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Poll: Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?

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After more than a decade in the majors, Jurickson Profar finally lived up to his top prospect billing in 2024, his age-31 season. The switch-hitter slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and an NL-leading 18 hit-by-pitches. He did just about everything well, posting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and above-average power numbers. His 139 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters, while his 4.3 FanGraphs WAR placed him among the top 25 position players in either league. Even better, his Statcast expected metrics matched his actual output; his .364 xwOBA put him in the 92nd percentile of MLB hitters. With numbers like that, it was no surprise that Profar started for the NL All-Stars in the summer and collected a Silver Slugger at the end of the year.

Profar turns 32 next month, and his age, along with his spotty track record from 2012-23, will limit his earning potential in free agency. That’s why he ranked below fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, despite outperforming both of them in wRC+ and fWAR last season. Nonetheless, the possibility that he could repeat his All-Star performance in 2025 should entice several suitors, and for that reason, Profar is easily the top outfielder still available on the free agent market. What’s more, his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, along with the fact that he is not saddled with the qualifying offer or seeking a particularly long-term commitment (he’s eyeing a three-year deal) should make him a good fit for any team in need of an impact bat in a corner outfield spot.

Indeed, with Santander off the market, the Profar rumor mill has picked up in recent days. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “a number of teams” are interested in his services, including the Blue Jays and Astros. After signing Santander, Toronto is set in the corner outfield department with Santander in left field and George Springer in right. However, the Jays could still use another bat, and they could facilitate the addition of Profar by rotating Profar, Santander, and Springer between the corner outfield and the DH spots. GM Ross Atkins recently made it clear the Blue Jays have money left to spend this winter as they strive to return to contention after a disappointing 2024. There is no doubt that Profar would help them move toward that goal.

As for the Astros, they could desperately use some more thump in the outfield after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. With manager Joe Espada on the record that Houston would like to limit Yordan Alvarez’s playing time in the field, the club’s current outfield options include Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell. As I wrote back in December, “It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.” Thus, it’s easy to see how Profar fits into the picture. The only question is if GM Dana Brown has the payroll flexibility to make such a signing. Earlier this month, KPRC’s Ari Alexander reported the Astros were “unlikely” to sign Santander because it would require a contract that would put them “well into the competitive balance tax for the second consecutive season.” Profar won’t command quite as high of a salary, but the Astros are already above the first luxury tax threshold as it is (per RosterResource). So, Brown might need to make a trade to clear some payroll before he can pursue any more free agent additions. Offloading Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary from the books would surely help.

While Feinsand did not name any other suitors, the Royals are one more team that has been linked to Profar this winter. Joel Sherman of the New York Post connected the two sides back in November, writing that the Royals had “their eye on” the left fielder. However, there hasn’t been much smoke to that fire since, and Sherman’s report came before Kansas City traded for Jonathan India. Still, the Royals continue to seek another impact bat for their lineup. Although reporting has suggested they’d prefer to work on the trade market – they inquired about Nolan Arenado earlier in the offseason – signing Profar is another route they could take.

Two further landing spots to consider are the Angels and Tigers, both of whom were reportedly interested in Santander before he signed with the Blue Jays. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press described the Angels as one of the “frontrunners” to sign Santander, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post also mentioned Santander when he linked the Angels to Pete Alonso, acknowledging that the outfielder was a better positional fit. The Angels currently have Taylor Ward and Jo Adell penciled into the corner outfield spots, but Ward is a potential trade candidate (even if rumors of his availability may have been overblown) and Adell has hardly done enough to warrant a guaranteed starting job. Anthony Franco recently wrote about what the Angels could do next in a post for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, and he touched on Profar as a potential target.

Meanwhile, Petzold described Santander as a potential backup plan for the Tigers if they could not sign third baseman Alex Bregman. Considering that talks between Bregman and the Tigers are reportedly “at a standstill,” perhaps Detroit will pivot to Profar. After all, if the Tigers had interest in one switch-hitting corner outfielder, it stands to reason they’d have interest in another. While Riley Greene has one corner outfield spot on lock, manager A.J. Hinch could play Profar in the other corner. In addition, Profar could occasionally platoon at DH with Kerry Carpenter, who has struggled against left-handed pitching so far in his young career.

It would also be foolish to count out a reunion between Profar and the Padres. San Diego clearly likes what he brings to the table, having acquired him four separate times, first in a trade and then as a free agent in 2021, ’23, and ’24.  Moreover, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller worked in the Rangers’ international scouting department back when the team first signed Profar in 2009. It’s hard to imagine Preller could have lost interest now, given that Profar is coming off the best season of his career. On top of that, the Padres certainly still have space for him, having made no moves as of yet to replace his bat in the lineup. The big question, however, is if San Diego can afford to pay what Profar is seeking. The Padres are reportedly trying to reduce their payroll from its current $208MM projection (per RosterResource), which means they might need to offload some salary before considering any upgrades in free agency.

One more team that showed interest in Santander this winter was the Red Sox, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggests Boston is not actively pursuing Profar. That makes sense in light of manager Alex Cora’s recent comments that he hopes to use Masataka Yoshida in the outfield more often; Boston’s outfield picture is already quite crowded. In addition to Yoshida, the Red Sox have a pair of young, talented corner outfielders in Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. They also plan to use Ceddanne Rafaela as an outfielder “as much as possible” instead of shuttling him back and forth between shortstop and center field. On top of that, the Red Sox have top prospect Roman Anthony to consider. The promising outfielder could be ready for his MLB debut at some point in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets were both serious suitors for Hernández earlier this winter, but the Yankees filled their hole in the outfield with Cody Bellinger, while the Mets presumably addressed that need by signing Jesse Winker. Other contenders that have already addressed needs in the corner outfield include the Orioles, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. Notably, the Braves are one team not on that list. While they have not been linked to any notable free agent outfielders so far this winter, they were thought to be exploring the outfield market back in November. They could certainly use another outfielder if Ronald Acuña Jr. opens the season on the injured list, and even once Acuña returns, they might prefer an upgrade over Jarred Kelenic. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll currently sits about $31MM below last year’s final figure, which should give them plenty of flexibility to offer Profar the kind of contract he’s looking for.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Profar will ultimately end up? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Ogasawara, Potential Trades, Contreras

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Here are three things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball today:

1. Ogasawara’s posting window:

The Chunichi Dragons posted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara for MLB clubs on December 10, giving him until January 24 to sign a deal. That deadline is fast approaching. If he and his reps at WME don’t strike an agreement with an MLB team by tomorrow, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for the 2025 campaign.

Ogasawara, 27, was an NPB All-Star for the first time in 2023 and was arguably even better this past year, reducing his ERA from 3.59 to 3.12 and increasing his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 3.27 to 3.73. He also lowered his home run rate from 0.8 HR/9 to 0.6 HR/9. However, it’s important to keep in mind that runs are harder to come by in NPB than MLB, and Ogasawara’s numbers aren’t exactly dominant by NPB standards. His ERA, strikeout rate, and home run rate were all worse than the Central League average in 2024. His strikeout rate was at 24% as recently as 2022 but has dipped in each of the past two years, bottoming out at a discouraging 13.6% this past season. That said, this year’s 3.7% walk rate was phenomenal. His plus command could help him land a spot at the back of a team’s rotation, though it’s possible he’d fit better in a bullpen role in MLB. Readers looking to learn more about the lefty can check out a detailed scouting report on Ogasawara from Sports Info Solutions’ Brandon Tew.

Very little news has come out about Ogasawara since he was posted, making it difficult to gauge his market and even harder to predict what size of contract he might sign. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $12MM deal for Ogasawara when we ranked him at No. 48 on our Top 50 Free Agents list earlier this offseason, based largely on his youth and command.

2. Waiting for the next notable trade:

While the trade market has been relatively slow so far in January, the rumor mill has remained active. The Dodgers are reportedly gauging interest in right-handed reliever Ryan Brasier, while the Twins and Padres are said to have discussed a deal involving catcher Christian Vazquez. Minnesota also has interest in Padres ace Dylan Cease. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ bullpen search has led them to consider trading for veteran Astros reliever Ryan Pressly, though his no-trade rights could make that difficult.

The biggest name still on the trade market is third baseman Nolan Arenado. While reports have suggested Arenado is now less likely to be dealt than he was earlier in the offseason, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said he is still trying to find a deal. However, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. recently suggested an Arenado trade isn’t a necessity, and his club isn’t desperate to cut payroll in 2025. Perhaps that means Arenado will stay in St. Louis after all, or perhaps those comments are intended to give the Cardinals some extra leverage — be it in Arenado negotiations or in potential trade talks for other veterans on the roster.

3. Roansy Contreras DFA resolution:

The Orioles designated right-handed reliever Roansy Contreras for assignment last week after claiming infielder Jacob Amaya. That kicked off a seven-day countdown for the O’s to either trade Contreras or run him through waivers. Today marks the end of that week-long period. The waiver process can take up to 48 hours, so it’s safe to presume the righty was placed on waivers Tuesday. By some point today, we should find out if another team will claim him or if the Orioles can send him outright to the minor leagues. He has never been outrighted previously in his career and does not have the necessary service time to reject an outright assignment.

Contreras, 25, began his career as a prospect in the Yankees organization before the team traded him to the Pirates as part of the deal that sent Jameson Taillon back to New York. He pitched in parts of four seasons with Pittsburgh from 2021-24 before the Pirates traded him to the Angels this past May. Since finishing off the 2024 campaign with L.A., he has bounced between several teams on waivers, going from the Angels to the Rangers to the Reds to the Orioles. He has a career 4.72 ERA and 4.66 SIERA in 90 games (33 starts) and clearly offers enough upside for several teams to be interested in claiming him off. Perhaps that upside will convince yet another team to take a chance on him today. If not, the O’s can stash the former top prospect in Triple-A Norfolk as a depth arm.

Poll: Spencer Torkelson’s Future With The Tigers

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When the Tigers took Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in 2020, Baseball America described him as “the safest pick at the top of the draft” and a potential “middle-of-the-order force,” à la Pete Alonso. And keep in mind, they weren’t talking about present-day Alonso, who is struggling to find a market in free agency, but rather a younger version who had just set the MLB rookie record with 53 home runs in his debut campaign.

Torkelson tore up the minor leagues in 2021, rising from High-A to Triple-A and mashing at every level. Ahead of his rookie season in 2022, he was a consensus top-10 prospect in the game. Most sources, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic’s Keith Law placed him in the top five. The only players who ranked ahead of him on every one of those lists were Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Suffice it to say, the future was bright for the young first baseman.

Yet, the bright lights of the big leagues proved too much for a 22-year-old Torkelson. He didn’t just fail to reach his sky-high ceiling. Rather, his supposedly sturdy floor completely collapsed. In 110 games, the righty batter barely managed a .200 average and a .600 OPS. He hit just eight home runs, and his .117 isolated power was well below average, especially for a first baseman. While his expected stats were slightly more promising, a 34th-percentile xwOBA could hardly assuage the very real concerns about his lifeless bat. What’s more, a mid-season demotion back to Triple-A did little to help. He was surprisingly ineffective in the minors, too, posting a .738 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 35 games.

Torkelson got off to a similarly poor start in 2023, but he turned things around late in the year. Through the end of July, he had a .707 OPS and 94 wRC+, with 15 home runs in 104 games. Those were better numbers than he posted in 2022 but still disappointing for an MLB first baseman and well below expectations. Then, from August 1 through the end of the season, Torkelson finally seemed to tap into his full potential. He crushed 11 doubles and 16 home runs in 55 games, good for a .282 ISO. His .855 OPS and 133 wRC+ were similarly impressive, and his .364 xwOBA was right in line with his .362 wOBA. The sample size was small, but considering everything Torkelson had done in college and the minors to become a top-10 prospect, it was hard not to think the powerful slugger was finally becoming everything the Tigers hoped he could be.

Then came 2024. Over the first two months of this past season, Torkelson looked like his rookie self again, slashing .201/.266/.330 with a 71 wRC+. That led to another minor league demotion, and things didn’t look much better at Triple-A. The man who terrorized minor league pitchers in 2021 was nowhere to be seen, and he put up a .799 OPS and 108 wRC+ in 58 games. Torkelson looked better upon his return to the Tigers in August, but his late-season performance wasn’t as convincing as it was in 2023. His 125 wRC+ was powered by a high BABIP and a wOBA more than 20 points above his xwOBA. While his 11.3% walk rate was a promising sign, his 32.5% strikeout rate suggested he was still often overmatched against big league pitching. That certainly seemed to be the case in the playoffs, when he went just 4-for-21 with an 82 wRC+ in seven postseason games.

Three seasons into his major league career, Torkelson’s top prospect shine has worn off. In close to 1,500 plate appearances, he has failed to establish himself as an above-average hitter, let alone an everyday first baseman. The Tigers could afford to let him play through his issues during their rebuild, but now that they have eyes on contention, it will be harder to justify giving regular reps to such a mediocre bat. To that point, they seem to have already replaced him on the roster. After signing Gleyber Torres to play second base, Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that Colt Keith will be the team’s primary first baseman in 2025. With Keith at first base and Kerry Carpenter at DH, it’s hard to see how Torkelson fits in. Torkelson was once a more promising prospect than either of them, but Carpenter has mashed at the major league level (career 136 wRC+), and the Tigers showed their faith in Keith with a six-year, $28.6425MM extension before he’d even made his MLB debut. Without a guaranteed contract or much big league success, Torkelson is on the outside looking in.

If Torkelson plays well this spring, the Tigers could still find a way to get him in the lineup. To that point, Harris says he told Torkelson, “If you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.” At the very least, the righty batter could be the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Carpenter. Last year, manager A.J. Hinch tried to shield Carpenter from southpaws, against whom he has a career 69 wRC+. Meanwhile, Torkelson has a 111 wRC+ in 357 career PA against opposite-handed pitching. Keith is a left-handed hitter, too, so Torkelson could also spell him at first base with a tough lefty on the bump. If top prospect Jace Jung struggles (and the Tigers don’t add another third baseman in free agency), the team could be forced to move either Keith or Torres over to third, freeing up playing time for Torkelson at first base. Finally, Detroit could also consider giving Carpenter more run in the outfield if Torkelson is hitting well enough to deserve the reps at DH.

Of course, that all relies on Torkelson doing enough to convince the Tigers to give him another serious chance. An alternative route, and perhaps the best possible outcome for everyone involved, would be trading Torkelson to a team that can offer him a more regular role. Not only might a change of scenery do him some good, but consistent playing time at a consistent position can only help as he tries to figure things out at the plate. One can understand why Detroit might be hesitant to sell low on a former first-overall pick. On the other hand, it will be hard for him to increase his trade value when he isn’t playing every day. If the Tigers trade him now, at least they could guarantee some sort of return. A true rebuilding club like the Marlins could offer Torkelson the most playing time, but other teams that could be looking for an inexpensive right-handed first base/DH bat include the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Twins. Torkelson still has an option, so sending him back down to Triple-A Toledo is another possibility.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Spencer Torkelson will be come Opening Day? Share your thoughts by voting in the poll below!

The Opener: Yates, Minter, Diamondbacks

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After yesterday’s exciting Hall of Fame announcement, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball this Wednesday:

1. More clarity about Yates’s potential deal with the Dodgers?

When USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the potential deal between the Dodgers and Kirby Yates, he described it as a “tentative agreement.” From that wording, it wasn’t clear if anything other than a standard physical was holding things up. However, further reporting suggested a deal wasn’t quite that close. For instance, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times wrote the two sides were merely “working toward a deal,” with the Dodgers “trying to make [Yates] yet another impact addition to their pitching staff.”

Presumably, more details will come out soon, and barring any previously unknown injury issues, it seems likely Yates will be a Dodger in 2025. Two key details that have yet to be revealed are the length and dollar value of the “tentative agreement.” MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14 million contract for the All-Star reliever on our Top 50 Free Agents list earlier this offseason.

Speaking of Dodgers bullpen signings, the team has also yet to finalize Tanner Scott’s four-year, $72 million contract. They have one open spot on the 40-man roster, so they will be able to formally announce one new contract without making an additional transaction but will need to make a corresponding move before finalizing another.

2. Mets to announce Minter?

It has now been five days since the Mets reportedly agreed to terms with free agent reliever A.J. Minter on a two-year, $22 million contract. However, they have not yet officially announced him as the newest member of the club. The Mets already have an open spot on the 40-man roster, so they do not need to figure out a corresponding move. Thus, they are presumably just waiting for the results of his physical to come back clean.

The deal will likely be finalized any day now, although it’s worth remembering the 31-year-old Minter is coming off of left hip surgery that ended his 2024 season in mid-August, lending some extra importance to that physical exam. Minter was one of the most reliable relievers in the game from 2020-23, and the fact that he landed a $22MM guarantee ($6MM higher than MLBTR’s prediction) shows how highly the Mets value his skill set.

3. What’s next for the Diamondbacks?

The Diamondbacks confirmed they’re all in for 2025 when they signed star pitcher Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million deal. Yet, they have been quiet ever since, with their only additions in January being utility infielder Grae Kessinger and backup catcher René Pinto. Considering how little the Padres have accomplished this offseason, the D-backs are in a great position to leapfrog their division rivals. At the same time, considering how much the Dodgers have done this winter, the D-backs need to keep adding if they want any chance to compete for the NL West crown. For example, the team could use another back-end reliever to replace Paul Sewald and at least one more bat to make up for the losses of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk.

However, it’s possible that GM Mike Hazen might not have much left to spend. While owner Ken Kendrick has declared that “every dollar” of revenue will be reinvested in “ballplayers and not in the ownership,” he also claims his team is “stretching the budget” as is with the Burnes contract. Perhaps the next move for the Diamondbacks is to try to offload some of Jordan Montgomery’s $22.5MM salary so they can use those savings to bolster the lineup or the bullpen.

Athletics Sign CD Pelham To Minor League Deal

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The Athletics have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander CD Pelham, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal for the Pro Edge Sports Management client includes an invitation to big league spring training.

Pelham is a minor league journeyman who has spent time in the Rangers, Cubs, Padres, and Angels organizations over the past 10 years. Texas drafted the southpaw 978th overall in 2015. A little more than three years later, he made his MLB debut in Arlington, suiting up for the Rangers in 10 games down the stretch of the 2018 season. Over 7 2/3 innings, he gave up six earned runs on 12 hits, striking out seven but walking four. Unfortunately, Pelham struggled badly in the minors the following year, putting up an 11.97 ERA and 7.86 FIP in 42 games between Double and Triple-A. Suffice it to say, he did not make his way back to the majors with Texas. Instead, he found himself designated for assignment after the season.

The Cubs claimed Pelham off of waivers in November 2019. Yet, due to the canceled 2020 season and an injury that cost him the 2021 campaign, he did not appear in a game with the Cubs organization until May 2022. He was solid but unspectacular that year at Double and Triple-A, posting a 4.35 ERA and 4.73 FIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. After electing free agency, Pelham latched on with the Padres for 2023, but an injury and an inconsistent performance left him with a final line of 14 1/3 IP and a 7.53 ERA across a handful of stops in San Diego’s farm system.

Pelham opened the 2024 campaign in the Mexican League, pitching well enough for the Leones de Yucatán (1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 IP) to land a minor league deal with the Angels mid-season. Yet, despite his pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 3.75 FIP over 10 games in the Angels system, he was released at the end of July.

The southpaw returned to Mexico this offseason to pitch in the Pacific Winter League. He has thrived with the Tomateros de Culiacan (2.25 ERA in 28 IP), and evidently, the A’s liked what they saw. It’s still a long shot that Pelham will make it back to the majors in 2025, but the Athletics’ lack of pitching depth gives him a chance to return to a major league mound for the first time since 2018.

Padres, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres and Dylan Cease have avoided arbitration, as reported by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander will earn $13.75MM in 2025. That’s $5.75MM more than his salary last season and just a hair over his $13.7MM salary projection, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Cease, 29, was everything the Padres could have hoped for in 2024 after they sent Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and  Steven Wilson to the White Sox last March to acquire him. In a league-leading 33 starts, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The Padres went 20-13 (.606) in his outings.

The 2024 campaign marked a resurgent bounceback for Cease following his disappointing 2023. After finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022, the righty lost velocity on his fastball the next season and finished with a 4.58 ERA. The underlying numbers suggested Cease was the victim of some rotten luck (and some terrible defense), but no matter how you sliced it, he didn’t look quite as dominant as he was the year before. In addition to his declining velocity, his strikeout rate was down, his hard-hit rate was up, and his 4.10 SIERA ranked 25th out of 43 qualified pitchers.

In 2024, Cease put all concerns to bed and proved he is still a frontline starting pitcher. His velocity was back up on all his pitches, and he even toyed with a new sweeper – to good results (.218 wOBA, 38.5% whiff rate). He ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in SIERA, FIP, and xERA, while cementing himself as one of the most durable starters in the league. Over the past four years, no one has started more games. Even the diminished version of Cease on display in 2023 would be well worth a $13.75MM salary. If he’s at the top of his game again in 2025, he’ll be one of the more underpaid aces around. Fortunately for Cease, if he can do that, he’ll be putting himself in a strong position to cash in big as a free agent next winter.

As for the Padres, they’ll be even more reliant on Cease in 2025 after losing fellow All-Star righty Joe Musgrove to a UCL injury in October. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove will miss the entire 2025 campaign. That makes it all the more surprising that Cease’s name has come up in trade speculation this offseason. While there is no indication the Padres are actively shopping their ace, teams have inquired about his availability, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has not said anything to shut down the trade rumors. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote, teams that have called the Padres about Cease “haven’t been rebuffed entirely.”

The Padres are reportedly trying to get their payroll down to somewhere in between last year’s $169MM total and this year’s current estimate of $208MM (per RosterResource). Trading Cease and his $13.75MM salary could allow the Padres to accomplish that. He’s not their most expensive player, but of the nine Padres set to earn eight figures in 2025, he is certainly the most tradeable. Still, the Padres are planning to compete this season, and it’s very difficult to imagine them trading their best starting pitcher to trim payroll without significantly hurting their chances in the NL West. It’s hard enough to find a pitcher of Cease’s caliber at any price, let alone on a one-year, $13.75MM deal.

Mariners, Randy Arozarena Avoid Arbitration

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The Mariners have avoided arbitration with Randy Arozarena, as first reported by Francys Romero. The left fielder will earn $11.3MM in 2025, slightly less than his projected $11.7MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). He will be eligible for arbitration once more ahead of the 2026 campaign.

Arozarena, 30 in February, is coming off the least productive season of his MLB career. Entering the 2024 campaign, the former AL Rookie of the Year had a career .802 OPS and 127 wRC+ in just over 2000 trips to the plate. In 2024, his OPS dropped to a career-worst .720, while his wRC+ fell to a career-worst 114. Those are still above-average numbers, to be clear, but a step back from his All-Star-caliber performances of the past.

On the bright side, Arozarena hit significantly better after a deadline trade from the Rays to the Mariners, raising his wRC+ from 109 to 122. Interestingly, the biggest difference between his numbers with Tampa Bay and Seattle was his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He actually struck out more often and hit for less power with the Mariners, but his BABIP increased from .249 to .323. That could be good news for Arozarena, who came into the year with a career .331 BABIP, far higher than his overall .275 BABIP in 2024. If more of his batted balls drop for hits in 2025, he could get back to being a far more productive hitter once again.

Even in a down year, Arozarena hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases, achieving his fourth straight 20/20 season. He also ranked among the top five qualified AL batters with an 11.3% walk rate. On top of that, he reached 600 plate appearances for the fourth year in a row. Since his debut in 2019, his only two stints on the injured list have been due to COVID-19 protocols. An outfielder who can play every day while offering a rare combination of power, speed, and plate discipline is a valuable player indeed; he’d command far more than $11.3MM on the open market. He will certainly be valuable to the Mariners, who need as much offense as they can get. Seattle’s pitching staff is among the best in the league, but the bats failed to support the arms last season. That’s precisely why the M’s brought Arozarena in at the deadline. They’ll be counting on him to continue producing at the plate in 2025.

Padres, Luis Arraez Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Arraez will earn $14MM in 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility. A $14MM payday represents a nice raise for the infielder, who made $10.6MM in 2024, though it’s slightly less than his projected $14.6MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

The Padres acquired Arraez in a trade with the Marlins last May. Although he represented San Diego at the All-Star Game this past summer and finished the season with an NL-best .314 batting average, the 2024 season was a down year for Arraez. His .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ were well below his .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022-23. In addition, his defensive numbers were worse than ever. He managed to accrue -3 DRS and -6 OAA at first base and -3 DRS and -7 OAA and second base. Thus, the Padres ended up using him as their DH a good amount of the time, which only further decreased his overall value.

If Arraez can shore up his defense and get back to hitting like he did in 2022 and ’23, he will still be a bargain for San Diego at a $14MM salary. However, the Padres are thought to be trying to cut payroll this winter. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll for the 2025 season is $39MM higher than their final payroll at the end of 2024. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is reportedly trying to bring the payroll down to somewhere in between its current projected figure and last year’s final tally. If Preller plans to reduce payroll and still make any additions this winter, he will almost certainly have to trade some of his more expensive veterans. Thus, Arraez’s name has popped up in trade rumors.

About a month ago, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres had engaged in internal discussions about trading Arraez. It’s not hard to see why. His contract is more tradeable than the longer-term deals belonging to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts,  Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, or Yu Darvish. Dylan Cease surely has more trade value than Arraez, but for the same reasons, the Padres might be more likely to want to keep him around. Cease is projected to earn $13.7MM in arbitration, a similar number to Arraez’s $14MM salary. So, trading Cease would free up a similar amount of payroll as trading Arraez, but it would mean giving up a far more productive player.

Yet, the only team to be formally linked to Arraez this winter is the Yankees, and it’s unclear how interested New York really is. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Yankees have “continued to discuss” Arraez with the Padres, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino have pushed back on that connection. Martino reports that the Yankees “briefly” checked in on Arraez in November and “have not engaged with the Padres” on the subject since.

To further complicate matters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is now reporting that the Padres “plan to keep” Arraez after all. That’s somewhat surprising if the team is still serious about trimming payroll, but perhaps the Padres decided teams around the league were undervaluing Arraez after his down year in 2024. That might be the right decision. After all, if he can get back to being the hitter he was from 2022-23, the Padres would have a hard time replacing that kind of production for less than $14MM.

Oswaldo Cabrera Drawing Trade Interest

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As the Yankees’ roster currently stands, Oswaldo Cabrera might be the most likely option to be the team’s regular third baseman in 2025. He has appeared in 92 career games at the hot corner, more than anywhere else on the diamond, and has put up excellent defensive metrics in that small sample of playing time. In 706 2/3 innings, he has 9 Defensive Runs Saves, 4 Outs Above Average, and a +3 Fielding Run Value. However, Cabrera has struggled to make the same kind of impact at the plate throughout his brief big league tenure. In 827 plate appearances from 2022-24, he has a .643 OPS and an 80 wRC+. Thus, FanGraphs estimates he has only been worth 1.3 Wins Above Replacement in 268 career games.

With all that in mind, it’s no surprise the Yankees are pursuing infield upgrades. For instance, they have recently been linked to players like Jorge Polanco, Brendan Rodgers, and Luis Arraez. If New York were to add any of those players – or a different second or third baseman – Cabrera would be the odd man out in the starting lineup. That would relegate him to a bench role once again in his age-26 season. So, it makes sense that multiple teams have reportedly spoken with the Yankees about Cabrera’s availability in a trade this winter (per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic). A rebuilding club or a contender with less infield depth might have more playing time to offer Cabrera in 2025 and therefore might value him more highly than the Yankees. What’s more, the market for lower-tier infielders is thin right now. Plenty of teams might prefer to take a chance on Cabrera’s upside than sign a known (and aging) entity like Enrique Hernández or Whit Merrifield. Cabrera is still young, still has room for growth, and won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2026.

That being said, Kuty also mentions that the Yankees “don’t seem likely” to trade Cabrera. After all, he could be their most valuable utility player this year. He’s a safer bet than the declining DJ LeMahieu and more of a proven major leaguer than former top prospect Oswald Peraza or current prospect Jorbit Vivas. What’s more, Cabrera can also play the outfield corners. He only played a handful of games in the outfield last season, but he has close to 900 innings of left and right field experience under his belt. That’s the kind of versatile bench player the Yankees could use even if/when they add another starting infielder. Indeed, this team should certainly understand the importance of position player depth. Thanks to his flexibility and good health, Cabrera has taken the field in 224 games over the last two seasons. Only two current Yankees have played more games for the team in that time: Anthony Volpe and Aaron Judge.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Phil Maton

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The Red Sox have already signed two free agent relievers to major league deals this offseason: veteran closer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Justin Wilson. What’s more, Liam Hendriks, another star closer, should be back in the ’pen after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury. Still, Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the bullpen as an area he’s looking to further improve. It makes sense; Red Sox relievers ranked 24th in ERA and 20th in SIERA last season, while finishing with the second-most blown saves in the AL – and that was before losing Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Thus, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox have “checked in on a long, long list” of names in pursuit of bullpen upgrades. That includes Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle, and Andrew Kittredge. On Wednesday, Cotillo added Phil Maton to that cohort.

Maton, 32 in March, is coming off an up-and-down season split between the Rays and Mets. The right-hander struggled in Tampa Bay after signing a one-year, $6.5MM contract (with a club option for 2025) last offseason. Over 40 games and 35 1/3 innings with the Rays, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. By the end of his brief tenure in Tampa Bay, his strikeout rate was sitting at a career-low and his walk rate at a career-high. Despite the highest groundball rate of his career, he was struggling to prevent runs.

Yet, after a midseason trade to the Mets that was little more than a salary dump on the Rays’ part, Maton bounced back. Across 31 appearances for New York, he tossed 28 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA and 2.97 SIERA. His strikeout rate rose to 26.5% – the same above-average level it was at in 2022 and ’23. Meanwhile, his 5.3% walk rate was lower than ever. Although his groundball rate dropped substantially, he gave up just one home run to the 113 batters he faced, thanks in large part to a much lower average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Despite Maton’s successful denouement in Queens, the Mets chose to not exercise their $7.75MM option for his services in 2025. Nonetheless, there is no reason to think he’ll have trouble finding a major league deal elsewhere, although it will probably come with a lower salary. He has already been linked to the Blue Jays this winter, and the Red Sox are the second team known to have interest.

By the end of the 2024 season, Maton’s overall numbers were perfectly respectable: a 3.66 ERA and 3.82 SIERA in 64 IP. It marked his third consecutive campaign with an ERA under four and his fourth surpassing 60 innings of work. Since his first full season in 2020, Maton has a 3.87 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 294 games. In that time, he ranks among the top 10 MLB relievers in appearances and innings pitched. He may not be a dominant, high-leverage arm, but there is certainly value in a reliever who stays on the field and consistently provides average to slightly above-average performance. To that point, the Red Sox already have several high-ceiling back-end hurlers in Chapman, Hendriks, and Justin Slaten. What they could use, however, is a reliable, middle-inning arm to raise the bullpen’s floor. Maton could certainly be that guy.

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