Aaron Civale

Less than two months ago, conversations surrounding the Brewers’ rotation depth struck a wildly different tone than they do at present. Early in the 2025 campaign, Milwaukee’s injured list read more like a litany, and the team was so pressed for starting pitching that it swung a rare April trade of consequence, bringing in righty Quinn Priester from the Red Sox in exchange for a Competitive Balance draft pick and two prospects.

Fast forward six to seven weeks, and the Brewers have incurred some fan backlash for optioning righty Logan Henderson to Triple-A Nashville amid a brilliant start to his big league career. Fellow righty Chad Patrick might be the NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner at the moment — and he, too, could soon find himself optioned to Nashville. Manager Pat Murphy touched on the topic when asked by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel about how the Brewers plan to handle their rotation when Jose Quintana and Brandon Woodruff make their respective returns from the injured list within the next week or two.

Optioning Patrick wouldn’t be due to any concerns with his performance — far from it. The 26-year-old righty has never been a particularly touted prospect — he was acquired from the D-backs for journeyman infielder Jace Peterson and did not rank among Milwaukee’ top 30 prospects at Baseball America at any point — but has nevertheless emerged as a key piece of the pitching staff in 2025.

Patrick has pitched 57 2/3 innings and turned in a sterling 2.97 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.2% strikeout rate but a strong 7.5% walk rate. He’s probably going to have some regression in the home run department, based on his bottom-of-the-scale 26% ground-ball rate, a fair bit of hard contact allowed and a home park that’s quite conducive to the long ball, but that’s largely beside the point. Patrick’s production thus far has been nothing short of a godsend, and nothing in his performance would seem to dictate a demotion to the minor leagues.

As Murphy alluded to in his comments, however, such decisions aren’t always based on merit. The Brewers know all too well what it’s like to have a pitching staff stretched so thin that they need to go outside the organization for help. As already mentioned, they did just that within the first week of April. Teams try their best to avoid depleting depth and putting themselves in position to need to make that kind of move — which is how Patrick might well find himself in Nashville before long.

Milwaukee currently has Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale, Patrick and Priester as starters on the active roster. Quintana and Woodruff are nearing returns. Both will be plugged into the rotation. Quintana was terrific for the Brewers before hitting the IL with a shoulder impingement. He tells Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that he expects to be activated to start this Sunday. Woodruff has in the past pitched like an ace when healthy and is in the second season of a two-year, $17.5MM deal. He’s going to get the opportunity to show he can again be a top-of-the-rotation presence.

When Quintana returns, the Brewers can go to a five-man staff. Woodruff’s return would present more questions. There aren’t enough starting spots for the number of generally competitive or established arms in Milwaukee’s rotation — a problem that seemed unfathomable in early April.

Priester has been the “weakest” performer of the group, carrying a 4.23 ERA in 44 2/3 innings. His paltry 16.6% strikeout rate and hefty 11.9% walk rate aren’t a great combination, prompting metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.78) to cast a less favorable light on his performance. However, he’s also been doing his best work of late. Priester has a 2.76 ERA, 19.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate over his past three turns. He’s also down to only one minor league option year. Priester was optioned to Triple-A by the Red Sox at the end of camp but recalled by the Brewers following the early trade; since he spent fewer than 20 days in the minors, Priester didn’t actually burn through that option. Sending him down now for a period of 20 days or longer would exhaust that final option year.

That type of consideration typically doesn’t sit well with fans, but effective option management helps to preserve depth and avoid situations like the one the Brewers faced early in the season when they had more than an entire rotation’s worth of arms on the injured list — most of whom incurred their injuries in rapid succession. Preserving Priester’s final option beyond the current season carries some notable benefit, but the Brewers will obviously have to give some real thought to exhausting it anyhow.

Moving Priester to a swingman role is another option, but that would require either burning the final option year for Aaron Ashby or DL Hall or parting with Tyler Alexander entirely. Again, any of those scenarios will probably be considered, but come with a blend of short- and longer-term ramifications. Fans will surely bristle if the short-term considerations lead to Patrick following Henderson to Triple-A, but all MLB organizations are always toeing the line between maximizing short-term results and preserving long-term depth. That’s especially true of a cost-conscious Brewers club.

Whatever comes of the ostensible logjam, it’s also bearing in mind that it’s a short-term issue in and of itself. Injuries are inevitable, and if the Brewers somehow get to the trade deadline with the quintet of Peralta, Woodruff, Civale and Quintana healthy, there will probably be pitching-hungry teams inquiring about established, affordable veterans like Quintana and Civale, who’ll be free agents at season’s end.

Peralta, of course, will draw interest and present the Brewers with their latest decision on a cornerstone veteran whose club control is dwindling; they hold a club option over his 2026 season, after which he’ll be a free agent. In many regards, he’ll present the Brewers with similar decisions to the ones they’ve faced in the past on Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Willy Adames. They’ll surely have compelling trade offers this summer, in the offseason and at the 2026 deadline — or they could go the route they did with Adames: hang onto Peralta through the end of his control window and make him a qualifying offer.

None of this even touches on the presence of top prospect Jacob Misiorowski — one of the top young arms in all of professional ball. The 2022 second-rounder, who turned 23 last month, boasts a 1.60 ERA in 56 1/3 Triple-A innings. He’s averaging 97.4 mph on a four-seamer that can climb into triple digits and has fanned 32.2% of his opponents against a 10% walk rate. At some point, this summer, he’ll likely make his MLB debut. Injured lefty Nestor Cortes is a piece in this spiraling puzzle as well. He went on the injured list after just two starts due to a flexor strain but resumed playing catch earlier this month. Once he’s healthy, he’ll also be a rotation option.

The presence of Patrick, Henderson, Misiorowski, Priester, the already-optioned Tobias Myers and lefty Robert Gasser — on the mend from last year’s Tommy John surgery — is of extra importance with each of Woodruff, Quintana, Civale and Cortes reaching free agency at season’s end. (Quintana and Woodruff have mutual options, but it’s been more than a decade since any mutual option in all of MLB was exercised by both team and player.) It also gives the Milwaukee front office plenty of paths to consider at this year’s trade deadline. They could deal from their collection of established veterans in an effort to bring in some infield help and potentially backfill the rotation via in-house arms.

In all likelihood, there will be innings available for the entire contingent of young arms over the final two-thirds of the season. Regardless, they’ll all be in consideration for full-fledged rotation spots come 2026. That likely reliance on this group of young arms only makes it more understandable if the Brewers want to avoid burning the final option years on pitchers like Priester, Ashby and Hall, as that flexibility might be of greater utility next year when working with a younger staff.