Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Jays Pursuing Edwin Diaz
Just four months into his first season with the Mets, ballyhooed winter acquisition Edwin Diaz has already emerged a potential trade chip amid a disappointing campaign. The Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Blue Jays are among the teams in on the right-handed closer, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Andy Martino of SNY.tv passes along different information on the Braves, tweeting there’s “no traction” on Diaz to Atlanta.
The fact that Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay are rumored to have interest in Diaz isn’t a shock. They’re all contending teams that are known to be in the market for bullpen help. The inclusion of rebuilding Toronto looks especially intriguing on paper, though it’s possible Diaz wouldn’t ever throw a pitch for the Blue Jays. The club could instead acquire Diaz and flip him to the Braves – one of the Mets’ division rivals – for prospects, according to Puma.
It’s the latest creative trade idea involving Diaz, whom the Mets are reportedly considering putting in a package with righty starter Zack Wheeler before Wednesday’s deadline. But whether anyone will even be able to pry Diaz out of New York is up in the air. Diaz was rookie general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s signature offseason addition, so BVW has predictably indicated it would take an enormous return for the Mets to deal him away so soon.
Van Wagenen, for his part, surrendered two of the game’s top prospects – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn – in a package for Diaz and second baseman Robinson Cano. The Mets also took on $100MM of Cano’s remaining money to get Diaz, but the trade has blown up in the non-contending club’s face so far. The typically great Cano may be deteriorating at the age of 36, while Diaz hasn’t been able to match his otherworldly 2018 swan song in Seattle.
The hard-throwing Diaz arrived in New York as a celebrated bullpen savior after closing 57 of 61 opportunities, posting a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP and logging 15.22 K/9 against 2.09 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings last season. The Mets’ version has been lit up for a 4.81 ERA over 39 1/3 frames and blown as many saves as he did last season (in 35 fewer chances). The home run ball has been a major concern this year for Diaz, who yielded HRs on a career-best 10.6 percent of flies in 2018. That figure has shot to a personal-worst 17.9 percent this season as his groundball numbers have fallen precipitously.
Even factoring in the difficulties Diaz has endured in 2019, there’s plenty to like – including his 97 mph heat, pre-2019 track record and the 3.50 FIP, 13.96 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 he has logged this season. Diaz has also suffered from poor luck, it seems, evidenced in part by a .407 batting average on balls in play against and a wide gap between the .336 weighted on-base average/.271 xwOBA that hitters have recorded off him.
Diaz may be a prime candidate for a turnaround, which – coupled with his team control – helps make him extremely attractive to the Mets and other clubs. The 25-year-old’s earning just over $600K this season and will go through the first of three potential trips through arbitration over the winter. However, whether he’ll do so as a Met or as a member of another team is now surprisingly in question.
Braves Place Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis On IL
SATURDAY, 5:28pm: Markakis suffered a fractured wrist and is likely to miss six to eight weeks, according to Burns. While Markakis won’t need surgery, he still won’t return until the middle of September.
12:02pm: The Braves placed both Swanson and Markakis on the 10-day injured list, per Burns. Max Fried takes one roster spot, while Duvall has been recalled to take the other. Swanson’s injury is listed as a right foot contusion, whereas Markakis, as feared, has a fractured right wrist (Twitter links).
FRIDAY: The NL East-leading Braves have seen their advantage over the second-place Nationals dwindle a bit over the past couple weeks. At 61-43, the Braves still own a 5 1/2-game cushion, but it appears their lineup is about to take two notable hits. The club could lose shortstop Dansby Swanson and right fielder Nick Markakis to the injured list, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution relays (links here).
Swanson injured the base of his heel Tuesday and hasn’t played since. The Braves will make a decision Saturday on a potential IL stint for Swanson, per manager Brian Snitker. The news sounds far worse for Markakis, who took a 91 mph fastball off the left wrist from Phillies southpaw Cole Irvin on Friday. While he Braves wound up winning the game, they probably lost Markakis in the process. He’ll see a doctor Saturday, but Markakis said after the game that “it doesn’t look good,” and Burns writes that Snitker was “pessimistic” about his status.
Both Swanson and Markakis have been solid complements this year to the Braves’ top-tier position players in Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson and Ozzie Albies. The 25-year-old Swanson’s on pace for a career season, having hit .265/.330/.468 (104 wRC+) with 17 home runs in 431 plate appearances. Markakis, 35, has posted a similarly effective slash line – .284/.358/.429 (105 wRC+) in 416 PA – with nine HRs.
Part of Markakis’ appeal throughout his career has been his commendable durability. He entered 2019 with six straight campaigns of 155-plus games under his belt, including a full 162-game slate last year, and has come back to appear in all 104 of the Braves’ contests this season. That streak now looks like a sure bet to end.
If the Braves do lose Swanson and Markakis, they could turn to Johan Camargo and-or Charlie Culberson at shortstop. Those two also count among the Braves’ reserve outfield options, as do Matt Joyce and veteran Adam Duvall. A back-to-back 30-home run hitter with the Reds from 2016-17, Duvall’s numbers plummeted during an ’18 campaign divided between Cincinnati and Atlanta. Duvall has spent all of this season at the Triple-A level as a result, but he’s likely to come up to help fill Markakis’ void, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets.
Markakis’ forthcoming absence could also enable the Braves to work the demoted Ender Inciarte into the mix more often. Inciarte made it clear Thursday he doesn’t want to be traded, and it now looks especially unlikely in light of Markakis’ injury.
Braves Targeting Pitching From Royals, Rangers
The Braves have a relatively strong hold on the National League East as they have pushed their lead back up to 5 1/2 games over the Nationals and 6 1/2 games over the Phillies. Much like their trailers in the East, the Braves are exploring reinforcements for a bullpen that has let the club down at times.
Much like other contenders, the Braves have looked into acquiring lefty Jake Diekman from the Royals, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter). Diekman remains one of the most likely players to move before Wednesday’s deadline, but the Royals are apparently in no rush to make a decision. Bowman names Ian Kennedy as another name that makes sense for the Braves, though the Royals are less interested in paying down the money owed Kennedy, making him a less likely target.
Though the same targets seem to make their way around the rumor mill from team-to-team, the Braves have not yet been tied to oft-rumored Tigers Shane Greene, Nicholas Castellanos or Matthew Boyd. A more likely trading partner for Atlanta is the Rangers, who can offer Mike Minor for the rotation or right-hander Jose Leclerc out of the pen.
Both Rangers come with future years of control, with Leclerc in particular being an interesting target as the 25-year-old recently signed an extension that has him under contract for five years after this season (through 2024). After recording 12 saves with a 1.56 ERA 59 games last season, Leclerc struggled out of the gate this year, ultimately losing his closer’s role and even taking a few turns as an Opener. That said, he turned things around since the slow start, currently holding a 4.02 ERA (3.31 FIP) in 47 games, making him worth 1.0 WAR by measure of both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs.
It would be at least understandable if the Rangers were looking for a mulligan on the Leclerc extension, but that’s not to say they’re looking to sell low on their power righty. The Braves plethora of pitching in the upper levels of the minors give them the bullets they need to acquire whomever they need, should they decide to pull the trigger.
Latest On Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler
10:35pm: It isn’t definite the Mets will trade Syndergaard, per reports from Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and Anthony Rieber of Newsday, though Rieber adds the club’s “working hard” to move him. The Astros are “pessimistic” about their chances of acquiring Syndergaard, DiComo writes. Meanwhile, it “doesn’t sound like” the Mets and Twins have made headway toward a deal, Martino tweets.
3:58pm: Mets righty Noah Syndergaard has emerged as the perhaps the most talked-about name on the trade market, and his name once again figures to dominate headlines — much as it did in the offseason. Meanwhile, scouts will be watching closely as fellow starter Zack Wheeler takes the hill tonight for his lone pre-deadline showcase start. Here’s the latest on both hurlers …
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets are seeking an MLB-ready starter who can step right into the rotation in place of Syndergaard, then some additional high-end prospects after that. The pitcher in question needn’t technically be the headliner in the deal, but presumably the Mets are eyeing a controllable (pre-arbitration) starter as well as premier minor leaguers beyond that point.
That aligns with recent reports from SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), who suggests that the Mets view the Padres, Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Yankees as the best on-paper fits in a deal. The Padres and Braves, in particular, are rich with MLB-ready pitchers in the upper minors, and Sherman lists that pair of organizations as the two that the Mets feel are best-positioned to work out a deal.
Notably, Sherman calls the Astros the “most aggressive” pursuer of Syndergaard, but Houston has seen its top pitching prospects take a step back in 2019. Forrest Whitley (shoulder fatigue) has barely pitched in 2019. Corbin Martin underwent Tommy John surgery. Martino suggests that neither the Astros nor Twins are viewed as prime trade partners — likely because other interested parties have better MLB-ready arms to offer. It was reported this morning that the Twins and Mets have discussed Syndergaard, with the Mets showing particular interest in shortstop Royce Lewis and outfielder Alex Kirilloff.
Looking at the teams the Mets apparently believe to be fits, it’s a bit of an eyebrow-raiser to see the Yankees and Braves listed. The Yankees and Mets haven’t lined up on a trade in more than a decade, and the frequent reports out of New York portraying the contempt that Mets owner Fred Wilpon has toward the Yankees make a deal of this nature seem decidedly unlikely. Meanwhile, trading Syndergaard to a division rival would be difficult for Mets fans to stomach, particularly given that he’s controlled through the 2021 season.
Whether the Houston organization can put together a compelling package for Syndergaard, they’ll have other things to talk about with the Mets front office. The ‘Stros are “one of many” teams that have interest in Wheeler, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Martino tweets that the Yankees also remain interested in Wheeler and will be watching intently this evening.
Royals Working On Jake Diekman Trade
12:02pm: The Dodgers stood out as the likely “frontrunners” from the start, tweets Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. However, he adds that the Nationals and Phillies both still have Diekman on their radar.
11:53am: The Royals “could be getting closer” to a trade involving left-handed reliever Jake Diekman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Both the Braves and Dodgers have been showing strong interest in the southpaw, he adds.
Diekman, 32, is playing out the season on a one-year, $2.25MM contract, though he’s also owed a $500K buyout on a $5.75MM mutual option that doesn’t seem likely to be exercised (as is the case with virtually all mutual options). That puts the remaining obligation to Diekman around $1.3MM between now and season’s end.
While Diekman’s 4.75 ERA isn’t going to excite most fans, he’s also notched a hefty 13.6 K/9 mark and kept the ball on the ground at a 48-4 percent clip. Left-handed opponents have batted just .213 and slugged .255 against him. As has oft been the case for Diekman throughout his career, though, control has been an issue. He’s averaged five walks per nine innings pitched this season and plunked another eight hitters. As such, Diekman has yielded an overall .213/.362/.255 line to lefties and a .211/.331/.358 line to right-handed hitters.
Diekman is technically controlled beyond the 2019 season, but mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. Typically, if a player performs well enough to justify that salary, he’s inclined to test the open market. And if a player doesn’t perform up to that standard, the club will of course buy the option out. Perhaps the changing landscape of free agency will make a player such as Diekman — one with limited earning power but who could justify a net $5.25MM decision with a strong finish — more likely to exercise his half of the provision, but there’s limited historic precedent.
Ender Inciarte Hopes To Stay With Braves
Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte is facing an uncertain future as the trade deadline approaches, having struggled this season and lost his place as a regular in the club’s lineup. Despite his downturn in playing time, Inciarte told Jeff Schultz of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has no desire to leave the Braves.
“I haven’t heard if I’m going to get traded or not,” said Inciarte, who added: “If you ask me, would I rather be somewhere else, the answer is I’d rather not. I love Atlanta. There’s not any other uniform I’d like to wear.”
Rookie Austin Riley swiped Inciarte’s starting role after the veteran went to the injured list with a lumbar strain May 15. Inciarte returned a week ago after a two-month absence, but he has only collected 10 plate appearances since then. The Braves have typically deployed an outfield consisting of Riley in left, Ronald Acuna Jr. in center (Inciarte’s usual position) and Nick Markakis in right since Inciarte went down.
The Braves’ new outfield (mostly Acuna) has notched good production, though Riley’s numbers have tanked since a sizzling start. In the aggregate, though, Riley’s .246/.298/.504 line with 16 home runs in 242 PA far outpaces the .205/.293/.303 slash and two HRs Inciarte has put up across 150 PA. Moreover, the 28-year-old Inciarte owns the majors’ second-lowest average exit velocity (78.3 mph), per Statcast, which doesn’t show much of a gap between his paltry .262 weighted on-base average and his .271 expected wOBA. Needless to say, those numbers don’t bode well for a turnaround.
It’s true that Inciarte has never been an offensive force, but he was almost a league-average hitter with the Diamondbacks and Braves from 2014-18. Combining that with stellar defense and quality base running was enough to make Inciarte a solid starter prior to this season, and it helped convince the Braves to ink him to a five-year, $30.525MM extension in advance of the 2017 campaign. Thanks to that deal, Inciarte’s playing this year on a $5MM salary and will earn a combined $15MM over the next two seasons ($7MM in 2020, $8MM in ’21). Not long ago, those looked like bargain figures for Inciarte, but his disastrous 2019 – along with lessening his importance to the Braves – has surely done a number on his trade value.
Rangers Acquire Shane Carle, Designate Kyle Dowdy
The Rangers have acquired right-hander Shane Carle from the Braves for cash considerations, per an announcement from John Blake, Texas’ executive vice president of communications. Carle has been optioned to Triple-A Nashville. To make room for Carle, the Rangers activated righty Kyle Dowdy from the 10-day IL and designated him for assignment.
Carle was DFA’ed by the Braves yesterday after posting a 9.64 ERA over just 9 1/3 innings of work this season. Carle emerged as a workhorse with a 63-inning performance out of Atlanta’s bullpen in 2018, though his performance began to fade even down the stretch last year, despite an overall 2.86 ERA. While strikeouts have never been a huge aspect of Carle’s game, he has missed more bats than usual at Triple-A Gwinnett this season, with an 8.4 K/9 rate over 33 1/3 frames. Those extra K’s haven’t helped Carle avoid a 5.13 ERA for Gwinnett, however.
A change of scenery could be just what Carle needs, as he does boast some very good velocity (94.7 mph average fastball over his 76 1/3 IP in the big leagues) and a 4.14 ERA over 562 2/3 innings in the minors. He’s a fairly low-cost acquisition for Texas, and an arm that could provide more immediate MLB upside than Dowdy.
Originally a member of the Indians’ farm system, Dowdy was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 Draft and then claimed off waivers by the Rangers during Spring Training. Dowdy had a 7.25 ERA over his first 22 1/3 innings in the majors before going on the injured list in early June with an elbow impingement. If Dowdy clears DFA waivers, the Rangers will have to offer him back to Cleveland.
Royals Rumors: Merrifield, Diekman
Royals utilityman Whit Merrifield is unsurprisingly drawing interest from contenders with the trade deadline just a few days away. The Cubs, Braves and Phillies are among the teams eyeing Merrifield, but it appears they’ll have to look elsewhere. The Royals are telling teams they’re not going to deal him, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports.
Even though the Royals are just 39-64 this season and will have trouble pushing for a playoff spot in the near future, the 30-year-old Merrifield has never looked like an especially realistic trade candidate. Royals general manager Dayton Moore hasn’t made it any secret he has an affinity for Merrifield, who he said in June is “one of the best players in all of baseball right now.” Moore also stated then it would take a “crazy” offer for Kansas City to move Merrifield, whom it signed to a four-year, $16.25MM extension in the offseason.
On a KC team with few major bright spots, Merrifield has continued his run as an eminently valuable performer this year. He has slashed .306/.357/.495 (122 wRC+) with 49 extra-base hits (28 doubles, 12 home runs, nine triples) and 15 steals on 23 attempts in 470 plate appearances. Merrifield has also chipped in 4 Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating between second base and the outfield. The entire package has been worth 2.9 bWAR/2.7 fWAR. Between Merrifield’s affordability and his on-field excellence, there’s a case the rebuilding Royals should trade him – they’d surely net an exorbitant return – but it doesn’t look as if it’s going to happen.
Meanwhile, reliever Jake Diekman seems almost guaranteed to change uniforms by the end of the month. In addition to the already reported Phillies, Dodgers and Nationals, Diekman has drawn interest from the Cubs, Cardinals and Braves, per Morosi. Diekman, 32, is on a $2.75MM guarantee and has a $5.75MM mutual option for 2020. The hard-throwing left-hander has pitched to a pedestrian 4.75 ERA in 41 2/3 innings this season. But he has logged a far better 3.36 FIP with 13.61 K/9, 4.97 BB/9 and a 48.4 percent groundball rate.
Latest On Braves’ Jacob Webb
Atlanta’s bullpen is one of the few legitimate areas of concern for the first-place club as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. The Braves, cognizant they’re in need of upgrades, have been connected to Blue Jays closer Ken Giles, Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens and multiple White Sox relievers on the rumor mill in recent days, and there are likely more late-game arms on the team’s radar.
The Braves are in search of help because they haven’t gotten nearly enough from the majority of their current options. Of their healthy arms, only Luke Jackson, Anthony Swarzak and Sean Newcomb have posted high-quality numbers over at least 20 innings of work apiece. Right-hander Jacob Webb has also been eminently productive, having notched a tremendous 1.39 ERA through 32 1/3 frames, but the 25-year-old rookie hasn’t been a factor in recent weeks. Webb has totaled a mere three innings this month and hasn’t pitched since July 12 on account of an elbow impingement, and it doesn’t appear he’ll return to the Braves’ bullpen in the immediate future. Manager Brian Snitker indicated Wednesday that Webb’s set to miss “at least a couple more weeks,” Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes.
The latest news on Webb could further galvanize the Braves to bolster their bullpen in the next week. However, they’d have likely tried to do so even had he stayed healthy. The Braves are atop the NL East East at 60-43, meaning they don’t have to pick up anyone, but their lead has dwindled to 4 1/2 over the Nationals – whom they play 10 more times. Three of those games will take place next week, but the Braves won’t have Webb available for any of them.
Depending on the stats you look at, Webb may have been either supremely lucky or just flat-out excellent prior to landing on the IL. ERA indicators FIP (4.31), xFIP (5.14) and SIERA (4.54) suggest Webb has no business sporting such a pristine ERA, and his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.79 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 38.2 GB%) also paint a somewhat gloomy picture.
On the other hand, the hard-throwing Webb has been a wiz at preventing meaningful contact this season. Among 168 relievers who have thrown at least 30 innings, Webb checks in at 17th in infield fly percentage (17.5). He also ranks near the top of the league in several Statcast categories, including expected weighted on-base average against. Hitters have mustered a weak .287 wOBA off Webb, which aligns with an even better .281 xwOBA. Webb’s first among Braves relievers in the former category, while only Jackson has outdone him in the latter.
Braves Designate Shane Carle For Assignment
The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve designated right-hander Shane Carle for assignment in order to open a 40-man roster spot for righty Jeremy Walker, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Gwinnett. Right-hander Wes Parsons was optioned to Gwinnett to clear a spot on the 25-man roster.
Carle, 28 next month, is only months season removed from a 2018 season that saw him finish the year with a 2.86 ERA in 63 innings of work, although he looked quite unlikely to repeat that production moving forward. Carle averaged just 6.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 last season, surviving in large part due to a deflated .258 average on balls in play and excellent fortune in terms of home runs allowed (0.29 HR/9, 4.2% HR/FB).
Carle’s end-of-season numbers were buoyed by a particularly hot start to the season; however, after posting a 0.69 ERA in his first 26 innings, the righty came down to Earth with a 4.38 ERA and an unpalatable 24-to-21 K/BB ratio in his final 37 innings of work.
This season has been a particularly ugly one for Carle. In 9 1/3 big league innings he’s allowed 10 runs, walked nine batters and hit three more while striking out just six. His Triple-A results haven’t been much more encouraging, as he’s limped to a 5.13 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. To Carle’s credit, he’s had the BABIP pendulum swing the other direction against him with Gwinnett, as he’s seen hitters bat .356 on balls put into play against him. He’s still limiting homers (0.54 HR/9) in amid talk of juiced balls in one of the most hitter-friendly seasons the International League has ever seen.
Carle has an option remaining beyond the 2019 season, so a club in need of some bullpen help could certainly take a look at him as middle relief depth. The Braves will spend the next week trying to trade him but could also try to pass him throughout outright waivers (although last season’s success and the remaining option make him a decent bet to be claimed).
As for Walker, 24, he carved up Double-A opponents this season before a brief 11-inning stopover in Gwinnett. The 2016 fifth-round pick is now slated to make his MLB debut on the heels of 69 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA ball and a 71-to-8 K/BB ratio between Double-A and Triple-A.