Marlins Claim Forrest Wall
The Marlins announced Thursday that they’ve claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers from the division-rival Braves. Wall has been optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Miami already had an open 40-man roster spot, so no corresponding moves were necessary.
The 28-year-old Wall hit .241/.313/.241 in a small sample of 32 plate appearances with Atlanta this season. He’s seen big league time with the Braves in two straight seasons now but has been primarily a reserve player who’s been up due to his speed. He’s gone 8-for-12 in stolen base attempts but had greater success and more prolific base-stealing numbers in the minors.
Looking past that quick look with the Braves, most of Wall’s 2024 season has been spent in Triple-A Gwinnett. He’s slashed .279/.380/.411 with a 12.1% walk rate, 25.1% strikeout rate and a dozen steals in 51 games. Wall typically draws walks at a high clip in the upper minors and makes opponents pay with his wheels. He’s a career .268/.354/.387 hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons, and he’s swiped 152 bases in 353 games there. He’s played all three outfield positions and also has more than 2100 professional innings at second base.
Wall still has two minor league option years remaining beyond the current season, so if the Fish want to keep him on the roster, he can be a piece of their outfield puzzle for a few years to come. Wall doesn’t have much power but clocks into the 93rd percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. Miami’s long-term outfield picture is rather thin at the moment, so bringing in a versatile OBP- and speed-focused outfielder with options left makes some sense — particularly if they trade center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. or (less likely) one of Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez in the coming days.
Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin
The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.
The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.
Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.
A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.
Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.
That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.
He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.
With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.
Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.
That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.
Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.
The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.
The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.
Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.
Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.
The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.
Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.
Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.
The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.
Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.
Braves Designate Zack Short For Assignment
The Braves announced this morning that they’ve designated infielder Zack Short for assignment. His roster spot will go to third baseman Austin Riley, who’s been reinstated from the paternity list. Atlanta also recalled right-hander Daysbel Hernandez from Triple-A Gwinnett. They had an open active roster spot after optioning southpaw Zach Logue to Gwinnett last night.
Short, 29, has appeared in 30 games with the Braves this season. He’s taken 69 plate appearances and struggled to a .148/.313/.204 batting line. Short has shown good plate discipline in that small sample (17.4% walk rate), as has been the case throughout his big league career (12.3% walk rate in 538 plate appearances). Even with that keen eye, however, Short carries a lifetime .167/.269/.287 in the majors. He’s a versatile defender who can play all over the infield, though defensive metrics suggest he’s best suited at second base. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, he’s a .224/.357/.400 hitter.
Atlanta will trade Short or attempt to pass him through outright waivers within the next five days. Waivers would be an additional 48-hour process. If he were to go unclaimed, Short would stick in the Braves organization as a depth option because he does not have a prior outright assignment or sufficient major league service time to reject an outright in favor of free agency. Short is out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will have to place him directly on the MLB roster.
MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Is the lack of sellers going to be an issue this year and going forward with the expanded playoffs? (2:10)
- The White Sox could sell Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr., Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, John Brebbia and others (6:30)
- The Marlins have Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and others possibly available (16:40)
- Will the Athletics move Brent Rooker and what is his value? (22:35)
- Will the Rockies trade Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber and others? (36:00)
- Will the Angels trade Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning? (49:05)
- The Cubs and Jameson Taillon (51:35)
- The Tigers and Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal (59:55)
- Would the Orioles get Flaherty again? If not him, what other impact starting pitchers are possibly available? (1:05:35)
- The Rays and Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Pete Fairbanks, Zach Eflin, Zack Littell and others (1:15:10)
- The Blue Jays will trade rentals but what about Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman or George Springer? (1:22:00)
- How will the Yankees approach the deadline? Will they remake their infield? If so, how? (1:30:40)
- How aggressive will the Orioles be at the deadline? (1:40:10)
- How useful his ERA these days? (1:46:55)
- The Braves and the deadline (1:51:20)
- The Dodgers and the Phillies (1:53:30)
- The Guardians and Brewers (1:56:25)
- The Twins and the deadline (1:58:20)
- The Royals and their outfield (1:59:40)
- The Pirates (2:03:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets – listen here
- Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here
- The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Braves Select Zach Logue
Between games of today’s doubleheader, the Braves announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Zach Logue. Righty Allan Winans was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett in a corresponding move while outfielder Michael Harris II was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot. Atlanta also announced righty Daysbel Hernández as their 27th man for the doubleheader, though the second contest of that twin bill was postponed after these roster moves were announced.
Logue, 28, signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in the offseason and has been working in a swing role in the minors this year. He has tossed 76 2/3 innings on the farm over 19 appearances, 11 of those being starts. He has allowed 2.93 earned runs per nine innings with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate.
That will get him back to the big leagues, perhaps to provide some length out of the bullpen. Yesterday’s game against the Reds was postponed by the weather, which led to today’s planned doubleheader. Since Atlanta also played a twin bill on Saturday against the Cardinals, it was shaping up to be quite a week, though today’s second contest has now been banged as well.
Whenever Logue gets into a game, he’ll be adding to a track record that includes 68 innings with the Athletics and Tigers. He has a 6.88 ERA in that fairly small sample of work. His minor league work has been better at times and he was once a notable prospect in the Blue Jays’ system, going to the A’s in the Matt Chapman trade.
Logue had a 3.67 ERA on the farm in 2021, striking out 28.2% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 5.3% clip over 125 innings. It was after that season that he was flipped to Oakland but then he posted a 6.79 ERA in the majors and a mark of 8.12 in Triple-A. He went to the Tigers on waivers and continued struggling in 2023, with a 7.36 ERA in the bigs and 6.58 ERA in Triple-A.
But after two rough years, he seems to be back in good form here in 2024. He can cover some innings out of the bullpen and still has an option that Atlanta could use to send him back down to the minors. He has less than a year of service time and could be retained for future seasons if he continues hanging onto his 40-man spot.
As for Harris, he’s been on the injured list since the middle of June due to a Grade 2 hamstring strain. He’ll now be ineligible to be reinstated until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which would be the middle of August. He still has yet to begin a rehab assignment and would likely need some time to get back in game shape even if he were cleared to play in the near future.
Braves Designate Forrest Wall For Assignment
The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve designated outfielder Forrest Wall for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to infield prospect Nacho Alvarez Jr., whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Gwinnett to take the place of second baseman Ozzie Albies.
Albies, who suffered a fractured wrist this weekend is expected to miss up to eight weeks of action, has been placed on the 10-day IL for now. Alvarez’s promotion to the majors was first reported last night. Atlanta also formally announced its previously reported major league deal with veteran infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield and optioned outfielder Eli White to Gwinnett. The team’s 40-man roster is now full.
Wall, 28, got into 13 games with the Braves this season and hit .241/.313/.241 in a tiny sample of 32 plate appearances. He’s seen limited action on Atlanta’s big league roster in each of the past two seasons now, due in large part to his plus speed, but he went just 3-for-6 in stolen base attempts this season (after going 5-for-6 in a similar sample of playing time a year ago).
Wall has spent the bulk of the 2024 season in Gwinnett, where he’s put together a solid .279/.380/.411 slash with a big 12.1% walk rate but also a higher-than-average 25.1% strikeout rate. He posted a comparable .280/.372/.427 line with Gwinnett in 2023.
The Braves have used Wall at all three outfield spots in the majors, though the vast majority of his time has come in left field. He has ample experience at all three positions when factoring in his minor league time, and Wall also has more than 2100 innings at second base in his minor league career (though he’s not yet played the position in the majors).
Selected by the Rockies with the No. 35 overall draft pick back in 2014, Wall is a veteran of ten minor league seasons. The past two seasons with Atlanta represent his only MLB playing time to date. The lefty-swinging Wall is a lifetime .268/.354/.387 batter in just shy of 1500 Triple-A plate appearances. He’ll still have two minor league option years remaining beyond the current season. That could make him an intriguing pickup for a postseason contender who wants to utilize his 93rd percentile sprint speed down the stretch. He’s never been outrighted in the past and is well shy of three years of service, so if the Braves succeed in passing him through waivers, they’ll be able to retain him via an outright assignment back to Gwinnett and keep him as a depth option in the outfield.
Braves To Sign Whit Merrifield
The Braves are in agreement with infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield on a big league deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Braves’ 40-man roster currently stands at 39 prior to the deal, meaning the club will only need to accommodate Merrifield’s addition to the active roster with a corresponding move.
Merrifield, released by the Phillies earlier this month, figures to help cover second base in place of Ozzie Albies, who suffered a fractured wrist yesterday and is expected to be out of action for approximately eight weeks. Reporting yesterday indicated that the Braves plan to promote top infield prospect Nacho Alvarez to take over for Albies as their regular second baseman, and it appears the addition of Merrifield won’t change that. As noted by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, Merrifield is currently expected to take a bench role with the Braves, leaving the starting job at second base open for Alvarez.
The 35-year-old veteran is an excellent fit for Atlanta’s roster needs in a bench role, at least on paper. With clear holes at second base and in the outfield, Merrifield’s ability to play both left field and second base makes for a strong fit, allowing him to back up both Alvarez at second base and work into an outfield mix that currently features Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, Jarred Kelenic, and Ramon Laureano. That being said, Merrifield’s difficult stint with the Phillies gives some reason for concern about his ability to be an effective major league hitter at this stage of his career. In 174 trips to the plate this season with Philadelphia, Merrifield slashed a paltry .199/.277/.295 with a wRC+ of just 65.
Despite Merrifield’s lackluster performance with the Braves’ chief division rival, there are some reasons for optimism that his performance could improve going forward. While Merrifield is almost certainly not the above-average contributor he was earlier in his career with the Royals, for whom he posted a 111 wRC+ and 13.3 fWAR from 2017 to 2020, he nonetheless had a recent track record of being a serviceable bench bat in more recent years. Merrifield slashed a decent .268/.311/.385, good for a wRC+ of 90, with the Royals and Blue Jays between 2021 and 2023.
That sort of production still seems to be within the realm of possibility for the veteran, particularly looking at his underlying metrics. Merrifield’s 10.9% strikeout rate this year is actually the lowest of his big league career, and his 8.6% walk rate matches his career high from back in 2018. While Merrifield’s .096 ISO this year is the lowest of his career, the larger culprit for his downturn in performance appears to be his shockingly low .206 BABIP. Entering the 2024 campaign, Merrifield owned a healthy .321 BABIP for his career and had never posted a figure lower than .276 in any individual season. Even matching his previous career low set in 2022 would surely provide a noticeable lift in his production and make him a compelling bench piece when combined with his versatility and respectable 11-for-12 showing on the basepaths this year.
In addition to helping Alvarez cover for Albies at second base, the addition of Merrifield alongside Rosario earlier this month is somewhat reminiscent of Atlanta’s quantity-over-quality approach to retooling their outfield at the trade deadline in 2021, when they loaded up on rental outfield pieces in the form of Rosario, Duvall, Joc Pederson, and Jorge Soler in order to help boost the outfield’s production following the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. to season-ending ACL surgery. With Acuna once again done for the year in 2024, the signing of Merrifield could serve as an indication that the Braves intend to follow a similar path forward this year rather than spend significant prospect capital to land a more significant piece like Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the Marlins or Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox.
Ozzie Albies To Miss Eight Weeks With Wrist Fracture; Braves To Select Nacho Alvarez
4:58pm: The Braves announced this afternoon that X-Rays on Albies’s wrist revealed a fracture in his left wrist. He’s expected to miss approximately eight weeks. Atlanta is “expected” to select Alvarez’s contract tomorrow to replace Albies on the roster, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Bowman suggests that the youngster will play second base despite Alvarez’s lack of experience at the keystone, leaving Arcia as the club’s everyday shortstop.
4:33pm: Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies exited today’s game in the ninth inning due to a left wrist injury. As noted by David O’Brien of The Athletic, Albies’s wrist was bent backwards when he attempted to tag a runner out a second base amid a stolen base attempt. The Braves have not made an official move yet, but manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including O’Brien) after the game that Albies will be placed on the injured list and that while further evaluation necessary, the outlook on the injury is “not good.”
The loss of Albies is another devastating blow to a Braves club that has already seen both reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. and right-handed ace Spencer Strider undergo season-ending surgery. With Albies set to join that duo as well as center fielder Michael Harris II and star lefty Max Fried on the shelf, the Braves will limp towards the trade deadline protecting a four-game lead in the NL Wild Card race without five of their biggest stars. While Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez have stepped up this season as front-of-the-rotation arms and Jarred Kelenic has performed admirably since being thrust into an everyday role as the club’s center fielder in place of Harris, there are no obvious solutions for replacing Albies on the club’s active roster.
Even average offensive production would be an adequate replacement for Albies at the plate, as the 27-year-old has been dealing with a bit of a down season this year. In 89 games this season, the infielder has slashed a roughly league average .255/.308/.403 across 390 trips to the plate. Even so, the club’s dearth of quality infield depth means that the Braves are likely to be scrambling for solutions in Albies’s absence, particularly if it proves to be a lengthy one as Snitker implied.
Earlier this year, infielder Zack Short was tapped to handle third base in place of an injured Austin Riley and rose to the call effectively. While he has experience at second base as well, he’s slumped badly in bench role since Riley’s return to the lineup and sports a slash line of just .077/.250/.077 since the start of June. That could lead the Braves to look toward the minor leagues. The club turned to David Fletcher in a utility role earlier this year, but he is no longer on the 40-man roster and has begun attempting to convert to pitching at the Double-A level, suggesting he’s unlikely to be called up to replace Albies. One option currently on the 40-man would be infielder Luke Williams, although his career .220/.280/.287 slash line in the majors certainly leaves something to be desired.
Perhaps the most exciting moves the Braves could make, barring a trade to improve the club’s overall infield mix, would be the promotion of top infield prospect Nacho Alvarez. Alvarez is ranked as the club’s #5 prospect by MLB Pipeline and has lit up the scoreboards in the minor leagues this year. In 75 games split between the Double- and Triple-A levels this year, the 21-year-old has slashed an eye-opening .295/.398/.420 while going 21-for-24 on the basepaths. One potential hiccup in that plan would be Alvarez’s complete lack of experience at second base, though the club could always plug him in at shortstop and shift veteran Orlando Arcia, who played 50 games for the Braves at the keystone in 2022, over to the right side of the infield alongside first baseman Matt Olson.
It’s possible that a lengthy absence for Albies could prompt the Braves to explore the infield market, particularly if the club feels Alvarez isn’t ready for his big league debut. Pieces such as Amed Rosario of the Rays and Brandon Drury of the Angels are among the veteran rentals who could be made available this summer, although the Rays have gone 6-3 over their last nine games to put themselves back into contention while Drury has suffered through an abysmal season at the plate this year. With clear needs in the starting rotation and outfield as well, it’s possible at Atlanta brass opt instead to rely on their internal options at the keystone while Albies is injured, instead working to add an outfield who can replace Acuna while taking pressure off of Kelenic and Adam Duvall, both of whom have been forced into everyday roles by injuries after starting the season as platoon partners.
Braves Place Max Fried On Injured List
The Braves announced today that left-hander Max Fried has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 18, with left forearm neuritis. Lefty Dylan Dodd was recalled in a corresponding move.
At this point, it’s unclear how significant Fried’s injury is or when it occurred. His most recent outing for Atlanta saw him throw six innings against the Diamondbacks on July 11. He was selected to the National League All-Star team and then tossed a scoreless inning against the American League in that game. Until he was placed on the IL, there had been no public reporting that anything was amiss.
More information will likely be forthcoming but this figures to be a significant development either way. Atlanta came into this season with a front five in their rotation of Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale and Reynaldo López. Strider required UCL surgery in April and is done for the year.
For as long as Fried is out, the club will be down to a rotation nucleus of Morton, Sale and López, who are each having great years but with some lingering concerns. Sale has been frequently injured in recent seasons and his 110 innings thrown this year are the most for him since 2019. López started earlier in his career but was moved to the bullpen a few years ago. Atlanta has moved him back to the rotation with success but he has also thrown more innings this year than he has since 2019. Morton continues to find success but is now 40 years old and his strikeout rate is down for a third straight year.
Atlanta is currently 54-43 on the year, 7.5 games back of the Phillies in the East division but currently holding the top Wild Card spot. Given their rotation situation, they were probably going to be looking for upgrades before the July 30 deadline but it’s possible that search will now ramp up with this injury to Fried. Some potential trade candidates include Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Garrett Crochet and many more.
In the meantime, they will have to cobble things together behind Morton, Sale and López. They don’t have an off-day between now and the deadline and played a double-header against the Cardinals yesterday. Neither Hurston Waldrep nor Huascar Ynoa will be able to help out, as both of them are currently on the IL. Ynoa started a rehab assignment on July 16 but only tossed two innings and probably needs a few more outings to build up.
Spencer Schwellenbach is having a good start to his career and should stick around, though it’s also only been eight starts so far. Ian Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery last year but has been rehabbing lately, with five starts on the farm in recent weeks. Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Allan Winans, Darius Vines and Dodd are also on the 40-man and could be in the mix to help out.
For Fried personally, he is headed for free agency at the end of this season and was trending towards a nice payday. He has over 800 innings on his track record with a 3.08 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 54.1% ground ball rate, with health not being a huge factor for most of the time. From 2019 to 2022, he made at least 28 starts in each full season and also took the ball 11 times in the shortened 2020 campaign. He also added just under 60 playoff innings in that four-year stretch.
He did miss about three months last year due to a left forearm strain, in addition to missing time due to a hamstring strain and a blister. He only made 14 starts last year but had been putting together a nice season in 2024 prior to this injury. He has already thrown 108 innings over 18 starts with a 3.08 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate is down a bit but he’s made opponents pound the ball into the ground at a 59% clip.
Fried placed fifth on MLBTR’s recent Free Agent Power Rankings, the #2 pitcher behind Corbin Burnes. He could still maintain that kind of earning power if he returns after a relatively brief absence and continues putting up strong numbers, but a more significant departure would obviously have an impact there as well.
Notable Draft Signings: 7/19/24
Friday saw a handful of top 10 picks put pen to paper, including #1 overall selection Travis Bazzana. We’ve already covered significant deals for Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Christian Moore and Seaver King this afternoon. A few more notable draft signings of the past 24 hours:
- The Marlins agreed to a $3.4MM deal with first-round pick PJ Morlando, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s well shy of the approximate $4.7MM slot value of the 16th overall selection. While it’s somewhat rare to see a high school player sign for well below slot, the deal allowed Morlando to push into the middle of the first round. FanGraphs, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each ranked the South Carolina commit between 33rd and 52nd in their pre-draft rankings. Evaluators credit the left-handed hitter with advanced contact skills and huge raw power that he shows mostly in batting practice. BA writes that Morlando entered the year as a potential top 10 pick but had a disappointing spring. Law suggests he’s likely to require a mechanical change in pro ball to better integrate his lower body into his swing. Morlando projects to left field or first base, putting a lot of pressure on him to maximize his offensive potential. The $3.4MM bonus falls between the slot values of the 25th and 26th picks, valuing Morlando as a late first-round talent.
- The Braves are in agreement with 24th overall pick Cam Caminiti on a $3.5563MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). It’s full slot value for the Arizona prep left-hander. An LSU commit, Caminiti was the first high school pitcher off the board. Evaluators credit him with mid-90s fastball velocity and an advanced changeup. Law writes that the 6’2″ southpaw developed his curveball into an average or better offering this spring. There’s plenty of risk with the high school pitching demographic, but Caminiti has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
- Supplemental first-round pick Griff O’Ferrall is in agreement with the Orioles on a $2.7MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s just shy of the $2.84MM slot value for the 32nd pick. A shortstop from the University of Virginia, O’Ferrall was a divisive pre-draft prospect. McDaniel and Law each had the right-handed hitter among the 35 best players in the class. He ranked 49th at FanGraphs and 115th on Baseball America’s draft board. O’Ferrall makes a ton of contact, striking out just 24 times in 323 plate appearances (a 7.4% rate) in his draft year. He hit .324/.367/.454 with five homers over 63 contests as a junior. The more optimistic reports suggest O’Ferrall could be a regular at shortstop based on his bat-to-ball skills and an above-average glove. BA suggests his arm strength might push him to second base, where his minimal power upside could be more of a concern.