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Angels Hoping To Add To Rotation

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The Angels are looking to add to their rotation and have been “mulling” whether to make a run at Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though Heyman adds that they’re more likely to go after a back-end guy like Michael Lorenzen. The club has been loosely tied to Snell and Montgomery earlier in the offseason but without anything seeming close or particularly viable.

The club’s current rotation projects to be fronted by some combination Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. Options for the fifth spot include Chase Silseth, José Suarez and Zach Plesac. That competition also would have had Sam Bachman in it, but Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that Bachman had arthroscopic surgery last fall and won’t be ready for Opening Day.

That rotation mix has talent but plenty of question marks. Detmers had a 3.77 ERA in 2022 but it jumped to 4.48 last year. Sandoval went from 2.91 to 4.11 while Anderson jumped from 2.57 to 5.43. Canning was healthy enough to get to 127 innings pitched last year but that was a new high for him, thanks to injuries and the pandemic. Suarez missed most of last year due to a shoulder strain. Silseth has just 81 innings of MLB experience and only 45 2/3 at Triple-A. Plesac’s ERA shot up to 7.59 with the Guardians last year. There was some bad luck in there but he was nonetheless passed through waivers and outrighted off the roster.

Given those question marks and the inevitable pitcher injuries that arise in a long baseball season, there’s plenty of logic in adding to that group. A run at Snell or Montgomery would be interesting, as there are reasons to doubt the possibility. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the largest contract the Angels have given a starting pitching since the start of 2012 is the three years and $39MM they gave Anderson. That historical lack of spending on starting pitching and owner Arte Moreno’s recent comments about operating with a lower payroll this year would make it surprising to see the Angels suddenly splurge on Snell or Montgomery.

Even with a lower payroll, it’s possible they have some powder dry. They opened last year with an Opening Day payroll of $212MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and also flirted with the luxury tax line. This year, Roster Resource pegs them at $173MM, almost $40MM below where they were a year ago. Their CBT number of $188MM is almost $50MM below this year’s $237MM threshold. That could leave some wiggle room for them to make a notable signing while still having lowered their spending slightly.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell for $200MM over seven years and Montgomery for $150MM over six. The fact they are still on the open market in mid-February suggests they may be having difficulty getting into that range, so perhaps there’s an opportunity for the Angels to make something work, despite their past resistance to long-term deals for starters.

Either would immediately become the best pitcher on the staff, if added. Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young victory, posting a 2.25 ERA with the Padres last year. He’s had his ups and downs but is obviously one of the best in the league when he’s throwing well. Montgomery has continued to build his innings totals and lower his ERA since returning from Tommy John surgery. He tossed 44 innings in 2020 with a 5.11 ERA, then got to 157 1/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA in 2021. He followed that up with 178 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball and then 188 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA last year, then adding another 31 postseason frames with a 2.90 ERA.

But signing someone like Lorenzen would be more the Angels’ style and they have, in fact, done it before. After years of being pushed to the bullpen by the Reds, the Halos gave Lorenzen a one-year, $6.75MM deal and let him try starting in 2022. It went reasonably well, as he made 18 starts and logged 97 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA.

He was able to parlay that into a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Tigers and pushed himself even farther in terms of workload and results. He had a 3.58 ERA in 105 2/3 innings with Detroit before getting flipped to the Phillies. He made two excellent starts for his new club, the latter being a no-hitter, but seemed to run out of gas after that. After completing his no-hitter, he was sitting on a 3.23 ERA through 122 2/3 innings on the year. He was lit up the rest of the way and finished the season with an ERA of 4.18, but it seems possible that was a result of him pushing his innings tally into new territory.

MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $22MM deal this offseason. He remains unsigned and is arguably the best starter in free agency apart from Snell and Montgomery. Unless the Angels plan to make a pivot and open themselves up to the idea of a mega deal for a pitcher, Lorenzen would be their best path to solidifying the rotation. Other notable remaining free agent starters are Mike Clevinger, Hyun Jin Ryu, Eric Lauer, Noah Syndergaard, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto.

Twins Still Interested In Michael A. Taylor

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The Twins are known to be looking for rotation depth and a right-handed-hitting outfielder even as spring training gets underway, and Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Minnesota hasn’t ruled out a reunion with Michael A. Taylor. The veteran Taylor was seeking a two-year deal earlier in the offseason, per the report, though it’s not clear whether that ask remains in place.

Taylor, 33 next month, played his typical brand of plus defense in 2023 with the Twins. He logged 960 innings in center field and wound up being credited with five Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average. He went 13-for-14 in stolen base attempts, adding to his track record as a contributor on the basepaths.  His season at the plate was a bit more unusual, at least by his standards.

Though he’s not typically known for his power, Taylor belted a career-high 21 homers in just 388 trips to the plate. His .223 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) was 83 points higher than the .140 career mark he carried into the season. That surge came at a cost, however. Taylor appeared to perhaps be selling out for power, as his 33.5% strikeout rate was easily a career-high mark over a full season — and nearly 10 percentage points higher than the 23.9% mark he’d turned in with the Royals just one year prior. Taylor finished out the season batting just .220 with a paltry .274 on-base percentage but a heartier .442 slugging percentage.

By all accounts, Taylor enjoyed his time in Minnesota. He said back in October that he hoped to return for the 2024 season. However, he’s not likely to have the same role waiting for him if he opts to return. Byron Buxton didn’t play a single game in center field last season as he battled lingering effects from offseason knee surgery. Buxton is slated to return to center field work this season, which would leave less playing time available for Taylor at Target Field. Of course, Buxton’s injury history is among the lengthiest in baseball, so there’d likely be some stretches where Taylor is pressed into regular duty in center — but it nonetheless seems unlikely he’d approach 1000 innings in the outfield in 2024, as he did last year.

That said, even in the unlikely event that Buxton were healthy enough to play nearly everyday in center, there’d still be ways to get Taylor into the lineup. He tattooed left-handed pitching in ’23, hitting .252/.313/.602 with nine homers in only 112 plate appearances. The Twins will have lefty-swinging bats in both the outfield corners — Matt Wallner, Max Kepler — and could use Taylor to spell either player against southpaw opponents. Kepler is a premium defender himself, making him unlikely to be lifted for a late-game defensive replacement. Wallner, on the other hand, is more of a bat-first left fielder and could be swapped out in such situations. A defensive outfield with Taylor in left, Buxton in center and Kepler in right would be among the best in the game.

Taylor has drawn interest from a wide range of teams this offseason. Each of the Pirates, Angels, Padres, Blue Jays, Reds, Dodgers and Red Sox have been linked to him at various points throughout free agency. Some of those clubs (e.g. Dodgers, Jays) have since gone in other directions in their outfield search, but Taylor is still stands as a fit with many of them.

Minnesota’s front office is likely working with a somewhat limited budget. The Twins stated early in the offseason that they planned to reduce payroll due to uncertainty regarding their television broadcast situation, with Dan Hayes of The Athletic reporting a $125-140MM range as the target at the time. They’re currently projected at about $123.5MM, per Roster Resource, so there’s certainly room to add Taylor back into the fold. Adding Taylor and another arm could prove more difficult within those budgetary constraints, barring some type of late trade to free up a bit more payroll space (e.g. Kyle Farmer). The Twins have also reportedly shown interest in righty-hitting outfielder Adam Duvall. Other options on the market include Randal Grichuk, Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham and perhaps Whit Merrifield, who’s expecting to decide on his next team within the next couple days.

Nationals, Jacob Barnes Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals and right-handed reliever Jacob Barnes are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Vayner Sports client will presumably be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Barnes has pitched in the majors every year since 2016, suiting up for eight different teams along the way. The 33-year-old had a strong start to his career with the Brewers from 2016-18, when he pitched to a 3.54 ERA and matching 3.55 FIP over the life of 147 1/3 frames, but he’s struggled in the five years since and slipped into journeyman status. Dating back to the 2019 season, Barnes has pitched 115 1/3 innings for the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers and Cardinals — logging a combined 6.32 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.

Despite those big league struggles, Barnes has produced at a steadily excellent clip in the upper minors. He’s pitched 134 innings over parts of six Triple-A seasons and turned in a stellar 2.15 earned run average. He’s fanned 24.1% of his opponents at that level against a 9% walk rate and has yielded only six total home runs — an average of just 0.4 round-trippers per nine innings pitched. The right-hander has above-average grounder rates and still averages better than 95 mph on his four-seamer. He’s been a two-pitch reliever throughout his career, typically leaning on a fairly standard four-seamer/slider profile.

The Nationals have largely sat out of the free agent market this offseason, with righty Dylan Floro standing as their only bullpen addition. The relief mix behind closer Kyle Finnegan and setup man Hunter Harvey is generally wide open, particularly with this week’s revelation of an injury to right-hander Mason Thompson. Floro and a returning Tanner Rainey (who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022) will give manager Davey Martinez another pair of experienced arms on which to rely, but there’s plenty of opportunity in the Washington ’pen, should Barnes impress either in camp or in Triple-A Rochester to begin the season.

The Opener: Bohm, Orioles, Merrifield

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With Spring Training underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Bohm, Phillies await arbitration results:

Just two arbitration cases have yet to reach their conclusion: that of Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, and that of Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott. According to a report from Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Bohm had his hearing yesterday with a verdict expected sometime today. Bohm requested a $4MM salary for the 2024 campaign while the Phillies countered with a $3.4MMM figure. Both figures come in below MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection for Bohm, which landed at $4.3MM. Bohm appeared in 145 games for Philadelphia last year, slashing an above-average .274/.327/.437 while splitting time between first and third base. With Bryce Harper set to take over first on a permanent basis this year, Bohm figures to get everyday reps at the hot corner in 2024.

2. Will Orioles look to add more pitching?

Yesterday was a tough day for the Orioles pitching staff, as the club announced that right-hander Kyle Bradish is suffering from a UCL sprain and will start the season on the injured list. To make matters worse, left-hander John Means is a month behind schedule entering camp.

The club’s rotation now figures to be led by a duo of Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez entering the season, with Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, and Cole Irvin rounding out the group. Means would likely replace Irvin or Wells whenever he’s cleared to return to the roster. Solid as that group is, it’s easy to see how Baltimore could benefit from the addition of another arm, particularly given the ominous nature of Bradish’s injury. If the club looks to make an addition this spring, Dylan Cease has been subject to trade rumors all throughout the winter, while Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and Mike Clevinger linger on the open market.

3. Merrifield signing on the horizon?

Recent reporting has indicated that veteran second baseman Whit Merrifield is likely to sign on with a new club this weekend as he fields interest from five teams. A three-time All Star, the 35-year-old sports a career .284/.330/.420 line and has generally augmented that production with strong stolen base totals, the versatility to play both the infield and the outfield, and relatively low strikeout rates.

It’s unknown which teams are interested in the veteran’s services at this time, though the Pirates could be a strong speculative fit as a club that had reported interest in adding a second baseman earlier this winter but has yet to do so. The Padres could also make sense as a fit for Merrifield given their glaring need for outfielders and the small chance that incumbent second baseman Ha-Seong Kim could still be moved at some point.

Blue Jays To Sign Eduardo Escobar

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TODAY: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that Escobar’s deal is a minor league arrangement.

Feb 15, 10:44pm: Escobar and the Jays are in agreement on a contract pending a physical, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (on X). Terms of the deal remain unreported. Escobar is represented by DJ Rengifo y Associates.

9:55pm: Infielder Eduardo Escobar is nearing agreement on a free agent deal with the Blue Jays, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). It’s not known if the former All-Star is closing in on a big league contract or a minor league pact with a non-roster invite to Spring Training.

Escobar, 35, is coming off a disappointing 2023 campaign. He opened the season as the Mets’ third baseman but began the year in a dreadful slump. Escobar carried a .125/.173/.229 line into the middle of April and lost the starting job to Brett Baty. The 13-year MLB veteran turned things around in a depth role but seemed a bit superfluous on the New York roster once Baty was recalled.

The Angels, reeling with infield injuries in late June, acquired Escobar for a pair of minor league pitchers. He didn’t produce much offensively, slumping to a .219/.259/.303 slash over 59 contests. The Halos made the obvious call to buy him out for $500K at year’s end as opposed to retaining him via $9MM team option.

Escobar finished the season with a combined .226/.269/.344 batting line in 309 trips to the plate. He struck out in a little more than a quarter of his plate appearances against a 5.8% walk percentage. While he has never had great strikeout and walk numbers, Escobar’s power production dropped off sharply. He hit six home runs after topping the 20-homer mark in each of the prior five full schedules. That was the result of a significant uptick in ground-balls and a drop in his hard contact rate.

The Jays will hope for something more closely approximating his 2021-22 form. Escobar was a slightly above-average hitter in each of those seasons and combined for a .247/.305/.452 showing with 48 longballs over that stretch.

Escobar’s defensive grades have dropped off as he’s gotten into his mid-30s. He can play any of first, second or third base but received below-average marks at all three spots (although his first base experience is limited enough that it’s difficult to draw conclusions about his glovework there).

Toronto has a number of upper level infield options but doesn’t have much certainty at either second or third base. Last year’s primary starters, Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman, are free agents. The Jays brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year pact. Davis Schneider, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Ernie Clement and prospect Addison Barger are all on the 40-man roster and could vie for reps at one or both positions.

Should Blake Snell Consider A Short-Term Deal?

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This offseason has proven to be incredibly slow, with many notable free agents still lingering on the open market in the middle of February. That includes J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Woodruff, Liam Hendriks and many more. But most notably, it includes four top free agents that were generally expected to land nine-figure deals coming into offseason: Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell.

As the calendar continues moving forward and they remain unsigned, the possibility of creative solutions has to be considered. If some club was willing to give these players a straight deal that matched their asking price, it would likely have happened by now. If they can’t find what they are looking for, they might have to open their minds to alternatives. Things can always change, especially with an unexpected injury. The O’s are suddenly without Kyle Bradish as he’s been diagnosed with a sprained UCL and his status is up in the air. That’s not to say that the O’s will suddenly pivot and sign Snell, merely to illustrate that plans can change quickly for any club.

Players in this situation will sometimes opt for a short-term deal with a high average annual value and opt-outs. For instance, when Carlos Correa first signed with the Twins prior to the 2022 campaign, it was a guarantee of $105.3MM over three years. That was a $35.1MM AAV, with Correa having opt-out opportunities after each year. That allowed him to make a huge salary that year and gave him a decent floor in the event of catastrophic injury or a huge dip in performance, while maintaining future earning power.

Correa eventually triggered that first opt-out and returned to the open market, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants. That deal eventually fell apart due to the club having concerns about his long-term health, but it still illustrates the appeal of taking this path. Even after that deal evaporated, Correa still managed to get a $200MM guarantee by signing with the Twins. Carlos Rodón settled for a two-year, $44MM with the Giants going into 2022, eventually opting out and signing with the Yankees for $162MM. Lucas Giolito is hoping to follow his lead, signing a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox this winter which allows him to opt out next offseason.

The argument against Snell taking such a path is straightforward. He simply won’t have a better platform year. He just won a Cy Young award, the second of his career. He stayed healthy enough to make 32 starts and log 180 innings, allowing just 2.25 earned runs per nine. His 13.3% walk rate was quite high, but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 44.4% clip. The walks could come down a touch, but he likely won’t sustain a .256 batting average on balls in play nor an 86.7% strand rate. Producing a Cy Young-caliber season in back-to-back years is incredibly hard for even the greatest pitchers in history.

That’s especially true for Snell, who hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He also won a Cy Young while with the Rays in 2018, but the years in between his two award-winning campaigns were far less impressive. From 2019 to 2022, he posted a 3.85 ERA over 85 starts. None of those seasons saw him pitch even 130 innings, thanks to the pandemic and various injuries. He went on the injured list in that stretch due to a fractured right toe, loose bodies in his left elbow, gastroenteritis and a couple of left adductor groin strains.

Taking a short-term deal would carry the risk of the baseball gods souring on him and his ERA jumping up over 4.00 this year, or perhaps sustaining another injury and turning in a more limited workload. He’s also 31 years old and would be marketing himself as a 32-year-old a year from now. Based on his excellent 2023 season, MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $200MM deal coming into the winter. The Yankees reportedly offered him $150MM over six, but he was hoping for more years and/or an AAV of at least $30MM.

The odds of Snell faring better in next winter’s market are low. Even if he manages to stay healthy and have another great season, he will be joining a market that’s also set to feature the likes of Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer, while options/opt-outs could also add Giolito, Justin Verlander, Nathan Eovaldi and Robbie Ray to the market.

The argument for returning to free agency next winter would be that the external conditions that Snell can’t control would vastly improve. It seems fair to conclude that those factors aren’t working in the players’ favor this winter. The collapse of Diamond Sports Group is pushing down the desire of many clubs to spend, particularly into the long term where the uncertainty is greater. Teams such as the Padres, Rangers and Twins have been decidedly less aggressive this winter compared to previous offseasons. This seems to have allowed other clubs to either be patient or address their needs via trade, like the Yankees did.

Beyond that, the Mets have decided to stay away from the top of the market this offseason. They have been plenty active but have spread their money around to various player on short-term deals. They have avoided the marquee free agents, apart from sniffing around the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding for a while, depriving the market of one of the bigger spenders from previous offseasons.

Perhaps things will change significantly in the next nine months or so. Maybe MLB will get its desired streaming package together and the finances of the league will vastly improve as a result. Maybe the Mets have a pretty good year and Steve Cohen gets back into spending mode. Maybe the Red Sox get encouraging development from their young players in 2024 and decide to go “full throttle” for real in the coming offseason. A similar path could be ahead of the Tigers this year. Perhaps the sale of the Orioles will be approved and the new owner will want to make a big splash, shaking up the market. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies decide their rebuild has gone on long enough and it’s time to send a signal to that effect. That, however, is a whole lot of “ifs” and “maybes.”

It’s possible it could work out for Snell if he were to pivot to maximizing short-term earnings. That’s what Trevor Bauer did when he signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers, an average annual value of $34MM. He had the ability to opt out after the first year with $40MM already banked or after the second year with $85MM already earned.

Instead of focusing on a total guarantee, Snell could push for a record in terms of average annual value. The top mark in that category is currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose heavily-deferred $700MM deal was valued at $46.06MM annually in terms of present day value by MLB and just under $43.8MM by the MLBPA. If he were to get something like $93MM over two years or $139MM over three, he would vault himself to the top of that list.

Snell is 31 years old and could still get paid in his mid-30s if he stays healthy and effective. Jacob deGrom got $185MM over five years going into his age-35 campaign. Scherzer got $130MM over three years going into his age-37 season. Verlander got $86.67MM going into his age-40 season. At a lesser tier, Sonny Gray just got three years and $75MM going into his age-34 season, slightly better than the $63MM over three years that Chris Bassitt got going into his own age-34 campaign.

If the straight $200MM deal isn’t there for Snell, he’ll have to consider other paths. If he were to take something like the Correa or the Bauer deal, he could get roughly halfway to that $200MM target but with plenty of opportunity to go back to the open market and get the rest. He’s currently encumbered by having rejected a qualifying offer, but that wouldn’t be an issue in future since a player can’t receive a second QO in their career. The QO is generally a small detail when clubs are making $200MM investments, but that would be one thing working in Snell’s favor in future offseasons.

Still, the short-term path is fraught with risk. Baseball history is full of dominant pitchers who suffered some kind of career-altering injury and were never the same again. Predicting such things is impossible, and it’s something that every hurler has to at least think about. There’s also the possibility that the market conditions get worse and not better going forward. That’s why having the guarantee in hand is such a preferable path. As the proverb says, the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

What do you think? Should Snell take the best guarantee he can get here in the next few weeks or maximize short-term earnings with a path back to free agency in the not-too-distant future? Have your say in the poll below!

Where Does The Market Stand For Jordan Montgomery?

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Jordan Montgomery’s market took a hit yesterday when Rangers general manager Chris Young threw cold water on the possibility of more acquisitions before Opening Day. “I don’t think there are any additions coming at this point,” Young told reporters, citing the organization’s diminished local broadcasting revenues on their contract with Diamond Sports Group.

While Young noted the team will “keep an open mind,” it’s clear the organization isn’t anticipating a significant splash. That’s something Young implied as far back as late November and has been supported by reporting from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who has suggested throughout the offseason that the team was unlikely to bring Montgomery back.

Nevertheless, there’d been chatter throughout the winter that the left-hander preferred to stay in Arlington and was hopeful of working out a deal once the Rangers finalized their TV contract to remain on Bally Sports for the upcoming season. While their 2024 TV deal was approved last week, Young’s comments from yesterday indicate it doesn’t meaningfully change the organization’s spending outlook.

That shouldn’t be surprising. Throughout the offseason, the Rangers have likely had an idea of the reduced rights fees they’d need to accept if they wanted to keep their deal with Diamond for another year. More meaningfully, there’s still legitimate concern throughout MLB about the local broadcasting arrangement’s viability for 2025 and beyond.

If the Rangers are out of the market, where do things stand for Montgomery six weeks before Opening Day?

Teams With Reported Interest

Angels

The Angels have been loosely tied to both Montgomery and Blake Snell. They explored trade possibilities for a top-of-the-rotation arm during the Winter Meetings and came away empty-handed. After flirting with the competitive balance tax in 2023, their CBT payroll sits almost $50MM below the threshold for the upcoming season. The Halos seem like one of the top suitors for Snell or Montgomery on paper. That’s clouded by an ownership group that frequently pursues puzzling half-measures.

Owner Arte Moreno told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register yesterday that he was “(setting) the budget lower” for the upcoming season. “I’m not going to spend money just to show that we’re going to spend money unless it’s going to substantially change the team,” he added. Perhaps Montgomery qualifies, and the Halos could sign him while remaining well below last year’s spending level, but those comments don’t portend a late-offseason spree.

Giants

At points this offseason, the Giants have been tied to all four of the remaining top free agents. Cody Bellinger is a tough fit after the Jung Hoo Lee signing. The other three (Snell, Montgomery and Matt Chapman) could all still be targets. Roster Resource projects the Giants around $213MM in luxury tax obligations. This year’s base threshold sits at $237MM. Adding Montgomery for somewhere in the $20-25MM range on an annual basis would push them right against that line. The Giants have paid the CBT three times in franchise history but haven’t gone over that line since 2017.

Red Sox

Aside from Texas, the Red Sox have probably been linked to Montgomery most often throughout the winter. Boston ownership has said they don’t anticipate matching last year’s spending. The Sox opened last season with a luxury tax number approaching $226MM. Roster Resource projects their CBT figure for the upcoming season around $198MM. Adding Montgomery would push them towards last year’s line but not all the way. It certainly wouldn’t require they surpass the $237MM mark. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote this week that the Sox were keeping an eye on Montgomery’s market but suggested they’re unlikely to make a serious push unless the left-hander considers a short-term deal.

Big-Market Opportunists?

Mets

The Mets were loosely linked to Montgomery in the early days of the offseason. It doesn’t seem they showed serious interest. After their pursuit of top target Yoshinobu Yamamoto fell short, they pivoted to lower-cost fliers on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea and brought in Adrian Houser via trade. There’s still a case for the Mets to add Montgomery to the upper half of the rotation, but it’d come at a significant cost. The Mets are paying a 110% tax on all spending since they’re in the highest luxury tax bracket and surpassed the threshold in three consecutive seasons.

Phillies

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote on February 4 that some executives throughout the industry believed Philadelphia could be a dark horse candidate for one of the top remaining free agents. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki wrote last week that the Phils didn’t anticipate landing a marquee free agent unless their market collapsed. Zolecki indicated the Phillies would have interest in Montgomery if he took a deal in the three-year range or shorter. If the southpaw pivoted to that kind of proposal, it’d very likely bring in a number of suitors. Philadelphia already has a long-term commitment to Aaron Nola and is trying to keep Zack Wheeler beyond this year.

Yankees

The Yankees checked in with Montgomery early in the offseason. That shows they’re not categorically opposed to bringing him back after trading him at the 2022 deadline because they felt he wasn’t in line to start for them in the postseason. Montgomery threw a jab at the organization before helping Texas to a World Series, telling The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal in early October that “(The Yankees) might have given up on me, but I think it was the best thing for me to get to the Cardinals and get set up with Mad Dog (pitching coach Mike Maddux, who went to the Rangers in 2023). Our pitching philosophies are much closer.”

That didn’t prevent the Yankees from checking back in with Montgomery early this offseason, although they clearly didn’t find his asking price palatable. New York subsequently signed Marcus Stroman but they traded Michael King and a host of depth starters in the Juan Soto deal. The Yankees are into the fourth tier of luxury penalization, so any signing would come with a 110% tax on top of whatever they owe the player.

Dark Horses

Orioles

Baltimore made their long-awaited consolidation trade for an ace last month. Even with Corbin Burnes in the fold, there was an argument for adding another high-end starter to put the finishing touch on an excellent roster. That was true before this morning, but the revelation that ostensible #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL sprain and will begin the season on the injured list could add urgency. The O’s have a projected player payroll in the $96MM range. That’s nearly $40MM above where they started last season but is still a bottom five figure in MLB. With new ownership arriving in the coming weeks and a young core set up to compete throughout the decade, could Baltimore finally make a notable free agent strike under GM Mike Elias?

Cubs

Chicago signed Shota Imanaga to a four-year deal to join the rotation with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon. Chicago has in-house options for the fifth spot —  it looks like a battle between Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad and perhaps Hayden Wesneski — but Montgomery would be a clear upgrade. The Cubs are already above last year’s spending but remain almost $30MM shy of the tax line. It seems likelier that Chicago would pursue Bellinger or Chapman if they’re still exploring the top of the market, but it’s not entirely out of the question they make a run at another starter.

Twins

Minnesota is an extreme long shot, largely on account of their own TV revenue concern. The Twins have kept their payroll right around the $125MM mark all offseason. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported at the beginning of the winter that they were targeting the $125-140MM spending range, down from last year’s $154MM mark. Minnesota lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda and has explored rotation additions, but they’re much likelier to add a low-cost arm in the Michael Lorenzen range.

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There aren’t many teams that clearly remain positioned to offer Montgomery a five- or six-year term at $25MM annually. MLBTR predicted a six-year, $150MM pact at the beginning of the offseason. Early reports suggested Montgomery wanted to beat the seven years and $172MM which Nola secured to remain in Philadelphia.

If he pivots to a shorter-term pact, that’d bring most of the teams mentioned above more firmly into play. Perhaps clubs like the Cardinals or the Rangers could also circle back. For a few reasons, however, Montgomery probably prefers to max out the guarantee this winter.

It’s hard to envision him elevating his free agent stock beyond where it currently sits. He’s coming off a career-best 3.20 ERA and was a key part of a World Series run. He’ll turn 32 next December, raising questions about how many prime years he’s still marketing. Teams’ concern about TV revenues could be just as strong next winter as they are now. Montgomery would also run the risk of being burdened by draft compensation if he returns to free agency in a year or two. The midseason trade sending him from St. Louis to Texas rendered him ineligible for the qualifying offer this time around. He may not be so lucky if he tries to give free agency another shot.

Rob Manfred Not Planning To Seek Another Term As MLB Commissioner

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Rob Manfred spoke with the media today and said that his current tenure as MLB commissioner will be his last. His current term runs through January of 2029. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe was among those to relay the news.

“You can only have so much fun in one lifetime,” Manfred said, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “I have been open with them (the owners) about the fact that this is going to be my last term.”

Manfred, now 65, has been the league’s commissioner since 2014, replacing the retiring Bud Selig. During that decade at the helm, he has proven to be incredibly unpopular among baseball fans but has consistently received the approval of club owners.

That tenure has had many standout elements, notably the significant rule changes aimed at speeding up the pace of the game, the tampering with composition of the baseballs, the expansion of the postseason, the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, the 2020 pandemic, the 2021-22 lockout and the Athletics’ planned relocation to Las Vegas.

The rule changes naturally rankled many purists among baseball fans. The fact that no players received any punishment for the sign-stealing and that Manfred referred to the World Series trophy as a “piece of metal” also caused a great deal of upset, particularly among fans of clubs that lost to the Astros in the postseason. The ongoing relocation of the A’s was clearly not popular in Oakland. The work stoppage, baseball’s first since the 1994-95 strike, was not well received by those who want players to receive a larger chunk of baseball’s revenue relative to the owners.

But the commissioner is ultimately chosen by those owners, who have clearly been happy with the profitability of the game. In July of 2023, Manfred was unanimously approved for another five-year term, with no reports that there was any hesitation or alternative path considered by the bloc.

As with all modern sports leagues, baseball has been gradually pivoting from cable TV towards online streaming. This has not been without challenges, as seen by the tumultuous recent history of the Diamond Sports Group, but the league has also signed lucrative streaming deals with outfits like Apple and NBC. That’s in addition to national deals with traditional broadcasters like Fox and ESPN. As Diamond Sports Group’s relationship with MLB clubs has splintered, the league has taken over broadcasts for some clubs and has future plans for a multi-team streaming package, which would essentially be like MLB.tv but without blackout restrictions.

Despite various challenges, Manfred said in late 2022 that league revenue would be a record $11 billion, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. At the time of Manfred’s extension vote in July of last year, the league pointed out on X that attendance was trending up, perhaps a symptom of those pace-of-play changes. Franchise valuations continue to rise over time, highlighted by the recent agreement to purchase the Orioles. A group led to Peter Angelos purchased the club in 1993 for $173MM and his family agreed to sell it recently to a group led by David Rubenstein for $1.725 billion, multiplying roughly tenfold in just over 30 years.

Everyone in baseball, from fans to historians to players and owners, will naturally form their own opinions of Manfred and his tenure. For now, he still has much on his plate in the remainder of his term. The A’s relocation is still ongoing and the future of Diamond Sports Group remains up in the air. Manfred has also said that he would like to get the ball rolling on expanding the league to 32 teams by the time he leaves.

The league will also have to start a process for replacing him, though they have five years to plan that out. When Selig was stepping down, Manfred was quickly seen as a favorite to succeed him, having already represented the league in collective bargaining talks for many years. Manfred was named the league’s chief operating officer in September of 2013 and Selig reportedly preferred him as his successor. A committee was formed in May of 2014 consisting of seven owners, with the eventual vote requiring 23 out of 30 owners to approve a new commissioner. Manfred and Red Sox chairman Tom Werner were the two finalists, with the initial voting in August 2014 resulting in a 22-8 split, which was in favor of Manfred but not enough to seal the deal. It eventually got over the line the next day.

Angels Showing Interest In Amed Rosario

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The Angels are showing interest in free agents Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernández as they continue their search for infield depth, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tied the Halos to Hernández last month. They hadn’t been directly linked to Rosario before this point.

Rosario is coming off a pedestrian season split between the Guardians and Dodgers. The right-handed middle infielder hit .263/.305/.378 with six homers and 15 steals through 545 combined plate appearances. His power production ticked up a bit after the trade as the Dodgers more frequently leveraged him against lefty pitching. His .256/.301/.408 slash in 48 games was still a bit below average, though. Los Angeles left him off their playoff roster.

The former top prospect had posted roughly average numbers for Cleveland over the preceding two seasons. A durable fixture in the lineup at shortstop, he combined for a .282/.316/.406 slash between 2021-22. Rosario has always been an aggressive hitter who doesn’t hit for much power. His plus contact skills have contributed to three seasons batting above .280, giving him a decent offensive floor.

Where Rosario fits defensively is a bigger question. Public metrics have never looked kindly on his glove. His grades were especially poor in the first half of last season. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved rated him between 11 and 16 runs worse than an average shortstop in fewer than 800 innings with the Guardians. The Dodgers used him more frequently at second base, his first MLB action on the right side of the infield, down the stretch.

Despite the mediocre platform year, Rosario is one of the better middle infielders available in a thin free agent class. He drew some interest from the Blue Jays and Red Sox early in the winter before those teams added other righty-hitting infielders (Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Vaughn Grissom, respectively).

More recently, Rosario was among a handful of shortstop possibilities tied to the Marlins. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this morning that Miami has shown more significant interest in Rosario and Gio Urshela than they have in other reported candidates like Tim Anderson, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi.

While Miami has a path to everyday reps at shortstop, the Halos would likely view Rosario as multi-positional insurance. The Halos have second-year player Zach Neto penciled in at shortstop. Anthony Rendon, Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo could split time between second and third base. Rendon hasn’t reached 60 starts at the hot corner in a season since 2019. Rengifo is a fringe defender who underwent season-ending biceps surgery last September. The Halos haven’t replaced Urshela, who served as a righty-hitting versatile infielder before a pelvis fracture last season.

Owner Arte Moreno said this week that he didn’t anticipate matching last year’s spending level. A run at Rosario should nevertheless be well within range financially. The 28-year-old is looking at a one- or two-year contract. Roster Resource calculates the club’s projected payroll around $173MM. They opened last season with approximately $212MM in player commitments.

Rays Win Arbitration Hearing Over Harold Ramirez

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The Rays were victorious in their arbitration hearing against Harold Ramírez, as first reported by The Associated Press. The DH/corner outfielder will be paid $3.8MM for the upcoming season. His camp had filed at $4.3MM.

Ramírez has been an effective rotational bat for Tampa Bay over the last two seasons. Acquired from the Cubs just before Opening Day in 2022, he hit .300/.343/.404 in his first year with the Rays. The righty hitter turned in an even better .313/.353/.460 slash with a career-best 12 home runs across 434 trips to the plate last season. He owns a .306/.348/.432 in a little under 900 plate appearances with Tampa Bay.

The 29-year-old isn’t a great defensive outfielder and saw the majority of his time at designated hitter a year ago. His lack of defensive value and slightly increasing salaries led Tampa Bay to float his name on the trade market earlier in the offseason. Nothing has come together to this point. Locking in his salary could make a trade moderately more appealing if the Rays continue to field offers during Spring Training, yet it’s also possible he sticks in Tampa Bay for a third season.

Ramírez has between four and five years of MLB service. He’ll be eligible for arbitration again next winter and is on track for free agency after the 2025 campaign, at which point he’ll be 31 years old. This is the second straight year in which Ramírez and the Rays went to a hearing. His camp won a $2.2MM salary (against a $1.9MM team figure) last offseason. They’re on the other end this time around. As the AP notes, the three players who went to a hearing this year after winning in arbitration last offseason — Ramírez, Jason Adam and Luis Arraez — all lost this winter.

Of the 13 hearings thus far, arbitrators have sided with the players on seven. Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm and Marlins closer Tanner Scott have the two cases yet to be resolved.

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