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The Brewers’ Rotation Is Holding Up

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The Brewers have the best run differential in MLB. Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by 139 runs, putting them 14 runs clear of the second-place Yankees’ +125 gap. Milwaukee is coasting to another division title and sit half a game behind the Phillies for the #2 seed in the National League, which would give them a first-round bye in the postseason.

It’s not a shock that the Brewers are good. They’ve proven time and again they’re capable of outperforming a middling payroll to compete for a playoff spot. Yet few would’ve predicted they’d be this good: 24 games over .500 with the largest division lead in baseball. Milwaukee’s previous success was built largely around the three-headed rotation monster of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Between the Burnes trade and Woodruff’s shoulder injury, they’ve been forced to make do with a far less established rotation. Milwaukee’s rotation might not have the firepower it once did, yet it has held all the same.

Brewers starters are 12th in the majors with a 3.92 earned run average. That’s already an achievement considering the challenges of pitching at Miller Park, and they’ve been even better lately. Since the trade deadline, only the Astros and Tigers have a lower rotation ERA than Milwaukee does. Detroit’s mark is skewed by frequent use of openers; Tiger “starters” have an MLB-low 112 1/3 innings since the end of July. Milwaukee’s starters have tied for the third-most innings over that stretch (174 2/3), narrowly behind Houston and the Mets. For the past month and change, the Astros and Brewers have had the most valuable rotations in the league.

Not coincidentally, they were two of the league’s best teams last month. While Houston’s rotation turnaround has been a big story in its own right, Milwaukee’s rotation performance is probably more surprising. The Brewers signed Jakob Junis to take a season-opening rotation spot; he made one start, got hurt, and was eventually moved at the deadline. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser each blew out early in the season. Joe Ross and DL Hall each spent multiple months on the injured list.

The Brewers have given multiple starts to 13 different pitchers this year (15 if one includes the opener appearances by Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny). They’ve only had three pitchers top 50 innings working from the rotation in a Milwaukee uniform. Still, between a pair of unexpected contributors and two buy-low deadline pickups, they’re trending towards October with a settled starting five.

Peralta has headlined the group. He’s the team leader in starts (28) and innings (153 2/3). Peralta carries a 3.75 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout rate. While he can battle the home run ball at times, Peralta is one of the better pitchers in the league. He was supposed to deliver at the front of the rotation, and he has.

The pitchers coming after Peralta entered the year with a lot less fanfare. Colin Rea logged 124 2/3 innings over 26 appearances a year ago. He posted a 4.55 ERA with middling peripherals. When Milwaukee brought him back on a $4.5MM deal on November 2, the most notable aspect of the deal seemed to be its timing — a few days before the official opening of free agency. Rea secured a spot in the Opening Day rotation, likely as the #5 arm.

Through four months, Rea ranks narrowly behind Peralta for second on the team in innings. He has tossed a career-high 146 frames with a solid 3.70 ERA. His 8% swinging strike rate and 19.4% strikeout percentage still suggest he’s more of a back-end arm, but Rea has thus far avoided any regression in terms of run prevention. He has an ERA between 3.25 and 4.22 in every month of the season, welcome consistency for a rotation that has dealt with significant injuries.

Rea has been a surprisingly key contributor, though he at least started the year on the MLB roster. That wasn’t the case for Tobias Myers, who has gone from minor league signee to #3 starter. The 26-year-old righty was a prospect of some regard early in his career, performing well through Double-A. Cleveland acquired Myers in a regrettable trade that sent future top prospect Junior Caminero to the Rays. Triple-A hitters obliterated him in 2022, leading multiple teams to cut him loose without giving him a look at the big league level.

Myers signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee going into 2023. He spent most of the season in Double-A, where he racked up huge strikeout totals against generally younger opposition. Myers never got himself back on the prospect radar, but he earned a look from the Brewers in mid-April when the rotation was floundering.

Shuttled on and off the active roster through the end of May, Myers had a 5.40 ERA in seven appearances. That’s the kind of production expected from a minor league signee pressed into action. As recently as a few months ago, it wasn’t clear if the Brewers would keep him on the roster all season. Gasser’s injury in early June gave Myers another shot. He has seized it.

Over his past 15 starts, the rookie owns a 2.27 ERA while working nearly six innings per appearance. He has a roughly average 21.1% strikeout rate and is limiting walks to a 6.3% clip. Myers has unquestionably been aided by a meager .264 average on balls in play. He doesn’t miss enough bats to be an ace. Yet even with some level of inevitable regression, Myers looks like a polished strike-thrower who fits in the middle of a rotation. Were it not for an absolutely loaded field in the National League this year, Myers might have gotten some Rookie of the Year attention.

Effective as Rea and Myers had been early in the summer, Milwaukee’s front office understandably viewed the rotation as their priority at the deadline. Myers was early into what has become a three-month stretch of excellent play. Rea’s workload was a question mark. Milwaukee made one of the first pickups of note early in July, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. The night before the deadline, they flipped Junis and young outfielder Joey Wiemer (who’d been mostly squeezed out with the Brewers) to the Reds for Frankie Montas.

Both acquisitions were rebound hopefuls. Civale and Montas had each looked like upper mid-rotation arms at their best, but they’d fallen on harder times. Both pitchers had an ERA narrowly above 5.00 with their previous teams. They’re each allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in Milwaukee. Civale has a 3.72 mark across 48 1/3 innings as a Brewer. Montas carries a 3.82 ERA in 33 frames following the trade.

Civale’s underlying performance isn’t dramatically different from where it’d been in Tampa Bay. His strikeout and walk profile has gone in the wrong direction. He’s getting more ground-balls with the Brew Crew — somewhat diminishing the home run issues that really plagued him with the Rays — but he’s giving up more contact than ever before. As with Rea and Myers, the change is largely about his ball in play results. Opponents hit .312 on balls in play off Civale with the Rays; that’s down to .257 since the trade.

Montas has shown more obvious signs of improvement. His strikeout rate with the Reds sat a below-average 19%. It’s up to 22.7% in his brief stint in Milwaukee. His fastball velocity has climbed from the 94-95 range to sit more comfortably above 96 MPH this month. Montas’ velocity was steadily building throughout the year in Cincinnati, so perhaps he’d have found this level regardless of where he was traded. Even if that’s the case, the Brewers deserve credit for identifying him as a buy-low target.

All of a sudden, manager Pat Murphy has a number of options he can choose from in constructing a playoff rotation. Milwaukee is going to win the NL Central. They’ll at least play in a three-game Wild Card set. Winning that (or tracking down one of the Dodgers or Phillies for a bye) would guarantee at least a five-game Division Series.

Peralta is the obvious call to pitch the first game. Myers’ recent form probably gives him a leg up as a Game 2 starter, though that could be determined by how well he finishes the regular season. Montas may not be all the way back to the peak he showed with the A’s, but he’s pitching well enough to be a fine choice for either Game 2 or 3. That’d likely leave Murphy to choose between Civale and Rea for a potential fourth game, perhaps in tandem with a multi-inning relief appearance from Hall.

It still may not be an elite starting staff, but it’s hardly a liability. A shorter series will allow Murphy to leverage his excellent relief group more heavily. Late in close games, the scales should tip in Milwaukee’s favor. The rotation now looks strong enough to get them there.

MLBTR Podcast: Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Who gets traded from the Blue Jays at the deadline? (27:55)
  • What will the Mariners do to take advantage on their stellar rotation and make a run for their first World Series appearance? Also, should the Mariners trade J.P. Crawford for a proven hitter? (33:30)
  • Do you think there’s a chance the Braves make Max Fried a legitimate offer to keep him this winter? (39:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Rays Trade Aaron Civale To Brewers

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The Brewers are kicking off their summer trade season with a deal to bring in some much-needed rotation help, announcing the acquisition of right-hander Aaron Civale from the Rays in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Milwaukee designated righty Taylor Clarke for assignment in a corresponding move.

It’s one of the first notable trades of the 2024 season — one that addresses a key need for the Brewers (rotation depth) while netting some longer-term value for a Rays club that has multiple arms nearing a return from injury. Right-hander Shane Baz’s rehab from 2022 Tommy John surgery is effectively wrapped up, while southpaw Jeffrey Springs is nearing a return from his own Tommy John procedure, performed last April. Righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure last July, is further behind that pair but is now one year removed from his surgery.

With those arms nearing a return that’ll slot them in alongside Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot, the Rays have reportedly been open to dealing some veteran rotation help — with Civale and Littell the primary names among the reported possibilities. It bears emphasizing that there is no indication Tampa Bay is prepared to embark on a full-scale rebuild or notable summer sell-off. The organization surely feels that moving Civale (and potentially still listening on Littell and Eflin) is a matter of trading from a position of strength. The Rays exist in a perpetual state of both “buyer” and “seller,” regularly flipping veterans with dwindling levels of club control (such as Civale) in exchange for younger and more controllable talent.

While the Rays are currently flush with viable rotation candidates, the same cannot be said for a Brewers squad that has been hammered by injuries in 2024. Wade Miley underwent Tommy John surgery early in the season, and well-regarded pitching prospect Robert Gasser followed suit last month after impressing through his first five big league starts (2.57 ERA). DL Hall, acquired from the Orioles in the offseason Corbin Burnes trade, has been out since April with a knee sprain. Righty Joe Ross is on the 60-day injured list with a back strain.

The Brewers, who recently acquired Dallas Keuchel in a cash swap with the Mariners (and have received one rough start and a second sharper outing from the former Cy Young winner), have already used 15 different starting pitchers this season. Civale will make 16. At the moment, Milwaukee has Freddy Peralta, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea and Tobias Myers in the rotation alongside Keuchel. Rea and Myers have exceeded any expectations, combining for 25 starts (14 for Rea, 11 for Myers) while both sporting earned run averages well south of 4.00. They’ve been rotation saviors for first-year skipper Pat Murphy, but some reinforcements were known to be a target for Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold and his staff with the trade deadline now just 27 days away.

While it feels like most pitchers thrive and unlock a new gear upon being traded to the Rays organization, that hasn’t been the case for Civale. Acquired late last July in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland, Civale came to the Rays with two and a half years of club control remaining and a strong track record with the Guardians. The 2016 third-rounder had battled his share of injury troubles but typically been good to great when healthy. In parts of five seasons, he gave Cleveland 430 innings of 3.77 ERA ball, all coming out of the rotation. He averaged 5 2/3 innings per outing, punched out a slightly below-average 21.1% of his opponents and limited walks at an excellent 6.1% clip.

With Tampa Bay, Civale has struggled to keep his ERA down. He’s worked to a 5.17 ERA in 132 1/3 frames dating back to last year’s deadline. That unsightly mark comes despite the fact that Civale has notably improved his strikeout rate (24.7%) even as the league-average strikeout rate has declined. He’s generally maintained his strong command, too (6.5% walk rate).

However, Civale has become increasingly homer-prone, yielding an average of 1.56 round-trippers per nine innings pitched — a sizable uptick from the 1.19 HR/9 he averaged in Cleveland. He’s also been plagued by a spike in his average on balls in play (despite Tampa Bay’s strong defense). It’s all added up to tank Civale’s strand rate and lead to more runners crossing the plate, even as metrics like xFIP and SIERA feel he’s been a comparable pitcher to his Cleveland days from a skill standpoint.

Acquiring Civale is something of a roll of the dice by the Brewers. Adding any homer-prone pitcher and plugging him into the Brewers’ homer-happy American Family Field is not without risk. That said, Milwaukee also has a reputation for maximizing pitcher performance, just as the Rays and Guardians do. The Brewers likely have their own tweaks and slight changes to game-planning that they feel can help get Civale back into his Cleveland form. Failing that, he at least ought to provide some steady back-of-the-rotation innings.

For a budget-conscious team like the Brewers, Civale surely holds some extra appeal. He’s earning a reasonable $4.9MM in 2024, with about $2.34MM of that sum yet to be paid out. The Brewers will assume the remainder of that tab. They’ll also control Civale through the 2025 season via arbitration, making him a likely multi-year member of the rotation. He’ll be due one final raise, though with his slow start to the season, his earning power via that process will be relatively suppressed even if he engineers a turnaround with the Brew Crew.

Barrios will give the Rays yet another talented infield defender to plug into the system. The Venezuelan-born 20-year-old is already in High-A and has handled the level quite well despite facing older competition. In 60 games (252 plate appearances), Barrios is slashing .317/.361/.423 (121 wRC+) with a homer, 17 doubles, two triples, 16 steals (in 22 attempts), a 5.2% walk rate and a tiny 9.5% strikeout rate.

Entering the season, Baseball America pegged Barrios 26th in Milwaukee’s system. He sat No. 21 on MLB.com’s list of the top 30 Brewers prospects at the time of the swap, and Keith Law of The Athletic listed him just outside the Brewers’ top-20 farmhands heading into the season. Barrios’ strong defensive skills and potential to be a plus glove at shortstop have made him a prospect of some note in Milwaukee’ system even as he’s struggled offensively in his first three pro seasons.

That well-regarded glove now looks all the more intriguing with Barrios hitting well against more advanced pitching in High-A. He’ll likely slot into the middle of the Rays’ top 30 or so prospects moving forward. Barrios won’t do anything to improve the Rays’ chances in 2024 (unless he’s included in a subsequent trade for help in other areas), but by late 2025 or early 2026, he could push for a big league debut if he’s able to continue this offensive breakout. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until the 2025-26 offseason, so the Rays needn’t worry about adding him to the 40-man roster anytime soon.

While it’s the first notable trade of the season for both teams, it’s not likely to be the last. The Brewers could still use some rotation help and have an enviable stash of young outfielders that will continue to pique the interest of other clubs. The Rays opened one rotation spot, likely for Baz, but still have another prominent arm (Springs) on the mend with another on the horizon (Rasmussen). They’re currently three games back in the AL Wild Card race, so a full sell-off should not be expected (barring a protracted losing streak), but their stock of arms will draw interest and provide them the opportunity to either restock their farm (as they did in this deal) or add some big league help at another area of need as the deadline draws nearer.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Civale had been traded to Milwaukee. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Brewers were sending a minor league infielder to Tampa Bay. The Post’s Joel Sherman first reported that Barrios was the return in the 1-for-1 swap.

Rays Could Make Multiple Starters Available On Trade Market

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The 40-41 Rays are one of many key teams to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws near. While they’re buried in the American League East and unlikely to close their current 10.5-game deficit, they’re also only four games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. At the same time, Tampa Bay could soon find itself with a growing number of big league starters — more than it has room to plug into its rotation.

Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will be ready to rejoin the rotation before long; both pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgery — Baz’s performed in late 2022 and Springs’ performed early last season. Baz already completed a minor league rehab assignment and has continued building up in Triple-A.

Once regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game, the 25-year-old Baz got out to a rough start during his rehab stint but has now rattled off five starts with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for several weeks as well but has yet to pitch more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Prior to his Tommy John procedure, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the latest in a long line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.

Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a trade that sent catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. At the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — but Springs unfortunately went under the knife just three starts into the 2023 campaign.

With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure just under one year ago — the Rays indeed have a mounting stock of arms. The Athletic trio notes in their report that of the team’s current starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be available in trades. Both pitchers are in their second year of arbitration eligibility and controlled through the 2025 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired last summer in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is earning $4.9MM this year. Littell, yet another product of the Rays’ almost comical hidden-gem factory (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is earning just $1.8MM.

Of the two, Littell is enjoying the stronger season but also has the shorter track record. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly average 22% strikeout rate against an exceptional 4.3% walk rate. Since the Rays took the former starter-turned-reliever and plugged him back into a rotation role last July, he’s given them 27 starts with a 3.98 earned run average, 20.2% strikeout rate and even more impressive 3.6% walk rate. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers.)

Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone as the team had hoped when acquiring him last year. He’s posted strong strikeout and walk rates alike, but his sharp K-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up home runs. The 29-year-old righty has started 26 games for Tampa Bay dating to last summer’s trade but logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Despite upping his strikeout rate from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and maintaining his terrific command (6.1% walk rate in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 with his former club to 5.26 with his current one. After yielding 1.19 homers per nine frames in five seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 big flies per nine since heading to St. Petersburg.

There hasn’t been a major change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing more sliders this year at the expensive of his cutter, but it’s not an overwhelming change in usage rates and the righty is still using the same blend of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as well.

Despite Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no shortage of teams interested in adding him and/or Littell to their staff for the next season and a half. Both arms are affordable — particularly for teams with CBT concerns — and there established rotation arms in general will be in short supply. That’s all the more true given recent injuries to trade candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm shortage could position the Rays to deal from their current rotation and then replace whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s returning from injury.

Darragh McDonald and I discussed this possibility with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, also touching on the possibility of the Rays drawing interest in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably more important to the team’s staff than either Civale or Littell, but he’s also the most expensive starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free agency prior to the 2023 season. It’s a heavily backloaded pact that will pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty number by the Rays’ typically thrifty standards. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and able to join young arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in next year’s rotation, the always cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listen on Eflin while pondering a similar gamut to the Littell/Civale scenario laid out in The Athletic’s report.

It bears emphasizing that even if the Rays end up selling — or, as they often have in the past, operating on both the “buy” and “sell” side of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the front office is not interested in a large-scale rebuild. Even if the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will be to reload and take aim and contending again in 2025. Given the wealth of young and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that keeps churning out interesting young hitters, the Rays likely feel they have the foundation of a contending club largely in place.

As is so often the case this time of year, the Rays appear positioned as one of the teams who will in many ways dictate a fair bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether they rattle off several wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card position, maintain the status quo as a bubble team or drop further down the standings, their slate of rehabbing quality arms gives them the flexibility to shop current big league arms — be it for other big leaguers in areas of need or near-MLB prospects who can help in 2025.

Guardians Trade Aaron Civale To Rays

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3:30pm: The Guardians and Rays have both formally announced the trade. It’s a straight one-for-one swap.

2:33pm: The Rays and Guardians are in agreement on a trade sending right-hander Aaron Civale from Cleveland to Tampa Bay, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo is headed back to Cleveland in the deal.

Civale, 28, is in the midst of a fine season and earning just $2.6MM with another two years of club control remaining beyond the 2023 season. The Guardians have been mulling the idea of shopping him, given their need for offense, their rich stockpile of pitching talent, and the general demand for rotation help throughout the league.

The Rays, needing rotation help with Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen falling to season-ending injuries — Tommy John surgery and flexor surgery, respectively — have been in the market for rotation help throughout the month. They previously had interest in Jordan Montgomery before his trade to the Rangers and in Cubs righty Marcus Stroman before Chicago won eight straight games and went from expected seller to potential buyer.

Civale will fill that need for the Rays, stepping into the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley. The Rays have been regularly deploying bullpen games and using openers since Springs and Rasmussen went down, but Civale will give them a conventional — and quite strong — five-man rotation moving forward. He’s sitting on a 2.34 ERA in 77 innings this season, and while the right-hander’s below-average 19% strikeout rate, tiny .242 average on balls in play and huge 82.7% strand rate all make that ERA seem bound for some regression, he’s nonetheless a solid big league starter.

In 433 career innings, Civale touts a 3.77 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate. While he doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater, Civale has long boasted excellent command, limited hard contact well enough and posted enough swinging-strikes with his versatile repertoire to find plenty of success. He uses a cutter as his primary fastball but also has a traditional four-seamer and a sinker in his quiver.

Civale’s go-to breaking pitch has been a curveball that has graded as an excellent offering throughout his career. Opponents have batted just .182/.215/.299 in the 358 times the right-hander has finished off a plate appearance with that pitch — including a .186/.205/.302 showing in 2023. A hefty 36.3% of those plate appearances have yielded a strikeout.  Civale will throw very occasional sliders and changeups as well, but his curve functions as far and away his most frequent offspeed/breaking offering.

Civale is a clear upgrade to the Rays’ staff and could help them through the 2025 season, but he’s not without his own red flags and durability concerns. He’s avoided major injury and hasn’t had any surgeries, but Civale has never topped the 164 2/3 innings he pitched in the minors back in 2017 — his first full season as a professional. Since that time, he’s been on the injured list (minors and majors alike) with a litany of issues, including a lat strain, shoulder tightness, a wrist sprain, a finger sprain, forearm inflammation and an oblique strain (earlier this season).

There’s little doubting that he’s a quality performer when healthy, but Civale has only reached 100 innings in one Major League season and has only twice reached 20 starts. On the other hand, Civale’s frequent trips to the injured list have stunted his earning power in arbitration. He’s earning just $2.6MM this season, and his subsequent pair of arbitration raises will be based off that sum, which should tamp down his earnings a bit further (at least relative to other starters throughout the game).

In exchange for those two and a half seasons of affordable control, the Rays will  part with one of the top bats in their system. Manzardo, 23, was Tampa Bay’s second-round pick in 2021 and quickly hit his way onto top-100 prospect rankings throughout the sport. He’s had a rough go in his first run at Triple-A as a 22-year-old, hitting just .238/.342/.442 with 11 homers in 313 plate appearances. Manzardo is walking at a huge 13.4% clip, however, and has a lower-than-average 20.8% strikeout rate despite facing older and more experienced competition. He’s also just one season removed from hitting a combined .327/.426/.617 with nearly as many walks (59) as strikeouts (65) between High-A and Double-A.

Manzardo entered the season as a consensus top-100 prospect, and even with a lackluster showing in Triple-A so far he’s still quite highly touted. He ranks as the game’s No. 31 prospect at FanGraphs, No. 37 prospect at MLB.com and No. 69 at Baseball America on each publications midseason, post-draft rankings. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen writes in his scouting report that “every aspect” of Manzardo’s profile at the plate is plus, with the exception of his raw power, which is closer to average. He’s lauded for keen strike zone knowledge, consistent hard contact, an all-fields approach, his bat control and a potentially plus-plus hit tool that should allow him to hit for a high average with high-end on-base percentages.

It’s not yet clear when Manzardo will get his first big league opportunity, but it won’t be immediately. He’s been on the minor league injured list since early this month with a shoulder issue, though Cleveland clearly doesn’t believe it to be a major concern. He’ll be a candidate for a call-up late in the season and certainly will have a chance to break the Opening Day roster for the Guardians in 2024.

Since Cleveland isn’t getting an immediate big leaguer in return, there’s little doubting that this move hurts their chances of squeaking out a postseason berth in 2023. The American League Central has been the game’s most feeble division all year, and Cleveland made this trade of one of its best starters despite the fact that Shane Bieber was recently placed on the 60-day injured list and despite the fact that the Guards are only a half-game behind the Twins in the standings. That speaks volumes about how the front office views the club’s chances of faring in a potential postseason series even if they’d managed to overtake a middling and de facto first-place Twins club.

With Civale out of the picture, the Guardians’ rotation will consist of Noah Syndergaard and rookies Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. The latter trio has all found immediate success in the Majors, and each is generally living up to his own top prospect billing. The hope for Cleveland will be that righty Cal Quantrill can return from his current bout of shoulder inflammation sooner than later. Both Bieber and right-hander Triston McKenzie are on the 60-day IL and aren’t expected back anytime soon. Depth options in Triple-A include Cody Morris, Joey Cantillo, Hunter Gaddis and Chris Vallimont — all of whom are on the 40-man roster.

The acquisition of Manzardo also has some implications for breakout Guardians star Josh Naylor, who’s turned in an excellent .308/.347/.504 slash and 15 homers this year. Naylor has spent the bulk of his time at first base, but he could well be pushed to an outfield corner whenever Manzardo is called up for his debut. Manzardo is widely regarded as a first-base-only prospect, whereas Naylor has his share of experience in the outfield. It’s possible the two could eventually split the first base and designated hitter duties, but Cleveland also has veteran Josh Bell currently playing on a two-year deal. Bell can turn down a player option for 2024 and return to free agency this winter, but his underwhelming .233/.319/.385 slash makes that feel rather unlikely.

Positional alignment to the side, the Guardians have clearly been focused on adding a controllable bat to their system for some time now, just as the Rays have been looking for some quality, affordable innings to round out the rotation behind a strong quartet. In that sense, today’s one-for-one swap fills a goal for both parties and allows each to deal from a position of depth in order to satiate that need. The Rays get the more immediate boost to their roster, but the hope among Cleveland brass is surely that Manzardo will be holding down a key spot in the lineup long after Civale would’ve otherwise reached free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.

Guardians Have Considered Making Aaron Civale Available

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The Guardians’ rotation has been ravaged by injury this season, with right-handers Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale and Cal Quantrill all spending significant time on the injured list. They’ve already added Noah Syndergaard to help patch things over. Civale is healthy and pitching well right now, however, and the Guardians have at least pondered the possibility of selling high on him if it means acquiring a controllable young hitter, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Cleveland has little appetite to trade prospects for a rental acquisition at this point, Meisel further notes.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at Civale’s trade candidacy two weeks ago, outlining the reasons he’d draw interest (strong results, affordable $2.6MM salary, two-plus seasons of club control remaining) and the reasons the Guardians could be reluctant to move the 28-year-old righty (an otherwise young rotation with workload concerns, injuries to other key starters, a desire to remain competitive in a weak AL Central, and that remaining club control that piques others’ interest). Little has changed in the equation since Anthony wrote that piece, perhaps with the exception of Civale’s ERA, which has continued to drop. Civale has taken the ball four times since that was written, and he’s posted a 1.85 ERA in 24 1/3 frames — dropping his season-long ERA from 2.56 to a stellar 2.34.

There are reasons to be skeptical of Civale’s ability to continue at quite such a strong pace. His career-low 19% strikeout rate is below the league average, and both his .242 average on balls in play and 82.7% strand rate seem bound to regress. He entered the season with respective marks of .281 and 72.3% in those areas. He’s also seen just 5.6% of his fly-balls turn into home runs, which is less than half the 12.5% league average and the 14% mark he carried into the current season.

Even when factoring for some expected regression, however, Civale is still a quality big league pitcher. He’s logged 430 innings in his career and touts a 3.77 ERA. Civale has regularly showed strong command, which has helped him limit hard contact at better-than-average levels. There are durability concerns, as he’s never reached 130 innings in a Major League season and never topped the combined 164 2/3 innings he pitched in the minors back in 2017 — his first full professional season. Civale has been on the minor league and big league injured list with a variety of injuries, including a lat strain, shoulder tightness, a finger sprain, a wrist sprain, forearm inflammation and, most recently, an oblique strain. It’s a lengthy list, but also one that notably does not include any surgeries.

Looking around the league, there’s no shortage of contenders seeking starting pitching — particularly affordable arms with multiple years of club control remaining. Not all of those clubs, however, are in position to deal a big league bat with multiple years of control remaining himself. Two weeks ago, Anthony listed both the D-backs and Orioles as teams brimming with young position players who could make such a swap. Both remain logical fits, as do the Cardinals and the Reds, to name a couple more.

Cleveland has a wealth of pitching talent, with rookies Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams currently finding success in the rotation. Bieber, who might’ve been a trade candidate this month were it not for a right elbow injury that sent him to the 60-day IL, is controlled through the 2024 season. He’s due a raise on this year’s $10MM salary, however, and could potentially be moved over the winter. Triston McKenzie (through 2026), Cal Quantrill (through 2025) and Peyton Battenfield (through 2029) all have multiple years of club control remaining beyond the current season. Trades of Civale and/or (in the offseason) Bieber could potentially yield additional pitching talent, and the Guards have numerous other yet-to-debut prospects, including Joey Cantillo, Tanner Burns and the again-injured Daniel Espino.

The Guardians’ Other Potential Rotation Trade Chip

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The Guardians have made a habit of moving productive veteran starting pitchers over the past few seasons. Cleveland’s excellent pitching development pipeline has allowed them to consistently backfill the rotation with younger, cheaper starters while adding other MLB talent in trades that sent Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger elsewhere.

Cleveland graduated another trio of top young pitching talents this year. Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen have all gotten to the big leagues and found immediate success. There was some related speculation about the Guardians dealing former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber this summer as a means of adding upper level hitting talent.

That no longer appears viable. Bieber is being shut down from throwing for a couple weeks because of forearm/elbow discomfort. While the club is optimistic he won’t require surgery, he’ll be on the injured list beyond the August 1 trade deadline. It’s hard to envision another team sending Cleveland anything approaching commensurate value for Bieber right now. An offseason deal or move at next year’s trade deadline (when he’d be an impending free agent) is the likelier scenario.

If Cleveland still has interest in balancing the roster by cashing in a starting pitcher, Aaron Civale now stands out as their top candidate. The 28-year-old righty has been an effective mid-rotation arm over parts of five big league campaigns, at least on a rate basis.

The former third-round draftee has started 73 games at the MLB level. He’s worked 410 2/3 innings of 3.88 ERA ball. Civale 21.3% strikeout rate and 42.5% grounder percentage are a hair below league average, but he’s a plus strike thrower who tends to avoid hard contact. While it’s not an overpowering profile, a healthy Civale has been a quality #3/4 option in a rotation.

Civale hasn’t logged the kind of workload typically associated with an innings eater. Some of that is beyond his control. He wasn’t an established MLB starter until late in the 2019 season. He stayed healthy in 2020 but the season was shortened, limiting everyone to 12-13 starts. Civale has lost chunks of the last three years to injury, however, only topping 100 MLB frames once.

In 2021, it was a sprained right middle finger that cost him two months. He lost a few weeks apiece to glute soreness, a right wrist sprain and forearm soreness last season. This year, a left oblique strain took him out of action for around seven weeks between mid-April and the start of June.

While the nagging health issues have kept Civale from amassing a huge workload, they haven’t impacted his per-start performances. His 10 starts this year look much the same as his overall body of work. He owns a 2.65 ERA through 57 2/3 frames, just under six innings per start. Opponents are only hitting .245 on balls in play, which is likely to tick back up closer to the .281 career mark he carried into 2023. Once a few more batted balls drop for hits, Civale should project as the upper-3.00s ERA type he has been in his career.

His 19.7% strikeout rate is narrowly a personal low but not dramatically off his previous level. Despite the slight dip in whiffs, Civale is throwing a little harder this year than in seasons past. He’s averaging 88 MPH on his cutter and narrowly above 92 MPH on his sinker and four-seam, all of which are slightly above his previous career highs.

Those are relatively minor variations. Civale isn’t a burgeoning ace, but he’s a good major league pitcher. He throws strikes and mixes four pitches effectively to keep off barrels. He is solid against hitters from both sides of the plate, keeping lefties to a career .227/.278/.400 line and same-handed opponents to a .255/.307/.439 slash. Aside from the aforementioned injury concerns, the Northeastern product looks like a solid middle or back-end starter.

There’s value in stability. That’s especially true given his affordability. Civale is playing this season on a modest $2.6MM arbitration salary. He’ll go through that process twice more before reaching free agency after the 2025 campaign.

That control window means Cleveland doesn’t simply have to take the best offer this summer. Even as one of the game’s lowest-payroll franchises, the Guardians could retain Civale without issue financially. Yet they’re likely to have a fair bit of starting pitching depth going into next season, particularly if they hold onto Bieber.

Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill will hopefully be past injury-riddled ’23 campaigns. Bibee, Allen and Williams could all be rotation fixtures, perhaps with higher upside than Civale possesses. It is tough to rely on Daniel Espino at this point given his shoulder woes, but the 22-year-old righty entered this season as one of the sport’s most exciting pitching prospects.

Cleveland isn’t abandoning hope on 2023. They couldn’t have drawn up a worse weekend to start the second half, though. The Guardians were swept by the Rangers while Minnesota swept the A’s. That wasn’t wholly unexpected — the Twins were playing the worst team in MLB while Cleveland matched up against one of the best — but it dropped the Guardians 2 1/2 games back in a division they almost certainly have to win to make the playoffs.

That’s hardly insurmountable, though the club has never really gotten rolling this season. That’s in large part due to an offense that has scored more runs than only the A’s, Royals and Tigers. José Ramírez and Josh Naylor are the only Cleveland players with 100+ plate appearances and above-average offensive production.

Cleveland’s outfield has been especially troublesome. Steven Kwan has been fine but not recaptured his stellar rookie form. Myles Straw is providing next to nothing at the plate for a second straight season. Will Brennan has been inconsistent as a rookie.

There aren’t a ton of clear sellers this deadline season. That could lead to a few more “baseball” trades, deals between hopeful or fringe contenders to address respective areas of weakness. Civale would be Cleveland’s clearest option to market rotation help to another win-now team that could make a surplus outfielder available. Speculatively speaking, the Orioles (Kyle Stowers) and D-Backs (Jake McCarthy/Dominic Fletcher) could offer intriguing upper level outfielders as part of a Civale package.

Whether Cleveland pulls off a deal of this nature remains to be seen. Bieber was the higher-profile and more enticing trade candidate at this time last week. With that no longer plausible, Civale could be the next target for other teams eyeing the Guardians’ rotation depth.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians Place Cal Quantrill On Injured List

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The Guardians have placed starter Cal Quantrill on the 15-day injured list due to shoulder inflammation, tweets Zack Meisel of the Athletic. Aaron Civale was reinstated from the IL to take his spot in the rotation. Cleveland also placed first baseman Josh Bell on the paternity list and recalled rookie infielder Brayan Rocchio from Triple-A Columbus.

Quantrill received an injection in his shoulder and will be shut down from throwing for a few days, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com (Twitter link). It’s not clear how long he’ll be out of action, though the shutdown could suggest it’s more than the minimal two weeks. While the Guardians will clearly be disappointed to lose one of their starters, the injury could explain some uncharacteristic struggles.

The right-hander has allowed a 5.61 ERA over 11 starts. Quantrill had kept his ERA below or around 3.00 in each of the preceding two seasons. This year’s velocity isn’t any different but he’s missing bats on a career-low 7.2% of his pitches. Quantrill’s past two starts have been particularly ineffective, as he’s respectively served up six and eight runs while failing to get out of the fifth inning.

In Quantrill’s place, the Guardians are welcoming back two veteran arms in the coming days. Civale starts tonight in Minnesota. It’s his first appearance since April 7. He missed just under two months with an oblique strain. Civale posted a 4.92 ERA in 20 starts last season.

Right-hander Triston McKenzie is listed as the probable starter for Sunday afternoon’s matchup with the division-leading Twins. McKenzie hasn’t pitched in the majors this season thanks to a Spring Training shoulder strain. He’s made three rehab starts with Columbus, allowing five runs in 10 1/3 frames. McKenzie is on the 60-day injured list and will need to return to the 40-man roster. Cleveland will have to make a corresponding move in that regard on Sunday.

Guardians Notes: Naylor, Valera, Rotation

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The Guardians briefly added top catching prospect Bo Naylor to the big league roster as the 27th man in yesterday’s doubleheader, but he’s already been sent back to Triple-A Columbus and will continue to get regular playing time there, it seems. Cleveland’s offense is out to a dismal start to the 2023 season, and the catching corps, in particular, has been quite poor at the plate so far.

Naylor’s .257/.391/.507 slash in Triple-A Columbus is strong, but manager Terry Francona noted to Bill Ladson of MLB.com that Naylor’s throwing numbers in Columbus have been rough. He’s just 7-for-49 in cutting down base thieves this year (14.3%). Francona added that some of that could be due to minor league pitchers doing some experimenting of their own (perhaps at the cost of some quickness to the plate), it seems the organization would understandably still like to see some improvement in that aspect of his game. To his credit, Naylor had a much stronger 32% caught-stealing rate in the minors last year.

One other near-MLB-ready prospect who could come up this year in hopes of providing some offensive help will be sidelined for the second time this year. Outfielder George Valera, who missed the first seven weeks of the season due to hamate surgery, is heading back to the injured list after just five games, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. This time, the 22-year-old is dealing with a strained hamstring. It’s not yet clear how long he’s expected to miss.

Valera went 3-for-16 at the Triple-A level in his brief five-game activation between IL stints. Last year’s .221/.324/.448 output in Triple-A doesn’t immediately stand out, but that also came as a 21-year-old against much more advanced competition and was only across 179 plate appearances. Valera spent the majority of the season in Double-A Akron, where he posted a heartier .264/.367/.470 batting line. Between those two stops, he mashed 24 homers over the course of 132 games.

Valera ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at MLB.com (No. 51) and Baseball America (No. 72) heading into the season, and the organization surely hoped he could hit his way into the big league mix before too long. Health hasn’t cooperated to this point, though the Guardians have at least avoided injuries to their position player corps at the big league level.

That’s not the case on the pitching side of things, where Cleveland has faced prolonged absences for both Triston McKenzie (teres major strain) and Aaron Civale (oblique strain). McKenzie embarked on a minor league rehab assignment over the weekend and will make at least one more outing before the team considers activating him, writes Hoynes, citing Francona. The Guards are aiming to build both righties up to around five innings and 80 to 90 pitches before reinstating either from the injured list.

McKenzie’s first rehab outing lasted three innings and 52 pitches; he can’t be activated until May 29 at the earliest, due to his status on the 60-day injured list. Civale also pitched three innings in a rehab game last week.

As it stands, the Guardians only have one clear opening in the rotation. Righty Hunter Gaddis is up from Columbus to make today’s start in place of the injured Peyton Battenfield. One of McKenzie or Civale could step into that spot, but Cleveland has Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and thriving rookies Tanner Bibee and Logan T. Allen also in the rotation currently. Situations such as this tend to work themselves out — injuries are inevitable on the pitching front — but at some point it’s possible the Guards will need to make the tough call to send one of Bibee or Allen back to Columbus. Speculatively speaking, Cleveland could also look into a six-man rotation or perhaps bump a more established starter like Quantrill or Civale to the bullpen, but however it shakes out there’ll be some decisions on the pitching front in the near future.

Guardians Place Aaron Civale On Injured List, Select Peyton Battenfield

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The Guardians announced Monday that they’ve placed right-hander Aaron Civale on the 15-day injured list due to a strained left oblique and selected the contract of right-hander Peyton Battenfield from Triple-A Columbus. Righty Triston McKenzie was moved from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Battenfield. That doesn’t change the projected return date for McKenzie, it should be noted; the “60-day” term of his IL stint begins with his original IL placement and is not reset upon being transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day.

Civale, 27, was excellent in his first start of the season, tossing seven shutout frames against Seattle. The Mariners got their revenge over the weekend, however, tagging Civale for four runs on nine hits and a walk through 5 2/3 innings. Civale didn’t depart that start with an injury, but it seems something was amiss physically for the righty during that outing. This will be his fourth stint on the injured list dating back to Opening Day 2022, as he missed time last season due to glute, wrist and forearm injuries.

Those injuries cost Civale roughly 12 starts last season, limiting him to 97 innings and likely contributing to his lackluster 4.92 ERA on the season. Across parts of three prior campaigns, he’d given Cleveland a combined 3.76 ERA in 256 innings, stepping up to seemingly seize a long-term spot in the team’s rotation. The early signs in 2022 were promising, as Civale’s fastball had crept up nearly a mile per hour on average, but he’ll now be shelved for a yet-to-be announced period of time.

With Civale joining McKenzie on the injured list, the Guards are now down two of their top five starters. They’ll look to Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill, Zach Plesac and Hunter Gaddis to hold down the first four spots in the rotation, with Battenfield and long reliever Xzavion Curry the favorites to step into Civale’s now-vacated spot on the staff.

The 25-year-old Battenfield, acquired from the Rays in a trade sending Jordan Luplow back to Tampa Bay, has made 29 starts in Triple-A across the past two seasons, logging a combined 3.63 ERA with a 16.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. Battenfield isn’t a hard thrower, sitting in the low 90s with his fastball, but he leans on a wide variety of secondary offerings, keeping hitters off balance with a deep five-pitch repertoire.

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