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Braves Expect Cole Hamels To Be Ready For Season

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Left-hander Cole Hamels, one of the Braves’ key offseason acquisitions, dealt with shoulder irritation during the first version of spring training a few months ago. If not for the coronavirus forcing camp to shut down, and if the regular season would have started on schedule, Hamels would not have been ready to open 2020 in the Braves’ rotation. That’s no longer the case, though. With the season now on track to open in a month, Hamels should be part of Atlanta’s starting staff from the get-go, general manager Alex Anthopoulos said Wednesday (via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution).

The Braves inked Hamels to a one-year, $18MM contract over the winter in the hopes that he’d help fill the voids left by Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran, capable innings eaters who departed in free agency. Hamels, 36, does have a long and successful track record as a workhorse in his own right, having tossed at least 200 innings in eight different seasons. However, injuries slowed Hamels last year as a member of the Cubs, with whom he amassed 141 2/3 frames (the second-lowest figure of his career) and logged a 3.81 ERA/4.09 FIP with 9.08 K/9 and 3.56 BB/9.

While Hamels no longer seems to be the front-end starter he was during his prime, there’s nothing to suggest he won’t give the reigning NL East champions respectable production this year. Barring any injuries during spring training 2.0, he’ll join Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz as locks in Atlanta’s staff. The fifth spot’s less certain, though Felix Hernandez, Kyle Wright and Sean Newcomb were all candidates for the role before the game’s abrupt halt.

Regardless of how the Braves’ season-opening rotation looks, Anthopoulos stated that he expects they’ll be conservative with their starters’ workloads for at least a couple turns, per Burns. That could mean appearances ranging from two to four innings at the outset of the campaign.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/20/20

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Let’s catch up on the latest draft signings …

  • The Astros were able to wrap up all of their draft business, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. In addition to picking up some undrafted free agents, the Houston organization inked its four draftees. The key signing was Alex Santos, a high school hurler who’ll turn pro after being offered $1.25MM — a fair bit over the $870,700 slot he was chosen at. Zach Daniels and Tyler Brown each signed for near their slot amounts, while fifth-rounder Shay Witcomb took just $56K and left the team with room to ink Santos.
  • Also inking for $1.2MM was Rangers’ choice Dylan MacLean. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the news on Twitter. MacLean was a fourth-round pick in the draft, signing for more than double his slot amount. MacLean is a southpaw hurler out of Central Catholic High School in Oregon.
  • The Braves went well over slot to sign fifth-rounder Bryce Elder, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis (Twitter link). Elder will receive $850K, far north of the $336,600 allocation for the 156th overall pick.
  • As he said he would, Tigers fourth-rounder Gage Workman has reached agreement on a deal with his new team. The Detroit organization announced the signing, though it isn’t yet known what the Arizona State infielder will receive to forego a return for another run with the Sun Devils. Still just twenty years of age, Workman posted a lifetime .298/.372/.496 mark at ASU. He’s likely to begin his pro career as a shortstop.
  • The Cardinals announced that they’ve signed third-rounder Levi Prater. He’ll earn $575K ($627,900 slot value), Callis tweets. Callils notes that Prater is a right-handed hurler with a 90-93 mph fastball.
  • The Phillies added fourth-rounder Carson Ragsdale and fifth-rounder Baron Radcliff, per Callis (Twitter links). Ragsdale will earn $225K, well under the $497,500 slot value. Radcliff, a Georgia Tech outfielder, is slated to take home $100K, which will also leave some savings since his draft slot came with a $371,600 pool allocation.
  • The White Sox chased some serious mid-round savings. Third-round choice Adisyn Coffee has inked for $50K and fourth-rounder Kade Mechals went for $10K, Callis reports (Twitter links). Both are right-handed hurlers, Coffee from Wabash Valley College and Mechals out of Grand Canyon. It’s not hard to interpret these signings: the White Sox wish to reallocate the rest of the slot money ($733,100 and $517,400, respectively). The club is believed to be lining up a big bonus with second-rounder Jarred Kelley, though he hasn’t yet signed.
  • Rays third-rounder Hunter Barnhart is heading to Tampa Bay on a $585K bonus, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. The Rays saved some cash in inning Barnhart, whose third-round slot carried a value of $604,800.
  • High school righty Marco Raya has agreed to terms with the Twins. Callis tweets that he’ll receive a $410K bonus, which isn’t far shy of the $442,900 slot value. Raya is foregoing a commitment to Texas Tech. Though he’s hardly a power hurler, he’s said to have an “interesting four-pitch mix.”

Braves Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Jared Shuster

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The Braves have agreed to a a $2,197,500 bonus with first-round selection Jared Shuster, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link). The Wake Forest southpaw was selected 25th overall, which came with a $2,740,300 pool allocation.

The Atlanta organization has also locked up its third-round choice, Jesse Franklin, Callis tweets. The Michigan outfielder also came in underslot, with a $497,500 bonus that’s six figures shy of the $599,100 price point.

These savings will likely be put to use on the Braves’ lone remaining unsigned draftee. Fifth-rounder Bryce Elder will presumably absorb most or all of the team’s available bonus resources.

Shuster was a rising prospect when the college season was suspended, with his velocity and command both trending in the right direction. He drew an array of ranking placements from draft pundits. Keith Law of The Athletic (subscription link) ultimately gave him the highest grade, putting him in the 26th spot on the board.

As for Franklin, he didn’t get a chance to put his best foot forward in 2020 owing to an injury. He had some ups and downs over his time in college. The Braves obviously believe in the toolset and will trust that Franklin can find his stride in the professional ranks.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/18/20

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We’ll track today’s slate of signings from the 2020 amateur draft here…

  • The Braves agreed to a full-slot deal with fourth-round pick Spencer Strider, tweets MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The Clemson righty, who returned from Tommy John surgery early this spring, will receive $451,800. The 6’0″, 195-pound Strider posted a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 12 innings before the NCAA season was halted, and Callis notes that he hit 95 mph multiple times in his first few showings. Strider didn’t rank inside MLB.com’s Top 200 or Baseball America’s Top 500, although that’s perhaps not much of a surprise given that he missed the entire 2019 season recovering from surgery. The Atlanta organization clearly liked what it saw in his brief return this spring — brief as it may have been.
  • Astros third-rounder Tyler Brown announced on Twitter that he’s officially signed with the team. Callis reports that Brown received his full $577K slot value. Listed at 6’4″ and 242 pounds, the now-former Vanderbilt right-hander notched a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio with three earned runs allowed in 10 2/3 innings this spring, which seemed to be setting the stage for a strong followup to a nice sophomore season. In 2019, Brown tossed 41 2/3 frames out of the Commodores’ bullpen and logged 14 saves with a 2.59 ERA and an impressive 58-to-8 K/BB ratio. Brown ranked 99th on Baseball America’s Top 500 list and 133rd over at MLB.com. Both outlet’s scouting reports suggest that his size and four-pitch mix could make at least give him a chance to start, despite working as a reliever for most of his collegiate career. If Houston opts to leave him in the ’pen, though, his path the the Majors would likely be quicker.

Undrafted Free Agent Signings: 6/17/20

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Here are the latest undrafted free agent signings from around the majors. Reminder: $20K is the maximum an unpicked player can receive this year…

  • Lamar infielder J.C. Correa will sign with the Astros, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He’ll join his brother, star shortstop Carlos Correa, in the Houston organization. The Astros drafted J.C. Correa in 2018 (33rd round) and ’19 (38th), but he decided not to sign on those occasions because he wanted to earn his degree first. He slashed .315/.368/.469 and swatted 10 home runs over 304 plate appearances at Lamar.
  • Indiana University outfielder Elijah Dunham announced Wednesday that he has signed with the Yankees. Dunham, who didn’t sign after the Pirates selected him in the 40th round in 2019, cracked the top 250 pre-draft rankings of ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel this year and checked in at No. 186 on Baseball America’s list. BA writes that Dunham carries a “balanced offensive profile in a corner outfield spot.”
  • The Braves have added a local product in University of Georgia shortstop Cam Shepherd, Baseball America tweets. He was BA’s top available undrafted senior, and the outlet ranked him as the 298th-best prospect entering the draft. His stock has fallen in BA’s eyes from a year ago, though, as it had Shepherd as the 97th-rated pre-draft prospect then. The Rays took Shepherd in the 20th round in 2019, but he opted against signing.
  • The Indians have signed Fresno State left-hander Jaime Arias for $20K, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com tweets. Primarily a reliever in college, Arias pitched to a 3.56 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 139 innings.
  • The Red Sox have added Grand Canyon University first baseman Cuba Bess, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. Bess slashed .313/.425/.517 with 12 home runs in 348 PA as a collegian.
  • The Marlins have picked up Air Force outfielder Ashton Easley, per Craig Mish of Sports Grid. Easley was a .301/.364/.512 hitter with 17 homers across 619 PA in school. The club has also signed VCU infielder Brett Norwood, who batted .303/.425/.440 with seven HRs in 299 college PA.
  • The Twins have inked UNC-Wilmington southpaw Zarion Sharpe, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune writes. Sharpe stayed in school despite going to the Cardinals in the 19th round a year ago, and he tossed 20 2/3 frames of 2.18 ERA ball with 8.7 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 this season.

Adding Up The Braves Future Salary Obligations

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Braves:

*Includes buyouts of club options over Ozzie Albies, Will Smith, Ender Inciarte, and Darren O’Day

(click to expand/view detail list)

Each NL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class

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With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each National League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit on their picks in certain years.

First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…

  • Braves: 2007 (76.6 bWAR) – Hitting on Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the first two rounds goes a long way. Heyward has been a disappointment with the Cubs but had some electrifying seasons in his early days in Atlanta (and his year in St. Louis), while Freeman has emerged as a fixture in the Braves’ lineup as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past decade.
  • Brewers: 2009 (30.7 bWAR) – This was period of some underwhelming draft returns for Milwaukee. The 2009 class tops the list thanks to Khris Davis, Mike Fiers and Scooter Gennett, all of whom are better known for their play (or whistleblowing, in Fiers’ case) elsewhere.
  • Cardinals: 2006 (56.3 bWAR) – By virtue of putting up baseball’s best record in 2005, the Cardinals sat at the back of every round in 2006. No matter, as they managed to find a handful of highly productive big leaguers. First-rounder Adam Ottavino didn’t work out in St. Louis but went on to a strong career as a reliever in Colorado. Tommy Pham (16th round) and Jon Jay (2nd round) have each carved out strong careers, while Allen Craig (8th round) had a brief but productive peak.
  • Cubs: 2007 (54.4 bWAR) – Unfortunately for the Cubs, this class is almost all about Josh Donaldson, who did none of his damage in a Chicago uniform. Perhaps Javier Báez (2012 draft) or Kris Bryant (2013 draft) will match or exceed Donaldson’s stellar career in time.
  • Diamondbacks: 2009 (73.1 bWAR) – Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) went on to become the top position player in franchise history. First-rounder AJ Pollock had a couple star-level seasons of his own before injuries knocked him off track, while Chase Anderson (9th round) has emerged as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
  • Dodgers: 2006 (70.6 bWAR) – The Dodgers only signed two big leaguers from the 2006 class. When one of them goes on to become arguably the best pitcher of his generation, you can more than get away with it. Clayton Kershaw’s Hall of Fame plaque will boast at least three Cy Young Awards and an NL MVP.
  • Giants: 2008 (65.6 bWAR) – The late-2000’s draft classes set up the crux of the Giants’ three World Series titles the first half of the next decade. None was more impactful than 2008, when SF grabbed Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford in the first and fourth rounds, respectively.
  • Marlins: 2010 (56.1 bWAR) – Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto have matured into two of the best players in baseball, so the Marlins’ 2010 class (which also boasted late-blooming A’s slugger Mark Canha) has a chance to be really special. Of course, none of those players are still in Miami.
  • Mets: 2010 (50.5 bWAR) – Seventh overall pick Matt Harvey was briefly the ace the Mets hoped they were adding in 2010. As it turns out, Jacob deGrom (9th round) had a lot more staying power atop their rotation.
  • Nationals: 2009 (44.9 bWAR) – First overall pick Stephen Strasburg has more than made good on that selection, culminating in a World Series MVP effort in 2019. The 2009 class also brought in a handful of role players, including Drew Storen and Michael Taylor.
  • Padres: 2007  (38.9 bWAR) – Another team for whom the top player simply got away, the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2007 class was Corey Kluber (4th round). Obviously, even San Diego didn’t him expect him to go on to win a pair of Cy Young Awards.
  • Phillies: 2014 (24.2 bWAR) – There were some tough results for the Phillies on draft day in recent seasons, but 2014 looks to be a notable exception. Aaron Nola went seventh overall and has emerged as a high-level starter, while Rhys Hoskins (fifth round) looks like the Phils’ long-term answer at first base.
  • Pirates: 2011 (29.7 bWAR) – The Pirates’ 2011 class is almost exclusively about the contributions of first overall pick Gerrit Cole, but he obviously reached his peak after being traded to Houston. Josh Bell (2nd round) looked to have turned the corner at the plate in the first half of 2019.
  • Reds: 2007 (43.1 bWAR) – The Reds found three future everyday players in the 2007 class. Todd Frazier (supplemental first-round), Zack Cozart (2nd round) and Devin Mesoraco (1st round) all went on to become productive players in Cincinnati.
  • Rockies: 2009 (47.4 bWAR) – The Rockies graduated six players from the 2009 class to the big leagues, although only one proved a smashing success. Finding a player of Nolan Arenado’s caliber in the second round makes for a great draft even if the rest of the players taken underwhelm.

Replacing Legends

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If you trust Braves’ third base coach Ron Washington, Austin Riley has a long and bright future ahead of him with the Atlanta Braves, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Said Washington, “He’s a very, very special kid. He’s on that special level with Ozzie (Albies) and (Ronald) Acuńa (Jr.) and all those young guys. He’s on that special level with them.”

Given Washington’s stellar reputation as an infield instructor, his word carries some weight. He goes on in O’Brien’s article to laud not only Riley’s long-term future with the bat, but with the glove as well, calling Riley “a tremendous third baseman.”

While it’s certainly encouraging for Braves’ fans to hear Washington speak so highly of Riley after an up-and-down rookie season, the path ahead is not without obstacles. For starters, he hasn’t locked down his spot in the starting lineup. All accounts suggest he’s going to have to earn his keep while being pushed at third by Johan Camargo. After his first month of big-league action, it would have seemed unfathomable that Riley wouldn’t have the 2020 third base job locked down, but Camargo remains very much in the running, despite struggling himself in 2019. Camargo’s year was worth -0.6 rWAR after hitting only .233/.279/.384 over 248 plate appearances. He’s played much better in the past (4.4 fWAR from 2017 to 2018), and the Braves appear confident he can at the very least hold the line for a year.

Should Camargo get the bulk of playing time at third, Riley could get at-bats as a designated hitter –  at least in theory. But O’Brien notes that the scuttlebutt out of Atlanta pegs Marcell Ozuna as the likeliest option to see heavy minutes as a potential DH. Makes sense with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis on hand to handle the outfield rotation. Riley himself could even see some minutes out on the grass depending on how things shake out.

But the real question at hand here is this: is Austin Riley the third baseman of the future for the Atlanta Braves? Ron Washington certainly seems to think so. If we trust Washington’s eye for defensive talent and assume Riley can stick at third base (or even become a plus defender), the question is whether his approach at the dish can improve enough to take advantage of his otherworldly power.

After all, Riley’s power numbers last year were excellent. He managed a .471 SLG with 18 home runs in just 274 at bats. His isolated power was .245 ISO, well above average and a number you’d hope for out of a middle-of-the-order bat. For context, Acuna Jr. walked away from 2019 with a .238 ISO. A full season at Riley’s mark would put him among the top-40 mashers in the league by isolated power. His power plays.

But even with those numbers, Riley’s total offensive contribution amounted to 14 percent below league average by wRC+. He needs to round out the rest of his game – and that starts with cutting down strikeouts. Riley’s walk-to-strikeout numbers are not anywhere near where they need to be for everyday reps (5.4 BB%, 36.4 K%). Both numbers need to see significant positive regression. The good news is, Riley looked the part in spring training, where signs pointed to Riley being able to make the necessary adjustments.

Third base is a loaded position for Atlanta – in terms of poignancy – and Riley has big shoes to fill. Putting aside the big picture pressure of manning the spot once belonging to the legendary Chipper Jones, even recent history has set a high bar for Riley. Last season, Josh Donaldson returned to All-Star form with a .259/.379/.521 line, 37 rainmaking bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, 132 wRC+, good for 4.9 fWAR/6.0 rWAR. Good luck replicating those numbers out the gate.

Elsewhere in the NL East, another legend moved westward after a memorable 2019. Anthony Rendon gave the Nationals seven underrated seasons at the hot corner before joining the Los Angeles Angels this winter. We could talk all day about Rendon’s performance this postseason, but those in Washington, Rendon-as-superstar was old hat: He’s been a 6+ fWAR performer for three seasons running. Beyond his consistency, there’s simply no replacing the slow-heartbeat clutch-hitting Rendon provided the Nats on their World Series run – but someone is going to have to try.

Enter Carter Kieboom. Rendon’s nominal heir apparent – at 22-years-old – is about half a year younger than Riley, and he comes sporting a shinier prospect pedigree. He’s the 21st ranked prospect overall by MLB.com and Fangraphs, while Baseball America puts him as the 15th overall prospect (admittedly, Riley wasn’t far off, topping out as Baseball America’s 22nd ranked prospect before last season).

Much like Riley, Kieboom’s role at the outset of whatever season comes next is TBD. There’s an even greater chance the Nats roll with veterans Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera sharing at-bats between third and second. At least, that was the plan had the season begun on time. Depending on how live baseball in the pipeline shakes out, the Nats might prefer Kieboom break camp with the team just to ensure he’s continuing his development via live baseball. With a potential DH in play, there may even be enough at-bats for the Nats to accommodate playing time for Kieboom and their veteran triumvirate.

Also like Riley, Kieboom wasn’t overly impressive in his first taste of big-league action. Apologists have plenty of cause to support Kieboom even after hitting just .128/.209/.282 over an 11 game stint early in the year (which included 4 errors at shortstop). Reason being: he wasn’t ready. Kieboom’s April promotion was a case of injury-depleted desperation. The Nats were in a bind with Trea Turner on the shelf. Wilmer Difo wasn’t getting the job done as Turner’s understudy, and the Nats were off to a slow start (11-12 at the time of his debut).

The small sample hasn’t done much to lessen the optimism over Kieboom’s potential, especially after he raked for a line of .303/.409/.493 for Triple-A Fresno. The shortstop-by-nature has a long-term future at third or second in Washington, though the suggestion has been that his power will play enough to handle third, and the Nats’ other top young bat has spent most of his career at second (Luis Garcia).

Riley is about a half-season ahead of Keiboom’s trajectory, giving us more familiarity with his game at the pro level. But for comparison’s sake, Riley hit .293/.366/.626 in 44 games at Triple-A in 2019. They’re both former first-rounders (Riley #41 overall in 2015, Kieboom #28 overall in 2016), but their draft status won’t help as each looks to fill the shoes of franchise legends.

And yet, they’re not the same. Riley is a hulking light-breaker who’s defensively playing up to stick at third base. His frame is redolent of a young Ryan Zimmerman before Mr. Nat made the move across the diamond to first. Kieboom’s not a small man himself (6’2″, 190 lbs), but some scouts thought he could stick at shortstop, and he brings a contact-oriented approach. He can stroke it to all fields with potential plus power and a track record of taking walks and putting the ball in play. They’re different molds as far as third baseman go, but neither has much leeway as they try to establish themselves in the majors. Not with both the Braves and Nationals looking to contend in a season that could be as short as 50-some games.

Whenever they claim regular roles, Riley and Keiboom will be two exciting young talents to track in the NL East. The Phillies’ Alec Bohm may very well throw his hat into this ring in the very near future as well (feel free to make your case for Bohm in the comments). Bohm is another former first-rounder (third overall in 2018), but he’s spent less time in the minors and is actually older than both Riley and Kieboom. Team conditions aside, let’s say you’ve got a hole at third base and the right to poach one third base prospect. Who do you want? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Which Glove-First Shortstop Would You Rather Have?

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In a piece from MASN last week, Roch Kubatko said this of the Orioles’ search for a veteran shortstop: “The Orioles chose [Jose] Iglesias over Adeiny Hechavarría in their winter search for a glove-first shortstop.” Kubatko linked the Orioles to Hechavarria back in December, but La Pantera ultimately re-upped with the Braves on a one-year, $1MM deal. The Orioles, meanwhile, splurged on Iglesias, signing the 30-year-old gloveman for a one-year, $3MM guarantee (with a $3.5MM team option for 2021). 

Granted, the Jose Iglesias versus Adeiny Hechavarria showdown wasn’t the most compelling positional matchup of free agency. And while the Orioles may have shown interest in Hechavarria, these situations are dynamic, and the decision to sign one or the other was likely never quite so binary. Let’s use it as a jumping-off point for this player comparison anyway.

First, let’s cover the similarities, as both Cuban-born veterans are glove-first shortstops viewed generally as second-division starters. Hechavarria is a year older, and his deal comes at one-third the cost of Iglesias’, though the Orioles picked up the second year of control on Iglesias. Both players entered the league fairly young and both saw their first significant action in 2012 (Iglesias at 22 with the Red Sox, Hechavarria at 23 with the Blue Jays). And both have since gone on to play for multiple franchises (Iglesias for Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati and Baltimore, Hechavarria for Toronto, Miami, Tampa, Pittsburgh, both New Yorks, and Atlanta).

Since Iglesias has a more stable resume, my guess is his name carries a little more weight, so let’s start there. Iglesias, 30, has produced a total of 11.1 rWAR/11.6 fWAR thus far over his eight years in the bigs (he appeared in 10 games as a 21-year-old in 2011, but missed all of the 2014 season). The right-handed batter has traded off between ~2.5 fWAR and ~1.5 fWAR seasons going all the way back to his rookie campaign, but either way he presents as an above-average option at short. He produced 9 OAA at short last year, putting him among the elite options defensively at short.

The batting line is the question with Iglesias after posting a career line of .273/.315/.371. Included therein, however, is a fair amount of year-to-year variance. Early in his career, Iglesias was a .300 hitter, but over his final three seasons in Detroit (2016 to 2018) he managed a batting average of just .259 BA. The walk rate has been steadily below average, so when he can’t hit his way on base, his whole offensive profile suffers. He’s a difficult guy to strike out, and as a guy who puts the ball in play without much oomph, his offensive value is tied directly to his BABIP. When his BABIP falls below .300, his overall line underwhelms. When the ball bounces his way, such as in 2013, 2015, and 2019, Iglesias turns into an asset with the bat: combined .296 BA in those seasons.

Iglesias has also gained a modicum of power over the years. His isolated power was consistently below .100 for the early part of his career, but over the last three seasons, Iglesias has enjoyed a small bump to .114 ISO, .120 ISO, and .119 ISO. That’s still nothing to write home about, but put together with the rest of his profile, and it’s enough to make Iglesias a viable starter.

Thanks to his every-down status as the Marlins starting shortstop from 2013 to 2016, Hechavarria has appeared in more games and seen more plate appearances over his career than Iglesias. The past three seasons have been a whirlwind, however, as Hechavarria became a part-time player while playing for seven teams in the last three seasons. By WAR, he only comes about halfway to matching Iglesias’ career totals (5.6 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR). Iglesias edges out Hechavarria in most statistical categories, including career stolen bases (52 to 35).

Though their profiles are very similar, the real difference between the two is that Hechavarria hasn’t matched the offensive ceiling of Iglesias. They walk at similar rates, and though Hechavarria strikes out a little more, he still boasts an above-average ability to put the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he’s never quite put it all together. He hasn’t posted a batting average higher than .261 or an on-base percentage over .300 since 2015.

If there’s something in Hechavarria’s favor, it’s this: his power ticked upwards last season, to a robust .202 ISO. The added power came in only half a season of play, so it’s hard to know if the gains in Hechavarria’s game could/would be sustained over the course of a full slate of games. Back in Atlanta, we won’t likely find out, as he’s in line to back up Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies in the middle infield.

For that matter, it’s difficult to compare the contracts signed by Hechavarria and Iglesias because their expected roles are so different – and the expectations of their clubs are so very divergent. The Orioles might see triple the production from Iglesias that the Braves will from Hechavarria (to match the salary difference), but that’s at least in part because Iglesias could receive triple the playing time. Both the Orioles and Braves probably got the guy that better suits their needs – but in a vacuum – the choice is yours (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Which 15 Players Should The Braves Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

So far, we’ve covered the Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Braves are up next.

First, we’ll start by removing free agents Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Nick Markakis, Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Tyler Flowers, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Darren O’Day from consideration.  Freddie Freeman gets a spot on the protected list by virtue of the no-trade rights he’ll earn this year.  We’ll also add Cristian Pache and Kyle Wright as Baseball America Top 100 prospects with a 2020 ETA.  Here’s the initial list of nine protected players:

Freddie Freeman
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ozzie Albies
Max Fried
Mike Soroka
Mike Foltynewicz
Dansby Swanson
Kyle Wright
Cristian Pache

That leaves six spots for the remaining 19 players.  Be sure to read up on their contract statuses and team control here.

Johan Camargo
Travis d’Arnaud
Grant Dayton
Adam Duvall
Ender Inciarte
Alex Jackson
Luke Jackson
Chris Martin
A.J. Minter
Sean Newcomb
Austin Riley
Will Smith
Chad Sobotka
Touki Toussaint
Jeremy Walker
Jacob Webb
Bryse Wilson
Huascar Ynoa

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly six players you think the Braves should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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