Tigers Agree To Deal With First-Round Pick Bryce Rainer
The Tigers are in agreement with first-round draftee Bryce Rainer on a $5.8MM bonus, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (X link). That’s narrowly above the approximate $5.71MM slot value for the 11th overall pick.
A 6’3″ high school shortstop from Southern California, Rainer had been committed to the University of Texas. He was the second prep player off the board — Pittsburgh selected Konnor Griffin at #9 — in a college-heavy first round. Rainer was arguably the top high school talent in the class. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the lefty-hitting infielder as the best high schooler and the #6 draft prospect overall. He ranked ninth or tenth on pre-draft rankings at FanGraphs, Baseball America and on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic.
Evaluators credit Rainer with the potential for plus power and the chance to stick on the left side of the infield. Scouting reports universally praise his excellent arm strength which would play at third base even if he outgrows shortstop. There’s some trepidation about his hit tool — Law notes that Rainer doesn’t have great bat speed and hasn’t handled plus velocity well — but there’s clearly significant upside if Rainer sticks at shortstop and can tap into 20+ homer power annually.
Detroit has five prospects in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update, including three players (Jackson Jobe, Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle) in the top 30. Rainer might not immediately jump into the upper half of that list, but he adds another high-upside talent to the farm system.
Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach
The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.
Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.
The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.
Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.
Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.
Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.
While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.
Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.
Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.
If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.
Jays Notes: Bichette, Garcia, Votto
Bo Bichette exited tonight’s game after six innings. The Blue Jays shortstop came up limping out of the batter’s box after hitting a line drive to right field. Toronto announced that Bichette suffered a right calf injury. Manager John Schneider said postgame that he was headed for an MRI (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com).
A strain in the same calf sent Bichette to the injured list last month. The 26-year-old infielder returned after a minimal stint. Tonight’s evident setback could send him back to the shelf. Even a minimal IL stay would keep him out through the July 30 trade deadline.
With the Jays plummeting out of playoff contention, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been the subject of some trade speculation. GM Ross Atkins shot down the chance of moving either player last month, but the Jays have fallen more definitely from the postseason fringe since then. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported last week that Toronto was still more focused on moving impending free agents. Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM next season and will hit free agency after the ’25 campaign.
This summer would be an inopportune time to deal Bichette even if the Jays listen to offers on more controllable players. This has been by far the most challenging season of his career. He’s hitting .222/.275/.320 over 331 trips to the plate. Bichette has four longballs after reaching the 20-homer threshold in three consecutive seasons. He might now be headed for his second IL stint in as many months.
In more positive injury news, the Jays welcomed Yimi García back from the 15-day injured list before today’s game. The veteran reliever missed a month with ulnar neuritis in his elbow. García is one of six impending free agents on the Toronto roster and has a strong chance to move before the deadline. The right-hander owns a 2.57 ERA through 28 innings. García is running a personal-best 34.6% strikeout rate while generating swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings. He’s playing on a $6MM salary and should be a target for contenders seeking a setup option.
Justin Turner is another of the rentals whom the Jays could look to move this month. Dealing Turner would open the designated hitter spot. That’d theoretically open an opportunity for Joey Votto. Unfortunately, the former MVP’s homecoming with the Jays has been sidetracked by injuries. Votto hurt his right ankle during Spring Training and has spent the season on the Triple-A injured list. He was set to begin his stint for Triple-A Buffalo tonight before tweaking his ankle during pre-game work (relayed on X by Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). He’ll be reevaluated tomorrow.
Notable Draft Signings: 7/19/24
Friday saw a handful of top 10 picks put pen to paper, including #1 overall selection Travis Bazzana. We’ve already covered significant deals for Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Christian Moore and Seaver King this afternoon. A few more notable draft signings of the past 24 hours:
- The Marlins agreed to a $3.4MM deal with first-round pick PJ Morlando, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s well shy of the approximate $4.7MM slot value of the 16th overall selection. While it’s somewhat rare to see a high school player sign for well below slot, the deal allowed Morlando to push into the middle of the first round. FanGraphs, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each ranked the South Carolina commit between 33rd and 52nd in their pre-draft rankings. Evaluators credit the left-handed hitter with advanced contact skills and huge raw power that he shows mostly in batting practice. BA writes that Morlando entered the year as a potential top 10 pick but had a disappointing spring. Law suggests he’s likely to require a mechanical change in pro ball to better integrate his lower body into his swing. Morlando projects to left field or first base, putting a lot of pressure on him to maximize his offensive potential. The $3.4MM bonus falls between the slot values of the 25th and 26th picks, valuing Morlando as a late first-round talent.
- The Braves are in agreement with 24th overall pick Cam Caminiti on a $3.5563MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). It’s full slot value for the Arizona prep left-hander. An LSU commit, Caminiti was the first high school pitcher off the board. Evaluators credit him with mid-90s fastball velocity and an advanced changeup. Law writes that the 6’2″ southpaw developed his curveball into an average or better offering this spring. There’s plenty of risk with the high school pitching demographic, but Caminiti has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
- Supplemental first-round pick Griff O’Ferrall is in agreement with the Orioles on a $2.7MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s just shy of the $2.84MM slot value for the 32nd pick. A shortstop from the University of Virginia, O’Ferrall was a divisive pre-draft prospect. McDaniel and Law each had the right-handed hitter among the 35 best players in the class. He ranked 49th at FanGraphs and 115th on Baseball America’s draft board. O’Ferrall makes a ton of contact, striking out just 24 times in 323 plate appearances (a 7.4% rate) in his draft year. He hit .324/.367/.454 with five homers over 63 contests as a junior. The more optimistic reports suggest O’Ferrall could be a regular at shortstop based on his bat-to-ball skills and an above-average glove. BA suggests his arm strength might push him to second base, where his minimal power upside could be more of a concern.
Marlins, Pirates Have Had “Exploratory” Talks On Jazz Chisholm
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is one of the more interesting position players who is likely to move by the end of the month. The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have all been linked to Miami’s center fielder/second baseman. The Pirates have also been loosely floated as a potential Chisholm fit.
Craig Mish of the Miami Herald and SportsGrid appeared on 93.7 The Fan this afternoon (YouTube link, beginning around 9:27). Mish said that Pittsburgh and Miami have indeed discussed Chisholm, though he characterized those talks as “exploratory” in nature. According to Mish, a few teams other than Pittsburgh have expressed more serious interest to this point. While there’s clearly nothing imminent, Chisholm is on Pittsburgh’s radar to some extent as the Bucs look to add offense.
Chisholm’s defensive flexibility makes him a viable target for a lot of teams. He has primarily played center field going back to the start of the 2023 season. Miami gave him a start at second base last weekend for the first time since 2022. Chisholm was back in center field for tonight’s series opener against the Mets.
The 26-year-old can fit on teams looking for help at either position. The Pirates haven’t gotten much production out of either center field or second base. Pittsburgh center fielders entered play tonight with a dismal .206/.267/.297 slash line that bests only the Cardinals’ offensive output. Michael A. Taylor remains an elite defender but he’s having the worst offensive season of his career, hitting .203/.258/.279 in 73 games.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been a whole lot better at second base. They’ve gotten a .253/.315/.349 performance out of the position. Nick Gonzales got out to an excellent start to the season upon being recalled in May. The former seventh overall pick has slumped to a .240/.269/.349 line in 156 plate appearances since the start of June. Gonzales hit a walk-off single tonight to complete an 8-7 comeback win over the Phillies, but he wasn’t performing well going into the All-Star Break.
Tonight’s victory pushed the Pirates above .500 at 49-48. They’re half a game back of the Mets and Diamondbacks, who are tied for the National League’s last Wild Card spot. Pittsburgh is in position to add at the deadline for the first time in years, although it’s unclear how willing GM Ben Cherington would be to subtract from the top of their farm system. As Darragh McDonald explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers on Wednesday, the Bucs have ample rotation depth. Miami isn’t going to look for immediate starting pitching in a Chisholm deal — Mish suggests the Marlins could target prospects who are two to three years from the big leagues — but the Bucs’ depth could free them to deal a pitching prospect or two for offense. Chisholm is hitting .251/.322/.407 and is under arbitration control through 2026.
Latest On Mason Miller’s Trade Market
There’s no bigger target on the relief market than A’s breakout closer Mason Miller. The All-Star righty begins the second half with a 2.27 earned run average through 39 2/3 innings. He has punched out 70 of 150 opponents (an absurd 46.7% rate) while locking down 15 of 17 save chances. Miller might be the most dominant relief force in the league at the moment.
Oakland general manager David Forst will receive no shortage of trade calls over the next week and a half. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Orioles are among the teams with interest in Miller. Heyman adds that Baltimore also remains connected to old friend Tanner Scott, to whom they’ve been linked for the better part of two months. The O’s are generally expected to land a high-leverage reliever who can either supplant Craig Kimbrel as closer or bridge the gap to the ninth inning.
The Marlins will almost certainly deal Scott, an impending free agent, by July 30. It’d be significantly harder to pry Miller from the A’s. He’s under club control for five seasons after this one. Even a rebuilding team is under no pressure to move him. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote this evening that executives outside of Oakland remain skeptical that the A’s will deal Miller. They’ll have an exorbitant asking price, at the very least.
Miller’s injury history is the main argument for the A’s to move him this summer. The 25-year-old missed most of the 2022 season battling shoulder problems. He lost the bulk of the ’23 campaign to a UCL sprain in his elbow. Miller throws as hard as anyone in baseball and has had a pair of extended arm-related absences within the last three years. There’s clearly some level of risk that he suffers another injury. The A’s are unlikely to be competitive before the 2026 season at the earliest, so Miller could make more of an immediate impact on a team with nearer playoff aspirations.
Yet as appealing as Miller already is as an elite closer, there’s a chance he improves his value even more in the next year or two. Miller was a starting pitcher in the minors and for his first few weeks in the big leagues. Oakland moved him to the bullpen this year as a means of keeping his innings in check. Forst said at the time of the bullpen transfer that the A’s might stretch Miller back out as a starter in 2025. It’d be tempting to keep him in the bullpen now that the team has seen how dominant he is in that role, but no one has ruled out a return to starting. Miller told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last week that he’s not closing off the possibility of moving back to the rotation in ’25 or beyond.
Garrett Crochet has dramatically elevated his trade value with three months of ace production. There’s no guarantee Miller would take to a rotation move the way that Crochet has, of course, but it’s not hard to see the potential for him to be an impact starter. If he ran with a rotation opportunity next season, he’d further elevate his stock both within the organization and on the trade market.
Mariners Designate Mike Baumann For Assignment
The Mariners announced they’ve designated right-hander Mike Baumann for assignment. The move opens a spot in the bullpen for southpaw Gabe Speier, who is back from the 15-day injured list. Baumman is out of options, so Seattle couldn’t send him down without taking him off the 40-man roster.
Seattle acquired Baumann from the Orioles for Triple-A catcher Blake Hunt a couple months ago. The O’s had designated him for assignment despite a decent 3.44 earned run average at the time, projecting his middling strikeout and walk profile to lead to regression. That has been the case in Seattle, as Baumann allowed 11 runs across 16 1/3 innings. He punched out 16 against eight walks while surrendering four home runs. Between the two teams, the former third-round pick now carries a 4.41 ERA over 34 2/3 innings. His 20.8% strikeout percentage, 11% walk rate and 1.56 homers per nine are all on the wrong side of league average.
Baumann was a solid piece of Baltimore’s middle relief corps a year ago. The Jacksonville product worked to a 3.76 ERA with an average 22.3% strikeout percentage while logging 64 2/3 innings. This season hasn’t gone to plan, but he hasn’t lost any velocity off a fastball that sits north of 96 MPH.
Seattle has five days to try to trade Baumann. If they don’t find a taker, they’ll place him on waivers. Any claiming team would need to install him directly into the big league bullpen. Baumann has never cleared outright waivers and has less than three years of MLB service, so he wouldn’t have the ability to decline an outright assignment if he goes unclaimed.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on draft pick trading, whether the Royals could deal from their MLB team for help in other areas, the asking price on Garrett Crochet, Ivan Herrera's value, the Yankees' closing situation, the A's middle infield, where the first Juan Soto trade ranks among the biggest in MLB history, and much more.
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Andrew Friedman Discusses Dodgers’ Deadline
While most of the National League is still on the border of the playoff picture, the Dodgers have no such ambiguity. They’re in their typical position of preparing to buy.
On paper, the team’s biggest question appears to be the roster depth. The Dodgers haven’t gotten much production out of the bottom third of the lineup. They have seven starting pitchers on the injured list at the moment, leading them to go into the All-Star Break with a four-man rotation that includes three rookies. They felt the effects in the weeks leading up to the Break. They’ve taken just four of 12 games this month and have a 20-18 record since the beginning of June.
Despite their recent slump, the Dodgers have one of the more comfortable divisional cushions in the majors. They’re seven games clear of the Diamondbacks and Padres in the NL West. They remain very likely to win the division. Whether they’ll finish in the National League’s top two and secure a first-round bye is more of a question. L.A. is well back of the Phillies for the #1 seed and only holds a one-game edge on the Central-leading Brewers.
The division lead allows the front office to be flexible in which players they target before July 30. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman indicated this week that the Dodgers will focus most of their attention at the top of the trade market. “For us, I don’t think our mentality is different than it’s been in previous years in that we feel we have a really good team and to the extent that we can add really good players we’re going to be aggressive to do so,” Friedman said (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). “What appears to be a marginal upgrade is not something we’re going to spend a lot of time on. That doesn’t mean something is not going to happen along those lines but that’s not where our energy and focus will be.”
With very little danger of missing the playoffs, the Dodgers can primarily concern themselves with how the roster will look in October. They anticipate having a lot of impact players back by then. Los Angeles isn’t expecting a long-term absence for Tyler Glasnow. Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be back in August. Clayton Kershaw is building up in the minors as he completes his rehab from last year’s shoulder surgery.
Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller once looked like obvious pieces of the October staff. That’s questionable now. Buehler was rocked over eight starts in his return from a second Tommy John procedure. He has been on the injured list for a month with a hip issue. Miller lost a couple months to a shoulder problem and didn’t look like himself upon returning. The Dodgers optioned him to Triple-A late last week. Dustin May won’t be able to contribute down the stretch after unexpectedly requiring throat surgery in a scary situation.
Glasnow, Yamamoto, Kershaw and Gavin Stone could still comprise a solid playoff rotation. There’s downside with that entire group, though. Yamamoto is rehabbing a rotator cuff strain. Glasnow should easily eclipse his previous career high in innings. Kershaw is a 36-year-old coming off shoulder surgery. This is the first time Stone is getting extended run out of the rotation.
There’s not a ton of value for the Dodgers in acquiring a back-end arm to take a handful of starts in August and September. Like every team, Los Angeles would benefit from adding another high-end starter whom the team would feel comfortable taking the ball in October.
The Dodgers reportedly already made an offer to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet that was turned down. They’ll presumably have continued interest in the AL strikeout leader, who’d certainly qualify as the kind of impact talent to which Friedman alluded. Teams will have questions about how well Crochet will hold up given his innings count, but he’s pitching like an ace at the moment. Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi look like the top rental starters who’ll be on the market.
Plunkett writes that Friedman downplayed the urgency to add at specific positions on the other side of the ball. The Dodgers haven’t gotten much out of Gavin Lux at second base. They’ve had limited production in both left and center field. Third base has been an issue since Muncy went down. Andy Pages has stabilized the corner outfield spot opposite Teoscar Hernández, but the Dodgers are relying on James Outman in center field after he struggled early in the season.
Getting Betts back in the fold would go a long way toward addressing those problems. He could slide to second base with Miguel Rojas handling shortstop, pushing Lux to the bench. Betts could obviously handle the outfield if need be. As with the rotation, it’s easy enough to argue for an upgrade, but it’s also not clear how many significant players are on the market. The middle infield group looks very thin. Luis Robert Jr. is the crown of the center field class. The White Sox would need a massive haul to deal him thanks to his three years of remaining club control.
Royals Place Nick Anderson On Release Waivers
The Royals released veteran reliever Nick Anderson, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that the right-hander is currently on release waivers. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll hit free agency in the coming days.
Kansas City pushed Anderson out of their bullpen last weekend when they acquired Hunter Harvey. With more than five years of major league service, Anderson had the ability to decline any minor league assignments while retaining his $1.575MM salary. That led the Royals to release him after the DFA.
The Royals took a flier on Anderson in a cash trade with the Braves last offseason. Atlanta evidently wasn’t planning to keep him via arbitration, but K.C. swung a deal to bring him in just before the non-tender deadline. Anderson made 37 appearances and tossed 35 2/3 innings, his heaviest MLB workload since his dominant 2019 rookie year. The 34-year-old posted a reasonable 4.04 earned run average, but his peripherals weren’t great.
Anderson got swinging strikes on a modest 9.8% of his offerings. That resulted in a subpar 19% strikeout rate. His 9.8% walk percentage was a bit higher than average. It’s not great aggregate production, although Anderson’s strikeout and walk numbers had started to come around in recent weeks. He had nearly as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13) through the end of May. Since the calendar flipped to June, Anderson punched out 16 hitters while only issuing a trio of free passes in 15 appearances. That coincided with a home run spike, however, and the front office decided to push him out of a scuffling relief group.
Once an elite late-game weapon for the Rays, Anderson missed most of the 2021-22 seasons to elbow injuries. Tampa Bay cut him loose after the ’22 campaign. Anderson hasn’t been the same force he was back in 2019, but he was an above-average reliever for the Braves as recently as last season. He turned in a 3.04 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opponents across 35 appearances. A shoulder strain ended his year around the All-Star Break.
If Anderson clears waivers, any team could sign him for the prorated portion of the $740K minimum. Kansas City would be on the hook for the rest of his salary. It’s not out of the question he secures a major league contract and jumps right into another team’s MLB bullpen. If he does find an MLB job, Anderson would remain under arbitration control through 2025.