Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

Brewers Add Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick To 40-Man Roster

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2024 at 10:45am CDT

The Brewers added right-handers Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick to their 40-man roster in advance of today’s Rule 5 deadline, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports (X link). Since Milwaukee has two more open spaces on the 40-man, McCalvy writes that more players could still be protected prior to 5pm CT.

Henderson was a fourth-round pick for the Brewers in the 2021 draft, though an elbow surgery kept him from making his pro debut until over a year after his draft date. After pitching only 13 2/3 innings in 2022, Henderson tossed 78 2/3 frames at A-ball in 2023, then 81 1/3 innings across four different minor league levels this past season. The overall numbers (3.32 ERA, 32.8% strikeout rate, 4.73% walk rate) were very impressive, though Henderson had a 4.56 ERA in 23 2/3 Triple-A innings and ran into some home run trouble.

Henderson’s signature pitch is a plus changeup that is so effective that it allows him to get away with a fastball that has movement but sits in the 88-92mph range. This two-pitch arsenal could mean that Henderson will ultimately end up as a reliever, though obviously the Brewers will first give him plenty of looks to see if he can further develop as a starting pitcher. Since the 22-year-old Henderson has already cracked the Triple-A level and could be close to his Major League debut, it stands to reason that he might’ve gotten a lot of attention from teams in the Rule 5 Draft.

MLB Pipeline ranks Henderson 11th among all Milwaukee prospects, while Baseball America ranks him 21st. Patrick isn’t on either outlet’s top-30 list, though considering his solid amount (158 innings) of Triple-A experience, he also likely would’ve been on rival teams’ R5 radars.

Patrick was also a fourth-round pick in 2021, as the Diamondbacks took the right-hander nine spots before the Brewers selected Henderson. Arizona dealt Patrick to the Athletics for Jace Peterson at the 2023 trade deadline, and the A’s then flipped Patrick to the Brewers almost exactly one year ago in the trade that sent Abraham Toro to Oakland.

After struggling badly in 2023, Patrick found his footing in his new organization, posting a 2.90 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate across 136 1/3 innings with Triple-A Nashville. While a .267 BABIP and 79.2% strand rate helped Patrick’s cause, he started 24 of his 26 games and delivered quality bottom-line results, thus earning his first 40-man placement. Since the Brewers frequently churn pitchers up and down from the minors, the 26-year-old Patrick also could get a look for his MLB debut next season.

Jim Crane: Astros “Have The Wherewithal To” Match 2024 Spending

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2024 at 10:15am CDT

Since the league suspended luxury tax payments for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, 2024 technically marked the first time that the Astros exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Houston’s team-record $244MM payroll came with an approximate tax number of $262MM, thus putting the Astros over the second tier ($257MM) of tax penalties. The increased price tag could be viewed as the cost of keeping together a perpetual contender, and sure enough, the Astros again won the AL West in 2024 before being upset by the Tigers in the wild card round.

The Astros now enter the offseason with a lot of money still on the books. RosterResource’s projections have Houston at roughly a $215MM payroll and a $233.7MM tax number for 2025, putting the Astros just under the $241MM CBT threshold. A few million could be shaved off via non-tenders, yet a bigger move like re-signing Alex Bregman could alone bring Houston pretty close to its 2024 figures, even before the Astros addressed other roster needs.

Owner Jim Crane at least left the door open to spending at the same level and paying another tax bill, telling The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters that “we have the wherewithal to do it if we need to do it.” However, Crane added caveats by noting “it just depends on what players are available. It’s pretty evident what needs we have. We want to try and field the best team we can without going crazy….We run it like a business and we make good decisions.”

Even these measured comments might bring a little relief to Astros fans worried about how aggressive the team plans to be this winter. GM Dana Brown said last month that “we may have to get a little bit creative” in the roster plans, and it should be noted that Crane’s remarks don’t contradict Brown’s statement in any way — naturally, every team wants to be as efficient as possible in its spending.

Crane mentioned that “we have some money coming off the payroll next year,” which could provide a hint to Houston’s longer-term plans. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Ryan Pressly, and Victor Caratini are all slated to hit free agency next offseason, and the Astros will also be free of the dead-money commitments still owed to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero. While retaining Tucker or Valdez is certainly on Houston’s radar, the Astros could conceivably be willing to re-sign Bregman or make another splashy move or two this offseason and take the one-year CBT hit with an eye towards perhaps resetting its tax status next winter once they get more salary relief.

Speaking of Bregman, Crane reiterated the team’s desire to retain the longtime third baseman. The team’s strategy is to let Brown handle the talks with Bregman’s agent Scott Boras, though Crane noted that he personally spoke with Boras “once early” in the offseason. Crane acknowledged that the Astros were also looking at potential Plan B options if Bregman did sign elsewhere, though that is common due diligence for any front office.

A’s Sign Jason Alexander To Minor League Contract

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2024 at 9:39am CDT

The Athletics have signed right-hander Jason Alexander to a minors deal, according to Alexander’s MLB.com profile page. The contract presumably includes an invitation to the Athletics’ big league Spring Training camp. Alexander returned to minor league free agency at season’s end after spending the 2024 campaign pitching with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate.

Alexander went undrafted in 2017 but signed with the Angels as a free agent, and the A’s now represent the fifth different organization the righty has played with during his seven pro seasons. The resume includes one season in the majors, as Alexander posted a 5.40 ERA over 71 2/3 innings with the Brewers in 2022, working as both a swingman and reliever in his 18 appearances.

While not a standout performance, Alexander’s ability to generate grounders and work as a swingman made him a candidate for Milwaukee’s roster heading into 2023 Spring Training, but a shoulder injury kept him out of action until a minor league rehab assignment that June. The Brewers outrighted him off their 40-man roster a month later and then moved on entirely after the season, leading to Alexander landing a deal last winter with the Red Sox.

Over 328 1/3 career innings at Triple-A, Alexander has a 5.04 ERA, 7.04% walk rate, and 18.85% strikeout rate. Alexander is a grounder specialist who has regularly posted groundball rates north of 55%, though his lack of real strikeout power has limited his ceiling.

Still, the 31-year-old can eat innings and work in a variety of roles, giving him value as a depth arm for the A’s to evaluate at Triple-A, or perhaps consider for a look on the big league roster. If he does make the team, it’ll be something of a homecoming for Alexander, whose hometown of Windsor, California is within a few hours’ drive from the Athletics’ temporary new home of Sacramento.

The Opener: Rule 5 Roster Deadline Day, QO Decisions Due, Managers Of The Year

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2024 at 8:04am CDT

On a particularly busy day on the offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Rule 5 deadline day:

One of the under-the-radar busiest transactional days of the baseball year, this is the final day for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft (which takes place on December 11). Plenty of clubs will be facing some tricky decisions on which eligible prospects will be protected from the R5 with roster spots, and creating that roster space will result in some DFAs, releases, or perhaps trades of players already taking up room on the 40-man.

Teams have until 5pm CT today to finalize their rosters, so expect a pretty big flurry of moves to come later this afternoon. Eligible players who aren’t added to the 40-man could find themselves changing organizations on December 11, and there’s risk for teams in potentially losing an interesting prospect for virtually nothing.

2. Qualifying offer decisions due:

The 13 players who received qualifying offers from their teams have until 3pm CT to officially decide whether or not to accept or reject the one-year, $21.05MM contract. Nick Martinez has already agreed to accept his QO and remain with the Reds, but it appears that he’ll be the only member of the 13-player class to take the deal. As per recent reports, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Nick Pivetta are all likely to reject the qualifying offers in search of longer-term contracts in free agency. While there was perhaps a bit of question as to whether any of those pitchers could take the one-year payday, there is zero doubt that the other nine free agents issued QOs (Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Fried, Anthony Santander, Juan Soto, and Christian Walker) will reject the offer and test the open market.

If a player turns down the qualifying offer, there are consequences for both his former team and his next team, assuming the player signs elsewhere. The free agent’s former team will receive a compensatory pick in the 2025 draft, with the placement of that pick depending on the team’s status as a revenue-sharing team or luxury-tax payor. Likewise, clubs that sign a qualified free agent face a penalty in the form of surrendering money from the international draft pool or giving up at least one draft pick. While the QO penalty won’t stop a team from signing a superstar like Soto, we’ve seen in the past how rejecting a qualifying offer can effect offers for free agents who aren’t quite at the top of the market, so it will be interesting to see which (if any) of this year’s class could be impacted.

3. Manager Of The Year announced:

Each league will announce the winner of the Manager of the Year awards tonight at 5pm CT. All three American League finalists come from the AL Central, as the Guardians’ Stephen Vogt, the Royals’ Matt Quatraro, and the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch all led their teams from losing records in 2023 to playoff appearances in 2024. The improvement was especially pronounced in Kansas City, after Quatraro lost 106 games in his first season as the Royals’ skipper. Hinch led a big turn-around just within the 2024 campaign itself, as Detroit went from also-rans to an ALDS berth after going 31-13 over its last 44 regular-season games. Vogt had big shoes to fill in replacing Terry Francona in Cleveland, but Vogt made an immediate impact as the Guards won the AL Central and then advanced all the way to the ALCS.

Over in the National League, Padres skipper Mike Shildt is looking to become a two-time winner of the award, as he previously won the MOY in his previous job as the Cardinals’ manager in 2019. In his first season in San Diego, Shildt brought the Padres to a 93-win performance and then to the NLDS, where the club lost a heartbreaking five-game series against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers. Carlos Mendoza took the Mets a step further to the NLCS in his first year as a big league manager, as the Mets won 89 games and narrowly secured a wild card berth in what was initially expected to be something of a rebuild year for the organization. Expectations were also somewhat limited for the Brewers in the wake of Burnes being traded, Brandon Woodruff’s injury, and Craig Counsell’s departure, yet Pat Murphy kept the ship on course in his first year as Milwaukee’s manager. The longtime Brewers bench coach stepped into the big chair and immediately led the Crew to another NL Central crown.

Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Willy Adames

By Mark Polishuk | November 18, 2024 at 11:04am CDT

Willy Adames is drawing “very broad” interest in free agency, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) naming the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, and Red Sox as clubs looking at the shortstop. The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are also mentioned in a somewhat more speculative fashion, under the general premise that teams with infield needs — rather than specific shortstop needs — have Adames on their radar.

Reports surfaced a couple of weeks ago that Adames was open to moving off shortstop if the situation warranted, thus further opening up his market of potential suitors. Looking at Morosi’s list, the Braves would seemingly be the only one of the four clubs that would be looking at Adames as a shortstop, since Atlanta has a clear need at the position.

Orlando Arcia struggled through a very rough year at the plate in 2024, and replacing Arcia with Adames at shortstop would provide a huge upgrade to the Braves’ lineup. Signing Adames would represent a new frontier for Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, as Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 offseason is the largest free agent contract Anthopoulos has handed out over his seven-plus years running the Braves’ front office.

Adames’ expected contract would more than double Ozuna’s deal. MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM contract for Adames. Adding somewhere in the range of $26.6MM in average annual value onto the Braves’ books would continue to boost a payroll that has plenty of long-term commitments in place, though Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias are both free agents after the 2025 season, and technically Chris Sale could be as well if Atlanta doesn’t exercise a club option on his services for 2026.

Signing with Boston would open up several defensive possibilities for Adames. Trevor Story is the incumbent shortstop and still an excellent defender, even if injuries have limited Story’s offense and playing time altogether over his three seasons with the Red Sox. Story is still owed $77.5MM through the 2027 season, and while he can opt out of his contract after the 2025 campaign, an opt-out doesn’t seem at all likely given the veteran infielder’s last few years.

The Sox used Story at second base in 2022 when Xander Bogaerts was still on the team, so Story could shift over to the keystone again to accommodate Adames. Or, perhaps the simplest answer is just to install Adames as the regular second baseman, hopefully finally ending the revolving door that has been Boston’s second base position in recent years.

Star prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could slot into the infield mix as early as 2025 if Campbell isn’t utilized as an outfielder. Once the Sox see what they have in the youngsters and need to find playing time, the Red Sox could them perhaps use Adames as a third baseman, bumping Rafael Devers into a first base or DH role. There are plenty of moving parts defensively, yet Adames would provide a clear boost to a lineup in sore need of a big right-handed bat.

Bo Bichette is coming off a miserable 2024 season, yet he remains Toronto’s everyday shortstop heading into his final year of team control. With Bichette in the fold, the Jays could use Adames at second or (more likely) third base, as the Blue Jays’ collective of in-house young infielders are almost all better suited defensively to the keystone than the hot corner.

If Bichette was to leave in free agency next winter, Toronto could explore simply moving Adames back to shortstop, thus addressing a major position in relatively easy fashion. Second and third base could then be occupied on a more permanent basis by one of the Blue Jays’ incumbent infielders, depending on which stood out during the 2025 season. Again, the offensive upgrade is obvious, since Adames, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and what the Jays hope will be a resurgent Bichette form a powerful lineup core on paper.

It is worth mentioning that Adames has played virtually his entire MLB career at the shortstop position, and he hasn’t played anywhere else on the diamond since making 10 appearances as a second baseman during his 2018 rookie season with the Rays. Moving to third base would therefore represent an entirely new challenge for the 29-year-old, which provides an interesting backdrop to the Astros’ pursuit.

Since Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve have the middle infield positions covered, Houston would therefore be looking at Adames as a third baseman if Alex Bregman signed elsewhere. Astros GM Dana Brown has described re-signing Bregman as “our biggest priority,” so while Bregman’s departure is far from a foregone conclusion, the Astros surely have some backup plans in mind if their longtime third baseman did leave.

Replacing Bregman with another high-priced free agent infielder would count as a bit of a surprise, given how Brown has said his club “may have to get a little bit creative” in managing the payroll this winter. The same applies to the Blue Jays, as Toronto already posted a team-record high payroll in 2024 with only a last-place finish in the AL East to show for it. The Red Sox have plenty of payroll room open, and while the team has shied away from major free agents in the last few years, Boston has already been linked to a wide range of top names (Juan Soto, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell), so the Sox seem to be signaling that they are ready to again shop in the high-rent district.

Since Adames is sure to reject the Brewers’ qualifying offer, a new team would face some sort of penalty for signing him. The Braves and Astros both exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, and thus signing Adames or any qualified free agent would cost the club $1MM in international bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft. It is a steep penalty to pay, though the draft hit could be slightly lessened in the form of a compensatory pick after the fourth round if either the teams’ own qualified free agents (Houston’s Bregman, Atlanta’s Fried) signed elsewhere.

The Blue Jays (just barely) and Red Sox stayed under the tax threshold this season, so both would have to give up $500K of international bonus pool money as well as their second-highest 2025 draft selection. The Sox also have a qualified free agent of their own in Nick Pivetta, and if Pivetta departed, Boston’s compensatory pick could come before the start of the third draft round.

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 11:07pm CDT

Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market. Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period. If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools. The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision. This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star. It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15. As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers. Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question. As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 9:06pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

Red Sox Interested In Blake Snell

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 5:46pm CDT

Upgrading the rotation is a known goal for the Red Sox this winter, with such trade targets and free agents as Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and old friend Nathan Eovaldi already reportedly on Boston’s radar in the offseason’s early stages. Blake Snell is another prominent name also under consideration, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (in a recent appearance on the Baseball Bar-B-Cast) said the Sox “are talking with” the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

The Red Sox were somewhat lightly linked to Snell’s market when he was a free agent last year, as while reports suggested the Sox had some level of interest in the left-hander, other pitchers like Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery were ahead of Snell on Boston’s wish list. As it turned out, the Sox didn’t end up landing any of the top-tier arms available on the market, even though Snell and Montgomery were both available deep into Spring Training, and Montgomery didn’t end up signing with the Diamondbacks until Opening Day.

At this point in the winter calendar, it is fair to assume the Red Sox are “in on” several pitchers to one degree or another, so it isn’t any surprise that they’ve reached out to Snell out of due diligence alone. That said, the two parties are a natural fit, which is likely why MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco each predicted Snell would indeed sign with Boston as part of our site’s top 50 free agent projections (Snell ranks fourth on our list, and is predicted to land a five-year, $160MM contract).

The Red Sox have largely eschewed making splashy signings in recent years, as the club has been more focused on reloading the minor league system and finding value signings than making a truly aggressive bid to contend. After three straight non-winning seasons, patience is running thin within the fanbase, and there is some increased pressure on the Sox front office to make a big-budget signing as a clear marker that the club wants to win. Landing a top pitcher like Snell would certainly count in this category, and give the Sox the ace-level pitcher the rotation so clearly needs.

Snell’s extended stay in free agency ended last winter when he joined the Giants in mid-March, and the abbreviated nature of his Spring Training prep initially seemed to be leading to a disastrous season. The left-hander’s first three months in San Francisco resulted in two injured-list stints and a 9.51 ERA over six starts and 23 2/3 innings, and yet as has so often been the case in Snell’s career, he only got better as the season developed. In the most extreme example yet of Snell’s second-half surges, he had a phenomenal 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts and 80 1/3 innings, once again re-establishing himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers. As such, Snell chose to exercise the opt-out clause in his two-year, $62MM deal with San Francisco, foregoing the $30MM owed to him in 2025 in order to chase a pricier long-term commitment.

This isn’t to say that some of the questions that clouded Snell’s market last winter have entirely disappeared. He was again hampered by injuries, and is now another year old, as he’ll turn 32 in December. However, one key difference between Snell’s free agent status from last year to this year is that he no longer has a qualifying offer attached to his services. Snell rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer last winter, and since the QO can only be issued to a player once in his career, a team is free to sign Snell without having to surrender any compensation.

Boston would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money as well as its second-highest pick in next year’s draft in order to sign a qualified free agent. It can be argued that Snell’s lack of QO status is a bigger deal for luxury tax payors, as since they face a stiffer penalty for signing one of the 13 free agents who were issued qualifying offers this offseason, a pitcher like Snell might have more appeal than a qualified pitcher like Fried or Corbin Burnes.

Still, the Red Sox would certainly love to avoid losing a draft pick if they can help it, plus the Sox could also be considering Snell and a qualified free agent. For instance, the Sox are interested in Juan Soto and Teoscar Hernandez among the position player class, in addition to their quest for rotation help. Nick Pivetta also appears likely to reject Boston’s qualifying offer, so the Sox would get a compensatory pick back if Pivetta signed elsewhere.

Mets Sign Donovan Walton To Minors Contract

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 4:31pm CDT

The Mets signed Donovan Walton to a minor league contract, according to the infielder’s MLB.com profile page. Walton elected to become a free agent at the start of November when the Giants outrighted him off their 40-man roster — since Walton had previously been outrighted in his career, he has the right to opt for free agency rather than accept another outright assignment.

The 30-year-old appeared in nine games after San Francisco selected Walton’s contract to the active roster in mid-September, which marked Walton’s first big league playing time since 2022. Walton broke into the majors with the Mariners in 2019 and played in 37 games over parts of four seasons before Seattle traded him to the Giants in May 2022. That season was cut short by a shoulder surgery that also kept him on the shelf for a good chunk of the 2023 campaign, as Walton spent the entirety of that season in the Giants’ minor league system.

If the 2023 season was just about getting back to good health for Walton, he looked sharper this season in hitting .306/.380/.441 over 387 plate appearances with Triple-A Sacramento. This more or less matches his .287/.370/.454 slash line across 975 career PA at the Triple-A level, but Walton hasn’t been able to carry that production into the Show, as he has hit only .174/.227/.305 in 205 PA with the Mariners and Giants.

Walton has mostly split his time between the two middle infield positions, though he has some experience as a third baseman and left fielder. Though his lack of offense limits his ceiling, Walton is a left-handed hitter who can play multiple positions, making him an interesting option for teams looking to fill out a roster. The Mets can give Walton a look during Spring Training and see what he can bring to the table as a depth piece for either the big league squad or at Triple-A.

Orioles Talking To “High-End” Free Agent Pitchers; Camden Yards’ Left Field Dimensions To Be Changed

By Mark Polishuk | November 15, 2024 at 11:37pm CDT

Orioles general manager Mike Elias took part in a video call with reporters (including the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) today, sharing a few guarded details about the club’s offseason pursuits and a major development for Camden Yards’ outfield dimensions. Elias revealed that the ballpark will have a new left field wall that will be significantly shorter and closer to home plate than the wall that has been in place for the last three seasons.

The old wall will remain in place, stretching from the 373-foot mark in the left field crevice and extending to the Orioles’ bullpen. However, an unoccupied open area will now sit between the wall and the new left field wall, which Elias said will be closer to home plate by “as much as 20 feet; in others, it’ll be more like 11 feet and as little as nine.” The deepest distance from home plate to the left-center area of the old wall was 398 feet, but that distance will now be a more manageable 376 feet. The old wall was also 13 feet high, whereas the new wall’s height will range from 6’11” at its shortest to nine feet tall at its highest.

“Our hope is, by pulling the dimensions in a little bit…that we will be able to get closer to what our initial goal was: a neutral playing environment that assists a balanced style of play at a park that was overly homer-friendly prior to our changes in 2022. It is now a little overly skewed given what we did back then,” Elias said.

Heightening the wall back in 2022 happened to coincide with a big improvement in the Orioles’ play, as the team has since reeled off three straight winning seasons (and two playoff appearances) due to a marked upgrade in pitching performance. Baltimore’s 3.94 team ERA ranks tenth in baseball over the last three seasons, and the pitching staff has allowed the ninth-fewest homers (523) of any club in that same span.

According to Statcast’s Park Factor metric, righty batters had more trouble hitting homers at Camden Yards than at almost any other ballpark, save for Cleveland’s Progressive Field and Pittsburgh’s PNC Park. Unfortunately, this extended to the Orioles’ own batters as well as opposing hitters. As Rill breaks down the numbers, the Orioles lost more home runs (72) than opponents (65) did at Camden Yards since Opening Day 2022.

“I think it’ll be easier for right-handed hitters to produce power numbers at this park, there’s no question about it. We wanted, and we want, a park that is neutral, tilting toward pitcher friendliness,” Elias said. “But, the disparities between the two sides of the park were not the intent, and it had created some dramatic differences and it affected player personnel thought and outcomes in a way that we weren’t anticipating when we made the move.”

Three years of data has now convinced Elias that the past renovations “overcorrected” the initial problem of Camden Yards being too homer-friendly. Elias made a point of noting that the dimensions weren’t being changed to make it easier for the O’s to attract free agent hitters (particularly right-handed bats), as the GM said that the 2022 alterations weren’t intended as a “permanent” fix in the first place.

“In many ways this may make the park less attractive for pitchers, which is one of the reasons that I initially made this change,” Elias said.

The timing is interesting, as the rotation is certainly a key need for the Orioles this winter. Corbin Burnes is a free agent and the top arm available on the open market (in the view of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list and many other pundits), leaving Baltimore with a projected top four of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suarez in the starting five. Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers are among the candidates vying for the fifth starters’ job at the moment and Kyle Bradish or Tyler Wells could emerge when or if they recover from UCL surgeries at some point in 2025, but there’s no doubt that this pitching staff could use some reinforcement.

To this end, Elias said the Orioles are considering “the whole spectrum” of pitching upgrades. “If you’re running the team optimally….you’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open. That involves high-end free agent deals over many years. We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”

It has been widely expected that the O’s have a higher spending capacity under new owner David Rubenstein than in past years when the Angelos family was controlling the team. Elias gave “credit [to] the ownership change for putting us in the position to” at least check in at every level of the market, though he again stressed that more payroll flexibility doesn’t mean the Orioles are going to suddenly “spend money indiscriminately this offseason come hell or high water.”

Baltimore has already been linked to Max Fried in early free agent pursuits, as well as interest in White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet on the trade front. It can be assumed that the Orioles will consider a reunion with Burnes, even if that would likely be the priciest possible way to add to the rotation. Since Burnes’ departure would recoup the Orioles a compensatory draft pick, the team could opt to let Burnes walk to gain that draft capital, thus perhaps making the O’s more comfortable about surrendering picks if they signed a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent of their own.

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