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Pirates Acquire Spencer Horwitz From Guardians

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The Pirates announced the acquisition of first baseman/second baseman Spencer Horwitz from the Guardians for a three-player package: righty Luis Ortiz and left-handed pitching prospects Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy. Cleveland dealt Horwitz within hours of acquiring him from the Blue Jays in this afternoon’s Andrés Giménez deal.

Horwitz, 27, looks as if he’ll get a crack at Pittsburgh’s starting first base job. He would’ve been an imperfect fit on a Cleveland team that already has Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo. There’s a much clearer path to playing time in Pittsburgh. The Bucs used Rowdy Tellez as their primary first baseman for most of the ’24 season. He didn’t perform well and was cut loose at the end of the year.

The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.

Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. Toronto used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.

The Bucs don’t have a great option at second base either. Nick Gonzales is the in-house favorite on the heels of a pedestrian .270/.311/.398 showing. The Pirates will probably stick with Gonzales at the keystone and use Horwitz at first, but the latter is at least capable of kicking over to second base as a fill-in option.

Horwitz has yet to reach a full year of MLB service. He’s under club control for six years. He’ll very likely be eligible for arbitration after two seasons as a Super Two qualifier, but the Bucs will get a couple years of what they hope is a plug-and-play first baseman on roughly league minimum salaries. It’s questionable whether Horwitz has sufficient power to profile as an everyday option. If he hits his ceiling, he’d probably project as a LaMonte Wade Jr. type who gets on base enough to be a solid regular. Pittsburgh’s first-year hitting coach Matt Hague worked for Toronto in recent years and is surely bullish on Horwitz’s offensive acumen.

Ortiz is the only member of the trio heading to Cleveland who has MLB experience. The 25-year-old righty has pitched in a swing role over the past couple years. Ortiz struggled over his first two seasons but turned in a quietly strong ’24 campaign. He started 15 of 37 appearances and logged 135 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Ortiz managed solid results no matter what role he was asked to play. He turned in a 3.22 mark out of the rotation while allowing 3.49 earned runs per nine in relief.

The underlying profile didn’t match the strong ERA. Ortiz neither gets ground-balls nor strikeouts at high rates. His 8.8% swinging strike percentage was well below average. To his credit, Ortiz did take a major step forward with his control this year. After walking at least 12% of opponents in his first two seasons, he limited the free passes to a 7.6% clip.

Ortiz will have a tough time repeating this year’s success unless he finds a way to miss more bats. That’s not out of the question, as he has intriguing raw stuff. Ortiz sits in the 95-96 MPH range with both his four-seam and sinking fastball. He found a lot of success with a mid-80s slider that served as his top secondary offering. If he can sustain this year’s command while finding a better swing-and-miss pitch, he’d have a shot to be a mid-rotation arm. If not, he could find himself back in the bullpen as a long reliever.

The Guardians have a solid track record of pitching development, but they’re thin in the rotation for the second straight season. Tanner Bibee is the only lock for their season-opening rotation. Gavin Williams and Ben Lively will probably occupy back-end roles. Ortiz has a decent shot of cracking the front five, which would also include one of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen or Joey Cantillo if they don’t make any further additions. Shane Bieber re-signed and could factor in by May or June as he works back from Tommy John surgery.

It’s still a relatively weak group, but the Guardians papered over a poor rotation by relying on a dominant bullpen this past season. While they’ll likely need to do so again, Cleveland could add at least one more starter via free agency or trade. Pittsburgh has a lot of upper level pitching talent, so Ortiz would’ve had an uphill battle to hold off arms like Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler for a rotation spot.

Ortiz lands between one and two service years. He’s at least one season from arbitration and could find himself on the border of Super Two eligibility next winter. Regardless of whether he gets to arbitration early, he won’t become a free agent for five seasons.

The Bucs also pay a bit of a prospect price to even the deal. Hartle was Pittsburgh’s third-round pick this summer. The Wake Forest product entered the spring as a potential first-round talent before struggling to a 5.97 ERA in his junior season.

Baseball America wrote in their draft report that Hartle has good command with fringy stuff. He sits in the low 90s with roughly average secondary pitches. It’s not the highest-upside profile on paper, but this is the type of arm with whom the Guardians’ player development department has thrived. Bibee and Bieber were also command-oriented college draftees whose stuff didn’t take off until they got into pro ball. While that’s certainly not a guarantee that Hartle will progress the same way, it’s not a surprise that he’s of interest to Cleveland.

Kennedy, 20, was a fourth-round pick out of a New York high school in 2023. He made 18 appearances in the low minors this year, working to a 3.66 ERA with a near-28% strikeout rate over 83 2/3 frames. As with Hartle, he draws praise for his athleticism and control but has subpar velocity. They’re each developmental fliers who have a shot to stick as starters if their stuff comes along.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Pirates were acquiring Horwitz. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the return going to Cleveland. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet suggested earlier this evening that Horwitz might end up being flipped to Pittsburgh. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Preparing Offer To Corbin Burnes

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The Red Sox are preparing a formal contract offer to Corbin Burnes, write Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive. The former Cy Young winner is the final clear top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency.

Boston came up empty in their pursuit of Max Fried. While the Sox were one of Fried’s top suitors, they balked at the massive $218MM guarantee which the southpaw landed from their rivals. The Red Sox have also seen reported targets Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi head elsewhere. The supply is limiting if the Sox are going to follow through on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s stated goal of “raising the ceiling” in the rotation.

Burnes would obviously accomplish that. While the righty hasn’t missed as many bats over the past couple seasons as he did during his best years in Milwaukee, he’s still an ace. Burnes fired 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the Orioles in his platform year. He added eight innings with one run allowed in his lone postseason start. If the Red Sox were to land Burnes, they’d have one of the stronger rotations in MLB. He’d top a staff also including Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and a hopefully healthy Lucas Giolito.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes would receive a seven-year, $200MM commitment. That’ll almost certainly be light. Burnes was above Fried on virtually every contract prediction (MLBTR’s included). This has been a very strong market for starting pitchers. There’s a chance Burnes could land eight or even nine years on a deal that checks in between $250MM and $300MM at this point.

The Giants and Blue Jays are also known to be involved on Burnes. Baltimore has expressed a desire to keep him around, but that seems to be a longer shot. As a player who rejected a qualifying offer, he’d cost the Sox their second-highest draft pick and $500K of pool space from their 2026 international signing class.

Burnes isn’t the only qualified free agent (nor the lone high-profile Boras Corporation client) whom the Sox are pursuing. Boston is reportedly in the mix for Alex Bregman. In a separate column, McAdam writes that the third baseman is something of a divisive player in the Fenway Park offices. According to McAdam, manager Alex Cora and team president Sam Kennedy are more keen on a Bregman pursuit than Breslow happens to be. Cora is personally familiar with Bregman from his time as bench coach in Houston.

Whether Breslow is lower on Bregman as a player or simply prefers to focus his attention on starting pitching, that’s a potential complicating factor for free agency’s top remaining position player. The Sox presumably aren’t going to come away with both Burnes and Bregman. They could keep Rafael Devers at third base or pursue a Nolan Arenado trade if Bregman heads elsewhere. If they’re looking for a top-of-the-rotation arm and come up empty on Burnes, they’d likely go to the trade market. Reports have cast them more on the periphery of the Garrett Crochet bidding. The Sox floated the possibility of swapping Triston Casas for one of Seattle’s starters, but the Mariners rebuffed that interest while expressing a desire to hold their young pitching.

Rocky Colavito Passes Away

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Nine-time All-Star Rocky Colavito has passed away, the Guardians announced. The longtime MLB slugger was 91.

A native of the Bronx, Colavito signed with the Indians out of high school. He had consecutive 30-plus home run seasons in Triple-A and played his way to Cleveland by his age-21 season. Colavito carried that over against MLB pitching, hitting 21 homers over 101 games as a rookie in 1956. He finished runner-up to Luis Aparicio in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Colavito hit 25 homers in 1957.  By the ’58 season, he was one of the sport’s most feared power bats. Colavito popped 41 homers while hitting .303 with an MLB-best .620 slugging percentage at age 24. He placed third in that year’s MVP balloting. Colavito drove in 113 runs that season and tallied 111 RBI the next. On June 10, 1959, he became the eighth player in MLB history to hit four homers in a game. He led the American League with 42 longballs en route to his first All-Star nod and a fourth-place MVP finish.

Early in the 1960 season, Cleveland traded Colavito to the Tigers in a one-for-one deal for star shortstop Harvey Kuenn. While Colavito hit 35 homers during his first season in Detroit, his average dropped to .249 in a disappointing overall season. He had a major rebound in ’61, as he set career marks in homers (45) and RBI (140). He hit .290 with a .402 on-base percentage, ranking top 10 among qualified hitters in OBP and OPS. He placed eighth in MVP voting in what was arguably the best year of his career.

Colavito played two more seasons in Detroit. He hit another 37 homers while leading the AL with 309 total bases in ’62. Detroit dealt him to the Athletics over the 1963-64 offseason. Colavito hit .274 with 34 longballs for the then Kansas City-based franchise. Things came full circle the next winter, as the A’s traded him back to Cleveland. Colavito combined for 56 homers over the next two seasons and paced the AL with 108 RBI in 1965. He saw limited playing time with the White Sox, Yankees and Dodgers to close his 14-year playing career.

A career .266/.359/.489 hitter, Colavito was one of the best run producers of his day. He drove in 1159 runs on more than 1700 hits, 379 of which cleared the fences. Colavito had seven 30-homer seasons, including a trio of years with at least 40 longballs. He topped 100 runs batted in on six occasions. Colavito is 81st on the all-time leaderboard in home runs and slots in the top 200 in RBI. While he never got much consideration from voters for Cooperstown, he was inducted into the Cleveland franchise’s Hall of Fame in 2006.

Colavito’s impact on baseball extended well beyond his playing days. He worked in the sport for decades as a coach and radio broadcaster. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and many fans.

Pirates, Elvis Alvarado Agree To MLB Deal

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The Pirates are in agreement with reliever Elvis Alvarado on a major league split contract, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). The righty gets a 40-man roster spot with the Bucs, a notable development for a minor league free agent.

Alvarado secures a 40-man spot for the first time in his career. The 6’4″ righty has bounced around in minor league free agency. He has appeared in the Nationals, Mariners, Tigers and Marlins systems. Alvarado spent most of the ’24 campaign in Triple-A with Miami. He had a strong season, working to a 2.79 ERA in 48 1/3 innings. He struck out a third of opponents but walked an untenable 18% of batters faced.

The Bucs are clearly intrigued by Alvarado’s swing-and-miss ability. His command remains a serious work in progress. There’s not a ton of downside for Pittsburgh, which has a handful of open 40-man spots. Alvarado has a full slate of minor league options and will probably begin the season at Triple-A Indianapolis. The split deal means he’s paid at differing rates for his MLB and minor league work. He’ll very likely be paid around the MLB minimum for whatever time he spends at PNC Park.

Blue Jays Acquire Andres Gimenez

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The Blue Jays and Guardians are in agreement on a four-player trade sending second baseman Andrés Giménez to Toronto. The Jays get Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin for infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell. No cash is changing hands, so the Jays are absorbing the final five years of the Giménez contract.

It’s the first out of nowhere trade of the Winter Meetings. While it’s never a complete shock to see Cleveland deal a high-priced player, there hadn’t been much to suggest they were shopping their Gold Glove second baseman. Giménez appeared to be a core piece since he signed one of the biggest contracts in franchise history just two seasons back: a seven-year, $106.5MM extension.

Instead, the defensive stalwart is on the move for the second time in his career. Giménez began his career with the Mets, where his well-rounded profile made him one of the system’s top prospects. Cleveland acquired him alongside Amed Rosario as the key pieces in their return for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco during the 2020-21 offseason.

Giménez struggled during his first year in Cleveland, but he had a breakout showing in 2022. He played plus defense to win his first Gold Glove. Giménez also turned in an impact season at the plate, hitting .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers across 557 plate appearances. He was a deserved All-Star and finished sixth in MVP balloting in the American League.

Following that breakout season, the Guardians signed Giménez to the aforementioned extension. It remains the second-largest investment in the organization’s history, not too far behind the $124MM deal which José Ramírez inked the preceding spring. Cleveland surely envisioned building their long-term infield around that duo.

That’s not quite how things played out, as Giménez’s bat has taken a step backward. The Guardians probably didn’t expect him to repeat the offensive production he managed in 2022. He had a lofty .353 average on balls in play that would be hard to maintain, nor was he likely to be hit by as many pitches (an AL-high 25) as he’d been that year. Giménez’s numbers probably dropped off more sharply than Cleveland anticipated, though, as he has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons.

In 2023, the lefty-swinging Giménez hit .251/.314/.399 with 15 homers across 616 plate appearances. He improved his contact skills but saw his walk rate and power numbers take a step back. Those trends continued this year. Giménez managed just nine homers in 633 trips to the plate. He kept his strikeout rate to a tidy 15.3% clip but drew walks at a career-low 4.1% mark. He wrapped up the year with a middling .252/.298/.340 slash — his weakest offensive output over his three full seasons in Cleveland.

Despite the concerning offensive trends, Giménez remains a valuable all-around player. He has stolen 30 bases in consecutive seasons and is a good overall baserunner. He hasn’t had an injured list stint since 2020 and has topped 140 games in each of the last three seasons. Most significantly, he’s the sport’s best defensive second baseman. Giménez has been named the AL’s Gold Glove winner in three straight years. He has racked up 59 Defensive Runs Saved over that stretch. That’s well above Marcus Semien’s 37 mark that ranks second at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average doesn’t point to quite as big a discrepancy (49 to 40), but both metrics consider Giménez the game’s best keystone defender.

The Jays have poked around the market at second and third base. They have a handful of young players who are capable of manning one or both of those positions — Ernie Clement, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jiménez among them — but it’s a group light on MLB experience. Giménez has a much higher floor in the middle infield. He’ll play second base for at least the upcoming season. That’s probably his long-term home, though he could be an answer at shortstop if Bo Bichette walks next offseason. Giménez came up as a shortstop. He hasn’t played there since 2022, but he’s an athletic enough defender that he could probably handle the position.

The Jays are taking on a decent chunk of money to make that happen. Giménez is under contract for at least the next five seasons. He’ll make $10MM next year, $15MM in ’26, and $23MM annually for the final three guaranteed years. There’s a $23MM club option for the 2030 campaign that comes with a $2.5MM buyout. The deal also calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Including that bonus, Giménez is guaranteed $97.5MM for his age 26-30 campaigns. RosterResource calculates the Jays’ projected luxury tax number around $229MM, putting them roughly $12MM below next year’s base threshold.

Toronto also deepens a subpar middle relief group with the Sandlin acquisition. The low-slot righty has a solid track record over four years in the big leagues. Sandlin, who turns 28 next month, carries a 3.27 earned run average across 195 1/3 career innings. Despite a pedestrian 92-93 MPH fastball, he has shown the ability to miss bats. Sandlin carries a career 27.7% strikeout rate, which he essentially matched over 57 2/3 frames this past season.

The Southern Miss product has middling control. Sandlin walked 11% of batters faced this year, right in line with his 11.4% overall walk percentage. That’ll probably keep him in the middle innings rather than leverage work, but Sandlin’s four-pitch mix has helped him avoid the platoon issues that plague many ’pen arms. The Jays are desperate for any kind of reliability in the bullpen. Only the Rockies had a worse relief group this year. Toronto subsequently moved on from Jordan Romano, Génesis Cabrera and Dillon Tate. They’re in agreement to bring Yimi García back on a two-year free agent deal, but they could use as many as four or five relief acquisitions this winter.

Sandlin has a little less than four years of MLB service. He’s entering his second of four arbitration seasons after qualifying early as a Super Two player. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.6MM salary next year. He should remain affordable over his three years of club control.

The biggest appeal for Cleveland is offloading the expensive portion of Giménez’s contract. Horwitz, 27, provides them with an upper level depth infielder. The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.

Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. The Jays used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.

The lack of defensive flexibility made Horwitz a tough fit on a team with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s similarly squeezed in Cleveland. Josh Naylor would be the first baseman if he’s not traded. Kyle Manzardo could take over even if the Guardians move Naylor. Horwitz still has a minor league option, so he could go back to Triple-A, but he has nothing left to prove there offensively. It’d be a surprise if a Cleveland team that emphasizes infield defense is willing to use him as their regular second baseman. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that Horwitz might end up being flipped to a third team.

In any case, the Guardians will need to find a new second baseman. Juan Brito is on the 40-man roster and hit .256/.365/.443 during his age-22 season in Triple-A. He’s a potential regular, though there’d be risk for Cleveland in relying on a player who has yet to make his MLB debut. The Guards could pursue a stopgap via free agency or trade if they want to add some stability coming off a division title. Over the longer term, the move opens second base for this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. The Oregon State product profiles as a quick-moving second baseman who could get to the majors by the end of next season if all goes well.

Mitchell, a 21-year-old outfielder, rounds out the return. Toronto just drafted the Indiana product in the fourth round. A left-handed batter, Mitchell hit .289/.350/.467 in 22 games as a college draftee in Low-A. Baseball America wrote in its draft report that Mitchell had good contact skills and above-average speed that gave him a shot to stick in center field. He probably projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Jays and Guardians were finalizing a Giménez deal. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN was first with Horwitz’s inclusion. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic had Sandlin going to the Jays, while Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was first to report the full trade and the absence of cash considerations.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nationals Win Draft Lottery

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Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Nationals
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rockies
  5. Cardinals
  6. Pirates
  7. Marlins
  8. Blue Jays
  9. Reds
  10. White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Rangers
  13. Giants
  14. Rays
  15. Red Sox
  16. Twins
  17. Cubs
  18. Diamondbacks
  19. Astros
  20. Braves
  21. Orioles
  22. Brewers
  23. Royals
  24. Tigers
  25. Padres
  26. Phillies
  27. Mets
  28. Guardians
  29. Yankees
  30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.

Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.

Marlins Fielding Interest In Jesus Luzardo

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The Marlins are getting calls on starter Jesús Luzardo, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (X link). Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic write that the Fish are willing to entertain trade talks on the talented southpaw.

On the one hand, a team in a full rebuild like Miami is going to be open to discussing essentially every veteran player. Luzardo is a tough trade candidate, though, as the Marlins are shopping him while his value is at a low point. His ’24 campaign was more or less decimated by injury. Luzardo went on the injured list in the middle of April with elbow inflammation. He returned in May but was shelved again five weeks later by back issues. That not only took him off the table as a deadline trade candidate, it ended his season. Luzardo was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his lower back and couldn’t return to the mound.

Neither injury required surgery and Luzardo was able to begin non-throwing baseball activities by the end of the regular season. There’s no indication he won’t be full go for Spring Training. Still, there’s little doubt that acquiring teams are going to account for the injury risk as they weigh what to offer Miami.

Luzardo has spent a lot of time on the IL over his career. He fractured his throwing hand in 2021 and lost a good portion of the ’22 season to a forearm strain. He also has a Tommy John surgery on his medical chart dating back to high school in 2016. He has only topped 100 1/3 innings in an MLB season once.

That lone healthy campaign offered tantalizing upside. Luzardo took a full 32 turns through the rotation in 2023. He fired 178 2/3 frames of 3.58 ERA ball while punching out 28.1% of opposing hitters. He averaged nearly 97 MPH on his fastball, missed bats with both his slider and changeup, and limited his walks to a solid 7.4% clip.

That version of Luzardo was a #2 or high-end #3 starter, the kind of pitcher a team would happily plug into their playoff rotation. Luzardo didn’t show that form last year even when he was able to take the mound. He allowed five earned runs per nine with a diminished 21.2% strikeout rate in 66 2/3 frames. He still posted plus whiff rates on his secondary pitches, but his average fastball velocity dipped to 95.2 MPH and opponents teed off on it.

There’s obvious appeal for contenders to attempt to buy low. Luzardo is under arbitration control for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $6MM salary. That’s a bargain in comparison to a free agent market where a rebound candidate like Frankie Montas signed for $17MM annually and mid-rotation arms Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino landed more than $20MM per season on three-year deals.

Miami doesn’t have as much urgency to make a sell-low trade. Luzardo won’t make the difference between them contending for a postseason spot or not, but a strong first half could rehabilitate his value. If he demonstrates his 2023 form for three months, Luzardo would arguably be the biggest trade chip of the ’25 deadline. In the best case scenario, Miami could realistically seek multiple Top 100 type prospects next summer. If he struggles or suffers another significant injury, of course, whatever trade value he currently has would basically evaporate.

It’s largely a matter of risk tolerance for president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and his staff. The Fish have very little on the books for next season, so they’re not under any financial pressure to move Luzardo. He’ll be the highest-paid member of their otherwise modest arbitration class. They’re still on the hook for $17MM (including an option buyout) to released outfielder Avisaíl García. The only other player on a guaranteed deal is ace Sandy Alcantara, who’ll make $17MM next year. The Marlins reportedly informed Alcantara in August that they had no intention of trading him this offseason.

Yankees, Mets Among Top Suitors For Garrett Crochet

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One day after the Mets and Yankees finished battling for the top free agent, they’re in the competition for arguably the winter’s #1 trade candidate. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that the New York teams are currently the most aggressive suitors for White Sox’s lefty Garrett Crochet.

The Athletic writes that the Red Sox and Phillies have also expressed interest, but they appear to be behind the New York teams for the moment. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network put the Brewers on Crochet this morning, though The Athletic report does not mention Milwaukee. Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that no team is close to pulling off a deal yet.

Crochet stayed healthy in his first full season as a starter. The Sox pulled back his workload after failing to line up a deadline trade. Chicago never shut him down or skipped his turns through the rotation, but they abbreviated his starts at the end of the year. Crochet finished the season with 146 innings across 32 appearances. He turned in dominant rate stats, striking out 35.1% of batters faced against an excellent 5.5% walk rate. His 3.58 earned run average didn’t quite align with those fantastic peripherals. That’s at least in part because he was pitching in front of one of the game’s worst defensive teams, contributing to an elevated .318 average on balls in play against him.

Going into 2025, Crochet projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm. He shouldn’t have as many concerns about his workload down the stretch. His deadline trade candidacy was also complicated by the late revelation that he was seeking a contract extension if he’d be asked to pitch into the postseason during his first season as a starter. That’s no longer an obstacle.

Chicago GM Chris Getz spoke in generalities about a potential Crochet trade. He repeated the organization’s preference to add young hitting talent but suggested they weren’t opposed to building around pitching if they felt it was the best offer (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Getz reiterated that he didn’t feel compelled to make a trade this offseason, though it’d be a major surprise if Crochet were still in a White Sox uniform by the end of March.

Of the New York teams, the Mets have more talent at the top of the farm system. Their system is headlined by shortstop Jett Williams. Baseball America ranks 19-year-old infielder Jesus Baez as the #3 prospect in the organization. Ronny Mauricio is a former top prospect who might’ve opened the season as New York’s third baseman had he not torn his ACL in winter ball last year. Third baseman Brett Baty has seen his stock dip as he’s underperformed against MLB pitching, but he’s drawing attention as a change of scenery candidate. While Baty no longer has the pull to headline a Crochet package, he could be of interest as a secondary piece. (The Sox built their deadline return for Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech around Miguel Vargas, another post-hype infielder.)

The Yankees’ system is headlined by Jasson Domínguez. There’s a sharp drop thereafter, however. It’d be a surprise if the Yanks were willing to put Domínguez in a Crochet package. The switch-hitter may well be New York’s starting center fielder next year, with Aaron Judge potentially kicking to right field after Juan Soto walked. Outfielder Spencer Jones and infielders George Lombard Jr. and Roderick Arias were once viewed as Top 100 type talents, but they’re all coming off somewhat alarming minor league seasons. Jones and Arias struck out at huge rates, while Lombard didn’t hit for much power in A-ball.

Crochet is controllable for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a bargain $2.9MM salary. Even for the New York franchises, the affordability is appealing. The Yankees could prefer to attack the lineup in free agency rather than make a top-of-the-market splash for starting pitching. The Mets still need a top-of-the-rotation starter. They’ve thus far shied away from making that kind of move in free agency, instead building the rotation with upside plays for Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas.

Rangers Still Pursuing Reunion With Nathan Eovaldi

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The Rangers continue to pursue a reunion with free agent starter Nathan Eovaldi, GM Chris Young confirmed today at the Winter Meetings. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Texas has a meeting scheduled with the right-hander’s representatives on Monday evening.

Eovaldi is one of the better unsigned pitchers in a quick-moving rotation market. Unlike Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, he’ll be limited to a relatively short-term deal. Eovaldi turns 35 in February. That’s an age at which very few free agent pitchers get three years. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, we see that there are only three free agent starters 35 or older who signed for at least three years within the past decade: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Rich Hill.

MLBTR thus predicted two years at a hefty $22MM average annual value for Eovaldi. The rotation market has been quite strong early on, however, so it’s not out of the question that he gets to three years on a deal that pushes past $60MM total. Even if he’s limited to two years, it’ll very likely cost north of $20MM annually.

It’s not clear whether the Rangers would find that price palatable. They’ve scaled back spending in consecutive winters as they navigate an uncertain future with their in-market television deal. Grant reported in October that Texas was hoping to keep their luxury tax number below next year’s $241MM base threshold. RosterResource calculates the Rangers’ CBT number around $195MM. They’ve got a decent amount of flexibility, but something like $22MM annually for Eovaldi would account for nearly half the gap. Texas needs to acquire multiple relievers as well, and teams generally prefer to leave some payroll space for deadline acquisitions. A club’s luxury tax number isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so salary taken on midseason counts towards it on a prorated basis.

Eovaldi unsurprisingly has broad appeal on the market. He has gotten reported interest from the Orioles, Mets, Braves and Red Sox. He still has above-average velocity and is coming off a 3.80 ERA showing with good strikeout and walk numbers. Eovaldi also has a strong reputation for his performance in the postseason, including a 2.95 ERA over six starts during the Rangers’ 2023 World Series run.

White Sox Hire Joel McKeithan As Assistant Hitting Coach

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The White Sox announced their finalized coaching staff on Monday afternoon. The only previously unreported addition was the hiring of Joel McKeithan as assistant hitting coach. The Sox also revealed that former interim manager Grady Sizemore is taking the title of offensive coordinator.

McKeithan, 32, spent two years as Cincinnati’s hitting coach. The Reds found more success in 2023 than they did this past season. Cincinnati battled some injuries to key players (i.e. Matt McLain and TJ Friedl) and navigated a PED suspension for infielder Noelvi Marte. The finished in the bottom third of MLB in overall offense. Incoming manager Terry Francona parted ways with McKeithan and assistant hitting instructors Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte.

He and Sizemore will work on the offensive side along with returning hitting coach Marcus Thames. First-year skipper Will Venable tabbed Walker McKiven as his bench coach a few weeks ago. The Sox are otherwise retaining most of last year’s staff. Pitching coach Ethan Katz, first base coach Jason Bourgeois, third base coach Justin Jirschele, assistant pitching coach Matt Wise and catching coach Drew Butera are all back from last season.

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