Pirates Notes: Chisenhall, Cervelli, Kela, Burdi
We checked in on a couple injured Pirates a few hours ago. Here’s the latest on more banged-up Bucs from their director of sports medicine, Todd Tomczyk (courtesy of Adam Berry of MLB.com):
- The Pirates signed outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall to a one-year, $2.75MM deal in the offseason, but he hasn’t played yet and it doesn’t appear he will anytime soon. Chisenhall’s still at home mending from left calf tightness. The 30-year-old opened the season on the injured list because of a finger issue, and not long after he started a rehab assignment April 19, the team shut him down because of the calf problem. The same calf prevented Chisenhall from playing past July 1 last year – his final season with the Indians.
- Catcher Francisco Cervelli, out since May 26 with a concussion, will be reexamined by a neurologist on Thursday. He still hasn’t been cleared for workouts. Cervelli’s season got off to a poor start even before his latest concussion-caused absence, while fellow Pirates backstops Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings have also posted subpar aggregate production. Diaz has hit well over the past month, though.
- While Reliever Keone Kela hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 4, he could start throwing again Thursday or Friday. Kela had gone on a rehab stint toward the end of last month, but the Pirates halted it May 31 after he suffered a setback in his injured right shoulder. A headline-grabbing acquisition for the Pirates last summer, the 26-year-old Kela has struggled to a 4.63 ERA/5.63 FIP with 8.49 K/9, 3.09 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent groundball rate in 11 2/3 innings this season.
- One of Keone’s fellow righty relievers, Nick Burdi, has returned to throwing. However, he’s still dealing with symptoms from the nerve injury that forced him to the IL almost two months ago. Burdi incurred his injury April 22 in his most recent outing. The flamethrowing 26-year-old had begun the season in encouraging fashion prior to that night, when he allowed five earned runs in a third of an inning and saw his ERA go from 4.32 to 9.35. Although an ERA that ugly is hard to ignore, it’s worth noting Burdi has put up a stellar 17:3 K:BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings this season.
Pirates’ Trevor Williams Nearing Return
The Pirates have had to go almost a month without right-hander Trevor Williams, who landed on the injured list May 17 with a right side strain. Williams will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, though, and could slot back into Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as next Tuesday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.
Even with the injury factored in, the 27-year-old Williams has perhaps been the Pirates’ best starter in 2019. Before going on the IL, Williams totaled nine starts and 54 innings – good for a six-frame average – and pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9. It continued an underrated run of production for Williams, who combined for a 3.49 ERA/3.68 FIP over 56 starts and 309 1/3 innings from 2017-18.
In addition to Williams’ forthcoming return, the Pirates will soon welcome back fellow righty Jordan Lyles, per Berry. Lyles just hit the IL on the 10th with left hamstring tightness, though it appears he’ll only miss the minimum 10 days. So far in 2019, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the top bargain signings of the offseason. Since inking a one-year, $2.05MM contract during the winter, Lyles has notched a 3.64 ERA/3.63 FIP with 9.23 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and .98 HR/9 in 12 starts and 64 1/3 frames.
Of the 11 pitchers who have started for the Pirates this year, Williams, Lyles, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon are the only ones who have posted average or better numbers. Taillon has been down since the beginning of May with a right flexor strain, however, and Berry reports there’s still no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Chris Archer has come up well short of expectations, Steven Brault has battled control problems, and opposing offenses hammered high-end prospect Mitch Keller during his first two starts.
Is Chris Archer Broken?
The Pirates decided last July to trade two of their prized young players, outfielder Austin Meadows and right-hander Tyler Glasnow, to the Rays for veteran righty Chris Archer. The Bucs took the gamble because they thought they were acquiring a top-of-the-rotation arm in Archer. That isn’t what they’ve gotten, though, and the deal now looks like one of the most lopsided swaps in recent memory. Not only have Meadows and Glasnow broken out in Tampa Bay, but Archer has taken enormous steps backward in his new home.
On Tuesday, in his 21st start as a Pirate, Archer yielded seven earned runs on eight hits – including five home runs – in six innings against the Braves. The Pirates lost the game, unsurprisingly, and continue to look as if they’ll miss the playoffs for the second straight year with Archer on their roster. With a 5.06 ERA/5.14 FIP in 112 innings in Pittsburgh, the 30-year-old Archer has been detrimental to the team’s cause.
At least this season, Archer hasn’t come close to resembling the pitcher who posted a 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP in 1,063 frames as a Ray. Among 118 starters who have thrown 50-plus innings in 2019, Archer ranks last in home run-to-fly ball rate (24.6 percent), fourth worst in FIP (6.15) and walks per nine (4.53), and 11th from the bottom in ERA (5.73). While Archer has fanned 9.2 batters per nine, even that’s below his 2015-18 output.
Looking beyond Archer’s basic production, alarming signs abound. His groundball rate, which has sat in the mid-40s for most of his career, is down to 38.6 percent. In turn, Archer’s fly ball rate has climbed to a career-worst 39.2 percent. That partially explains why he’s running an HR-to-FB rate nearly twice his lifetime figure.
Likewise, it doesn’t appear a change in repertoire has helped Archer’s cause. Per Baseball Savant, Archer turned to a slider (41.7 percent), four-seam fastball (36.4), sinker (10.5) and changeup (9.9) as his primary offerings last year. That has remained the case, though his usage – slider (34.8 percent), four-seamer (27.7), sinker (22.0) and change (13.6) – now looks much different. Hitters’ production against Archer’s slider and change has mostly stayed the same since last year. But they’re tattooing Archer’s sinker, a pitch the Pirates had him resurrect, having put up a .523 weighted on-base average/.522 xwOBA against it, and abusing his four-seamer (.380/.453). Archer has lost velocity on both pitches, and his typical location has changed since a year ago (heatmaps via FanGraphs: four-seamer: 2018, ’19; sinker: 2018, ’19)
As for Archer’s suddenly hideous walk rate, it’s easy to identify causes. After ranking 45th among 121 qualifiers in strike rate last year, he’s down to 93rd out of 127 this season. He’s also running his lowest chase, first-pitch and swinging-strike rates since 2016. When Archer’s not doling out walks, he’s surrendering damaging contact. He ranks in the league’s 24th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected batting average against, expected weighted on-base average against and expected slugging percentage against. While Archer’s .361 wOBA against is subpar, his .379 xwOBA paints an even bleaker picture.
As much as Archer has struggled this season, his pre-Pittsburgh track record earns him some benefit of the doubt. Considering what he accomplished as a Ray, it would be unwise to say Archer’s never going to rebound. However, it doesn’t appear his new sinker-heavy approach is working, nor does his once-bargain contract look all that appealing anymore. With $20MM in team options over the next two years ($9MM in 2020, $11MM in ’21), Archer’s not going to crush the Pirates’ payroll structure. However, as a low-budget team, they can’t afford to have one of their most expensive players continue to falter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLB Draft Signings: 6/12/19
Here are the latest notable MLB draft signings…
- Second-round outfielder Matt Gorski (No. 57) has signed a below-slot deal with the Pirates, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com. He’ll earn $1MM, down from the $1,243,600 recommended slot value of the selection. Callis and Jonathan Mayo ranked Gorski as the 112th-best player in the draft, crediting the Indiana Hoosier with possessing “one of the best toolsets in college baseball.” They contend the 21-year-old Gorski could become a 20-20 player and a plus center fielder in the majors, though he’ll have to overcome concerns regarding the length of his swing.
- Along with inking Gorski, the Pirates signed third baseman Jared Triolo for full slot value ($870K), Callis tweets. Triolo, out of the University of Houston, went to the Pirates in Comp Round B (No. 72 overall). Callis and Mayo had him at No. 146 going into the draft, noting, “He doesn’t have any plus tools or glaring flaws, and scouts love his makeup.”
- The Angels have signed second-rounder Kyren Parris, the team announced. Parris’ pick, No. 55, came with a $1.31MM slot value, but he received $1.4MM, Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs relays. McDaniel and colleague Eric Longenhagen rated the 17-year-old Parris as the draft’s 39th-best player, thanks in part to his speed, defensive skills at shortstop, and a “projectable” frame.
- The Rockies announced the signings of several picks, including second-round infielder Aaron Schunk. The 62nd pick, Schunk received the full slot value of $1.1MM, Callis reports. Callis and Mayo, who had Schunk 92nd in his class, write that the Georgia Bulldog could develop into a .270/20-HR hitter and a quality third baseman in the pros.
Pirates To Recall Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller will be recalled from Triple-A to start tomorrow’s game against the Braves, MLB.com’s Adam Berry tweets. The Pirates also announced that they’ve recalled Dovydas Neverauskas from Triple-A Indianapolis and optioned Alex McRae in his place, giving them a fresh arm in the bullpen.
Tomorrow will be the second big league start for Keller, long lauded as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects. The 23-year-old was promoted for his MLB debut against the Reds in late May and struggled through a shaky outing that saw him yield six runs in four innings. Since that time, he’s gone back to Indy and allowed two runs on four hits and five walks with 18 strikeouts in 11 innings of work — including 12 consecutive outs recorded via strikeout in his most recent outing.
Earlier this week, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington indicated that while Keller was an option to start Wednesday, the team would also look outside the organization. The Pirates, as Huntington explained, do not want to continually shuttle Keller back and forth between the Majors and Triple-A. Rather, the organizational preference is that when Keller comes back up, he simply remains at the MLB level. That’s far from a declaration that this is a permanent call to the big leagues for Keller, but it stands to reason that he’ll have the opportunity to prove that he is worthy of an extended look. Throwing well against a tough Braves lineup on the road in their hitter-friendly park tomorrow would be one such way to make an impression.
The Pirates’ rotation has significantly underperformed so far in 2019, with Chris Archer taking a notable step back and both Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams missing extended periods on the injured list. Keller is the type of high-upside arm who could provide a boost to a Pittsburgh club that still hopes to contend despite a recent slide in the standings. Huntington has previously spoken about a desire to upgrade the team’s bullpen, and earlier this morning, it was reported that the team could look to trade Corey Dickerson given the team’s glut of productive outfielders. Suffice it to say, there are plenty of moving parts in Pittsburgh, and the next several weeks will prove pivotal in determining the team’s direction at the trade deadline.
Report: Pirates’ “Preference” Is To Trade Corey Dickerson
The Pirates are interested in finding a trade partner to take outfielder Corey Dickerson, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Dickerson, 30, is earning $8.5MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
As we discussed recently upon Dickerson’s activation, the Pirates are facing obvious roster pressures in several areas. The club is currently carrying only three starters, allowing it to pad its relief corps and accommodate an extra position player, but that’s a temporary measure.
Dickerson was just brought back from the injured list, so he’s only six games into his season. In the interim, the club lost another left-handed-hitting corner piece in Lonnie Chisenhall. But it also welcomed back Gregory Polanco, struck paydirt on a low-cost deal with switch-hitting veteran Melky Cabrera, and saw youngster Bryan Reynolds (also a switch-hitter) burst onto the scene.
Cabrera is said to be drawing interest from “multiple contenders,” per Rosenthal. He is now slashing a cool .335/.375/.462 through 185 plate appearances. He’s not a good defender and won’t sustain a .370 BABIP, but certainly seems a worthwhile target as a bench bat. Cabrera’s low-cost, low-commitment contract situation ($1.15MM salary) is surely of appeal as well.
Rosenthal says that the Bucs “want to take another stab at contention before moving Cabrera and possibly others.” That makes sense, as the club isn’t yet buried in the division with more than six weeks to go until the trade deadline. But it’s hard to square that with the idea that the Pittsburgh org prefers to ship out Dickerson, who is a younger player with a better recent track record than Cabrera. Last year, Dickerson posted a 115 wRC+ and graded as a high end defender.
All in all, it’s a bit of an odd situation for the Pirates, who scrambled for outfielders and now find themselves in dire need of pitching. There isn’t much reason to think that a contender will part with a worthwhile, immediate rotation (or even relief) piece for one of these outfielders.
Cabrera may be the more cost-efficient option for the Bucs, but they will surely be selling low on Dickerson unless he goes on a tear over the next few weeks — in which case it’d be all the harder to move him unless the team is itself out of the race. Putting Polanco on the block might create some opportunities for meaningfully addressing the pitching staff, but he has had some ups and downs and that’d be a much more consequential decision.
Pirates Sign First-Rounder Quinn Priester
The Pirates have announced the signing of first-round pick Quinn Priester. He’ll earn $3.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).
Priester, an Illinois high-schooler, went with the 18th overall selection. The slot value is $3.48MM. He’ll forego a commitment to TCU to launch his professional career.
Entering the draft, most rankings had Priester slotted in just the range he was chosen. Fangraphs (17) and MLB.com (19) had him just ahead of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (20) and Baseball America (23).
While the BA crew ranked a few additional players above Priester, they still lauded his “excellent physical projection and advanced strike-throwing capabilities.” MLB.com cited his “athleticism and the ease of his arm action.” It seems all the physical tools are there for Priester and the Bucs’ player development system.
Pirates Place Jordan Lyles On 10-Day IL
The Pirates have placed righty Jordan Lyles on the 10-day injured list, per a club announcement. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by reliever Montana DuRapau.
Lyles is said to be dealing with left hamstring tightness. The muscle has given him issues of late, disrupting what had been an excellent start to the season.
After joining the Pirates on an affordable, one-year deal, Lyles turned in eight starts of 1.97 ERA pitching. But he stumbled in his next outing and soon thereafter reported hammy troubles. Lyles has permitted 16 earned runs in his past 18 2/3 frames.
Despite the recent downturn, there’s still plenty to like about the 28-year-old’s work to this point. He’s averaging more than a strikeout per nine for the first time in his career while sustaining the swinging-strike increase he has shown in recent years. Lyles isn’t throwing as hard as he did last year but has found more and more success by shelving his once heavily used sinker in favor of his four-seamer and curve.
It seems reasonable to hope that Lyles won’t require too long an absence, though he’d do well to ensure the problem is behind him. Trouble is, the Pirates are already dealing with some tough injury and performance issues in the rotation. Just what the team will do to fill in isn’t immediately clear. The Bucs are already on the look for innings from outside the organization.
Pirates Rumors: Kingham, Keller, Outfield, Vazquez
The Pirates’ rotation in 2019 has been unexpectedly weak. Injuries to Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams and some alarming regression for Chris Archer have overshadowed solid performances by Joe Musgrove and offseason signee Jordan Lyles. Longtime prospect Nick Kingham entered the year out of minor league options and struggled so greatly that the team begrudgingly designated him for assignment last week and now seems likely to lose the righty.
Pittsburgh isn’t currently certain who’ll start for the organization on Wednesday this week, but general manager Neal Huntington told reporters that the Pirates will “look externally” to see if there are any palatable options available (links via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Adam Berry of MLB.com). Top prospect Mitch Keller is a candidate to make that start, but the Bucs have already recalled and optioned Keller once this season. The next time Keller is called up to the Majors, Huntington noted, the team would like it to be a permanent promotion. Adding an external option would allow the team to give Keller a bit more time in Triple-A, where he has 100 1/3 total innings since last season, but the Bucs won’t find a more talented option than Keller to plug in for that Wednesday outing.
In the meantime, the Pirates will explore the trade market to see what kind of interest there is in Kingham. Huntington noted that players with that type of prospect pedigree “tend to get traded” if they’re designated for assignment and expressed optimism that he will “be able to get something for him” even in spite of his considerable 2019 struggles. Kingham allowed an incredible 38 runs on 54 hits and 17 walks in 34 2/3 innings to begin the 2019 season, but he has a solid Triple-A track record and was long viewed as a potential big league starter. A rebuilding club like the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals or Giants could be intrigued by seeing how he fares in a change of scenery. An injury-plagued team like the Angels or Athletics could make some sense, too.
Perhaps a more intriguing source of trade speculation surrounding the Pirates, however, resides in the outfield. Corey Dickerson returned from the IL to join a mix that already had Bryan Reynolds, Starling Marte and Melky Cabrera playing well. Gregory Polanco has posted roughly average numbers at the plate since returning from shoulder surgery and has a solid track record prior to this season. With all five healthy, it’ll be tough to sort out playing time Huntington unsurprisingly declined to go into specifics but did at least acknowledge the possibility of a trade, stating that while the Pirates like all five outfielder, they’re “always open to opportunities to make this club better.”
That said, with the team slipping in the National League Central, it’s only natural that there’ll be increased speculation about the possibility of trades in the coming weeks — particularly when dealing from a position of strength like the outfield. Moving an outfielder, even to another contender (probably not within the division) could potentially net some help for a pitching staff that hasn’t performed up to expectations so far. If the Pirates surge back into contention — they’re seven back in the NL Central and five and a half back of a Wild Card spot — moving a short-term piece like Dickerson for another veteran could boost the staff. If their slide in the standings worsens, the Bucs could even entertain offers on Marte, who is controlled through 2021 by way of a pair of club options ($11.5MM in 2020, $12.5MM in 2021). Doing so could reap prospect value while opening a long-term spot for the cost-controlled Reynolds.
Also of interest in a selling scenario would be whether the Pirates make standout closer Felipe Vazquez available, but the fact that he is cheaply controlled through the 2023 season would make it extremely difficult to bite the bullet on a deal. “The ask will be big, and they won’t move from it,” one rival executive told ESPN’s Buster Olney when asked about a potential Vazquez deal (subscription required).
That’s probably an understatement. Vazquez has a 2.30 ERA with 14.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 34.4 percent ground-ball rate in 27 1/3 innings so far in 2019. He’s being paid $4MM this year, $5.25MM in 2020 and $7.25MM in 2021 before the team will be able to decide on a pair of club options in 2022 and 2023 — both valued at $10MM. That’s four and a half seasons of control over Vazquez, who’ll turn 28 in July, for a shade under $35MM.
For the time being, it’s likely that the Bucs will find some kind of deal for Kingham (or that he’ll be claimed on waivers) and monitor the market for at least a potential spot-start option Wednesday. There’s sure to be more afoot over the next several weeks, as the Pirates will soon have to give a long-term audition to one of the game’s best overall prospects (Keller) and perhaps resolve an outfield logjam on the trade market. Whether that move is made with an eye toward 2019 or an eye toward 2020 and beyond will probably be dictated by the team’s performance in the near term.
Pirates Designate Nick Kingham For Assignment
Among a slew of roster moves this afternoon, the Pirates have designated former top-100 prospect Nick Kingham for assignment. The 27-year-old, who established residence on Pirates top ten lists for much of the decade, has been largely ineffective in 110 big-league innings since his MLB debut last summer.
Kingham’s main issue has been the gopher ball – he’s allowed over two per nine over that stretch – but the 6’5 righty’s also struggled to command the ball and keep it on the ground. His 91.4 average fastball velocity is down from the 92-94 MPH reported range in which he sat before his 2015 Tommy John surgery, and Kingham’s swinging strike rates and overall contact percentage against have also been trending in the wrong direction of late. He still sports some affinity for bat-missing, though, so it’s likely another organization will swoop in and attempt to nab the potential reclamation project.
The Pirate staff, currently minus Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Keone Kela, Nick Burdi, and Chris Stratton, was thin to begin and is now almost in shambles. Both Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove have been hammered in recent weeks, and the S.O.S. calls for Kingham, Steven Brault, and Rookie Davis were met mostly with deaf ears. The club may need to turn for good to top prospect Mitch Keller, who’s lately been lights out for AAA-Indianapolis, and hope for unlikely production from any number of sources if it’s to stay afloat in a very competitive NL Central.