will be even greater. Civale and Cortes are both slated to be free agents after the upcoming season. Woodruff will certainly join them, as his deal has a $20MM mutual option for 2026 with a $10MM buyout. That was basically designed so that he would re-sign but with the club able to kick most of the payment down the line until the end of 2025. Peralta can be retained for 2026 via an affordable $8MM club option but is slated for free agency after that.

That means Myers is the only guy slated to still be on the roster when November of 2026 rolls around. Even he is not a lock to keep a spot going forward, as his strong 2024 season came after several years of poor minor league numbers. In short, the long-term rotation is wide open. Can the Brewers fill some of that in with guys already in the system? Let’s take a look at some of the options.

Aaron Ashby

Ashby, 27 in May, seemed like a potential rotation building block a few years ago. He tossed 139 innings in a swing role over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. His 4.47 ERA wasn’t especially impressive but his 27.1% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 57.8% ground ball rate seemed like a solid recipe for success.

The Brewers were intrigued enough to make a bet on the lefty, signing him to a five-year deal during the 2022 campaign which guaranteed him $20.5MM and also came with club options for 2028 and 2029.

Unfortunately, shoulder problems got in the way. Arthroscopic surgery wiped out his 2023 season. He returned last year and was kept mostly in a relief role, but with some good results. Down the stretch, he tossed 19 2/3 innings over 12 appearances with a 1.37 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate.

With those numbers, it might be tempting to keep him in a bullpen role, but the club seems interested in stretching him out. Back in November, Murphy said the club still hopes to see what Ashby can do as a starter. He still has one option year and can be sent to the minors if the club would like.

DL Hall

Hall, 26, was a first-round pick of the Orioles in 2017 and went on to be a top 100 prospect. He came to the Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes trade last offseason. He hasn’t lived up to that prospect hype just yet.

He has pitched in the past three seasons but logged only 76 innings. His 4.74 ERA doesn’t impress but his 25.1% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 46.5% ground ball rate make for a decent mixture. A left knee sprain hobbled him last year, limiting him to just 84 frames between the majors and minors. In 2022 and 2023, the Orioles shuttled him between the majors and the minors, as well as moving him between starting to relieving. He tossed 98 innings in 2022 between the majors and minors, then 71 1/3 in 2023. His minor league work has generally featured big strikeout numbers but also plenty of walks.

Hall is still a work in progress but the Brewers probably don’t want to give up on him, given the upside here. Like Ashby, he has one option year remaining, so pitching out of the Triple-A rotation isn’t off the table. He has one year and 74 days of service time, meaning he is currently slated for five years of club control, though a lengthy optional assignment could push that to six. Either way, he’s cheap and controllable for a long time to come.

Robert Gasser

Gasser, 26 in May, won’t be an option in the short term but is definitely part of the long-term plans. A former top 100 prospect, he debuted with a splash last year by posting a 2.57 ERA in his first five big league starts. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in June, wiping out the second half of his 2024. He’s now slated to miss most or perhaps all of 2025. He has less than a year of service time at the moment and the Brewers therefore have six years of club control over him.

Jacob Misiorowski

Misiorowski, 23 in April, is not yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the top pitching prospects in the league. He reached as high as Triple-A last year, though the club eased off his workload by having him pitch shorter stints out of the bullpen to finish the year. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he tossed 97 1/3 innings on the year with a 3.33 ERA. He struck out 30.5% of hitters and got grounders at a 45.8% clip but also gave out walks 14.4% of the time. Though the club eased off the gas, that innings total is still his personal high thus far.

The righty is clearly going to factor into the mix at some point, but there’s clearly still some development going on. 2025 will likely be about reining in the control and getting the workload beyond the 100-inning mark, but it’s entirely possible that he throws some big league innings this year.

Elvin Rodríguez

Rodríguez, 27 in March, is a wild card at the moment. He spent 2024 in a multi-inning role for the Yakult Swallows in Japan. He logged 45 innings over 32 appearances with a 1.80 ERA, 24% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. Whether the Brewers view him more as a starter or a reliever is unknown.

Carlos Rodríguez

Rodríguez, 23, made a limited MLB debut last year. He tossed 12 1/3 innings over three starts with a 7.30 ERA. Over the past three years, he has logged 365 2/3 innings on the farm with a 3.49 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate. Most prospect evaluators consider him a capable back-end starter but he’s still young and has a couple of options remaining, so he’ll likely be in the Triple-A rotation until circumstances change.

Chad Patrick/Logan Henderson

These two were each just added to the 40-man roster in November, to keep them out of the Rule 5 draft. Henderson, 23, is considered more of a legit prospect but he is still a question mark. Elbow surgery limited him to just 13 2/3 innings in 2022. He got that up to 78 2/3 in 2023 and then 81 1/3 last year. His minor league numbers are strong overall, with a 3.11 ERA, 34.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. However, he mostly gets by with a fastball/changeup mix that leads some to predict he’ll end up in the bullpen. Patrick is considered more of a depth/spot starter.

Bruce Zimmermann/Thomas Pannone/Easton McGee

These three signed minor league deals with the club this offseason. They all have a bit of major league experience and give the club some non-roster depth. Zimmermann has a 5.57 ERA in 158 1/3 innings and Pannone a 5.46 ERA in 118 2/3 innings, while McGee hasn’t allowed a run in his 9 2/3 innings.

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Though the Woodruff timeline creates some uncertainty, there are plenty of intriguing options here for the short term. But as mentioned, the Brewers will likely see three starters departing at the end of the year and a fourth after 2026. Ideally, guys like Ashby, Hall, Misiorowski and Gasser would step up take those spots, because the club usually doesn’t have a lot of spending power for bringing in free agents. That makes 2025 a key season in Milwaukee, since their future rotation plans are completely in flux.

Yariel Rodriguez Entering Camp As Starting Pitcher

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The Blue Jays are keeping Yariel Rodríguez stretched out as a starter going into Spring Training, general manager Ross Atkins told reporters (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). “(He’ll) come in stretched out and compete for that fifth spot. He’ll remain depth for us, and we’ll make a decision about halfway or three-quarters of the way through Spring Training to try to put our pieces in the best positions to be successful,” Atkins said.

Toronto had looked to add a free agent starting pitcher throughout the offseason. After missing on long-term swings for Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, the Jays went short term to add Max Scherzer on a one-year, $15.5MM deal. The future Hall of Famer joins Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt as Toronto’s top four. The fifth spot is theoretically up for grabs between Rodríguez and Bowden Francis. Whomever doesn’t get the rotation spot could strengthen a bullpen that was a major weakness last season.

Francis should have the leg up in the camp battle. The 28-year-old righty was quietly dominant down the stretch. Toronto plugged Francis into the rotation around the time they dealt Yusei Kikuchi at last summer’s trade deadline. Francis fired 65 innings with a 1.80 earned run average across 11 appearances (10 starts) through season’s end. He held opponents to a .140/.188/.294 slash over 235 plate appearances. While some of that is due to an unsustainably low BABIP (.142), Francis also struck out a quarter of batters faced while keeping his walks to a minuscule 3.4% clip.

That was his first extended run as a major league starting pitcher. Francis posted a 1.73 ERA across 36 relief innings in 2023. He worked out of John Schneider’s bullpen for the first half of last season. Opponents blitzed him for a near-6.00 ERA behind a robust .276/.341/.481 line through the All-Star Break. Francis missed six weeks with forearm tendinitis and was briefly optioned to Triple-A before his fantastic second half.

Rodríguez, a Cuba native who previously pitched in NPB, signed a five-year contract with a $32MM guarantee last offseason. The 27-year-old started all 21 appearances during his first big league season. He posted a 4.47 ERA over 86 2/3 frames. Rodríguez punched out 23.1% of batters faced but walked nearly 11% of opponents. He missed six weeks with back inflammation and was optioned on and off the active roster a few times. Rodríguez made eight appearances with Triple-A Buffalo, where he turned in a 1.33 ERA with a strikeout rate pushing 38%.

The Jays reportedly cannot option Rodríguez to the minors without his approval anymore. Assuming the top four starters are healthy and Francis wins the fifth starter role, they’d presumably try to get Rodríguez multi-inning relief stints. That’d keep him reasonably stretched out in case they need to move him into the rotation in response to an in-season injury. Jake Bloss, acquired from the Astros in the Kikuchi trade, is next on the depth chart. Toronto has added Eric Lauer and Adam Kloffenstein on minor league deals. Alek Manoah is rehabbing Tommy John surgery and hopes to be back on the mound in August.

Adding Scherzer pushed the Jays’ luxury tax payroll to roughly $273MM (as calculated by RosterResource). That’s a franchise record that puts them within $8MM of the third tax tier — at which point their top pick in the 2026 draft would be dropped 10 slots. Atkins left open the possibility for a late-offseason acquisition, though he implied that they’re winding down on free agent activity.

“It’d be hard to add to the rotation at this point unless it’s just depth,” Atkins told reporters (including Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling). “On the position player group, if there’s a way to increase our depth, we’ll look to do that. I think at this point it would require a trade for us to add to the team. It doesn’t have to, but it most likely would be the case.”

The Jays have been on the periphery of the Alex Bregman market, though it seems the Astros, Tigers and Red Sox have been more heavily involved. Toronto was tied to Nick Pivetta before they signed Scherzer. There aren’t many other key players who remain unsigned, but the Jays could potentially bring in a veteran infielder on a minor league deal to factor into their third base competition.

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