2025 is going to be a lost season for the Orioles. They fell back in the standings early and eventually sold off multiple players ahead of the trade deadline. For the remainder of the season, the focus is on giving time to players who could help in the future. Despite that, notable prospects like Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers haven’t been called up to get their feet wet in the big leagues. In an interview with Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner, general manager Mike Elias didn’t deny that the calendar might be a consideration.

“I think we have to be aware of the rules and, in general, systems that are in place that benefit players and benefit organizations,” Elias said. “You just kind of hope that that stuff synchronizes well with whatever the baseball need or player development need is.”

That answer was in response to a question about whether Basallo and Beavers might be called up later in the season, once the club can keep them as rookies heading into 2026. That’s significant due to the prospect promotion incentives. Under the PPI rules, a player can earn his club an extra draft pick under certain conditions. The player has to be on two of three top 100 prospect lists between Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. If such a player is called up early enough in a season to earn a full year of service time, then goes on to win Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration, the club gets an extra draft pick just after the first round.

The PPI rules were put in place to combat service time manipulation. Previously, it was common for players to be kept in the minors early in a season even if they were clearly ready for the big leagues. If a player wasn’t called up until late April, the player’s path to free agency would be delayed by a year, a clear benefit for the team.

Now, however, it seems that late August in the new late April. It has now become common for clubs to promote these players late enough in a season to get some experience but keep rookie status going into the following campaign. A player exhausts rookie eligibility by spending 45 days in the big leagues or logging 50 major league innings or 130 at-bats. A team can therefore promote a player in the second half of August, keep the innings or at-bats below the relevant threshold and keep the potential of earning a future draft pick on the table.

The O’s have gone down this road before. They promoted Gunnar Henderson in late August of 2022, the first year of the PPI rules. He got into 34 games and stepped to the plate 116 times, keeping his rookie status for 2023. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, netting the O’s an extra draft pick in 2024, which they used to take Griff O’Ferrall 32nd overall. The Diamondbacks did essentially the same thing with Corbin Carroll.

Players like Shea Langeliers, Brett Baty, Cade Cavalli, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Ken Waldichuk, Spencer Steer, Oswald Peraza, Triston Casas, Josh Jung, Ezequiel Tovar, Logan O’Hoppe, Francisco Alvarez and Bo Naylor were also promoted in late August, September or October of that year. In 2023, players like Masyn Winn, Nolan Schanuel, Noelvi Marté, Parker Meadows, Everson Pereira, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Wicks, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jasson Domínguez, Austin Wells, Ronny Mauricio, Connor Phillips, Jordan Lawlar, Evan Carter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Heston Kjerstad and Junior Caminero got calls in the final 45 days of the season. In 2024, the list included Jace Jung, Dylan Crews, Rhett Lowder, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe and Kevin Alcántara.

That’s not to say that all of those players were intentionally held down due to the PPI rules, but it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence that late-season promotions are now the norm. If a team is considering a promotion for a player in the summer, they have an incentive to wait. That waiting could potentially hurt the team, though the club may not care in some cases. Many clubs are often out of contention by this part of the schedule, as the Orioles are now.

It’s unfortunate for the players, who could otherwise get up earlier and get a bit more time in the big leagues. But if there’s a line somewhere, teams are going to find ways to be on the beneficial side of it, as Elias essentially admitted.

Waiting until late April or May is still a possibility but teams can be burned that way. The flip side of the PPI rules is that a player can earn a full service year even if not promoted early enough. The Pirates promoted Paul Skenes in May of last year but he won Rookie of the Year anyway, earning himself a full service year. The O’s also experienced this when Adley Rutschman finished second in 2022 Rookie of the Year voting, though his promotion was delayed by a spring training injury. Being held down for a few extra weeks in the summer isn’t ideal, but the players surely prefer this to the pre-PPI setup.

The comments from Elias line up with the aforementioned patterns of prospect promotions. We are sure to see a large number of prospects called up in late August and in September. It seems likely that Basallo and Beavers will be two of them.

Basallo, 20, is already one of the top prospects in baseball. Baseball America has him at #7 and MLB Pipeline at #8. ESPN did a top 50 update in May with Basallo in the #13 spot. He has 23 home runs in just 73 Triple-A games this year, leading to a .279/.384/.612 line. There are still some questions about whether he can stick at catcher or if he’s destined for a move to first base, though he’s still quite young and could make further improvements with his defense. Assuming the O’s make a point of not exhausting his rookie status, he’ll be a lock to be PPI eligible in 2026.

Beavers, 24, is more of a borderline case. BA currently has him in the #83 spot but he’s not on MLB Pipeline’s list. He is slashing .305/.422/.526 in Triple-A this year with 18 home runs, a 16.5% walk rate and 22 stolen bases. His PPI eligibility will depend upon how those top 100 lists are shuffled between now and Opening Day.

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images