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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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Jack Zduriencik’s search for offense continues this offseason, as the Mariners prepare to move the fences in at Safeco Field.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players

Contract Options

Free Agents

It’s becoming an alarming trend. The Mariners finished the 2012 season having scored fewer runs than any American League team for the third consecutive season. This team needs more offense to approach and surpass the .500 mark. 

Felix Hernandez - Mariners (PW)

If the Mariners offense was a single player, he'd be among the worst qualified players in MLB with a .234/.296/.369 batting line. It’s not encouraging that the franchise hasn’t had a player hit more than 20 homers since 2009 (Russell Branyan and Jose Lopez). Pitcher-friendly Safeco Field evidently affects the team’s offensive numbers, so the Mariners decided to move the fences in for the 2013 season. The upcoming changes should make Seattle a more inviting place, especially for right-handed power hitters.

The Mariners enjoyed some breakout performances from position players in 2012. Kyle Seager put together a solid season, establishing himself as the team's everyday third baseman. John Jaso cemented his status as a first-rate righty masher, posting a .276/.394/.456 batting line. And Michael Saunders showed promise, hitting 19 home runs as the team's primary center fielder. 

Zduriencik should have some payroll flexibility this offseason. The team has committed $40.5MM to next year’s roster, not including arbitration eligible players, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. For a team that can be expected to spend $80MM-plus on payroll, this should lead to some maneuverability.

There’s room for improvement at a number of positions. Non-tender candidate Brendan Ryan didn't add anything on offense, but that's nothing new. He's a sensational defender at shortstop, so the Mariners will have to weigh the value of his glove against their need for offense and the shortage of viable alternatives at the position.

Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero don’t have Ryan’s defensive skills, but they’ll presumably continue to get opportunities in 2013. If Smoak hadn't hit so well from September on — he hit five homers and posted an OPS over 1.000 — his roster spot might be in question. For the time being, a strong finish has helped overshadow another disappointing offensive season from the switch-hitting 25-year-old.

The Mariners could improve their offense substantially by upgrading at designated hitter or in the outfield. Seattle's designated hitters posted a .214/.287/.310 batting line in 2012, production that ranked last in the American League, far below that of the 13th-place Rays. Montero, who occupied the DH spot for about half of Seattle's games this past season, figures to get more opportunities in 2013, so spending on a free agent designated hitter such as David Ortiz doesn't make sense this winter.

Some Mariners fans will dream on the offseason’s top free agent, Josh Hamilton. Though Hamilton would undoubtedly address the team’s most glaring need, it’s unclear whether he’d select Seattle when he’ll have opportunities with teams closer to contention in more hitter-friendly places. Hamilton also bats from the left side, so he wouldn't necessarily benefit from the ballpark modifications as much as others.

While luring free agent hitters to Seattle may not be easy, there’s a way around the issue for Zduriencik. He can trade for impact players. The Diamondbacks will presumably continue to listen to offers for Justin Upton, who didn’t have Seattle on his no-trade list last summer. Upton capped off a disappointing season with a strong month of September, an indication that he's returning to form. There’s upside here, but only if the Mariners are confident the 25-year-old can weather the transition from one of baseball’s best hitters parks to one of its worst. The Diamondbacks, who are now seeking help on the left side of the infield, might ask Seattle about Seager's availability if talks pick up.

Shin-Soo Choo, another player with ties to the Mariners, also figures to be available in trades (Choo signed with the Mariners in 2000 and was traded away years before Zduriencik joined the organization). He's just one year away from free agency yet he'd be a worthwhile target if the Indians' asking price seems reasonable.

The Felix Hernandez rumors never stop, do they? Zduriencik has maintained that the Mariners ace is staying put, so there’s no reason to expect a trade this offseason. An extension for Hernandez might be in order, as he’s just two years away from free agency.

Among American League teams, only the Rays and Athletics allowed fewer runs than the Mariners in 2012. Most of Seattle's best pitchers are set to return in 2013, when they figure to have a strong pitching staff once again. Plus, top pitching prospects Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker could be ready to contribute within the next year. 

The new dimensions will affect Seattle's pitchers, and fly ball-prone starters such as Jason Vargas and Blake Beavan could see their numbers decline. Given this possibility, it'd make sense for Seattle to consider trading Vargas. The return wouldn't necessarily be overwhelming for a pitcher whose salary could surpass $7MM via the arbitration process, but there would be a market for the reliable left-hander.

A year ago the Mariners added pitchers such as Hisashi Iwakuma, Kevin Millwood and Oliver Perez on low-risk deals to supplement an already strong pitching staff. A similar approach should work again in 2012-13: add a back-end starter or two and sign a number of relievers in the hopes that a couple of the additions become key contributors. Convincing pitchers to sign in Seattle should be doable despite the new dimensions at Safeco Field. There's no need to devote lots of resources toward a shutdown late inning reliever — Tom Wilhelmsen has that job covered — or a lefty specialist — Charlie Furbush has excelled this year — but it never hurts to be proactive about acquiring relief pitchers given the often unpredictable nature of their performances.

Miguel Olivo's contract includes a $3MM club option for 2013. The 34-year-old provides power against left-handed pitching, but he's a platoon bat with limited defensive value. The team has reason to decline this option and find a backup more affordably. Another veteran player, Chone Figgins, may also be done with the Mariners. The 34-year-old utility player wants out of Seattle and it won't be surprising if the Mariners cut ties with him.

Vargas leads an arbitration class that could diminish in size by the time hearings take place in the new year. Ryan could be non-tendered, and Saunders could miss the super two cutoff. Otherwise the Mariners face a relatively straightforward class without any obvious extension candidates.

The Mariners have improved their record in both of the past two seasons. For the trend to continue, Zduriencik will have to keep supplementing the team's pitching staff and, most importantly, acquire at least one hitter with the goal of having a respectable lineup next season.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Padres Could Extend Chase Headley

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The Padres' new ownership group has publicly stated its intention to retain quality players who want to stay in San Diego. Chase Headley has emerged as the kind of star player the Padres might look to sign long-term following a breakout season in which he hit 31 home runs. According to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the ownership group led by Ron Fowler and the Seidler/O’Malley families seems to want to sign Headley long term.

However, some Padres executives believe now is the time to trade Headley, Center reports. GM Josh Byrnes could name his price for Headley, and replace him with Jedd Gyorko. It doesn't seem likely that the Padres will trade Headley, who's arbitration eligible for the third time this coming offseason. The 28-year-old earned $3.5MM in 2012 and could earn more than $7MM in 2013. Headley, who’s under team control through 2014, surfaced in numerous trade rumors leading up to this past season’s non-waiver trade deadline.

AL East Notes: MacPhail, Cano, Rays, Blue Jays

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Bobby Valentine has officially been dismissed, which means the Red Sox will embark on their second managerial search in as many years. GM Ben Cherington has said he hopes to conclude the search earlier this time. Here are some notes on Boston’s division rivals…

  • Former Orioles president Andy MacPhail told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that he's happy for the team’s fans, players and executives. He acknowledged that it "would have been a lot of fun" to be present for Baltimore's playoff run, but said he doesn't regret stepping down to spend time with his family. MacPhail said he's starting to think about working in baseball again and noted that, at 59 years old, he's "way too young" to do nothing. "I think there are a variety of things that would interest me," he told Connolly.
  • MacPhail noted that Dan Duquette has done an excellent job of finding starting pitching depth this year.
  • Executives suggest an extension for Robinson Cano could cost the Yankees $200MM, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes. The second baseman says he hasn’t “thought about anything," but the Yankees can’t allow him to hit free agency in Passan’s view. New York will exercise its $15MM option for Cano after the season, delaying his free agency until the end of the 2013 season.
  • Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman said he's "not going to be flippant" about Tampa Bay's impressive pitching depth this coming offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Friedman also said he expects to talk with Larry Reynolds, the agent for B.J. Upton, even though the sides aren't expected to agree to a new contract.
  • Mike Axisa rounded up the latest Red Sox-related rumors earlier today. Here's one more note from Boston: the Blue Jays would want “a decent player” in a deal for manager John Farrell, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports.

Frasor Flexible On Cusp Of Free Agency

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For some players free agency means long-term contract offers and lavish visits to the cities of interested teams. Jason Frasor is not one of those players, and he knows it. The 35-year-old right-hander remains flexible as his upcoming appearance on the free agent market approaches, and he insists he’ll play ‘for anybody.’

“I’m not too picky,” he told MLBTR this weekend. “They’re all big league cities and I’ve been to each one. The thing is there are so many middle relievers. It’s flooded with guys who do the same job as I do, so you’re really fighting for spots. There are only so many spots to go around.”

Jason Frasor - Blue Jays (PW)

Frasor will hit free agency after the World Series ends and, assuming the Blue Jays don't make him a qualifying offer, he won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. He was linked to compensation as a Type A free agent the last time he hit free agency, following the 2010 season. Instead of hitting the market as a Type A player, he accepted Toronto's offer of arbitration before signing his current contract. It’s a process he won’t miss.

“Looking back, it wasn’t that fun,” Frasor said, reflecting on the now-defunct Type A and Type B designations. “It wasn’t that great. A few teams called, but I had strings attached … I’m glad that’s gone. Now if they want you they can sign you. They don’t have to give up a first round pick for a middle reliever. That doesn’t make any sense.”

Frasor’s generally strong 2012 season ended with consecutive outings in which he allowed two earned runs without completing an inning. The Blue Jays’ all-time leader in career pitching appearances finished the year with a 4.12 ERA, 10.9 K.9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 38.4% ground ball rate in 50 appearances. His average fastball velocity remained 93 mph and his swinging strike rate stayed relatively constant at 9.0%. Those numbers will be enough to generate modest contract offers at a time that many teams are seeking relief help.

The nine-year veteran will weigh contract value and location when deciding where to sign this offseason. He prefers the East Coast, feels more comfortable in the American League and would ideally prefer to join a winning team.

“But again, that’s not going to stop me from signing with a West Coast team,” he added. “We’ll see.”

Frasor realizes middle relievers often wait until the new year before finding jobs, and he would like to avoid that fate if possible. His preference would be to sign relatively soon instead of drawing out the free agent process. Beyond that his next move is anybody’s guess.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Curtis Granderson Previews MLBPA Offseason

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Curtis Granderson capped off the 2012 season with a two-home run effort at Yankee Stadium yesterday, as New York beat Boston 14-2 and clinched the American League East title. His season isn’t over yet — the Yankees will play in the Division Series starting this weekend — but for most of his peers in the MLB Players Association it’s time to look ahead ahead to the offseason. Granderson, a prominent member of MLBPA's Executive Board, expects this winter to unfold more quietly than last it did a year ago, when the players and owners negotiated a new collective bargaining agreement.

Curtis Granderson - Yankees (PW)

“All the main things that needed to be discussed happened last year,” Granderson told MLBTR this past weekend. “There won’t be any big, major holdups — just a few things to try to iron out that could start this year that may not finish up for the next couple of years. It’ll just be a lot of discussion.”

The talks will have a different tone this offseason. Though baseball’s players and owners negotiated their current CBA without any of the public bickering that has accompanied recent labor discussions in the NFL, NBA and NHL, tense moments are bound to occur while determining the financial structure of a $7 billion industry. Now that major issues such as the luxury tax, the amateur draft and revenue sharing have been resolved through 2016, the MLBPA can focus on other details.

“Obviously there are always issues each year that arise and different things from new helmet regulations, pace of game, different things with performance enhancing drug issues that we’ve had this year, scheduling with another team going to the American League, Interleague Play starting in the first week of the season,” Granderson said. “So just little things like that, but nothing major.”

Granderson, one of two association representatives for the MLBPA (Jeremy Guthrie of the Royals is the other), will keep in contact with his fellow players via phone calls and text messages over the course of the coming offseason. When a major issue emerges, the MLBPA attempts to reach as many players as possible.

“We have ways of getting in touch with everybody,” Granderson said. “Pretty quickly now, especially with everybody having a cell phone no matter where they happen to be in the world.”

When he’s not communicating with other MLB players, Granderson stays informed on labor unrest in other sports. Former MLBPA Executive Director Don Fehr represents NHL players in the current lockout, and Granderson, who worked a bit with Fehr in the past, has monitored talks with an outsider’s perspective.

“I’m still a fan,” he said. “I like watching those games and whenever they get the chance to go back out there, hopefully everybody’s taken care of.”

For now baseball players don't have major labor concerns of their own, which means fewer distractions for Granderson as the Yankees prepare for another postseason run.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Figgins Wants Out Of Seattle

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Three quarters of the way through a disappointing four-year contract, Chone Figgins wants out of Seattle. The 34-year-old utility player told John Hickey of SportsPressNW.com that he’d prefer not to play for the Mariners any longer (Twitter link).

"I can't take two more years of this," Figgins said.

Figgins' four-year, $36MM contract includes an $8MM salary in 2013 and a $9MM vesting option for 2014. He appeared in 66 games this year, posting a .181/.262/.271 batting line in 194 plate appearances. Figgins played third base and all three outfield positions, but appeared in Just four games from September on.

Marlins Seeking Replacement For Guillen

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It appears that the Marlins’ disappointing season will cost Ozzie Guillen his job. The Marlins are aggressively seeking a replacement for Guillen, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (on Twitter). It’s not clear if Miami executives will fire Guillen before finding a replacement.

The Marlins acquired Guillen from the White Sox toward the end of the 2011 season, but the team fell short of expectations, finishing last in the NL East with a 69-93 record. Guillen has three years remaining on the four-year, $10MM contract he signed with the Marlins a year ago. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported last month that the Marlins would likely hire a low-priced alternative if they dismiss Guillen. Owner Jeffrey Loria will make the final call.

The Marlins talked extensively about Bo Porter before the Astros named the longtime coach their manager. Mike Lowell's name has come up in connection with the Marlins, but he won't be considered, according to the Miami Herald.

White Sox Notes: Pierzynski, Peavy, Youkilis

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The White Sox will soon promote their top two baseball executives, Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com confirmed today. Williams will become the team’s president and Hahn will be the general manager and the team’s primary baseball decision maker, as expected. Here’s the latest on three of the organization’s free agents…

  • Catcher A.J. Pierzynski loves playing for the White Sox and is close with owner Jerry Reinsdorf. A two-year, $16MM contract could work for both sides, Heyman suggests.
  • The White Sox will decline Jake Peavy’s $22MM option, but they hope to agree to terms on a new deal to keep the right-hander in Chicago, Heyman reports. Though there will be lots of competition for Peavy, Heyman guesses the White Sox will be able to re-sign him as long as they make a competitive offer.
  • The White Sox plan to decline Kevin Youkilis’ $13MM option for 2013, Heyman reports. However, they loved having the third baseman on the roster this year, so Heyman suggests they’ll try to work out a two-year contract, perhaps in the $15MM range.

Red Sox Intend To Dismiss Bobby Valentine

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As expected, Red Sox upper management intends to dismiss Bobby Valentine once the season ends, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. The firing is expected to take place soon after the regular season ends and could occur Thursday or Friday. GM Ben Cherington declined to comment on the matter, Heyman reports.

It's been widely expected that the Red Sox will dismiss Valentine following the regular season. Blue Jays manager John Farrell appears to be a top target of Boston's front office executives. The Red Sox enter the final game of the season with a 69-92 record, having lost 90 games for the first time since 1966. 

Valentine told reporters today that he "had every opportunity to succeed and didn't," according to Jack Curry of the YES Network (Twitter links). The manager also said he regrets commenting about Kevin Youkilis' engagement level early in the season.

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