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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After three losing seasons, the Blue Jays both topped the .500 mark and returned to the playoffs in 2020.  Now that the corner has seemingly been turned on the team’s rebuild, could a full-fledged push towards contention be on the way?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

A 32-28 record under the wholly unique circumstances of the 2020 season doesn’t exactly mean that the Jays can suddenly start thinking about the World Series.  That said, this year’s results were definitely a positive development, and indicative of this roster’s potential — so much of the team’s young core is either still early in their MLB careers or not even in the majors yet, but the Blue Jays have already shown that they’re able to win.

It makes for a potentially fascinating offseason in Toronto, especially considering that the Jays might be one of the few teams who could have the ability to spend.  More will be known on this front once Jays management meets with the Rogers Communications ownership group for a budget meeting later this month, but on paper, the Blue Jays would seem to have some extra payroll capacity.  The team has roughly $81.25MM in committed salary for 2021, and less than $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, with only three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) under contract beyond the coming season.

Since the Jays came into 2020 with a pre-pandemic payroll of around $93.2MM, there is some room for GM Ross Atkins to maneuver even if ownership doesn’t okay much or any new spending.  The club already carved out some extra space by declining Chase Anderson’s $9.5MM club option, and Travis Shaw’s projected arbitration salary makes him a non-tender candidate given his lack of production last season.

Is another Ryu-esque signing in the cards?  Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility, telling reporters last month that “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  While Toronto is far from being the proverbial “one player away” from a championship, it seems plausible that the Jays could try to duplicate their 2019-20 offseason by making one big-ticket acquisition and then a few other, more moderately-priced pickups.

Pitching is the most obvious need for a club whose rotation was in flux for much of the season.  Ryu and Tanner Roark were the only real constants, though Roark struggled in his first season in Toronto and now figures to slot into the back of the rotation.  Ross Stripling also didn’t pitch well as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, though after years of being shifted in and out of the Los Angeles rotation, Stripling should get a clear-cut chance at being a full-time starting pitcher in 2021.  Nate Pearson battled some elbow problems and tossed only 18 innings in his rookie season, so while his prospect ceiling is very high, he can’t yet be counted upon as a front-of-the-rotation type.

Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, and other young arms are on hand to compete for a starting job or provide depth, but adding certainly one and potentially two experienced starters would go a long way towards solidifying the starting staff.  Reunions with free agents Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker, Anderson, and Robbie Ray will be considered, with Walker likely to receive the most attention from other teams given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays after the trade deadline.

Walker did speak quite highly of his time with the Jays, noting that “they did such a great job of making us comfortable in Buffalo.”  This could be an underrated factor in the team’s offseason planning, as pitchers like Walker or the other Jays free agents could be prioritized since they’re already familiar with conditions at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.  A decision on whether or not the Blue Jays will be able to play in Toronto in 2021 likely won’t be known for at least a few months, so external free agents might be wary of potentially spending a year at a hitter-friendly minor league ballpark.

Then again, that might be just the kind of thing that would appeal to an unconventional free agent like Trevor Bauer.  Atkins and Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro were part of the Cleveland front office that brought Bauer to the Indians back in December 2012, and while landing Bauer would be much more costly this time around, Bauer’s stated openness to shorter-term or even one-year contracts could make him a particular fit for the Jays.  Such a contract would keep Bauer in the fold during the window of Ryu’s prime and still give the Blue Jays future payroll flexibility, while also allowing more time for Pearson, Kay, or Simeon Woods Richardson to develop.

Whether the Blue Jays are prepared to make quite that big a splash in pursuing Bauer remains to be seen, though given how aggressively the team went after pitching last offseason, it can’t be ruled out.  If the Jays are allowed to stretch their payroll, that gives them a leg up on virtually every other team in baseball in this post-pandemic offseason, and puts Toronto in play for conceivably any free agent.  A case can be made for the Jays to pursue the likes of Bauer, J.T. Realmuto or (as MLBTR did in our Top 50 Free Agents list) DJ LeMahieu, or perhaps rather than shop in the upper tier of the market, the Blue Jays could spread their money around in the second tier.  If Bauer is to command upwards of $30MM in average annual value, that $30MM+ could also cover, say, Walker and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation and Justin Turner at third base.

Besides free agents, the Jays could also look to acquire talent in a trade, especially if rival teams are more willing to unload quality players in the name of cost-cutting.  Beyond just the obvious Cleveland connection with Shapiro and Atkins, Francisco Lindor is a player that would make some sense for the Jays, particularly since they have looked into acquiring him in the past.  The Indians would certainly have a high asking price for even one year of Lindor, yet considering salary concerns just led the Tribe to cut ties with a valuable player in Brad Hand, getting Lindor’s salary off the books might be a bigger concern for Cleveland than fully maximizing a trade return.

Installing Lindor at shortstop for a year also solves the third base question, assuming Shaw is non-tendered — Bo Bichette would be moved off shortstop to play either third or second base, with Cavan Biggio handling the other position.  Acquiring a position player on a shorter-term deal might be the optimal move for a Jays team that has Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans in the prospect pipeline, and seems mostly set around the diamond in the present.  The core of Gurriel, Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, Danny Jansen behind the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez as the first base/DH duo, Bichette at shortstop and Biggio at second base (or multiple positions) is solid from an offensive standpoint, but the Jays were one of the league’s weaker defensive teams.

Inserting a premium defender like Andrelton Simmons or Kolten Wong into the one open infield spot would certainly help in this regard, though if the Blue Jays wanted to go bigger, they could explore trading Grichuk or Tellez.  Such moves would allow for the acquisition of a more traditional center fielder to patrol the outfield, or free up the DH spot so the Jays could keep some of their lesser defenders in the lineup.

As they did last offseason, it seems likely that the Jays will continue to target multi-position players, in order to upgrade a bench that didn’t provide much help when injuries arose during the season.  Biggio is developing nicely as a super-utilityman, but getting another reliable player who can play several positions could be another path towards helping the defense, at least in a late-game capacity.

The Jays haven’t traditionally spent much on relief pitching under Atkins, and that strategy might continue this winter even though the bullpen didn’t post good numbers in 2020.  Toronto relievers were asked to throw a lot of innings in support of the shaky rotation, so things could stabilize simply with a more normal workload, plus several good young arms (i.e. Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather) delivered strong results.

It’s possible the Jays don’t have a traditional closer at all next season, or if they do, Romano or Rafael Dolis could get more consideration than an external pitcher.  But since the Jays will presumably look to add at least one veteran reliever, they could check into pitchers with past closing experience.  As the Indians’ decision to decline Hand’s option might indicate, this could be a particularly volatile market for relief pitching, leaving the Blue Jays with many opportunities to acquire a significant bullpen piece at perhaps something of a bargain price.

There is no shortage of possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, making a team to watch both this winter and in 2021, when the young cornerstones and (presumably) some new additions could gather to again make the Jays postseason factors.

Report: Five Likely Finalists In Red Sox Managerial Search

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Of the many names interviewed for the Red Sox managerial vacancy, the field seems to have been narrowed to five.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that the likely list of finalists includes Red Sox manager Alex Cora, Marlins bench coach James Rowson, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and a new candidate to the race — former big league outfielder Sam Fuld, currently the Phillies’ director of integrative baseball performance.

Fuld has spent the last three years in Philadelphia’s front office, and he has often been mentioned as a future manager.  Heyman’s report would suggest that Fuld has interviewed for the Boston job, which seems like an obvious step except for the fact that Fuld has declined multiple opportunities to interview for managerial positions in the past.  Just last winter, for instance, Fuld passed on talking with the Pirates, Cubs, and Mets.

With baseball’s trend towards hiring younger managers who are only recently retired from their playing days, Fuld checks both boxes — he turns 39 later this month and officially retired in 2017.  He doesn’t have any official coaching or managing experience, but Fuld does have something of a unique skillset in his role as a bridge between the Phils’ analytics department.  Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom also has a past relationship with Fuld, as Bloom was working in the Rays’ front office when Fuld played with Tampa Bay from 2011-13.

Reports from Saturday indicated that the Red Sox had interviewed both Kelly and Mendoza a second time, and of course there has been speculation over Cora’s potential return basically since the moment he was fired in January.  Cora’s one-year suspension for his role in the Astros sign-stealing scandal was officially up after the World Series, and the Sox wasted little time in getting in touch with their former skipper.

Dodgers Outright Terrance Gore

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The Dodgers have outrighted outfielder Terrance Gore to Triple-A, according to the MLB.com transactions page.  This is the second time Gore has been removed from the 40-man roster this season, having previously been outrighted back in August.

Gore signed a minor league deal with L.A. back in February and made the team’s Opening Day roster, but appeared in only two games before being designated for assignment.  There was some speculation that the Dodgers could use Gore as a pinch-running specialist during the playoffs (as the Royals did with Gore in both 2014 and 2015), but he was never included on a postseason roster.

Gore has now appeared in parts of seven Major League seasons, primarily as a pinch-runner and late-game defensive substitute.  Through 102 career games with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Royals, Gore has only 77 plate appearances, 58 of them coming with Kansas City in 2019.

Diamondbacks Exercise Merrill Kelly’s Club Option

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The Diamondbacks have exercised their $4.25MM club option on right-hander Merrill Kelly for the 2021 season, as per a team press release.  Kelly and fellow right-handers Corbin Martin and Jeremy Beasley were all reinstated from the injured list and placed on Arizona’s 40-man roster, bringing the team’s total to 38 of 40 players.

Kelly’s original two-year, $5.5MM contract with the D’Backs contained club options for both the 2021 and 2022 seasons, with this year’s option containing a $500K buyout and the $5.25MM option for 2022 containing no buyout.  The Snakes therefore had a $3.75MM choice to make on Kelly, which wasn’t necessarily a sure thing given how we’ve already seen several notable players cut loose on option decisions in this young offseason, and Kelly is a health question mark going into 2021.

After posting a 2.59 ERA, 5.80 K/BB rate, and 8.3 K/9 over 31 1/3 innings this season, Kelly’s strong start was cut short after he required surgery to address a blood clot in his shoulder.  A couple of weeks after that procedure, Kelly then underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.  While Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen was optimistic that Kelly would be ready to go for Spring Training, past cases of TOS procedures have had varying timelines.  And, of even more concern to Kelly and the D’Backs, several pitchers who have undergone thoracic outlet syndrome surgeries were unable to regain their past form on the mound.

Still, there was obviously enough comfort on the front office’s part to take the $3.75MM risk that Kelly will be recovered enough to contribute.  The D’Backs are facing a likely reduction in payroll as a response to lower revenues, but in a vacuum, $3.75MM is a very reasonable price for a pitcher who has shown that he can be a solid member of a rotation.

Originally an eighth-round pick for the Rays in the 2010 draft, Kelly spent five years in the minors before heading to South Korea to pitch with SK Wyverns of the KBO League.  He posted impressive numbers and established himself as a workhorse starter, doing well enough to land that multi-year contract from Arizona upon his return to North American baseball.  Kelly acquitted himself well in his first taste of the big leagues, with a 4.42 ERA, 2.77 K/BB rate, and 7.8 K/9 over 183 1/3 innings for the D’Backs in 2019.

4 More Candidates Interview For Angels’ GM Job

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After several weeks of little news about the Angels’ search for a new general manager, several names have emerged as candidate for the position.  Four new names join that already lengthy list, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has spoken with the team, and longtime Royals executives Gene Watson, Scott Sharp, and J.J. Picollo were also part of the Halos’ first round of interviews, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).

Amaro is the only one of this quartet who has previously run a front office, as his stint as the Phillies’ GM from 2009-15 was highlighted by the National League pennant in 2009 and three NL East titles.  All of that success came in Amaro’s first three seasons, however, largely due to the core of talent built by Amaro’s predecessor Pat Gillick (though as assistant GM, Amaro also had a hand in that roster’s creation).  2011 was still the last time Philadelphia posted a winning record, as their 2008 championship core aged and Amaro wasn’t able to reinforce the team well enough to keep it in contention.

Since leaving the Phils, Amaro moved not to another front office job but rather coaching positions with the Red Sox and Mets.  After the 2018 season, he worked as an advisor to Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, and spent 2020 as a broadcaster for Phillies games.  Amaro does have some memorable ties to the Angels, as he was drafted by the team back in 1987 and he spent the first of his eight MLB seasons in a Halos uniform.

Watson, Sharp, and Picollo have all been linked to other general manager openings in the past.  Watson interviewed with the Astros last winter, Sharp was a candidate with the Giants and Mets after the 2018 season, and Picollo has been considered for front office jobs with the Twins, Diamondbacks, and Phillies.  In fact, Picollo was one of the favorites to replace Amaro as the Phillies’ GM back in 2015 before Matt Klentak was hired, and Picollo’s name has again surfaced as a possibility in Philadelphia now that Klentak is no longer in the position.

According to Rosenthal, Sharp could be the Angels’ preferred choice among the three Kansas City choices.  Sharp, Picollo and Watson have all been with the Royals since 2006, working in various positions while moving up the ladder to their current positions as assistant GM (Sharp and Picollo) and senior director of pro scouting/special assistant (Watson).

Orioles Exercise Jose Iglesias’ Club Option

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The Orioles announced that they have exercised their $3.5MM club option on Jose Iglesias’ services for the 2021 season.  (MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko broke the news via Twitter earlier this morning.)  It was a $3MM decision for Baltimore, as the shortstop would have otherwise received a $500K buyout had the option been declined.

Iglesias signed a one-year contract last winter that paid him $3MM in guaranteed money (which became just shy of $926K due to the reduced schedule) for 2020, and included the option for 2021.  Traditionally a glove-first player and a strong defensive shortstop, Iglesias ended up contributing in a much different manner than the O’s probably expected, as Iglesias exploded to hit .373/.400/.556 over 150 plate appearances.  A whopping .407 BABIP was a big contributor to this performance, as Iglesias was only a .273/.315/.371 hitter in 2915 career PA prior to 2020.

While Iglesias still provided solid glovework, he played less shortstop than expected, as quad problems led to a short injured list stint and quite a bit of DH time.  Needless to say, the Orioles would love a continuation of Iglesias’ breakout at the plate, but even if a “normal” Iglesias season in 2021 is more probable, the $3MM decision still seemed like a pretty straight-forward call.

With Iglesias now officially back in the fold, the Orioles can turn their attention to other potential infield moves, as possibly upgrading second and third base beyond Hanser Alberto and Rio Ruiz.  Former Gold Glover Yolmer Sanchez was claimed off waivers from the White Sox on Friday, leading to speculation that Alberto could be a non-tender candidate.

J.D. Martinez Will Not Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract

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As expected, J.D. Martinez will not enact the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal signed in February 2018 contained opt-outs after both last season and this season, and with Martinez staying put, he is slated to earn $19.375MM in each of the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Martinez already suggested near the end of the season that he wouldn’t be leaving his deal, so today’s news is no surprise.  After six years as one of the sport’s better batters, Martinez struggled badly in 2020, hitting only .213/.291/.389 with seven home runs over 237 plate appearances.  In an offseason with limited dollars to be spent anywhere around baseball, teams would have been far more focused on Martinez’s 2020 performance, his age (33), and his mostly DH-only status than his past track record, so it’s hard to imagine Martinez would have topped two years and $38.75MM in free agency.

For now, the question might be what the Red Sox can expect from Martinez going forward.  The slugger has been vocal about how his regular routine (everything from offseason work to in-game preparations such as watching video) was altered by the pandemic and COVID-19 protocols.  Since the 2021 season certainly looks like normal operations won’t revert back to a pre-2020 state, it will be up to Martinez to figure out new adjustments to get himself back on track at the plate.

Angels Among Teams Interested In Kolten Wong

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Kolten Wong officially became a free agent earlier this week when the Cardinals declined their $12.5MM club option on the second baseman, and it hasn’t taken long for the former Gold Glover to draw attention.  Multiple teams have already been in contact with Wong, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, with the Angels named as one of the interested parties.

With Andrelton Simmons hitting free agency, the Angels are known to be looking at middle infield help, with David Fletcher’s ability to play either second base or shortstop allowing Los Angeles to explore options at either position.  (For example, Didi Gregorius is another reported target.)  Looking at the list of available free agent middle infielders, second base is the deeper of the two positions, and since the 2021-22 shortstop class is loaded with stars, the Angels could prefer to let Fletcher handle shortstop for a year and then explore signing a longer-term answer.

Or, if it will take a multi-year deal to sign Wong, the Halos could be content with Wong and Fletcher as their middle infield combo for the next couple of seasons.  Wong would essentially be the second base version of Simmons — a roughly league-average hitter who provides elite defense, with the bonuses of Wong being a year younger than Simmons, a better baserunner and with less of a recent injury history.  Since the Halos have mostly a right-handed hitting lineup, Wong’s left-handed bat would also add a bit of balance.

The Angels are one of many teams looking for second base help this winter, so it isn’t surprising that Wong’s market is already active.  The Phillies, Indians, Rockies, Yankees, Athletics, Tigers, and Cubs are just a few teams that could fit as potential suitors, plus teams like the Nationals or Blue Jays could be fits based on how other in-house options are shuffled around the infield.

Tommy Kahnle Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Tommy Kahnle declined an outright assignment from the Yankees and instead chose to become a free agent, the team announced.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in August, Kahnle will miss most and quite possibly all of the 2021 season, making him a logical non-tender candidate.  Headed into his third trip through the arbitration process, Kahnle was projected to earn $2.7MM, or a minimal raise on his $2.65MM salary from 2020 given that he pitched a single inning this season.

In electing to become a free agent, Kahnle will now look for a change of scenery in a new organization and see if he can land a two-year commitment — as per the usual model for TJ recovery cases, Kahnle would earn a minimum salary in the first year of the contract and then a larger salary in the second year when he is expected to actually pitch.  Finding such a contract in this troubled free agent market could be a challenge, though Kahnle has delivered enough results on the mound that a club might be convinced to take what should still be a relatively inexpensive plunge.

The 31-year-old righty has a 3.82 ERA, 2.61 K/BB rate, 46.6% grounder rate, and 11.2 K/9 over 227 2/3 career relief innings with the Yankees, White Sox, and Rockies.  Though injuries plagued him in 2018, Kahnle has shown that he can be a bullpen workhorse when healthy, tossing 62 2/3 innings over 69 appearances in 2017 and 61 1/3 innings over 72 appearances in 2019.

Cubs Decline Daniel Descalso’s Option

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The Cubs have declined their $3.5MM club option on infielder Daniel Descalso for the 2021 season, the team announced.  Descalso will instead receive a $1MM buyout and head into free agency.

Descalso was inked to a two-year, $5MM contract in December 2018 with the expectation that he would provide Chicago with multi-positional depth and some of the left-handed hitting pop he displayed with the Diamondbacks during the 2018 season.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Descalso hit only .173/.271/.250 over 194 plate appearances in 2019 and missed all of 2020 recovering due to an ankle injury.

A veteran of 10 big league seasons, the 34-year-old Descalso will surely have to settle for a minor league contract if he catches on with another team this winter.  A career .235/.320/.362 hitter over 2893 career PA with the Cubs, D’Backs, Rockies, and Cardinals, Descalso has played mostly second base and third base in recent years, with some other experience as a first baseman, shortstop, and left fielder on his resume.

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