Extension Notes: Strasburg, Harvey, Encarnacion, Buchholz
Spring training is also extension season, and Steve Adams and I previewed things on a recent edition of the MLBTR Podcast. Several players have inked arb-only deals, and there have been a pair of interesting contracts for injury-risk relievers, but thus far only Dee Gordon (Marlins) and Brandon Crawford (Giants) have landed truly significant contracts this winter. There are already rumblings about some big names who could dabble with long-term negotiations, many of whom pose significant questions to their organizations.
Here are a few links to the latest extension chatter:
- It does not appear that the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg have any intentions of making a real effort at a new contract, as Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports. Agent Scott Boras had high praise for the Washington organization and its handling of the prized righty, but his comments suggest that a pre-season deal would come as a major surprise. “We amicably agreed to a one-year deal (for 2016),” Boras said. “He’s going to pitch, and we’ll see where it goes from there. It’s something we’ll be discussing at the end of the year.” None of that comes as much of a surprise, of course, as Strasburg has a chance at a huge contract if he can put up a healthy and productive campaign.
- There may be slightly more daylight for an extension in the case of another NL East, Boras-repped ace — Matt Harvey of the Mets — according to a report from ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin. Unlike Strasburg, Harvey can be controlled for two more seasons after 2016, so there’s quite a bit more ground to cover before he hits the open market. Harvey said he hasn’t heard any talk of negotiations, but indicated he would be willing at least to consider a long-term arrangement. Boras, meanwhile, provided a trademark analogy to explain his stance: “Expectations of an extension are like dinner invitations. They are always politely considered until you know the restaurant.”
- The Blue Jays have yet to open talks with slugger Edwin Encarnacion, his agent Paul Kinzler tells Morosi. That’s not surprising with camp still on the horizon, but the new Toronto front office has made clear it intends to make an effort to reach agreement with Encarnacion (and fellow star Jose Bautista). Kinzer indicated that he believes there’s plenty of time to work something out, with Encarnacion very open to the idea of foregoing free agency for the chance to cement his legacy with the balllub.
- Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz says that he doesn’t think the time is right to discuss a new deal, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. “I still think I have some stuff to prove before we even get into [extension discussions],” Buchholz told Mastrodonato. Boston probably feels similarly, particularly given that the roller-coaster righty is already controllable for 2017 (his age-32 season) by way of a $13.5MM club option.
International Notes: Otani, Padres, Ona, Morejon, Lazarito, Cards
22-year-old righty Shohei Otani, a standout in Japan’s NPB, has been drawing plenty of attention lately as his Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters train in Arizona. It’s not hard to see why, as the power righty is coming off of a season in which he put up a 2.24 ERA over 160 2/3 innings, with 11.0 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. Otani, who is also a productive hitter, says he’s always dreamed of playing in the majors, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom writes. But it’s not yet clear when that chance will arise. As Eric Longenhagen explains for ESPN.com, his current team has little incentive to post him now, given that it is capped at $20MM regardless of when it does so. But he does add that some believe the Fighters would allow him to depart if a request was made. If and when that occurs, you can expect a bidding frenzy unlike many others. As Ben Badler of Baseball America puts it on Twitter, he rates Otani higher than any pitching prospects currently in MLB organizations.
Here’s more from the broader baseball world:
- The Padres are expected to make some noise on the international market, as Badler writes and Longenhagen also covers in the above-linked piece. San Diego appears to be the favorite to land two high-end Cuban talents: 19-year-old outfielder Jorge Ona and young southpaw Adrian Morejon. (The Cubs had been seen as having an edge on the latter, per Badler, but now seem to have made way for the Pads.) Per the report, the club is also primed to add a few significant July 2 prospects from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
- GM A.J. Preller has long been known for his international attention and acumen, and it seems that he’s now putting that background to work as his organization looks to rebuild a lightly-regarded farm system. Indeed, the team appears to be giving quite a bit of attention to yet another young Cuban player, Lazaro “Lazarito” Armenteros, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune details. Like the Braves, San Diego would need to convince him to wait until the next July 2 period to avoid incurring penalties (for exceeding this year’s international spending caps) that would foul up other significant moves.
- We’ve heard previously that the Friars are among the clubs expected to bust their budgets in the coming July 2 signing season, and the Cardinals appear set to join them, Badler reports (building upon a recent report that St. Louis was looking to be aggressive). He notes that there’s some interplay with the possibility that the organization could be penalized relating to the Astros computer breach scandal, which might cost draft picks (or, conceivably, international money). Two names to watch for St. Louis, per Badler, are top Venezuelan outfielder Victor Garcia and 17-year-old Cuban center fielder Jonatan Machado.
- The recent MLB international prospect showcase had players from eight countries in attendance, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes, and there’s hope for further expansion in the future. Athletics GM David Forst says that the process of evaluating young international players has changed dramatically in recent years, with events like this featuring actual game action (rather than just workouts) providing a chance “to see these kids play in games against their peers and similar competition.”
Rosenthal Latest: O’s, White Sox, Ethier, Padres, A’s
There’s plenty of trade chatter as camp approaches, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes in a column today. That’s already been made evident by the notable deal struck earlier this evening. As always, a full read is recommended, but here are some of the highlights of the post:
- The Orioles would prefer to add Dexter Fowler after signing Yovani Gallardo — assuming they can get that deal done — says Rosenthal. But if that doesn’t work out for some reason, Baltimore’s backup plan would be to pursue a deal for Jay Bruce. The Reds appear to have realistic expectations with the veteran, who hasn’t been consistently productive in recent years and is owed $12.5MM this year (with a $13MM option for another season). Indeed, getting something done would likely require rather modest expectations. Though Bruce has shown quite a bit of talent over the years, and is still shy of thirty years of age, his track record over the past two seasons (.222/.288/.406) isn’t inspiring.
- The White Sox could be a threat on Fowler or other free agent outfielders, per the report. Chicago seems to have more interest in adding there than in pursuing Ian Desmond, as the team likes its internal options at shortstop. The South Siders are pushing on multiple fronts and might well also line up a deal for Avisail Garcia if they make a significant addition. The willingness to be flexible and seek creative avenues to value could certainly serve the Sox well as the winter wraps up; the team already seems to have done well in securing Mat Latos at just $3MM.
- Chicago’s interest in Andre Ethier has been overstated, says Rosenthal, but the Dodgers have indeed explored trade scenarios. It’s a complicated decision, as he notes, since Ethier has been plenty useful. Then there’s the fact that his contract status comes with some intricacies. Ethier is set to reach ten-and-five rights early in the year, and his vesting clause poses a bit of a barrier for possible suitors. From my perspective, it remains somewhat difficult to see another organization being willing to take on enough salary (and/or give back enough value) to make a deal work out. There’s $38MM still to go over two years, plus the threat of a reasonably attainable vesting clause, and that’s quite a bit for a player who will soon turn 34 and would come with expectations of being a solid regular rather than a difference maker.
- While the Padres are still looking around for deals, discussing players like Matt Kemp and Derek Norris, near-term deals for those prominent names appear unlikely. Likewise, the Athletics have had talks involving Billy Butler, and may even have had one opportunity to deal the struggling DH. Butler is more expendable than ever with Khris Davis now in the fold, though that addition hardly makes a trade inevitable given how much Butler is owed. Oakland will presumably hope he can rebuild value by carrying momentum from a solid finish to an otherwise rough 2015.
Orioles Discussing Three-Year Deal With Yovani Gallardo
FEB. 12, 6:38pm: A deal isn’t expected to come together this evening, Kubatko tweets.
9:06am: There’s some hope that the deal could be completed today, tweets Heyman, though the two sides are still debating whether the deal would be three years or three years plus an option, he notes. Once the Orioles have Gallardo’s deal wrapped up, the focus will shift to a bat, Heyman adds. They’ve been linked to Dexter Fowler, Jay Bruce and Pedro Alvarez recently.
FEB. 10, 5:07pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that “if and when” the deal between the Orioles and Gallardo is finalized, he’ll be guaranteed $40-45MM over three years.
10:40am: There’s momentum toward a deal, but some “tweaks” in the proposed terms are needed to finalize a pact, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).
9:54am: The sides are “moving close” to a contract that would include three guaranteed years, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. It’s possible that an opt-out would be included, adds Heyman, who notes that an agreement is not yet in place. Baltimore appears to be in the lead to add Gallardo and already recently began reviewing his medicals, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com adds.
9:30am: The Orioles are “making progress” in contract talks with free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has long been said to be interested in the soon-to-be 30-year-old, but this report provides the first indication of deepening negotiations.
Gallardo declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers at the outset of the offseason, of course, and thus requires a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick to sign. In the Orioles’ case, the team would stand to part with its first-round choice — currently, the 14th overall selection. And it has been hesitant to do that after already missing out on possible comp picks in two cases (Matt Wieters and Chris Davis).
It’s not clear to what extent other teams remain involved in the hunt for the veteran, but many of the organizations that seemed plausible landing spots have taken alternative routes to building out their rotation. For instance, the Astros signed Doug Fister and the White Sox added Mat Latos. Recent reports also suggest that the Rockies are no longer in pursuit of Gallardo.
The qualifying offer is obviously a factor in Gallardo’s market, as it is with any player who receives one, but the bigger question in his value lies in how you view his results against his peripherals. As Tyler Clippard‘s signing just proved, a lengthy track record of excellence may not always translate to corresponding earnings in free agency, even for somewhat younger pitchers, where there’s a lot of wear-and-tear and signs of declining underlying ability.
In the case of Gallardo, there’s plenty to like about his recent run prevention record, which includes 184 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching last year. But he’s also seen his strikeout rate fall all the way to 5.9 per nine with his walks rising to 3.3 BB/9. And Gallardo’s average fastball has declined by more than two miles per hour from his highest annual mean velocity.
It’s obvious to see why the Orioles are interested in bolstering a rotation that’s now without Wei-Yin Chen (who at least left a comp pick when he departed). There are options, to be sure. But there isn’t much in the way of upside — Kevin Gausman probably carries the most — and even some of the depth comes with its own questions. Baltimore figures to utilize Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez in the starting five, with pitchers such as Odrisamer Despaigne, Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson also factoring into the competition.
Ultimately, it’s not clear that Gallardo would end up representing a truly significant upgrade over Baltimore’s current options, but he’s an established arm with a nice track record of durability. It’s worth noting, too — as Steve Adams pointed out to me — that his strong groundball rate (49.3% last year) would figure to play well with a high-quality Orioles infield defense to back him.
Athletics Acquire Khris Davis, Designate Sean Nolin
The Athletics have acquired outfielder Khris Davis from the Brewers in a deal that will send catching prospect Jacob Nottingham and righty Bubba Derby to Milwaukee, per announcements from both teams. Oakland has designated pitcher Sean Nolin to clear roster space.
It’s certainly an interesting swap for both organizations. Oakland will presumably utilize the slugging Davis in left field, where he could share time with veteran Coco Crisp and another younger, right-handed slugger in Mark Canha. The move bolsters the club’s depth across the outfield grass while delivering some upside, too.
After all, Davis only just turned 28, will play at the league minimum this year, and can be controlled for three more seasons thereafter via arbitration. And he’s shown quite a bit with the bat, following a solid 2014 with an even better campaign last year. Over 440 plate appearances, he not only swatted 27 home runs, but posted a strong .247/.323/.505 overall batting line.
Davis is not very highly regarded with the glove, though defensive metrics have been mixed. He actually rated as a plus performer in left in 2014, but dipped into the negative territory last year.
The removal of Nolin from the 40-man roster is interesting to note, too. While he may yet remain with the A’s, if he can pass through outright waivers, the 26-year-old lefty was a not-insignificant part of last winter’s stunning Josh Donaldson trade. He wasn’t great in limited MLB action in 2015, allowing 17 earned runs and logging just 15 strikeouts in 29 frames, but had earned a promotion after battling through injury issues to post a 2.66 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 over 47 1/3 innings at Triple-A.
Looking at the Milwaukee side of the deal, the 20-year-old Nottingham looks like the jewel. He went to Oakland from the Astros — then the home of current Brewers GM David Stearns — as the key piece of last summer’s Scott Kazmir deal. He’s still a ways off, having only reached the High-A level, but does represent a theoretical long-term replacement for star catcher Jonathan Lucroy — who has, of course, been mentioned as a trade candidate quite often this winter.
Nottingham impressed last year, putting up a cumulative .316/.372/.505 batting line with 17 home runs over 511 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he did not crack Baseball America’s recent organizational top-ten list for A’s prospects, though others have been higher on him. John Sickels of SB Nation, for instance, rated him fifth among A’s prospects while noting that his bat is ahead of his glove. And Baseball Prospectus went so far as to place Nottingham as the 66th-best prospect league-wide.
Derby, a sixth-round pick in last year’s draft, had a strong debut in 2015. He only worked 37 1/3 total innings between Rookie ball and Low-A, but racked up 47 strikeouts while holding opposing clubs to just five earned runs. Soon to turn 22, Derby is a product of San Diego State University.
Parting with Davis appears to set up the Brewers to utilize youngster Domingo Santana in left field, giving him a clear shot at regular playing time. Milwaukee has several young players and rebound candidates who’ll be stepping into more regular roles, with an increasingly interesting slate of young talent approaching MLB readiness in the farm.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle first reported that a deal was nearing (Twitter links) and then tweeted that Davis would be heading to Oakland in the swap.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Aroldis Chapman
The Yankees have avoided arbitration with recently-acquired lefty Aroldis Chapman by agreeing to a one-year, $11.325MM deal, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
That figure comes in $275K above the midpoint between the two sides’ filing numbers of $13.1MM and $9MM. It does fall a fair sight shy of the $12.9MM payday projected by MLBTR coming into the winter.
Chapman, of course, came to the Yankees at a discounted price after it was revealed that he was allegedly involved in a serious domestic disturbance. While charges will not be filed against him, there is still a possibility of league discipline relating to the matter.
The Yankees will obviously hope that the investigation does not reveal cause for a lengthy suspension, with intentions of utilizing Chapman alongside fellow late-inning aces Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances in what could be the most fearsome trio of relievers ever seen in one pen. Anything close to a typical season from the dominating lefty would not only make the trade an easy win (from an on-field perspective, at least), but would set up New York to recoup a draft pick by making him a qualifying offer.
Last year may not quite have been Chapman’s very best overall campaign, but it probably cemented his status as the league’s best reliever regardless. He ended with a 1.63 ERA on the back of a ridiculous 15.7 K/9 strikeout rate. He did permit 4.5 free passes per regulation game, and doesn’t generate many grounders, but that hardly detracts from his near-invincible aura. Indeed, Chapman has struck out nearly half of the hitters he’s faced over the past two seasons and continues to work in the 99 to 100 mph range with his average fastball.
Marlins To Sign Craig Breslow To Minors Deal
The Marlins have agreed to a minor league pact with veteran southpaw Craig Breslow, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. He would earn $1.5MM if he can crack the MLB roster.
Though he had kicked around the idea of seeking a starting opportunity, Breslow will reportedly chase a pen slot in Miami. He also considered offers from the Cubs, Blue Jays, and Red Sox.
Working for Boston last year, the 35-year-old carried a 4.15 ERA over 65 frames with 6.4 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. While the results were improved after a tough 2014, Breslow wasn’t able to show quite the same form that led to a 2.82 earned run mark over his first 402 MLB frames over the span of 2005 to 2013.
The veteran’s groundball rate is down and his home run susceptibility is up, and it’s reflected in advanced metrics, which do not put a positive spin on his past two seasons. While he has long outpaced ERA estimators, and did so again in 2015, they are increasingly sour on his work (5.27 FIP, 5.07 xFIP, and 4.51 SIERA last year).
On the other hand, Breslow still pitches with about the same fastball velocity (he averaged 90.0 mph with his four-seamer last year) as he always has. And he boosted his swinging strike rate into double digits for the first time since 2012. He ought to have every opportunity to earn a job this spring in a Miami pen that was in need of options behind top southpaw Mike Dunn.
Athletics Nearing Trade, Likely With Brewers
5:27pm: Davis is indeed in the prospective deal, Slusser tweets.
5:06pm: The Athletics appear to be nearing some kind of trade, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). It appears to involve the Brewers, she suggests, with outfielder Khris Davis a possible target. Slusser also notes, though, that there’s “nothing official” and that the team has previously had interest in southpaw Will Smith.
That’s obviously not much to work from, but it certainly seems as if some kind of transaction could be going down this evening. We haven’t heard of any particular connection between these two clubs, but it’s not surprising to learn of one now. Oakland has been actively seeking to put a winning roster on the diamond for 2016, of course, while Milwaukee is headed in quite the opposite direction.
Indians Sign Tommy Hunter, Designate Tony Wolters
The Indians have signed righty-handed reliever Tommy Hunter to a one-year deal worth $2MM, per a club announcement and report from Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). To clear roster space, the club designated catcher Tony Wolters for assignment.
Hunter, 29, has been a fairly steady performer since moving over from the rotation. He wasn’t able to hold onto a closing gig with the Orioles, but still managed a strong 2.88 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 over 147 innings in 2013-14. Heading into last year, he seemed to represent an important piece of the O’s pen picture.
It turned out to be something of an odd 2015 campaign for the right-hander. He wasn’t trusted with many important situations in Baltimore — only 15 of his 39 appearances were in games the team ended up winning — and was sent out at the deadline by the still-contending O’s for a player who didn’t even see much action.
Of course, Hunter was much the same pitcher in his last 44 2/3 innings with the Orioles that he had been previously, carrying a 3.63 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He improved in the K:BB department upon moving to Chicago, racking up 15 strikeouts against just four walks over 15 2/3 frames, but also was touched for twenty hits (including four long balls) in that span.
All told, Cleveland looks to have made a solid addition to its pen by adding Hunter. He is said to be about a month behind schedule with camp approaching, though, having undergone offseason core muscle surgery. That could help explain why he wasn’t able to secure a larger and/or longer contract.
Wolters, 23, is a rare breed: he converted from the middle infield to catcher and still sees a bit of time at short and second. he played last year at Double-A, putting up a .209/.290/.280 slash with two home runs and three steals over 271 plate appearances. The former third-round pick obviously has some work to do at the plate in order to bring his interesting defensive skillset to the majors.
Jenrry Mejia Gets Lifetime Ban After Third Positive PED Test
Mets reliever Jenrry Mejia has been banned permanently from the majors after his third positive PED test, according to a league announcement. Remarkably, Mejia tested positive for the banned substance boldenone after earning two suspensions just last year.
It’s a truly stunning result, made all the more surprising given that Mejia was on track to resume his career with New York. Indeed, he recently agreed to a $2.47MM salary to avoid arbitration. While he was already to sacrifice a good portion of that money to finish serving his second suspension — which was of the 162-game variety — he’ll lose the remainder after today’s news.
Mejia becomes the first player to receive a permanent ban under MLB’s “three strikes and you’re out” PED policy. There is a provision that will allow the 26-year-old righty to seek reinstatement, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com notes on Twitter. But even if successful, he’d have to wait one year to ask and serve a minimum two-year ban.
In a statement, the Mets said that the club is “deeply disappointed” in Mejia. He had seemed destined to return to a prominent place in the club’s pen after finishing out his second ban. While New York seemed primed to cut ties at one point, the upside in Mejia’s cheap contract and rested, youthful arm certainly justified the risk. But Mejia somehow proved unable to avoid PED usage even while subject to stepped-up testing as a prior offender.
After failing to hold down a rotation job in 2014, Mejia had shown real promise in a relief role. He ended that campaign as the team’s closer, posting 28 saves and working to a 2.72 ERA over 56 1/3 innings out of the pen. While he has since been supplanted in the ninth by Jeurys Familia, Mejia certainly seemed to have a plausible chance of winning back a set-up role later in the 2015 season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.