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10 NL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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With the regular season approaching, we’re taking a look at hitters and pitchers from each division who are seeking bounce-back years in 2020. We’ve already covered the American League, so let’s head to the Senior Circuit and begin with 10 NL East hitters hoping to rebound from subpar 2019 showings this year.

Didi Gregorius, SS, Phillies:

With a one-year, $14MM guarantee, Gregorius was one of the Phillies’ highest-profile acquisitions during the offseason, though the former Yankees star landed the contract off a less-than-ideal platform year. After returning from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in June, the 30-year-old hit a below-average .238/.276/.441 and totaled only 0.9 fWAR over 344 plate appearances. Gregorius also wound up under the league average in several important Statcast categories. Nevertheless, as someone who put up no worse than 4.0 fWAR in both 2017 and ’18, the Phillies are banking on a rebound; otherwise, they can simply move on after the season.

Johan Camargo, 3B, Braves:

The switch-hitting Camargo was a 3.0-fWAR player two seasons ago, but he fell flat last year, turning in a minus-0.5 effort with a dismal .233/.279/.384 line in 248 plate appearances. Despite that, he’s in the running (along with Austin Riley) to start at third base this season for the Braves, who lost previous No. 1 option Josh Donaldson in free agency.

Yan Gomes, C, Nationals:

Gomes earned the lone All-Star nod of his career in 2018, his final season with the Indians, but saw his offensive production dip in Year 1 with the Nationals. A slow start doomed Gomes to a .223/.316/.389 line in 358 PA, though he did experience a major offensive rebound in the second half. Defensively, while Gomes did throw out 31 percent of would-be base thieves, his pitch-framing numbers fell off a cliff. Still, the Nationals brought him back for two years and $10MM to once again team with Kurt Suzuki.

Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets:

Cano was supposed to be the long-term answer at second for the Mets, who paid a pretty penny for him and closer Edwin Diaz in a trade with the Mariners in December 2018. Instead, the longtime star turned in the worst season of his excellent career, batting .256/.307/.428 in 423 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened campaign. Cano recorded far better numbers during the second half of the season, though, and ranked near the top of the league in multiple Statcast categories (average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage). So, it may be too soon to declare the 37-year-old done; at least, the Mets hope that’s the case.

Wilson Ramos, C, Mets:

Ramos was yet another of the Mets’ hyped pre-2019 pickups whose first season with the team didn’t go as hoped. The 32-year-old did notch a respectable batting line for his position, slashing .288/.351/.416 across 524 PA, but it paled in comparison to what he did the previous season. And Ramos wasn’t exactly a strength defensively. He threw out just 15 percent of would-be base stealers and ended up near the bottom of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Jed Lowrie, INF, Mets:

There may not have been a more ill-fated addition for the Mets last offseason than Lowrie. Signed to a two-year, $20MM contract after back-to-back terrific seasons with the Athletics, multiple injuries limited Lowrie to nine games and eight plate appearances. The 35-year-old isn’t even a lock to participate this season, as he continues to deal with leg troubles. Even if Lowrie does play, he’s not slated to be anything more than a backup right now. Perhaps that will change as the season goes along, but Lowrie will have to get healthy first.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets:

Hey, another Met! Cespedes is coming off an injury-ravaged couple years – including an ailment he suffered during a run-in with a wild boar – but seems to be making progress now. The talent’s there for a bounce-back campaign, but if your stance is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” you’re not alone.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets:

Maybe we should change the name of this list to “Mets Hitters Who Are Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons.” Nimmo was the most productive of this group last year, at least offensively, but his output fell shy of his coming-out party in 2018. Injuries held the on-base machine to 69 games, 254 PA, a .221/.375/.407 line and 1.3 fWAR. Meanwhile, his hard-hit percentage plummeted by seven points and his expected weighted on-base average dropped from .352 to .330, per Statcast.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Marlins:

Aguilar was among the game’s most prolific sluggers as a member of the Brewers in 2018, when he registered a 134 wRC+ and amassed 35 home runs. But he was unable to follow it up during a 2019 divided between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. Aguilar concluded with an uninspiring .236/.325/.389 line and 12 homers across 389 trips to the plate. However, according to Statcast (.334 xwOBA versus .307 real wOBA), he may have deserved better. The Marlins are banking on that after plucking the 29-year-old off waivers over the winter.

Francisco Cervelli, C, Marlins:

Like Aguilar, Cervelli’s production dropped precipitously in 2019. The 34-year-old’s longtime concussion problems came to the forefront again, holding him to 160 PA of replacement-level production. But Cervelli was a very good contributor just two seasons ago, and for $2MM, Miami’s hoping he’ll serve as a solid complement and mentor to Jorge Alfaro.

Braves Likely To Mull Third Base Decision Until Final Days Of Camp

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It doesn’t sound as though the Braves’ decision on an everyday third baseman will come until the final days of camp. Austin Riley and Johan Camargo are vying for that spot, but manager Brian Snitker told reporters today that both players have impressed so far and he’ll “wait until the last couple of days” before making up his mind (Twitter thread via David O’Brien of The Athletic). Snitker has previously suggested that whichever player doesn’t get the Opening Day nod could head to Triple-A Gwinnett for everyday at-bats, as both have minor league options remaining. The skipper again implied as much today: “[A]ll things being equal, one guy’s not going to be real happy with the decision.”

Camargo is hitting .308/.333/.500 through 10 games thus far, while Riley is hitting .320/.346/.600 in the same sample. Obviously, we’re talking about a minuscule number of plate appearances (26), and the Braves’ decision will be based on more than the pair’s surface-level production at the plate.

Braves Option A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka

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  • Lefty A.J. Minter and righty Chad Sobotka’s bids to earn season-opening roster spots with the Braves have already ended. The team optioned the pair Monday, leaving it with 52 players on its camp roster, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. Neither pitcher performed well for the Braves last year. Minter walked a little over seven hitters per nine, contributing heavily to a hideous 7.06 ERA in 29 1/3 innings. Sobotka wasn’t much better over his 29 frames, in which he logged a 6.21 ERA with 5.9 walks per nine and an HR/9 of 1.86.

Details On Braves' Offer To Josh Donaldson

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  • The Braves lost their top free agent, Josh Donaldson, to the Twins’ four-year, $92MM offer over the winter. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged afterward that the team put forth an offer that came up short. Heyman has some details on it, reporting that the Braves were willing to go to four years in the range of $75MM to $90MM to retain Donaldson. That’s a wide gap, so it’s unknown just how much money Donaldson would have left on the table to re-sign with Atlanta. Regardless, the club now looks to be in much less impressive shape at third, where Austin Riley and Johan Camargo are competing for the starting role.

Felix Hernandez Leading Race For Rotation Spot?

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Longtime Seattle ace Felix Hernandez looks to be leading the competition for a place in Atlanta’s Cole Hamels-less rotation, Mark Bowman of MLB.com relays. The 33-year-old King Felix has given himself the upper hand with 4 2/3 innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball this spring. Hernandez, who’s competing against Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint for one of two spots, is attempting to revive his career back-to-back trying seasons. The former AL Cy Young winner’s recent struggles forced him to settle for a minor league contract over the winter, and if he does make the Braves, he’ll earn a $1MM salary.

Freddie Freeman Returns, Feels "Great"

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  • Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has battled some discomfort in his surgically repaired right elbow, but as expected, he appears to be fine. After sitting out of action last week, Freeman returned Monday, saying (per David O’Brien of The Athletic, via Instagram), “I feel great,” and added that he’s not facing any restrictions. That’s excellent for Atlanta, which will likely need yet another outstanding season from Freeman if it’s going to rule the National League East for the third year in a row.

Still No Timetable For Cole Hamels

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It has now been nearly three weeks since news emerged that Braves starter Cole Hamels wouldn’t be ready to report to Spring Training on time due to some shoulder irritation. There’s still no timeline in place for him to get back to action, manager Brian Snitker said today, as David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (Twitter links).

There is some evidence of progress, it seems, but the update largely confirms that the Atlanta organization is going to endure a fairly lengthy stretch without the veteran southpaw. A recent medical exam — held, as promised, three weeks after the initial concern arose — revealed that Hamels’s shoulder has improved but that he’s still not ready to resume throwing.

There really isn’t much to go off of here in assessing the situation. The Braves haven’t given much indication of just what Hamels is dealing with, so there’s no context to work with. It isn’t clear when Hamels will go in for another check-up, either. Presumably, he won’t pick up a ball until he receives clearance.

What is clear is that Hamels is certain to miss the start of the season — and not just the minimum 15 days. (Yes, the 15-day IL is back for pitchers.) Even if Hamels is cleared to throw in a week’s time and doesn’t experience further issues, he’d be about a month behind the regular ramp-up schedule and wouldn’t have a chance to tune up in Spring Training competition.

The Braves can certainly weather the loss of Hamels. Sean Newcomb and Felix Hernandez are likely to round out the rotation to open the season, but there are a host of interesting young arms available to call upon depending upon how things progress. Snitker said today that Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and perhaps Touki Toussaint could still challenge for roles. Still, it’s obviously disappointing to lose the team’s major offseason rotation addition — particularly since Hamels was signed in large part to provide reliable innings.

Latest On Braves' Third Base Battle

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Johan Camargo and Austin Riley are competing for not only the Braves’ starting third base job, but also potentially a spot on the 26-man roster altogether.  Manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that he feels both Camargo and Riley are best served by everyday playing time, rather than splitting third base in a platoon or one player working in a backup role.  Sending one of the duo down to Triple-A is “not out of the question,” Snitker said.  “They’ve got (minor-league) options, and if long term, for the health of our ballclub that’s (what) we see fit, that could happen.”

Braves Part Ways With Dave Wallace

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  • Special assistant Dave Wallace and the Braves have “mutually agreed to part ways” after three seasons, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  This was Wallace’s second stint in Atlanta’s organization, after working as a minor league pitching coordinator from 2010-13.  The 72-year-old Wallace is known for his many years as a pitching coach with five different teams, most recently working with Orioles pitchers from 2014-16.

Marcell Ozuna Discusses Cardinals, Qualifying Offer Decision

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Marcell Ozuna signed a one-year, $18MM deal with the Braves in January, after an offseason that saw the outfielder connected to multiple teams, including a potential reunion with the Cardinals.  Though he turned down the Cards’ one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer, “if I knew before it was going to happen like this, I would have taken it,” Ozuna told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “But I wanted to make sure I had a chance (at a contract) for my career.”

As it happened, such an acceptable long-term offer didn’t materialize over the early weeks of the offseason, leading Ozuna and his representatives to pivot to the idea of a one-year deal and a quick return to free agency next winter without the burden of the draft pick compensation attached to his services for rejecting the QO.  (Players cannot be issued more than one qualifying offer in their career.)  Before taking Atlanta’s one-year deal, Ozuna turned several multi-year offers that were reportedly on the table, including a three-year/$50MM offer from the Reds.

There’s some obvious risk in Ozuna’s decision, as injury or a down year would erase his chances at landing another major long-term contract, and he’ll be re-entering the market heading into his age-30 season.  But, the outfielder is choosing to bet on himself to deliver a better platform year than in 2019, when he hit a solid but unspectacular .241/.328/.472 with 29 homers over 549 PA for the Cardinals, and missed over a month recovering from a fractured finger.

Ozuna made no secret of his desire to return to St. Louis, and after extensions talks proved fruitless last season, he and his agency (MDR Sports Management) remained in contact with the Cardinals “every time something moved” in his market, Ozuna said.

“If they offer a good offer, I would get it.  But they didn’t do it….I thought the Cardinals were going to offer something (early), but they didn’t do that after I rejected the qualifying offer,” Ozuna told Goold.  “So, I got patient. And I waited.  And I talked to my agent a lot of the time.  We were waiting — and then Atlanta was the team that gave me the opportunity for the one year and a good deal.  I had to do that.”

There don’t appear to be any hard feelings between Ozuna and the Cardinals, as he is “not disappointed” with how the winter played out.  “I feel like they did not give me the opportunity, so I had to walk away.  It’s business,” Ozuna said.

It ended up being a pretty quiet offseason for the Cardinals overall, who re-signed Adam Wainwright and Matt Wieters, and signed Kwang-Hyun Kim and Brad Miller but otherwise didn’t pull the trigger on any major moves, despite constant rumors.  The club’s one notable trade was a multi-player deal with the Rays that saw the Cardinals actually subtract from their Major League roster, moving Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay.  At the time of that trade, there was some thought that St. Louis could be making room in its outfield to potentially accommodate Ozuna, but instead, the Cards were simply subtracting from an outfield picture that is still pretty crowded as we approach Opening Day.

It can certainly be argued that Ozuna represents a more proven MLB asset than any of Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, and Ozuna also seems like a better option at this point than veteran Dexter Fowler, who is entering his age-34 season and is coming three inconsistent years for the Cards.  However, with so many outfielders in the mix, the Cardinals were seemingly more comfortable with counting on some members of this group to emerge than they were in offering Ozuna even a one-year deal.

It’s interesting to speculate on how the shape of the offseason (for the Braves, Cardinals, and the free agent market as a whole) would have been altered had Ozuna indeed taken the Cards’ qualifying offer.  There was some thought last fall that he could be a candidate to take the $17.8MM deal, as two other notable would-be free agents — Jose Abreu (White Sox) and Jake Odorizzi (Twins) did with their respective teams.  However, given that the Cardinals’ interest in retaining Ozuna seemed lukewarm at best, it could be that St. Louis might not have issued the QO whatsoever if they thought there was a truly serious chance that Ozuna would accept.

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