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Johan Oviedo To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Pirates right-hander Johan Oviedo was known to be undergoing tests for a serious arm injury, and the specifics of the injury are now known, as reporter Francys Romero (via X) writes that Oviedo will undergo Tommy John surgery.  Oviedo will miss all of the 2024 season, but given the usual 12-14 months associated with recovery, should hopefully be ready to return to a big league mound by Opening Day 2025.

Losing an entire season is a tough setback for Oviedo, who posted solid numbers for the Pirates in his full season as a Major League starter.  Oviedo started 26 of his 40 Major League appearances with the Cardinals and Pirates in 2020-22, though had mostly been relegated to bullpen work in St. Louis before the Bucs acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline.  Oviedo started all seven of his games for Pittsburgh post-trade, setting the table for a semi-breakout year this past season.

Oviedo (who turns 26 in March) had a 4.31 ERA, as well as a 20.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate that were both well below the league average.  On the plus side, his 44.9% grounder rate was more than decent, and Oviedo’s 177 2/3 frames ranked him within the top 30 in innings pitched last year.  This durability was a huge help on Pittsburgh’s overall young and shaky pitching staff, and it made Oviedo essentially the No. 2 starter behind Mitch Keller.

Pittsburgh was already looking to add pitching heading into the winter, ideally landing at least one veteran arm that could push Oviedo to the middle or even the back end of the rotation.  Unfortunately, he’s now out of the 2024 plans altogether, leaving the Bucs in even greater need of starting help.  Keller, Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, and former first-rounder Quinn Priester are probably the Pirates’ starting five if the season began today, though some upgrades are certainly needed to bolster this largely unproven group.  Of course, payroll is always a concern for the Pirates, so the search for arms might be limited to perhaps one notable veteran on a multi-year (as in two or at most three years) deal, and then lower-cost veterans on one-year pacts or minor league deals.

The Cuban-born Oviedo was an international signing for the Cardinals in 2016, and worked his way up the ladder for some big league action despite some less-then-stellar numbers in the minors.  Oviedo has a 5.37 ERA over 115 2/3 career innings at Triple-A and even a 5.65 ERA in 113 Double-A frames, as quite a few walks offset some solid strikeout numbers.  Those control problems have continued into Oviedo’s time in the majors, yet even settling into a role as a back-end starter who can eat innings can make for steady work.

The question now is whether or not Oviedo will be able to retain his durability after this major arm surgery.  While plenty of pitchers have returned from Tommy John procedures no worse for wear, there is always a threat that more elbow problems could arise in the future, which could impact Oviedo’s ability to stick as a starting pitcher.  Losing a year will already have an adverse effect on his earning power, as Oviedo will now be in line for a pretty low salary when he becomes arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter.

AL Central Notes: Lugo, Royals, Twins, Vazquez, Kelly

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Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.

The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around.  After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023.  This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services.  Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers.  Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins’ roster is broken down by The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes, including some talk of potential offseason moves and target areas.  With Christian Vazquez’s name recently surfacing in trade rumors, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a deal is possible, but Gleeman notes that Minnesota would likely have to eat a good portion of the $20MM remaining on Vazquez’s contract to facilitate a deal, and thus “trading him may not even save that much money, in which case there’s really no reason to do it.”  Hayes thinks a Vazquez trade might be more likely to come closer to midseason, theoretically after Vazquez has rebuilt some of his value with a solid performance in the first few months of the 2024 campaign.
  • Sticking with the Twins, their plan to cut payroll has been the big headline of the Minnesota offseason.  In a mailbag piece with readers, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune hears from a player agent that the Twins will be much more likely to pursue upgrades via trades before they “seriously” look at free agent signings.  Offering backloaded contracts to free agents also doesn’t make much sense, either for the free agents themselves or for the Twins, as Nightengale notes that Minnesota will want to save future money for its own players (i.e. for arbitration raises or contractually-manded raises).
  • It has been a tough few years for Carson Kelly, as injuries and a lack of performance have sidetracked the career of the former top prospect and seeming breakout catcher during his days with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks.  Kelly signed with the Tigers after being released by the D’Backs in August, and the catcher will be staying in Motown as Jake Rogers’ backup after the Tigers exercised their $3.5MM club option on his services for 2024.  With his immediate future now secure, Kelly tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the next step is to spend the offseason fixing his swing mechanics, as well as working on catching from a one-knee stance as opposed to a traditional crouch.  “It’s for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone, and I’m already in a better position to block….It just puts me in a better position to react to wherever the ball is,” Kelly said.

Jung Hoo Lee Likely To Be Posted In Early December

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11:02PM: The KBO officially requested to Major League Baseball that Lee be posted (reporter Jiheon Pae had the news first, and thanks to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz for the update).  This doesn’t necessarily speed up the timeline reported by Yoo earlier tonight, as Yoo reiterated that “with the Thanksgiving holiday, the process likely won’t begin in earnest until early December.”  Once Lee is posted, his window will only be 30 days, not 45.  The change to a 45-day posting period was made last offseason for NPB players, though it appears as though players coming from the KBO League have just the original 30 days to find a contract.

9:42PM: The Kiwoom Heroes gave Jung Hoo Lee’s medical records to KBO League officials yesterday, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports (via X).  Between the usual review protocols between both the KBO and then MLB officials, Yoo figures that Lee will be officially posted for Major League teams in early December, factoring in a bit of delay given the Thanksgiving holiday.

That will officially open the floodgates on what is expected to be a brisk market for Lee’s services, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that 20 teams are interested in the outfielder.  With this many teams potentially in the hunt, it certainly seems like Lee could match or exceed MLBTR’s projection of a five-year, $50MM contract, a prediction made due to both Lee’s impressive track record in South Korea and the fact that he is only 25 years old.  The Giants, Yankees, and Padres are the teams who have been publicly linked to Lee’s market to date.

While Lee’s expected price tag will be much lower than that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the two players share some market similarities due to their young age of 25.  In theory, both have lots of prime years ahead and perhaps haven’t even reached their peak, whereas many players coming to the majors from Japan or South Korea are already in their late 20’s or into their 30’s by the time they’re posted, or by the time they amass enough service time for full free agency.

Because NPB is seen as a higher caliber of league than the KBO and because Yamamoto is seen as more of a true elite talent, his expected contract will naturally be higher than Lee’s, since some scouts aren’t entirely sold on how Lee’s bat will translate to much power against MLB pitching.  Some comps have been made to Masataka Yoshida but with a higher defensive ceiling, even if Lee might not stick in center field.  Lee’s platform year was also limited to 86 games due to season-ending ankle surgery, and while he should be healthy for Spring Training, he missed a critical chance to further showcase himself for any doubting evaluators.

In short, there’s plenty of room for variance on the kinds of offers that Lee might get, since there’s bound to be a wide range of opinions within a 20-team field.  Some teams might drop out of the running simply because they’ve made other outfield acquisitions in the interim, maybe before Lee’s posting window even opens.  Other teams who have a larger presence in international scouting will have more data on Lee, though that perhaps would work either for or against him depending on a club’s opinion.

As per the league posting rules, Lee will have 45 days to sign with a Major League team once his posting period opens.  If he can’t land a contract within those 45 days, he’ll return to the Heroes for the 2024 KBO season and have to wait until next winter for another chance at coming to the big leagues.  While it seems likely Lee will find an acceptable deal to come to North America, a return to South Korea can’t be entirely ruled out.  There could be lingering concerns over his health or perhaps just how he’ll adjust to the majors, or Lee and his agents at the Boras Corporation might not be satisfied with the offers on the table.

The Heroes will receive a posting fee tied to Lee’s eventual contract, with the new MLB club paying this fee on top of what they give to Lee himself.  The Heroes will get 20% of the first $25MM of a contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything beyond the $50MM threshold.  At MLBTR’s projection of a $50MM deal, the Heroes would get a $9.375MM posting fee.

NL Notes: Playoff Shares, D’Backs, Gibson, Price, Mets

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Championship rings carry much greater import than financial gain during a postseason run, but teams that reach the playoffs get extra revenue that is divvied up into shares.  The Associated Press reported the figures on the 2023 playoff pool earlier this week, and how the $107.8MM in playoff revenue was divided amongst the 12 playoff teams, with more money naturally going to the teams who advanced furthest.  According to numbers released by the league, the Rangers got $38.8MM (split into 64 full shares, 12.56 partial shares and $48,000 in cash awards) and the Diamondbacks got 71 full shares and 11.49 partial shares out of their bonus of $25.9MM.

How the shares are awarded within a clubhouse is determined by veteran players on each team.  Several players and managers automatically qualify for full shares, but the players must then vote on what other players (such as someone who was with the club for only part of the season) or uniformed personnel (coaches, trainers, support staff, etc.) will also get full or partial shares.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal shared some insight into the process, and how the D’Backs made their decisions in who and who didn’t get a $313.6K full share, but the team did its best to spread the wealth.  “I’m not rolling my eyes over a $300K check.  I’m just saying the impact that it has on me is not going to be as significant as on any of our younger players who have limited service time or our clubhouse attendants or our kitchen attendants,” Evan Longoria said.  “That impact is going to be much, much more for them….I want you guys to understand the perspective that I’m coming from when I say it’s life-changing for these people.”

More from around the National League…

  • The Cardinals’ signing of Kyle Gibson this week ended a very long pursuit, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted that the team’s interest in the right-hander dated all the way back to Gibson’s 2009 draft year.  “Multiple times since, the Cardinals have attempted to sign or trade for Gibson” Goold wrote, before finally landing Gibson on a one-year, $12MM deal.  The local connection was obvious, as Gibson played his college ball at the University of Missouri and he already lives in the greater St. Louis area during the offseason.  The righty’s results have been up-and-down over his 11 MLB seasons, but Gibson’s ability to eat innings should be very valuable for a Cardinals team badly in need of rotation depth before Gibson and Lance Lynn were brought on board.
  • Newly-hired Giants pitching coach Bryan Price spoke with The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly this week about his decision to join the team, and end his three-year retirement from coaching.  Price had spent the last two years working as a a special advisor with the Padres and working with longtime friend and colleague Bob Melvin, so when Melvin left the Padres to become the Giants’ new skipper, Price couldn’t resist a reunion in his hometown of San Francisco.  Giants fans might also be interested in Price’s more old-school approach to pitching, coming off a 2023 season that saw the team use mostly bulk pitchers, openers, and piggyback starters to cover innings in patchwork fashion.  “I’m a simple person when it comes to my overview on pitching: The starters pitch the bulk of the innings and you utilize your bullpen as needed….So we can be creative but we’ve got to be responsibly creative in how we use the data and what we decide is usable information versus what takes us into a place where we’re constantly chasing greatness and it’s only taking us into mediocrity or failure,” Price said.
  • Before the Mets hired John Gibbons as their new bench coach, the New York Post’s Mike Puma reported that Phil Nevin was a candidate for the job.  Let go as the Angels’ manager after the season, Nevin has a long relationship with Mets skipper Carlos Mendoza from their days on the Yankees’ coaching staff.  There was some speculation that former Mets manager Willie Randolph might’ve been a candidate for the bench coach job given Mendoza’s praise of his former mentor, but Newsday’s Anthony Rieber suggests Randolph could still return to the Mets in another capacity.

Padres Interviewed Adrian Gonzalez During Managerial Search

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Former Padres star Adrian Gonzalez was interviewed as part of the team’s recent managerial search, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and MLB Network’s David Vassegh.  Gonzalez made it deep into the process, with Vassegh describing him as one of three finalists for the job, along with bench coach and eventual hire Mike Shildt.

Among the known candidates, Shildt and Phil Nevin had managed at the MLB level before, while Flaherty, Carlos Mendoza (hired by the Mets as their manager) and Benji Gil had experience on Major League coaching staffs.  Gonzalez was an outlier in comparison, as he doesn’t have any experience as a manager or coach in the big leagues or even in the minors.  While most of San Diego’s candidates were former players, the 41-year-old Gonzalez brought perhaps a different perspective as not only a player, but as an established superstar during his 15-year MLB career.

This might be the first managerial search in baseball history to ever include two former first overall draft picks, between Nevin (selected first overall in 1992) and Gonzalez (in 2000).  Gonzalez lived up to that lofty potential by hitting .287/.358/.485 with 317 homers over his 8046 career plate appearances.  His resume included five All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, three finishes within the top seven of MVP voting, and just recently became eligible for the Cooperstown ballot since it has been five full seasons since his last Major League game.  While Gonzalez isn’t likely to receive induction to the Hall of Fame, just making the ballot is a notable recognition of an outstanding career.

This first-hand knowledge of what it takes to be a top-tier Major Leaguer might’ve had some appeal to the Padres, given the number of high-profile stars on the roster.  Given past rumblings about tumult within the San Diego clubhouse, the Padres might’ve seen Gonzalez as an interesting candidate as perhaps something of both a boss and a peer for San Diego’s players, given that Gonzalez’s playing career only recently wrapped.  President of baseball operations A.J. Preller also has a long history with Gonzalez, as the first baseman broke into the big leagues with the Rangers in 2004 just when Preller had been hired to join the Texas front office.

It makes for an interesting what-if within the Padres’ managerial hunt, and it remains to be seen if Gonzalez might seek out further coaching or managerial opportunities in the future, whether with the Padres or another organization.  This job had obvious specific appeal to Gonzalez because he was born in San Diego and because he played with the Padres from 2006-10.

With Shildt now hired, attention will turn to the coaching staff.  The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes that pitching coach Ruben Niebla and bullpen coach Ben Fritz are likely to remain, though Fritz interviewed for the Angels’ pitching coach job that eventually went to Barry Enright.  The third base coach and associate manager’s position are both open after the departures of Matt Williams and Ryan Christenson, and it might be interesting to see how whether the “associate manager” role remains at all, or if it was somewhat unique to the division of duties between Christenson and Flaherty.

Shildt has been working for the Padres for the last two years, so it isn’t as if he is an entirely new skipper coming in and wanting to install his own staff.  That said, Lin isn’t sure if Flaherty (who is both the bench coach and offensive coordinator) could be back after coming up shy in the managerial search.  This uncertainty might also extend to first base coach David Macias, who Lin describes as close with Flaherty and possibly also a candidate to leave if Flaherty isn’t back in 2024.  Lin also notes that Shildt isn’t expected to make any coaching hires from the Cardinals, his longtime former team before his arrival in San Diego.

Yankees Showing Interest In Jordan Montgomery

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The Yankees seem to be considering a reunion with former rotation stalwart Jordan Montgomery, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  The club has been “looking at” Montgomery as a possible offseason signing, and it appears to be slightly more than just due diligence, as Heyman writes that “the Yankees have been particular about rotation targets.”  Previous reports have linked such arms as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Frankie Montas, Yariel Rodriguez, and (before he re-signed with the Phillies) Aaron Nola to the Yankees’ pitching wishlist, and it’s probably safe to assume the Bronx Bombers have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani even though he won’t be able to pitch in 2024.

Obviously Montgomery is a known quantity for the Yankees, having started his pro career in the pinstripes after being drafted in the fourth round in 2014.  Debuting in the majors in 2017, Montgomery posted a 3.94 ERA, 22.68% strikeout rate, and 6.93% walk rate over his 502 2/3 innings with New York, establishing himself as a solid and even underrated member of the starting five.

Despite this success, the left-hander was dealt to the Cardinals at the 2022 trade deadline in a move that since become infamous in the Bronx.  Harrison Bader came from St. Louis in the one-for-one-swap, and apart from a spectacular power surge during the Yankees’ 2022 playoff run, Bader’s time in New York was a disappointment.  The outfielder played in only 98 regular season games due to injuries, and hit .237/.274/.353 over 359 plate appearances before the Yankees put him on waivers this past August.

Meanwhile, Montgomery’s star (and free agent price tag) only continued to rise.  He pitched well for St. Louis during the rest of the 2022 season and into 2023, though the Cardinals’ own struggles saw Montgomery again on the move at the deadline, this time to the Rangers.  From there, Montgomery became one of the key factors of the Rangers’ World Series run — he posted a 2.79 ERA over 67 2/3 innings in the regular season just to help Texas get into the playoffs, and the lefty then had a 2.90 ERA over 31 postseason frames.

MLBTR ranked Montgomery sixth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a six-year, $150MM contract.  Nola received the same projection and landed a seven-year, $172MM deal from Philadelphia, so it is quite possible Montgomery might also beat our prediction even though he is six months older and has a past Tommy John surgery on his record.  However, Montgomery wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer due to the midseason trade, so a team that signs him wouldn’t have to surrender any draft picks or international pool money as compensation.

This is undoubtedly of interest to a Yankees team that surpassed the luxury tax last year, and thus would pay the higher penalty of two picks and $1MM of int’l bonus money for signing any qualified free agent.  New York’s interest in such players as Nola, Ohtani, or Cody Bellinger indicates that the Bombers are open to signing QO-rejecting free agents, though it’s fair to speculate that the Yankees might be willing to take the plunge for only one such player.  For instance, Bellinger might be a bit of a priority since hitting is a greater need for the Yankees, but they could then also look one of many non-QO pitchers, including top-tier names like Yamamoto or Montgomery.

It is fair to speculate whether or not the past history with Montgomery and the Yankees is an obstacle in any negotiations.  Naturally GM Brian Cashman would love to have a do-over of the Bader trade, and since his concerns over Montgomery’s viability as a postseason starter have now been firmly proven wrong, what better public mea culpa than a $150MM contract?  Montgomery might see it as water under the bridge and be willing to return to complete some unfinished business in the Bronx.  On the other hand, it seems possible that Montgomery simply wants to move on from an organization that once considered him expendable, and would prefer to join either a new team altogether or one of his other former clubs in Texas or St. Louis.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes

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November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.

November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time.  ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.

It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander.  Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.

Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings.  With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace.  Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.

Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system.  Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America.  Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.

The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself.  The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark.  Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.

The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities.  It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.

Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market.  Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors.  With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left.  Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.

Blue Jays “Open To” Alek Manoah Trade Offers

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After finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Alek Manoah had a disastrous 2023 season, posting a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings while suffering a significant loss of control.  Manoah’s hellish year included a month-long stint in the Florida Complex League to try and solve his sudden mechanical issues, as well as a later option to Triple-A Buffalo in August that didn’t result in any actual pitching appearances with the Bisons.

With all this in mind, it perhaps isn’t surprising that rival executives have told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “the Blue Jays are open to moving” Manoah in a trade, and teams have made calls in general asking about Toronto’s rotation depth.  Of course, teams are often willing to listen on virtually any player, so it isn’t clear if Toronto is merely doing its due diligence in not dismissing offers for Manoah, or if the Jays are actively shopping Manoah in some regard.

It’s difficult to call Manoah a true trade candidate given the still somewhat mysterious nature of his down year.  Some type of injury seemed to be a factor, as Jays GM Ross Atkins said in October that Manoah received a PRP injection to treat some shoulder discomfort.  Manoah also went through some medical testing during his stint in Buffalo, but there were also reports of some hard feelings between Manoah and the team, perhaps regarding how the minor league option might’ve cost Manoah enough service time to claim Super Two status.

Only the Jays and Manoah himself have an idea of his status heading into 2024, or if even that might still be unclear until Manoah gets some offseason or Spring Training work under his belt.  Obviously no team is going to pay a big price for Manoah without having more understanding of what exactly is plaguing the 25-year-old right-hander, so that alone limits Toronto’s leverage in any trade discussions.

By that same token, if Manoah just needs to get healthy, it is possible he could enjoy a swift return to form.  Should such a bounce-back happen, the Blue Jays obviously want to benefit, rather than selling low on Manoah and then watching him rebound on another club.  That said, “selling low” is still better than selling for nothing, and another mediocre season might ruin Manoah’s trade value entirely.  Manoah’s rough season is just one season, and rival teams might feel they have an answer to Manoah’s mechanical problems, or that a trade itself might get Manoah on track if there is indeed bad blood between the righty and Jays management.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently speculated that the Blue Jays and Cardinals might line up on a Manoah trade, perhaps involving such past Jays trade targets as Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, or Brendan Donovan.  With Carlson and Tyler O’Neill both struggling for the last two seasons after some early success in their MLB careers, the Cards and Jays could theoretically explore moving two “sell low” candidates for each other, hoping that mutual change of scenery would benefit all parties.  St. Louis is one of many teams looking for pitching this winter, and with the Jays having a wide array of holes to fill in the lineup, several clubs could be fits if Manoah was indeed available.

The other question about a Manoah trade is how it would impact Toronto’s rotation.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are set as the top four, with Manoah being the favorite for the fifth spot though Atkins made no guarantees.  If teams are asking about the Blue Jays’ pitchers in general, any of Bowden Francis, Mitch White, Wes Parsons, or even Kikuchi could be available at the right price.  Such a deal involving another pitcher would imply that Toronto is confident Manoah can bounce back, or that the Jays are perhaps exploring acquiring another pitcher for more stability at the back end of the pitching staff.

Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching

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Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.  A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.”  Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances.  Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.

That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent.  Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.

Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason.  Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A.  Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.

This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez.  If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.

In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training.  2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship.  The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.

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