Trade Candidates: Padres Starters
While some other youthful National League clubs have shown big strides thus far in 2018, the Padres remain buried in the NL West and don’t seem to be going anywhere this season. The rotation’s performance, to be sure, has not helped matters. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be a source of some summer trade assets.
Late last year, the Friars reached a two-year, $6MM extension with Clayton Richard. In December, they added Jordan Lyles for a meager $1MM guarantee in a deal that also includes an option for 2019. And when the calendar flipped to 2018, they brought back old friend Tyson Ross on an incentive-laden, minor-league pact.
In the aggregate, the strategy wasn’t all that different from the one the Pads used in the prior winter, when Richard joined Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, and Jered Weaver as low-cost free agents that landed in San Diego. In both cases, the idea was to buy up some cheap innings while potentially opening the door to a mid-season trade return.
To this point, despite the generally poor performance of the San Diego starting staff, the trio of veteran assets has been rather cost-effective. Indeed, all three are worthy of tracking for organizations weighing deadline additions. The fact that none will break the bank is of particular note, especially in a world in which several contenders will be looking to improve while staying beneath the luxury tax line.
Let’s take a closer look …
At first glance, Richard does not appear to be doing much of interest. He’s carrying a 4.87 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 61 frames thus far. His typically superlative groundball rate is down, albeit to a still-excellent 54.4% rate. And he only managed a 4.79 earned-per-nine rate as a starter in 2017.
True, it’s probably not worth getting too terribly excited over the 34-year-old southpaw. But there’s much more to the story. Richard is sporting a career-best 10.2% swinging-strike rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics such as FIP (3.78), xFIP (3.48), and SIERA (3.90) all feel he has outperformed his results thus far in 2018 — and likewise that he did so last season. Though he has been tagged when facing an opposing order for a third time, he has been much more useful in the prior two times through a lineup.
Taken together, it’s not hard to imagine the right organization viewing Richard as quite a useful asset. He’s averaging six frames per start and thus could fill out a rotation or serve as a long man down the stretch. And he has been particularly stingy against opposing lefties, who are hitting just .226/.298/.308 against him, so there’s also some postseason swingman/lefty specialist potential here. That’s an interesting combination.
Certainly, scouts will be watching to see how Richard throws as the deadline approaches. The same is true to an even greater extent with regard to Lyles, a 27-year-old who’s off to his most promising showing in some time. Over 37 2/3 innings through 16 appearances — three of them starts — he has compiled a 3.11 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.
To be sure, there’s a lot left for Lyles to prove. He has enjoyed a stingy .233 BABIP-against, though Statcast figures indicate he hasn’t needed much luck in the batted-ball department (.260 wOBA against a .286 xwOBA). Clearly, opponents’ success on balls in play will go up, but the lack of good contact suggests that there’s more than just sample fortune at play. Notably, too, Lyles has thus far managed a career-best swinging strike rate (10.9%) and average four-seam velocity (95.2 mph).
It’s worth bearing in mind that both Richard and Lyles come with affordable future control. While the Padres may yet have designs on making a leap in the standings in 2019, and might look to bolster their rotation further, it’ll be hard to add too many pieces in one winter (even from within). The club will surely value the right to control such useful arms at minimal rates of pay, meaning neither will be available unless the return is at least of some interest.
That’s not quite the same situation for the 31-year-old Ross, who has been the Padres’ best starter thus far. He’s only under contract for the present season, so barring a Richard-like extension, he’ll be a free agent at year end.
Since reuniting with the Friars after a miserable season apart, Ross has looked something like his old self. Over 53 2/3 innings, he’s sporting a healthy 3.35 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and a 46.2% groundball rate. He still doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, but has regained some (but not all) of his ability to generate swings and misses (9.9% this year).
If the deadline was closer, Ross would probably be the pitcher of the three generating the most attention. But we still have some time for things to shake out. The Statcast data does indicate that Ross has been a bit fortunate to allow only a .273 wOBA to opposing hitters, as the quality of contact would suggest a more robust .324 xwOBA rate of output. He has thus far suppressed home runs quite well, as he did traditionally, but any slippage in that area could also reverse the ERA fairly quickly.
Taken together, the Padres hardly have a slate of major trade assets in their starting five. But this trio could all draw interest over the summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor MLB Transactions: 5/22/18
Here are the day’s minor moves…
Latest Transactions
- The Nationals signed outfielder Jaff Decker to a minors contract, the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reports (via Twitter). The 30-year-old has appeared in each of the last five MLB seasons, posting a .510 OPS over 191 career plate appearances with the Padres, Pirates, Rays, and A’s. Decker signed a minor league deal with Atlanta over the winter but was released earlier this month.
- The Mets signed veteran lefty Aaron Laffey to a minor league deal, purchasing his contract from the independent Atlantic League. The Somerset Patriots, Laffey’s Atlantic League team, reported the news on Twitter. The 33-year-old worked as both a starter and reliever for six teams (including a brief stint with the Mets in 2013) over parts of eight MLB seasons, though Laffey has only 7 1/3 innings in the Show since the end of the 2013 season and none since 2015. He has bounced around the minors, including a previous stint with Somerset last season that ended when he signed a minors deal with the D’Backs.
Earlier Today
- The Reds selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Brandon Dixon from Triple-A, optioning Rosell Herrera to Triple-A in a corresponding move. Dixon, a third-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2013 draft, was one of the three youngsters (along with Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler) dealt to Cincinnati as part of the three-team trade that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. Neither Baseball America or MLB.com ranked Dixon among the Reds’ top 30 prospects, though he put himself on the map this season thanks to an impressive .326/.371/.527 slash line over 140 PA at Triple-A Louisville. While he has spent much of his pro career as a second and third baseman, Dixon has made multiple starts as a first baseman and corner outfielder this season, giving him added versatility on the Reds’ roster.
- The Tigers announced the purchase of left-hander Kevin Chapman‘s contract from the independent Atlantic League’s New Britain Bees. Chapman has been assigned to Triple-A. The southpaw posted a 4.09 ERA over 55 relief innings for the Astros in 2013-16, and spent last season in the Braves’ and Twins’ farm systems. The Tigers are short on left-handed relievers both in the majors and upper minors, so there seems to be an opportunity for Chapman to earn a spot back to the big leagues.
- The Nationals announced that outfielder Moises Sierra has cleared waivers and been optioned back to Triple-A. Sierra was designated for assignment earlier this week to clear roster space for the promotion of top prospect Juan Soto. Appearing in his first MLB action since 2014, Sierra hit .167/.217/.404 over 60 PA for Washington this season.
- Southpaw Jairo Labourt has been released by the Tigers, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com covers on Twitter. Despite being a popular waiver wire target over the offseason, the 24-year-old lefty has not been in good enough form even to join an affiliate to this point. The Tigers originally acquired him in the 2015 David Price swap.
- The Pirates have released right-hander Tyler Jones, according to John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com. Jones, 28, has had some promising seasons in the upper minors, but hasn’t shown as well in the last two campaigns. Homers have been an issue for Jones thus far, as he has been tagged for a 5.40 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 over 16 2/3 innings with the Bucs’ top affiliate.
- Rangers righty David Ledbetter has decided to retire, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter). Per the report, the 26-year-old decided to hang things up as a “family decision.” A third-round pick in 2013, Ledbetter has never quite found his form in the minors. In 115 1/3 Triple-A innings, he owns a 4.99 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.
Mariners Place Dee Gordon On 10-Day DL With Fractured Toe
7:17PM: Manager Scott Servais doesn’t believe Gordon will be out of action for too long, he told the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other media. “With his feet being such a big part of his game, we thought it was the best thing to do to let it calm down. It’s not going to completely heal in nine or 10 days, but certainly calm down enough to hopefully we can get him back sooner than later,” Servais said.
12:51PM: The Mariners announced today that outfielder/infielder Dee Gordon has been placed on the 10-day DL with a fractured big toe. He’ll be replaced on the active roster for the time being by first baseman Dan Vogelbach.
Just how long Gordon will be out is not yet known. The club says that he suffered the injury on May 9th and then reinjured it on Sunday.
This is the latest bit of unwelcome news for a Seattle organization that had just been forced into some juggling to account for an injury to and subsequent suspension of Robinson Cano. The loss of Cano had pushed the team to move Gordon back to second base.
Without Cano and Gordon, it seems the Mariners will need to roll with a combination of Gordon Beckham and Andrew Romine at second. That’s not exactly a compelling duo, though they will need to hold down the fort for a while. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently looked at the possible options outside the organization at the second-base position, but any significant trades likely won’t come together in the near future.
Mets Close To A Deal With Jose Bautista
4:34PM: A deal between Bautista and the Mets is “close,” according to SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).
TODAY, 3:59PM: The two sides are still working towards a contract, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link), and it seems if “they should have an answer one way or another as soon as today.” There could also be more than one team interested in Bautista’s services.
YESTERDAY: The Mets are “showing interest” in veteran slugger Jose Bautista, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The 37-year-old is back on the open market after being released by the Braves over the weekend.
It is not clear at this point how the Mets would envision utilizing Bautista, if a deal comes together. The veteran had lined up at third base for Atlanta, though there won’t be an opening at the hot corner in New York once Todd Frazier returns from the DL. Bautista would potentially represent a right-handed-hitting corner outfield option while Yoenis Cespedes is on the shelf.
Of course, it could also simply be that the Mets see Bautista as a possible upper-level depth piece. Whether he’d be willing to sign without at least a plan in place to return to the majors, though, is not immediately clear.
Clearly, things did not turn out as hoped for Bautista with the Braves. He had managed only a .143/.250/.343 slash over forty plate appearances in a dozen games. Though he was drawing walks in over 12% of his plate appearances, Bautista had gone down on strikes in three of every ten trips to the dish — far above his typical levels in that regard.
All that being said, it’s clearly too small a sample for the numbers to say anything definitive, and the Mets’ front office may believe there’s still some cause for optimism for a player who was not long ago one of the game’s best hitters. Plus, the fact that he is up to speed at third, and could still be used at first base or the corner outfield, does give Bautista some added versatility. The right-handed-hitting Bautista could fit reasonably well on the Mets’ current roster, which features a lefty-heavy outfield and southpaw-swinging veteran Adrian Gonzalez at first base.
Rays To Promote Willy Adames
The Rays are slated to promote infield prospect Willy Adames, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com (Twitter link). He’ll make his MLB debut at 22 years of age.
Adames has long been billed as a high-end prospect, though he was relatively unknown when he was shipped to Tampa Bay as a key piece in the 2014 David Price swap. At the time, he was an intriguing 18-year-old. Since, his profile has risen steadily.
Entering each of the past two campaigns, Adames was generally ranked by prospect hounds among the twenty-five or so best pre-MLB players leaguewide. In response, he has delivered an impressive forty-game stretch at the highest level of the minors. Thus far in 2018, Adames has compiled a .311/.387/.466 slash line with four home runs in 173 plate appearances for Durham.
Of course, Adames had already shown that he could produce at Triple-A. And that output falls in line with what Adames has done in prior seasons. He has long been a consistently quality producer at the plate, with good average, a solid walk rate, and manageable strikeout numbers. While he has yet to break out in the power department, evaluators generally expect there could be some added pop in the tank.
There’s good reason, then, to think that Adames is ready to contribute right out of the gates. He’s considered a polished defender at shortstop with quality makeup, so the expectation will surely be that he’ll be able to step into the everyday lineup if that’s what’s asked.
The Rays’ plans, though, aren’t yet clear. With Adeiny Hechavarria on the 10-day DL, Adames could receive regular time at shortstop, with the team reassessing its options once Hechavarria returns. On the other hand, the youngster may also just be up for a brief visit; after all, his active roster spot is coming from the placement of Joey Wendle on the paternity list, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets and the team has since confirmed.
West Notes: Treinen, Melancon, Lincecum
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle examines Athletics closer Blake Treinen‘s improved results since coming to Oakland last summer. The big righty has always shown phenomenal pure stuff in the majors, but had not quite figured out how to maximize it on the hill. While he’s handing out less walks than before, he’s also working in the zone less than in prior years. And he has generated less grounders (a still-impressive 53.3%) in exchange for a jump in swinging-strikes (all the way up to 18.8%). Treinen credits experience gained through “the maturation process.” Whatever the precise cause, the results — a 1.19 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 22 2/3 innings in 2018 — certainly suggest that he has settled in nicely.
Here are a few more relief-related notes from out west:
- The Giants, meanwhile, could soon face some interesting calls on their late-inning mix. As Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes, the club could welcome Mark Melancon back within two weeks or so, as the veteran reliever is set to begin a rehab assignment after opening the year on the shelf due to ongoing pronator issues. Skipper Bruce Bochy says the team will “let him get settled” rather than thrusting Melancon back into the closer’s role. Melancon, 33, is certainly being paid to handle the ninth. But Hunter Strickland has performed quite well in his absence, working to a 2.18 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. Just how that situation will be navigated over the course of the season remains to be seen.
- It also is not yet clear what kind of contribution the Rangers will get from righty Tim Lincecum. As Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes, the veteran hurler is only touching 90 mph with his fastball despite reportedly showing more in a pre-signing showcase. He has produced better results of late in his rehab work, but in sum he has managed a less-than-promising 8:6 K/BB ratio in 8 1/3 innings over six outings. Of course, that’s too small a sample to read much into things. It isn’t known yet when Lincecum will get a crack at the majors, but barring a setback it seems it’ll come between May 28th (when he’s first eligible to return from the 60-day DL) and June 6th (when his thirty-day rehab period will expire).
Twins Designate Phil Hughes
TODAY: Outfielder Ryan LaMarre is coming back up for the Twins, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets.
YESTERDAY: The Twins have designated righty Phil Hughes, per a club announcement (as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune was among those to tweet). Manager Paul Molitor says the organization has not asked whether Hughes would waive his right to reject a minor-league assignment, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports on Twitter.
It seems, then, as if this is the beginning of the end of Hughes’s tenure in Minnesota. The club will have seven days to find a taker via trade. Otherwise, Hughes will go on the waiver wire. He’s sure to clear, given his contract, though he would not need to accept an assignment to Triple-A in order to keep the money he’s guaranteed.
The Twins still owe Hughes the balance of a $13.2MM salary this year and another $13.2MM for the 2019 season. That’s what’s left of the five-year extension he signed in December of 2014, which overwrote the rest of the three-year deal that Hughes signed with Minnesota as a free agent in the prior winter.
Students of hot stove history will recall that sequence rather well. Hughes had seemed likely to sign a make-good deal after a disappointing end to his tenure with the Yankees in 2013. But he went with a $24MM guarantee over a trio of campaigns with Minnesota, then made good on the contract in year one by spinning 209 2/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball, with an unbelievable 186:16 K/BB ratio.
Unfortunately, the second pact — which boosted Hughes’s overall compensation while expanding the team’s control — just never worked out. He turned in 155 1/3 innings of 4.40 ERA pitching in 2015, but since has managed only a 5.99 ERA in 124 2/3 frames.
Health has been a major factor in recent seasons. Hughes requried two significant procedures to address thoracic outlet procedure, ending both his 2016 and 2017 seasons. He also dealt with knee and biceps injuries.
NL Central Notes: Krall, Vazquez, Anderson/Peralta, Hicks, Darvish
On his latest podcast, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand chats with just-minted Reds GM Nick Krall, who took a grinder’s approach to getting into the game. The back story is an interesting listen and also provides some insight into Krall’s background with the Moneyball-era A’s. Of what he learned from Billy Beane, Krall says he was impressed by Beane’s scope of knowledge of players from outside the Oakland organization along with his certitude as to “what he wanted on his team.” From former Reds GM Walt Jocketty, Krall says he learned to exercise greater patience. (Krall describes himself as “a very impatient person” by nature.) It’s a worthwhile listen for fans who want to learn more about the most recent person to be named a major-league general manager.
Here’s more from the NL Central:
- Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette looks at a few interesting subjects involving the Pirates. In particular, she dives into the question of fastball velocity in regard to closer Felipe Vazquez, whose slight loss of speed does not seem to represent much cause for concern — particularly since he has actually increased the spin rate on the offering. Though Vazquez only carries a 3.86 ERA on the year, it’s worth noting too that he has been hurt by a 58.3% strand rate. That said, while Vazquez is still getting loads of swinging strikes, his walk rate has gone backwards and he isn’t getting as many grounders as he has in years past. At this point, he hasn’t shown quite the level of dominance he did in 2017, but there’s not yet any reason to believe he won’t be a quality late-inning arm for the foreseeable future.
- The Brewers activated righty Chase Anderson from the DL to take the ball yesterday, optioning Freddy Peralta to open a roster spot. It’s certainly good news for Milwaukee that Anderson was able to bounce back quickly from illness; now, the 30-year-old will look go get back on track after a messy start to the year. He has managed a 3.86 ERA in 51 1/3 frames, but has showing worrying trends in his peripherals that have fielding-independent pitching metrics raising red flags (6.02 FIP; 5.36 xFIP; 5.16 SIERA). The brief respite for Anderson may not have been the worst thing for all involved. In addition to giving him a chance to get sorted, the team surely now feels like it has a better sense of Peralta’s potential to help at the MLB level in the near term. His second outing wasn’t quite as stirring as his first, to be sure, but Peralta impressed overall by allowing just four earned runs on four hits while recording 18 strikeouts against eight walks in 9 2/3 innings.
- Over at Fangraphs, there are a couple pieces well worth a read for fans of the division. Jeff Sullivan examines the curious case of Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, the flamethrowing reliever who has thus far registered very few strikeouts. It’s a well-balanced take on the youngster, who certainly has exhibited a fascinating skill but still will need to make improvements to become a dominant MLB reliever. Speaking of fastballs, Jay Jaffe looks at the arsenal of Cubs starter Yu Darvish and his reasonably promising return from the DL. It’s a complicated picture, but well worth a look for anyone looking to gauge where things are headed for the high-priced hurler.
Jorge Soler Hires ACES
Royals outfielder Jorge Soler has changed his representation, according to Robert Murray of Fan Rag. He will now be represented by the ACES agency.
Soler, 26, will finish the current season with over three years of MLB service, setting the stage for what could be a difficult decision. His original contract —signed after he left Cuba in 2012 — allows him to opt into arbitration upon reaching eligibility. (Though he finished 2017 with 2.143 years of MLB service, he wasn’t eligible as a Super Two because he lacked 86 days on the active roster in the immediately preceding season.)
Therefore, Soler’s new reps will have to help him determine whether to keep the existing deal, which promises $4MM annually through 2020, or instead to launch into the higher-upside, riskier waters of the arb process. If he keeps hitting as he has to this point in the 2018 season, going into arbitration might seem to be a pretty solid bet, though that’d mean giving up the guaranteed money for both of the two remaining seasons in hopes of commanding more in total.
Unless the contract specifies otherwise, it seems that Soler will be eligible for arbitration in the 2021 season regardless. But he could potentially earn more that year if he is seeking a raise from a loftier base rate than the $4MM that’s presently called for.
Whether the long-touted Soler is better off betting on continued production isn’t clear from the numbers. It has been a meandering path to this point. He exploded onto the MLB scene in 2014 before seeing his productivity dwindle in the next two seasons. After being dealt from the Cubs to the Royals, he struggled badly in 2017 and spent most of the year on optional assignment — though he did hit rather well at Triple-A.
Now, Soler is back to driving the ball like he did in his debut campaign. Over 177 plate appearances in 2018, he owns a .297/.401/.486 batting line with five long balls and a career-high 13.0% walk rate. Though his .379 batting average on balls in play is sure to fade, Soler has made plenty of hard contact as well.
You can find all current MLB agency affiliations in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Astros Release Jon Singleton
The Astros have released first baseman Jon Singleton, the team announced (h/t Mark Berman of FOX 26, via Twitter). He is currently serving a 100-game suspension for his third positive test for a drug of abuse.
Singleton had previously been outrighted off of the Houston 40-man roster. Once one of the team’s top prospects, he is best known at this point for failing to pan out in the majors after signing an extension just in advance of his initial elevation to the majors.
At the time that contract was entered, it drew quite a lot of criticism. Many were concerned that Singleton — at the time, one of several high-end prospects vying to become core members of a pre-breakout Astros team — had given the team too much upside for a $10MM guarantee. But the deal has clearly turned out to the advantage of a player that received a fairly minimal signing bonus as an amateur and has accrued limited MLB time since — a possibility we pointed out in a full analysis at the time.
Singleton is earning $2MM this year, the final guaranteed season in the contract. He’s still owed $1MM in total buyouts for the next three years, as well. The deal gave the Astros successive options at $2.5MM, $5MM, and $13MM that obviously will not be exercised.
Singleton’s only lengthy MLB action came in his first season with the ‘Stros. He picked up a few more in the 2015 season, but has not been back since. Through 420 plate appearances at the game’s highest level, he carries a meager .171/.290/.331 slash line with 14 home runs and 151 strikeouts against sixty walks.
Despite his struggles in the majors, Singleton remains an interesting hitter who could get a look elsewhere — at least, that is, if other organizations are willing to deal with his mounting problems with testing positive for drugs of abuse. Though he has always swung and missed a fair bit, Singleton has solid power and a phenomenal eye. Last year, for instance, he popped 18 home runs and drew 107 walks in his 500 Double-A plate appearances.